Smart Cities in Future

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Trusted Renewables:
Smart Cities of the Future

Jeff Goddard
Strategic Alliances Director @ Ingenera
Nigel Tebbutt
奈杰尔 泰巴德
Future Business Models & Emerging Technologies @ Ingenera
Adam Kent
Founder and MD @ enado

Trusted Renewables: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework ©

Smart Communities / Smart Living

Smart Buildings / Smart Homes

Intelligent Buildings / Information Management

Passivhaus / Eco-Homes
• Houses desig ed to the Go e
e t s “ustai a le Ho es Code
– Zero and low carbon homes – designed for a sustainable future

Building the Smart Homes of the Future


Home Environment Management / Home Climate Control
– Environment Sensors, Detectors and Energy Meters – connected to a Home Hub
– Heating, Lighting and Humidity Control Systems – for a perfect Home Climate

Building the Smart Homes of the Future


Smart Fridge-Freezers / Kitchen Inventory Management
– Internet-connected Smart Fridge-Freezers maintain your Home Kitchen Inventory.....
– .....and automatically replenish themselves from your favourite on-line store

Building the Smart Homes of the Future


Active and Passive Lighting Control / Air Humidity Control Systems
– Active / Passive Lighting Control maintains preferred light levels throughout the day
– Waste-air heat exchange and fresh-air humidity control optimises the Home Climate

Building the Smart Homes of the Future
• Home Automation / Home Energy Management
– Home Automation creates novel opportunities for new ways of living and working
– Home Energy Management minimises energy costs and carbon footprint

Living in the Smart Homes of the Future
• Smart Domestic Appliances / Internet Connectivity
– Smart Appliances with always-on internet connection

Working in the Smart Homes of the Future
• Smart Office / Smart Workplace
– Freedom to live, work and play in the Smart Homes of the Future

Playing in the Smart Homes of the Future
• Smart Devices / Appliances / Home Entertainment
– The o ld s e ti e atalogue of Mo ies, Cha

els a d Pla lists i

ou ho e

Smart Cities of the Future

© Hatfield Consortium 2012

Building the Smart Homes of the Future










The Smart Home of the future, as
featured in science fiction movies and
cartoons like Futurama and the Jetsons is almost upon us.
While we are not quite at the state of
transporters and instant food makers a
la Star Trek, our homes are getting
smarter and more sophisticated.
Real-time monitoring of every aspect of
your house is here already, from
plumbing to electrics, while companies
like Google are trying to get the internet
into your TV.
It takes a lot of computer power to make
this happen - and a much more
sophisticated approach to smart home
construction, presenting new
opportunities for a whole raft of
suppliers and fitters out there.

In the UK, for example, low-energy
"green" buildings are, as yet, extremely
uncommon - according to John Alker,
head of policy at the UK Green Building
Council - an industry body formed by the
largest homebuilders in the country.

Equipping the Smart Homes of the Future






AlertMe Energy is a power flow measurement device that clips to your meter and
measures the amount of power pumping through your wires. The default kit
contains three things - a meter reader, a meter transmitter, and a hub.
The guidance provided with the kit explains that you can clip it around the grid
supply cable entering out of the bottom of your electricity meter, but we found it
took a few tries to obtain a signal which was delivered to the monitor.
Happily, though, a simple clamp around a cable is all that it takes to get the device
hooked up to your electricity system. There's no unscrewing, cable-chopping or
other scary things to do - unlike some other energy monitoring kits. Once the meter
reader is in place, you hook it up to the transmitter with a 3.5mm jack, pull out a tab
to connect the batteries - and you're nearly set.

Domestic Appliance Waveform Analytics in the
Smart Homes of the Future




In the future, Intelligent Energy Metering will be all that is required to manage all domestic
utility services. A sophisticated metering solution developed by Navetas, with its product
development collaborator Cambridge Design Partnership, accurately identifies and measures
the individual electricity consumption of each and every home domestic appliance using
Waveform Analytics to capture data and provide consumers with unprecedented levels of
information and control over home energy usage.....
Every Domestic Appliance has its own Waveform Analytics Profile when switched on, is left
running, and switched off again. This means they can generate itemised energy consumption
records - just like the call details records on your mobile phone bill !

Navetas and Cambridge Design Partnership develop novel home energy hub

Domestic Appliance Waveform Analytics in the
Smart Homes of the Future


Powered by ISE, the Navetas technology solution consists of advanced
software algorithms running on a low power, low cost electronic hardware
platform which can be integrated into a range of products. In contrast with
othe disagg egatio solutio s, I“E s pate t pe di g algo ith s take
measurements at a single point on the electricity supply. Utilising
advanced signal processing and artificial intelligence techniques the
system can then calculate the energy consumption of each individual
device on the mains supply.

• Crucially for a mass market device, the ISE technology does not require
the installer/home-owner to teach the device about the house. Following
installation, the system will automatically learn about the appliances in
the house and calculate each device's energy consumption without user
intervention.
Navetas and Cambridge Design Partnership develop novel home energy hub

Using Smart Fridge-freezers in the Future








Up to one-third of all food bought is thrown away - because we are
simply unaware of the detailed contents of our fridge. Smart
Refrigerators can manage all of these problems - and more.....
– You bought extra ingredients for a recipe, and now you have leftover food or ingredients you don't know what to do with.
– You can't remember exactly when you bought something – so you
buy it again – twice. When exactly did you put that Chinese
takeaway in there? How old is that leftover roast ?
– You can't remember if you are out of, or simply running low on,
basic essentials such as beer, bread and milk. Perhaps you do
remember - but your children were inconsiderate and used up all
your milk when their friends came back home for biscuits and
milk shakes after school......
Your Smart Refrigerator uses both bar-code reading and image
processing technology with an LCD panel for display / interaction to
help make you aware of the products currently stored within.
Your Smart Refrigerator interface contains many novel features that
help you to better manage your Kitchen Inventory. You can see
everything in your refrigerator at a glance – via your Internet, Kitchen
Inventory from your PC, Laptop, Tablet or Smart Phone.
Your Smart Refrigerator automatically replenishes itself over the
Internet from your favourite 0n-line store – delivered to your door !

Using the Smart Devices of the Future






Your domestic appliances are now
powered wirelessly - so you can take
your kettle anywhere in the home. The
induction surface senses that a kettle
has been set down upon it - and
prepares to power it up.
The induction surface is using magnetic
fields to heat directly into the metal coil
inside the product, and only the coil meaning that you will not burn your
hand if you put it next to your thawing
meal or boiling kettle.
That may seem far-fetched, but the US
firm Fulton Innovations - makes this
cordless induction-heating technology –
say that we could be only three years
away from this being a reality - if
manufacturers want it to happen and
adopt the technology.

According to Fulton’s Dave Barman “Induction is more efficient and convenient
than conventional gas and electricity,
When installed properly, there shouldn't
be any cost difference between traditional
heating methods and an induction zone."

OTTBOX Lifestyle


The OTTBOX Lifestyle is a revolution in how we use the TV in the home
by simplifying how people relate to technology, devices and the services
that the Internet provides: -







Customisable home screen display and audio
Smart Home Automation and Energy Management
Listen to music and play video from Internet sources
Wireless webcams for home security and baby monitors

The OTTBOX enables your TV to be the central device controlling various
life style devices - plus giving you access to the internet. This brings the
internet to a wider range of devices and audiences through an exciting,
innovative and simple user interface - through which a wide range of
consumer lifestyle options are fulfilled with features and functions such
as browse the internet, access global on-line content including photo
and video albums, live sporting events, home shopping, video / audio
calling with Skype, listen to music, watch movies, play video games.....

NaimNet NS01 Music Server by Naim







The Naim NS01 Music Server has full NaimNet / StreamNet capability with a single audio
output on the rear panel for local playback through your Home Entertainment System.
The NS01 provides bit-perfect transfer from CD to secure hard disk storage with automatic
backup. Music is easily selected using the Naim Extended Music Database and Complex
Search facility. Network Scanning is available with local playback or NaimNet streaming of
global multi-media content from any network-connected computer or other device.
The Naim NS01 NaimNet / DigiLinX enabled 6-Stream Music Server with a single high
quality local audio output - which can be routed to multiple devices around the home.....

Tridium
Solutions for Connecting Smart Devices


Tridium is the global leader in open platforms, application software frameworks,
automation infrastructure technology, energy management and device-to-enterprise
integration solutions. Our technology and applications have fundamentally changed
the way devices and systems connect, integrate and interoperate with each other
and the enterprise.



Configurable software frameworks extend connectivity, integration and
interoperability to the millions of devices deployed in the market today and
empowers manufacturers to develop intelligent equipment systems and smart
devices that enable collaboration and communication between the enterprise and
edge assets. Our platforms allow for building and managing complex monitoring,
control, and automation solutions, including applications for building control, facility
management, industrial automation, medical equipment, physical security, energy
information systems, telecommunications, smart homes, M2M and smart services.

Tridium
The Niagara Framework®


The Niagara Framework® is a software platform that integrates diverse systems
and smart devices regardless of manufacturer, or communication protocol into a
unified platform that can be easily managed and controlled in real time over the
Internet using a standard web browser. By integrating today's diverse building
systems such as environmental controls, security, lighting, energy, video, fire and
life safety, Niagara is creating better buildings---ones that are smarter, use less
energy, are more efficient, have lower operating costs, are safer and contribute to
a sustainable environment

The “edo a Fra e ork™


The “edo a F a e o k™ is the i dust 's fi st, ope sou e de elop e t
framework that provides a complete software platform for developing, deploying,
integrating, and managing pervasive smart device applications at the lowest level.
It brings the power of programmable control and the Internet down to extremely
inexpensive devices. The Sedona Framework distributes decision making control
and manageability to any device and brings intelligence and connectivity to the
network edge and back.

Smart Cities of the Future

© Hatfield Consortium 2012

Smart Cities of the Future - Project Objectives
1. Smart Home and Building Automation - Energy Management & Control
2. Carbon Footprint Management – Energy Source, Cost and Efficiency
3. Home Security: –
a)
b)

Remote Sensing, Monitoring and Control for vulnerable and disadvantaged Citizens
Secure Environment / Safety Monitoring / Event Management / Emergency Response

4. Home Entertainment Systems Integration: –
a)
b)

5.
6.
7.
8.
9.

Communications Packages – Mobile and Broadband convergence (Femtocell)
Entertainment and Media Packages – BT / Freeview / Freesat / Sky / Virgin

Consumer Analytics – Customer Data, Profiling and Segmentation
Public services – e-Go e
e t “e i es, NH“ a d NGO s / Cha ities
Health & Well-being – Assisted Living at Home / Care in the Community
Community Strategic Planning – Hospitals, Schools, Infrastructure
Commercial Partnerships / Strategic Alliances for mutual advantage: a)
b)

Architects, Designers, Planners, Surveyors, Developers and Builders
Public / Private Partnerships - potential suppliers and service companies

Smart Cities of the Future - Project Features






Transfer BRE and InterHome hardware to
showcase smart homes in Guernsey


Link devices, sensors and appliances with smart
meters, HAN, AMI and the Grid.



Intuitive household information displays



Home Security and Communications



Integrated Home Entertainment Systems

Develop loud ased se i es
platform - SASH

a age e t



Develop new managed household and distributed
energy management solutions



Rapid smart energy services deployment and
Co su e e e g Big Data ash-ups



Cloud Security and Privacy key issues

Investigate managed micro-generation solutions
a d I tellige t et o ks –


I tellige t PV a a s – e e g fo f ee



Renewable Heat Incentives - RHI



Feed-in Tariff Scheme - FITS

26

© Hatfield Consortium 2012

Smart Home Automation, Security
Monitoring and Energy Management
New Smart Homes and Buildings in the Smart Communities and Cities of the Future will generate
vast quantities of Geo-demographic, Behavioural, Financial and Energy Data – continuously streamed
to the Cloud for Real-time Analytics. Examples might include: Smart Homes and Buildings in the Smart Communities and Cities of the Future

Building Environment – Zoned Ambient Temperature and Lighting Levels

Energy Management – Zoned Energy Demand and Consumption Patterns

Smart Appliances – Disaggregated Device Usage and Energy Consumption

Home Entertainment – Zoned Multi-device Channel Selections and Playlists
The





I ter et of E erythi g – internet-enabled pervasive Smart Devices
Mobile Smart Devices – Smart Phones, Tablets and Notebooks with Smart Apps
Smart Fridge-Freezer – Internet Auto-provisioning / Self-replenishment
CCTV & SCADA - Remote Monitoring and Control / Digital Media Streaming
Home Security – Incident and Event Management / Emergency Response

Continuous Streaming of Bio-medical Data to the Cloud

Vulnerable Citizens Support - Care in the Community / Assisted Living at Home

Medical Emergency - Incident and Event Management / Emergency Response

intelligent buildings design and building
management systems
Overview of 'intelligent buildings' and 'intelligent homes' technologies







