Photovoltaic Solar Energy
Content
Photovoltaic Solar Energy
Futures
Presented to the
Minnesota Futurists
16 May 2009
Dick Saunders and David Keenan
But first a word from our
sponsor
The Futurist Tool
of the day
Trend Analysis and Extrapolation
Trend Analysis & Extrapolation
• A Method Everyone Uses
• Trend analysis involves the use of any of a variety of techniques based
on historical data.
• Trend analysis involves several processes. One process is spotting an
emerging trend, that is, identifying a change in the world around us.
• Now you need to do some analysis to see what the nature of the trend is
and what its implications might be.
• You could first look at historical data
http://crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/futuristmethods.htm
Trend Analysis & Extrapolation
Trend Analysis & Extrapolation
• Trend analysis requires that you do more than simply extrapolate the
trend forward.
• You have to ask, what is causing this trend, and will those causes
continue indefinitely?
• Are there upper limits to the trend?
• What other forces may affect the trend?
• At this point trend analysis relies more on subjective judgment rather
than objective extrapolation of historical data.
• Assuming that the future will be like the past or that past changes will
continue in the same direction and rate is a perfectly sensible way to
begin trying to understand the future.
• It can not, however, be the end of our endeavors, or we would end up
with absurd results.
http://crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/futuristmethods.htm
Trends to Analyze in This Talk
• Solar Cells
– Market size
– Market share
– Sales
– Units
– Power produced
– Cost per power delivered
Agenda
• The Sun
• Solar Cells
– Background
– How they work
– Types
•
•
•
•
•
Markets
Costs
Countries
Companies
Questions
Now on with the show
Energy from the Sun
• About half the incoming solar energy reaches the Earth's surface.
• The Earth receives 174 petawatts (PW) (1015 watts) of incoming solar
radiation at the upper atmosphere. Approximately 30% is reflected back
to space while the rest is absorbed by clouds, oceans and land masses.
• Earth's land surface, oceans and atmosphere absorb solar radiation, and
this raises their temperature. Sunlight absorbed by the oceans and land
masses keeps the surface at an average temperature of 14 °C.
• By photosynthesis green plants convert solar energy into chemical
energy, which produces food, wood and the biomass from which fossil
fuels are derived.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy
Breakdown of incoming solar energy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Breakdown_of_the_incoming_solar_energy.svg
Energy from the Sun
Yearly Solar fluxes & Human Energy Consumption
• The total solar energy absorbed by Earth's atmosphere, oceans and land
masses is approximately 3,850,000 exajoules (EJ) (1018 joules) per year.
(70% of incoming sunlight)
(1 Joule = energy required to heat one gram of dry, cool air by 1˚ C)
• Primary energy use (2005) 487 EJ (0.0126%)
• Electricity (2005) 56.7 EJ (0.0015%) Therefore a good target
• 2002, more energy in one hour than the world used in the year.
• Photosynthesis captures approximately 3,000 EJ per year in biomass.
• The amount of solar energy reaching the surface of the planet is so vast
that in one year it is about twice as much as will ever be obtained from all
of the Earth's non-renewable resources of coal, oil, natural gas, and
mined uranium combined.
• As intermittent resources, solar and wind raise issues.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy
Solar Cells Background
• 1839 - French physicist A. E. Becquerel first recognized the
photovoltaic effect.
• Photo+voltaic = convert light to electricity
• 1883 - first solar cell built, by Charles Fritts, coated semiconductor
selenium with an extremely thin layer of gold to form the junctions.
• 1954 - Bell Laboratories, experimenting with semiconductors,
accidentally found that silicon doped with certain impurities was very
sensitive to light. Daryl Chapin, Calvin Fuller and Gerald Pearson,
invented the first practical device for converting sunlight into useful
electrical power. Resulted in the production of the first practical solar
cells with a sunlight energy conversion efficiency of around 6%.
• 1958 - First spacecraft to use solar panels was US satellite Vanguard 1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell
PV Solar for Electricity
Photovoltaics
• For the 2 billion people without access to electricity, it would be
cheaper to install solar panels than to extend the electrical grid.
(The Fund for Renewable Energy Everywhere)
• Providing power for villages in developing countries is a fast-growing
market for photovoltaics. The United Nations estimates that more than
2 million villages worldwide are without electric power for water supply,
refrigeration, lighting, and other basic needs, and the cost of extending
the utility grids is prohibitive, $23,000 to $46,000 per kilometer in 1988.
• A one kilowatt PV system* each month:
–
–
–
–
prevents 150 lbs. of coal from being mined
prevents 300 lbs. of CO2 from entering the atmosphere
keeps 105 gallons of water from being consumed
keeps NO and SO2 from being released into the environment
* in Colorado, or an equivalent system that produces 150 kWh per month
http://www.solarenergy.org/resources/energyfacts.html
How Solar Cells Work
1. Photons in sunlight hit the
solar panel and are absorbed
by semiconducting materials,
such as silicon.
2. Electrons (negatively charged)
are knocked loose from their
atoms, allowing them to flow
through the material to
produce electricity.
3. An array of solar cells
converts solar energy into a
usable amount of
direct current (DC) electricity.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Silicon_Solar_cell_structure_and_mechanism.svg
Solar Cells Background
Three generations of solar cells
• Solar Cells are classified into three generations which indicates the
order of which each became important.
• At present there is concurrent research into all three generations
while the first generation technologies are most highly represented in
commercial production, accounting for 89.6% of 2007 production.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell
Solar Cells Background
First Generation – Single Junction Silicon Cells
89.6% of 2007 Production
45.2% Single Crystal Si
42.2% Multi-crystal SI
Silicon Cell Average Efficiency
• Large-area, high quality and
single junction devices.
• High energy and labor inputs which
limit significant progress in reducing
production costs.
• Single junction silicon devices are
approaching theoretical limit efficiency
of 33%. Achieve cost parity with fossil fuel
energy generation after a payback period
of 5–7 years. (3.5 yr in Europe)
• Single crystal silicon - 16-19% efficiency
• Multi-crystal silicon - 14-15% efficiency
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell and www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sept 08
Solar Cells Background
Second Generation – Thin Film Cells
CdTe 4.7% & CIGS 0.5% of 2007 Production
•
New materials and processes to improve efficiency and reduce cost.
•
As manufacturing techniques evolve, production costs will be dominated by
constituent material requirements, whether this be a silicon substrate, or glass
cover. Thin film cells use about 1% of the expensive semiconductors compared
to First Generation cells.
•
The most successful second generation materials have been cadmium
telluride (CdTe), copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), amorphous silicon
and micromorphous silicon.
•
Trend toward second gen., but commercialization has proven difficult.
– 2007 - First Solar produced 200 MW of CdTe solar cells, 5th largest producer in 2007
and the first to reach top 10 from of second generation technologies alone.
– 2007 - Wurth Solar commercialized its CIGS technology producing 15 MW.
