GEnesis Random Variables
Content
OFF-GRID ELECTRIFICATION OF BTS STATION USING RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES ³Integration leads the charge´
September 15, 2009
8 RANDOM VARIABLES Economic business model for the Indian market
Uninterrupted Power Supply to BTS Stations Drives the Growth
Base Transceiver Station
BTS: A piece of equipment that facilitates wireless communication between user equipment (UE) and a network BTS applicable for any kind of wireless communication Requires uninterrupted power supply
Features of the Proposal
Provide 24X7 power backup for telecom Base Transceiver Station (BTS) using a hybrid of wind turbines, PV cells & fuel cells. Easily expandable to semi-urban & rural areas Negligible O&M costs Shorter Pay Back Period enabling the telecom players to recover the CAPEX Improve brand GE by contributing to India¶s green GDP & pecuniary benefits through carbon trading
Uninterrupted Power Supply to BTS Stations Drives the Growth
Market Potential
Unprecedented growth in telecom subscriber (CAGR projected ~18%) *Approximately 350,000 BTS required by Mar 2010, up from 110,000 BTS as on Mar 2008 BTS, an intermediary between telecom exchange & mobile user needs continuous & reliable power supply since the availability of power is not consistent in India. Presently they use Diesel Generators to power up the BTS station
Business Models
Captive: Owned & operated by telecom operators Operator Controlled: Operator consolidates tower infrastructure & hives it off as a separate company Pool & Share: Operators jointly setup an independent company for sharing tower infrastructure Build & Operate: independent tower companies operate on build & operate model
Marketing Strategy
Potential benefits of grid independent system needs to be communicated Carbon trading to earn carbon credits
*Source: TRAI, Report 2008
Technical & Economical Feasibility
Device Description End-use Power Output (W) = 0.5 × Swept Area × Air Density × Wind Speed3 Size
Micro Wind Turbines
Conversion of wind energy into useful energy using micro wind turbines
65000 MW
+
Solar Energy Use of photo-voltaic devices to generate electricity Continuous supply & storage of power is made possible
5000 trillion kWH
+
Fuel Cells Utilizes the reverse hydrolysis process wherein H2 combines with O2 to produce electricity and produces water and heat as by-products Back up power in order to ensure consistency of power supply
= Combination of Wind, solar & Fuel cells
Optimal combination of all the three is decided by HOMER which ensures optimum usage of the available resources Consistent power supply to BTS stations at reduced cost
Telecom operators market tapped
Financial Analysis
CAPEX
Investment Particulars Cost of 12KW Wind Turbine Solar cell Cost/ Watt Cost for 12KW (Solar Cell) Total Cost for the hybrid system Govt. Subsidy (50%) Total Installation Cost INR 1000000 130 1560000 2500000 1250000 1250000
Expensive OPEX
Current OPEX
Particulars Power consumed/day of a typical BTS station Diesel Consumption/hr (lts) Total consumption/ yr Cost/Unit Total Expense (in Rs.) Grid Based 90 32850 5 164250 DG 15KVA 2.5 21900 35 766500
Pay Back Period ± Scenario 1
Pay Back Period ± Scenario 2
*In the above calculation we have not taken into consideration the operation and maintenance cost to be incurred in maintenance of the system
Economical Feasibility
Solar - DG Hybrid
CAPEX Pay Back Period
Solar ± Fuel Cell Hybrid
CAPEX Pay Back Period
Economical Feasibility
*Solar - Wind Hybrid
CAPEX
Pay Back Period
*Most feasible & worthy investment with a reduced payback period
*Refer: Appendix
Project Profitability
Combination NPV Solar + Wind Rs.1,299,112.26 Solar+ Fuel Cell Rs.1,791,039.80 Solar+ DG Rs.429,359.31
IRR 20.51% 24.12% 16.14%
- Depending on the Area profile, suitable combination will be chosen - All 3 combinations are profitable & provides a positive NPV & IRR
Drivers & Challenges
Challenges
Sizing of hybrid system Replication by competitors
Drivers
Power shortages and demand supply gap in India Demand from telecom operators Environmental awarenesss Consistency of wind power availability
Marketing & Financial Strategy
Critical Customers
Communication tower companies Telecom Companies Government of India
Marketing Strategy
Advertorials in telecom related magazines Telecom conferences Internet blogs Newspaper spread-ads
Carbon Trading
Financial Strategy
Bank loans & offerings from IREDA Govt. subsidies GE internal funding for renewable power project
*Carbon credits resulting in additional cashflows **Not accounted during NPV calculation
The Road Ahead
Rural Area Power Supply
This Integration model would help in scaling up the power supply to rural areas through Grid Independent systems powering up rural India Government support would help GE to foray into rural & semi-urban lighting projects in a large scale Setup cost can be leveraged as against the ones used for powering the BTS station. This model can be extended to various areas which may require wireless communication systems (eg. Railways, Military, security systems etc.)