The origins of Intelligent Buildings and Building Management Systems have their roots in the industrial
sector in the 1970's, from the systems and controls used to automate production processes and to
optimise plant performances. With the advent of the internet, the concepts and applications were
then adapted, developed and modularised during the 1980's, enabling transferability of the technology
and systems to the residential and commercial sectors.
The field of Intelligent Buildings, Intelligent Homes, Building Management Systems (BMS) encompasses
an enormous variety of technologies, across commercial, industrial, institutional and domestic
buildings, including energy management systems and building controls. The function of Building
Management Systems is central to 'Intelligent Buildings' concepts; its purpose is to control, monitor
and optimise building services, for example., lighting; heating; security, CCTV and alarm systems; access
control; audio-visual and entertainment systems; ventilation, filtration and climate control, etc.; even
time & attendance control and reporting (notably staff movement and availability). The potential for
i teg ati g these Isla ds of Auto atio usi g e a d e e gi g te h olog is ast, a d ou li es a e
changing from the effects of Intelligent Buildings developments on our living and working
environments.
The impact on facilities planning and facilities management is also potentially immense. Any facilities
managers considering premises development or site relocation should also consider the opportunities
presented by Intelligent Buildings technologies and concepts.

intelligent buildings - control theory
Overview of 'intelligent buildings control theory' and 'intelligent homes' environment
• The essence of Building Management Systems and Intelligent Buildings is in the sensing,
metering and control technologies, which allow integration, automation, and optimisation of all
the intelligent devices and equipment that in turn provide home energy services for managing
the climate and environment of the intelligent building.
• Programmable Logic Controllers (PLC's) formed the original basis of the control technologies.
Later developments in commercial and residential applications are now based on 'distributedi tellige e i op o esso s / loud se i es p edi ti e a al ti s .
• The use of these technologies allows the optimisation of various site and building services,
maintaining comfortable ambient climate yielding cost reductions and carbon footprint savings.
There are numerous methods by which the various services within buildings can be controlled,
falling broadly into a number of methods types: –






Passive – Information based – providing energy display information only to householders
Time based - switching on air-conditioning, heating, hone entertainment, home security, lighting
services, Care in the Community or Assisted Living at Home etc - only where and when required
Optimised - Parameter based - utilising a measure of the home service, such as temperature for space
heating, humidity for air-conditioning, decibels for hone entertainment, movement for home security,
lumens for lighting services,– in order to maintain desired values within a range
Active - Response-based - algorithms and feedback loops to maintain home climate control
Adaptive - Learning-based - Predictive Analytics to maintain an ambient home environment

heating – home climate control
Heating - optimisation and parameter-based (temperature) control examples








Time-based controls can be used to turn on and off the space heating, condensing boilers
(and/or water heating) or reverse the air-conditioning system at pre-selected periods (time of
day, week, season etc). Using temperature range Optimisation Parameters: whatever the
conditions, the controls make sure the building reaches the desired temperature for the
estimated time when occupancy is due to resume.
Temperature control: protection against freezing or frost protection generally involves running
space heating and air-conditioning systems and boilers (and/or water heating) when external
temperature reaches a set level (4°C). Compensated systems: will control flow temperature in
the air-conditioning system relative to external temperature. This will give a rise in the internal
flow temperature when external temperature drops.
Thermostatic radiator valves: these sense space temperature in a room and throttle the flow
accordingly through the radiator or convector to which they are fitted. Proportional control:
involves switching equipment on and off automatically to regulate output.
Other methods can include manual user control, thermostats, occupancy sensing PIR's (passive
infra-red sensors), for time-based control and parameter-based control - and sophisticated
computer-based Optimised, Active and Adaptive Controlled Environments

humidity – home environment control
Humidity - optimisation and parameter-based (water vapour) control examples








Time-based controls can be used to turn on and off the air-conditioning system (and/or air
heating and warm air recovery) for pre-selected patterns (time of day, week, season etc). Using
humidity range Optimisation Parameters: whatever the external conditions, controls ensure the
building reaches the desired humidity for comfortable occupation.
Temperature control: protection against freezing or frost protection generally involves running
air-conditioning system and air heat exchange pumps and de-humidifiers when external
humidity reaches a set level (% water vapour). Condensation systems: will control humidity in
the air-conditioning system relative to external conditions. This will lower home humidity and
air temperature when outside temperature and humidity rises.
Barometric air exchange systems: sense air humidity in fresh air and control the water vapour
level accordingly through the air condenser which they control. Proportional control: involves
switching equipment on and off automatically to regulate humidity.
Other methods can include manual user control, thermostats, occupancy sensing PIR's (passive
infra-red sensors), for time-based control and parameter-based control - and sophisticated
computer-based Optimised, Active and Adaptive Controlled Smart Home and Building
Environments

lighting - ambient control methods
Lighting (active and passive) - optimisation and parameter-based control examples
• A variety of different control systems exist for both active and passive lighting sources: –












Passive – Information based – providing household zone lighting level display information only
Time based - switching on lighting services (active / passive) - only where and when required
Optimised - Parameter based - utilising a measure of the service, such as zoned light levels for ambient
illumination and space lighting – in order to maintain desired values within a range
Active - Response-based - algorithms and feedback loops to maintain home light control
Adaptive - Learning-based - Predictive Analytics to maintain an ambient lighting environment

Zones: - lights are switched on corresponding to the use and layout of the illuminated zones or
areas - in order to avoid lighting a large area if only a small part is being used.
Time-based control: - timed controllers switch active and passive light sources on and off
automatically in each zone to a pre-set schedule for light use and illumination level.
Parameter-based and optimised lighting control: - where an ambient and highlight levels of
illumination - or particular use of lighting is required - or changes on-demand.
Passive Infra-Red (PIR) Occupancy sensing: - In those areas or zones which are occupied
intermittently, occupancy sensors can be used to indicate whether or not anybody is present and
switch the lighting system on or off accordingly (e.g. external).
Light level monitoring: - this consists of managing natural light or switching or dimming artificial
lighting to maintain a pre-determined light level - as measured by a photocell.

Smart Cities of the Future




'Smart Home' is an alternative term for an intelligent residential building, or an
intelligent home. A few years ago these concepts may have been considered fanciful
and futuristic. Now they are reality. 'Smart Home' is now commonly used to define a
residential building that uses an internet-enabled cloud-based control system to
integrate the residence's various home automation systems.
Integrating the various home systems allows them to communicate with one another
through the Home Hub - enabling local and remote one-touch or voice activation via
a Smart Phone or Tablet – controlling multiple home systems simultaneously, in preprogrammed scenarios, active or adaptive modes: – Home Environment Management - Heating, Lighting and Humidity
– Home Security Management – Fire, Theft, Security and Access Management
– Home Entertainment – Global Multi-media Internet Content Management



Smart Kitchen –
– Smart Fridge-freezer, Kitchen Inventory, Automatic replenishment over the internet



The development of smart home systems opportunities and challenges of the future
focus on how the home and its related technologies, products, and services should
evolve to best meet the needs and desires of the occupants.

Smart Cities of the Future
Smart Home Design possibilities and variations are endless. Here are some examples: smart home - example scenario 1
• A scenario such as the 'I'm Home' scenario could be triggered by pressing one button on a keyring remote-control or Smart Phone from your vehicle as you approach the driveway. The
control system receives the key-ring remote-control's command. This will then trigger a preprogrammed sequence of functions. For example starting by turning on the lighting in the
driveway, garage, hallway, and kitchen. It then disarms the security system, opens the garage
door, unlocks the interior garage entry door, adjusts the waste heat air exchange system or airconditioning to a preset temperature, and turns on the home entertainment system playing
your favourite Movie, Audio Playlist or Channel selection - whilst making you a coffee and
drawing you a bath.....
• The Smart home control system is programmed to meet specific user requirements, initiating
sequential automatic operation of the home systems, in response to 'one button' commands
based on the situation and or time.
• I am grateful to Adam Kent of Enado http://www.enado.com/ for providing much of the
content used n this section. Enado specialise in the design of intelligent buildings, and smart
living and working environments - including design for integrated living, energy efficiency and
climate change considerations.

Smart Cities of the Future
smart homes - example scenario 2






At 7:30am and you awake to the sound of your favourite playlist or channel playing in the
background; the lights and sound in your bedroom gradually 'fading up' to allow you to
awake in your own time. A bath is drawn for you and the towel heater in the bathroom
warms up the towels and robes. Downstairs the intruder alarm system is de-activated and
ground floor curtains and blinds partially open; in the kitchen the coffee machine turns on to
make a latte. - and you haven't even got out of bed yet !
This simple example demonstrates how smart home technology will improve people's lives.
Designing integrated systems that work together to automate simple everyday tasks, improve
your quality of life and reduce stress levels.
Much of this section has been contributed by Gary Mills, a leading UK-based specialist in the
field of Intelligent Buildings, Intelligent Homes, and Building Management Systems. For UK
residents interested in receiving a Transparent Building CD-ROM which includes information
relating to Home Automation subjects please email your enquiry to
[email protected], or call: (UK) 0845 020 4360.

TECHNICAL APPENDICES

© Hatfield Consortium 2010

Smart Cities of the Future: Proposal

Smart Homes, Smart People, Smart Lives

Smart Cities of the Future Proposal
Trusted Renewables:
Jeff Goddard
Strategic Alliances Director @ Company Alliances
Nigel Tebbutt
奈杰尔 泰巴德
Future Business Models & Emerging Technologies @ Trusted Renewables
Adam Kent
Founder and MD @ enado

Trusted Renewables: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework ©

Smart Cities of the Future Proposal






The Smart Cities of the Future Proposal is a Strategic Initiative for a Smart Energy
Research and Innovation Project Cluster - intended perform Market Testing, to reuse, build on and extend the Smart Energy Framework of previous DECC / OFGEM
and DoBIS / TSB Funded Projects – to integrate Smart Devices in Smart Homes with
Home Area Network (HAN) work that Trusted Renewables is currently undertaking
with the Telemetry Association Home Integration (TAHI) Working Group.
Part of the Funding will be invested with Academic and Research Partners. Earlier
this year, in the Pilot Project for the Smart Cities of the Future Proposal, Service
Aggregation for Smart Homes (SASH - see my feasibility study presentation on
Acedemia.edu) - Trusted Renewables partnered with Hertfordshire University and
the Building Research Establishment (BRE).to form the Hatfield Consortium - in
order to demonstrate Smart Energy Services utilising Smart Devices integrated via
the Smart Grid to various Cloud Services.
Proposal Objectives will be achieved using Real-time Analytics to help understand
intimate consumer behaviour in response to living in Smart Homes equipped with
a range of different passive, active and adaptive Smart Energy and Home
Environment Management Systems. This in turn will help us to understand how
Smart Energy and Consumer Geo-demographic Data can be used to launch
innovative Smart Devices and Value-added Services– and help us to shape and
influence the design of Smart Energy Products and Services available to Smart
Consumers in the Smart Homes, Smart Villages, Smart Towns and Smart Cities in
the Built Environment of the Future.

Phase 1


Phase 1 – Commission and install suitable hardware / software configurations to
support the following Pilot and Proof-of-Concept Smart Energy demonstration
platforms:–










Smart Appliances, Sensors, Detectors, Controllers, Alarms and HDCCTV
Home Area Network – Smart Energy Data Hub and In-home Smart Devices
Grid Box – Cloud-hosted Smart Energy and Value Added Services Platform
Home Security, Safety and Wellbeing – Fire, Intruder and Biometrics Alarms
Community Services – Portal for Local and National e-Government Services
Biomedical Data Streaming – Assisted Living at Home + Care in the Community
Home Shopping – Smart Fridge-Freezers, automatic inventory and replenishment
AMI Head-end Server – High-volume OLTP to host Smart Energy Data Management
Smart Energy and Home Environment Management Systems – Disaggregated Energy Data
Smart Grid – WiFi mesh / WiMAX / LTE / IMT Wireless Communication Spine Network
Access
– Data Warehouse Appliance – to host Smart Energy Geo-demographic Data OLAP BI
Environment
– Home Entertainment Controller – Digital Media Streaming of Channels / Playlists Data to
the Cloud
– Real-time Analytics Engine – to host Energy Trading, Demand Modelling, Contract Balancing
& Optimisation

Phase 2


Phase 2 – Set up a Smart Energy Homes Trial (use existing e.g. Derby Smart
Homes and Cotswold Smart Village initiatives?) to demonstrate: – How Smart Energy Systems can monitor and control the Home Environment
– How Consumers respond to various changes in Home Environmental Factors
– How In-home Smart Devices linked to Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) in the
Cloud can monitor and control the Home Environment and how this shapes,
influences and drives Consumer Behaviour

Smart Homes, Smart People, Smart Lives

Phase 3


Phase 3 – Launch a Smart Energy Proposal consisting of a number of closely
integrated Smart Energy Research and Innovation Projects: – 1). Research Project to demonstrate a Smart Energy Home Environment
Management System: – Launch a Proof-of-concept Research Project to demonstrate capability to build a
Home Area Network (HAN) integrating various Smart Devices – Appliances,
Sensors and Controllers – using Smart Energy Data to support a range of passive,
interactive and adaptive Home Environment Management Systems.
– 2). Research Project to demonstrate Smart Grid end-to-end connectivity and
scalability via an Advanced Meter Infrastructure (AMI) Head-end Server
running SAP AMI and MDUS: – Launch a Proof-of-concept Research Project to demonstrate capability to build
an Advanced Meter Infrastructure (AMI) head-end Server – running SAP AMI and
MDUS with incremental Smart Meter population connectivity via the Smart Grid
– in turn feeding a SAP ISU instance via IDEX Energy Data Management and a
SAP HANA instance synchronised with BW using Business Objects.