– 2007 - Nanosolar commercialized its CIGS technology in 2007 with a production
.
capacity of 430 MW for 2008 in the USA and Germany.
– 2008 - Honda began to commercialize their CIGS base solar panel.
• CdTe – 8 – 11% efficiency (18% demonstrated)
• CIGS – 7-11% efficiency (20% demonstrated)
• Payback time < 1 year in Europe
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell and www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sept 08
Solar Cells Background
Third Generation – Multi-junction Cells
• Third generation technologies aim to enhance poor electrical performance
of second generation (thin-film technologies) while maintaining very low
production costs.
• Current research is targeting conversion efficiencies of 30-60% while
retaining low cost materials and manufacturing techniques. They can
exceed the theoretical solar conversion efficiency limit for a single energy
threshold material, 31% under 1 sun illumination and 40.8% under the
maximal artificial concentration of sunlight (46,200 suns).
• Approaches to achieving these high efficiencies including the use of
multijunction photovoltaic cells, concentration of the incident spectrum,
the use of thermal generation by UV light to enhance voltage or carrier
collection, or the use of the infrared spectrum for night-time operation.
• Typically use fresnel lens (3M) or other concentrators, but cannot use
diffuse sunlight and require sun tracking hardware
• Multi-junction cells – 30% efficiency (40-43% demonstrated)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell and www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sept 08
Global Cumulative PV Power
http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publications/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2013.pdf
Global Annual PV Market
http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publications/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2013.pdf
Solar Cell Market Estimate
-- First Generation --
--
SEMI PV Group March 2009 from source Yole Development
Second Generation --
- Third Gen -
Global Annual PV Market Outlook
http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publications/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2013.pdf
Solar PV Market Outlook
Sales in Billions
Annual PV Market Outlook
$700
Rest of World
$600
South Asia
$500
China
$400
Central + South
America
North America
$300
$200
Europe
$100
$2007
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
by 2030 8.9% of Global Energy, 1,864 GW Production Capacity, 2,646 TWh Electricity
SEMI PV Group March 2009 from source EPIA Solar Generation V Sept 08 www.epia.org
Cost Projections
“Grid parity’ where PV cost
are equal to residential
electricity costs is
expected to be achieved
first in southern European
countries and then to
move north
$/kWh
$1.35
$1.07
$0.81
$0.54
$0.27
$0.13 ---
www.epia.org EPIA Solar Generation V Report Sept 08
Cumulative installed solar electric
power by 2007
•
•
•
•
1st Germany
2nd Japan
3rd US
4th Spain
3.8 GW
1.9 GW
814 MW
632 MW
World's largest photovoltaic (PV)
power plants (12 MW or larger)
Name of PV power plant
Country
DC
Peak
Power
(MW)
GW·h
/year
85
Notes
Olmedilla Photovoltaic Park
Spain
60
Puertollano Photovoltaic Park
Spain
50
Moura photovoltaic power station
Portugal
46
93
Completed December 2008
Waldpolenz Solar Park
Germany
40
40
550,000 First Solar thin-film CdTe
modules. Completed Dec 2008
Arnedo Solar Plant
Spain
34
Completed October 2008
Merida/Don Alvaro Solar Park
Spain
30
Completed September 2008
17 more
2 more
Spain
Korea
Avg 20
Avg 20
Koethen
Germany
14.75
13
200,000 First Solar thin-film CdTe
modules. Completed Dec 2008
Nellis Solar Power Plant
USA
14.02
30
70,000 solar panels
Planta Solar de Salamanca
6 more Spain, 1 US, 1 Germany
Spain
13.8
Avg 12
n.a.
70,000 Kyocera panels
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stations
Completed September 2008
2008
Large systems in planning or under
construction
Name of Plant
Country
DC
Peak
Power
(MW)
GW·h
/year
Notes
Rancho Cielo Solar Farm
USA
600
Topaz Solar Farm
USA
550
1,100
Thin film silicon from OptiSolar **
High Plains Ranch
USA
250
550
Monocrystaline silicon from SunPower with
tracking **
Mildura Solar concentrator power
station
Australia
154
270
Heliostat concentrator using GaAs cells from
Spectrolab**
KCRD Solar Farm
USA
80
Scheduled to be completed in 2012 **
DeSoto County, Florida
USA
25
To be constructed by SunPower for FPL Energy,
completion date 2009.*
Davidson County solar farm
USA
21.5
36 individual structures**
Cádiz solar power plant
Spain
20.1
Kennedy Space Center, Florida
USA
10
* Under construction; ** Proposed
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stations
Thin film silicon from Signet Solar**
36
*
To be constructed by SunPower for FPL Energy,
completion date 2010.**
Spain
• Blessed with almost year-round sunshine, Spain's socialist
government is trying to capitalize on this natural resource.
• In an effort to encourage private individuals and companies to install
solar power, Spain introduced subsidies of €0.42 per kilowatt per
hour ($0.57/KWhr) (‘feed-in’ tariff and off-grid subsidies)
• But the Spanish government is considering reducing this subsidy in
September, a move which is likely to face opposition from within the
solar energy industry.
• 2007: 26,800 employees in Spanish solar companies
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jul/09/solarpower.renewableenergy 9 July 2008
www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008
Olmedilla Solar Park
60 MWp photovoltaic park installed by Nobesol with modules from Silikin
http://www.siliken.com/clientes_proyectos/instalaciones/ficha?contentId=572
Germany
• 10,000 companies, including installers work in solar PV
• 80 companies are cell and module makers
• 42,000 employees
• Sales were $5.7 B including $2.5 B in exports
The ‘feed-in’ tariff
• 2008 German utilities pay $0.47 to $0.68/kWh depending on type
and size of system for new solar systems
• Utilities pass cost to consumers – Germany average is $1.65/month
www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008
Waldpolenz Solar Park
• The Waldpolenz Solar Park is built on a surface area equivalent to 200
soccer fields, the solar park will be capable of feeding 40 megawatts into
the power grid when fully operational in 2009.
• In the start-up phase, the 130-million-euro ($201 million) plant it will have a
capacity of 24 megawatts, according to the Juwi group, which operates the
installation.
• The facility, located east of Leipzig, uses state-of-the-art, thin-film
technology. Some 550,000 thin-film modules will be used, of which
350,000 have already been installed. The direct current produced in the
PV solar modules will be converted into alternating current and fed
completely into the power grid.
• After just a year the solar power station will have produced the energy
needed to build it, according to the Juwi group.
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3430319,00.html
Waldpolenz Solar Park
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3430319,00.html
Waldpolenz Solar Park
http://lumbergusa.com/main/Bild/sp_pv_07/Brandis-Waldpolenz-Fotomont.jpg
United States
• 2007 - PV production grew in all areas of US market
• US leads development of thin-film technology accounting for nearly
half the global production
• 2007 – about 50,000 employees
• CA dominates with 60% of installed capacity
• Various state Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and Federal
Investment Tax Credits (ITC) are incentives.
