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WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

GOLDMAR KETS

14-A r-09 p

Busy week in term of macro data with some heavy earnings releases. Intel & J&J earnings, PPI & Retail Sales today, CPI, NAHB housing index and Industrial Production tomorrow, Housing starts, Nokia, Google & JP data on Thursday, GE & Citi on Friday will be t focus and should provide us with fresh clues that should keep on showing that the latest bear market rally might just be the beginning long bull trend. The activity data will show conditions are not as bad as they were a few months ago and will simply show it is no longe freefall as it was at the end of last year. The policy stimulus is indeed substantial : official interest rates have been cut to near-zero in the major economies, central banks a creating money to purchase assets under the policy of \u201cquantitative easing\u201d, large financial rescue programmes are in pl significant increase in resources for the IMF, and fiscal policy has been loosened across the board. Given all this, it would be astonishi if there were no green shoots of recovery to be seen anywhere. What\u2019s more, the collapse in economic activity towards the end year was so severe that it might at least mean that the economic bottom is reached sooner rather than later. The slump in world trade prime example. The global recession means that trade can be expected to contract by around 10% this year, but trade has already fall by as much as 40% on some measures, and hardly can fall lower with the huge stimulus in place. The sharp narrowing in the US trade deficit, from $36.0bn in January to a 9-year low of $26.0bn in February was a positiv contribution from net trade will limit the size of the fall in Q1 GDP. The narrowing was not due to any energy effects, as the e petroleum deficit declined from $21.4bn to $12.3bn. Instead, it was driven by a 1.6% m/m rise in exports and a 5.1% slump in imports. The rise in exports is the first since July and could be an early indication that the collapse in global demand and restrictions on the availability of trade credit are easing. Earnings so far certainly not showed a Great Depression scenario. From the raw material sectors with Alcoa missing eps by 2 cts bu saying they are plenty of cash and ready to go through tough time if necessary, to the techs with Juniper saying they cut costs in order meet eps guidance, and the financials with Wells Fargo saying its eps should be more than twice than expected for the previous quart which Goldman showed last night through its premature earnings, will make Chevron lower trading update not only expected but too much oil prices related. Investors will even more confront readings on economy as well as earnings, and judge on their own whether i was worth screaming the 29 crisis scenario. The stress tests from the US government on the banks will be over by the end of April, already the Irish government is saying ther should not be anything worse inside Irish banks balance sheets, and we may attend as soon as in May some refund from banks to the authorities so they can monitor their payment policy on their own, such as Goldman already said last night in raising $5 bn cash to rep the $10bn TARP. They will obviously take a lesson from the past, and will be more vigilant on the way to attribute bonuses and avoid punters. The banks are back on track ready to lend, especially with the cheap financings provided by the governments providing them profitable margins. Back to business. With the banks working properly, the current yield conditions are a boost to the economic activi Last week consolidation was welcome, but so short that it was telling you that hedge funds deleverage selling flows are mostl over, and that fund managers are short in the way that they are highly cash invested and will need to jump in. The rise will feed more r as bear bank strategists (JP, MSDW etc\u2026) will need to switch their view from the bear market rally concept, driving buying flows bringing more confidence to households and investors, increasing the wealth at a time when purchasing power is being boosted by lo energy and yields levels. Well-done to the Fed, Chinese and UK officials. Too early to say about Europe and Japan, although they will b boosted by the worldwide trade improvement. But for sure, their strong currency is a problem in that kind of period. Goldman could not wait much longer to release its golden earnings, the $5bn capital increase and the already played data throug Wells Fargo on Friday is explaining the 1% drop after the official session (rose from 72 to 130 in one month). The friendly PPI and Reta Sales figures today should push the rise further though with probably fundamental investors rushing to step in. Holidays period a bit everywhere in Europe might be seen through a lighter than usual volume. Intel tonight will set the tone for the tech sector WTI

