Climate

Climate Change
• It is the long term change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods of
time
• Though it has been happening naturally for millions of years, in recent years it has
accelerated due to anthropogenic causes and has been causing global warming.
• UNFCCC defines climate change as – “a change of climate which is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which
is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”
Global Warming
• An increase in the average temperature of Earth’s near surface air and oceans since the mid-
20
th
century
• 4
th
assessment report of IPCC: global temperature increased 0.74+0.18 degree C during the
20
th
century.
• Caused by greenhouse gases
o Water vapour, Co2, Methane, Nitrous Oxide, Ozone, CFCs (in order of abundance)
• Since the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has increased the levels of Co2 in
the atmosphere from 280 ppm to 390 ppm.
Climate Change Mitigation
• Alternative Energy sources
o Renewable energy
o Nuclear Power
o Reduce the carbon intensity of fossil fuels
• Energy efficiency and conservation
o Transport and urban planning
o Building design
o Reforestation and avoid deforestation
o Eliminating waste methane
• Geoengineering
o Greenhouse gas remediation
§ Biomass
§ Carbon air capture
§ Carbon capture and storage
• Societal control
o Population
o Sustainable life-style
Timeline
http://www.nature.com/climate/timeline/icp/index.html
Inter-governmental action
• IPCC
• UN Conference on Environment and Development (Earth Summit), 1992
• Agenda 21
o An action plan of UN relating to sustainable development adopted at the Earth
Summit, 1992
• UNFCCC
• Kyoto Protocol
IPCC
• 1988 by World Meteorological Organisation and UNEP
• tasked with reviewing and assessing the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic
information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change
• Nobel Prize in 2007
• The IPCC does not carry out its own original research, nor does it do the work of monitoring
climate or related phenomena itself.
• A main activity of the IPCC is publishing special reports on topics relevant to the
implementation of the (UNFCCC)
• Till now, it has released four assessment reports (1990, 1995, 2001, 2007)
• Fifth assessment report is due in 2014
UNFCCC
1992 at the Rio Summit.
194 members. Secretariat at Bonn.
Parties to UNFCCC are classified as:
• Annex I countries – industrialized countries and economies in transition
• Annex II countries – developed countries which pay for costs of developing countries
• Developing countries.
Conference Place Outcome
1995 COP1 Berlin The Berlin Mandate
1996 COP2 Geneva
1997 COP3 Kyoto Kyoto Protocol
1998 COP4 Buenos Aires
1999 COP5 Bonn
2000 COP6 /2001 COP6 The Hague/Bonn CDM and Joint Implementation
adopted at Bonn
2001 COP7 Marrakesh
2002 COP8 New Delhi Delhi Declaration: Calls for
efforts by developed countries
to transfer technology and
minimize the impact of climate
change on developing countries
2003 COP9 Milan
2004 COP10 Buenos Aires
2005 COP11/MOP1 Montreal
2006 COP12/MOP2 Nairobi
2007 COP13/MOP3 Bali Bali Action Plan
2008 COP14/MOP4 Poznan, Poland
2009 COP15/MOP5 Copenhagen
2010 COP16/MOP6 Cancun
2011 COP17/MOP7 Durban, South Africa
Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol has put in place three flexibility mechanisms to reduce emission of
Green House Gases. Although the Protocol places maximum responsibility of reducing
emissions on the developed countries by committing them to specific emission targets, the
three mechanisms are based on the premise that reduction of emissions in any part of the
globe will have the same desired effect on the atmosphere, and also that some developed
countries might find it easier and more cost effective to support emissions reductions in
other developed or developing countries rather than at home. These mechanisms thus
provide flexibility to the Annexure I countries, helping them to meet their emission reduction
obligations. Let us take a look at what these mechanisms are.
What are the three flexibility mechanisms put in place of the Kyoto Protocol for
reducing GHG emission?
• The three mechanisms are joint implementation. Emissions Trading and Clean
Development
What is Joint Implementation?
• Through the Joint Implementation, any Annex I country can invest in emission
reduction projects (referred to as joint Implementation Project) in any other Annex I
country as an alternative to reducing emissions domestically.