• Solar America Initiative making progress on goal to bring PV costs
to grid parity by 2015
www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008
Renewable Energy Consumption
in the US Energy Supply, 2007
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/highlight1.html
Chart Data
Figure 1.1 The Role of Renewable Energy Consumption in the Nation's
Energy Supply, 2007 (Quadrillion Btu)
Consumption
Total US
Share
101.545
Coal
22.776
22%
Natural Gas
23.637
23%
Petroleum
39.773
39%
Nuclear Electric Power
8.415
8%
Renewable Energy:
6.813
7%
Hydroelectric
2.446
36%
Geothermal Energy
0.349
5%
Biomass
3.596
53%
Solar Energy
0.081
1%
Wind Energy
0.341
5%
Of which:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/figure1_1.xls
US Solar Industry Data
Solar energy represents less than 1% of the U.S. energy mix. However, as a result of
growing awareness about reliable, off-the-shelf technology, concerns about rising costs,
energy security and supplies, and new state and federal incentives, deployment of solar
energy has exploded since 2005.
•
Size of U.S. Market
2008 - U.S. had about 8,800 megawatts (MW) of installed solar capacity.
1,100 MW of photovoltaics (PV),
418 MW of utility-scale concentrating solar power,
485 MWTh (megawatts thermal equivalent) of solar water heating systems
7,000 MWTh of solar pool heating systems.
•
Ranking of U.S. Market: Cumulative installed solar electric power by 2007.
1st Germany 3.8 GW, 2nd Japan 1.9 GW, 3rd US 814 MW, 4th Spain 632 MW
•
Growth of U.S. Market 2008 - more than 18,000 individual PV systems were
installed. Totaled 342 MW: 292 MW was grid-connected.
•
Growth of U.S. Manufacturing 2008 domestic PV cell manufacturing capacity
grew 65 percent to 685 MW and production grew 53 percent to 414 MW. (Results
preliminary) (Source: Greentech Media Research and the Prometheus Institute)
www.seia.org/cs/about_solar_energy/industry_data and www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008
Nellis AFB Solar panels
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Nellis_AFB_Solar_panels.jpg
GM installs world's biggest
rooftop solar panels
• The largest rooftop solar power station in the world is being built in Spain.
With a capacity of 12 MW of power, the station is made up of 85,000
lightweight panels covering an area of two million SqFt.
• Manufactured in rolls, rather like carpet, the photovoltaic panels are to be
installed on the roof of a General Motors car factory in Zaragoza, Spain.
• General Motors, which plans to install solar panels at another 11 plants
across Europe, unveiled the €50M ($68M) project yesterday. The power
station should be producing energy by September.
• The panels will produce an expected annual output of 15.1 million kilowatt
hours (kWh) - enough to meet the needs of 4,600 households with an
average consumption of 3,300kWh, or power a third of the GM factory. The
solar energy produced should cut CO2 emissions by 6,700 tons a year.
• Energy Conversion Devices who makes the panels, said it would be the
largest rooftop solar array in the world.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jul/09/solarpower.renewableenergy 9 July 2008
GM installs world's biggest
rooftop solar panels
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jul/09/solarpower.renewableenergy 9 July 2008
Japan
• 2002 - Basic Act on Energy Policy to secure stable energy supply,
environmental suitability and use of market mechanisms
• By 2006, installed 1.2 GW for 350,000 homes
• 2008 – New research initiative to improve yields from 10-15% to
40% and reduce cost from $0.48/kWh to $0.073/kWh
www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008
China
• 2007
• National Renewable Energy targets
– 10% by 2010 (300 MW)
– 15% by 2020 (1.8 GW)
•
•
•
•
Supplies 1,130 tons of polysilicon from 6 companies
Supplies 21,400 tons of silicon ingot from 70 companies
Number 1 PV panel producer – 1.1 GW
50 PV panel companies including Suntech, Yingli, Hebei
Jingao, Jiansu Linyang, and Nangjing CEEG
• 82,800 employees (6 times that of 2005)
www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008
Top 10 PV Cell Producers
Until recently BP Solar was
dominant supplier.
New Top 10 produce
53% of world total
Q-Cells, SolarWorld - Germany
Sharp, Kyocera, Sharp, Sanyo –
Japan
Suntech, Yingli, JA Solar – China
Motech - Taiwan
BP Solar
•
BP Solar to supply PV power systems for Wal-Mart in CA 22 April 2009
•
Under a power purchase agreement (PPA), BP will finance, install and maintain
the systems and Wal-Mart will have immediate access to clean electricity with no
up front capital cost to the retailer.
•
Will initially build 10 to 20 rooftop systems at Wal-Mart locations in California, and
would work with the retailer to evaluate the potential for additional projects.
Expects to complete the first set, 10 MW of installed solar power, within about 18
months.
•
2008 BP completed 4.1 MW solar systems for 7 Wal-Marts & Sam’s Clubs in CA.
•
Since 1998, BP guarantees its modules for 25 years.
•
BP Solar, part of BP Alternative Energy, is a global company with about 2000
employees. With over 35 years of experience and installations in most countries,
BP Solar is one of the world's leading solar companies.
•
BP is one of the world’s largest energy companies, in more than 100 countries
and over 96,000 employees.
http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9025044&contentId=7046577
BP axes 620 jobs from solar business
• 01 April, 2009 - BP to axe 620 jobs from its solar power business
– more than a quarter of that workforce – in a move it said was
part of the long-term strategy to "reduce the cost of solar power to
that of conventional electricity.“
• Two cell manufacture and module assembly plants near Madrid, will
be shut with the loss of 480 posts while module assembly will also
be phased out at its Frederick facility in Maryland, US, with a further
140 redundancies.
• BP blamed the cutbacks on the credit crunch and lower-cost
competition saying its global manufacturing capacity would still
increase during this year and next via a series of strategic alliances
with other companies.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/01/bp-solar
Q Cells SE
• 1999 founded, 2001 began with the production of silicon solar cells
with 19 employees.
• By 2009, 2,600 employees (2007, 1700 employees)
• Now the largest solar cell manufacturer in the world. (since 2007)
• Continue to expand production in Bitterfeld-Wolfen, Germany and
start construction of new Malaysian production facility.
• Alongside the monocrystalline and polycrystalline (90% of business)
core business, we use a wide range of technologies to develop and
produce thin-film modules. (thin-film - 25% share of smaller market)
• 2008 Sales $1.69 B
2007 Sales $1.16 B profitable
• QCE: Frankfurt exchange
http://www.q-cells.com/en and http://www.google.com/finance?q=FRA%3AQCE
Sharp Solar
• Subsidiary of Sharp Electronics, Osaka, Japan
• Produces silicon solar cells and thin film, leveraging silicon knowledge
from LCD manufacturing
• 2008, capacity will reach 1.6 million square meters of thin-film modules,
as we simultaneously build the world's largest thin film manufacturing
complex, capable of 10 million square meters per year. And this
gigawatt-scale factory is only the first to come. Katsuga City, Nara and
Sakai City, Osaka, Japan
• Thin film efficiency 9%, expecting 10% from GW factory line.
