Criminology Research Methods Assignment 1
Content
1 UNDERTAKING SECONDARY ANALYSIS: LOGITUDINAL CRIME IN BELFAST 2001 – 2008 BY ELECTORAL WARD
INTRODUCTION The following report provides an overview of reported assaults within Belfast between 2001 and 2008 as represented by electoral ward. As I shall illustrate the landscape of violence within Belfast is changing with the processes of social normalisation and associated economic activity. As Belfast continues the process from a society in tribal conflict to one with all the dysfunction of any modern metropolis, new challenges and trends emerge. The violence of deprivation, class and frustrated masculinity replaces the violence of tribalism. Normalisation is, however, perhaps not the fairytale ending that one might imagine. For the landscape of violence in Belfast to imitate that of Glasgow, Dublin or London may actually be a regression. If this situation is to be avoided new solutions and attitudes are necessary and, as I shall illustrate, simple preventative measures may hold innovative solutions.
ANALYSIS OF THE FIGURES It is important at the outset to gain a firm grasp of the actual phenomenon that is being observed through the data. In this instance the data captures assaults reported to the PSNI. The methodology for the data sample used by the PSNI follows the National Crime Recoding Standard and as so, a wide spectrum of offences are grouped as offences against the person. This rather broad grouping includes common assault, assault occasioning actual bodily harm, grievous bodily harm and wounding with intent. It also should be noted that the assault data is only that which has been reported to the PSNI. The “dark figure of crime” (Biderman 1967 p.1) should be born
2 in mind specifically owing to political and community confidence issues within the policing debate in Northern Ireland. One must also question, however, the issue of over-reporting or false reporting, in light of the Criminal Injuries Compensation Scheme within Northern Ireland, for financial motives. In these ways the data set is therefore limited somewhat and an analysis using an independent victim survey may bring a more accurate picture of the phenomenon of assaults within the city.
With regard to community confidence levels the figures betray the populist concept that improved relations with the police have led to a universal marked increase in reporting of assaults by the Nationalist / Catholic community. Taking the averages by segregation a mere 7.2% increase in reports of assault can be seen by predominantly Nationalist /Catholic wards between the samples from 2000-2001 and 2007-2008. Whilst the 7.2% increase may objectively appear to be a mark of increased confidence it should be born in mind that for the same period an increase of 20.8% can be noted for wards predominantly Unionist / Protestant [see appendix 4]. In light of the fact that the average increase for Belfast as a whole in the same period is 35.5% [see appendix 3] the conclusion can be drawn that changes in the policing arrangements have not had a marked effect on the reporting of assaults within the Nationalist / Catholic community.
Whilst this macro assessment may be true within a more specific examination of individual wards increased community confidence can be noted: for example in the same period the New Lodge ward had an increase of 48.1% indicating high levels of increased confidence. This is offset by a ward such as Ardoyne which had an increase of only 1.3%. Clearly local policing relationships vary producing mixed results.
3
Anomalies also appear within the data: for example the decrease within the Falls Park ward of 39.3% may be attributed to the prevalence of Community Restorative Justice initiatives within the area and increased preventative measures during the period. Crucially this illustrates how single wards can have a significant impact upon the data as a whole.
Most notably, assaults within the Belfast area can be viewed as an issue of place and crime. The commercial centres and night time economy wards of the city centre stretch out in corridors of high assault activity to the North and West of the city whose working class residential areas appear to be most vulnerable to violence; respectively occupying positions within the 10 worst wards for assaults. The correlation between these areas as those also featuring most prominently in the depravation ranks evidently points to the violence within these areas as being the violence of the disenfranchised and dispossessed. The paradigms of the Chicago school and specifically Shaw and McKay’s Zonal theory are surprisingly relevant within the landscape of violence as illustrated by the data. Clearly within the data their notions of spatial distribution of offences can be noted (Shaw and McKay 1942).
The volume of reported assault appears to be increasing phenomenally with an overall increase of reported assaults of 35.5% from the samples 2000/2001 to 2007/2008. Within this figure hotspots can be observed in the night time economy wards located within the city. The wards of Shaftesbury, Botanic and Island present as hotspots for assaults, respectively attaining the top three positions for assaults.
