Mobile Phones in Indonesia

Published on May 2016 | Categories: Types, Articles & News Stories | Downloads: 51 | Comments: 0 | Views: 250
of 9
Download PDF   Embed   Report

Market Research on the size and future prospects of the mobile phones industry in Indonesia

Comments

Content

MOBILE PHONES IN INDONESIA
Euromonitor International November 2012

MOBILE PHONES IN INDONESIA

Passport

I

LIST OF CONTENTS AND TABLES
Headlines ..................................................................................................................................... 1 Trends .......................................................................................................................................... 1 Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................ 2 Prospects ..................................................................................................................................... 3 Category Data .............................................................................................................................. 3 Table 1 Table 2 Table 3 Table 4 Table 5 Table 6 Table 7 Table 8 Table 9 Table 10 Table 11 Table 12 Table 13 Sales of Mobile Phones: Volume 2006-2011 ............................................... 3 Sales of Mobile Phones: Value 2006-2011 .................................................. 4 Sales of Mobile Phones: % Volume Growth 2006-2011 ............................... 4 Sales of Mobile Phones: % Value Growth 2006-2011 .................................. 4 Mobile Phones Company Shares 2007-2011 ............................................... 4 Mobile Phones Brand Shares 2008-2011..................................................... 5 Sales of Mobile Phones by Distribution Format 2006-2011.......................... 5 Forecast Sales of Mobile Phones: Volume 2011-2016................................. 5 Forecast Sales of Mobile Phones: Value 2011-2016.................................... 6 Forecast Sales of Mobile Phones: % Volume Growth 2011-2016 ................ 6 Forecast Sales of Mobile Phones: % Value Growth 2011-2016 ................... 6 Smartphones by Operating System 2008-2013 ........................................... 6 Mobile Phones by Type of Contract 2006-2011 ........................................... 7

© Euromonitor International

MOBILE PHONES IN INDONESIA

Passport

1

MOBILE PHONES IN INDONESIA
HEADLINES
 Mobile phones sees robust 21% volume growth, to reach 35 million units sold in 2011  Blackberry fever continues in 2011  Smartphones captures all attention with 100% volume growth in 2011  Nokia still hangs on to volume leadership with 30% volume share in 2011  More stable good performance expected in the forecast period at 8% volume CAGR

TRENDS
 Mobile phones continued to be the star performer of consumer electronics in Indonesia up to 2011. Possession of mobile phones has grown rapidly over the historic period, and it was not uncommon for consumers to have several mobile phones by the end of 2011.  Amidst the smartphone fever, feature phones still formed the bulk of mobile phone sales in 2011. Whilstmany consumers have been lured by smartphones’ multiple features, the price of feature phones is still much lower, making it much more accessible for the bulk of population. In addition, there are also a good variety of feature phones also offering internet access including access to Facebook, Twitter and other social networking sites. Therefore, middle- to low-income Indonesians for the most part still find feature phones to be more than sufficient for their communication and social networking needs.  For feature phones, more local and Chinese brands had presence on the market, with competitive pricing, in 2011. In particular, the concept of the dual SIM card has taken off well for feature phones in Indonesia, due to Indonesian consumers’ penchant to ha ve multiple phone numbers in order to have lower calling costs to their contacts. This habit to have multiple numbers is also translated into the most common purchase of mobile phones as “phone only” over the historic period. Pay-as-you-go purchasesare less common, and a monthly subscription is the least popular type of contract, since a lot of Indonesians find subscriptions too expensive and unnecessary. Nonetheless, growth in monthly subscriptionsincreased in 2011, due to growing purchase of smartphones.  The smartphone boom has been largely attributable to consumers’ demand for convenience in social networking, with secondary reasons including convenience to take photos as well as play music. For a smartphone operating system, Symbian used to be the most popular OS in 2008 due to Nokia’s past leadership of smartphones. However, over the historic period, Blackberry has boomed – especially with its instant messaging BlackBerry Messenger (BBM), which resulted in BlackBerry OS overtaking Symbian by 2011. However, the OS that has caused the most buzz is the open-source Android, which has grown at an even faster pace since its debut in 2009, and by 2011 it had already become the second most popular OS, used by various smartphone brands in contrast to the exclusivity of BlackBerry OS. Android will likely be the leading smartphone OS in the future, with Samsung Galaxy III also to adopt Android for its OS.  Within mobile phones, there is growing trend in Indonesia for the product to be sold bundled with an internet access package, such as offers to buy Samsung mobile phone bundled with a 3-month internet subscription. Due to the growing popularity of various apps such as the BBM and Whatsapp, more Indonesian mobile phone owners keep changing mobile phone numbers just to latch onto the cheapest internet offer packages. This trend has been facilitated by BBM and Whatsapp being the most popular mobile messenger applications in 2011.