• Sharp powers more homes and businesses than any other solar mfg in
the world. First mfgr to reach 2 GW cumulative production since mass
production start in 1963
• Memphis, TN – 100 MW manufacturing facility
http://solar.sharpusa.com/solar/solar_thin_film/1,,3-6,00.html and http://www.sharpusa.com/files/sol_dow_ThinFilm_101408.pdf
SunTech Power
• BEIJING, Jan 12, 2009 (Xinhua via COMTEX)
• China’s solar product maker SunTech Power Holdings Co., Ltd.
(STP.NYSE) recently laid off 800 workers or 10 percent of its total
employees and postponed its previous plan on recruiting 2,000 people,
said Shi Zhengrong, chairman and CEO.
• SunTech delayed plan to expand production capacity to 1.5 GW in 2009,
which requires 2,000 more employees.
• Plants in Wuxi and other areas are in normal operation with more than
50% capacity running, compared with 85% prior to financial meltdown.
• SunTech has received more than 800 MW of orders in 2009 including
650 MW from Europe. 2008 overall orders of 500 MW.
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/2119252/
SunTech Power
•
•
•
•
•
•
Sales $1.9B 2008, 1.3B 2007 profitable
Employees: 6784
STP:NYSE
Wuxi, China
Worlds largest silicon cell maker
Average conversion efficiency rates of their monocrystalline and
multicrystalline silicon PV cells 16.4% and 14.9% respectively
• 10 May 2009 announces plan to build manufacturing plant in US, now
shopping states for incentives
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:STP
Kyocera Solar
• US Solar Division – Scottsdale, AZ
• Subsidiary of Kyocera, Kyoto, Japan (KYO:NYSE) $13B 2008
• 2008 broke ground for new plant in Tianjin City, China to expand
there from 60 MW to 240 MW by 2011. First one in China ‘03
• 2012 total production capacity to be 650 MW from Japan, Mexico,
the Czech Republic and Tianjin.
• Technology built on knowledge of fine ceramics, with metals,
plastics, and electronics developed for copiers and printers
http://www.kyocerasolar.com/about/
First Solar
• TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 24, 2009-- First Solar, Inc.
(Nasdaq: FSLR) today announced it reduced its manufacturing cost for
solar modules in the fourth quarter to 98 cents per watt, breaking the $1
per watt price barrier.
• 2004 Began full commercial operation. Manufacturing capacity has
grown to more than 500 MW in 2008 and will double in 2009 to more
than 1 GW, the equivalent of an average-sized nuclear power plant.
• Escalating volumes accompanied by a rapid reduction in manufacturing
costs. Manufacturing costs have declined from over $3 per watt to less
than $1 per watt. Further significant cost reductions are possible.
• First Solar has industry’s first and only comprehensive pre-funded, endof-life module collection and recycling program, recycling more than
90% of each collected module into new products. (A serious issue due
to Cadmium-Telluride)
• High throughput, automated lines that integrate each production step,
from CdTe semiconductor deposition to final assembly and test, in one
continuous process. This advanced manufacturing process transforms a
piece of glass into a complete solar module in less than 2.5 hours.
www.firstsolar.com/
First Solar
•
•
•
•
Sales $1.2B 2008, $504M 2007, profitable
Employees: 3524
Tempe, AZ
FSLR:NASDAQ
finance.google.com
Motech Industries
• Modern Technology for a Sustainable World
• Founded 1981, Motech Solar started 1997
• 2003 Publicly trades 6244: Taiwan Exchange
• 2008 8th largest manufacturer 272 MW crystalline and multi-crystal
silicon solar cells
• Plants in Tianan,Taiwan and Kunshan, China
• 2008 Sales $691M, profitable
• 1,331 employees
www.motech.com.tw
Shell dumps wind, solar and hydro
power in favor of biofuels
• Shell will no longer invest in renewable technologies such as wind,
solar and hydro power because they are not economic, the AngloDutch oil company said today. 17 Mar 09
• Sold US operations to SolarWorld - Germany
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/17/royaldutchshell-energy
SolarWorld AG
• SWV: Frankfurt exchange
• 1,825 employees
• Bonn, Germany with production in Freiborg and Sweden
• 2006 acquired assets from Shell Solar which had been largest US solar
products maker (fka Arco Solar and Siemens Solar)
– Camarillo, CA and Vancouver, WA
• 2007 acquired Komatsu silicon wafer production facility Hillsboro, OR
• Single and multi-crystalline silicon cells
http://www.google.com/finance?q=FRA:SWV
Sun Power
• Founded 1985, purchased by Cypress Semiconductor in 2004, spun
out in 2008. SPWRA and SPWRB NASDAQ
• HQs in San Jose and Geneva, Switzerland
• 12 polysilicon solar cell line in Philippines with capacity 314 MW/yr
• Expansion plan for 1 GW capacity by 2010
• High efficiency cells: 21-23%
– PG&E plans 250 MW facility in CA by 2012
– FPL DeSoto Cty 35 MW facility due to open 2009
– Nellis 14 MW facility on line
• Sales: $1.4B for 2008, $775M for 2007 profitable
• Employees: 5,400
http://us.sunpowercorp.com/utility/
SunPower Solar Cell
http://us.sunpowercorp.com/utility/why-sunpower/best-technology/
Energy Conversion Devices /
United Solar Ovonics
• ENER:NASDAQ
• Rochester Hills, MI
• Amorphous silicon thin film process
on stainless steel
• Over 20 years, manufacturing
capacity increased from 500 KW to
25 MW/yr
• Now 3 miles/day
• Sales $255M for 2008, $114M for
2007, slight profit 2008
• Employees: 1090
http://www.uni-solar.com
Ovonics Roll-roll Process
http://www.uni-solar.com/uploadedFiles/Uni-SolarTechnologyandManufacturingProcessAppendix.pdf
Silikin
• Since 2001, SILIKEN has obtained a significant share on the Spanish
PV market and has installed more than 160 MW of solar PV energy,
= 240 GWh, the electricity consumption of more than 63,595 homes.
• Number of employees: Currently 700 people.
Valencia, Tenerife and Albacete, Spain and San Diego, CA
• Sales: €152 million ($207 million) in 2007.
• Peak power manufactured: has become one of the main
manufacturers of PV modules, supplying 92 MW to the market in ‘08.
http://www.siliken.com/quienes/historia?languageId=1
Some Questions
• Will ‘peak minerals’ (rising cost due to limits in availability) limit
growth of thin film and third generation solar cells?
• Will demand growth in China and India limit growth in US?
• How about the impact of other national / regional subsidies?
• How will financial meltdown impact solar cell business?
• What competing technologies would upset the solar industry?
• How will cost and efficiency of 2nd and 3rd generation solar cells
impact the businesses built on 1st generation technology?