Phase 3


Phase 3 – Launch a Smart Energy Proposal consisting of a number of closely
integrated Smart Energy Research and Innovation Projects: – 3). Research Project to demonstrate exploitation of Geo-demographic Data via Real-time
Analytics using Smart Home Energy Data transported over the Smart Grid: – Create a Strategic Alliance to explore how to extract enhanced business value from the vast
amount of geo demographic data generated by Smart Meter installations in EU homes using real-time Analytics to help understand intimate consumer behaviour in response to
living in Smart Homes equipped with a range of different passive, active and adaptive
Smart Energy and Home Environment Management Systems utilising Cloud Services and
accessed via the Smart Grid.
– 4). Research Project to demonstrate Real-time Analytics using SAP HANA fed by Smart
Home Energy Data via the Smart Grid: – Use SAP HANA Real-time Analytics to drive a detailed study in order to demonstrate: – How Smart Energy Systems can monitor and control the Home Environment
– How Consumers respond to various changes in Home Environmental Factors
– How In-home Smart Devices linked to Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) in the Cloud can
monitor and control the Home Environment and how this shapes, influences and drives
Consumer Behaviour

Phase 3


Phase 3 – Launch a Smart Energy Proposal consisting of a number of
closely integrated Smart Energy Research and Innovation Projects: –








5). Research Project to demonstrate integration of Community Renewable Energy Schemes (Wind,
Solar, Biomass CHP) with Smart Energy Home Environment Management Systems: Set up a Smart Energy Home Automation Trail (use existing e.g. Derby Smart Homes and Smart Village
initiatives?) integrated with Community Renewable Energy Schemes to demonstrate: How Home Smart Energy Systems integrated with Community Renewable Energy Schemes can
balance and optimise Energy utilisation, Import & Export from Wind, Solar and Biomass CHP
Generation
How In-home Smart Devices linked to Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) in the Cloud can monitor and
control the Home Environment and how this shapes, influences and drives Energy Saving and Fuel
Efficiency in Consumer Behaviour and promotes Environmental Protection goals and objectives.

6). Research Project to demonstrate how understanding Smart Energy and Geo-demographic Data discovering patterns, extrapolations and trends in Consumer Behaviour interacting with passive and
active Smart Homes - may be used to inform the design of the Smart Built Environment of the
Future: Utilise Smart Energy Geo-demographic Data to help shape, inform and influence the design of Smart
Devices and Smart Energy Services available to Smart Consumers living and working in the Built
Environment of the Future. This will comprise of Smart Communities (Smart Homes, Smart Villages,
Smart Towns and Smart Cities) with Smart Energy Home Automation and Community Renewable
Energy Schemes in the new Managed Urban Built Environment – an innovative Energy Zoned, Master
Planned Cityscape, which is Designed, Integrated, Built and Managed as the Energy-efficient
Ecological Urban Built Environment of the future – featuring shared Smart Community Energy
Planning (Solar, Wind and CHP) and Passive Zones.

Smart Cities of the Future

© Hatfield Consortium 2012

Commercial and Retail Propositions

Smart Homes, Smart People, Smart Lives

Smart Homes and Buildings - Service
Provisioning


The Smart Homes Service Provisioning Model is based on an awardwinning energy-efficient intelligent house design, developed by the
University of Hertfordshire - a demonstration home equipped with some
of the Smart Devices featured in BRE smart homes – and utilised in the
Service Aggregation for Smart Homes (SASH) trial. The Provisioning Model
is based on ordering / installing Smart Devices, linked to a home area
network (HAN), in turn connected via the Smart Grid to the Service
Aggregation for Smart Homes (SASH) Cloud Platform for Data Capture.



The Green Deal Service Provisioning Model is a trial for the prospective
UK Green Deal Home Improvement Initiative. In addition to conducting
Home Energy Surveys and providing technology installation and trials, the
Green Deal Proposal will develop interactive Energy Saving and home
carbon footprint measurement tools, intuitive household information
displays and a definitive set of Smart Devices and Smart Home baseline
message standards to access UK CCP Communication Spine and DCC Data
Management services – as well as multiple supplier Energy Service Broker,
Provisioning, Management, Monitoring and Control Cloud Infrastructure.

Intelligent Buildings - Security Monitoring and Energy
Management Services (Commercial Sector)
Intelligent Buildings and Complexes in the Smart Communities and Cities of the Future will
generate vast quantities of Geo-demographic, Social, Behavioural, Financial, Energy and
Environmental Data – continuously streamed to the Cloud for Real-time Analytics, Intelligent
Agents, Alerts and Alarms. Examples might include some of the following: Smart Homes and Buildings in the Smart Communities and Cities of the Future

Building Environment – Zoned Ambient Temperature and Lighting Levels

Energy Management – Zoned Energy Demand and Consumption Patterns

Safety Management – Fire, Flood, Waste, Noxious and Toxic Substances Threats

Security and Access Management – Unauthorised individuals Intrusion and Theft Prevention
Remote Monitoring and Control – internet-enabled pervasive Smart Devices

Mobile Smart Devices – Smart Phones, Tablets and Notebooks with Smart Apps

Smart Building Management– Internet Auto-provisioning / Self-replenishment

CCTV & SCADA - Remote Monitoring and Control / Digital Media Streaming

Building Security – Incident and Event Management / Emergency Response
Continuous Streaming of Building and Environmental Data to the Cloud

Public Safety and Citizen Support - Shopping malls, Civic and Leisure centres, Schools and Hospitals

Environment, Civil and Medical Emergencies - Incident and Event Management / Emergency Response

Intelligent Buildings - Security Monitoring and
Energy Management Services (Commercial Sector)
DEMAND SIDE

CUSTOMER FACING

SERVICE BROKERING

SUPPLY SIDE

Public / Private Sector

Channel-to-Market

Channel-to-Services

“Man in a White Van”

Thousands of Properties

Hundreds of Property Agents

Tens of Service Brokers

Thousands of Suppliers

Building Owners and
Government Departments

Property Agents, Facilities
Managers & Crown Agencies

SME’s

Sole Traders

Require Building Services

Information Access

Appointment / Diary

Appointment / Diary

Service Request

Skills / Certification

Skills / Certification

• Access Control

Finance Options

Scheduling / Routing

Tools / Equipment

• Building Security

Customer Services

Service Management

Survey / Inspection

• Energy Management

Appointment / Diary

Product Management

Inventory

• Environment Control

Sales Order Processing

Supplier Management

Direct Labour

• Sheltered Accommodation
• Care Centers / Homes

Payment Processing –
Customer or Third party

Work Order Management
Service Provisioning

Work Instructions
Service Delivery

• Fire / Flood / Intrusion

Revenue Allocation

Service Monitoring

System Maintenance

• Incident Management

Problem / Fault Reporting

Problem / Fault Management

Fault Rectification

• Emergency Response

Estate Owners

Property Managers

Service Brokers

Service Providers

Home Automation, Security Monitoring and Energy
Management (Retail Sector)
Smart Homes / Shared Facilities in the Smart Communities and Cities of the Future will
generate vast quantities of Geo-demographic, Social, Behavioural, Financial, Energy and
Environmental Data – continuously streamed to the Cloud for Real-time Analytics, Intelligent
Agents, Alerts and Alarms. Examples might include some of the following: Smart Homes and Buildings in the Smart Communities and Cities of the Future

Building Environment – Zoned Ambient Temperature and Lighting Levels

Energy Management – Zoned Energy Demand and Consumption Patterns

Smart Appliances – Disaggregated Device Usage and Energy Consumption

Home Entertainment – Zoned Multi-device Channel Selections and Playlists
The





I ter et of E erythi g – internet-enabled pervasive Smart Devices
Mobile Smart Devices – Smart Phones, Tablets and Notebooks with Smart Apps
Smart Fridge-Freezer – Internet Auto-provisioning / Self-replenishment
CCTV & SCADA - Remote Monitoring and Control / Digital Media Streaming
Home Security – Incident and Event Management / Emergency Response

Continuous Streaming of Bio-medical Data to the Cloud

Vulnerable Citizens Support - Care in the Community / Assisted Living at Home

Medical Emergency - Incident and Event Management / Emergency Response

Home Automation, Security Monitoring and
Energy Management (Retail Sector)
DEMAND SIDE

CUSTOMER FACING

SERVICE BROKERING

SUPPLY SIDE

Public / Private Sector

Channel-to-Market

Channel-to-Services

“Man in a White Van”

Millions of Individuals

Hundreds of Retailers

Tens of Service Brokers

Thousands of Suppliers

Citizens / Consumers

Corporate Brands

SME’s

Sole Traders

Need a Home Service

Information Access

Appointment / Diary

Appointment / Diary

Service Request

Skills / Certification

Skills / Certification

• Home Security

Finance Options

Scheduling / Routing

Tools / Equipment

• Home Entertainment

Customer Services

Service Management

Survey / Inspection

• Energy Management

Appointment / Diary

Product Management

Inventory

• Environment Control

Sales Order Processing

Supplier Management

Direct Labour

• Care in the Community
• Assisted Living at Home

Payment Processing –
Customer or Third party

Work Order Management
Service Provisioning

Work Instructions
Service Delivery

• Biomedical Data Capture

Revenue Allocation

Service Monitoring

System Maintenance

• Incident Management

Problem / Fault Reporting

Problem / Fault Management

Fault Rectification

• Emergency Response

Home Occupiers

Retailers

Service Brokers

Service Providers

Smart Homes – Service Provisioning
1.
2.
3.

Energy Supplier and Tariff Switching - Multi-service Smart Metering - MOP / MAP
Smart Home Retail Proposition – Customer Offer, Experience and Journey
Smart Home Life-cycle Management – Home Automation
1.
2.
3.
4.

Site Survey, Sale, Installation Plan and Warranty Agreement
Finance Plan, Payment Options and Receivables Management
Service Management - Installation Provisioning and Service Delivery
Customer Services, System Monitoring, Maintenance and Fault Management

Cloud Services – Streaming Home Entertainment, Energy Management and Biomedical Data
Mobile Security - Identity & Access Management, Cloud Security Principles & Policies
Smart Apps Cost / Savings Models – Smart Home Energy Saving Benefits Management Package
Mobile Enterprise Platforms - Smart Devices, Smart Apps, Cloud Services and Smart Grid
Location, Property and Geo-demographic Data Gazetteer– Integration with external data sources
Micro-marketing and Mass-customisation – individually tailored in-home Service Provisioning
Home Automation and Smart Energy Management – devices, sensors and controllers
Integration with in-home Smart Devices – Energy Management System and Smart Appliances
Integration with in-home Smart Devices – Home Entertainment System and Security System
Building Environment Management – Passive, Active and Adaptive home management modes
Carbon Footprint Management - Alternative Green, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Sources – Wind, Wave,
Tidal, Solar, Hydro-thermal, Hydro-electricity, Combined Heat & Power (CHP) , Biomass
15. Service Aggregation, Home and Energy Management Systems - Remote Sensing, Monitoring, Control
16. Energy Supply Value Chain – End-to-e d KPI s a d Busi ess P o ess Ma age e t BPM
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.

SMART HOMES SERVICE PROVISIONING

B&Q
SMART HOMES
SERVICE PROVISIONING

CCTV &
SCADA

Systems
Integration

“Big
Data”

Cloud
Services

3rd Party
Market
Data

SMART HOMES
Smart Energy Service
Brokering,
Provisioning and
Management

Service Providers

Ingenera

Smart Home Value-added Services Environment Management, Smart
Devices, Home Entertainment, Geodemographic Data Streaming to the
Cloud, Micro-marketing - Individuality
Targeted Personalised Advertising

Green Deal - Service Provisioning
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Energy Supplier and Tariff Switching Comparisons and Energy Advice
Ho e E e g “u e s usi g “ a t De i es Ta lets a d HHD s
Building Information Models (BIMs) and Energy Performance Certificates (EPC)
Golde ‘ule" al ulatio , E e g -saving Measures and Quotation
Green Deal Retail Proposition – Customer Offer, Experience and Journey
Green Deal Life-cycle - Product and Vendor Management: 1.
2.
3.
4.

7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.

Site Survey, Sale, Installation Plan and Warranty Agreement
Finance Plan, Payment Options and Receivables Management
Service Management - Installation Provisioning and Service Delivery
Customer Services, System Monitoring, Maintenance and Fault Management

Green Deal Energy Saving and Benefits Management - Cost / Savings Models
Alternative Funding - including Eco Funding for Special Needs Groups
Process Orchestration and Workflow – ERP, CRM and 3rd-party Smart Apps
Mobile Enterprise Platforms - Smart Devices, Smart Apps, Grid Box and Smart Grid
Cloud Services – PaaS, SaaS, SalesForce.com. e-Tech, SAP ByD, VCE
Integration with external data sources – Location, Property and Geo-demographic Data
Integration with 3rd-party Market Data Providers - NES, Landmark, MRESCO etc.
DECC / OFGEM and BoE / FSA Compliance, Regulatory Reporting and Control

GREEN DEAL SERVICE PROVISIONING
EPC
Surveyor

CCTV & SCADA

Schedule Home
Energy Survey

Installer

Energy
Bills

“Big
Data!