4 The assaults taking place within hotspots such as Botanic or Island are taking place within the bubble of the night-time economy and the nightlife scene. These places are the playgrounds of those with disposable income. These places are not the traditional homes of the folk devil that is the proverbial council estate youth dressed in sports attire. One must therefore consider that the assaults within these areas are not the desperate crimes of the underclass, but the expression of the uncertainty and angst that flows from an increasingly nervous middle class. A state of flux and malaise of uncertainty that is endemic and carried along on a current of globalisation, uncertain social norms, economic and family uncertainty. It is, as Jock Young so aptly puts it “the vertigo of late Modernity” (Young 2007 p.11)
Within the night time economy the choice and availability of drugs compared to the rising assault rate creates a correlation. In recent years, cocaine seizures by the PSNI have risen whereas seizures of Ecstasy have plummeted. Cocaine seizures increased by 35% in the year 2007/2008 where as Ecstasy seizures dropped by 85% for the same year (PSNI 2009). This data set against a rising assault rate perhaps suggests that psychoactive effect of the fashionable drugs of the moment may add to assault rates.
The exclusion of sexual assaults and rape within the figures expressly illustrates the inherent patriarchy within the recording of crime. There is a valid argument that rape and sexual assault are essentially crimes of violence, control and power rather than sexualising them by recording as sexual offences (Mooney 2000). Without this input the existing data can be seen as inherently flawed.
5
Conclusions
The phenomenal rise in assaults within the night time economy wards illustrates quite clearly that crime can be designed into an area. One must therefore consider that crime can be designed out of an area also. Dispersal of revellers presents an opportunity for the reduction of assaults. Communal entrances, vendors of fast food after closure of clubs and communal taxi ranks present a melting pot of social interaction that is rife for assaults.
Designing out the congregation of inebriated patrons presents an opportunity to reduce assaults. Closure of fast food outlets before closing time, multiple entrances /exits and staggered taxi ranks therefore present a potential solution to the assault issue within the night time economy wards. This solution does not, however, make economic sense and therefore is fated to never be implemented. The assault problem is measured against the bottom line economics of business. Until the night time economy wards have an assault problem that impacts local business these relatively simple solutions may be ignored. Civic or altruistic interests do not concern the business and the corporation. They are, as Joel Bakan notes “institutional psychopaths” (Bakan 2004 p.85) and unlikely to take a course of action reducing profit margins. The council should therefore take the lead with this initiative as ultimately they hold the power to control business opening hours. In this respect staggered closing times for pubs and clubs may also be beneficial.
6
Although not directly evidenced in the data as a motivation for assaults it would be naïve to assume that the violence of sectarianism is not at work within the figures. Of the 10 most prolific wards for assaults, when the night time economy is accounted for, we see that the residential areas remaining all feature prominently as interface areas. As Shirlow and Murtagh note regarding the sectarian conflict: “Ultimately, territorial conflict in Northern Ireland is played out via place-centred interpretations of struggle” (Shirlow & Murtagh 2006 p.171) In light of this it is not inconceivable that place can be used to neutralise conflict. To this end integrated social housing may be a tempting method of designing out the violence of segregation. Previous failures in the integrated housing experiment may be cited as cautionary tales however one must bear in mind that Belfast has undergone considerable transition
In conclusion it is evident that the frequency of reported assaults within Belfast varies greatly and is deeply entwined with concepts of place and design. The concrete jungles of interface areas and the overcrowded chip shops of the night time economy come to the fore as criminogenic in location and design. The equation is fluid however. Utilising a basic sense of foresight the design of places and social settings can be moulded to reduce the rate of assaults reported or otherwise. Preventative design, therefore, must be a priority for all seeking to impact upon the assault rate. .