Futures
Presented to the
Minnesota Futurists
16 May 2009
Dick Saunders and David Keenan
But first a word from our
sponsor
The Futurist Tool
of the day
Trend Analysis and Extrapolation
Trend Analysis & Extrapolation
• A Method Everyone Uses
• Trend analysis involves the use of any of a variety of techniques based
on historical data.
• Trend analysis involves several processes. One process is spotting an
emerging trend, that is, identifying a change in the world around us.
• Now you need to do some analysis to see what the nature of the trend is
and what its implications might be.
• You could first look at historical data
http://crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/futuristmethods.htm
Trend Analysis & Extrapolation
Trend Analysis & Extrapolation
• Trend analysis requires that you do more than simply extrapolate the
trend forward.
• You have to ask, what is causing this trend, and will those causes
continue indefinitely?
• Are there upper limits to the trend?
• What other forces may affect the trend?
• At this point trend analysis relies more on subjective judgment rather
than objective extrapolation of historical data.
• Assuming that the future will be like the past or that past changes will
continue in the same direction and rate is a perfectly sensible way to
begin trying to understand the future.
• It can not, however, be the end of our endeavors, or we would end up
with absurd results.
http://crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/futuristmethods.htm
Trends to Analyze in This Talk
• Solar Cells
– Market size
– Market share
– Sales
– Units
– Power produced
– Cost per power delivered
Agenda
• The Sun
• Solar Cells
– Background
– How they work
– Types
•
•
•
•
•
Markets
Costs
Countries
Companies
Questions
Now on with the show
Energy from the Sun
• About half the incoming solar energy reaches the Earth's surface.
• The Earth receives 174 petawatts (PW) (1015 watts) of incoming solar
radiation at the upper atmosphere. Approximately 30% is reflected back
to space while the rest is absorbed by clouds, oceans and land masses.
• Earth's land surface, oceans and atmosphere absorb solar radiation, and
this raises their temperature. Sunlight absorbed by the oceans and land
masses keeps the surface at an average temperature of 14 °C.
• By photosynthesis green plants convert solar energy into chemical
energy, which produces food, wood and the biomass from which fossil
fuels are derived.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy
Breakdown of incoming solar energy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Breakdown_of_the_incoming_solar_energy.svg
Energy from the Sun
Yearly Solar fluxes & Human Energy Consumption
• The total solar energy absorbed by Earth's atmosphere, oceans and land
masses is approximately 3,850,000 exajoules (EJ) (1018 joules) per year.
(70% of incoming sunlight)
(1 Joule = energy required to heat one gram of dry, cool air by 1˚ C)
• Primary energy use (2005) 487 EJ (0.0126%)
• Electricity (2005) 56.7 EJ (0.0015%) Therefore a good target
• 2002, more energy in one hour than the world used in the year.
• Photosynthesis captures approximately 3,000 EJ per year in biomass.
• The amount of solar energy reaching the surface of the planet is so vast
that in one year it is about twice as much as will ever be obtained from all
of the Earth's non-renewable resources of coal, oil, natural gas, and
mined uranium combined.
• As intermittent resources, solar and wind raise issues.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy
Solar Cells Background
• 1839 - French physicist A. E. Becquerel first recognized the
photovoltaic effect.
• Photo+voltaic = convert light to electricity
• 1883 - first solar cell built, by Charles Fritts, coated semiconductor
selenium with an extremely thin layer of gold to form the junctions.
• 1954 - Bell Laboratories, experimenting with semiconductors,
accidentally found that silicon doped with certain impurities was very
sensitive to light. Daryl Chapin, Calvin Fuller and Gerald Pearson,
invented the first practical device for converting sunlight into useful
electrical power. Resulted in the production of the first practical solar
cells with a sunlight energy conversion efficiency of around 6%.
• 1958 - First spacecraft to use solar panels was US satellite Vanguard 1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell
PV Solar for Electricity
Photovoltaics
• For the 2 billion people without access to electricity, it would be
cheaper to install solar panels than to extend the electrical grid.
(The Fund for Renewable Energy Everywhere)
• Providing power for villages in developing countries is a fast-growing
market for photovoltaics. The United Nations estimates that more than
2 million villages worldwide are without electric power for water supply,
refrigeration, lighting, and other basic needs, and the cost of extending
the utility grids is prohibitive, $23,000 to $46,000 per kilometer in 1988.
• A one kilowatt PV system* each month:
–
–
–
–
prevents 150 lbs. of coal from being mined
prevents 300 lbs. of CO2 from entering the atmosphere
keeps 105 gallons of water from being consumed
keeps NO and SO2 from being released into the environment
* in Colorado, or an equivalent system that produces 150 kWh per month
http://www.solarenergy.org/resources/energyfacts.html
How Solar Cells Work
1. Photons in sunlight hit the
solar panel and are absorbed
by semiconducting materials,
such as silicon.
2. Electrons (negatively charged)
are knocked loose from their
atoms, allowing them to flow
through the material to
produce electricity.
3. An array of solar cells
converts solar energy into a
usable amount of
direct current (DC) electricity.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Silicon_Solar_cell_structure_and_mechanism.svg
Solar Cells Background
Three generations of solar cells
• Solar Cells are classified into three generations which indicates the
order of which each became important.
• At present there is concurrent research into all three generations
while the first generation technologies are most highly represented in
commercial production, accounting for 89.6% of 2007 production.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell
Solar Cells Background
First Generation – Single Junction Silicon Cells
89.6% of 2007 Production
45.2% Single Crystal Si
42.2% Multi-crystal SI
Silicon Cell Average Efficiency
• Large-area, high quality and
single junction devices.
• High energy and labor inputs which
limit significant progress in reducing
production costs.
• Single junction silicon devices are
approaching theoretical limit efficiency
of 33%. Achieve cost parity with fossil fuel
energy generation after a payback period
of 5–7 years. (3.5 yr in Europe)
• Single crystal silicon - 16-19% efficiency
• Multi-crystal silicon - 14-15% efficiency
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell and www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sept 08
Solar Cells Background
Second Generation – Thin Film Cells
CdTe 4.7% & CIGS 0.5% of 2007 Production
•
New materials and processes to improve efficiency and reduce cost.
•
As manufacturing techniques evolve, production costs will be dominated by
constituent material requirements, whether this be a silicon substrate, or glass
cover. Thin film cells use about 1% of the expensive semiconductors compared
to First Generation cells.
•
The most successful second generation materials have been cadmium
telluride (CdTe), copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS), amorphous silicon
and micromorphous silicon.
•
Trend toward second gen., but commercialization has proven difficult.
– 2007 - First Solar produced 200 MW of CdTe solar cells, 5th largest producer in 2007
and the first to reach top 10 from of second generation technologies alone.
– 2007 - Wurth Solar commercialized its CIGS technology producing 15 MW.
– 2007 - Nanosolar commercialized its CIGS technology in 2007 with a production
.
capacity of 430 MW for 2008 in the USA and Germany.