Last

\u20ac/$ $ / \ u 010 0 ayr5 US

10 yr Euro

49,37 1,3349 99,796 2,8653 3,252 Perf 1d % 1,96459 -0,1441 0,3031 0,74 bp3,8 bp

Basic

Energy Financ Health

2,33

-0,41

10,9

0,84

Tech

0,34

Tel

-0,64

Indus Utilities SOX

0,85

-0,29

-0,4

S&P

1,64

NAS

1,2

DOW

From

0,79 Europe

ECONOMIC DATA with impact

PPI (12h30 gmt) expected flat from previous 0.1% / ex food & energy 0.1% from 0.2% / for some paradoxal reasons the higher the better, to confirm that deflation is far from granted / interesting Retail Sales (12h30 gmt) expected 0.3% from previous \u20130.1% // ex autos 0.1% from 0.7% / interesting to see whether the spend back thanks to lower energy and mortgage prices, in addition to an increasing wealth effect Business Inventories (14h gmt) expected \u20130.9% from \u20131.1% / story behind the data is hard to read / this is the too sharp dr inventories which explains the latest sharp economic fall, but the pick up in demand will require a rebuilt which should make th possibly prompt , and boost the manufacturing sector as well as the employment one / minor though today Chicago Fed President Evans speaking on risk management for banks (14h30 gmt) Minneapolis Fed President Stern speaking on \u201cPerspectives on Risk\u201d (20h45 gmt) Intel earnings (after market close)

POSITIVE IMPACTS

BNP : The Brussels Court of Appeal ruled that all Fortis shareholders can vote on BNP\u2019s planned purchase of 75% of For BARCLAYS would be ready to sell its whole unit Barclays Global Investors (Sunday Telegraph) HSBC is looking to sell 3 of its most prestigious and biggest office buildings for \u00a32.7 bn (the Times) SANTANDER : Banif Inmobiliario, Spain's largest real-estate fund by assets and owned by Santander wants to speed up the ass process, which is expected to fetch more than \u20ac3 bn (Expansion) PIRELLI sees the European tyres market to fall down 10% this year / Camfin, a holding company with a major stake in Pirelli, is lookin raise at least \u20ac100 m through a capital increase to re-launch the company (il Messagero) GENERALI may consider buying some of Pirelli Real Estate property assets ahead of Pirelli RE's capital hike of 400m (La Repubblica GDF-SZE remains "confident" that it won't lose money due to state-regulated natural gas tariffs in 2009 + said sales of the fuel to Eur industrial users will fall 10% this year / Separately, its capacity to generate nuclear power may increase by 2020 to 3 and 4 EPR TOTAL increased its offer to acquire all of the outstanding common shrs of UTS to C$1.75 a share from C$1.30 per share HAVAS : Vincent Bollore said he was "reassured" by the presence of a new team runnning Aegis, in which he has a 29.9% stake WPP : Global advertising spending is set to drop 7% in 2009 but stage a modest rebound next year (UK newspaper) AIR FRANCE : KLM is in talks with Kingfisher Airlines and Jet Airways (India) to serve secondary markets in India (the Econom CREDIT AGRICOLE is taking Caisse d\u2019Epargne to court for preventing transfer of Livret A savings accounts to other ban FAURECIA has renegotiated covenants on loans from banks & Peugeot & plans a capital increase of \u20ac450m. L\u2019OREAL : NESTLE will get the right to bid for Ms. Bettencourt\u2019s 30.2% stake in L\u2019Oreal after an agreement company expire in 2 weeks

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WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

GOLDMAR KETS

14-A r-09 p

FIAT is seeking money from the Fed through its US unit CNH Capital + CNH capital expects to borrow $5.2 bn from the Federal Reserve's TALF program / The money could be used to help Fiat and Chrysler finalize an alliance (Detroit press) BMW is considering closer cooperation with Daimler (Sueddeutsche Zeitung) GERMAN BANKS : German Finance Minister has drawn up a \u20ac200-bn "bad bank" plan allowing German banks to remove toxic a from their balance sheets (Der Spiegel)