Thank you
email: [email protected]
Appendix
Wind profile in India
Wind Speed Power Output (kW) Power output in watts
Name of city
(Velocity)3
Area
Air Density
Jharsugada Ambala Bhopal Cudallore Guwahati Madurai Pune Shimla Jodhpur
4.25 3.70 5.65 5.16 2.61 5.19 4.75 3.37 5.50
76.77 50.65 180.36 137.39 17.78 139.80 107.17 38.27 166.38
7.07 7.07 7.07 7.07 7.07 7.07 7.07 7.07 7.07
1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20
0.33 0.21 0.76 0.58 0.08 0.59 0.45 0.16 0.71
325.41 214.72 764.56 582.39 75.37 592.61 454.30 162.24 705.26
Goa
8.60
636.06
7.07
1.20
2.70
2696.24
Bhubaneswar Lucknow
7.12 3.00
360.94 27.00
7.07 7.07
1.20 1.20
1.53 0.11
1530.04 114.45
Hyderabad
10.14
1042.59
7.07
1.20
4.42
4419.54
Appendix
Total CO2 released by 1 DG in tonnes (assuming a power 2.68 * 2 *2.5* 365 *10-3 = 4.891 outage of 2 hours per day)
No. of BTS using the proposed system (Assuming 50 % of the total)
((350000-110000) * 0.5) = 120,000
Total CO2 released by the sum total of BTS towers So the carbon credits generated by the system
4.891* 120000 = 586920 586920
Value generated (Assuming that a carbon credit sells for 586920*250 = Rs 146,730,000 Rs 250 in the open market)
Appendix: Financial Projections
Microsoft Office Excel 97-2003 Worksh
September 15, 2009
8 RANDOM VARIABLES Economic business model for the Indian market
Uninterrupted Power Supply to BTS Stations Drives the Growth
Base Transceiver Station
BTS: A piece of equipment that facilitates wireless communication between user equipment (UE) and a network BTS applicable for any kind of wireless communication Requires uninterrupted power supply
Features of the Proposal
Provide 24X7 power backup for telecom Base Transceiver Station (BTS) using a hybrid of wind turbines, PV cells & fuel cells. Easily expandable to semi-urban & rural areas Negligible O&M costs Shorter Pay Back Period enabling the telecom players to recover the CAPEX Improve brand GE by contributing to India¶s green GDP & pecuniary benefits through carbon trading
Uninterrupted Power Supply to BTS Stations Drives the Growth
Market Potential
Unprecedented growth in telecom subscriber (CAGR projected ~18%) *Approximately 350,000 BTS required by Mar 2010, up from 110,000 BTS as on Mar 2008 BTS, an intermediary between telecom exchange & mobile user needs continuous & reliable power supply since the availability of power is not consistent in India. Presently they use Diesel Generators to power up the BTS station
Business Models
Captive: Owned & operated by telecom operators Operator Controlled: Operator consolidates tower infrastructure & hives it off as a separate company Pool & Share: Operators jointly setup an independent company for sharing tower infrastructure Build & Operate: independent tower companies operate on build & operate model
Marketing Strategy
Potential benefits of grid independent system needs to be communicated Carbon trading to earn carbon credits
*Source: TRAI, Report 2008
Technical & Economical Feasibility
Device Description End-use Power Output (W) = 0.5 × Swept Area × Air Density × Wind Speed3 Size
Micro Wind Turbines
Conversion of wind energy into useful energy using micro wind turbines
65000 MW
+
Solar Energy Use of photo-voltaic devices to generate electricity Continuous supply & storage of power is made possible
5000 trillion kWH
+
Fuel Cells Utilizes the reverse hydrolysis process wherein H2 combines with O2 to produce electricity and produces water and heat as by-products Back up power in order to ensure consistency of power supply
= Combination of Wind, solar & Fuel cells
Optimal combination of all the three is decided by HOMER which ensures optimum usage of the available resources Consistent power supply to BTS stations at reduced cost
