ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

A. GENERAL
Entering the year 2001 a number of fundamental issues and factors of uncertainty still continues and becomes an obstacle for the economic recovery process in a more rapid and sustainable. Compared with other Asian countries that experienced a similar crisis, the economic recovery process in Indonesia is relatively slower. At the macro level, the performance is still shadowed by the economic stability that are vulnerable to shocks. Value of the rupiah since the last few months of 2000 continues to fluctuate and tend to decline in value. Simultaneously, the implementation of transport fare adjustment, adjustment of fuel prices, electricity tariff adjustment and an increase in salaries of civil servants has increased the pressure on rising inflation.The amount of the burden of government spending, particularly for debt interest payments and subsidies, resulting in a limited fiscal stimulus to promote economic recovery and raises concerns about fiscal sustainability in the medium term. All this in turn has hindered economic recovery. On the micro level, there are still many obstacles that limit the acceleration of private investment, both from within and outside the country, raising fears for a sustainable economic recovery. In 2001, the performance of the world economy weakens, even more so after the September 11 tragedy. In the country, socio-political and security conditions in the country, especially in the first half of the year has not been stable, which resulted in the high risk factors and uncertainties. Despite progress, treatment programs of economic restructuring, various structural problems in the country still continues. The expansion of bank credit is still relatively limited, although in general banking conditions have improved.Progress in the process of restructuring corporate debt and private foreign debt is also not as fast as expected, so the companies that have bad credit can not move freely. In addition, not guaranteeing security, the absence of adequate enforcement, and the uncertainty in the regulations, including in relation to the implementation of decentralization in 2001, has encouraged business people to delay the increase in business activity and investment which in turn inhibits further economic expansioninformation. With a number of issues, economic conditions in general in the year 2001 showed a worsening trend compared to the year 2000. This is partly shown from slowing economic growth and worsening macro-economic stability as indicated by the weakening exchange rate, and high inflationary pressures. During 2001, Indonesia's economy grew only by 3.3 percent, the exchange rate depreciation pressure at 18.3 percent, reaching an average of Rp 10,255 per U.S. $, CPI inflation reached 12.6 percent and the SBI interest rate reaches about 16, 4 percent (3 month). In addition because of the impact of government policy in IV - a field of prices and incomes, high inflation is mainly driven by the depreciation of the rupiah and rising inflation expectations in the community. In 2001, the weakening rupiah against inflation when the pressure increases cause a combination of macro Economy policies conducive to growth difficult. The rupiah's decline has increased the pressure on rising prices and risk premiums, and consequently interest rates.

The weakening of the rupiah also increase the burden of the budget and create an environment less conducive to corporate restructuring. In the real sector, the weakening of economic stability has very limited utility and production activities weaken the performance of distribution, especially non-oil exports (which includes tourism), and lower investment interest. Meanwhile, domestic macroeconomic conditions are very unfortunate this, coupled with still the presence of internal structural problems in the real sector itself, causing a national business world in general steadily declining global competitiveness. While the financial sector, these problems have been caused not tersalurkannya liquidity for productive activities particularly in the form of bank loan disbursements and the declining stock market performance. Furthermore, interruption of the relationship between these two sectors, as reflected by the slow recovery of the banking intermediary function not only led to limited sources of financing investment and working capital, which then inhibits the process of economic recovery, but also has led to excess liquidity that is feared to put pressure on the value exchange rate and inflation. In terms of state financial management, although the level of deficit can be controlled in accordance with the objectives, fiscal sustainability remains at risk, mainly as a result of high debt burden, especially domestic debt. Due to the weakening of the rupiah and rising interest rates, each payment of foreign debt and domestic debt increases. This burden has reduced the space for the government to implement development programs. During 2001, according to a report of Changes Budget (APBN-P), the overall state revenue reached Rp 299.9 trillion or 4.8 percent higher than planned. Admission is dominated by sector taxation and revenue from natural resources (NR), primarily petroleum and natural gas. Most tax revenue exceeded the target, except oil and gas income tax, the United Nations and other taxes that realization is slightly below target. While oil and gas revenue in the postal revenue reached Rp 81.9 trillion SDA, or 8.9 percent higher than the budget target.On the expenditure side, total state spending reached Rp354, 6 trillion, or 4.2 percent higher than planned. This increase was mainly occurred in postal subsidies and debt payments, debt both domestically and abroad. The high spending on fuel subsidies and interest payments of government debt was mainly due to the realization of the value of the rupiah exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and the SBI interest rate is higher than the budget target of 2001. IV - 2 From the picture postal receipts and expenditures of these countries, the realization of the budget deficit in nominal terms increased slightly compared with the budget target. However, when compared with the expected realization of GDP, 2001, the realization of the budget deficit to GDP ratio is at the level of the same number with the budget target, which was 3.7 percent.The achievement of the target budget deficit was mainly caused by exceeding the state revenue target, reaching 24.0 percent of GDP from the budget target of 23.2 percent. To cover the existing deifit, the Government did IBRA asset sales and privatiasasi SOE, each of which reached 2.1 percent and 0.3 percent of GDP. While the withdrawal of foreign loans as a complementary component of net financing to cover the state budget deficit reached 0.7 percent of GDP. From the picture of the implementation of Budget 2001, the impact on the reduction in government debt burden, where the proportion of the burden of government debt to GDP declined from 103.3 percent to 93.3 percent with 44.2 percent of the composition of domestic debt and 49.1 percent of foreign debt country. In 2002, the world economy is expected to start improved in the second half, but overall still in recession. Meanwhile, world oil prices is hard to predict with certainty, because in addition to depending on the state of the world economy is also very sensitive to many other world developments, such as the conflict in the Middle East.

