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THE DEPARTMENT OF TRAINING AND WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT

Western Australian employment trends and prospects
May 2010

w: dtwd.wa.gov.au

Contents Purpose ...........................................................................................................3 Summary .........................................................................................................3 Employment growth by industry sector 2001-02 to 2016-17 ............................5 Agriculture, forestry and fishing ....................................................................5 Mining...........................................................................................................6 Manufacturing...............................................................................................7 Electricity, gas, water and waste services ....................................................8 Construction .................................................................................................9 Wholesale trade .........................................................................................10 Retail trade .................................................................................................11 Accommodation and food services.............................................................12 Transport, postal and warehousing ............................................................13 Information media and telecommunications ...............................................14 Financial and insurance services ...............................................................15 Rental, hiring and real estate services .......................................................16 Professional, scientific and technical services............................................17 Administrative and support services...........................................................18 Public administration and safety.................................................................19 Education and training................................................................................20 Health care and social assistance ..............................................................21 Arts and recreation services .......................................................................22 Other services ............................................................................................23 Occupational employment growth..................................................................24 Employment Growth by Highest Qualification Attainment Level ....................25 References: ...................................................................................................26

Purpose The aim of this paper is to highlight the employment trends and prospects in Western Australia based on the Monash model developed by the Centre of Policy Studies at Monash University 1 . The paper has three main sections focussing on employment by industry, occupation, and qualification level. Employment growth is examined on a seven year timeframe with the historical period between 2001-02 and 2008-09 and the forecast period between 2009-10 and 2016-17. Summary Based on the results of the Monash model, Western Australia has achieved consistently strong employment growth, with 218,100 new jobs created between 2001-02 and 2008-09 (an annual average employment growth rate of 3.0 per cent). The following industries have been the main drivers of employment growth during this period: construction (40,100 jobs); mining (32,000); health care and social assistance (28,300); retail trade (23,200); and public administration and safety (19,400). In the forecast seven years to 2016-17, employment in Western Australia is expected to grow by 239,000 persons (an annual average employment growth rate of 2.7 per cent). All 19 industries are expected to experience positive employment growth between 2009-10 and 2016-17. The industries expected to provide the largest number of new jobs in the seven years to 2016-17 are retail trade (23,500); manufacturing (22,900); health care and social assistance (21,800); construction (21,600); and education and training (19,700). In the seven years to 2008-09, professionals (46,600 persons), technicians and trades workers (46,000), and managers (42,800), experienced the largest increases in employment growth. Collectively, these three groupings accounted for 62.1 per cent of the total occupational employment growth in Western Australia. In the forecast period 2009-10 to 2016-17, the three occupation groupings expected to experience the strongest increases in employment growth are professionals (51,700), technicians and trades workers (39,700), and managers (39,300). Together these three groups are predicted to account for 54.7 per cent of jobs growth. Between 2001-02 and 2008-09, persons with no post school qualifications (67,300 persons), bachelor degree (46,900), and certificate III or IV (39,200), experienced the biggest increases in employment growth accounting for 70.3 per cent of new jobs. In the seven years to 2016-17, persons with the following qualifications are expected to dominate the future job market: bachelor degree (67,100); certificate III or IV (65,300); and diploma (42,600). Collectively, persons in possession of these three qualifications account for 73.2 per cent of total future employment growth.

1

These Monash forecasts are based on information available as at September 2009. It needs to be noted that there is a certain degree of uncertainty attached to any forecast.

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

Page 3

WESTERN AUSTRALIA EMPLOYMENT GROWTH by Industry* 2001/02 - 2016/17
Growth 2001/02 - 2008/09 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Mining Manufacturing Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Transport, Postal and Warehousing Information Media and Telecommunications Financial and Insurance Services Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Administrative and Support Services Public Administration and Safety Education and Training Health Care and Social Assistance Arts and Recreation Services Other Services
-15,000 0 8,900 5,000 25,000 45,000 4,800 2,800 -1,200 2,000 400 7,900 3,700 3,800 15,000 18,200 5,100 9,000 19,400 14,200 11,900 19,700 28,300 21,800 -2,500 10,600 16,700 12,600 -100 9,100 23,200 23,500 3,100 40,100 21,600 -1,900 9,000 32,000 18,400 11,700 22,900 11,500

Growth 2009/10 - 2016/17

Number of Jobs

Source: Monash September 2009 Note: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100. * Industry is classified according to the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC) 2006.