© Euromonitor International

MOBILE PHONES IN INDONESIA

Passport

2

 In 2011, CDMA mobile phones were becoming more popular to use for accessing the internet, although its usage is limited to only within a specific region, except for CDMA phones that use Smartfren or AHA SIM cards. Over the historic period, there was a significant increase in Indonesians using their mobile phones to act as internet modems, and usually they use CDMA phones, as these typically have a faster connection. Therefore, there is a shift away from using CDMA mobile phones just to make phone calls towards using them for accessing the internet. In fact, there is also a growing overall trend from making phone calls to sending Short Messaging Service (SMS) or text messages.  Up to 2011, the price gap between feature phones and smartphones remained quite steep, with the average feature phone costing only slightly over Rp1 million compared to an average of over Rp4 million for smartphones. Both feature phones and smartphones have seen their prices fall considerably over the historic period, but the decline in price of feature phones has been more significant in terms of making it affordable even to lower-income consumers. In comparison, the price decline for smartphones has made it more accessible to middle-income consumers.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
 The biggest player for mobile phones in 2011 remained Nokia Indonesia, but the company continuously lost volume share over the historic period and is in danger of being overtaken by Samsung within the next few years of the forecast period. In fact, second-ranked Samsung has also been declining in volume share in percentage terms due to the rapid rise of Research in Motion’s Blackberry; however, its volume share has declined at a slower rate than that of Nokia.  In feature phones, Nokia’s leadership weakened notably over the historic period, whilst Samsung managed to experience a lesser decline towards 2011. The biggest gainer was the Chinese company Huawei Technologies, which grewits volume share from 11% in 2006 to 15% by 2011. Huawei’s competitive pricing has appealed to lower -income consumers looking for a mobile phone they can afford. Affordability is also the key reason why local player Metrotech Jaya Komunika Indonesian withits Nexian brand was also able toincrease its volume shareover the historic period and in 2011.  Whilst local and Chinese players are growing in importance for feature phones, the opposite trend is seen in smartphones. Nokia and Sony were the early movers, and Nokia took an early lead of smartphones by launching more products. However, Blackberry entered with a bang in 2008, and has taken Indonesia by storm ever since. The Blackberry phenomenon has eroded Nokia’s share rapidly, and as of 2010 already had closed the gap very much. By 2011, Blackberry already became the clear leader of smartphones in Indonesia, with volume sales almost triple of Nokia’s.  Blackberry’s success has been driven by a number of factors. One key factor has been the use of the QWERTY keyboard, which has proven to appeal to Indonesians more than the touchscreen from the likes of iPhone. Indonesian consumers use their smartphones largely for chatting (such as using BBM) and find the physical keyboard more convenient to use. The other key factor is the success of Blackberry’s instant messaging system, BBM itself, with consumers finding the chatting feature of BBM to be very convenient way of staying in touch with friends, colleagues and relatives.  In smartphones, other players growing strongly in volume share are also the higher-end brands including Samsung. Ever since its entry in 2009, it has been the other key threat to Nokia and Blackberry. Its Samsung Galaxy series has been a particularly successful launch,

© Euromonitor International

MOBILE PHONES IN INDONESIA

Passport

3

and the company’s volume share in smartphones has grown from 8% in 2010 to 10% in 2011 thanks to Samsung Galaxy series.