– 2008 - Honda began to commercialize their CIGS base solar panel.
• CdTe – 8 – 11% efficiency (18% demonstrated)
• CIGS – 7-11% efficiency (20% demonstrated)
• Payback time < 1 year in Europe
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell and www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sept 08
Solar Cells Background
Third Generation – Multi-junction Cells
• Third generation technologies aim to enhance poor electrical performance
of second generation (thin-film technologies) while maintaining very low
production costs.
• Current research is targeting conversion efficiencies of 30-60% while
retaining low cost materials and manufacturing techniques. They can
exceed the theoretical solar conversion efficiency limit for a single energy
threshold material, 31% under 1 sun illumination and 40.8% under the
maximal artificial concentration of sunlight (46,200 suns).
• Approaches to achieving these high efficiencies including the use of
multijunction photovoltaic cells, concentration of the incident spectrum,
the use of thermal generation by UV light to enhance voltage or carrier
collection, or the use of the infrared spectrum for night-time operation.
• Typically use fresnel lens (3M) or other concentrators, but cannot use
diffuse sunlight and require sun tracking hardware
• Multi-junction cells – 30% efficiency (40-43% demonstrated)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cell and www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sept 08
Global Cumulative PV Power
http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publications/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2013.pdf
Global Annual PV Market
http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publications/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2013.pdf
Solar Cell Market Estimate
-- First Generation --
--
SEMI PV Group March 2009 from source Yole Development
Second Generation --
- Third Gen -
Global Annual PV Market Outlook
http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publications/epia/Global_Market_Outlook_Until_2013.pdf
Solar PV Market Outlook
Sales in Billions
Annual PV Market Outlook
$700
Rest of World
$600
South Asia
$500
China
$400
Central + South
America
North America
$300
$200
Europe
$100
$2007
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
by 2030 8.9% of Global Energy, 1,864 GW Production Capacity, 2,646 TWh Electricity
SEMI PV Group March 2009 from source EPIA Solar Generation V Sept 08 www.epia.org
Cost Projections
“Grid parity’ where PV cost
are equal to residential
electricity costs is
expected to be achieved
first in southern European
countries and then to
move north
$/kWh
$1.35
$1.07
$0.81
$0.54
$0.27
$0.13 ---
www.epia.org EPIA Solar Generation V Report Sept 08
Cumulative installed solar electric
power by 2007
•
•
•
•
1st Germany
2nd Japan
3rd US
4th Spain
3.8 GW
1.9 GW
814 MW
632 MW
World's largest photovoltaic (PV)
power plants (12 MW or larger)
Name of PV power plant
Country
DC
Peak
Power
(MW)
GW·h
/year
85
Notes
Olmedilla Photovoltaic Park
Spain
60
Puertollano Photovoltaic Park
Spain
50
Moura photovoltaic power station
Portugal
46
93
Completed December 2008
Waldpolenz Solar Park
Germany
40
40
550,000 First Solar thin-film CdTe
modules. Completed Dec 2008
Arnedo Solar Plant
Spain
34
Completed October 2008
Merida/Don Alvaro Solar Park
Spain
30
Completed September 2008
17 more
2 more
Spain
Korea
Avg 20
Avg 20
Koethen
Germany
14.75
13
200,000 First Solar thin-film CdTe
modules. Completed Dec 2008
Nellis Solar Power Plant
USA
14.02
30
70,000 solar panels
Planta Solar de Salamanca
6 more Spain, 1 US, 1 Germany
Spain
13.8
Avg 12
n.a.
70,000 Kyocera panels
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stations
Completed September 2008
2008
Large systems in planning or under
construction
Name of Plant
Country
DC
Peak
Power
(MW)
GW·h
/year
Notes
Rancho Cielo Solar Farm
USA
600
Topaz Solar Farm
USA
550
1,100
Thin film silicon from OptiSolar **
High Plains Ranch
USA
250
550
Monocrystaline silicon from SunPower with
tracking **
Mildura Solar concentrator power
station
Australia
154
270
Heliostat concentrator using GaAs cells from
Spectrolab**
KCRD Solar Farm
USA
80
Scheduled to be completed in 2012 **
DeSoto County, Florida
USA
25
To be constructed by SunPower for FPL Energy,
completion date 2009.*
Davidson County solar farm
USA
21.5
36 individual structures**
Cádiz solar power plant
Spain
20.1
Kennedy Space Center, Florida
USA
10
* Under construction; ** Proposed
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_power_stations
Thin film silicon from Signet Solar**
36
*
To be constructed by SunPower for FPL Energy,
completion date 2010.**
Spain
• Blessed with almost year-round sunshine, Spain's socialist
government is trying to capitalize on this natural resource.
• In an effort to encourage private individuals and companies to install
solar power, Spain introduced subsidies of €0.42 per kilowatt per
hour ($0.57/KWhr) (‘feed-in’ tariff and off-grid subsidies)
• But the Spanish government is considering reducing this subsidy in
September, a move which is likely to face opposition from within the
solar energy industry.
• 2007: 26,800 employees in Spanish solar companies
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jul/09/solarpower.renewableenergy 9 July 2008
www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008
Olmedilla Solar Park
60 MWp photovoltaic park installed by Nobesol with modules from Silikin
http://www.siliken.com/clientes_proyectos/instalaciones/ficha?contentId=572
Germany
• 10,000 companies, including installers work in solar PV
• 80 companies are cell and module makers
• 42,000 employees
• Sales were $5.7 B including $2.5 B in exports
The ‘feed-in’ tariff
• 2008 German utilities pay $0.47 to $0.68/kWh depending on type
and size of system for new solar systems
• Utilities pass cost to consumers – Germany average is $1.65/month
www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008
Waldpolenz Solar Park
• The Waldpolenz Solar Park is built on a surface area equivalent to 200
soccer fields, the solar park will be capable of feeding 40 megawatts into
the power grid when fully operational in 2009.
• In the start-up phase, the 130-million-euro ($201 million) plant it will have a
capacity of 24 megawatts, according to the Juwi group, which operates the
installation.
• The facility, located east of Leipzig, uses state-of-the-art, thin-film
technology. Some 550,000 thin-film modules will be used, of which
350,000 have already been installed. The direct current produced in the
PV solar modules will be converted into alternating current and fed
completely into the power grid.
• After just a year the solar power station will have produced the energy
needed to build it, according to the Juwi group.
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3430319,00.html
Waldpolenz Solar Park
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,3430319,00.html
Waldpolenz Solar Park
http://lumbergusa.com/main/Bild/sp_pv_07/Brandis-Waldpolenz-Fotomont.jpg
United States
• 2007 - PV production grew in all areas of US market
• US leads development of thin-film technology accounting for nearly
half the global production
• 2007 – about 50,000 employees
• CA dominates with 60% of installed capacity
• Various state Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and Federal
Investment Tax Credits (ITC) are incentives.
