Instructor: Tingwei WANG
Email:
[email protected]
Université Paris-Dauphine
For Master 224
September 2014
Risk Management
Base asset
- Stocks
Volatility: standard deviation of return
VaR (Value at Risk)
- Bonds
Duration: sensitivity to interest rate change
credit risks
Risk Management of Derivatives
The value of a derivative depends on the value of
underlying asset and other relevant parameters
Greek letters describe the sensitivity of the value of a
derivative to the relevant parameters
The focus of risk management of derivatives portfolio
is on the Greek letters
Review of Derivatives Basics
What is forward/futures?
What is an option?
How to price forward/futures?
How to price an option?
Types of derivatives
Futures/Forward Contracts
- An obligation for both parties to exchange the underlying
asset for a pre-determined price
Swaps
- Exchange of cash flows of different characteristics
Options
- A right to buy/sell the underlying asset at the strike price
Forward
A forward contract is an agreement to buy or sell an
asset at a certain time in the future for a certain price (the
forward price)
It can be contrasted with a spot contract which is an
agreement to buy or sell immediately (outright purchase)
It is traded in the OTC market
Futures
Definition
- A futures contract is a standardized contract between two
parties to buy or sell a specified asset of standardized
quantity and quality for a price agreed upon today (the
futures price)
Specifications need to be defined
- What can be delivered
- Where it can be delivered
- When it can be delivered
Traded in exchange and settled daily
Forward Contracts vs Futures Contracts
FORWARDS
Private contract between 2 parties
Not standardized
Usually 1 specified delivery date
Settled at end of contract
Delivery or final cash
settlement usually occurs
Some credit risk
No basis risk
Predictible cash-flows
FUTURES
Exchange traded
Standardized contract
Range of delivery dates
Settled daily
Contract usually closed out
prior to maturity
Virtually no credit risk
Basis risk
Funding liquidity risk
Pricing Futures/Forward
Price of Futures contract
r ( T t )
- Without dividend: Ft St e
- With dividend:
Ft St e( r q )(T t ) Ft [St PV ( D)]er (T t )
Mark to market value of forward contract
r (T t )
( Ft ,T K )
- Long position: f e
- Short position: f
e r (T t ) ( K Ft ,T )
Example
ABC stock costs $100 today and is expected to pay a
quarterly dividend of $1.25. If the risk-free rate is 10%
compounded continuously, how much
is the 1-year forward price of ABC stock?
3
F0,1 100e 1.25e
0.1
i 0
0.025i
$105.32
Options: Call and Put
There are two basic types of options
- Call option
- Put option
Call option
- A call option gives the holder of the option the right to buy
an asset by a certain date for a certain price
Put option
- A put option gives the holder of the option the right to sell
an asset by a certain date for a certain price
Underlying Assets
Stocks
- Single stock, basket of stocks, stock indices, …
Bonds
- Treasury bonds, interest rate (caplets and floorlets), …
Currencies
- Exchange rate option
Commodities
- Agricultural products, metals, energy, …
Futures contracts
- On stock indices, bonds, commodities, …
Example: payoff of a call option
A European call option of Orange with a strike price
of €70 that expires in 6 months
Payoff (€)
30
20
10
Terminal
stock price(€)
0
40
-10
50
60
70
80
90
100
Example: payoff of a put option
A European put option of Orange with a strike price
of €70 that expires in 6 months
Payoff (€)
30
20
10
Terminal
stock price(€)
0
40
-10
50
60
70
80
90
100
Option Premium (Price)
Option gives one party the right to buy/sell the
underlying asset at the strike price while obligates
the other party to sell/buy the underlying asset upon
request
- Seller of the option is called the writer
- The writer should be compensated with a premium
Contrast with futures/forwards
- Futures/forwards bring obligations to both parties
- The initial value of futures/forwards can be set to zero
P&L of Options
P&L = Payoff – Option Premium
Example: a European call option of Orange with a
strike price of €70 that expires in 6 months
P&L (€)
30
How much is the option premium here?
20
Break-even price
10
0
40 50 60 70
Terminal
stock price(€)
80 90 100
-10
Moneyness
At-the-money option
- Spot stock price S is equal to the strike price K
In-the-money option
- Spot stock price S is larger than the strike price K
- Deep-in-the-money: S>>K
Out-of-the-money option
- Spot stock price S is smaller than the strike price K
- Deep-out-of-the-money: S<<K
Practical Issues: Dividends
If a company distributes dividends during the life of
the option, the stock price will be decreased by the
amount of dividends
- The strike price should be adjusted by the amount
dividends on the ex-dividend date
Example
- Consider a put option to sell 100 shares of a company for
$15 per share. Suppose that the company declares a $2
dividend. The strike price will be decreased by $2.