7 Bibliography Bakan, Joel, 2004, The Corporation: The Pathological Pursuit of Profit and Power. London. Constable Publishing. Biderman, Albert and Reiss, Albert, 1967, On Exploring the Dark Figure of Crime. Philadelphia. Sage Publications. Mooney, Jayne, 2000, Gender, Violence and the Social Order, London, Macmillan press. Police Service of Northern Ireland, Drug Seizures and Arrests 2007/2008, Central Statistics Bureau http://www.psni.police.uk/4._08_09_drug_seizures_and_arrests.pdf [on-line] Date Accessed: 05/03/2010 Shaw, C.R and McKay, H.D, 1942, Juvenile Delinquency and Urban Areas, Chicago. University of Chicago Press. Shirlow, Peter and Murtagh, Brendan, 2006, Belfast: Segregation, Violence and the City, London. Pluto Press. Young, Jock. 2007, The Vertigo of Late Modernity. London. Sage Publications.
8
Appendix 1: Table 1: Offence Against the Person Assaults by Segregation
Electoral ward Woodvale Upper Springfield Crumlin Ballymacarrett Shankill Whiterock Ardoyne New Lodge Falls Duncairn Average Catholic Electoral wards Average Protestant Electoral wards Total Belfast Average electoral (Belfast) for per ward 200 0-01 46 123 84 132 71 150 145 158 242 242 163. 6 115. 0 460 5 90.2 Offences against the person – assaults 2000-2007-08 200 200 200 200 200 20062007 1-02 2-03 3-04 4-05 5-06 07 -08 49 105 69 133 79 94 268 243 277 256 197. 4 117. 2 605 0 118. 6 48 110 90 157 102 97 183 250 257 322 179. 4 143. 8 596 1 116. 8 65 110 94 106 105 88 144 236 234 299 162. 4 133. 8 613 7 120. 3 64 93 89 90 99 99 156 221 280 234 169. 8 115. 2 709 8 139. 1 74 131 108 110 93 127 149 241 259 266 181. 4 130. 2 620 2 121. 6 60 91 107 84 90 142 151 232 316 315 175.0 131.2 58 82 98 99 99 127 147 234 287 343 175.4 139.4
6567 128.7
6240 122. 3
9
Appendix 2 Table 2: Assaults 2007-2208 for the republican/nationalist communities Electoral ward Deprivation Rank (Belfast)
ten
most
deprived
unionist/loyalist Assaults Rank Assaults 20072008
and % Catholic
Assaults 2007-2008
Island Duncairn The Mount Woodstock Shankill Crumlin Blackstaff Woodvale Highfield Glencairn Average (Unionist/loyalist) Falls New Lodge Water Works Ardoyne Whiterock Glencolin Beechmount Glen Road Clonard Upper Springfield Average (republican/nationalist)
18 9 11 21 1 4 16 10 23 15 12.8 2 5 12 6 3 20 19 17 13 7 10.4
354 343 165 112 99 98 93 58 57 31
3 4 8 13 18 20 22 33 34 45 20.0 5 6 7 9 11 12 21 24 25 27 14.7
5.4 5.1 4.2 5.8 4.1 3.3 4.4 2.9 4.1 13.1
287 234 220 147 127 113 95 88 86 82
96.8 97.4 90.3 99.2 99.4 98.2 92.7 97.3 96.9 97.5
10
Appendix 3: Table 3: Worst 20 wards in Belfast for Assaults
Electoral ward Assaults 20002001 Assaults 2007-2008 Assaults Rank % change
Shaftesbury Botanic Island Duncairn Falls New Lodge Water Works The Mount Ardoyne Legoniel Whiterock Glencolin Woodstock Chichester Park Windsor Falls Park Cliftonville Shankill Ballymacarrett Crumlin Total for Sample Total for Belfast
607 210 100 242 211 158 175 147 145 60 97 131 62 109 97 178 90 71 132 84 3106 4605
1093 498 354 343 287 234 220 165 147 130 127 113 112 110 109 108 101 99 99 98 4547 6240
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 18 20
80.0 137.1 254.0 46.2 36.0 48.1 25.7 12.2 1.3 53.8 30.9 -13.7 80.6 0.9 12.3 -39.3 22.2 39.4 -25.0 16.6 46.3% 35.5%
11 Appendix 4 Table representing average rates of recorded assault with regard to segregation
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06 Average Protestant Ward Average Catholic Ward
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01 0 100 200 300
12 Appendix 5 Table representing reported assaults within Belfast with regard to place, time and frequency
1200
1000 Shaftesbury Botanic Island Duncairn Falls New Lodge Water Works The Mount Ardoyne Legoniel
800
600
400
200
0 2000- 20072001 2008
INTRODUCTION The following report provides an overview of reported assaults within Belfast between 2001 and 2008 as represented by electoral ward. As I shall illustrate the landscape of violence within Belfast is changing with the processes of social normalisation and associated economic activity. As Belfast continues the process from a society in tribal conflict to one with all the dysfunction of any modern metropolis, new challenges and trends emerge. The violence of deprivation, class and frustrated masculinity replaces the violence of tribalism. Normalisation is, however, perhaps not the fairytale ending that one might imagine. For the landscape of violence in Belfast to imitate that of Glasgow, Dublin or London may actually be a regression. If this situation is to be avoided new solutions and attitudes are necessary and, as I shall illustrate, simple preventative measures may hold innovative solutions.