• Solar America Initiative making progress on goal to bring PV costs
to grid parity by 2015
www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008
Renewable Energy Consumption
in the US Energy Supply, 2007
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/highlight1.html
Chart Data
Figure 1.1 The Role of Renewable Energy Consumption in the Nation's
Energy Supply, 2007 (Quadrillion Btu)
Consumption
Total US
Share
101.545
Coal
22.776
22%
Natural Gas
23.637
23%
Petroleum
39.773
39%
Nuclear Electric Power
8.415
8%
Renewable Energy:
6.813
7%
Hydroelectric
2.446
36%
Geothermal Energy
0.349
5%
Biomass
3.596
53%
Solar Energy
0.081
1%
Wind Energy
0.341
5%
Of which:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/figure1_1.xls
US Solar Industry Data
Solar energy represents less than 1% of the U.S. energy mix. However, as a result of
growing awareness about reliable, off-the-shelf technology, concerns about rising costs,
energy security and supplies, and new state and federal incentives, deployment of solar
energy has exploded since 2005.
•
Size of U.S. Market
2008 - U.S. had about 8,800 megawatts (MW) of installed solar capacity.
1,100 MW of photovoltaics (PV),
418 MW of utility-scale concentrating solar power,
485 MWTh (megawatts thermal equivalent) of solar water heating systems
7,000 MWTh of solar pool heating systems.
•
Ranking of U.S. Market: Cumulative installed solar electric power by 2007.
1st Germany 3.8 GW, 2nd Japan 1.9 GW, 3rd US 814 MW, 4th Spain 632 MW
•
Growth of U.S. Market 2008 - more than 18,000 individual PV systems were
installed. Totaled 342 MW: 292 MW was grid-connected.
•
Growth of U.S. Manufacturing 2008 domestic PV cell manufacturing capacity
grew 65 percent to 685 MW and production grew 53 percent to 414 MW. (Results
preliminary) (Source: Greentech Media Research and the Prometheus Institute)
www.seia.org/cs/about_solar_energy/industry_data and www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008
Nellis AFB Solar panels
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Nellis_AFB_Solar_panels.jpg
GM installs world's biggest
rooftop solar panels
• The largest rooftop solar power station in the world is being built in Spain.
With a capacity of 12 MW of power, the station is made up of 85,000
lightweight panels covering an area of two million SqFt.
• Manufactured in rolls, rather like carpet, the photovoltaic panels are to be
installed on the roof of a General Motors car factory in Zaragoza, Spain.
• General Motors, which plans to install solar panels at another 11 plants
across Europe, unveiled the €50M ($68M) project yesterday. The power
station should be producing energy by September.
• The panels will produce an expected annual output of 15.1 million kilowatt
hours (kWh) - enough to meet the needs of 4,600 households with an
average consumption of 3,300kWh, or power a third of the GM factory. The
solar energy produced should cut CO2 emissions by 6,700 tons a year.
• Energy Conversion Devices who makes the panels, said it would be the
largest rooftop solar array in the world.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jul/09/solarpower.renewableenergy 9 July 2008
GM installs world's biggest
rooftop solar panels
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jul/09/solarpower.renewableenergy 9 July 2008
Japan
• 2002 - Basic Act on Energy Policy to secure stable energy supply,
environmental suitability and use of market mechanisms
• By 2006, installed 1.2 GW for 350,000 homes
• 2008 – New research initiative to improve yields from 10-15% to
40% and reduce cost from $0.48/kWh to $0.073/kWh
www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008
China
• 2007
• National Renewable Energy targets
– 10% by 2010 (300 MW)
– 15% by 2020 (1.8 GW)
•
•
•
•
Supplies 1,130 tons of polysilicon from 6 companies
Supplies 21,400 tons of silicon ingot from 70 companies
Number 1 PV panel producer – 1.1 GW
50 PV panel companies including Suntech, Yingli, Hebei
Jingao, Jiansu Linyang, and Nangjing CEEG
• 82,800 employees (6 times that of 2005)
www.epia.org Solar Generation V Report Sep 2008
Top 10 PV Cell Producers
Until recently BP Solar was
dominant supplier.
New Top 10 produce
53% of world total
Q-Cells, SolarWorld - Germany
Sharp, Kyocera, Sharp, Sanyo –
Japan
Suntech, Yingli, JA Solar – China
Motech - Taiwan
BP Solar
•
BP Solar to supply PV power systems for Wal-Mart in CA 22 April 2009
•
Under a power purchase agreement (PPA), BP will finance, install and maintain
the systems and Wal-Mart will have immediate access to clean electricity with no
up front capital cost to the retailer.
•
Will initially build 10 to 20 rooftop systems at Wal-Mart locations in California, and
would work with the retailer to evaluate the potential for additional projects.
Expects to complete the first set, 10 MW of installed solar power, within about 18
months.
•
2008 BP completed 4.1 MW solar systems for 7 Wal-Marts & Sam’s Clubs in CA.
•
Since 1998, BP guarantees its modules for 25 years.
•
BP Solar, part of BP Alternative Energy, is a global company with about 2000
employees. With over 35 years of experience and installations in most countries,
BP Solar is one of the world's leading solar companies.
•
BP is one of the world’s largest energy companies, in more than 100 countries
and over 96,000 employees.
http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9025044&contentId=7046577
BP axes 620 jobs from solar business
• 01 April, 2009 - BP to axe 620 jobs from its solar power business
– more than a quarter of that workforce – in a move it said was
part of the long-term strategy to "reduce the cost of solar power to
that of conventional electricity.“
• Two cell manufacture and module assembly plants near Madrid, will
be shut with the loss of 480 posts while module assembly will also
be phased out at its Frederick facility in Maryland, US, with a further
140 redundancies.
• BP blamed the cutbacks on the credit crunch and lower-cost
competition saying its global manufacturing capacity would still
increase during this year and next via a series of strategic alliances
with other companies.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/01/bp-solar
Q Cells SE
• 1999 founded, 2001 began with the production of silicon solar cells
with 19 employees.
• By 2009, 2,600 employees (2007, 1700 employees)
• Now the largest solar cell manufacturer in the world. (since 2007)
• Continue to expand production in Bitterfeld-Wolfen, Germany and
start construction of new Malaysian production facility.
• Alongside the monocrystalline and polycrystalline (90% of business)
core business, we use a wide range of technologies to develop and
produce thin-film modules. (thin-film - 25% share of smaller market)
• 2008 Sales $1.69 B
2007 Sales $1.16 B profitable
• QCE: Frankfurt exchange
http://www.q-cells.com/en and http://www.google.com/finance?q=FRA%3AQCE
Sharp Solar
• Subsidiary of Sharp Electronics, Osaka, Japan
• Produces silicon solar cells and thin film, leveraging silicon knowledge
from LCD manufacturing
• 2008, capacity will reach 1.6 million square meters of thin-film modules,
as we simultaneously build the world's largest thin film manufacturing
complex, capable of 10 million square meters per year. And this
gigawatt-scale factory is only the first to come. Katsuga City, Nara and
Sakai City, Osaka, Japan
• Thin film efficiency 9%, expecting 10% from GW factory line.