Practical Issues: Dividends
For exchange-traded options and many over-the-
counter stock options, the strike price will not be
adjusted in the event of dividend payment!
The option premium actually takes into account the
future dividend payment
- A call would be cheaper
- A put would be more expensive
Option Pricing (Single Stock/Index)
Suppose you have an option that allows you to buy a
stock at $20 one year later. There are only two
possible outcomes of the stock price. It will be $30
with 50% probability and $10 with 50% probability.
The expected return of the stock is 10%. How much
is the option worth today?
Traditional cash flow discounting
E[( X K ) ] 0.5 (30 20) 0.5*0
c
$4.55
1 re
1 10%
Law of One Price
If there exists one portfolio with exactly the same
payoff as the option, then the price of the portfolio
should be the same as the option price
- This indicates that option is replicable if such portfolio exists
- The portfolio is called replicating portfolio
- For base assets, replicating payoff is impossible because
the value of base assets rely on fundamental variables
What can be used in a replicating portfolio?
- Base assets: stocks, bonds, commodities, etc.
Replicating Option Payoff
The value of an option on stock can be decomposed
into exercise value and time value
- Exercise value: stock
- Time value: bond
Does there exist a portfolio composed of the
underlying stock and risk-free bonds that perfectly
replicates the payoff of the option?
- Assume we buy x units of stock and y units of risk-free
bonds and solve for x and y
Replicating Portfolio
Suppose you have an option that allows you to buy a
stock at $20 one year later. There are only two
possible outcomes of the stock price. It will be $30
with 50% probability and $10 with 50% probability.
Su 30, Sd 10, cu 10, cd 0
xSu yerf 1 30 20 x 0.5
rf
r f 1
y
5
e
xSd ye 0
The value of the replicating portfolio today is
V0 xS0 y 0.5 20 5e
rf
10 5e
rf
c0
Generalized case
At t=0, the stock price is S0 and risk-free rate is rf
At t=T, the stock price either goes up or down. If up,
the stock price is Su=uS0 and the call will be worth cu;
if down, the stock price is Sd=dS0 and the call will be
worth cd
Up
Su
S0
Replicating portfolio
cu cd
Down
Sd
x
rf T
xSu ye cu
Su S d
rf T
xSd ye cd
y e rf T cd Su cu Sd e rf T ucd dcu
Su S d
ud
Value of the call option
By law of one price, today’s value of the call option
should be equal to today’s value of the replicating
portfolio
cu cd
r f T ucd dcu
c0 V0 xS0 y
S0 e
Su S d
ud
e
rf T
e
rf T
e d
r T u e
cu e f
cd
ud
ud
rf T
rf T
(qu cu qd cd )
e f d
u e f d
where qu
, qd
ud
ud
r T
r T
Risk-neutral Probability
Interestingly, qu plus qd is equal to 1
e f d u e f
qu qd
1
ud
ud
The expected payoff of the call option is actually
calculated using q-probability rather than pprobability
rT
c0 e
rf T
rT
(qu cu qd cd ) e
rf T
E Q [c]
- Q-probability is called risk-neutral probability
- Under risk-neutral probability, the expected payoff is
discounted by risk-free rate and the expected return for all
assets is risk-free rate
Forward Pricing in Q-measure
The payoff of a long forward contract is
X ST F
The forward value today is the expected forward
payoff under risk-neutral probability measure
discounted by risk-free rate
f 0 e rT E Q [ ST F ]
e rT E Q [ ST ] e rT F
e rT e rT S0 e rT F
S0 e rT F
Multi-period Model
When the number of periods increases, the time
interval shrinks and the stock price movements
become smaller
Path distribution
- For n-period model, n+1 possible outcomes
- To reach the highest node, there is only one path: up, up,
up,…all the way up
- To reach the lowest node, also only one path: down, down,
…, all the way down
Continuous-time option pricing
When the number of periods approaches infinity, the
stock price moves continuously and terminal prices
span the whole set of positive numbers
If we let n go to infinity in the binominal pricing
formula, we get the continuous-time version of
option pricing formula
- First proposed by Black & Scholes (1973) using partial
differential equation
Black-Scholes Formula
European option on stock without dividend
c0 S0 N (d1 ) Ke rT N (d 2 )
p0 Ke rT N (d 2 ) S0 N (d1 )
ln( S0 K ) (r 2 2)T
where d1
,
T
ln( S0 K ) (r 2 2)T
d2
d1 T
T
N ( x) is the cumulative normal distribution function
Example
Current stock price is $42. A call with strike price $40
will expire in 6 months. The risk-free interest rate is
10% per annum and the volatility is 20% per annum.