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

Page 4

Employment growth by industry sector 2001/02 to 2016/17 Agriculture, forestry and fishing In 2009-10, the agriculture, forestry and fishing industry employed 39,100 persons or 3.3 per cent of the Western Australian workforce. The industry is made up of the following five sectors: agriculture; aquaculture; forestry and logging; fishing, hunting and trapping; and agriculture, forestry and fishing support services.

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Total Employment 2001/02 to 2016/17
60

50

Employed (000's)

40

30

20

10

0
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-0 2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-6 2016-7

Source: Monash, September 2009

Over the seven year period to 2008-09, this industry has experienced a downward trend in employment, losing on average 300 jobs per year. However, Monash forecasts positive employment growth of 3.0 per cent per annum for the agriculture, forestry and fishing industry between 2009-10 and 2016-17. This compares with an average annual growth rate of 2.7 per cent across all industries over the same period. The current forecast indicates there will be approximately 48,000 persons employed in this industry in 2016-17, a growth of 9,000 new jobs over the period. Nationally, employment in this industry is forecast to grow at 2.0 per cent per annum.

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

Page 5

Mining Although mining’s contribution to Gross State Product (GSP) is the highest of all industries ($45.1 billion or 29.1 per cent of GSP in 2009-10), it is only the eighth largest employer in the state, accounting for 5.9 per cent of the workforce or 69,500 persons in 2009-10. The mining industry comprises the following five sectors: coal mining; oil and gas extraction; metal ore mining; non-metallic mineral mining and quarrying; exploration and other mining support services.

Mining Total Employment 2001/02 to 2016/17
100 90 80

Employed (000's)

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-0 2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-6 2016-7

Source: Monash, September 2009

According to the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEEWR, 2009) employment in the mining industry is influenced by many domestic and international factors including exchange rate movements, international demand and the world supply of mining products. In the seven years to 2008-09, employment in the mining industry grew by a robust 10.3 per cent per annum or 4,600 jobs per year (employment in this industry has risen for seven consecutive years). The growth in the mining industry will continue to be driven by rapid industrialisation in emerging economies, in particular China 2 , which is underpinning steady demand for Western Australia’s mineral and petroleum resources (Department of Mines and Petroleum, 2009). For the period 2009-10 to 2016-17 employment growth in the mining industry in Western Australia is expected to be 3.4 per cent per annum. Of the 28,600 mining jobs forecast to be created nationally over seven years, 18,400 are expected to be in Western Australia. The largest increase in jobs in the mining industry is projected for the metal ore mining sector (10,400 jobs). It is important to note that improved prospects in the mining industry is expected to influence employment growth in other

2

According to the Department of Mines and Petroleum (DMP) 2009, China currently dominates Western Australia’s iron ore exports, accounting for 64 per cent or $21 billion of the total amount shipped for 2008-09.

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

Page 6

industries, including construction, manufacturing, and retail trade (DEEWR, 2009). Manufacturing In 2009-10 the manufacturing industry employed 97,200 persons or 8.3 per cent of the Western Australian workforce (the fourth largest employer). The manufacturing industry consists of the following 15 sectors: food product manufacturing; beverage and tobacco product manufacturing; textile, leather, clothing and footwear manufacturing; wood product manufacturing; pulp, paper and converted paper product manufacturing; printing (including the reproduction of recorded media); petroleum and coal product manufacturing; basic chemical and chemical product manufacturing; polymer product and rubber product manufacturing; non metallic mineral product manufacturing; primary metal and metal product manufacturing; fabricated metal product manufacturing; transport equipment manufacturing; machinery and equipment manufacturing; and furniture and other manufacturing.

Manufacturing Total Employment 2001/02 to 2016/17
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-0 2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-6 2016-7

Employed (000's)

Source: Monash, September 2009

The manufacturing industry faces many challenges including the appreciation of the Australian dollar and international competition (especially from China and India who have a comparative advantage in labour costs). Between 2001-02 and 2008-09, the manufacturing industry created a total of 11,700 new jobs, representing an average annual employment growth rate of 1.8 per cent. In the forecast seven years to 2016-17, employment in this industry is predicted to grow by 22,900 persons or 3.1 per cent per annum. Nationally, employment growth in the manufacturing industry is only predicted to be 2.0 per cent per annum for the same period. The forecast jobs growth for the manufacturing industry is possibly a result of expected improved prospects in related industries such as mining and construction.