Schedules
Works Orders

Green Deal
Installation

Home Energy Survey
EPC

3rd Party
Market
Data

FUTURE
HOMES

Schedule
Installation

Home

Organises
Contract

Home
Assessor
Survey

Energy
Supply
Home Owner
GDAR
Contract

Energy
Company

Home
Assessor

Options
Energy
Tariff
Switch

Repayments

Customer
Finance
Provision

Owns
Contract

Permission
For Billing

Finance
Provider

Green Deal
Service Provider

Green
Deal
Sale

Green
Deal
Contract
Goods
Purchase
Order

Deliver
Goods

Cloud
Services

Books
Home
Survey

Green
Deal
Service
Broker

Call
Centre

WEB

Store

Provisions
Goods

Systems
Integrators

Provisions
Services

Smart Cities of the Future

High Level Architecture Storyboard V0.1 Draft
Smart Homes, Smart People, Smart Lives

1. SMART HOMES SERVICE PROVISIONING

B&Q
SMART HOMES
SERVICE PROVISIONING

CCTV &
SCADA

Systems
Integration

“Big
Data”

Cloud
Services

3rd Party
Market
Data

SMART HOMES
Smart Energy Service
Brokering,
Provisioning and
Management

Service Providers

Ingenera

Smart Home Value-added Services Environment Management, Smart
Devices, Home Entertainment, Geodemographic Data Streaming to the
Cloud, Micro-marketing - Individuality
Targeted Personalised Advertising

2. GREEN DEAL SERVICE PROVISIONING
EPC
Surveyor

CCTV & SCADA

Schedules
Works Orders

Installer

Energy
Bills

“Big
Data”

FUTURE
HOMES

Green Deal
Installation

Home Energy Survey
EPC

3rd Party
Market
Data

Schedule Home
Energy Survey

Schedule
Installation

Home

Organises
Contract

Home
Assessor
Survey

Energy
Supply
Home Owner
GDAR
Contract

Energy
Company

Home
Assessor

Options
Energy
Tariff
Switch

Repayments

Customer
Finance
Provision

Owns
Contract

Permission
For Billing

Finance
Provider

Green Deal
Service Provider

Green
Deal
Sale

Green
Deal
Contract
Goods
Purchase
Order

Deliver
Goods

Cloud
Services

Books
Home
Survey

Green
Deal
Service
Broker

Call
Centre

WEB

Store

Provisions
Goods

Systems
Integration

Provisions
Services

3. Smart Cities of the Future Architecture Overview
Process Overview - Level 1
1.13
Switch
Tariff

HHD In-home
Assessment
1.2
Meet and
Greet

1.3
Understand
Customer
Needs

1.4
Discuss
Potential
solutions

1.9
Finalise
Quotation

In Home
Assesment

1.5 Capture
Lead for
Future
Follow up

1.10
Close
Sales

1.6
Qualify
Lead - DIY
SAP
Assessment
1.12 Manage
Installation
1.7B&Q
DIY sale

1.8 Resolve
Emergency

1.11FH
DIY sale

1.15.6Close
GD
Finance
Plan

1.14
Post Install
Support

1.16 manage
Post Install
Finance Plan

1.17. Manage
Post Install
Support Product

4. Smart Cities of the Future Architecture Overview
System Overview - Level 0
Home Inspection / Survey

CRM
Customer Relationship
Management (CRM)

ERP

PROSPECTS

Mobile Hand-held Device

Green Deal Pack –
Property Assessment

CUSTOMERS

Inventory Provisioning and
Product Management

QUOTES
ORDERS

Warranty

CONTRACTS

Contract Management
and Product Warranty

Green Deal Pack –
Financial Assessment

Cloud Services Data Centre

5. Smart Cities of the Future Architecture Overview
Data Overview - Level 0
Home Inspection / Survey

CRM

Mobile Hand-held Device (HHD)
Customer
Customer
Relationship
Management (CRM)
CUSTOMERS

ERP
Installer

WORK
ORDER

Order

APPOINTMENTS

Assessor

Property
ASSESMENT

SALES ORDERS

Survey
PRODUCTS
MEASURES

Service
Delivery

Warranty

Contract

FINANCE

Quote

CONTRACT

Warranty

Cloud Services Data Centre

6. Smart Cities of the Future Architecture Overview
Systems Overview - Level 2
Customer Relationship Management (CRM)
ECO INFO
WEBSITE

ENERGY
RULES
ENGINE

CONTENT
MANAGER

PRODUCT
CATALOGUE

Hand-held Device - In-home Assessment

CALL CENTRE
DATA
CAPTURE

CONTACT
MANAGER

QUOTE
RULES
ENGINE

TRADE
DIRECTOR

DESIGN TOOL

SERVICE
ACCESS

SERVICE
PROVISION

SERVICE
DELIVERY

ORDER
PRODUCTS

MANAGE
PAYMENT

ALLOCATE
PRODUCTS

ECO REPORTS

Financial Pack – Quotation to Sales Order

SERVICE
MANAGER
PRODUCT
CATALOGUE

PRODUCTINF
O

ENERGY
RULES
ENGINE

ECO
REPORTIS

Inventory Provisioning, Installation, Service Delivery
SERVICE INFO

DESIGN TOOL

QUOTE
RULES
ENGINE

FINANCE
RULES
ENGINE

SALES
CONTRACT

DELIVER
PRODUCTS

Contract Management (Warranty)
ECO SERVICE
WEBSITE

PLANNINGSY
STEMS

CALL CENTRE

REPORT
SYSTEMS

SERVICE
PROVISIONING

QUALITY
SYSTEMS

IN-BOUND
DATA
MANAGER

CONTRACT
MANAGEMENT

SUPPORT
SYSTEMS

Shared Services
Finance
SYSTEMS

e-GOVERNMENT
PORTAL

HR SYSTEMS

FINANCIAL
SERVICES
COMPLIANCE

KEY
Re-use
Existing
System

New ECO
Instance of
Component

New ECO
Solution
Requited

3rd Party
Vendor
Solution

7. Smart Cities of the Future Architecture Overview
Energy Assessment and Sale - Level 3

In-home Property Assessment – Survey to Quote
PROPERTYRE
GISTER

OCCUPIERRE
GISTER

HOME
ASSESS

ASSESS
DATA

PROPERTY
DIRECTORY

DATA
CAPTURE

DESIGN ECO
MEASURES

DESIGN
DATA

ENERGY
PERFORM
CERTS

EPC
DATA

Financial Pack – Quotation to Sales Order
DESIGN ECO
MEASURES

DESIGN
DATA

ENERGY
PERFORM
CERTS

EPC
DATA

QUOTE

Home Owner

ECO
REPORTIS

CACHED
REPORTS

QUOTES

OCCUPIER
DIRECTORY

ECO DATA
MANAGER

CONTRACT

CONTRACTS

PROPERTYRU
LES ENGINE

DESIGN TOOL

ENERGY
RULES
ENGINE

Surveyor / Assessor

DESIGN TOOL

ENERGY
RULES
ENGINE

QUOTE
RULES
ENGINE

FINANCE
RULES
ENGINE

REPORT
ENGINE

8. Smart Cities of the Future Architecture Overview
In-home Survey - Level 1
e-Tech Hand-held Device
DATA
CAPTURE

Green Deal Pack –
Property

MASTER
DATA

RULES
ENGINES

Green Deal Pack –
Financial

REPORTS

Mobile Data
Internet
WEB
Portal

ECO INFO
WEBSITE

Synchronisation

e-Tech Secure Data Hub – Operational Data Store (ODS)

Customer Relationship
Management (CRM)

Inventory Provisioning and
Product Management

Contract Management
and Product Warranty

3rd Party Commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) Software

Data
Integration
Services

DATA
MANAGER

9. Smart Cities of the Future Architecture Overview
Application Integration Architecture - Level 1

Smart Cities of the Future

Functional Architecture Overview V0.1 Draft
Smart Homes, Smart People, Smart Lives

1. Smart Cities of the Future Architecture Overview
CRM Prospect Management - Level 3

ECO WEBSITE

CALL CENTRE

MEASURES &
SOLUTIONS
CATALOGUE

PMAINTAIN
PROPERTY

CONTACT
DATA

MEASURES &
SOLUTIONS
DATABASE

PROPERTY
DATABASE

MAINTAIN
PROSPECT

MAINTAIN
CUSTOMER

PROSPECT
DATABASE

CUSTOMER
ACCOUNT
DATABASER

RECORD/
OPPORTUNITY

PERFORM DIY
SAP

ECM
ENTERPRISE
CONTENT

CONTENT
MANAGER

CONTACT
MANAGER

Home Owners

OPPORTUNITY
DATABASE

PROSPECT
MANAGEMENT

Retail Assistant

Call-centre Agent

DIY SAP
ASSESSMENTG

MANAGE
SAP DIY
ASSESSMENTS

2. Smart Cities of the Future Architecture Overview
CRM Assessor & Appointment Management - Level 3

ECO WEBSITE

CALL CENTRE

PRODUCT
CATALOGUE

CONTACT
DATA

PRODUCT
CATALOGUE

PROPERTY
GAZZETTE

ELECTORAL
REGISTER

ASSESOR
DIRECTORY

NATIONAL
LOCATION
& PROPERTY
GAZZETTEER

GEO-DEMOGRAPHIC
DATABASE

DIARY /
BOOKING

OPTIMISE
work

ECM

ENTERPRISE
CONTENT

CONTENT
MANAGER

Home Owner

CONTACT
MANAGER

ASSESSOR
OVERSIGHT
REGISTER

ASSESOR
OVERSIGHT

Retail Assistant

Call-centre Agent

CALLENDAR
APPOINTMENTS

GIS
MAPPING

OPTIMISE
ROUTES

Surveyor / Assessors

3. Smart Cities of the Future Architecture Overview
Smart Cities of the Future Energy Assessment & Sale

In-home Property Assessment – Survey to Quote
PROPERTYRE
GISTER

OCCUPIERRE
GISTER

HOME
ASSESS

ASSESS
DATA

PROPERTY
DIRECTORY

DATA
CAPTURE

DESIGN ECO
MEASURES

DESIGN
DATA

ENERGY
PERFORM
CERTS

EPC
DATA

Financial Pack – Quotation to Sales Order
DESIGN ECO
MEASURES

DESIGN
DATA

ENERGY
PERFORM
CERTS

EPC
DATA

QUOTE

Home Owner

ECO
REPORTIS

CACHED
REPORTS

QUOTES

OCCUPIER
DIRECTORY

ECO DATA
MANAGER

CONTRACT

CONTRACTS

PROPERTYRU
LES ENGINE

DESIGN TOOL

Surveyor / Assessor

ENERGY
RULES
ENGINE

DESIGN TOOL

ENERGY
RULES
ENGINE

Retail Assistant

QUOTE
RULES
ENGINE

FINANCE
RULES
ENGINE

REPORT
ENGINE

Call-centre Agent

4. Smart Cities of the Future Architecture Overview
Installation & Service Management - Level 3

Installation and Service Management

SERVICE INFO

TRADE
REGISTER

SKILLS
MATRIX

SERVICE
ACCESS

SERVICE
PROVISION

SERVICE
DELIVERY

SERVICE
MANAGER

TRADE
DIRECTORY

TRADE
CERTIFICATION

DIARY &
APPOINTMENTS

WORKS
ORDERS

INSTALLATION
DATABASE

SERVICE
REPORTS

SERVICE
DATA

Home Owner

Installer

Call-centre Agent

Surveyor / Assessors

5. Smart Cities of the Future Architecture Overview
Inventory Provisioning - Level 3

Inventory Provisioning

PRODUCTINF
O

ORDER
PRODUCTS

PRODUCT
CATALOGUE

Surveyor / Assessors

PRODUCT
INVENTORY

Installation Planner

MANAGE
PAYMENT

PAYMENTS

Store mant

ALLOCATE
PRODUCTS

PRODUCT
ALLOCATION

DELIVER
PRODUCTS

DELIVERY
INSTRUCTIONS

Installer

6. Smart Cities of the Future Architecture Overview
Warranty and Contract Management - Level 3

Warranty and Contract Management (Post-installation)
Post Install
Support

Manage
Post Install
Support Product

CONTRACT
DATABASE

SERVICE INFO

PRODUCT
iNFO

PRODUCT
CATALOGUE

ORDER
PRODUCTS

MANAGE
PAYMENT

PRODUCT
INVENTORY

ALLOCATE
PRODUCTS

DELIVER
PRODUCTS

PRODUCT
ALLOCATION

DELIVERY
INSTRUCTIONS

TRADE
REGISTER

SKILLS
MATRIX

SERVICE
ACCESS

SERVICE
PROVISION

SERVICE
DELIVERY

SERVICE
MANAGER

TRADE
DIRECTORY

TRADE
CERTIFICATION

DIARY &
APPOINTMENTS

WORKS
ORDERS

INSTALLATION
DATABASE

SERVICE
REPORTS

Manage
Post Install
Finance Plan

FINANCE
PLAN

Close GD
Finance Plan

SERVICE
DATA

Home Owner

Call-centre Agent

Surveyor / Assessor

Installer

7. Smart Cities of the Future Architecture Overview
Shared Services - Level 1

Shared Services
Finance
SYSTEMS

HR SYSTEMS

Call-centre Agent

Planning
SYSTEMS

Reporting
SYSTEMS

Installation Planner

QUALITY
SYSTEMS

IN-BOUND
DATA
MANAGER

SUPPORT
SYSTEMS

Surveyor / Assessor

e-GOVERNMENT
PORTAL

FINANCIAL
SERVICES
COMPLIANCE

Installer

Smart Energy

Enterprise 2.0 – Supply / Demand Model
Side 1:
Upstream Customers

Side 2:
Downstream Customers

Developers
Retailers
Government

Supply Side

Media

Millions of
Customers

$

Telco

$

Thousands of
Segments

Demand Side

Advertisers
Utilities
Financial
Services

© 75
Colin Mallett – Trusted Renewables

© Hatfield Consortium 2012

Smart Energy


Smart Energy – under the provisions of the Energy Act, 2008 (UK), from 2012, every
new Energy Supply Contract will be monitored by a Smart Meter - which can profile
consumer’s consumption with great accuracy. This Profile Information will be collected
via the Smart Grid and aggregated to produce very precise Demand Models which in turn
will allow Energy Suppliers to negotiate their energy supply contracts with Generators.