Telecom operators market tapped
Financial Analysis
CAPEX
Investment Particulars Cost of 12KW Wind Turbine Solar cell Cost/ Watt Cost for 12KW (Solar Cell) Total Cost for the hybrid system Govt. Subsidy (50%) Total Installation Cost INR 1000000 130 1560000 2500000 1250000 1250000
Expensive OPEX
Current OPEX
Particulars Power consumed/day of a typical BTS station Diesel Consumption/hr (lts) Total consumption/ yr Cost/Unit Total Expense (in Rs.) Grid Based 90 32850 5 164250 DG 15KVA 2.5 21900 35 766500
Pay Back Period ± Scenario 1
Pay Back Period ± Scenario 2
*In the above calculation we have not taken into consideration the operation and maintenance cost to be incurred in maintenance of the system
Economical Feasibility
Solar - DG Hybrid
CAPEX Pay Back Period
Solar ± Fuel Cell Hybrid
CAPEX Pay Back Period
Economical Feasibility
*Solar - Wind Hybrid
CAPEX
Pay Back Period
*Most feasible & worthy investment with a reduced payback period
*Refer: Appendix
Project Profitability
Combination NPV Solar + Wind Rs.1,299,112.26 Solar+ Fuel Cell Rs.1,791,039.80 Solar+ DG Rs.429,359.31
IRR 20.51% 24.12% 16.14%
- Depending on the Area profile, suitable combination will be chosen - All 3 combinations are profitable & provides a positive NPV & IRR
Drivers & Challenges
Challenges
Sizing of hybrid system Replication by competitors
Drivers
Power shortages and demand supply gap in India Demand from telecom operators Environmental awarenesss Consistency of wind power availability
Marketing & Financial Strategy
Critical Customers
Communication tower companies Telecom Companies Government of India
Marketing Strategy
Advertorials in telecom related magazines Telecom conferences Internet blogs Newspaper spread-ads
Carbon Trading
Financial Strategy
Bank loans & offerings from IREDA Govt. subsidies GE internal funding for renewable power project
*Carbon credits resulting in additional cashflows **Not accounted during NPV calculation
The Road Ahead
Rural Area Power Supply
This Integration model would help in scaling up the power supply to rural areas through Grid Independent systems powering up rural India Government support would help GE to foray into rural & semi-urban lighting projects in a large scale Setup cost can be leveraged as against the ones used for powering the BTS station. This model can be extended to various areas which may require wireless communication systems (eg. Railways, Military, security systems etc.)
Thank you
email: [email protected]
Appendix
Wind profile in India
Wind Speed Power Output (kW) Power output in watts
Name of city
(Velocity)3
Area
Air Density
Jharsugada Ambala Bhopal Cudallore Guwahati Madurai Pune Shimla Jodhpur
4.25 3.70 5.65 5.16 2.61 5.19 4.75 3.37 5.50
76.77 50.65 180.36 137.39 17.78 139.80 107.17 38.27 166.38
7.07 7.07 7.07 7.07 7.07 7.07 7.07 7.07 7.07
1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20
0.33 0.21 0.76 0.58 0.08 0.59 0.45 0.16 0.71
325.41 214.72 764.56 582.39 75.37 592.61 454.30 162.24 705.26
Goa
8.60
636.06
7.07
1.20
2.70
2696.24
Bhubaneswar Lucknow
7.12 3.00
360.94 27.00
7.07 7.07
1.20 1.20
1.53 0.11
1530.04 114.45
Hyderabad
10.14
1042.59
7.07
1.20
4.42
4419.54
Appendix
Total CO2 released by 1 DG in tonnes (assuming a power 2.68 * 2 *2.5* 365 *10-3 = 4.891 outage of 2 hours per day)
No. of BTS using the proposed system (Assuming 50 % of the total)
((350000-110000) * 0.5) = 120,000
Total CO2 released by the sum total of BTS towers So the carbon credits generated by the system
4.891* 120000 = 586920 586920
Value generated (Assuming that a carbon credit sells for 586920*250 = Rs 146,730,000 Rs 250 in the open market)
Appendix: Financial Projections
Microsoft Office Excel 97-2003 Worksh