However, if the oil price is below the state budget assumption of 22 dollars per barrel as happened in early 2002, this would further burden the government's financial burden, mainly due to continued high spending on subsidies and government debt is still large, although it has backed out of debt rescheduling countries through the Paris Club III. While progress in asset recovery IBRA and the privatization of state firms are expected not to cover government's financial burden. Under these conditions, the state of fiscal sustainability is threatened and the stimulus from the fiscal side to accelerate the economic recovery becomes very limited. In 2002, efforts to create fiscal sustainability be reached by increasing tax revenue from 12.5 percent of GDP in the state budget in 2001 to 13.0 percent of GDP, and gradually reduce subsidy burden of 5.5 percent of GDP to 2.5 percent of GDP, and by controlling spending by keeping employee salaries remain as in previous years.Another step is to sharpen their spending priorities, for the funds available can be utilized with the best, well-managed funds and local government. With these plans, the budget deficit in 2002 is expected around 2.5 percent of GDP. On the financing side, in addition to efforts to fund the deficit is also carried out measures to reduce domestic debt burden. For that strived for partial privatization receipts from asset sales and bank restructuring program amounted to Rp 2.5 trillion and Rp 23.3 trillion is used to attract government bonds ( bond redemption .) With these steps, the burden of government debt is expected to decline to around 76.7 percent, with the composition of domestic and overseas respectively 36.9 percent and 39.8 percent. The decrease was also pursued by improving overall economic conditions, which can lead to growth of 4 percent and the rupiah to Rp 9.500/US $. IV - 3 In line with the declining budget deficit as noted above, the absolute position of the government's foreign debt (including IMF loans) at the end of 2001 declined slightly from U.S. $ 74.9 billion in 2000 to about U.S. $ 71.4 billion. In 2001, many development activities are financed from foreign loans can not be implemented due to various constraints such as availability of dollars companion to cost sharingor facilities which must be funded from the rupiah, a security problem for some areasprone to unrest, the implementation of a decentralized system that caused delays inthe procurement of goods and services to areas that are not familiar mechanisms andprocedures for foreign loans, the lack of coordination between the implementingagencies, and non-fulfillment of the requirements of liquefaction so that some loanprograms from the original schedule released late. In line with the decline in the position of foreign loans in absolute terms, the percentage of foreign debt to GDP in2001 was also slightly decreased from 49.3 percent in 2000 to 49.1 percent.Meanwhile, for This is in line with government efforts to reduce dependence on foreign loans. As for domestic borrowing Government, his position in 2001 has reached 44.2 percent of GDP. The high stock of debt in this country has given the interest payment burden of the country in a very big budget. Interest payment burden of domestic debt in 2001 reached Rp 66.3 trillion, most of whom are bank recapitalization bond interest payments. Pressure on state finances will increase since the year 2002 will begin with a maturity of government bonds. Meanwhile, the outlook for the rupiah during 2002 will be influenced by fundamental conditions in the foreign exchange market and market trust in line with progress in the implementation of government economic programs, including the existence of significant progress in asset sales by IBRA and privatization of SOEs. In general, the exchange rate in 2002 is estimated to