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

Page 7

Electricity, gas, water and waste services In 2009-10 the electricity, gas, water and waste services industry employed 18,800 persons or 1.6 per cent of the Western Australian workforce. This industry is divided into four sectors: electricity supply; gas supply; water supply, sewerage and drainage services; and waste collection, treatment and disposal services.

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Total Employment 2001/02 to 2016/17
25

20

Employed (000's)

15

10

5

0
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-0 2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-6 2016-7

Source: Monash, September 2009

Employment in the electricity, gas, water and waste services industry is affected by economic cycles and industry policies such as deregulation of energy markets (DEEWR, 2009). In the seven years to 2008-09 employment in this industry grew by 11,500 persons, or by an annual average rate of 13.4 per cent (the highest average annual employment growth rate of the 19 ANZSIC industries). Between 2009-10 and 2016-17 employment in this industry is anticipated to grow at 2.2 per cent per annum, which equates to an increase of around 3,100 jobs. Nationally, employment in this industry is only expected to grow at 1.2 per cent per annum during the forecast period.

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

Page 8

Construction In 2009-10 the construction industry employed 120,300 persons or 10.3 per cent of the Western Australian workforce, making it the second largest employing industry. The construction industry is divided into three sectors: building construction; heavy and civil engineering construction; and construction services.

Construction Total Employment 2001/02 to 2016/17
180 160 140

Employed (000's)

120 100 80 60 40 20 0
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-0 2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-6 2016-7

Source: Monash, September 2009

Employment growth in this industry is strongly influenced by economic cycles, and in the seven years to 2008-09 the industry experienced robust employment growth of 5.9 per cent per annum. This equates to 40,100 new jobs over the period, which is the highest job creation of all 19 ANZSIC industries. The growth in construction jobs was not only influenced by the increase in mining related jobs experienced during the resources boom, but was also bolstered by the increased demand for housing in Western Australia. Between 2009-10 and 2016-17 the total number of new jobs created in this industry is expected to be 21,600, equating to an annual average employment growth rate of 2.4 per cent. Employment growth in this industry will continue to be driven by residential building activities and the strong demand for engineering construction arising from resource sector projects such as the Gorgon LNG project, Ord-East Kimberley Expansion project and the Oakajee Industrial Estate and Port project.

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

Page 9

Wholesale trade In 2009-10 the wholesale trade industry employed 42,700 persons or 3.7 per cent of the Western Australian workforce. This industry is divided into six sectors: basic material wholesaling; machinery and equipment wholesaling; motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts wholesaling; grocery, liquor and tobacco product wholesaling; other goods wholesaling; and commission based wholesaling.

Wholesale Trade Total Employment 2001/02 to 2016/17
60

50

Employed (000's)

40

30

20

10

0
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-0 2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-6 2016-7

Source: Monash, September 2009

Between 2001-02 and 2008-09 employment in this industry remained relatively steady, with a decline of a 100 jobs during the period. In the seven years to 2016-17 employment is expected to grow at 2.8 per cent per annum, which is marginally above the industry average growth of 2.7 per cent per annum. The number of jobs created in the forecast period is predicted to be 9,100 which will take employment in this industry to 51,800 persons in 2016-17. Nationally, employment in this industry is only expected to grow at 2.3 per cent per annum.

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

Page 10

Retail trade In 2009-10 the retail trade industry employed 139,900 persons or 12.0 per cent of the Western Australian workforce, making it the largest employer in the state. The retail trade industry can roughly be divided into the following five sectors: motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts retailing; fuel retailing; food retailing; other store based retailing; non store retailing and retail commission based buying and/or selling.

Retail Trade Total Employment 2001/02 to 2016/17
180 160 140

Employed (000's)

120 100 80 60 40 20 0
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-0 2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-6 2016-7

Source: Monash, September 2009

According to DEEWR (2009), the retail industry is strongly influenced by the economic cycle, interest rates, disposable income levels, consumer confidence and the technological environment. In the seven years to 2008-09, employment in this industry grew by 23,200 persons, or at an annual average growth rate of 2.7 per cent. In the seven year forecast period to 2016-17, it is expected that employment in the retail trade industry will continue to grow at 2.2 per cent per annum. This would result in the creation of 23,500 new jobs in this industry during the forecast period. Nationally, employment in this industry is only expected to grow at 1.3 per cent per annum.