ANALYSIS OF THE FIGURES It is important at the outset to gain a firm grasp of the actual phenomenon that is being observed through the data. In this instance the data captures assaults reported to the PSNI. The methodology for the data sample used by the PSNI follows the National Crime Recoding Standard and as so, a wide spectrum of offences are grouped as offences against the person. This rather broad grouping includes common assault, assault occasioning actual bodily harm, grievous bodily harm and wounding with intent. It also should be noted that the assault data is only that which has been reported to the PSNI. The “dark figure of crime” (Biderman 1967 p.1) should be born
2 in mind specifically owing to political and community confidence issues within the policing debate in Northern Ireland. One must also question, however, the issue of over-reporting or false reporting, in light of the Criminal Injuries Compensation Scheme within Northern Ireland, for financial motives. In these ways the data set is therefore limited somewhat and an analysis using an independent victim survey may bring a more accurate picture of the phenomenon of assaults within the city.
With regard to community confidence levels the figures betray the populist concept that improved relations with the police have led to a universal marked increase in reporting of assaults by the Nationalist / Catholic community. Taking the averages by segregation a mere 7.2% increase in reports of assault can be seen by predominantly Nationalist /Catholic wards between the samples from 2000-2001 and 2007-2008. Whilst the 7.2% increase may objectively appear to be a mark of increased confidence it should be born in mind that for the same period an increase of 20.8% can be noted for wards predominantly Unionist / Protestant [see appendix 4]. In light of the fact that the average increase for Belfast as a whole in the same period is 35.5% [see appendix 3] the conclusion can be drawn that changes in the policing arrangements have not had a marked effect on the reporting of assaults within the Nationalist / Catholic community.
Whilst this macro assessment may be true within a more specific examination of individual wards increased community confidence can be noted: for example in the same period the New Lodge ward had an increase of 48.1% indicating high levels of increased confidence. This is offset by a ward such as Ardoyne which had an increase of only 1.3%. Clearly local policing relationships vary producing mixed results.
3
Anomalies also appear within the data: for example the decrease within the Falls Park ward of 39.3% may be attributed to the prevalence of Community Restorative Justice initiatives within the area and increased preventative measures during the period. Crucially this illustrates how single wards can have a significant impact upon the data as a whole.
Most notably, assaults within the Belfast area can be viewed as an issue of place and crime. The commercial centres and night time economy wards of the city centre stretch out in corridors of high assault activity to the North and West of the city whose working class residential areas appear to be most vulnerable to violence; respectively occupying positions within the 10 worst wards for assaults. The correlation between these areas as those also featuring most prominently in the depravation ranks evidently points to the violence within these areas as being the violence of the disenfranchised and dispossessed. The paradigms of the Chicago school and specifically Shaw and McKay’s Zonal theory are surprisingly relevant within the landscape of violence as illustrated by the data. Clearly within the data their notions of spatial distribution of offences can be noted (Shaw and McKay 1942).
The volume of reported assault appears to be increasing phenomenally with an overall increase of reported assaults of 35.5% from the samples 2000/2001 to 2007/2008. Within this figure hotspots can be observed in the night time economy wards located within the city. The wards of Shaftesbury, Botanic and Island present as hotspots for assaults, respectively attaining the top three positions for assaults.