have the potential to be a little stronger rupiah depreciation where the pressure tends to decrease compared with last year given the estimated relative uncertainty of the political situation improved in 2002. The strengthening of the rupiah is expected to occur mainly from half to two IV - 4 in 2002, in line with the hopes of continued improvement in political risk, finance, and economics. The rupiah exchange rate on average in 2002 is estimated to slightly stronger at around Rp 9,000 - Rp 10,000.Furthermore, the prospects for inflation in 2002 will be influenced primarily by higher expectations of inflation and the impact of government policy in the field of prices and income. As in previous years the impact of government policy to increase the rate of inflation expected to remain quite high. Government policy to raise fuel prices, electricity, telephone and cigarette tax rates expected to have an impact on inflation in 2002. In addition, the higher the pressure is expected if the factor of food supply disruptions caused by El Nino that occurred in 2002 disrupt agricultural production.By considering these developments, an estimated rate of inflation and interest rates SBI respectively in the range of 9 percent - 10 percent and 13 percent - 15 percent. In the financial sector, along with estimates of a more conducive investment climate due to improved economic stability and security and order and political stability, then the funding and lending is also expected to increase. Thus, capital structure and credit quality is also expected to improve. However, the increased resilience of banking and banking intermediation function is also predicted to take place gradually and will depend also of the speed of settlement of private corporate debt restructuring.Meanwhile, funding institutions are also expected to grow, along with economic growth that is expected to be better than in 2001. Despite the trend of increased activity early in the year, overall activity of financial institutions and capital market activities are still vulnerable to turmoil as a result of the high risk factors and uncertainties. These conditions may hamper the acceleration of the recovery of the banking intermediary function and lead to limited financing production and investment activities and complicate efforts to repair country risk Indonesia. In a development financial institution, the principal problems faced in the financial sector is not yet strong banking system, a high dependence on source bank financing, and yet the prevalence of credit. In 2001 some banking indicators such as bank capital structure, showed improvement compared to the year 2000, which respectively increased fromRp 52.3 trillion to Rp 62.3 trillion, down from 18.8 percent to 12.1 percent, andincreased from Rp 22.8 trillion to Rp 37.8 trillion . These improvements still need to beexamined further, because the elements that drive these improvements still do not fullyreflect the bank's function as an intermediary institution that should rely on income fromloans extended. The ratio of credit to fund raising or Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) banks in 2001 are still carrying 33 percent. In pre-crisis (1996) this ratio recorded 78.3 percent. The new credit disbursed (including the transfer of IBRA) up to November 2001 amounted to Rp 47.7 trillion. As for which is distributed as a Small Business Loan (KUK) amounted to Rp 9.2 trillion. However, when compared with the commitments of new loans provided by banks, which amounted to Rp 122 trillion, the new credit withdrawals reached only 39.6 percent of his. This reflects the bank intermediary function is not fully recovered. IV - 5 In 2001, the bank aimed to meet the 2 (two) strategic objective is the minimum CAR of 8 percent and NPLs infikatif target about 5 percent. For banks that can not meet to choose a few alternative solutions by adding new capital, looking for strategic investors or a merger with another bank. For 2001, we conducted liquidation and preparation for the merger of Unibank 5 banks

namely Bank Bali, Bank Universal, Bank Patriot, Bank Prima Express and Bank Arta Media. In addition, Bank Indonesia issued a regulation concerning the Status Determination and Delivery Banks Bank To IBRA (exit policy) through PBI No. 2/11/PBI/2001 (31 March 2001) which is then enhanced with PBI. 3/25/PBI/2001 (December 26, 2001). Meanwhile, the Rural Bank (RB), although overall activity is relatively small in the overall banking activity, showed a fairly rapid development.Banking institutions in the form of sharia also progress very well. Total assets, third party funding and financing continues to experience growth. Until November 2001, the utilization of funds, financing to deposit ratio (FDR) Islamic banks to reach 115 percent. While most of the financing of Islamic banks are still distributed in the form murabahah namely equal to 68 percent. The percentage of non-performing financings (NPFs) reached 7.37 percent and continues to decline compared to the previous period. Sources of financing open wider community activities with the funding institutions. The performance of finance companies in 2001 in general has improved compared to the year 2000. This situation is reflected by an increase in the total value of business activity, in this case the financing that has been given compared with the previous year. As of December 2001, total loans reached Rp 31.448 trillion from Rp 29.391 trillion, an increase of 7 percent compared with the previous year.

B. DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS
In accordance PROPENAS 2000-2004, the economic development priorities in 2003remain directed towards efforts to accelerate economic recovery accompanied byefforts to overcome the problem of poverty and unemployment increased rapidly during the crisis. Simultaneously, economic development is gradually directed to lay thefoundation of sustainable economic development based on democratic economysystem. IV - 21 1. Tackling Poverty and Meeting Basic Needs Community

1.1 Basic Needs Provision Programme for Poor Families
The main activities of this program in fiscal year 2003 are: (1) The supply andprovision of basic commodities on an ongoing basis, (2) Control of prices of basic commodities, (3) Provision of basic services particularly health and education andother basic facilities and infrastructure; (4 ) Expansion of service network in the provision of basic needs, and (5) Provision of housing and environmental improvements including clean water.

1.2 The Program Development of the Poor of Business Culture
The main activities of this program in fiscal year 2003 are: (1) Increase the capacity ofpoor communities through improved business skills, capital, technology, information,and legal, (2) Develop education and training of business skills, organization,productionmarket networks, and access capital institution, (3) Facilitation of business,productive habits, and the network through technical assistance; (4) The creation ofcooperation networks and partnerships supported by local community organizations, local governments, private sector and universities, (5) Provision of facilities access toproductive resources, (6) Provision of infrastructure and productive economic activities; and (7) Opening of transmigration settlements and community developmentfor farmers and farm workers and refugees who have no agricultural land or landproduction.

1.3 Expansion and Development Program Employment Opportunities
The main activities of this program in fiscal year 2003 are: (1) Optimizing the use of thelabor market in order to reconcile between job seekers with employment users, byproviding adequate services, and implementing guidance for the introduction of officework, (2) Improving delivery mechanisms, development , guidance and a morestringent selection, and seeking a dequate protection for Indonesian workers includingwomen workers who are working abroad, (3) utilize workforce unemployed and a halfunemployed, by identifying prospects and potential employment opportunities throughthe utilization of appropriate technology; business opportunities, and means ofobtaining business assistance, and (4) Facilitating labor mobility both male workersand female workers according to the needs and potential of the region.

1.4 Quality and Productivity Improvement Program Manpower
The main activities of this program in fiscal year 2003 are: (1) Establish agency /agencies and develop competency standardization and certification of workers; (2)Increase the development and empowerment of job training institutions, both organizedby government, private, and companies, (3 ) Improve coordination and integrationacross sectors, including training for workers who will work abroad, and (4)Socialization and cultural value system and p roductive and to develop methods ofincreasing productivity.

1.5 Protection Program and the Institute of Manpower Development
The main activities of this program in fiscal year 2003 are: (1) Develop a system ofindustrial relations and improve the effectiveness of the institutional functions of employment, (2) Socialization of legislation in the field of industrial relations, (3)Resolving industrial disputes in a simple, rapid, precise, fair and consistent, (4)Conducting oversight of the basic rights of workers, among others, include the field ofwages, social security workers, children who are forced to work, (5) Increasingsurveillance of women workers, especially through education and training in all sectorsso as not to discrimination and marginalization; (6) Improve supervision of workaccident and occupational disease, through K3 and Hiperkes; and (7) To provideprotection for Indonesian workers through increased supervision of the implementation of sending workers abroad since the preplacement, during placement and afterplacement.

1.6 Social Security System Development Program
The main activities of this program in fiscal year 2003 are: (1) Developing social security systems that already exist in society, (2) Implement the results have been achieved for the formulation of policies and measures in furtherance of the nationalsocial security system program which includes institutional aspects, programs,legislation, funding and implementation aspects, (3) Improve the handling of socialsecurity for neglected children and the poor, (4) Handling of the poor in isolated andunderdeveloped area, (5) To enhance the capacity and network of institutions of socialprotection communities and local governments in the management of social security,particularly education and health, and (6) Develop a social security system, especiallyat the local level that will protect the community in dealing with poor, abandoned children, the aged, retirement, natural disasters, economic crises and social conflicts.