What is the call price? If it is a put?
Solution
S0 42, K 40, r 0.1, 0.2, T 0.5
d1
ln( S0 K ) (r 2 2)T
T
0.7693, d 2 d1 T 0.6278
c S0 N (d1 ) Ke rT N (d 2 ) 4.76
p Ke rT N (d 2 ) S0 N (d1 ) 0.81
Generalized Black-Scholes Formula
Black-Scholes formula can only be applied to a
single stock with no dividend payments during the
life of option
We can generalize Black-Scholes formula to price an
European option on assets with intermediate cash
flows or other derivatives, e.g. stock with dividends,
currencies or futures contract
Generalized Black-Scholes Formula
Change S0 into prepaid forward price
c0 F0P N (d1 ) Ke rT N (d 2 )
p0 Ke rT N (d 2 ) F0P N (d1 )
ln( F0P K ) (r 2 2)T
where d1
,
T
ln( F0P K ) (r 2 2)T
d2
d1 T
T
Option on stocks w/ dividends
Continuous dividends (stock index)
F0P S0e qT
c0 S0 e qT N (d1 ) Ke rT N (d 2 )
p0 Ke rT N (d 2 ) S0e qT N (d1 )
where d1
d2
ln ( S0 e qT K ) (r 2 2)T
T
ln ( S0 e qT K ) (r 2 2)T
T
,
d1 T
Option on stocks w/ dividends
Discrete dividends
F0P S0 PV ( D)
c0 [ S0 PV ( D)]N (d1 ) Ke rT N (d 2 )
p0 Ke rT N (d 2 ) S0 N (d1 )
where d1
d2
ln[( S0 PV ( D) K ] (r 2 2)T
T
ln[( S0 PV ( D) K ] (r 2 2)T
T
,
d1 T
Options on Currencies
Continuous compounding interest rates
F0P x0 e
c0 x0 e
rf T
rf T
p0 Ke
rT
N (d1 ) Ke rT N (d 2 )
N (d 2 ) x0e
where d1
d2
ln ( x0 e
rf T
rf T
N (d1 )
K ) (r 2 2)T
T
ln ( x0 e
rf T
,
K ) (r 2 2)T
d1 T
T
Options on Futures Contract
Black’s Formula
F0P F0 e rT
c0 F0 e rT N (d1 ) Ke rT N (d 2 ) e rT [ F0 N (d1 ) KN (d 2 )]
p0 e rT [ KN (d 2 ) F0 N (d1 )]
where d1
d2
ln ( F0 e rT K ) (r 2 2)T
T
ln ( F0 e rT K ) (r 2 2)T
T
ln ( F0 K ) ( 2 2)T
T
d1 T
,
Factors that affect option price
From Black-Scholes formula,
c0 S0 N (d1 ) Ke rT N (d 2 ), p0 Ke rT N (d 2 ) S0 N (d1 )
where d1
ln( S0 K ) (r 2 2)T
, d 2 d1 T
T
we can see there are five factors that affect option
price
- Spot price of underlying asset (S0)
- Strike price (K)
- Maturity (T)
- Volatility ( )
- Risk-free interest rate (r)
How Factors Change Option Value
Factors (+)
Call option
Put option
Spot price of underlying asset
+
–
Strike price
–
+
Maturity
+
?