4 The assaults taking place within hotspots such as Botanic or Island are taking place within the bubble of the night-time economy and the nightlife scene. These places are the playgrounds of those with disposable income. These places are not the traditional homes of the folk devil that is the proverbial council estate youth dressed in sports attire. One must therefore consider that the assaults within these areas are not the desperate crimes of the underclass, but the expression of the uncertainty and angst that flows from an increasingly nervous middle class. A state of flux and malaise of uncertainty that is endemic and carried along on a current of globalisation, uncertain social norms, economic and family uncertainty. It is, as Jock Young so aptly puts it “the vertigo of late Modernity” (Young 2007 p.11)
Within the night time economy the choice and availability of drugs compared to the rising assault rate creates a correlation. In recent years, cocaine seizures by the PSNI have risen whereas seizures of Ecstasy have plummeted. Cocaine seizures increased by 35% in the year 2007/2008 where as Ecstasy seizures dropped by 85% for the same year (PSNI 2009). This data set against a rising assault rate perhaps suggests that psychoactive effect of the fashionable drugs of the moment may add to assault rates.
The exclusion of sexual assaults and rape within the figures expressly illustrates the inherent patriarchy within the recording of crime. There is a valid argument that rape and sexual assault are essentially crimes of violence, control and power rather than sexualising them by recording as sexual offences (Mooney 2000). Without this input the existing data can be seen as inherently flawed.
5
Conclusions
The phenomenal rise in assaults within the night time economy wards illustrates quite clearly that crime can be designed into an area. One must therefore consider that crime can be designed out of an area also. Dispersal of revellers presents an opportunity for the reduction of assaults. Communal entrances, vendors of fast food after closure of clubs and communal taxi ranks present a melting pot of social interaction that is rife for assaults.
Designing out the congregation of inebriated patrons presents an opportunity to reduce assaults. Closure of fast food outlets before closing time, multiple entrances /exits and staggered taxi ranks therefore present a potential solution to the assault issue within the night time economy wards. This solution does not, however, make economic sense and therefore is fated to never be implemented. The assault problem is measured against the bottom line economics of business. Until the night time economy wards have an assault problem that impacts local business these relatively simple solutions may be ignored. Civic or altruistic interests do not concern the business and the corporation. They are, as Joel Bakan notes “institutional psychopaths” (Bakan 2004 p.85) and unlikely to take a course of action reducing profit margins. The council should therefore take the lead with this initiative as ultimately they hold the power to control business opening hours. In this respect staggered closing times for pubs and clubs may also be beneficial.
6
Although not directly evidenced in the data as a motivation for assaults it would be naïve to assume that the violence of sectarianism is not at work within the figures. Of the 10 most prolific wards for assaults, when the night time economy is accounted for, we see that the residential areas remaining all feature prominently as interface areas. As Shirlow and Murtagh note regarding the sectarian conflict: “Ultimately, territorial conflict in Northern Ireland is played out via place-centred interpretations of struggle” (Shirlow & Murtagh 2006 p.171) In light of this it is not inconceivable that place can be used to neutralise conflict. To this end integrated social housing may be a tempting method of designing out the violence of segregation. Previous failures in the integrated housing experiment may be cited as cautionary tales however one must bear in mind that Belfast has undergone considerable transition
In conclusion it is evident that the frequency of reported assaults within Belfast varies greatly and is deeply entwined with concepts of place and design. The concrete jungles of interface areas and the overcrowded chip shops of the night time economy come to the fore as criminogenic in location and design. The equation is fluid however. Utilising a basic sense of foresight the design of places and social settings can be moulded to reduce the rate of assaults reported or otherwise. Preventative design, therefore, must be a priority for all seeking to impact upon the assault rate. .
7 Bibliography Bakan, Joel, 2004, The Corporation: The Pathological Pursuit of Profit and Power. London. Constable Publishing. Biderman, Albert and Reiss, Albert, 1967, On Exploring the Dark Figure of Crime. Philadelphia. Sage Publications. Mooney, Jayne, 2000, Gender, Violence and the Social Order, London, Macmillan press. Police Service of Northern Ireland, Drug Seizures and Arrests 2007/2008, Central Statistics Bureau http://www.psni.police.uk/4._08_09_drug_seizures_and_arrests.pdf [on-line] Date Accessed: 05/03/2010 Shaw, C.R and McKay, H.D, 1942, Juvenile Delinquency and Urban Areas, Chicago. University of Chicago Press. Shirlow, Peter and Murtagh, Brendan, 2006, Belfast: Segregation, Violence and the City, London. Pluto Press. Young, Jock. 2007, The Vertigo of Late Modernity. London. Sage Publications.