• Sharp powers more homes and businesses than any other solar mfg in
the world. First mfgr to reach 2 GW cumulative production since mass
production start in 1963
• Memphis, TN – 100 MW manufacturing facility
http://solar.sharpusa.com/solar/solar_thin_film/1,,3-6,00.html and http://www.sharpusa.com/files/sol_dow_ThinFilm_101408.pdf
SunTech Power
• BEIJING, Jan 12, 2009 (Xinhua via COMTEX)
• China’s solar product maker SunTech Power Holdings Co., Ltd.
(STP.NYSE) recently laid off 800 workers or 10 percent of its total
employees and postponed its previous plan on recruiting 2,000 people,
said Shi Zhengrong, chairman and CEO.
• SunTech delayed plan to expand production capacity to 1.5 GW in 2009,
which requires 2,000 more employees.
• Plants in Wuxi and other areas are in normal operation with more than
50% capacity running, compared with 85% prior to financial meltdown.
• SunTech has received more than 800 MW of orders in 2009 including
650 MW from Europe. 2008 overall orders of 500 MW.
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/2119252/
SunTech Power
•
•
•
•
•
•
Sales $1.9B 2008, 1.3B 2007 profitable
Employees: 6784
STP:NYSE
Wuxi, China
Worlds largest silicon cell maker
Average conversion efficiency rates of their monocrystalline and
multicrystalline silicon PV cells 16.4% and 14.9% respectively
• 10 May 2009 announces plan to build manufacturing plant in US, now
shopping states for incentives
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:STP
Kyocera Solar
• US Solar Division – Scottsdale, AZ
• Subsidiary of Kyocera, Kyoto, Japan (KYO:NYSE) $13B 2008
• 2008 broke ground for new plant in Tianjin City, China to expand
there from 60 MW to 240 MW by 2011. First one in China ‘03
• 2012 total production capacity to be 650 MW from Japan, Mexico,
the Czech Republic and Tianjin.
• Technology built on knowledge of fine ceramics, with metals,
plastics, and electronics developed for copiers and printers
http://www.kyocerasolar.com/about/
First Solar
• TEMPE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 24, 2009-- First Solar, Inc.
(Nasdaq: FSLR) today announced it reduced its manufacturing cost for
solar modules in the fourth quarter to 98 cents per watt, breaking the $1
per watt price barrier.
• 2004 Began full commercial operation. Manufacturing capacity has
grown to more than 500 MW in 2008 and will double in 2009 to more
than 1 GW, the equivalent of an average-sized nuclear power plant.
• Escalating volumes accompanied by a rapid reduction in manufacturing
costs. Manufacturing costs have declined from over $3 per watt to less
than $1 per watt. Further significant cost reductions are possible.
• First Solar has industry’s first and only comprehensive pre-funded, endof-life module collection and recycling program, recycling more than
90% of each collected module into new products. (A serious issue due
to Cadmium-Telluride)
• High throughput, automated lines that integrate each production step,
from CdTe semiconductor deposition to final assembly and test, in one
continuous process. This advanced manufacturing process transforms a
piece of glass into a complete solar module in less than 2.5 hours.
www.firstsolar.com/
First Solar
•
•
•
•
Sales $1.2B 2008, $504M 2007, profitable
Employees: 3524
Tempe, AZ
FSLR:NASDAQ
finance.google.com
Motech Industries
• Modern Technology for a Sustainable World
• Founded 1981, Motech Solar started 1997
• 2003 Publicly trades 6244: Taiwan Exchange
• 2008 8th largest manufacturer 272 MW crystalline and multi-crystal
silicon solar cells
• Plants in Tianan,Taiwan and Kunshan, China
• 2008 Sales $691M, profitable
• 1,331 employees
www.motech.com.tw
Shell dumps wind, solar and hydro
power in favor of biofuels
• Shell will no longer invest in renewable technologies such as wind,
solar and hydro power because they are not economic, the AngloDutch oil company said today. 17 Mar 09
• Sold US operations to SolarWorld - Germany
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/mar/17/royaldutchshell-energy
SolarWorld AG
• SWV: Frankfurt exchange
• 1,825 employees
• Bonn, Germany with production in Freiborg and Sweden
• 2006 acquired assets from Shell Solar which had been largest US solar
products maker (fka Arco Solar and Siemens Solar)
– Camarillo, CA and Vancouver, WA
• 2007 acquired Komatsu silicon wafer production facility Hillsboro, OR
• Single and multi-crystalline silicon cells
http://www.google.com/finance?q=FRA:SWV
Sun Power
• Founded 1985, purchased by Cypress Semiconductor in 2004, spun
out in 2008. SPWRA and SPWRB NASDAQ
• HQs in San Jose and Geneva, Switzerland
• 12 polysilicon solar cell line in Philippines with capacity 314 MW/yr
• Expansion plan for 1 GW capacity by 2010
• High efficiency cells: 21-23%
– PG&E plans 250 MW facility in CA by 2012
– FPL DeSoto Cty 35 MW facility due to open 2009
– Nellis 14 MW facility on line
• Sales: $1.4B for 2008, $775M for 2007 profitable
• Employees: 5,400
http://us.sunpowercorp.com/utility/
SunPower Solar Cell
http://us.sunpowercorp.com/utility/why-sunpower/best-technology/
Energy Conversion Devices /
United Solar Ovonics
• ENER:NASDAQ
• Rochester Hills, MI
• Amorphous silicon thin film process
on stainless steel
• Over 20 years, manufacturing
capacity increased from 500 KW to
25 MW/yr
• Now 3 miles/day
• Sales $255M for 2008, $114M for
2007, slight profit 2008
• Employees: 1090
http://www.uni-solar.com
Ovonics Roll-roll Process
http://www.uni-solar.com/uploadedFiles/Uni-SolarTechnologyandManufacturingProcessAppendix.pdf
Silikin
• Since 2001, SILIKEN has obtained a significant share on the Spanish
PV market and has installed more than 160 MW of solar PV energy,
= 240 GWh, the electricity consumption of more than 63,595 homes.
• Number of employees: Currently 700 people.
Valencia, Tenerife and Albacete, Spain and San Diego, CA
• Sales: €152 million ($207 million) in 2007.
• Peak power manufactured: has become one of the main
manufacturers of PV modules, supplying 92 MW to the market in ‘08.
http://www.siliken.com/quienes/historia?languageId=1
Some Questions
• Will ‘peak minerals’ (rising cost due to limits in availability) limit
growth of thin film and third generation solar cells?
• Will demand growth in China and India limit growth in US?
• How about the impact of other national / regional subsidies?
• How will financial meltdown impact solar cell business?
• What competing technologies would upset the solar industry?
• How will cost and efficiency of 2nd and 3rd generation solar cells
impact the businesses built on 1st generation technology?
