Risk Associated With Population

We live in a society in which many of the problems of the
past have been eradicated through advancements in
infrastructure and technology, a modern age. However, as
those old obstacles are left behind, new ones arise before
us, both miniscule and monumental. Issues such as
obesity, global warming and cancer, rear their ugly heads
like the hydra of yore. Indeed, it is true that these threats
and their like are the most evident, and should be dealt
with accordingly, but we should not ignore those that have
not so pervasively breached our daily forums, because, like
a slow poison, if not dealt with or detected, the death of
society may come more swiftly than anticipated.
 Introduction to Overpopulation (4-5)

 Perspectives on the Risk (6-9)

 Risk Communications (10)

 Risk Regulation (11-12)

 Obstacles to Effective Governance (13)

 Risk Analysis – A Psychological Standpoint (14-16)

 Conclusion (17)
Overpopulation is “the condition of having a population so
dense as to cause environmental deterioration, an impaired
quality of life, or a population crash.”
(Merriam-Webster Dictionary, n.d.)
The consideration of overpopulation as a relevant risk may
not be as evident as the risk giants of today, but its
significance should not be ignored. Indeed, much unlike
the miniscule chance of being hit by a meteor,
overpopulation is an ancient issue that can gradually
impact us in ways much like a meteor impact would;
therefore, the proposition of engaging in risk management
and assessment regarding overpopulation is prudent in the
face of our ever lengthening life spans.
(Gardner, 2009)
 Only recently has technology been able to truly cause a significant extension in
the lifespan of humans, creating an environment in which we no longer die off
as fast as we had used to.
(Gardner, 2009)
 Although the population growth rate has declined in recent years, this is only
reflective of the population growth plateau that most developed countries face.
(National Geographic, 2011)
 In 1960, 70% of the world’s people lived in developing countries, Today the
figure is 80%, and these countries account for 95% of population growth.
(United Nations, 2003)
 In many parts of the world, population growth outpaces economic growth,
leading to a severe dearth of resources for the people in developing countries.
(United Nations, 2011)
 People in many developed countries do not come in contact with the
issues that come with overpopulation because their economic growth
rate outpaces that of its population growth rate.
(WOA, 2014)
 In other countries (many in Africa) where economic growth is not on
par with population growth and where there does not exist the
powerful infrastructure that can limit child mortality rates or other
similar risks the effects of overpopulation are profound.
 In Africa, having more children and wives are symbols of increased
status for men so that even if they do not have the resources to support
their own children sufficiently, they are incentivized to continue to
procreate.
(Tembo, n.d.)
 The one-child policy in China has increased female infant mortality
rates from 38 to 67 per thousand until reforms by the Chinese
government provided some leniency to parents with first-born
daughters.
(WOA, 2014)



 Population growth is often measured as a population growth rate, that is, a
percentile growth rate of a given region’s population over a period of time.
 The population growth rate, even when declining, as long as it is positive, may
in fact be showing a linear increase in population for a region as a lower percent
increase of a larger population can be numerically equivalent to a higher
percent increase of a smaller population. Indeed, although the world
population growth rate has declined from 2.04% to 1.33% from 1960 to 1999,
the overall integer growth of population is still higher than before.
(United Nations, 2011)
 The population growth rate in developing countries is dramatically higher than
in developed countries; for example, Lebanon’s population is estimated to
increase 9.73% annually while the population of Japan decreases 0.13% every
year.
(CIA World Factbook, 2014)

 Many nations today are still struggling to develop and provide better
conditions for its citizens. However, it is these developing nations that embody
the majority of the overpopulation issue. A rapidly increasing population in
these countries will make it more and more difficult for those nations to
provide for the growing population as it will then cost more to provide for
them, which in turn will slow down or even halt economic growth, leading to a
vicious cycle of death and decay.
(United Nations, 2011)
 Increased population density as a result of overpopulation can result in the
rampant spread of disease. A special case of this is in Africa, where rampant,
unregulated reproduction has led to an epidemic of AIDS and HIV.
(United Nations, 2011)
 Apart from the human impact of overpopulation, it is also important to
consider the environmental impact of overpopulation. In order to support a
larger volume of people, it follows that more land is required to maintain a
habitable environment for the human population. This leads to the destruction
of forests and rainforests, and in turn, the ecosystems of many species are
disturbed or even destroyed. The production of organic waste from humans
can also be a source of more environmental pollutants.
(Nasif, 2003)

Although economic growth currently outpaces population growth
in many developed countries, this cannot be expected to last.
The main causes of imminent overpopulation are the increased
life spans that we have enabled ourselves to have as well as the
unregulated mating between people found in many developing
nations. The Earth does not have an unlimited amount of natural
resources that can support an unlimited amount of people. As
people become more and more available and natural resources
become more scarce, the balance of trade and labor will be
turned askew, leaving many in poverty and without employment.
A prominent example of this is in India, where millions of people
live on the streets, impoverished and famished due to the effects
of overpopulation. Indeed, this is not only a economic concern,
but an ethical one as well.
(United Nations, 2011), (WOA, 2013)