Volatility
+
+
Interest rate
+
–
Greek Letters
Greek letters describe the sensitivity of option price
to one of its determinants, ceteris paribus
- Measure sensitivity: partial derivatives
Greek letters are of great importance in risk
management
- They measure the risk exposure of holding an option to all
the possible factors
- Traders contruct hedging portofolio based on Greek letters
Delta
Delta (D) is the rate of change of the option price with
respect to the underlying asset price
Option price
Slope = D
ct
St
Stock price
Delta
Calculate delta
- Call option
rT
S
N
(
d
)
Ke
N (d 2 )
ct
t
1
Dt
N (d1 ) 0
St
St
- Put option
rT
Ke
N (d 2 ) St N (d1 )
ct
Dt
N (d1 ) 1 0
St
St
- Continuous proportional dividend
q (T t )
put
q (T t )
Dcall
e
N
(
d
),
D
e
[ N (d1 ) 1]
1
t
t
Discrete Delta
Continuous delta results in losses when asset price
either goes up or down
- Solution: discrete delta
Option price
cu
cu cd
D
Su S d
ct
cd
Sd
St
Su Stock price
Compare with the replicating portfolio in binominal
tree model
cu cd
x S S
xSu yerf T cu
u
d
rf T
xSd ye cd
y e rf T cd Su cu Sd e rf T ucd dcu
Su S d
ud
c c
r T ucd dcu
c0 xS0 y u d S0 e f
Su S d
ud
c0 S0 N (d1 ) Ke rT N (d2 ) D0 S0 [e rT KN (d2 )]
stocks
bonds
Delta
Gamma
Gamma (G) is the rate of change of delta (D) with
respect to the price of the underlying asset
- Gamma addresses delta hedging errors caused by
curvature
Call price
C’’
C’
C
S
S’
Stock price
Gamma & Vega
Vega
Vega (n) is the rate of change of the option price with
respect to implied volatility
- Vega is always positive for vanilla options but not always for
exotic options
Real volatility V.S. Implied Volatility
- Real volatility: unobservable, calculated using a period of
historical returns
- Implied volatility: observable, backed out from vanilla option
prices using Black-Scholes formula
Constant volatility
In the Black-Scholes model, the volatility of the
underlying asset is constant, which is not true in the
real market
Volatility Smile
Volatility Surface
Implied
volatility
Maturity T
Moneyness K/S0
Theta
European Call Premium
Option
premium
Time value
Intrinsic value
Max(St-K,0)
K
Out-of-the-money
Stock price St
European Put premium
Option
premium
Negtive time value
pt ( K St ) ct K (1 e r (T t ) ) 0
Time value
Intrinsic value
Max(K-St,0)
K
In-the-money
Stock price St
Rho
Rho is the rate of change of the value of the option
price with respect to the interest rate
- For currency options there are 2 rhos
Calculations
- European call on non-dividend paying stock
rho(call ) KTe rT N (d2 ) 0
- European put on non-dividend paying stock
rho( put ) KTe rT N (d2 ) 0
Rho
Example: delta hedging
Principle
- Construct a self-financing portfolio with stocks and risk-free
bonds to replicate the value of an option
- Self-financing: no additional capital added to the portfolio
during the hedging process
Initiation
- At t=0, the bank sells an option and earns the option
premium C0
- Then the banks buys D 0 units of stocks and C0 D0 S0 units
of risk-free bonds
Delta hedging (Cont’d)
On day t, the portfolio value is
t Dt St Bt
On day t+1, before rebalancing the portfolio, the
portfolio value is1
t 1 Dt St 1 Bt e
r
252
At the end of day, the trade rebalances the portfolio
with the updated delta
t 1 Dt 1St 1 Bt 1
where Bt 1 t 1 Dt 1St 1
Cumulative P/L of hedging (hedging error) is
et t Ct
The final P/L (total hedging error) is
eT T CT
DT 1ST BT 1e
r
1
252
max( ST K , 0)
Decomposition of option value change
Daily change of option value
Ct 1 (St 1 ) Ct (St ) Ct 1 (St 1 ) Ct (St 1 ) Ct (St 1 ) Ct (St )
Time value
Price risk
Ct ( St )
1 2Ct ( St )
2
Ct ( St 1 ) Ct ( St )
( St 1 St )
(
S
S
)
t 1
t
St
2 St 2
1
Dt ( St 1 St ) Gt ( St 1 St ) 2
2
Delta exposure Gamma exposure
Hedging error
Option value change
1
1
Ct 1 ( St 1 ) Ct (St )
Dt ( St 1 St ) Gt ( St 1 St ) 2
252
2
Hedging portfolio value change
t 1 t Dt (St 1 St ) Bt (e
r
1
252
1)
Daily Hedging error
t 1 ( t 1 t ) (Ct 1 Ct )
Bt (e
r
1
252
1)
1
1
Gt ( St 1 St ) 2
252 2
Delta of Futures/Forwards