1.7 Social Insurance Programs
The main activities of this program in fiscal year 2003 are: (1) Develop policy recommendations to improve legislation to protect the interests of service users of social insurance and social insurance companies improve performance, and (2)restructuring measures to improve social health insurance companies .

1.8 Agribusiness Development Program
The main activities of this program in fiscal year 2003 are: (1) Strengthening the development of agribusiness areas of commercial non-rice commodities (crops, horticulture, plantation, animal husbandry and fisheries), (2) Facilitate the development of the agri-based commodities, (3) Enhance the capacity of food production through extensification of agricultural land, and increased cropping intensity, (4) Optimize the efficient use of land through increased cropping intensity, (5) Developing seed systems / perbibitan; (6) Developing industrial and seed systems for food crops, horticulture, fisheries, animal husbandry, plantations , and forestry in the centers of agribusiness development; (7) Enhancing institutional providers of agricultural production inputs; (8) IV - 23 Developing micro enterprises in rural institutional capital; (9) Develop tools and agricultural machinery industries; (10) Provide facilities and infrastructure public in support of agribusiness development in the centers of production; (11) Improving the activity and function of counseling (12) Enhance the creation and implementation of site-specific technology and environmentally friendly; (13) Strengthening the institutional business and agribusiness partnerships; (14) Promoting equality involvement of women and men in agribusiness; (15) Facilitate the marketing of agri products through the provision of market information, market intelligence and market promotion; (16) Improve the ability of local officials in planning, implementation, service, and coordination in agribusiness development; ( 17) Develop protection efforts, standardization of quality products that comply with international regulations; (18) Develop processing industry to improve the quality and added value, and (19) Improve marine aquaculture and the utilization of marginal land for aquaculture and optimizing the utilization of fisheries resources in accordance with the principle of sustainability.

1.9 Food Security Improvement Program
The main activities of this program in fiscal year 2003 are: (1) Increase production of rice and non rice food which is supported by an increase in productivity of factors of production and productivity of farmers and fishermen, (2) Strengthening national food reserves, primarily sourced from production in country, (3) Increasing the productivity of food crops in major production centers, (4) Develop a pattern of intensification of livestock and rice integrated crop management, (5) Increasing intensification through balanced fertilizer use and improvement of other production facilities, (6) Increase the use of tools and farm machinery in the repair of post-harvest handling; (7) Promote the achievement of securing the purchase price received by farmers in an optimal fashion by prioritizing the procurement in the form of grain in the main producing areas; (8) Strengthen the development of services, business networks and facilities in an optimal food logistics business; (9) Develop food stock management, in particular communities, such as the development of rural barns; (10) Develop an early anticipation system to reduce impact of natural disasters; (11) Provide additional assistance to poor families food / food insecurity; (12) Fostering a community indevelop the diversification of production and consumption of food; (13) Develop a backup sources of alternative food sources; (14) Developing food products processed carbohydrates and protein to improve the attractiveness of non-rice food; (15) Facilitating business development and partnerships in the field of food; (16) Developing micro enterprises in rural institutional capital; (17) Develop the institutional capacity of food to ensure food supply in the country and stabilizing the price of staple foods; (18) Encourage the involvement of women's equality and men in creating food security and nutrition improvement; ( 19) Develop food technology institutions and research activities; (20) improve policy coordination and food security programs; (21) Strengthen cooperation in the system and the national food distribution network.