GOLDMAN SACHS : Q1 rev. $9.43 bn ($7.09 bn e) / EPS $3.39 (1.60 e) / ROE 14.3% / Tier 1 Ratio 16%, up from 15.6% as of Nov 28, 2008 / Cut quarterly div. to $0.35 from 0.47 / Announced a $5 bn equity offering (as exp.) in an effort to pay back the TARP funds TOYOTA\u2019s operating loss for the current fiscal year could be over Y500bn (The Nikkei) (quite in line with Reuters consensus)

NEGATIVE IMPACTS

PHILIPS : Q1 Sales \u20ac5.07bn (5.16bn e) / EBITDA \u20ac loss 74m (35m e) / Ups cots saving tgt to \u20ac500m (400m prev

court jury awarded Alcatel $358 m in damages from Microsoft MARKS & SPENCER lost 12 bp of market share in Feb. in the clothing sector, bringing its mket share to 10.66% from 10.78% (

US BANKING SECTOR : The New Frontier Bank of Greeley (Colorado) ($2bn assets under management) became the 23 US bank to be closed for bankrupcy this year / An other regional bank, the Cape Fear Bank of Wilmington (North Caroline) filed for bankrup OIL NAMES : CHEVRON (already played in yesterday\u2019s US session losing 1.8%) said Q1 eps would be much lower sequentially of lower oil & natural gas prices. Earnings in the refining & marketing operations lower & refined products sales margins \u20 oil prices down 22% since Q4 and 55% from a year earlier + crude prices fell 4% after the IEA lowered their 2009 global deman rd

RESULTS

Today Wednesday Thursday Friday Monday

DIVIDENDS EVENTS BBVA (Bonus 1 for 62) / Banco Popular (\u20ac0.08) / Intel (AMC) / Johnson & Johnson Belgacom (\u20ac1.68) / TNT (\u20ac1,025) Klepierre (\u20ac1.25) / Julius Baer (CHF 0.50) / ASML / Syngenta trading statement / LVMH UBS AGM / Rio Tinto AGM / Anglo American AGM / sales / Abbott Ciment Fran\u00e7ais AGM Danone sales / Nokia / OMV / Google (AMC) Groupe / Bruxelles Lambert (\u20ac2.30) / Lonza ( CHF JP Morgan (BMO) / Coca Cola Co / Pfizer 1.75) Citigroup (BMO) / General Electric (BMO) / Sanofi AGM / Corio AGM Honeywell / Merrill Lynch / Sony Ericsson Groupe Bruxelles Lambert / Alfa Laval / Soitec / Telecom Italia (\u20ac0.05) Rio Tinto AGM

TRADING IDEAS

Target short term 2358 cash eurostoxx // Nasdaq downside gap left on 1616/1595 cash index (Intel tonight) BUY OIL names as TOTAL (dble bottom) / ENI / BP / ROYAL DUTCH to play the economic recovery BUY L OREAL / BNP / AXA / AEGON / SIEMENS / DANONE / which just closed their gap ready to resume their upside move

BUY CAP / SELL SAP // BUY BAYER / SELL BASF // SANTANDER / SELL DBK // BUY BMW / SELL RENAULT // BUY PFIZER / SELL BRISTOL // BUY TOTAL / SELL ENI // BUY AHOLD / SELL METRO // BUY AEGON / SELL ALLIANZ

BROKER METEOROLOGY

RUSSIAN STOCKS ............... RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT FROM NEUTRAL ......................................................................... BY HSBC LUKOIL ..................................CUT TO NEUTRAL FROM BUY ........................................................................ BY BANK OF AMERICA

PLEASE FIND BELOW ON THE NEXT PAGE OUR MORNING ECO

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WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

GOLDMAR KETS

14-A r-09 p

CHART OF THE DAY China trade balance (MoM) Since 2000 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 2000

2001

200 2

2003

2004

20 05

2006

2007

2 008

Source :

2009

Customs General Administration

China\u2019s trade surplus rose from $4.84 billion in February to $ 18.56 billion in March despite the drop of exportation a declined.