• Two early examples are change from a wet to a dry process at a Ukraine cement
works, reducing energy consumption by 53 percent by 2008-2012; and rehabilitation
of a Bulgarian hydropower project, with a 267,000 ton reduction of C02 equivalent
during 2008-2012.
What is Clean Development Mechanism?
• The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) allows-'l developed country with an
emission reduction or emission-limitation commitment under the Kyoto Protocol to
implement an emission reduction project in developing countries as an alternative
to more expensive emission reductions in their own countries. In exchange for the
amount of reduction In emission thus achieved, the investing gets carbon credits
which it can offset against its Kyoto targets. The developing country gains a Step
towards sustainable development.
• To get a CDM project registered and implemented, the investing country' has to
first take approval from the designated national authority in the host country,
establish "Additionally", define baselines and get the project validated by a
third party agency, called a Designated Operational Entity (DOE). The Executive
Body of CDM registers the project and issues credits, called Certified Emission
Reductions (CERs), or carbon credits, where each unit is equivalent to the reduction
of one metric tonne of. C02 or its equivalent. There are more than 4200 CDM
projects in the pipeline as on 14.3.2010. The expected CERs till the end of2012 is
2,900,000,000
What is "Additionality" in a CDM project ?
• The feature of "additionality" is a crucial element of a CDM project it means that the
industrialized country that is seeking to establish the CDM project in the developing
country and earns carbon credits from it has to establish that the planned carbon
reductions would not have occurred on its own, in the absence of the CDM project.
They have to establish a baseline of the project. Which is the emission level that
would have been there in the absence of the project. The difference between this
baseline level and the (lower) emission level achieved as a result of the project is the
carbon credit due to the investing country
What are some of the concerns regarding CDM ?
• The risk of “false Credits" is a cause for concern with regard to CDM projects. If a
project does not actually offer an additionally and the reduction in emission would
have happened anyway Even without the project.
CoP15 (Copenhagen Summit)
• Main aim was to establish a global climate agreement for the period from 2012 when the
first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol expires
• The conference did not achieve any binding agreement for long term action
• A ‘political accord’ was negotiated by approximately 25 parties
o Collective commitment by developed countries for new and additional resources ,
including forestry and investments through international institutions to a tune of
$30 bn for the period 2010-12.
• Copenhagen Accord
o Not legally binding and does not commit countries to agree to a binding successor to
the Kyoto Protocol
o Annex 1 parties would commit to economy-wide emissions targets for 2020 to
be submitted by 31 Jan 2010. Delivery of reductions and finance by developed
countries will be measured , reported and verified (MRV) in accordance with COP
guidelines
o Non-annex 1 countries would implement Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions
to slow their carbon emissions
o Commits $30 bn for 2010-12
o Copenhagen Green Climate Fund
o The accord shall be assessed in 2015
Tarawa Climate Change Conference
• In the lead up to COP16, the leaders of the world’s most climate-change vulnerable
countries met in Kiribati in November 2010
• Ambo Declaration was adopted
o It calls for more and immediate action to be undertaken to address the causes and
adverse impacts of climate change.
CoP-16/CMP-6, Cancun
COP-16 President: Patricia Espinosa, Mexico’s foreign secretary
COP-17 will be held in Durban
Issues
• Forestry issues and reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD)
plus
• The developed countries are pushing for transparency from countries where they will fund
climate change mitigation.
o The assessment of carbon emission mitigation for developing countries is right now
through domestic communication but is subject to international consultation and
analysis. This push for transparency is a major contentious issue.
• Fast-track finance: $ 30 bn had been committed at CoP-15. A large part of this funding is yet
to come through.
Goals
Agreements Reached
• The outcome of the summit was an agreement, not a binding treaty, which calls on rich
countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions as pledged in the Copenhagen Accord,
and for developing countries to plan to reduce their emissions, to limit global warming to
less than 2 degrees celsius above pre-industrial levels.
• There should be no gap between the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, which
expires in December 2012, and the second phase.
• The agreement calls on the developed countries to “raise the level of ambition of the
emission reductions to be achieved by them individually or jointly, with a view to reducing
their aggregate level of emission of green house gases”
• Allows flexibility in choosing the base year for setting emission reduction targets
• Emissions trading and the project based mechanism under the KP shall continue to be
available to Annex 1 parties as a means to meet their quantified emission limitation and
reduction objectives.