1:10 Program Development and Management of Water Resources
The main activities of this program in fiscal year 2003 are: (1) Re-arrange the dutiesand functions of the central government, provinces, districts and cities that support theindependence of the management of irrigation networks by community organizationsIV - 24 water managers to achieve independence in a democratic management ofirrigation networks; (2) Empower community organizations of water management, (3)Submitting the irrigation management authority to the organization in a democraticsociety of irrigation management, (4) Renewal of financing irrigation network management to ensure the operation and maintenance, rehabilitation and improvement of networks in order to reach self-management, (5 ) Improve the effectiveness and efficiency of utilization of irrigation networks / swamp for agricultureand rural development in increasing farmers' income and we lfare, (6) Performoperation and maintenance of irrigation networks and swamps, as well asrehabilitation and improvement of irrigation networks and bog, (7) Build new irrigationinfrastructure ; (8) Open a new wetland that supports the use of new irrigation networksand optimization of the area that is already available irrigation networks; (9) Increase the protection of the conversion of irrigated land; (10) Increasing the supply of raw water infrastructure to meet the needs of housing, urban, industrial and non-agriculture, and (11) Increase the use of artificial rain technology in order to overcome the naturalphenomena of drought due to El Nino.

2. Scale of Business Develop Micro, Small, Medium, and Cooperative Program
2.1 Creation of Conducive Business Climate
The main activities of this program in fiscal year 2003 are: (1) Settlement Revision Acton SMEs and micro enterprises, the Law on Cooperatives, Law / rules / regulations onsubcontracting, franchising and partnerships, (2) Facilitating the development of a one-stop licensing (One Stop Service - OSS), and (3) Increased capacity of stakeholders(stakeholders) in SME development at national and regional levels in terms of policy coordination and program development, including planning, implementation, andcontrol.

2.2 Improvement Program Access to Productive Resources
The main activities of this program in 2003 were: (1) Expansion of SME capital resources through the strengthening of microfinance institutions (MFIs), the expansion of the role of venture capital, the provision of export credit, investment credit, factoringand leasing industry development, capital markets and expanding role Islamic financial institutions, including the development of second tier banks that extend credit to microand SME companies through commercial banks and nonbank financial institutions, and (2) Capacity and quality of service Business Development Services (BDS)coupled with supervision, monitoring and evaluation for the performance oreffectiveness of BDS provided the incentive system for BDS, and expansion of business support networks in the development of business information service system.

2.3 Entrepreneurship Development Program and PKMK Berkeunggulan Competitive
The main activities of this program in fiscal year 2003 are: (1) Developing an incentivesystem to encourage the growth of new entrepreneurs through business andtechnology incubators, tax incentives, initial capital (seed capital), and IV - 25 ease ofprocedure, regulations, and licensing; and (2) SME development and export-orientedor technology-supported solidbased capital adequacy equivalent (matching funds)rolling, simplification of export procedures, providing technical guidance andfacilitation of legal representation .

3. Creating Economic and Financial Stability
3.1 Maintenance Improvement Program Coordinating Economic Stability
The main activities of this program in fiscal year 2003 are: (1) Perform regular interagency coordination related to the creation of economic stability, including efforts toaccelerate economic recovery, (2) Prepare macro-economic policies among the relevant institutions to maintain economic stability and accelerate economic recovery;and (3) Streamlining the supply and distribution of goods and services, particularly those involving the basic needs of society at large.

4. Stimulating Competitiveness Improvement
4.1 Export Development Program
The main activities of this program in fiscal year 2003 are: (1) Expanding accessand increased market share, both for export destination countries that already exists,as well as for countries new export destination (country markets especially the non-quota and / or the markets of developing countries in Asia, Africa and MiddleEast), through: (a) strengthening the ability of trade delegation (b) involvement in thebusiness world trade mission (c) improving the quality of trade shows and (d)dissemination and extension efforts socialization of the agreement trade diplomacy, (2) Improve performance management information system of export promotion andinternational trade are independent, professional, and easily accessible by the business community, especially by small and medium-sized businesses, (3)Institutional Restructuring of domestic exports and the opening of the office promotionand / or trading house in some countries / regions main export destination, (4)synchronize and simplify export procedures and facilitation services in order toaccelerate exports of finished goods, (5) Holding the establishment of representative offices in some areas of export development potential within the framework of the implementation decentralization, (6) Conducting assessments of various alternativesof new foreign trade facilitation, bilateral and multilateral; (7) Implement a gradual andconsistent result of international trade agreements both bilaterally and multilaterally(AFTA, WTO, APEC) with due regard to national interests; (8 ) Dissemination and implementation of various schemes of cooperation including trade, counter trade(trade returns) with potential trading partners, and (9) Organizing Task Force. Export Development as a means of communication, coordination, and consultation of theparties involved in export development effort that includes representatives of Government, Business, and Universities.

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