THE DES MOINES REGISTER / BLOOMBERG POLITICS IOWA POLL
SELZER & COMPANY
400 Republican likely caucusgoers
404 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
Margin of error ± 4.9 percentage points for Democrats
Study #2130
December 7-10, 2015
2,635 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
Poll Questions
PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.
Now, I’m going to mention some prominent politicians [before Dec-15: prominent Democrats], including [Before Aug-15: people
talked about as possible] candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. For each, please tell me if your feelings
are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know enough about the
person to answer, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list, but Obama always goes first and
Trump will go last.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Fav
Unf
Very
Favorable
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
Barack Obama, president of the United
States
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
87*
11
50
36
5
6
2
90
88
91
89
86
7 *
9
7
9
13
51
43
44
49
49
39
45
47
40
37
4
5
5
6
5
4
4
2
3
8
2
2
2
2
1
Hillary Clinton, former secretary of state
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
82
14
43
39
8
6
4
85
77
88
86 *
84
76
14
19
10
12 *
15
19
39
27
30
39
46
43
46
50
58
46
38
33
8
10
6
7
7
8
6
9
4
6
8
11
2
4
2
2
1
5
Martin O’Malley, former governor of
Maryland
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
43
15*
7
36
9
5
42
43
33
20 *
13
13
17 *
7 *
8
9
9
8
8
4
2
2
35
25
17
11
11
14
5
5
6
7
4
3
3
3
2
39
60
72
78
78
Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from
Vermont
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
80
12*
42
38
7
4
9
82
73
57
47
37
29
10 *
8
4
12
12
13
42
39
27
23
17
10
40
34
30
24
20
19
6
4
3
8
8
8
3
4
1
4
4
5
8
19
39
41
51
58
Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from
Massachusetts
Dec-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
53
11*
31
22
7
5
35
62
58
44
9
11
11
31
30
23
31
28
21
6
6
6
3
5
5
28
31
45
*We are most confident in the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the best
estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly
favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 1
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record “No first
choice” in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
First
Choice
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Hillary Clinton
Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)
Not sure
No first choice
Second
Choice
48
4
39
27
19
33
6
2
3
9
8
Combined
75
23
72
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record “No first
choice” in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Hillary Clinton
Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or could
you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first choice” have
been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)
Among all Dem CGs
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=404
n=402
±4.9% pts
±4.9% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
53
46
1
42
58
-
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or could
you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first choice” have
been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)
Among Clinton supporters
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=205
n=176
±6.9% pts
±7.4% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
64
35
1
46
54
-
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or could
you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first choice” have
been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)
Among Sanders supporters
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=149
n=138
±8.1% pts
±8.4% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
55
45
-
46
53
1
If Bernie Sanders were to announce before the caucuses that Elizabeth Warren would be his running mate as vice
president, would you support Sanders as your first choice, second choice, or would you not support him?
All Dem CGs
n=404
±4.9% pts
Clinton
supporters
n=205
±6.9% pts
Sanders
supporters
n=149
±8.1% pts
39
34
14
13
7
62
21
11
87
3
1
8
Support as first choice
Support as second choice
Would not support Sanders
Not sure
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 3
I have some questions comparing [HILLARY CLINTON], [MARTIN O’MALLEY], and [BERNIE SANDERS]. Which
one do you think: (Rotate list.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Clinton
Has the best temperament to be president
Would be best at dealing with Vladimir Putin
Would work most effectively with Congress
Has the most appropriate life experience to be president
Knows the most about how to get things done
Cares the most about people like you
Has the best stance on gun control
Will fight hardest for the middle class
Will do the most to rein in the power of Wall Street
Would be best at managing the economy
Is the most honest and trustworthy
Can best combat Islamic terrorism
Would make the best commander in chief
O’Malley
49
56
45
60
56
38
36
36
29
51
31
60
55
Sanders
9
2
9
2
4
3
8
1
2
5
6
4
3
Not sure
33
27
34
29
32
49
27
56
57
34
52
18
28
9
15
12
9
9
9
29
6
12
9
11
18
13
I’m going to mention some stands on issues some candidates have taken. For each, please tell me if you agree or
disagree with this position. (Rotate list.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Agree
Supported the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003
Voted for the bailout of Wall Street banks when they were failing in 2008
Wants to end most free trade agreements, including the North American
Free Trade Agreement and the new trade agreement with Pacific Rim
nations
Voted against holding gun manufacturers legally responsible for mass
shootings
Wants to break up large Wall Street banks
Wants to legalize marijuana
Supports the nuclear deal with Iran
Supports a single-payer health care plan instead of the current law
Wants to raise the highest income tax rate to over 50%
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 4
Not
Sure
Disagree
23
40
71
50
6
9
34
45
21
32
78
61
62
53
43
61
14
30
22
32
45
6
8
9
15
15
12
Now, I’m going to mention some candidates for the Republican nomination for president. For each, please tell me if
your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know
enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list.)