 Regarding the topic of risk communications in the context of
overpopulation, there has not been much, of course, this is to be
expected as the topic of overpopulation is not quite as exciting as many
other sensationalized issues. The media markets fear, and people buy
it; there is no profit to be made in advertising what could be
interpreted as alarmist or irrelevant. Indeed, politics can sometimes
hamper the effective communication of risk, forcing only the
discussion issues that will advance political agendas.
(Gardner, 2009)
 The United Nations and various other governments discuss the issues
of population growth and potential overpopulation at length every
year, but no significant action has been taken as of yet to communicate
this issue to the populace.
(United Nations, 2011)
 Perhaps the most notable of any global risk communication for
overpopulation is what the Chinese promote. The one-child policy
seeks to limit overpopulation through restrictions on reproduction.
(Kaneda, 2006)
 The primary parties that are seen as responsible for managing the risk
of overpopulation are the national governments. However, we are all
stakeholders in the future of the world and thus, we are also, in part,
responsible for managing this risk.
 Although there have not been many incidences of regulation regarding
overpopulation, one famous example is China’s one-child policy.
 The responsibility of governance can be distributed to the population
as well. Indeed, because we are all stakeholders in this risk, we should
also be empowered to make decisions for ourselves.
 The Risk should be more widely communicated to stakeholders in
order to bring awareness to the issue.
 Because the population is aging, the youth should be given education
as to how to handle and approach this risk. In this case, the
government will the main choice architect, guiding the young
population to take action in a proactive and productive manner.
(United Nations, 2011)

The notion of required actions is not one that is so easily
connected to dealing with the risk of overpopulation.
Naturally, it falls to the people as well as the National
Governments to come to a compromise between freedom
and control. However, some possible actions may be listed.
- Adopt a population restriction policy similar to the Chinese
one-child policy.
- Communicate the risk of overpopulation to the populace
and clarify the nature of the issue.
- Educate the youth on how they can impact population
growth.
- Encourage the widespread use of contraceptives and birth-
control mechanisms.
(United Nations, 2011), (WOA, 2014)
 When communicating a risk as extensive and impactful as
overpopulation, care must be taken to balance the amount of
fear that is communicated alongside the issue so as to obtain a
desired response from the population in the case of the
government acting as the choice architect.
 The nature of this issue is a global one, not merely a national
one, but attaining the cooperation of many countries, some of
which have been at odds with each other for a long time, may be
difficult.
 Many of the proposed solutions to overpopulation that can
provide immediate results are restrictive of personal freedoms
and may be opposed by the population.
 To remove people’s attention from current risks and direct them
to a new one may be just as bad as neglecting the risk of
overpopulation.
(United Nations, 2011), (WOA, 2014), (Russel & Poston, 2008)
Overpopulation, as a risk not quite communicated to
people by the most readily accessible sources of media,
mostly as a result of the indirect impact it has, does
not hold much weight in the minds of many people.
Indeed, much unlike those widely communicated and
prevailing issues such as smoking or cancer, where the
effects are evident and almost directly casual, the
impact of overpopulation is not necessarily so
obviated. Therefore, it is also important to examine
the issue of overpopulation from a psychological
standpoint in order to overcome the natural response
of inaction towards seemingly irrelevant threats.
Optimism Bias: Although the population has grown almost fourfold from 1.8 billion in 1927
to 7 billion in 2011 it is only projected to increase to 9 billion by 2050. Thus, it follows that
because such a comparatively small increase will occur over such a long period of time
and also because many people in both the developed and developing world are unable to
easily view the direct effects of overpopulation, they will see themselves as rather unlikely
to be affected by overpopulation. Even though this optimism bias is generally true for
human behavior, the seemingly indirect and distant nature of the risk overpopulation
presents can exacerbate the effects of this bias.
(United Nations, 2011)
Example Rule: Much like a horrific asteroid impact, society has not truly experienced an
overpopulation crisis before, because only recently have we advanced enough so that the
life span of a human is significantly longer than has been in the past; therefore, it cannot
be so easily envisioned like certain horrific events in the recent timespace (e.g. 9/11).
Indeed, people tend to assign a greater importance to things that can be easily recalled,
and subsequently, people tend to weight their judgments toward more recent
information, making new opinions biased toward that latest news. The prevalence of
other impactful issues such as global warming, cancer and terrorism in today’s media
overshadows the reporting that is done on a topic as un-relatable as overpopulation. This
bias of the media towards reporting on easily sensationalized topics and events in turn
causes us to overestimate the risk of those items which are reported and underestimate
the risks of those that go unreported even if they may pose a greater, latent threat.
(Gardner, 2009)

Affect Heuristic: Related to the example rule is the affect heuristic, a tendency
for us to associate a higher risk with things that provoke a negative emotional
response and a lower risk with things that elicit a positive emotional response.
Then, by the example rule, because we cannot so easily recall having an
overpopulation crisis any time recently, it is also hard for us to get any
significant emotional stimulus from it, therefore, we tend to not assign as high
a risk level to it as we do to the things that pervade the news media.
Confirmation Bias: The tendency for people to filter out information that lies
contrary to their viewpoints is confirmation bias. It is by this mechanism that
other biases are often reinforced. Truly, if the notion of the risk that
overpopulation presents is naturally mitigated in the minds of the populace
through their innate biases and cognitive mechanisms, then they will have a
harder time accepting that there is, in fact, a problem and that it should be
dealt with promptly. Indeed, by tying together the powerful influences of the
affect heuristic, example rule and the optimism bias, defeating the
confirmation bias in order to gain an objective insight into the assessment of
overpopulation is a daunting task indeed.
(Gardner, 2009)

Overpopulation is not a common issue cited to be one of the
most pressing matters of today’s world, but it is also not an
issue that should be neglected any longer. Although it was
not a problem of the past, that does not mean it wont be in
the future. The very nature of this modern era lends itself
to new problems as old ones are solved, whether through
compromise or not. Indeed, our ever increasing longevities
and capacity for innovation and survival brings us to finally
face this issue as it materializes from the darkness. It then
follows that as a whole, humanity should then at least be
aware of, and have a chance to prepare for the imminent
dangers to come - in this calm before the storm.
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