8
Appendix 1: Table 1: Offence Against the Person Assaults by Segregation
Electoral ward Woodvale Upper Springfield Crumlin Ballymacarrett Shankill Whiterock Ardoyne New Lodge Falls Duncairn Average Catholic Electoral wards Average Protestant Electoral wards Total Belfast Average electoral (Belfast) for per ward 200 0-01 46 123 84 132 71 150 145 158 242 242 163. 6 115. 0 460 5 90.2 Offences against the person – assaults 2000-2007-08 200 200 200 200 200 20062007 1-02 2-03 3-04 4-05 5-06 07 -08 49 105 69 133 79 94 268 243 277 256 197. 4 117. 2 605 0 118. 6 48 110 90 157 102 97 183 250 257 322 179. 4 143. 8 596 1 116. 8 65 110 94 106 105 88 144 236 234 299 162. 4 133. 8 613 7 120. 3 64 93 89 90 99 99 156 221 280 234 169. 8 115. 2 709 8 139. 1 74 131 108 110 93 127 149 241 259 266 181. 4 130. 2 620 2 121. 6 60 91 107 84 90 142 151 232 316 315 175.0 131.2 58 82 98 99 99 127 147 234 287 343 175.4 139.4
6567 128.7
6240 122. 3
9
Appendix 2 Table 2: Assaults 2007-2208 for the republican/nationalist communities Electoral ward Deprivation Rank (Belfast)
ten
most
deprived
unionist/loyalist Assaults Rank Assaults 20072008
and % Catholic
Assaults 2007-2008
Island Duncairn The Mount Woodstock Shankill Crumlin Blackstaff Woodvale Highfield Glencairn Average (Unionist/loyalist) Falls New Lodge Water Works Ardoyne Whiterock Glencolin Beechmount Glen Road Clonard Upper Springfield Average (republican/nationalist)
18 9 11 21 1 4 16 10 23 15 12.8 2 5 12 6 3 20 19 17 13 7 10.4
354 343 165 112 99 98 93 58 57 31
3 4 8 13 18 20 22 33 34 45 20.0 5 6 7 9 11 12 21 24 25 27 14.7
5.4 5.1 4.2 5.8 4.1 3.3 4.4 2.9 4.1 13.1
287 234 220 147 127 113 95 88 86 82
96.8 97.4 90.3 99.2 99.4 98.2 92.7 97.3 96.9 97.5
10
Appendix 3: Table 3: Worst 20 wards in Belfast for Assaults
Electoral ward Assaults 20002001 Assaults 2007-2008 Assaults Rank % change
Shaftesbury Botanic Island Duncairn Falls New Lodge Water Works The Mount Ardoyne Legoniel Whiterock Glencolin Woodstock Chichester Park Windsor Falls Park Cliftonville Shankill Ballymacarrett Crumlin Total for Sample Total for Belfast
607 210 100 242 211 158 175 147 145 60 97 131 62 109 97 178 90 71 132 84 3106 4605
1093 498 354 343 287 234 220 165 147 130 127 113 112 110 109 108 101 99 99 98 4547 6240
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 18 20
80.0 137.1 254.0 46.2 36.0 48.1 25.7 12.2 1.3 53.8 30.9 -13.7 80.6 0.9 12.3 -39.3 22.2 39.4 -25.0 16.6 46.3% 35.5%
11 Appendix 4 Table representing average rates of recorded assault with regard to segregation
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06 Average Protestant Ward Average Catholic Ward
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01 0 100 200 300
12 Appendix 5 Table representing reported assaults within Belfast with regard to place, time and frequency
1200
1000 Shaftesbury Botanic Island Duncairn Falls New Lodge Water Works The Mount Ardoyne Legoniel
800
600
400
200
0 2000- 20072001 2008