Delta of futures contract
r ( T t )
D er (T t )
- Without dividend: Ft St e
- With dividend:
Ft St e( r q )(T t )
D e( r q )(T t )
Delta of forward contract
r (T t )
St D 1
- Long position: f Ke
- Short position:
f St Ke r (T t ) D 1
Greeks of a portfolio
Greeks of a portfolio are simply the weighted greeks
of each individual asset in the portfolio
Example: delta of a portfolio
- Suppose a portfolio consists of a quantity wi of asset i with
Di, the delta of the portfolio is given by
n
D p wi Di
i 1
Example
Suppose a bank has a portfolio of following assets:
- 1. A long position in 1000 call options with strike price 30
and an expiration date in 3 months. The delta of each
option is 0.55
- 2. A short position in 500 put options with strike price 20
and an expiration date in 6 months. The delta of each put
options is -0.3
- 3. A long position in 100 shares of underlying stocks
- 4. A short position in a forward contract on 200 shares of
underlying stocks
n
D p wi Di 1000 0.55 500 (0.3) 100 1 200 1 600
i 1
Gamma Neutral Portfolio
A delta-neutral portfolio is not gamma-neutral
because the underlying asset or forward/futures
contract on the underlying asset both have zero
gamma
Solution: use a traded option with gamma GT
- Suppose a portfolio has a gamma equal to G
- Adding the traded option, the portfolio gamma becomes
wGT G 0
w
G
GT
Example
A bank writes exotic options to its clients. It accumulates
a negative gamma of -6.000 but is delta-neutral. To
neutralize the negative gamma exposure, the bank
decides to buy call option with a delta of 0.6 and a
gamma of 1.50. Should the bank buy or sell this call
option? And how many?
Solution
G
6000
w
4000
GT
1.5
- The bank should buy 4000 call options
After adding the call option to the portfolio, the delta
of the portfolio is not zero anymore!
D p 0 wDT 4000 0.6 2400
To make the portfolio delta-neutral again, the bank
should sell 2400 units of underlying asset or sell
certain amounts of forward/futures contract on this
asset
Vega Neutral Portfolio
The method of constructing a vega neutral portfolio
is the same as gamma neutral portfolio
Suppose a traded option has a vega of n T . To
neutralize a portfolio with vega n , the number of
option needed is
wn T n 0
w
n
nT
Gamma-vega Neutral
A gamma neutral portfolio is in general not vega
neutral, and vice versa
It is possible to make a delta neutral portfolio both
gamma neutral and vega neutral
- With one option, it is only possible to neutralize one greek
letter in addition to delta
- With two options, two greek letters can be neutralized at the
same time by solving 2 simultaneous equations
Example: gamma-vega neutral
A delta neutral portfolio has a gamma of -5,000 and a
vega of -8,000. A traded option has a gamma of 0.5, a
vega of 2.0 and a delta of 0.6. Another traded option has
a gamma of 0.8, a vega of 1.2 and a delta of 0.5.
Let w1 and w2 be the quantities of the two options
5000 0.5w1 0.8w2 0
8000 2.0w1 1.2w2 0
w1 400
D p 400 0.6 6000 0.5 3240
w2 6000
Delta, Theta and Gamma
Taylor’s expansion on the value of a portfolio
1 2
2
d
dt
dS
(
dS
)
t
S
2 S 2
1
dt DdS G(dS ) 2
2
Take expectation under Q on both sides
E Q [
d
dS 1
dS
] dt DSt E Q [ ] GSt2 E Q [( ) 2 ]
S
2
S
Under Q, the expected return of any asset is r
dS
d
E Q [ ] r dt , E Q [
] r dt
S
Cont’d
1
dS
rdt dt DrSdt GSt2 E Q [( )2 ]
2
S
dS
dS
dS
) E Q [( ) 2 ] E Q [ ]2 2 dt
S
S
S
dS
dS
E Q [( ) 2 ] 2 dt E Q [ ]2 2 dt (rdt ) 2 2 dt
S
S
Var (
1 2 2
rdt dt DrSdt GS dt
2
The value of a portfolio composed of derivatives
on a non-dividend-paying stock satisfies the
differential equation
1
rS D 2 S 2G r
2
Problems with Black-Scholes
Black-Scholes is a very nice model that is consistent
with all the properties of options and has a neat
solution to the option price
But, it is based on many strong assumptions that are
not realistic in the real market
- Log-normal distribution of stock price
- Continuous trading w/o transaction cost
- Constant volatility and interest rate
- ……