Bloomberg / Des Moines Register Iowa poll
Content
BLOOMBERG POLITICS/THE DES MOINES REGISTER IOWA POLL
SELZER & COMPANY
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
Compared to 437 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
Margin of error ± 4.7 percentage points for Democrats
Study #2118
May 25-29, 2015
4,161 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
Methodology
May 30 (Bloomberg) — The Iowa Poll, conducted May 25-29 for Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register by
Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, is based on telephone interviews with 402 registered Iowa voters who say they
definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 437 registered voters who say they definitely or
probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.
Interviewers contacted 4,161 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by
telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter
registration list.
Questions based on the subsample of 437 likely Democratic caucus attendees have a maximum margin of error of plus or
minus 4.7 percentage points, and questions based on the subsample of 402 likely Republican caucus attendees have a
maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the
same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown
here by more than plus or minus 4.7 or 4.9 percentage points, respectively. Results based on smaller samples of
respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register is prohibited.
Poll Questions
BASED ON REPUBLICAN CAUCUSGOERS
PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.
Now, I’m going to mention some people talked about as possible candidates for the Republican nomination for
president. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very
unfavorable. If you don’t know enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not
sure.” Rotate list.)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
Fav
Unf
Very
Favorable
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
43
45
11
32
27
18
13
46
50
43
28
17
9
29
41
25
19
18
9
11
22
Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon from
Maryland
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
56
15
24
32
10
5
29
50
41
12
8
28
24
22
17
9
4
3
4
38
51
Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
28
58
6
21
39
19
14
36
39
54
45
7
8
29
31
32
29
22
16
10
16
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
59
20
20
39
13
7
21
58
52
21
18
22
20
36
32
14
11
7
7
21
30
May-15
41
19
13
27
12
8
40
Jan-15
15
19
4
11
13
6
66
May-15
22
38
4
19
23
15
40
Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida
Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas
Carly Fiorina, former CEO of HewlettPackard and candidate for the U.S. Senate
in California
F.
Lindsey Graham, U.S. senator from
South Carolina
G.
Mike Huckabee, former governor of
Arkansas
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
61
30
21
40
21
9
9
66
59
28
30
28
23
38
36
21
23
7
7
6
11
Bobby Jindal, governor of Louisiana
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
43
19
15
28
15
4
38
39
41
20
14
10
12
29
29
15
11
5
3
41
45
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
25
16
7
18
11
4
59
22
17
14
7
7
3
15
14
10
5
4
2
64
76
May-15
10
35
1
9
22
13
55
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
55
34
16
39
24
10
11
64
59
25
24
25
21
39
38
18
18
7
6
11
17
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
59
29
14
45
21
8
13
64
64
26
23
20
23
44
41
20
17
6
6
10
13
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
60
17
20
40
12
5
23
57
54
20
16
16
14
41
40
15
12
5
4
23
30
Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from
Pennsylvania
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
56
28
18
38
19
9
16
57
52
30
30
16
14
41
38
22
20
8
10
13
18
Donald Trump, businessman and
television personality
May-15
Jan-15
27
63
7
20
31
33
10
26
68
4
22
36
32
6
Scott Walker, governor of Wisconsin
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
66
11
31
35
5
6
23
60
49
12
10
32
20
28
29
6
7
6
3
28
41
H.
I.
John Kasich, governor of Ohio
J.
George Pataki, former governor of New
York
K.
Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky
L.
M.
N.
O.
P.
Rick Perry, former governor of Texas
Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida
Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If “Uncommitted” or Not sure in first choice, code second choice as
No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
First
Second
Combined
Jeb Bush
9
7
16
Ben Carson
10
5
15
Chris Christie
4
4
8
Ted Cruz
5
8
13
Carly Fiorina
2
3
5
Lindsey Graham
1
1
2*
Mike Huckabee
9
8
17*
Bobby Jindal
1
4
5
John Kasich
2
1
3
George Pataki
1
1
Rand Paul
10
5
15
Rick Perry
3
6
9
Marco Rubio
6
12
18
Rick Santorum
6
6
12
Donald Trump
4
2
6
Scott Walker
17
10
27
“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)
4
2
Not sure
7
5
No first choice
n/a
11
*“Combined” does not match the following ever/never support question for certain candidates due to rounding.
See next page for tracking.
Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If “Uncommitted” or Not sure in first choice, code second choice as
No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
First
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Scott Walker
“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)
Not sure
No first choice
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
May-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Second
Combined
9
7
16
8
4
7
8
15
12
10
5
15
9
11
10
7
19
18
4
4
8
4
6
3
5
7
11
5
8
13
5
7
6
6
11
13
2
3
5
1
1
2
1
9
1
8
2*
17*
10
9
7
8
17
17
1
4
5
2
1
2
4
4
5
2
1
3
1
1
1
-
2
1
10
1
5
1
15
14
10
9
8
23
18
3
6
9
3
7
5
6
8
13
6
12
18
3
2
8
3
11
5
6
6
12
4
3
6
5
10
8
4
2
6
1
1
2
17
10
27
15
4
10
5
25
9
4
2
2
1
1
-
7
5
5
6
n/a
11
n/a
n/a
7
10
*“Combined” does not match the following ever/never support question for certain candidates due to rounding.
(Ask only for each candidate NOT answered in as first or second in horserace.] I’m going to mention the
candidates who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the
person for president or would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same
rotation as horserace question. If selected as first or second choice in horserace, code AC=4 and do not ask.)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
G.
H.
I.
J.
K.
L.
M.
N.
O.
P.
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Scott Walker
Ever
Never
Not sure
1st or 2nd
choice in
horserace
38
47
34
49
38
29
51
45
29
20
45
54
49
51
28
41
35
18
45
21
27
43
24
25
28
41
30
27
18
26
58
15
10
20
13
18
30
25
9
25
40
38
10
10
15
11
8
17
16
15
8
13
5
3
16
5
3
1
15
9
18
12
6
27
For each of the following descriptions of Carly Fiorina, please tell me if this is something that is important to
you as you decide whether to support her or not. Just answer yes or no. (Rotate list.)
Not
Important important
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
G.
H.
She has been the CEO of a Fortune 500 company, Hewlett-Packard
She is a Washington outsider
As CEO, she outsourced American jobs overseas
She is the only woman in the Republican field
She has never held elected office
She has taken on Hillary Clinton aggressively
As CEO, she laid off 30,000 employees
She was fired by Hewlett-Packard
65
59
48
26
39
72
44
27
33
38
49
71
59
26
52
70
Not
Sure
2
3
3
3
2
2
4
3
Critics say President Obama was a first-term senator with no executive experience before he took office, and
that explains many of the problems he has faced. I’m going to mention Republican candidates who are firstterm senators who have no executive experience. For each, tell me if that makes you less likely to support any
of them in the nominating race or if it makes no difference in your support. (Rotate list.)
Less likely to
support
A.
B.
C.
Ted Cruz
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
19
22
16
No
difference
76
72
79
Not
sure
5
5
5
SELZER & COMPANY
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
Compared to 437 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
Margin of error ± 4.7 percentage points for Democrats
Study #2118
May 25-29, 2015
4,161 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
Methodology
May 30 (Bloomberg) — The Iowa Poll, conducted May 25-29 for Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register by
Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, is based on telephone interviews with 402 registered Iowa voters who say they
definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 437 registered voters who say they definitely or
probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.
Interviewers contacted 4,161 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by
telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter
registration list.
Questions based on the subsample of 437 likely Democratic caucus attendees have a maximum margin of error of plus or
minus 4.7 percentage points, and questions based on the subsample of 402 likely Republican caucus attendees have a
maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the
same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown
here by more than plus or minus 4.7 or 4.9 percentage points, respectively. Results based on smaller samples of
respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register is prohibited.
Poll Questions
BASED ON REPUBLICAN CAUCUSGOERS
PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.
Now, I’m going to mention some people talked about as possible candidates for the Republican nomination for
president. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very
unfavorable. If you don’t know enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not
sure.” Rotate list.)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
Fav
Unf
Very
Favorable
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
43
45
11
32
27
18
13
46
50
43
28
17
9
29
41
25
19
18
9
11
22
Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon from
Maryland
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
56
15
24
32
10
5
29
50
41
12
8
28
24
22
17
9
4
3
4
38
51
Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
28
58
6
21
39
19
14
36
39
54
45
7
8
29
31
32
29
22
16
10
16
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
59
20
20
39
13
7
21
58
52
21
18
22
20
36
32
14
11
7
7
21
30
May-15
41
19
13
27
12
8
40
Jan-15
15
19
4
11
13
6
66
May-15
22
38
4
19
23
15
40
Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida
Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas
Carly Fiorina, former CEO of HewlettPackard and candidate for the U.S. Senate
in California
F.
Lindsey Graham, U.S. senator from
South Carolina
G.