The ability to understand and exploit the changed Energy Market dynamics under the
Energy Act, 2008, will be a key differentiator between winners and losers in the Smart
Homes and Energy Markets of the future. The capabilities of Energy Suppliers, each with
a slightly differing propensity to manage vast quantities of Energy Data, will vary. This, in
turn, will cause an imbalance in the market between Suppliers with very accurate
Demand Models - and those with imperfect, inconsistent or incomplete Demand Models.
This will threaten “savvy” Suppliers far less than poor performers. Those imperceptibly
small differences in starting conditions will, over time, become greatly exaggerated. Even
a marginal differential in the ability to compete in the Energy Market will, as time passes;
result in an increasing performance disparity between Energy Market Participants.

Smart Household Information –
Supply / Demand Model
Side 1:
Upstream Customers

Side 2:
Downstream Customers

Developers
Retailers
Millions of
Households
Thousands of
Segments

Government

£

Mediation
platform

£

Stakeholders

Media
Advertisers
Utilities
Financial
Services

The Internet

77

© Colin Mallett – Trusted Renewables
© Hatfield Consortium 2012

Smart Energy


In any Threat Scenario - there are always winners as well as losers. This will affect
different Energy Suppliers in different ways. In the event of any future Global Energy
Crisis various market participants will be exposed to different levels of Trading Risk.



As an example, War in the Middle East impacting on the availability of European energy
supplies - the French Government will influence EDF to prioritise French consumers
over British, by suspending transmission of spare generation capacity to support for the
UK Energy Gap via the Interlink between the French and British National Grids. This
threat will impact on “savvy” Suppliers far less than on poor or marginal performers.



The following EU / UK Government Programmes will provide opportunities for add-on
Value Added sales of Smart Home Security, Automation and Entertainment Systems: Department of Energy and Climate Change
- UK Nuclear Energy Programme
- UK Smart Metering Programme
- Green Deal Programme

Department of Business, Industry and Skills
- Care in the Community
- Assisted Living at Home (ALIP)
- Eco-funding Programme

Smart Household Information Brokering Platform
Upstream Organisations
Stakeholder

Stakeholder

Brokering
Trusted
Renewables
Platform

Stakeholder

Stakeholder

Mediation
Platform

Stakeholder

Smart household

Service/
content
providers,
utilities etc

Stakeholder

Appliances, meters
and transducers
sending information to
the mediation platform

Stakeholder

The Internet

©79 Colin Mallett – Trusted Renewables

© Hatfield Consortium 2012

Smart Metering

Business Transformation Framework

Nigel Tebbutt – Solution Design Group

SMART Metering Online


Smart Metering and Smart Grids will
transform the way that we manage energy
and move data. DECC’s Smart Metering
Programme will roll out Smart Meters to 26
million homes across the UK by 2019. Smart
Meters - when used with other smart devices
and home equipment - promise to help save
energy, cut costs to consumers and utilities
alike, and reduce carbon emissions.



There are, however, some complex logistical
and technological challenges regarding the
installation of 100,000s of meters every
month and the ongoing support of over 52
million units on completion. Winning the
support of consumers will also be vital to the
programme’s success –by providing valueadded services to improve the quality and
reduce the cost of Home Energy, Security,
Communications and Entertainment.

Business Objectives


Use Smart Metering as market changing opportunity that is value-driven
rather than price-driven



Ability to segment and drive appropriate customers from high cost to
low cost channels and use self service processing through multiple
interactive access channels



More engaged, loyal and valuable customers –




82



Many mainstream Energy Suppliers are currently over-indexing on older /
less affluent customer segments

Attract younger, more technically savvy customers


Improve positive customer interactions, journey and experience

Accurate monthly billing – platform for smart metering

Business Objectives


Enhance the customer offer, journey and experience – in order to
provide control and certainty for our monthly billing customers: –









83

We ll e i d ou
We ll o fi st aight a a
Help you save energy
Great online support
Paperless communications with you
Call centre and paper bills available but with nominal charge
Value added energy services such as consumption history, high
consumption alerts, account alerts

Fewer Cancel / Re-bill Events, reduce calls through process and
systems improvement (i.e.: Smart and SMS meter read submissions,
instant confirmation, payment process update and notifications)

Business Benefits

84

Smart Meter Benefits
In-home display

Smart meters will come with a small monitor called an in-home display that shows households how
much energy they are using, what its costs and the carbon dioxide emissions it relates to. This will make
it easier for households to manage their energy usage for example by varying which appliances are
used and at what times.
The end of estimated bills

Smart meters will mean the end of estimated bills. Energy bills will be accurate as they will be based on
information read remotely from smart meters. This also means that customers will no longer have to
wait in to have meters read. Home moves and change of energy supplier will also be easier and quicker
with smart metering. Furthermore, customers and energy suppliers will be able to see at the same time
the same information about consumption, prices and costs, which will help with query resolution.
Real-time information

Providing real-time consumption and cost information to customers will help them to budget and avoid
unexpected bills and potentially debt. Smart meters will also be switchable between credit and prepay
without a meter exchange, further increasing customer choice. Prepay customers will see particular
advantages in the new choices available for making payments – for example topping up meters via
mobile phones or the web.
New tariff structures

Smart meters will help suppliers to better understand their customers and design products and services
to meet their needs. This will include new tariff structures such as time-of-use tariffs that will encourage
customers to shift their consumption from costly (and more carbon intensive) 'peak' to off-peak times.

Smart Meter Benefits
Benefits for distributors

Energy distributors will also benefit as the information provided by smart meters will help them to
monitor energy across their networks and manage network load more effectively.
Home-generated power

Smart metering will support micro-generation by enabling easy monitoring and billing adjustments
for home-generated power exported to the national grid. This will support solar power and a new
generation of fuel cell boilers which would run on gas and, in addition to heating water, would
generate power for the home.
Information for customers

In the meantime, more conventional energy efficiency activities will be steadily chipping away at our
energy consumption, as we better insulate our homes, and swap-out older inefficient electrical and
gas appliances for high efficiency ones. Smart metering will show customers the benefits of having
taken these actions, and boost their receptivity to further action.


Ultimately smart meters should lead to a reduction of energy consumption and of carbon dioxide
emissions. This will help our impact on climate change, whilst significantly improving customer
satisfaction as we move away from estimated bills and streamline our core billing and payment
processes.

Core Customer Benefits








87

Pay for what I use on a monthly basis - consumer choice and certainty







No more estimated bills
No more unexpected costs
No huge credit and debit situations - Money management / budgeting responsibility back to
customers
Control & certainty back to customers
Range of tariffs

Easy to deal with your Energy Supplier





It s all o li e, i fo atio o de a d a d a essi le a
he e
Reminders to help me manage key events (billing, meter reads etc)
Simple automated transactions via multiple platforms (SMS, Email, web, mobile etc)
Debit / credit card details stored, no need to enter every time

Helps me save energy and money





Energy usage monitor
Consumption history
High consumption alerts
Energy savers report

Great customer support





Great online self-resolution support
Great email support
Web chat support
Call centre (charged) but with greater SLAs

SMART Programme Scope


In scope









SMART Proposition restricted to online customers only
Self-Service Provisioning, Tariff and Account Management
Automatic Tariff Switching for customers in default
Monthly Actual Meter Reading, Billing and Payment
Customer Selection of Preferred Contact / Payment Methods



Customer Self-Service Meter Readings and Payments


88

SMS Meter Readings and Payment Reminders / Alerts

All contacts via online or digital multi-media channels - no correspondence
encouraged via white mail or e-mail




Customer Preferred Contact Method
Customer Preferred Payment Method

Except Debt Recovery – for statutory / legal reasons

Call centre and paper bills available - with nominal usage fee

SMART Programme Scope


In scope








89

Enhanced online customer service support – Email customer care, live chat,
k o ledge ase, ho -to a ti les a d ideos
Provision of energy consumption monitoring devices (CERT?)


Internet Energy Data Management desirable but not mandatory

Live Web-chat with customer service support staff


Internet Home Energy Advisor desirable but not mandatory

Extended availability of self service platforms to SMART TARIFF customers (24 x
7 non-stop access)
Multi-channel / multi-platform customer own meter read (COR) submission
(IVR, SMS, Online, Mobile)
Proactive consumption alerts and notifications for process updates / service
notifications / confirmations via multiple-platform customer-preferred media
Simple payment authorization (i.e. debit or credit card details - managed online
to enable monthly variable payments)

SMART Programme Scope


Out-of-scope




Off-line channel customers
On-line Live Chat / Webinar with Energy Experts
Options not required for this initial phase: •









90

Internet Energy Data Management - Web Integration for Smart Meter
Energy Consumption Monitoring device
Co petito Ta iffs / I te et Best Bu Co pa iso s
Internet Home Energy Advisor
Internet Surveys and Polls
Smart Devices Integration
Customer Profiling
Internet Shopping
On-line Forum
Energy Blogs

Smart Programme - To-be Model
SMART

91

Smart Metering

Customer Experience and Journey.....

Nigel Tebbutt – Solution Design Group

Key customer experience journeys
Customer Discovery

Overview

93

Join

Consume
& Pay

Support/
communication

Make
change

Move-off
tariff

Key customer experience journeys
Customer Discovery

Join

Consume
& Pay

Support/
communication

Make
change

• Customer Discovery
– Triggering the Consumer need - ATL / BTL marketing

• Join
– Simple / accurate join process (consumer)

• Consume and Pay
– Self Service Principles
– Meter Read Request and Validation
– Monthly bill – production, out-sort check and notification

• Support and Communications
– Self Service: - Transaction and Consumption History
– Online customer support
94

Move-off
tariff

Customer Discovery
Customer Discovery

Join

Consume
& Pay

Support /
communications.

Make
change



Triggering the Consumer Need



Best Plan Calculator – on-li e ia I ter et Marketi g…





Affiliates (third party sites)
Energy Suppliers - Field Sales Enablement
Pricing




Eligibility Criteria
Terms and Conditions

95

– ATL / BTL Internet Marketing
– Smart Metering information

– Anonymous version (i.e. user not logged in)
– Identified version (i.e. user logged in and identified)
– BPC discounts – must be transparent

– Core Energy Pricing (Phase 1)
– Miscellaneous Pricing

Move-off
tariff

Join
Customer Discovery









96

Join

Consume
& Pay

Support /
communications.

Make
change

Simple / accurate join process (consumer)
Join channels




Primary channel: - Online - dedicated Internet website
Secondary channels: - Phone, field sales
Tertiary channel: - SMS short code

Check eligibility
Agree terms and conditions
Customer select payment method
Customer select alert preferences




Reminders
Confirmations
Consumption alerts

Move-off
tariff

Consume & Pay
Customer Discovery







97

Join

Consume
& Pay

Support /
communications.

Make
change

Self Service Principles





Reminders
Confirmations
Alerts
Dual fuel customers

Meter Read Request and Validation




Primary channel: - Online - dedicated Internet website
Secondary channels: - SMS, Email
Tertiary channels: - Phone, White Mail

Monthly bill – production, out-sort check and notification




Reminders
Confirmations
Consumption alerts

Move-off
tariff

Support and Communications
Customer Discovery



Consume
& Pay

Support /
communications

Make
change

Move-off
tariff

Self Service: - Transaction and Consumption History





Transaction History
Consumption History

Online customer support








98

Join

Self-Service (Knowledge base)
Customer contact history
Enhanced Email Support
Smart Metering customer web chat (Smart Metering customers only)
Customer Support Call Centre (charged)
Self Service (White mail request)
Email validation

Record Change
Customer Discovery



99

Consume
& Pay

Support /
communications.

Self-Service: –









Join

Changes of occupancy details
Changes to personal details
Change communications method
Change payment method
Change payment date preferences
Request Cancel / Re-bill

Home Move
Smart Metering

Make
change

Move-off
tariff

Move-off Tariff
Customer Discovery



100

Consume
& Pay

Self-Service: –







Join

Change of Tariff Package
Request Cancel / Re-bill
Change of Supplier
Request Final Bill

Home Move
Smart Metering

Support /
communications.