PROSPECTS
 Mobile phones are still set for a bright future in Indonesia, with the penetration rate expected to keep improving to reach optimal level towards 2016. Overall volume growth will stabilise to a single-digit (8%) CAGR, with feature phone sales starting to decline – compared to the still healthy volume growth up to 2011 – whilst smartphones are set to post a double-digit volume CAGR of 23% over the forecast period.  Feature phones will remain very important for mobile phones sales in Indonesia throughout the forecast period. Even with a slight decline in volume sales, feature phone sales are only expected to be eclipsed by smartphones as late as 2016. As the penetration rate of mobile phones was not yet saturated by 2011, feature phones sales will come chiefly from new consumers from middle- to low-income brackets which look for affordable mobile phones. In addition, with Indonesians’ habit of owning more than a phone, even middle -income consumers are likely to have a smartphone and a feature phone, with the feature phone considered to be more as a backup or more reliable in terms of battery life.  Smartphones will, meanwhile, be the star performer over the forecast period, boosted by continued slashing of prices that will make the product more affordable to bigger proportion of Indonesians. Whilst the price of the average smartphone will remain several times higher than that of the average feature phones (as feature phone prices will also keep falling), more consumers may consider purchasing a smartphone to be more achievable in the forecast period.  A key uncertainty for smartphones will be the performance of Blackberry. The Blackberry smartphone itself has proven to be a huge success in Indonesia, which even caused a lot of buzz when Research in Motion (RIM) decided not to open a factory in Indonesia but to open one in Malaysia instead. The Indonesian government believes that the huge consumer demand justified the setting up of a factory to open up new employment opportunities. Whilst Blackberry’s popularity itself is likely to remain, the troubles faced by RIM globally raises questions about its ability to maintain brand presence for consumer sales of smartphones, even in a country like Indonesia where it has been very successful compared to Apple or Samsung.  With Blackberry’s uncertain future, android-based smartphones are most likely to benefit in volume share over the forecast period, such as Samsung. As such, the BlackBerry OS is likely to decline in volume share towards 2013, and Android OS is expected to emerge as the new leading OS in 2013. Windows OS, previously declining in the historic period, is expected to make a strong return in 2012 with the launch of Windows 8 OS.

CATEGORY DATA
Table 1 '000 units 2006 Feature Phones Smartphones Mobile Phones 10,811.8 480.7 11,292.5 2007 14,055.4 672.9 14,728.3 2008 18,272.0 1,076.7 19,348.7 2009 22,840.0 1,938.0 24,778.0 2010 24,500.0 4,500.0 29,000.0 2011 26,000.0 9,000.0 35,000.0 Sales of Mobile Phones: Volume 2006-2011

© Euromonitor International

MOBILE PHONES IN INDONESIA

Passport

4

Source:

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 2 Rp billion

Sales of Mobile Phones: Value 2006-2011

2006 Feature Phones Smartphones Mobile Phones
Source:

2007 23,606.7 4,063.5 27,670.2

2008 29,154.2 5,851.4 35,005.7

2009 27,768.6 9,690.0 37,458.6

2010 27,002.5 20,271.5 47,274.0

2011 26,752.1 39,525.9 66,278.0

19,114.7 3,414.7 22,529.4

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 3 % volume growth

Sales of Mobile Phones: % Volume Growth 2006-2011

2010/11 Feature Phones Smartphones Mobile Phones
Source:

2006-11 CAGR 19.2 79.7 25.4

2006/11 Total 140.5 1,772.4 209.9

6.1 100.0 20.7

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 4

Sales of Mobile Phones: % Value Growth 2006-2011

% current value growth 2010/11 Feature Phones Smartphones Mobile Phones
Source:

2006-11 CAGR 7.0 63.2 24.1

2006/11 Total 40.0 1,057.5 194.2

-0.9 95.0 40.2

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 5 % retail volume Company

Mobile Phones Company Shares 2007-2011

2007 38.8 30.1 11.5 7.6 5.7 1.4 -

2008 37.7 29.6 12.3 0.4 8.3 5.4 1.4 -

2009 35.9 29.5 12.9 1.2 8.3 5.3 0.5 1.2 -

2010 33.4 27.2 12.6 3.1 7.7 4.7 0.9 1.2 0.0

2011 29.8 25.7 10.9 10.6 7.1 4.1 1.5 1.2 0.4

Nokia Indonesia PT Samsung Electronics Indonesia PT Huawei Technologies Co Ltd Research in Motion Ltd Metrotech Jaya Komunika Indonesian PT LG Electronics Indonesia PT High Tech Computer Corp Sony Indonesia PT Motorola Indonesia PT

© Euromonitor International

MOBILE PHONES IN INDONESIA

Passport

5

Apple Computer Inc Others Total
Source:

5.0 100.0

0.2 4.7 100.0

0.2 5.0 100.0

0.3 9.0 100.0

0.2 8.6 100.0

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 6 % retail volume Brand Nokia Samsung Huawei Blackberry Nexian LG HTC Sony Ericsson Motorola iphone Others Total
Source:

Mobile Phones Brand Shares 2008-2011

Company Nokia Indonesia PT Samsung Electronics Indonesia PT Huawei Technologies Co Ltd Research in Motion Ltd Metrotech Jaya Komunika Indonesian PT LG Electronics Indonesia PT High Tech Computer Corp Sony Indonesia PT Motorola Indonesia PT Apple Computer Inc