Mike Huckabee, former governor of
Arkansas
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
61
30
21
40
21
9
9
66
59
28
30
28
23
38
36
21
23
7
7
6
11
Bobby Jindal, governor of Louisiana
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
43
19
15
28
15
4
38
39
41
20
14
10
12
29
29
15
11
5
3
41
45
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
25
16
7
18
11
4
59
22
17
14
7
7
3
15
14
10
5
4
2
64
76
May-15
10
35
1
9
22
13
55
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
55
34
16
39
24
10
11
64
59
25
24
25
21
39
38
18
18
7
6
11
17
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
59
29
14
45
21
8
13
64
64
26
23
20
23
44
41
20
17
6
6
10
13
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
60
17
20
40
12
5
23
57
54
20
16
16
14
41
40
15
12
5
4
23
30
Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from
Pennsylvania
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
56
28
18
38
19
9
16
57
52
30
30
16
14
41
38
22
20
8
10
13
18
Donald Trump, businessman and
television personality
May-15
Jan-15
27
63
7
20
31
33
10
26
68
4
22
36
32
6
Scott Walker, governor of Wisconsin
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
66
11
31
35
5
6
23
60
49
12
10
32
20
28
29
6
7
6
3
28
41
H.
I.
John Kasich, governor of Ohio
J.
George Pataki, former governor of New
York
K.
Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky
L.
M.
N.
O.
P.
Rick Perry, former governor of Texas
Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida
Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If “Uncommitted” or Not sure in first choice, code second choice as
No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
First
Second
Combined
Jeb Bush
9
7
16
Ben Carson
10
5
15
Chris Christie
4
4
8
Ted Cruz
5
8
13
Carly Fiorina
2
3
5
Lindsey Graham
1
1
2*
Mike Huckabee
9
8
17*
Bobby Jindal
1
4
5
John Kasich
2
1
3
George Pataki
1
1
Rand Paul
10
5
15
Rick Perry
3
6
9
Marco Rubio
6
12
18
Rick Santorum
6
6
12
Donald Trump
4
2
6
Scott Walker
17
10
27
“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)
4
2
Not sure
7
5
No first choice
n/a
11
*“Combined” does not match the following ever/never support question for certain candidates due to rounding.
See next page for tracking.
Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If “Uncommitted” or Not sure in first choice, code second choice as
No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
First
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Scott Walker
“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)
Not sure
No first choice
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
May-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Second
Combined
9
7
16
8
4
7
8
15
12
10
5
15
9
11
10
7
19
18
4
4
8
4
6
3
5
7
11
5
8
13
5
7
6
6
11
13
2
3
5
1
1
2
1
9
1
8
2*
17*
10
9
7
8
17
17
1
4
5
2
1
2
4
4
5
2
1
3
1
1
1
-
2
1
10
1
5
1
15
14
10
9
8
23
18
3
6
9
3
7
5
6
8
13
6
12
18
3
2
8
3
11
5
6
6
12
4
3
6
5
10
8
4
2
6
1
1
2
17
10
27
15
4
10
5
25
9
4
2
2
1
1
-
7
5
5
6
n/a
11
n/a
n/a
7
10
*“Combined” does not match the following ever/never support question for certain candidates due to rounding.
(Ask only for each candidate NOT answered in as first or second in horserace.] I’m going to mention the
candidates who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the
person for president or would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same
rotation as horserace question. If selected as first or second choice in horserace, code AC=4 and do not ask.)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
G.
H.
I.
J.
K.
L.
M.
N.
O.
P.
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Scott Walker
Ever
Never
Not sure
1st or 2nd
choice in
horserace
38
47
34
49
38
29
51
45
29
20
45
54
49
51
28
41
35
18
45
21
27
43
24
25
28
41
30
27
18
26
58
15
10
20
13
18
30
25
9
25
40
38
10
10
15
11
8
17
16
15
8
13
5
3
16
5
3
1
15
9
18
12
6
27
For each of the following descriptions of Carly Fiorina, please tell me if this is something that is important to
you as you decide whether to support her or not. Just answer yes or no. (Rotate list.)
Not
Important important
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
G.
H.
She has been the CEO of a Fortune 500 company, Hewlett-Packard
She is a Washington outsider
As CEO, she outsourced American jobs overseas
She is the only woman in the Republican field
She has never held elected office
She has taken on Hillary Clinton aggressively
As CEO, she laid off 30,000 employees
She was fired by Hewlett-Packard
65
59
48
26
39
72
44
27
33
38
49
71
59
26
52
70
Not
Sure
2
3
3
3
2
2
4
3
Critics say President Obama was a first-term senator with no executive experience before he took office, and
that explains many of the problems he has faced. I’m going to mention Republican candidates who are firstterm senators who have no executive experience. For each, tell me if that makes you less likely to support any
of them in the nominating race or if it makes no difference in your support. (Rotate list.)
Less likely to
support
A.
B.
C.
Ted Cruz
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
19
22
16
No
difference
76
72
79
Not
sure
5
5
5