Make
change

Move-off
tariff

Monthly Billing Timeline

101

Monthly Billing – the challenge


Billing Cycle



Bill Trigger



Meter Reading Precedence



Cancel / Re-bill

102

– Quarterly Billing produces four bills per annum
– Monthly Billing will produce twelve bills per annum
– Quarterly Billing is triggered by a Meter Reading Event
– Monthly Billing will be triggered by Monthly Bill Date
– Quarterly Billing orders MRA Meter Reading Type primary for Billing
– Monthly Billing will order Customer Own Reading as the primary Meter Reading Type
for Monthly Billing

– Quarterly Billing will Cancel / Re-bill if an out-of-tolerance Meter Reading with a Meter
Reading Type of a higher precedence is received after the Invoice has been sent
– Monthly Billing will normally carry over Credit Balances to the next Billing Period
unless a Change Event is pending (e.g. Final Bill, Change of Tariff, Change of Occupancy
etc.)

Smart Grid

Smart Grid
Home Area Network (HAN)
Advanced Meter Infrastructure (AMI)
Master Data Unification & Synchronization (MDUS)
UK Central Communication Provider (CCP)
UK Data Communication Company (DCC)

Smart Grid

Smart Grid - Connecting and Integrating


The Smart Grid is now connecting and integrating every aspect of the global
economy – both in the public sector and private industry. Global enterprises
generate enormous volumes of transactional data – capturing trillions of
bytes of information from the external supply chain – global markets,
customers and suppliers – and from their own internal business operations.
– SENSE LAYER – Remote Viewing, Monitoring and Control – WHAT and WHEN?
– GEO-DEMOGRAPHIC LAYER – People and Places – WHO and WHERE?
– INFORMATION LAYER – Big Data a d Data “et

ashi g – HOW?

– SERVICE LAYER – Real-time Analytics – WHY?
– COMMUNICATION LAYER – Mobile Enterprise Platforms (MEAP) and the Smart Grid

– INFRASTRUCTURE LAYER – Cloud Service Platforms

Smart Grid

Smart Grid - Connecting and Integrating


SENSE LAYER – Remote Monitoring and Control – WHAT and WHEN?
– Remote Sensing – Sensors, Monitors, Detectors, Smart Appliances / Devices
– Remote Viewing – Satellite. Airborne, Mobile and Fixed HDCCTV
– Remote Monitoring, Command and Control – SCADA



GEO-DEMOGRAPHIC LAYER – People and Places – WHO and WHERE?
– Person and Social Network Directories - Personal and Social Media Data
– Location and Property Gazetteers - Building Information Models (BIM)
– Mapping and Spatial Analysis - Topology, Landscape, Global Positioning Data



INFORMATION LAYER – Big Data a d Data “et

ashi g – HOW?

– Content – Structured and Unstructured Data and Content
– Information – Atomic Data, Aggregated, Ordered and Ranked Information
– Transactional Data Streams – Smart Devices, EPOS, Internet, Mobile Networks

Smart Grid

Smart Grid - Connecting and Integrating


SERVICE LAYER – Real-time Analytics – WHY?







Global Mapping and Spatial Analysis
Service Aggregation, Intelligent Agents and Alerts
Data Analysis, Data Mining and Statistical Analysis
Optical and Wave-form Analysis and Recognition, Pattern and Trend Analysis

COMMUNICATION LAYER – Mobile Enterprise Platforms and the Smart Grid
– Connectivity - Smart Devices, Smart Apps, Smart Grid
– Integration - Mobile Enterprise Application Platforms (MEAPs)
– Backbone – Wireless and Optical Next Generation Network (NGE) Architectures



INFRASTRUCTURE LAYER – Cloud Service Platforms





Public, Mixed / Hybrid, Enterprise, Private, Secure and G-Cloud Cloud Models
Infrastructure – Network, Storage and Servers
Applications – COTS Software, Utilities, Enterprise Services
Security – Principles, Policies, Users, Profiles and Directories, Data Protection

UK Smart Grid Communication Spine


The UK Central Communication Provider (CCP) Demonstration is a Proof-ofconcept demonstration based on networking multiple, geographically distributed
Smart Communities with multiple Smart Homes – each of which will be integrated
with all of the Smart Devices, Appliances, Sensors and Detectors featured in the
demonstration Smart Households of the Future Programme. In addition to
supporting technology integration trials, the Proposal is designed to develop
interactive smart energy management tools, intuitive household information
displays and define baseline message standards for Smart Homes and Smart
Devices to access the UK DCC data management and service broker platform –
within, across and beyond, the Smart Grids creating our Smart Cities of the Future



The UK Data Communication Company (DCC) Demonstration is a second
Proof-of-concept trial for demonstration of the prospective UK Energy Market Data
Provider Licence Bid – based on collecting and aggregating vast quantities of data
from multiple, geographically distributed Smart Communities each with multiple
Smart Homes – collecting data streams from multiple, geographically distributed
Smart Communities and feeding Financial (Energy Consumption) Data via the
Smart Grid to the Advanced Meter Infrastructure (AMI) Head-end Servers - as well
as streaming non-Financial (Household and Environmental) Data to the Cloud for
Remote Monitoring and Control, Home Automation, with Real-time / Predicative
Analytics for Carbon Footprint Management and Energy Demand Forecasting.

Smart Homes
Use your Smart Phone...,,
..... to manage your Smart Home


“e e i the loud li ked to s a t
devices in smart homes via smart grid
– Can be accessed anytime, anywhere
– Must be robust and secure



Server holds household information
– Web-enabled home devices
– Device and sensor clients

Smart House

Intelligent Buildings

Smart Grids








BT, one of the UK’s largest corporations, has
partnered with energy utility Scottish Power to
explore the practicalities of smart metering and
smart grids. The initial pilot began this year (2012)
in Suffolk with 1,000 Smart Meter installations
rolled out by Meter Operators, Siemens Metering
Services (SMS) – part of Siemens Energy .
BT is part of the SmartReach Demonstration
Project, located in Ipswich. The scheme has 1000
customers located across towns such as Ipswich,
Woodbridge, Hintlesham and Martlesham.
"It is about providing customers with information,
technology and processes to manage their carbon
footprint and improve home energy efficiency” –
says Chris Amos., Director at BT SmartReach.
"BT SmartReach will be able to demonstrate how
the Smart Grid and other emerging technologies
can improve the reliability of power delivery and
provide customers with greater control over their
carbon footprint and energy consumption.“

Use your Smart Phone to
manage your Smart Home

Smart Grids
WIDE-AREA COVERAGE AND CONSUMER ENGAGEMENT
• Unlike other networks (that may typically achieve only 70% to 80% national coverage)
BT SmartReach uses a single, dedicated, long-range radio (LRR) communications
technology that is proven to reach 99%+ of Smart Meters situated in their current
locations. This universal coverage helps to avoid the costs associated with preinstallation surveys, relocation of meters, repeat visits for utilities and the use of “special
solutions” such as external antennas mounted on consumers’ homes. Getting simple
installations right first time, every time will also deliver a positive customer experience.
REALISING EVEN GREATER POTENTIAL CARBON, COST AND ENERGY SAVINGS
• The successful installation of smart meters is only the first step. SmartReach provides
reliable, secure communications, connecting to smart meters in every home throughout
their lifetime, so that people can access the information they need, when they need it. As
smart metering develops into smart grids, SmartReach is the standards based
communications choice that can meet future needs. It can connect to other devices in
the future wherever they are located in the low voltage network or at sub-stations.
Messages used to control smart grid devices need to be delivered at speed – a feature
of SmartReach. The SmartReach solution is also flexible enough to meet expanding
volumes of data over time; allowing for new services to be added in as needs evolve.

Smart Grids


SmartReach is the dedicated smart metering communications solution based on
Long Range Radio (LRR). It provides a high quality, secured, wide area network
(WAN) service connecting smart meters in homes across Great Britain - wherever
they are located. SmartReach is also flexible enough to handle all known current
and future requirements, including further development of Smart Grids - without
the need for significant investment in new infrastructure. SmartReach is: – Dedicated: ‘Utility Grade’ standards-based communications solution using dedicated
broadcast spectrum so that Smart Meter and Grid Data do not compete for bandwidth
with other information flows
– Secure, private network with leading-edge security measures designed to protect
against malicious attacks
– Universal: SmartReach enables near-universal coverage (the same footprint as for
Radio and Television Signals) for Smart Meters and Grid Devices – wherever located
– Resilient: designed to be always-on and available 24/7 SmartReach operates with no
single point of network failure - via multiple communication routes with each device and
has the flexibility to adapt to changing requirements over time
– Proven: SmartReach is based on long-range radio, which is already connecting over 10
million end-points in North America, across an area three times the size of Great Britain
– SmartReach offers the most resilient and flexible solution - today and into the future......

Smart Grid

Data layer

Database

(SQL server
2008)

Service layer
Engine

(.net/C#)

Data Bus
Interface layer

End-2-end Smart Grid Solution
Customer
Home
HOME
HUB

Advanced Meter
Infrastructure
(AMI)
Head-end
Server

Master Data
Unification &
Synchronization
(MDUS)

Billing
Systems

Trilliant

OsiSoft

SAP

HOME
AREA
NETWORK
(HAN)

Zigbee

Z-wave

Landis & Gyr

UK Central Communication Provider
(CCP)
What does the UK CCP do?
• CCP is responsible for building and operating a digital infrastructure
• CCP works on defined meter data and communication infrastructure standards
• CCP is a lean. focused organization enabling interoperability in a competitive energy market

AMI - Technology Overview
Retail

Premise Equipment
Home Area Network

+ Meter & Communications Infrastructure
+ Meter& Event Data Management
= Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI)

Meter Data
Unification &
Synchronizat.
System

Marketing & Sales
Customer Service
Billing

Customer

Demand
Response
Mgmt
System

Outage
Mgmt
System

GIS;
Field
Order
Mgmt
System

Demand
Customer
Response
Interface
Mgmt

CIS

Billing
Determinants
Generation
Meter Data
Repository
Distribution
Revenue
Planning &
Protection
Operation
Load
Install.
Forecast
&
&
Maint.
Settlement
Outage
Mgmt

Asset Mgmt
& Install. Planning;
Field Order Mgmt
Systems

Load
Forecasting
& Settlement
System

SAP

SAP

Utilities Customer Generic

Enterprise
Energy
Extensions
Applications
Asset
Relationship
Capital
“IS-U” ManagementManagement
Management

& Billing
Enterprise
Management
& Business Support

SAP for Utilities
Business Process Platform

Consumer Endpoint
Products Devices
Integration
with home
devices.
Provides
platform for
marketing
messages
and new
services.

HAN

“Smart”
Meter

Measures,
collects,
Devices in
Transmits
transmits
the home
data
that can be
between the and stores
end-user
remotely
meter and
consumption.
updated and premise
Can be
controlled by devices.
remotely
the utility.
Connected
No defined configured.
to meter via standards. Meter Vendors:
Cannon, Elster,
gateway
GE, Goerlitz,
Meter2Cash,
Hager, Itron,
Landis & Gyr,
PMI, Sensus, etc

PLC, RF
Zigbee

Wide
Local
Area
AMI
Area
Concentrator
Network Head End
Network
(WAN)
(LAN)

MDUS*

Central
repository for
Collects, stores Transmits
Transmits
Controls
meter&event
data between and transmits
Meter &
data
data collected
messages to
meters and
Communic.
between
from all AMI
the collector. and from
concentrator Infrastructure
Head Ends.
multiple meter and utility
Solution
Dispatches
points.
specific
Manages
head end.
AMI Head
Solutionprotocols.
Meter &
Solution
Ends.
specific
Emerging
Event Data
specific
Can be
devices.
standards.
and forwards
protocols.
accessed by
RF Vendors:
BPL Vendors:
to MDUS
all apps
CellNet, Elster,
Ambient,
Itron, Sensus,
Amperion,
responsible
Trilliant PLC
Corinex Comm,
for processing
Vendors: Cannon,
Current
this data
DCSI, Hunt
Technologies
PLC, RF,
GPRS, SMS

GPRS

Internet

Integration of
• Marketing&Sales
• Customer Service
• Billing
• EAM
to MDUS.
System of Record
for all customer and
commercial data
and the related
processes that
leverage AMI.

Most end-to-end
processes are
either directly or
indirectly initiated
by the customer
and are the
consequence of
or result in
customer
services or have
an impact on the
customers bill
(supply contract)

Smart Energy Systems Management
Trusted Renewables:

Jeff Goddard
Strategic Alliances Director @ Ingenera
Nigel Tebbutt
奈杰尔 泰巴德
Future Business Models & Emerging Technologies @ Ingenera
Adam Kent
Founder and MD @ enado
Trusted Renewables: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework ©

Planned SAP for Utilities Roadmap 20082010
Investment
Opportunity

AMI
Smart Grids
Energy
Efficiency

Deregulation
Unbundling

2008

 Joint Energy Data Mgmt. (MDUS
Integration)
 AMI Disconnect / Reconnect

 Service Enablement of the IDEinfrastructure
 Enterprise services and
functionalities required for market
communication

 Sending and Receiving of
Consumption information
 Communication with external
Metering Companies
 Infrastructure Enablement

 Sending and Receiving of
Consumption information
(cont.)
 Request of Services and
Billing of Services (Retailer)

 Product Bundles
 Ext. Financial Customer Service
 Ext. Dispute & Collections Mgmt
 Energy Portfolio Mgmt (SAP CD ACS)

 Financial Customer Service
(completion)
 Dispute & Collections Mgmt
 Simplified Modeling of Energy
Products
 New e-Services for Utilities;
e-Commerce for Utilities (Web
Channel)
 Energy Ledger (tool set)

Market

Customer
Relationship
Mgmt

2010

 Meter Reading Energy
Consumption
 Enabling & Integrating Backend to
AMI
 Information Exchange
(Master Data Synchronization)

Communication

Competitive
Energy Retail

2009

 Enhanced Sales & Service
(process support through new
ICWC technology)
 Enterprise Service Bundle
 C&I Sales
 Portfolio Mgmt (SAP CD ACS)

 AMI extended Device Mgmt

 Grid usage validation and payment
processing – enhanced monitoring
capIngeneraes (BPEM)

Statement of direction for
 Mgmt ofofNon-Energy
Data -Event
alignment
portfolio requirements
 Joint Energy Data Mgmt. (cont.)