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

Page 11

Accommodation and food services In 2009-10 the accommodation and food services industry employed 65,600 persons or 5.6 per cent of the Western Australian workforce. The accommodation and food services industry is divided into two sectors: accommodation; and food and beverage services.

Accommodation and Food Services Total Employment 2001/02 to 2016/17
80 70 60

Employed (000's)

50 40 30 20 10 0
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-0 2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-6 2016-7

Source: Monash, September 2009

Employment in the accommodation and food services industry is not only influenced by international economic and geopolitical factors, but is also sensitive to the discretionary income of the population (DEEWR, 2009). Between 2001-02 and 2008-09 employment in this industry has declined at a rate of 0.5 per cent per annum, which equates to a loss of 2,500 jobs over the period. In the seven years to 2016-17, employment in accommodation and food services is predicted to grow at 2.2 per cent per annum, corresponding to a total increase of 10,600 jobs over the period. Nationally, employment in this industry is only forecast to grow at 1.2 per cent per annum.

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

Page 12

Transport, postal and warehousing In 2009-10 the transport, postal and warehousing industry employed 60,000 persons or 5.1 per cent of the Western Australian workforce. The transport, postal and warehousing industry is roughly divided into eight sectors: road transport; rail transport; water transport; air and space transport; other transport; postal and courier pick-up and delivery services; transport support services; and warehousing and storage services.

Transport, Postal and Warehousing Total Employment 2001/02 to 2016/17
80 70 60

Employed (000's)

50 40 30 20 10 0
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-0 2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-6 2016-7

Source: Monash, September 2009

The transport, postal and warehousing industry is vital to the economy and underpins activities within a diverse range of industries. It responds to economic cycles as movements in both raw materials and consumer goods contract or expand (DEEWR, 2009). Between 2001-02 and 2008-09, employment in this industry grew by a total of 16,700 persons, reflecting an annual average employment growth rate of 4.8 per cent. In the seven year forecast period, employment in this industry is projected to grow at 2.8 per cent per annum. The resulting number of persons employed in this industry in 2016-17 is expected to be 72,700, a total growth of 12,600 jobs over the period. More than half (56.2 per cent) of jobs created in this industry in the forecast period are expected to be in the road transport sector. Nationally, employment in this industry is anticipated to grow at 1.8 per cent per annum.

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

Page 13

Information media and telecommunications In 2009-10 the information media and telecommunications industry employed 14,000 persons or 1.2 per cent of the Western Australian workforce, which makes it the smallest employing industry in the state. This industry consists of seven sectors: publishing (except internet and music publishing); motion picture and sound recording activities; broadcasting (except internet); internet publishing and broadcasting; telecommunications services; internet service providers, web search portals and data processing services; and library and other information services.

Information Media and Telecommunications Total Employment 2001/02 to 2016/17
20 18 16

Employed (000's)

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-0 2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-6 2016-7

Source: Monash, September 2009

In the seven year period to 2008-09, employment in this industry declined at a rate of 1.1 per cent per annum, equating to a total of 1,200 jobs lost during the period. In the seven year forecast period, employment is expected to buck the declining trend and increase on average at a rate of 1.9 per cent per annum. Between 2009-10 and 2016-17 employment in this industry should increase by 2,000 persons. Nationally, employment in this industry is only expected to grow by 0.7 per cent per annum in the forecast period.

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

Page 14

Financial and insurance services In 2009-10 the financial and insurance services industry employed 29,200 persons or 2.5 per cent of the Western Australian workforce. The industry is divided into three sectors: finance; insurance and superannuation funds; and auxiliary finance and insurance services.

Financial and Insurance Services Total Employment 2001/02 to 2016/17
40 35 30

Employed (000's)

25 20 15 10 5 0
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-0 2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-6 2016-7

Source: Monash, September 2009

According to DEEWR (2009), the financial and insurance services industry is sensitive to numerous factors, including the macroeconomic environment, financial regulation, the global economic environment, industry policies, and changes in technology. Over the period 2001-02 to 2008-09, employment in this industry rose by a total of 400 persons, representing an annual average employment rate of 0.2 per cent. Employment in this industry during the seven years to 2016-17 is predicted to improve with a growth rate of 3.5 per cent per annum. This compares with an average annual growth rate of 2.7 per cent per annum across all industries. Monash forecasts that 7,900 jobs will be created in this industry between 2009-10 and 2016-17. Nationally, employment in the financial and insurance services industry is predicted to grow at 1.7 per cent per annum in the forecast period.