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
6
32
32
22
7
14
10
11
17
9
36
36
32
29
41
25
31
27
25
19
18
19
18
18
9
7
5
13
11
22
28
44
13
9
6
53
46
24
28
24
31
33
32
22
17
7
6
10
9
4
5
2
5
3
4
4
13
29
38
51
42*
8
38
24
19
11
49
59
58
54
45
6
5
6
7
8
32
24
21
29
31
28
36
39
32
29
21
23
19
22
16
12
12
14
10
16
19*
43
30
12
6
9
26
24
20
21
18
28
29
20
22
20
33
32
39
36
32
15
17
13
14
11
11
7
7
7
7
13
15
21
21
30
52
33*
12
40
22
10
15
66
64
41 *
22
15
19 *
26
31
13
40
33
27
13
8
12
9
7
8
12
21
40
Jan-15
15
19
4
11
13
6
66
Lindsey Graham, U.S. senator from
South Carolina
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
16
53
1
15
31
22
31
18
15
22 *
53
59*
38
3
2
4
14
13
19
27
35
23
26
25
15
29
26
40
Mike Huckabee, former governor of
Arkansas
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
53
38
16
37
26
12
9
61
61
61
66
59
33
30*
30
28
30
18
17
21
28
23
43
44
40
38
36
22
21
21
21
23
11
10
9
7
7
6
9
9
6
11
John Kasich, governor of Ohio
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
19
46
5
14
31
15
34
31 *
33 *
25
22
17
33 *
22
16 *
14
7
8
10
7
7
3
22
22
18
15
14
22
17
11
10
5
12
5
4
4
2
36
45
59
64
76
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida
Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon
Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon from
Maryland
Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey
Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas
Carly Fiorina, former CEO of HewlettPackard
Carly Fiorina, former CEO of HewlettPackard and candidate for the U.S.
Senate in California
Fav
Unf
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
39*
54
50
45 *
43
46
50
43
50
45
43
28
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
72
22
84
79
56
50
41
12
8
15
12
8
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
46
39 *
29
28 *
36
39
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
73
61
61
59
58
52
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Very
Favorable
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 5
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
9
28
30
19
14
12
11
16
25
21
30
29
39
39
38
29
31
24
18
18
18
18
10
7
6
10
12
11
11
17
24
46
15
6
9
26
24
20
16
14
43
43
40
41
40
12
15
12
15
12
8
5
5
5
4
10
13
23
23
30
43*
8
34
28
14
16
51
48 *
56
57
52
34 *
37 *
28
30
30
12
11
18
16
14
39
38
38
41
38
21
26
19
22
20
14
10
9
8
10
15
15
16
13
18
57
38
25
32
17
21
5
59
61 *
27
26
37
35
63 *
68
27
26
7
4
32
34
20
22
19
16
31
36
18
19
33
32
5
4
10
6
Fav
Unf
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
37
50*
43 *
39 *
55
64
59
48 *
49
34
25
24
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
70
21
70 *
67
60
57
54
20
20
17
20
16
Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from
Pennsylvania
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
42
Donald Trump, a businessman from New
York
Donald Trump, businessman and
television personality
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky
Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida
Very
Favorable
*We are most confident in the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the best
estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly
favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 6
Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question, code second choice as
No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
First
Second
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)
Not sure
No first choice
6
13
3
31
1
3
2
3
10
1
21
3
5
14
3
20
4
5
2
3
14
2
14
3
4
4
7
Combined
11
27
6
51
5
8
4
6
24
3
35
Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question code No first choice
and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
*“Combined” does not match the “ever/never” question below for certain candidates due to rounding.