2008 37.7 29.6 12.3 0.4 8.3 5.4 1.4 0.2 4.7 100.0

2009 35.9 29.5 12.9 1.2 8.3 5.3 0.5 1.2 0.2 5.0 100.0

2010 33.4 27.2 12.6 3.1 7.7 4.7 0.9 1.2 0.3 9.0 100.0

2011 29.8 25.7 10.9 10.6 7.1 4.1 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.2 8.6 100.0

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 7 % retail volume

Sales of Mobile Phones by Distribution Format 2006-2011

2006 Store-Based Retailing - Grocery Retailers -- Discounters -- Hypermarkets -- Supermarkets - Non-Grocery Retailers -- Electronics and Appliance Specialist Retailers -- Mixed Retailers - Other store-based retailing Non-Store Retailing - Direct Selling - Homeshopping - Internet Retailing Total
Source:

2007 100.0 14.7 14.7 79.5 79.5

2008 99.8 14.8 14.8 77.5 77.5

2009 99.7 14.9 14.9 76.0 76.0

2010 99.6 15.0 15.0 75.5 75.5

2011 99.5 15.1 15.1 75.0 75.0

100.0 14.6 14.6 80.0 80.0

5.4 0.0 0.0 100.0

5.8 0.0 0.0 100.0

7.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 100.0

8.8 0.3 0.0 0.3 100.0

9.1 0.4 0.0 0.4 100.0

9.4 0.5 0.0 0.5 100.0

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 8

Forecast Sales of Mobile Phones: Volume 2011-2016

© Euromonitor International

MOBILE PHONES IN INDONESIA

Passport

6

'000 units 2011 Feature Phones Smartphones Mobile Phones
Source:

2012 26,930.0 13,500.0 40,430.0

2013 27,564.4 17,550.0 45,114.4

2014 28,024.3 20,182.5 48,206.8

2015 27,033.8 23,008.1 50,041.8

2016 25,276.4 25,769.0 51,045.5

26,000.0 9,000.0 35,000.0

Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 9 Rp billion

Forecast Sales of Mobile Phones: Value 2011-2016

2011 Feature Phones Smartphones Mobile Phones
Source:

2012 25,082.5 53,360.0 78,442.5

2013 23,093.7 64,032.0 87,125.7

2014 21,199.6 67,873.9 89,073.4

2015 19,470.5 70,131.9 89,602.4

2016 17,248.3 72,580.3 89,828.6

26,752.1 39,525.9 66,278.0

Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 10 % volume growth

Forecast Sales of Mobile Phones: % Volume Growth 2011-2016

2015/16 Feature Phones Smartphones Mobile Phones
Source:

2011-16 CAGR -0.6 23.4 7.8

2011/16 Total -2.8 186.3 45.8

-6.5 12.0 2.0

Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 11

Forecast Sales of Mobile Phones: % Value Growth 2011-2016

% constant value growth 2011-16 CAGR Feature Phones Smartphones Mobile Phones
Source:

2011/16 TOTAL -35.5 83.6 35.5

-8.4 12.9 6.3

Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 12 % retail volume

Smartphones by Operating System 2008-2013

2008 Windows IOS Android Symbian BlackBerry OS 30.0 3.5 50.0 8.0

2009 25.0 3.0 15.0 35.0 15.0

2010 24.0 1.7 24.0 21.0 20.0

2011 10.0 0.9 25.0 15.0 41.4

2012 20.0 0.8 33.0 37.0

2013 22.0 0.8 35.0 32.5

© Euromonitor International

MOBILE PHONES IN INDONESIA

Passport

7

Others Total
Source:

8.5 100.0

7.0 100.0

9.3 100.0

7.8 100.0

9.2 100.0

9.8 100.0

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 13 % retail volume

Mobile Phones by Type of Contract 2006-2011

2006 Monthly subscription Pay as you go Phone only Total
Source:

2007 0.6 13.0 86.4 100.0

2008 1.0 13.5 85.5 100.0

2009 1.5 14.0 84.5 100.0

2010 2.5 14.5 83.0 100.0

2011 2.9 15.0 82.1 100.0

0.8 12.5 86.8 100.0

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, store checks, trade interviews, trade sources

© Euromonitor International

Sponsor Documents

Or use your account on DocShare.tips

Hide

Forgot your password?

Or register your new account on DocShare.tips

Hide

Lost your password? Please enter your email address. You will receive a link to create a new password.

Back to log-in

Close