• The agreements recognize that in all climate change related action, human rights must be
respected. They also recognise the need to engage with a broad range of stakeholders,
including youth and persons with disability, and call for gender equality and effective
participation of women and indigenous people in effective action on all aspects of climate
change.
• The BASIC group softened the three demands it had before the talks began
o Necessity of a second commitment period to the Kyoto Protocol
o Need to accelerate disbursement under the fast start finance in the form of new and
additional resources through a multilaterally supervised mechanism
o Continued dialogue on IPRs as part of the technology development and transfer
issues.
• REDD is a part of the package and proposed mitigation actions include conservation and
enhancement of forest carbon stocks and sustainable management of forests.
o REDD is a set of steps designed to use market/financial incentives in order to reduce
the emissions of greenhouse gases from deforestation and forest degradation.
Its original objective is to reduce GHGs but it can deliver ‘co-benefits’ such as
biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation
o REDD+ calls for activities with serious implication directed towards the local
communities, indigenous people and forests which relate to reducing emission
from deforestation and forest degradation. It goes beyond deforestation and forest
degradation and includes the role of conservation, sustainable management of
forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks
• A Cancun Adaptation Framework has been proposed to strengthen and address
implementation of action, and various kinds of assessments, apart from R&D and host of
other issues.
• Green Climate Fund established. The fund will be designed by a transitional committee, with
15 members from the developed countries and 25 from the developing nations.
• Pledge by the developed countries to provide $100 bn annually till 2020.
Conclusion
• UNFCCC secretary-general Christian Figueres emphasised that the main achievement of the
Cancun meet has been to restore some degree of faith in the multilateral process.
• The agreements don’t mention any reduction targets.
• Though the agreements recognize the need to reduce the GHG emissions and curb the
increase in global average temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels,
in the absence of any firm target, this could be an inadequate and vague provision
• Bolivia has rejected the agreement, saying that it won’t support agreement without binding
emission cuts.
• In a sense, the summit was both a major step forward as well as a failure
• It was a step forward because in recent years climate change negotiations had stumbled and
this meeting helped overcome that
• It was a failure because it failed to reach an agreement for binding restrictions that are
required to avert global warming.
• There was no agreement on how to extend the Kyoto Protocol, or how the $100 billion a
year for the Green Climate Fund will be raised or whether developing countries should have
binding emissions reductions.
Assessment articles
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/article948372.ece
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/article948370.ece
Under the Cancun Agreements, the targets set by industrialised countries for reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions are recognised as part of the multilateral process. They must now draw
up low-carbon development plans and strategies and also report their inventories annually. In the
case of developing countries, actions for emissions reduction will be recognised officially; a registry
will record and match their mitigation actions to finance and technology support from rich countries;
and they will report their progress every two years. These form a good preamble for target-setting
for all member-countries under an agreed framework at Durban next year.
Trivia
• A large amount of energy used during the conference came from renewable sources
• Around 10000 trees and bushes will be planted in Cancun
Role of India and its relevance
• India can act as a mediator between the developing and developed countries
• India’s approach to climate change negotiations has been governed by three factors – how
to protect the country’s economic interest and environment agenda, to use climate change
as a tool of global diplomacy and consolidate its position on world forums.
• At Cancun, India was responsible for having made five insertions into the Agreement
o In the section on shared vision, the figure of 50 pc has been dropped from
identifying a global goal for substantially reducing emissions by 2050
o The phrase access to sustainable development has been introduced in the context
of working towards identifying a time-frame for global peaking of greenhouse gas
emissions based on the best available scientific knowledge
o International Consultation and Analysis (ICA) finds mention the agreements. It
proposes to enhance the reporting for the non-Annex 1 parties or developing
countries on mitigation action and its effects and support received
• At Cancun, India also proposed legally binding emission cuts.
Climate Change related facts
• From 2001 to 2010, global temperatures have averaged 0.46 degrees Celsius above the
1961-1990 average and the highest value ever recorded for a 10-year period.