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 9
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first
choice” have been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)
Among all Rep CGs
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=400
n=401
±4.9% pts
±4.9% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
33
66
1
22
78
1
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first
choice” have been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)
Among Cruz supporters
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=120
n=36
±9.0% pts
±16.6% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
43
55
2
37
63
-
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first
choice” have been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)
Among Trump supporters
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=86
n=80
±10.6% pts
±11.0% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
45
55
-
32
67
1
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first
choice” have been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)
Among Carson supporters
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=49
n=109
±14.1% pts
±9.4% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
34
61
4
15
83
1
Do you think you will have your mind made up at least a week before the caucus, or will you still be deciding the
week leading up to the caucus?
All Rep CGs
n=400
±4.9% pts
Cruz
supporters
n=120
±9.0% pts
Trump
supporters
n=86
±10.6% pts
Carson
supporters
n=49
±14.1% pts
33
43
45
34
30
32
30
23
31
22
26
35
5
5
1
4
Mind is already made up (Code only if “mind is
made up” in previous question)
Will make mind up at least a week before the caucus
Will still be deciding the week leading up to the
caucus
Not sure
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 10
(Asked only for each candidate NOT answered as first or second choice.) I’m going to mention the candidates who are
not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the person for president or
would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same rotation as horserace questions. If
selected as first or second choice, code as “1st or 2nd choice and do not ask.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Ever
Never
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
45
41
3
11
48
50
38
40
39
35
2
2
10
10
9
16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
55
17
2
26
41
50
47
10
12
18
3
6
20
47
32
15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
51
40
3
7
45
44
34
48
48
45
4
5
13
3
3
8
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
31
17
2
50
49
54
49
27
24
21
5
4
18
19
18
13
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
57
33
5
5
54
55
38
23
20
27
6
9
30
17
16
5
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
14
59
28
-
17
20
59
51
24
28
-
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
29
61
9
-
25
30
29
63
57
43
11
13
25
1
3
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
57
32
3
8
60
60
51
31
28
24
3
4
9
6
8
16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
32
53
11
4
36
41
29
45
40
28
14
14
40
4
5
3
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
19
66
15
-
19
26
20
63
57
41
18
17
38
1
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
47
44
4
5
43
43
45
45
43
30
4
6
10
9
8
15
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
56
19
2
23
55
60
20
19
5
6
20
15
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 11
Not sure
1st or 2nd
choice
May-15
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
49
18
15
18
Not sure
1st or 2nd
choice
Ever
Never
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
54
40
3
3
53
56
51
38
35
26
5
6
11
4
3
12
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
33
30
3
34
35
36
28
34
29
58
3
3
8
27
32
6
*“Combined” in the horserace question does not match “1st/2nd choice” for certain candidates in the ever/never
question due to rounding.
All other things being equal, which of the following is a more attractive candidate for president at this time: (Read and
rotate list.)
Rep CG
19
30
39
12
A governor, who has worked with a legislature and who has been responsible for balancing a budget
A U.S. senator, who has involvement with national security and international relations and diplomatic issues
A government outsider who has handled complex issues and managed teams
Not sure
I have some questions comparing just [BEN CARSON], [TED CRUZ], [MARCO RUBIO], and [DONALD TRUMP].