Tm i e

Country

ECONOMIC DATA

Indicator

Pero id

GE forecass t

Consensus

Previous

74 . 5 GMT Fa r nce Current account Febu r ary - \u20ac 28 , bli i l on 133 . 0 GMT Unt i edSae t t s Po r ducerpi r ce index March -0,1%, 20 , % YoY 00 , %, 20 , % YoY 01 , %, 13 , %YoY 133 . 0 GMT UnitedSae t t s Po r ducerpi r ce index (ex foodand eneg r y) March 01 , %+ , 40 , %YoY 01 , %+ , 40 , %02 Y,oY%+ , 40 , %YoY 133 . 0 GMT Unt i edSae t t s Advanced retali sales March 05 , % 03 , % -0,1% 133 . 0 GMT Unt i edSae t t s Advancedretali sales lessauto March 01 , % 07 , % 150 . 0 GMT Unt i edSae t t s Busn i ess invenoi t r es Febu r ary -1,1% -1,1% 220 . 0 GMT Unt i edSae t t s ABC consumerconi f dence 12 Aprli -50

Indexes DJIA

Price

% 5 Days

Ytd

Forex

Price

% 5 Days

Ytd

8057,8

0,59%

-8,19%

EUR/USD

1,3345

0,57%

-4,47%

S&P 500

858,7

2,01%

-4,93%

EUR/JPY

133,14

0,10%

4,84%

Nasdaq

1653,3

1,96%

4,84%

USD/JPY

9,14%

2974,2

-0,57%

-7,58%

Price

0,65%

CA C 40

Oil

99,76

DA X

4491,1

2,49%

-6,63%

Brent $/b

51,5

-4,65%

23,28%

% 5 Days

Ytd

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WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

GOLDMAR KETS

14-A r-09 p

ECONOMIC DATA PREVIEW

Watch in the United-States the producer prices for March due at 13.30 GMT. Producer prices led up by the rise of energy pr

ECONOMY

CHINA : TRADE SURPLUS INCREASED IN MARCH China trade surplus rose from $4.84 billion in February to $ 18.56 billion in March . This rise happened despite the fact that China’s

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WWW.GLOBAL-EQUITIES.COM / DEL SARTE / + 33 (0) 1 44 43 33 24

GOLDMAR KETS

14-A r-09 p

VX I index : impi l ed voa l tl i ityonthe S&P 500 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 160 / 42 / 007

6

$Lb i or-3-Mnh o t (neb I t r ankRae t)

55 , 5 45 , 4 35 , 3 25 , 2 15 , 161 / 02 / 007

160 / 42 / 008

1

161 / 02 / 008

160 / 42 / 007

161 / 02 / 007

160 / 42 / 008

Source : Bloomberg

55 , 52 ,5 5 47 ,5 45 , 42 ,5 4 37 ,5 35 , 32 ,5 3 27 ,5 25 , 22 ,5 2

160 / 42 / 007

Unt i ed States :10y - earTe r asury yed il

Source : Bloomberg

12 ,

140 130 120

08 , 06 , 04 , 02 , 0 -02 , -0,4 -0,6 -0,8 161 / 02 / 007

160 / 42 / 008

161 / 02 / 008

-1 160 / 42 / 007

Ol i : Brent ($b /)

16 ,5 16 , 15 ,5 15 ,

100

14 ,5

80

14 ,

70

13 ,5

60

13 ,

50

161 / 02 / 007

160 / 42 / 008

161 / 02 / 008 Source : Bloomberg

110 90

10y - ear Te r asury spreadUSA-Eurozone

1

Source : Bloomberg

150

161 / 02 / 008

Forex : EurovsDol l ar (EURU / SD)

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