 Prepayment
 Demand Response
 Forecasting and Analytics
 AMI enabled Outage Mgmt

 Billing of Services (Metering
Company)
 Improved performance of grid
usage payment processing

Planned SAP for Utilities Roadmap 2008-2010
2008
Customer
Relationship &
Billing

 UCES Enhancements (UCES for
Payment Plan, Promise2Pay etc.)

2009
 Improved User Productivity

2010
 Improved User Productivity
(continued)
 AMI based Fast Track Billing

Statement of direction for
alignment of portfolio requirements

Assets Mgmt
for Generation
and
Transmission&
Distribution

Sourcing &
Procurement
Enterprise
Management
(FIN and HR)

Plant and Asset Mgmt
Maintenance Cost Budgeting
enhancements
Inspection Rounds
Rotables and Subcontracting
Completion of ES Bundle
Energy Management

 Improved Cash and Liquidity
forecasting / reporting
 Biller Direct – FI-CA integration
 New GL Enhancements
 Functionality available is aligned
with ERP HR Roadmap

EAM Simplification for Maintenance
Workers
Maintenance Cost Budgeting
continued
Inspection Rounds extended
Incident Management
Energy Management extensions
Operational Level Costing (SAP CD
ACS)
Procurement contracts for
hierarchical services

Harmonized user experience for
end-to-end service procurement

Catalogs integration for services
procurement (PM/PS)

Functionality available is aligned
with ERP HR Roadmap

EAM Simplification continued
Asset Performance Mgmt
Linear Asset Management
Incident Prevention
Process Safety Management
Emissions Certificate Trading
Smart Asset Platform
Central contract repository including
search and navigation for users
outside procurement and legal
contract authoring integration
Bid evaluation and optimization

Corporate timetable (jointly with FPM)
Unstructured Data (jointly with FPM)

Monetize ERP Audit Content via GRC
ERP Content

SAP Proposals – the problems

Ingenera

• Complexity
• Timescales

• Risk – Internal / External
• Total Cost-of-Ownership (TCO)

Trusted Renewables:: Strategic Enterprise Management (SEM) Framewor

SAP Proposal Threat Assessment
• Did you know that there are.....
– Rarely issues with: • SAP Software?

– Occasional issues with: • Infrastructure and Integration Architecture?

– Often issues with: • Proposal and Project Management?
• Stakeholder Communications and Relationship Management?

– Frequent issues with: • Business Process Management?
• SAP Functional Alignment with the Business Operating Model?

– Always issues achieving: • Benefits Realisation Strategy?
• Business Performance Improvement?

Ingenera

SAP Proposal Risk


Proposal Risk







External Dependencies
Resources and Prioritization
Financials – Funding and Budget Allocation
Timeline – Constraints, Dependencies, Milestones and Deliverables
Configuration Management – People, Process and Technology Change
Internal and External Compliance: –
• Architecture Governance
• Security Principles, Policies and Standards
• Legislative, Statutory and Regulatory Compliance

– Customer Acceptance and Satisfaction, Benefits Realisation



Operational Risk



Systemic Risk

– Internal Threats / Changes in Direction – Business Strategy, Executive
Sponsorship, Financials & HR, Project Change, Delay and Cancellation

– External Threats – Military, Political, Legislative, Regulatory, Economic,
Industrial, Social, Climatic, Environmental and Ecological Threats

Ingenera

SAP Proposals – the challenge


Business Transformation Proposals – SAP-centric Business
Transformation Proposals and their associated Processes, Enterprise
Services, SAP Applications and Integration Architecture are very
complex, high cost / high risk investments - and are becoming
increasingly difficult to understand and manage. They encompass a
huge mass of detail and depend upon the success of a large number
of embedded, mission-critical business and technology decisions.
• Complexity

• Timescales
• Risk – Internal / External
• Total Cost-of-Ownership (TCO)
Detailed Agile SAP Presentation Available on Request

Ingenera

SAP Proposals – the solution

Ingenera



Agile SAP Methods / Architecture – There is an overarching responsibility
to understand the many impacts of each of these decisions and get them
right first time via Agile Architectures and Frameworks – or run the risk of
potentially catastrophic business interruption or failure should we get
these decisions wrong.



Agile SAP Development – using a structured Service-oriented Architecture
Framework guides us successfully through the process of architecting,
designing and delivering Agile SAP Processes – and developing Enterprise
Services via the Enterprise Service Bus.
• Business Agility
• Shorter Timescales
• Lower Risk – Internal / External
• Reduced Total Cost-of-Ownership (TCO)
Detailed Agile SAP Presentation Available on Request

Which SOA Framework do I use?


Ingenera

There are a wide choice of SOA Frameworls: -h may be deployed as follows: – SAP ECC6 Enterprise SOA

• For Homogeneous Agile SAP Integration Environment
• SAP NetWeaver Enterprise Portal / Pi

– SME – SAP Business One / SAP-by-Design

• For Small-to-Medium Enterprise Agile SAP Integration
• Best integration – Domain Systems Link-to-SAP Adaptor
• Least Total Cost of Ownership – Microsoft BizTalk

– Mixed SAP and Oracle Heterogeneous Landscape

• Best Oracle and SAP COTS Agile Integration – Oracle Fusion
• e.g. SAP IS/Utilities Billing with Oracle CRM

– Mixed SAP and 3rd Party COTS Heterogeneous Landscape





For Best-of-breed e-commerce Process Orchestration and Integration for Agile SAP
Best-of-breed COTS £ SAP Agile Integration – IBM WebSphere, Encina, WebMethods, Tibco
Best-of-breed e-commerce platform - ATG Dynamo, BT Contact Central, Graham Technologies GTX
e.g. SAP ERP Financials with Telco Mediation, Rating and Billing and Oracle CRM

Detailed Agile SAP Presentation Available on Request
Trusted Renewables: Strategic Enterprise Management (SEM) Framework ©

SAP NetWeaver Process Integration


Ingenera

SAP NetWeaver Process Integration (SAP NetWeaver PI) is used as follows: – The system architecture of SAP NetWeaver PI 7.1 is based on an existing and
established integration architecture for realizing cross-system business processes and is the same as in lower releases (SAP NetWeaver 7.0 Process Integration and
SAP XI 3.0 as part of SAP NetWeaver 2004).
– SAP NetWeaver PI 7.1 plays an important role in supporting an enterprise serviceoriented architecture (Enterprise SOA). The focus is on the service-based
integration of applications.
– SAP NetWeaver PI is based on general standards so as to enable 3rd-party
systems to be easily integrated. At the center of SAP NetWeaver PI is an XMLbased communication that uses HTTP (Hyper Text Transfer Protocol). Irrespective
of the scenario used, the application-specific contents are transferred in messages
in user-defined XML (the eXtensible Markup Language) from the sender to the
receiver - either via the Integration Server - or directly between the systems
involved.

Trusted Renewables: Strategic Enterprise Management (SEM) Framework ©

SAP NetWeaver Process Integration


Ingenera

The following figure gives an overview of the key qualities / capIngeneraes of
SAP NetWeaver Process Integration (SAP NetWeaver PI) : -

SOA Framework - Enterprise Service Bus

Ingenera

An Enterprise Service Bus (ESB) should provide a standard routing mechanism for a loosely coupled
asynchronous Service-oriented Architecture (SoA). It would also allow complex transformation of the
messages as needed, as well as provide an interface to integrate across different non standard interfaces.

Figure 1: Diagram showing an ESB with different services connected in a message flow.

Services and Adapters for SOA

Ingenera

ESB

Trusted Renewables: Strategic Enterprise Management (SEM) Framework ©

SOA Integrators, Connectors and Adaptors
for SAP








Process Orchestration


Business Process Management (BPM), WorkFlow and e-commerce platforms - such as ATG
Dynamo, IBM WebSphere, Graham Technologies GTX, BEA WebLogic Server, (Oracle Fusion),
Microsoft BizTalk / K2 BlackPearl, Magic Software etc.

Enterprise Service Bus


Discrete business and technology services aggregated as Enterprise Services using Enterprise
Service Bus technology - such as IBM MQ Series Integrator (MQSI), BEA AquaLogic (Oracle
Fusion), Sun SeeBeyond e*Gate, Tibco, Information Builders iWay, Microsoft BizTalk, etc.

Modern Enterprise COTS application systems


Vendor-supplied, proprietary systems with well-defined, often proprietary, collaborative
interfaces - such as SAP Business API / NetWeaver Xi and Pi Adaptors, Oracle e-Business Suite
Adaptor, PeopleSoft ETP Adaptor, JDE Master Business Function Adaptor, etc.

Older Packaged COTS legacy application systems


Written in a variety of procedural and non-procedural languages with well-defined published
Appli atio P og a I te fa es API s fo olla o ati e p o essi g – and functions may also be
appe ed as Dist i uted Co pute E i o e t / ‘e ote P o edu e Calls DCE/‘PC

Trusted Renewables: Strategic Enterprise Management (SEM) Framework ©

SOA Integrators, Connectors and Adaptors
for SAP


Object-oriented applications



Component-based applications



Custom-built heritage applications

Ingenera

– Many discrete classes developed using OOA/D and RUP for OO applications, such
as Smalltalk, PLSQL, C++, C#, .NET Application Servers or CORBA objects - e.g.
Orbix, Bonobo etc.

– Multiple unique applets delivered as component-based applications - such as
E te p ise Ja aBea s™, COM Appli atio “e e s o OMG o po e ts - e.g.
webMethods, Encina etc.

– May be written in a variety of procedural languages but typically do not have very
well-defi ed pu lished Appli atio P og a I te fa es API s fo olla o ati e
processing - fu tio s a e wrappered as Dist i uted Co puti g
Environment / Remote Procedure Calls (DCE/RPC)

Trusted Renewables: Strategic Enterprise Management (SEM) Framework ©

SOA Integrators, Connectors and Adaptors
for SAP






Ingenera

Transaction processing systems


Application systems that run under the control of transaction processing monitors such as
distributed customer information control system (CICS), IMS Transaction Manager
(IMS/TM), BEA Tuxedo and e-link (now Oracle Fusion), Torrent Orchestrate (now
WebSphere) and other TPMS software transactions well suited for incorporation into
collaborative business processes

Database and file systems


Vendor-supplied, proprietary relational database management systems (RDBMSs) and
legacy database management systems (DBMSs), and file systems with varying degrees of
standard and proprietary interfaces including relational (e.g. ODBC, SQL/Server, DB2 / UDB,
Progress, Oracle, mySQL etc.), hierarchical (e.g. IMS), network (e.g. IDMS) and flat file
based (e.g. FAT, NTFS, CFMS, DIF, CDIF, EDIF, ADABAS, ISAM, VSAM, etc.) database
management and file systems

Communication transport protocols and message formats



Industry-standard transports such as hypertext transport protocol (HTTP), file transfer
protocol (FTP), and simple mail transfer protocol (SMTP), Sun Enterprise Java Suite
Adaptor, SOA Protocols such as XML, SOAP, WSDL, JMS, ADO.NET, RNI, JDBC, EJB, ESB etc.
Vendor proprietary messaging and queuing systems in a variety of formats for exchanging
data between applications, such as IBM WebSphere MQSI, Sun JMS, JCA and SeeBeyond
e*Gate, Microsoft BizTalk MSMQ, BEA e-link (Tuxedo – now Oracle Fusion)) adaptors

Trusted Renewables: Strategic Enterprise Management (SEM) Framework ©

SOA Integrators, Connectors and Adaptors


e-Business exchanges





Ingenera

Proprietary and standards-based public and private exchanges through which cross-business
collaboration is facilitated (Kalido, IBM WebSphere Product Centre – WPC)
Proprietary data interchange systems in a variety of formats for exchanging data between
collaborating enterprises, such as Electronic Data Interchange (EDI), Society for the Worldwide
Inter-bank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT)

Application server platforms


Application and integration servers that host all manner of Application Service Provider (ASP)
applications, On-demand Services (e.g. BT Contact Central, Seibel-on-demand) and Software as
a Service (SaaS) applications that facilitate collaboration within and between enterprises



Communication adapters (e.g. SNA, TCP/IP, etc)



Screen-based integration (e.g. 3270, 5250, VT100, Wise)



Office Systems (e.g. OLE etc.) and Email (e.g. SMTP, POP3, IMAP etc.)





GUI – Presentation Services - Enterprise Portal, Graphics Engines
HLAPI (Screen Mapping)
Thin Client (Citrix etc.)