Which one do you think: (Rotate candidate names and rotate list.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Has the best temperament to be president
Would be best at dealing with Vladimir Putin
Would work most effectively with Congress
Has the most appropriate life experience to be president
Knows the most about how to get things done
Cares the most about people like you
Has the right values to lead the nation
Would be best at managing the economy
Would do the most to solve the illegal immigration problem
Can best combat Islamic terrorism
Would make the best commander in chief
Would do the most to make all abortion illegal
Would be the best at reducing the federal deficit
Has the best chance of beating Hillary Clinton
Carson
Cruz
Rubio
Trump
23
10
18
10
6
24
22
7
5
5
12
23
6
11
34
31
31
34
22
28
34
24
22
32
34
32
27
26
25
13
29
19
13
19
18
10
15
13
18
7
10
20
11
34
12
24
49
17
16
50
50
35
25
6
48
30
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 12
Not
sure
7
13
10
13
10
12
10
8
8
16
11
32
10
14
Have you attended any events hosted by Republican candidates this caucus season? (If yes, ask:) For how many different
candidates have you attended at least one event?
Rep CG
2
1
1
4
9
9
73
-
10 or more
8-9
6-7
4-5
2-3
One
No, have not attended any candidate events this season
Not sure
Have you signed pledge cards for any Republican candidates in this caucus season? (If yes, ask:) For how many
candidates have you signed pledge cards?
Rep CG
1
3
95
-
10 or more
8-9
6-7
4-5
2-3
One
No, have not signed any pledge cards this caucus season
Not sure
Do you consider yourself more of an establishment or anti-establishment Republican?
Rep CG
29
47
13
11
Establishment
Anti-establishment
Neither (VOL)
Not sure
Which ONE of the following factions of the Republican party describes you best as you think about which candidate to
support: (Rotate list.)
Rep CG
24
32
35
10
Tea party
Evangelical conservative
Mainstream Republican
Not sure
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 13
I’m going to mention some stands on issues some candidates have taken. For each, please tell me if you agree or
disagree with this position. (Rotate list.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Agree
Says climate change is a hoax
Wants to deport 11 million people living in the U.S. illegally
Wants to stop all U.S. resettlement of refugees from the civil war in Syria
Wants to make all abortion illegal, without exceptions for rape, incest, or to save
the life of the mother
Supports a single-payer health care plan instead of the current law
Supports a tax reform plan that cuts taxes on every American, including the very
wealthiest
Wants to send at least 20,000 troops to fight the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria
Wants to repeal financial reform laws enacted after the banking crisis in 2008
Would be willing to shoot down Russian planes if they violated a no-fly zone in
Syria
Wants to abolish the Internal Revenue Service
Compared to:
Study #2128
401 Republican likely caucusgoers
402 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error ± 4.9 percentage points for each party
Disagree
Not
Sure
57
54
67
35
37
25
7
9
9
40
49
56
35
5
16
74
61
58
21
28
20
4
11
22
44
61
41
31
15
8
October 16-19, 2015
2,771 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
Study #2125
400 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
404 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error ± 4.9 percentage points for Democrats
Study #2122
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers in Iowa
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points
August 23-26, 2015
2,975 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
June 19-22, 2015
1,805 contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district
to conform to active Democratic and no-party voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
Study #2118
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
437 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.7 percentage points for Democrats
May 25-29, 2015
4,161 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
Study #2113
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for each party
January 26-29, 2015
3,813 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
Study #2104
425 Republican likely caucusgoers
426 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.8 percentage points for each party
October 1-7, 2014
3,677 contacts weighted by age and sex to conform
to active voters in Iowa voter registration list
____________________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 14
About the Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted December 7-10 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des
Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 400 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend
the 2016 Republican caucuses and 404 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016
Democratic caucuses.
Interviewers contacted 2,635 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by
telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter
registration list.
Questions based on the subsamples of 404 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 400 likely Republican caucus attendees
each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were
repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the
percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of
respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.