•
What is REDD
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) is a set of steps designed
to use market/financial incentives in order to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases from
deforestation and forest degradation. Its original objective is to reduce green house gases but it can
deliver "co-benefits" such as biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation.
REDD+ is being criticised by indigenous people and activists because it is designed to give more
control over indigenous people’s forests to state forest departments, miners, companies etc
resulting in violation of rights, loss of livelihoods etc.
REDD is presented as an "offset" scheme of the carbon markets and thus, will produce carbon
credits. Forest degradation accounts for 15% of greenhouse gas emissions, about the same
as transportation sector. Mitigation cannot be achieved without the inclusion of forests in an
international regime. Hence, it is expected to play a crucial role in a future successor agreement to
Kyoto Protocol.
Cancun climate agreement at a glance
Cutting carbon emissions: Scores of rich countries made pledges over the last year to cut their greenhouse
gas emissions by 2020 under the Copenhagen accord but they were not incorporated in the official UN process.
Cancun now formally puts those pledges into UN documentation, although they may increase or decrease in
future.
For the first time, developing countries also agreed to look at how they can cut emissions in the future — but did
not make specific pledges.
Crucially however, none of the cuts are legally binding.
Climate aid: A new climate green fund was agreed at Cancun to transfer money from the developed to
developing world to tackle the impacts of climate change. Poorer countries saw this as a success because they
will outnumber rich countries on a supervisory panel for the fund, which is due to be set up in 2011. But no
figure was put on how much money will go into it.
Separately, ministers repeated their political promise made last year at Copenhagen to raise $100bn in climate
aid by 2020, starting with $30bn by 2012 for “fast track” financing.
Forests
Formal backing was given for the UN's deforestation scheme, Redd (reducing emissions from deforestation and
degradation), under which rich countries pay poorer nations not to chop down forests and so lock away carbon
emissions.
But details on when and exactly what form the scheme will take — particularly whether developed countries
will be able to use it to “offset” their emissions rather than make cuts at home — are still vague.
Kyoto protocol: Decisions on the future of the Kyoto protocol, the current international treaty binding rich
countries to cut emissions, were effectively deferred until South Africa next year. Whether countries will sign
up for a second “commitment period” to cuts beyond 2012 remains to be seen.
Decisions on the role that the protocol will play in an ultimate future legal document that binds the world's
countries to emissions cuts — the “holy grail” of the UN negotiations — were delayed.
Technology transfer
The idea of transferring knowledge of clean technology between countries was backed at Cancun. A technology
executive committee and a climate technology centre and network are to be set up, but there are no details on the
money, where they will be based, when or by whom.
Countries agreed to the principle of having their emissions cuts inspected. Such “monitoring, reporting and
verification” will depend on the size of the country's economy, though who will carry out the inspections was
not specified.
COP 17, Durban
• An agreement among by more than 190 nations to work towards a future treaty that would
require all countries to reduce emissions that contribute to global warming.
o To be decided by 2015 and to come into force by 2020
o The process for doing so, called the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, would
develop a new protocol, another legal instrument or agreed outcome with legal
force that will be applicable to all Parties to the UN Climate Convention
• Agreed to launch a work plan to identify options for closing the ‘ambition gap’ between
countries’ current emissions reduction pledges for 2020 and the goal of keeping global
warming below 2 degree C
• New arrangements for making more transparent the actions taken by both developed and
developing countries to address their emissions
• Also agreed to on the creation of a fund to help poor countries adapt to climate change,
and to measures involving the preservation of tropical forests and the development of clean
energy technology
• The deal looks to renew the Kyoto Protocol for several more years. This will be decided
o The second commitment period will run from 2013 to end of 2017
• Next summit in Qatar
Important Organisations relating to environment/climate change
Name HQ etc General info
Centre for International
Forestry Research (CIFOR)
Bogor, Indonesia Had received the Queen’s
Award for Forestry
View of different parties on climate change mitigation
• Developed countries
• Developing countries
• Most vulnerable countries/ AOSIS countries
• Activists/Environmental Groups
Activists
• Activists have offered a serious criticism of market based measures like CDM, emissions
trading and REDD as they will affect the developing countries and indigenous people
adversely.