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

Page 15

Rental, hiring and real estate services In 2009-10 the rental, hiring and real estate services industry employed 23,300 persons or 2.0 per cent of the Western Australian workforce. This industry is roughly divided into two sectors: rental and hiring services (except real estate); and property operators and real estate services.

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Total Employment 2001/02 to 2016/17
30

25

Employed (000's)

20

15

10

5

0
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-0 2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-6 2016-7

Source: Monash, September 2009

Employment in this industry is influenced not only by international economic and geopolitical factors, but is also sensitive to business profitability and investment (DEEWR, 2009). The rental, hiring and real estate services industry showed consistent employment growth between 2001-02 and 2008-09, with an annual average employment growth rate of 2.5 per cent. This represents a total increase of 3,700 jobs over the period. In the forecast seven years to 2016-17, employment in this industry is expected to grow at 2.2 per cent per annum, equating to a total of 3,800 new jobs. Nationally, employment in this industry is only expected to grow by 1.7 per cent per annum in the forecast period.

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

Page 16

Professional, scientific and technical services In 2009-10 the professional, scientific and technical services industry employed 72,400 persons or 6.2 per cent of the Western Australian workforce. This industry is divided into two sectors: professional, scientific and technical services; and computer system design and related services.

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Total Employment 2001/02 to 2016/17
100 90 80

Employed (000's)

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-0 2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-6 2016-7

Source: Monash, September 2009

Despite a significant drop in employment between 2007-08 and 2008-09, in the seven years to 2008-09, employment in this industry grew by 15,000 persons. This represents an annual average employment growth rate of 3.3 per cent for the industry over the seven year period. This compares with an annual average growth rate of 3 per cent per annum across all industries during the same period. Forecasts for the seven year period to 2016-17 show that employment in this industry is expected to continue to grow robustly at 3.3 per cent per annum, creating 18,200 new jobs over the period. Nationally, employment in the professional, scientific and technical services industry is only expected to grow at 2.3 per cent per annum.

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

Page 17

Administrative and support services In 2009-10 the administrative and support services industry employed 38,200 persons or 3.3 per cent of the Western Australian workforce. This industry is divided into two sectors: administrative services; and building cleaning, pest control and other support services.

Administrative and Support Services Total Employment 2001/02 to 2016/17
50 45 40

Employed (000's)

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-0 2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-6 2016-7

Source: Monash, September 2009

According to DEEWR (2009), the extensiveness of the administrative and support services industry means that employment levels within the industry tend to be subject to flow on effects from private consumption both domestically, in areas such as employment services, and internationally, in areas such as travel agency and tour arrangement services. Employment in this industry has fluctuated over the seven years to 2008-09, but has increased overall by 5,100 persons. Between 2001-02 and 2008-09, employment grew at a steady 2.1 per cent per annum. In the forecast seven years to 2016-17, employment is predicted to grow at 3.1 per cent per annum. The resulting number of persons employed in this industry in 2016-17 is predicted to be 47,200, equating to a growth of 9,000 jobs over the period. Nationally, employment in this industry in the forecast period is only expected to grow at 2.1 per cent per annum.

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

Page 18

Public administration and safety In 2009-10 the public administration and safety industry employed 71,000 persons or 6.1 per cent of the Western Australian workforce. This industry consists of three sectors: public administration; defence; and public order, safety and regulatory services.

Public Administration and Safety Total Employment 2001/02 to 2016/17
90 80 70

Employed (000's)

60 50 40 30 20 10 0
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-0 2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-6 2016-7

Source: Monash, September 2009

Employment in the public administration and safety industry is vulnerable to fluctuations in the economy (DEEWR, 2009). Between 2001-02 and 2008-09 employment levels have been varied, but have increased overall by 19,400 persons. The average annual employment growth rate for this industry during the period was 4.8 per cent, which is markedly higher than the 3.0 per cent per annum for all industries. In the seven years to 2016-17, employment is expected to grow at 2.6 per cent per annum, equating to 14,200 new jobs over the period. Nationally, employment in this industry is only forecast to grow at 1.7 per cent per annum.

