NOAA Trajectory for 20100512
Content
Trajectory Forecast Mississippi Canyon 252
NOAA/NOS/OR&R Estimate for: 1800 CDT, Wednesday, 5/12/10 Date Prepared: 1700 CDT, Monday, 5/10/10
This forecast is based on the NWS spot forecast from Monday, May 10 PM. Currents were obtained from the NOAA Gulf of Mexico, West Florida Shelf/USF, Texas A&M/TGLO, and NAVO/NRL models and HFR measurements. The model was initialized from Monday afternoon overflight observations, satellite/aerial imagery and analysis provided by NOAA/NESDIS and Transport Canada. The leading edge may contain tarballs that are not readily observable from the imagery (hence not included in the model initialization). Oil near bay inlets could be brought into that bay by local tidal currents.
Mobile Gulfport Bay St Louis
Chandeleur Sound Breton Sound
Pascagoula
Mobile Bay
Pensacola
Milton
Morgan City
Atchafalaya Bay
Venice
Forecast location for oil on 12-May-10 at 1800 CDT
F G
Mississippi Canyon 252 Incident Location
0 20 40 Miles 80
Winds are forecast to be persistently from the SE throughout the week. These moderately-strong onshore winds (up to 15-20 kts) have the potential to move new oil onshore. The Mississippi Delta, Breton Sound, the Chandeleur Islands and areas directly north have a potential for shoreline contacts throughout the forecast period. West of the Mississippi Delta, the shoreline west of Barataria Bay to Isles Dernieres is threatened on Monday. With continued winds from the SE, oil observed west of the Delta could threaten shorelines as far west as Oyster Bayou on Tuesday, and Atchafalaya Bay on Wednesday.
Uncertainty Light Medium Heavy Potential X beached oil
Trajectory
Next Forecast: May 11th PM
NOAA/NOS/OR&R Estimate for: 1800 CDT, Wednesday, 5/12/10 Date Prepared: 1700 CDT, Monday, 5/10/10
This forecast is based on the NWS spot forecast from Monday, May 10 PM. Currents were obtained from the NOAA Gulf of Mexico, West Florida Shelf/USF, Texas A&M/TGLO, and NAVO/NRL models and HFR measurements. The model was initialized from Monday afternoon overflight observations, satellite/aerial imagery and analysis provided by NOAA/NESDIS and Transport Canada. The leading edge may contain tarballs that are not readily observable from the imagery (hence not included in the model initialization). Oil near bay inlets could be brought into that bay by local tidal currents.
Mobile Gulfport Bay St Louis
Chandeleur Sound Breton Sound
Pascagoula
Mobile Bay
Pensacola
Milton
Morgan City
Atchafalaya Bay
Venice
Forecast location for oil on 12-May-10 at 1800 CDT
F G
Mississippi Canyon 252 Incident Location
0 20 40 Miles 80
Winds are forecast to be persistently from the SE throughout the week. These moderately-strong onshore winds (up to 15-20 kts) have the potential to move new oil onshore. The Mississippi Delta, Breton Sound, the Chandeleur Islands and areas directly north have a potential for shoreline contacts throughout the forecast period. West of the Mississippi Delta, the shoreline west of Barataria Bay to Isles Dernieres is threatened on Monday. With continued winds from the SE, oil observed west of the Delta could threaten shorelines as far west as Oyster Bayou on Tuesday, and Atchafalaya Bay on Wednesday.
Uncertainty Light Medium Heavy Potential X beached oil
Trajectory
Next Forecast: May 11th PM
