MarketBob Academy Awards 2012 Predictions

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MarketBOB's Academy Awards 2012 Predictions
Oscar Pool Picks

My writer site http://www.cforgrave.com/

pg. 0

© 2012 by Sportscar Projects Ltd.

My writer site http://www.cforgrave.com/

pg. 1

February 19, 2012

Have you seen all the movies nominated for best picture for the 2012 Academy Awards? My guess is: probably not. Box office hits were scarce in Oscar nominees this year, like the last several years. But fear not, for MarketBOB has gone beyond the usual box office #1 movies to help you pick the likely winners and perhaps take home the Oscar Pool cash this year. The usual wisdom for making foolhardy predictions is to build up “expert” knowledge from years of movie watching and cinema study and then make rational, learned observations about which films and performances “should” win. Of course, if you ignore the massive publicity campaigns, movie star glad-handing and the power of momentum and mass media, then you have no hope of picking winners. Make no mistake, movies are a business and Oscar winners make money at the box office. The studios are desperate for Oscars, not for the art and prestige of being anointed in the annals of cinema glory, but for the cash gained by attracting more bums into theater seats

My writer site http://www.cforgrave.com/

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and post-release revenues from DVD purchases and rentals (streaming and so on). The competition is fierce, to influence voters indirectly (as blatant influence is forbidden, nudge nudge…) for votes. Then there is always the loose cannon of celebrity mouths, who can piss off voters with one innocent comment or a volume of desperate campaigning and being labeled as “wanting the Oscar too much”. The final force at work is the power of consensus reported in the media as all the pundits give their opinions and make voters wonder just how stupid they are for liking their own picks when it is obvious the insiders have anointed another nominee. So, given the media momentum, critical mass consensus, celebrity star power and, oh yes, the actual performances, I present below my personally researched, critically observed and celebrity influenced 2012 Oscar Predictions. Where meaningful comment is needed, I have added some rationale for my choices, but I have also posted some in-depth Oscar reviews of movies that never made #1 and thus, were not MarketBOB reviewed when first released.

My writer site http://www.cforgrave.com/

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Best motion picture of the year * "The Artist" Thomas Langmann, Producer * "The Descendants" Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Producers * "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" Scott Rudin, Producer * "The Help" Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan, Producers * "Hugo" Graham King and Martin Scorsese, Producers * "Midnight in Paris" Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum, Producers * "Moneyball" Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, Producers * "The Tree of Life" Sarah Green, Bill Pohlad, Dede Gardner and Grant Hill, Producers * "War Horse" Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers And the Winner is: The Artist, because it is so damn happy and inventive even though it is in black and white and without speaking parts – just the sort of “against all odds” movie that wins. Like, what studio would green-light a silent, black and white movie these days, with 3D and all the other innovations they’ve invested millions to help raise ticket prices? A black and white silent should be shown at a discount ticket price. Achievement in directing * "The Artist" Michel Hazanavicius * "The Descendants" Alexander Payne

My writer site http://www.cforgrave.com/

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* "Hugo" Martin Scorsese * "Midnight in Paris" Woody Allen * "The Tree of Life" Terrence Malick And the Winner is: "The Artist" Michel Hazanavicius, because the director of the best picture usually wins as well. Performance by an actor in a leading role * Demián Bichir in "A Better Life" * George Clooney in "The Descendants" * Jean Dujardin in "The Artist" * Gary Oldman in "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" * Brad Pitt in "Moneyball" And the Winner is: Jean Dujardin in "The Artist" because the Screen Actors Guild voted for him and they are the same voters here as well. Performance by an actress in a leading role * Glenn Close in "Albert Nobbs" * Viola Davis in "The Help" * Rooney Mara in "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" * Meryl Streep in "The Iron Lady" * Michelle Williams in "My Week with Marilyn" And the Winner is: Viola Davis in "The Help", because the Screen Actors Guild voted for her and they are the same voters here as well.

My writer site http://www.cforgrave.com/

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Performance by an actor in a supporting role * Kenneth Branagh in "My Week with Marilyn" * Jonah Hill in "Moneyball" * Nick Nolte in "Warrior" * Christopher Plummer in "Beginners" * Max von Sydow in "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" And the Winner is: Christopher Plummer in "Beginners", same SAG reasons as above. Performance by an actress in a supporting role * Bérénice Bejo in "The Artist" * Jessica Chastain in "The Help" * Melissa McCarthy in "Bridesmaids" * Janet McTeer in "Albert Nobbs" * Octavia Spencer in "The Help" And the Winner is: Jessica Chastain in "The Help", again SAG. Best animated feature film * "A Cat in Paris" Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli * "Chico & Rita" Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal * "Kung Fu Panda 2" Jennifer Yuh Nelson * "Puss in Boots" Chris Miller * "Rango" Gore Verbinski And the Winner is: "Rango" Gore Verbinski, because as an adult, I enjoyed the western, Clint Eastwood vibe and

My writer site http://www.cforgrave.com/

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clever images, but Puss in Boots was way better than I expected and would be my close second choice. Best foreign language film of the year * "Bullhead" Belgium * "Footnote" Israel * "In Darkness" Poland * "Monsieur Lazhar" Canada * "A Separation" Iran And the Winner is: "A Separation" Iran Best documentary feature * "Hell and Back Again" Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner * "If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front" Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman * "Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory" Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky * "Pina" Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel * "Undefeated" TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay and Richard Middlemas And the Winner is: "Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory" Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky, go with the injustice and falsely accused prison story over the artistic dance film, Pina. Adapted screenplay * "The Descendants" Screenplay by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash

My writer site http://www.cforgrave.com/

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* "Hugo" Screenplay by John Logan * "The Ides of March" Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon * "Moneyball" Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin. Story by Stan Chervin * "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" Screenplay by Bridget O'Connor & Peter Straughan And the Winner is: "The Descendants" Screenplay by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash Original screenplay * "The Artist" Written by Michel Hazanavicius * "Bridesmaids" Written by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig * "Margin Call" Written by J.C. Chandor * "Midnight in Paris" Written by Woody Allen * "A Separation" Written by Asghar Farhadi And the Winner is: "Midnight in Paris" Written by Woody Allen, the most nominated person in Academy history, and this script is a charming and accessible light fantasy. Achievement in art direction * "The Artist" Production Design: Laurence Bennett; Set Decoration: Robert Gould * "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan * "Hugo" Production Design: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo

My writer site http://www.cforgrave.com/

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* "Midnight in Paris" Production Design: Anne Seibel; Set Decoration: Hélène Dubreuil * "War Horse" Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales And the Winner is: "Hugo" Production Design: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo because the sets and clock mechanisms are just so damn amazing, not to mention the glass movie studio. Achievement in cinematography * "The Artist" Guillaume Schiffman * "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" Jeff Cronenweth * "Hugo" Robert Richardson * "The Tree of Life" Emmanuel Lubezki * "War Horse" Janusz Kaminski And the Winner is: "The Tree of Life" Emmanuel Lubezki, because light is the main character in this film, shimmering through trees, buildings, oceans and the glossy backs of dinosaurs. Achievement in costume design * "Anonymous" Lisy Christl * "The Artist" Mark Bridges * "Hugo" Sandy Powell * "Jane Eyre" Michael O'Connor * "W.E." Arianne Phillips And the Winner is: "The Artist" Mark Bridges

My writer site http://www.cforgrave.com/

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Achievement in film editing * "The Artist" Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius * "The Descendants" Kevin Tent * "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall * "Hugo" Thelma Schoonmaker * "Moneyball" Christopher Tellefsen And the Winner is: "The Artist" Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius Achievement in makeup * "Albert Nobbs" Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle * "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight and Lisa Tomblin * "The Iron Lady" Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland And the Winner is: "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight and Lisa Tomblin, because Harry Potter made so much money for so many people that it deserves an Oscar for something, as this is the finale (until they re-make the series in a decade or so). Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score) * "The Adventures of Tintin" John Williams * "The Artist" Ludovic Bource * "Hugo" Howard Shore

My writer site http://www.cforgrave.com/

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* "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" Alberto Iglesias * "War Horse" John Williams And the Winner is: "The Artist" Ludovic Bource, as it’s the only musical in the bunch, so the music better be great. Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song) * "Man or Muppet" from "The Muppets" Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie * "Real in Rio" from "Rio" Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown Lyric by Siedah Garrett And the Winner is: "Man or Muppet" from "The Muppets" Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie, because who the heck is going to vote against the Muppets? Achievement in sound editing * "Drive" Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis * "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" Ren Klyce * "Hugo" Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty * "Transformers: Dark of the Moon" Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl * "War Horse" Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom And the Winner is: Hugo, tick, tock. Achievement in sound mixing * "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Bo Persson * "Hugo" Tom Fleischman and John Midgley

My writer site http://www.cforgrave.com/

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* "Moneyball" Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, Dave Giammarco and Ed Novick * "Transformers: Dark of the Moon" Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin * "War Horse" Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson And the Winner is: "Hugo" Tom Fleischman and John Midgley, tick, tock. Achievement in visual effects * "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson * "Hugo" Rob Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossman and Alex Henning * "Real Steel" Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor and Swen Gillberg * "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett * "Transformers: Dark of the Moon" Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew Butler and John Frazier And the Winner is: "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett, because the apes make the movie and look just like us, act like us and without them, there is no movie. Best animated short film * "Dimanche/Sunday" Patrick Doyon * "The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore" William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg

My writer site http://www.cforgrave.com/

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* "La Luna" Enrico Casarosa * "A Morning Stroll" Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe * "Wild Life" Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby And the Winner is: "La Luna" Enrico Casarosa, with a little help from Pixar. Best live action short film * "Pentecost" Peter McDonald and Eimear O'Kane * "Raju" Max Zähle and Stefan Gieren * "The Shore" Terry George and Oorlagh George * "Time Freak" Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey * "Tuba Atlantic" Hallvar Witzø And the Winner is: "Raju" Max Zähle and Stefan Gieren Best documentary short subject * "The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement" Robin Fryday and Gail Dolgin * "God Is the Bigger Elvis" Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson * "Incident in New Baghdad"James Spione * "Saving Face" Daniel Junge and Sharmeen ObaidChinoy * "The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom" Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen And the Winner is: "The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom" Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen So, there you have it, the MarketBOB Oscar predictions

My writer site http://www.cforgrave.com/

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for another year. Good luck with your picks and I hope you win some green cash to make the TV show more exciting, for once.

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