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

Page 19

Education and training In 2009-10 the education and training industry employed 84,000 persons or 7.2 per cent of the Western Australian workforce (fifth largest employer in the state). This industry is divided into three sectors: preschool and school education; tertiary education; and adult, community and other education.

Education and Training Total Employment 2001/02 to 2016/17
120

100

Employed (000's)

80

60

40

20

0
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-0 2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-6 2016-7

Source: Monash, September 2009

According to DEEWR (2009), employment in this industry is influenced by a number of factors including the number of school age children in the population, school retention rates, government policy, average class size and developments in private school education, including specialist schools. Over the period 2001-02 to 2008-09, employment in the education and training industry rose by 11,900 persons, representing an average annual growth rate of 2.2 per cent. In the seven years to 2016-17, employment in this industry is forecast to grow at 3.1 per cent per annum, resulting in the creation of 19,700 new jobs. Nationally, employment in this industry is expected to grow at 2.0 per cent per annum. In the future, it is expected that there will be an increase in the retirement rate of existing teachers due to an ageing workforce, giving rise to stronger demand for new teaching graduates. In the meantime, higher school retention rates and improvements in the quality of education are expected to create continued demand for additional workers in the education industry (DEEWR, 2009).

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

Page 20

Health care and social assistance In 2009-10 the health care and social assistance industry employed 116,500 persons or 10.0 per cent of the Western Australian workforce (third largest employer in the state). This industry consists of four sectors: hospitals; medical and other health care services; residential care services; and social assistance services.

Health Care and Social Assistance Total Employment 2001/02 to 2016/17
160 140 120

Employed (000's)

100 80 60 40 20 0
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-0 2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-6 2016-7

Source: Monash, September 2009

Employment in the health care and social assistance industry is influenced by many factors such as the ageing of the population, the demand for new and improved health services, technological changes, government budget pressures, the growth of community and home based services and the continuing growth in demand for child care services (DEEWR, 2009). These factors are likely to result in an increase in future demand for health services. Between 2001-02 and 2008-09, the health care and social assistance industry created a total of 28,300 jobs, which contributes to an annual average employment growth rate of 4.1 per cent. In the forecast seven years to 2016-17, employment in this industry is predicted to increase by 21,800 persons, corresponding to an average annual growth rate of 2.5 per cent. Nationally, employment in this industry is expected to grow at 1.4 per cent per annum.

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

Page 21

Arts and recreation services In 2009-10 the arts and recreation services industry employed 19,100 persons or 1.6 per cent of the Western Australian workforce. This industry is divided into four sectors: heritage activities; creative and performing arts activities; sports and recreation activities; and gambling activities.

Arts and Recreation Services Total Employment 2001/02 to 2016/17
25

20

Employed (000's)

15

10

5

0
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-0 2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-6 2016-7

Source: Monash, September 2009

Between 2001-02 and 2008-09, employment in arts and recreation services experienced some fluctuations, but increased on the whole by 4,800. This equates to an average increase of 4.2 per cent per annum. In the forecast seven years to 2016/17, employment in this industry is expected to grow at an annual average rate of 2.0 per cent. This translates to the creation of 2,800 new jobs over the period. Nationally, employment in this industry is only forecast to grow at an average rate of 0.9 per cent per annum.

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

Page 22

Other services In 2009-10 the other services industry employed 48,200 persons or 4.1 per cent of the Western Australian workforce. This industry consists of three sectors: repair and maintenance; personal and other services; and private households employing staff and undifferentiated goods – and service producing activities of households for own use.

Other Services Total Employment 2001/02 to 2016/17
60

50

Employed (000's)

40

30

20

10

0
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-0 2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-6 2016-7

Source: Monash, September 2009

According to DEEWR (2009), due to the breadth of the other services industry, employment levels tend to be subject to flow on effects from private consumption, in areas such as hairdressing and laundry services. Although the employment level in 2001-02 and 2008-09 remained unchanged at 48,000 persons, employment growth within this industry has been fairly volatile. During the seven year period, employment reached a peak in 2002-03 (55,000 persons) and a low in 2005-06 (42,500). In the seven year forecast period to 2016-17, employment in this industry is predicted to grow on average at 2.4 per cent per annum, corresponding to a total of 8,900 new jobs. Nationally, employment in this industry is expected to grow at 1.4 per cent per annum.

Western Australian Employment Trends and Prospects, May 2010

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Occupational employment growth The graph below shows a comparison of employment growth across the main occupational divisions in Western Australia for the period 2001-02 to 2008-09 (historical) and 2009-10 to 2016-17 (forecast), produced by the Centre for Policy Studies at Monash University (September 2009).

WESTERN AUSTRALIA EMPLOYMENT GROWTH by Occupation* 2001/02 - 2016/17
Growth 2001/02 - 2008/09 Managers Professionals Technicians and Trades Workers Community and Personal Service Workers Clerical and Administrative Workers Sales Workers Machinery Operators And Drivers Labourers
0 3,400 10,400 25,200 21,900 22,300 26,100 20,000 40,000 60,000 19,100 21,000 12,600 28,800

Growth 2009/10 - 2016/17
42,800 39,300 46,600 51,700 46,000 39,700

Number of Jobs

Source: Monash September 2009 Note: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100. * Occupation is classified according to the Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (ANZSCO) 2006.

Employment prospects are dependant on a number of factors including the general economic environment, opportunities within industries and occupations, and the level of employment demand for specific skills. Between 2001-02 and 2008-09, professionals experienced the highest increase in the number of new jobs at 46,600. This was followed by technicians and trades workers with 46,000 new jobs, and managers at 42,800. In the seven years to 2016-17, professionals, technicians and trades workers and managers are anticipated to collectively account for 54.7 per cent of jobs growth. In the seven years to 2008-09, employment in the clerical and administrative occupations grew by 12,600 persons or 1.1 per cent per annum. However, in the forecast period, employment in this occupational group is set to increase by 28,800 persons or 2.3 per cent annum. Employment for sales workers is set to increase dramatically in the forecast period with a growth of 1,500 jobs per year, compared to growth of 500 jobs per year for the period 2001-02 to 2008-09.

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In the forecast seven years to 2016-17, the most substantial increases in new jobs in terms of specific occupations are expected in the following areas:  construction, distribution and production managers (8,100)  office and practice managers (7,100)  store persons (6,400)  construction and mining labourers (6,400)  engineering professionals (6,300)  business administration managers (5,900)  fabrication engineering trades workers (5,900)  chief executives, general managers and legislators (5,300)  school teachers (5,300)  building and engineering technicians (5,300)

Employment Growth by Highest Qualification Attainment Level Based on projections from Monash, the graph below illustrates employment growth by highest qualification attainment levels for the period 2001/02 to 2008/09 (historical) and 2009/10 to 2016/17 (forecast).

WESTERN AUSTRALIA EMPLOYMENT GROWTH by Qualification Level 2001/02 - 2016/17
Growth 2001/02 - 2008/09 Post-graduate degree Graduate diploma Bachelor degree Diploma Certificate III or IV Certificate I or II No post school quals 0 9,500 12,400 67,300 17,900 20,000 40,000 Number of Jobs 60,000 80,000 34,200 42,600 39,200 65,300 2,400 13,100 46,900 67,100 18,700 20,600 Growth 2009/10 - 2016/17

Source: Monash September 2009 Note: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100.

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Between 2001-02 and 2008-09, the largest increase in employment was for persons without post school qualifications (67,300 jobs). Persons holding a bachelor degree experienced the second largest increase in employment (46,900 jobs), with an annual average employment growth rate 3.9 per cent. In the forecast seven years to 2016-17, the largest employment growth is expected for individuals holding a bachelor degree (67,100 jobs), followed by those with a certificate III or IV qualification (65,300 jobs). While persons without post school qualifications accounted for 30.8 per cent of employment growth during the seven year period to 2008-09, during the forecast period to 2016-17, individuals without post school qualifications are projected to account for only 7.5 per cent of employment growth. This declining share of employment growth is likely to be a reflection of industry’s increased demand for skills and qualifications.

References: Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations 2009, Employment Outlook, Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations, Canberra, viewed 22 March 2010, deewr.gov.au Department of Mines and Petroleum 2009, Western Australian Mineral and Petroleum Statistics Digest 2008-09, Department of Mines and Petroleum, Perth, viewed 22 March 2010, dmp.wa.gov.au Monash University Centre of Policy Studies September 2009, Monash Economic Forecasts, Monash University Centre of Policy Studies, Clayton.

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