Trusted Renewables: Strategic Enterprise Management (SEM) Framework ©

SAP Business Strategic Alignment









Ingenera

Stakeholder Management



Business Case Development
Benefits Realisation Strategy

Proposal / Project Management




Executive Project Buy-in and Sponsorship
Complexity Level – Scope, Requirements, Functionality
Proposal and Project Planning / Enterprise Portfolio Management


3rd Parties, Constraints, Dependencies, Resources, Timeline, Milestones, Budget

Enterprise Portfolio Management





Business Architecture
Functional Architecture
Infrastructure Architecture
Configuration Management – Baseline Versioning, Change Management

SAP Functionality




Requirements Discovery
Requirements Definition (Blueprint)
Business Operating Model (BOM) Design

Technology Support




Agile, Scrum, Iterative Delivery
CASE Tools and Enterprise Repository
SAP Diagnostics. Analytics, Reporting and Controls

Trusted Renewables: Strategic Enterprise Management (SEM) Framework ©

SAP Diagnostics –
Business Impact Assessment
CASE &
Planning Tools
ARIS
Solution
Options \ Design
Portfolio
Management

Project
Planning

Requirements Models
Function Library
Application Catalogue
Data Models
Solution Options
Solution Designs
Service Repository
Project Planning and
Enterprise Portfolio
Management Data Project

VPN

E-Mail

Service
Registry

SAP
ISU

Specific
Reports

Internet

Architecture
Views
Reportst and
E-Mail

SAP
ERP

Ingenera

CMS

Exchange Server

Configuration &
Services
Customisation Data
Enterprise Repository
Architecture Design Objects





Reporting

Cached
Reports

AD

Processes
Functions
Business Services
Project Portfolio Management…..

Monitoring

Intelligent
Agents
and Alerts
E-mail
template

Smart Energy Data Management
Trusted Renewables:

Ingenera

Jeff Goddard
Strategic Alliances Director @ Ingenera
Nigel Tebbutt
奈杰尔 泰巴德
Future Business Models & Emerging Technologies @ Ingenera
Adam Kent
Founder and MD @ enado

Trusted Renewables: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework ©

Smart Energy Data Management

Ingenera



Trusted Renewables: Smart Grid is one of the fastest growing Smart Energy Data
Management companies in the UK with a newly formed centre of excellence for Smart
Metering and Energy Data Management. We offer a flexible approach from Energy
Consulting and individual Business and IT Project Delivery to complete outsourced endto-end Energy Management solutions for streaming energy data directly from the
internet.



When it comes to innovative Smart Energy Management Solutions, Trusted
Renewables: Smart Grid Consulting is becoming the trusted advisor for a large and
growing community of the world's leading Energy, Oil and Gas and Utility Companies.
Advisory Smart Grid Consulting help organizations across all sectors to launch value
propositions to extract significant business value from the Smart Grid - control energy,
save costs, reduce carbon and to achieve renewable resources and sustainability targets.



Trusted Renewableswork alongside our customers to deliver advanced metering and
energy data management solutions. Our customers and business partners can choose
from complete end-to-end outsourced solutions through to individual services and
consultancy across three key areas — Carbon Management & Energy Saving, Smart
Metering and Energy Data Management, Real-time Analytics and Customer Insight—
in order to enable agile, faster and more informed delivery against carbon and energy

Enterprise Data Cloud™


The E terprise Data Cloud™ is a dedicated server array, or cluster, designed for the
optimisation of parallel load and query of vast amounts of transactional data – such as
Smart Meter Energy Management Data – streamed directly from the internet, via 3G

GSM / 4G or from MVNO connected Routers and Switches.
• Integrated hardware, database and storage device




Inexpensive hardware
Open-source software and database
Low-cost, high-performance solution

• Massively Parallel Processing architecture
• Shared-Nothing implementation
• Maximizes parallelism
• Removes data flow bottlenecks

• Applications




Billing - 1 Energy Consumption Record per Service per Smart Meter per Month
Profiling - 48 Energy Consumption Records per Service per Smart Meter per Day
Energy Management – 1,440 Energy Consumption Records / Service / Meter / Day

Enterprise Data Cloud™


EDC: adaptive infrastructure for data warehousing / real-time analytics
– A single enterprise-wide platform for all your data
• Self-serve provisioning of data warehouses and data marts
• Start small and grow incrementally towards a global scale EDC

– On-site capability with an upgrade path to the public cloud
– Provision, allocate resources and resize data warehouses in minutes
– Enterprise data management with access to all information / content
DBA
Warehouses

40

16

16

120
Free

8

Infrastructure

UK – South
200 nodes

16 16

68
Free

UK – North
100 nodes

96

40

Europe
200 nodes

64
Free

Analyst

Operations

Enterprise Data Cloud™
SQL
Query Governor

Master
Servers

...

...

Query planning &
dispatch

Network
Interconnect

Segment
Servers

...

Query processing
& data storage

External
Sources
Loading,
streaming, etc.

Greenplum MPP (Massively Parallel Processing) Shared-Nothing Architecture

...

Enterprise Data Cloud™

JDBC™
ODBC
SQL/92
OLEDB

High
Speed
Loader

QuickTimeª and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.

Greenplum MPP (Massively Parallel Processing) Shared-Nothing Architecture

Trusted Renewables: Delivery Partners

Ingenera

Hardware
Vendors

BI Tools

Solutions

Business
Partners

Enterprise Data Cloud™

Smart Cities of the Future Review
Trusted Renewables:
Jeff Goddard
Strategic Alliances Director @ Company Alliances
Nigel Tebbutt
奈杰尔 泰巴德
Future Business Models & Emerging Technologies @ Trusted Renewables
Adam Kent
Founder and MD @ enado

Trusted Renewables: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework ©

Smart Cities of the Future


The convergence of Communications and Energy Technologies.....

Telco 2.0 and Energy 2.0 – Agenda
Telco 2.0 Market Participants

Energy 2.0 Market Participants

DEMAND SIDE
• Customers

DEMAND SIDE
• Customers

TELCO SERVICE BROKERS
• Supermarkets
• Mobile Phone Shops

ENERGY SERVICE BROKERS
• Supermarkets
• Price-comparison Internet Sites

TELCO SERVICE PROVISIONING
• Telco Communications Engineers
• Home Entertainment System Installers

ENERGY SERVICE PROVISIONING
• Smart Home and Building Surveyors
• Home Automation System Installers

SUPPLY SIDE
• Communications Package Suppliers
• Value-added Service Providers
• Local Telco Network Providers

SUPPLY SIDE
• Energy Suppliers (Centrica etc.)
• Value-added Service Providers
• Energy Network Providers






Fixed Line Broadband
Mobile 4G Services

Long-distance Telco Network Providers





Satellite
Microwave
Sub-sea Cable
Fibre-optic Backbone







Distribution Service Providers
Transmission Service Providers

Electricity Generators
Energy, Oil and Gas Companies




Oil and Gas Shipping and Storage
Oil and Gas Refining and Trading
Oil and Gas Exploration and Production

Smart Grid - Connecting and Integrating


The Smart Grid is now connecting and integrating every aspect of the global
economy – both in the public sector and private industry. Global enterprises
generate enormous volumes of transactional data – capturing trillions of
bytes of information from the external supply chain – global markets,
customers and suppliers – and from their own internal business operations.
– SENSE LAYER – Remote Viewing, Monitoring and Control – WHAT and WHEN?
– GEO-DEMOGRAPHIC LAYER – People and Places – WHO and WHERE?
– INFORMATION LAYER – Big Data a d Data “et

ashi g – HOW?

– SERVICE LAYER – Real-time Analytics – WHY?
– COMMUNICATION LAYER – Mobile Enterprise Platforms (MEAP) and the Smart Grid

– INFRASTRUCTURE LAYER – Cloud Service Platforms

Smart Grid - Connecting and Integrating


SENSE LAYER – Remote Monitoring and Control – WHAT and WHEN?
– Remote Sensing – Sensors, Monitors, Detectors, Smart Appliances / Devices
– Remote Viewing – Satellite. Airborne, Mobile and Fixed HDCCTV
– Remote Monitoring, Command and Control – SCADA



GEO-DEMOGRAPHIC LAYER – People and Places – WHO and WHERE?
– Person and Social Network Directories - Personal and Social Media Data
– Location and Property Gazetteers - Building Information Models (BIM)
– Mapping and Spatial Analysis - Topology, Landscape, Global Positioning Data



INFORMATION LAYER – Big Data a d Data “et

ashi g – HOW?

– Content – Structured and Unstructured Data and Content
– Information – Atomic Data, Aggregated, Ordered and Ranked Information
– Transactional Data Streams – Smart Devices, EPOS, Internet, Mobile Networks

Smart Grid - Connecting and Integrating


SERVICE LAYER – Real-time Analytics – WHY?







Global Mapping and Spatial Analysis
Service Aggregation, Intelligent Agents and Alerts
Data Analysis, Data Mining and Statistical Analysis
Optical and Wave-form Analysis and Recognition, Pattern and Trend Analysis

COMMUNICATION LAYER – Mobile Enterprise Platforms and the Smart Grid
– Connectivity - Smart Devices, Smart Apps, Smart Grid
– Integration - Mobile Enterprise Application Platforms (MEAPs)
– Backbone – Wireless and Optical Next Generation Network (NGE) Architectures



INFRASTRUCTURE LAYER – Cloud Service Platforms





Public, Mixed / Hybrid, Enterprise, Private, Secure and G-Cloud Cloud Models
Infrastructure – Network, Storage and Servers
Applications – COTS Software, Utilities, Enterprise Services
Security – Principles, Policies, Users, Profiles and Directories, Data Protection

Telco 2.0 – Executive Summary
Telco 2.0 – Introduction


Changes to the Legislative, Business and Technology Landscape will equally create
threats and opportunities for both existing market participants and for new entrants.
The proposed study seeks to understand the impact of those future changes, to be
able to differentiate between future winners and losers – and to prepare Network
Operators and Service Providers to rapidly absorb change in order to be able to
exploit the opportunities presented by Telco 2.0

Telco 2.0 – Drivers
– Telco 2.0 Legislative Drivers – 4G Network Auction, Future Shared Services
– Telco 2.0 Business Drivers – Competition (new MVNO market entrants), Convergence (Fixed
/ Mobile), Consolidation (e.g. Orange and T-mobile)
– Telco 2.0 Technology Drivers – Mobile Broadband Internet and mVoIP, 4G / Edge Fixed-toMobile Convergence, Cloud Computing, Smart Grid, Smart Devices - Windows Phones /
iPhone / Android / Blackberry / PDAs / Notebooks, Ruggedized Terminals, Next Generation
Network (NGN) Architectures, Remote Sensing, Monitoring and Control, Home and
Building Automation, Vehicle Telemetry, Next Generation Enterprise (NGE) Target Business
Operating Models (eTOM), Future Smart Cities and Smart Grids, Mobile Enterprise
Application Platforms (MEAP)

Telco 2.0 – Executive Summary
Telco 2.0 – Background


Over the next ten to fifteen years radical transformation across the European
Telecommunications sector will revolutionise Telecommunications service provision
for both Fixed-line Broadband Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) and Mobile
Network Providers –, Mobile Network Operators (MNO) – and Customer-facing
Mobile Virtual Network Service Providers (MVNSP) – including new market entrants
– as well as for all of the Telecommunications support services – systems integrators
and software vendors, network design-build-operate firms and network equipment
suppliers,



Market participants - including new market entrants and Telco Value-added Services
Resellers – smart home and building automation, remote sensing, monitoring and
control systems installers home security, communications and home entertainment
systems integrators, software vendors, cloud service information providers, energy
saving and environmental protection equipment and domestic appliance suppliers.
energy saving, renewable, sustainable and green energy, Public Sector – NHS and
Social Services – e-Government Services, Vulnerable Citizen Monitoring –
biomedical data streaming / assisted living at home (ALIP) / care in the community

Energy 2.0 – Executive Summary
Energy 2.0 – Introduction


The Changes to the Legislative, Business and Technology Landscape and Convergence of Telco
2.0 and Energy 2.0 will equally create both threats and opportunities alike for existing market
participants as well as new entrants to the Converged Energy and Telco Marketplace. This study
seeks to understand the impact of those future changes, to be able to differentiate between
future winners and losers – and to prepare both Energy Providers and Consumers to absorb
change and exploit opportunities for Energy 2.0

Energy 2.0 – Drivers






Energy 2.0 Legislative Drivers – Smart Meter roll-out over Europe, Carbon Offset Trading, EU
Member State Energy and Environmental Target Setting
Energy 2.0 Business Drivers – European Energy Market – Depletion and Loss of Primary Energy
Sources (Oil and Gas), Loss of Generation Capacity (Coal and Nuclear) Energy Market
Competition, Convergence, Consolidation
Energy 2.0 Technology Drivers – Next Generation Enterprise (NGE) Target Business Operating
Models (eTOM) ,Telco Fixed-to-Mobile Convergence, Cloud Computing, Smart Meters, Smart
Homes and Buildings Automation, Remote Sensing, Monitoring and Control, Home Area
Network (HAN), Advanced Meter Infrastructure (AMI)
Energy 2.0 Telecommunications – Mobile / Broadband Internet and VPN, Smart Grid – 4G /
Edge, Smart Devices – Smart Phones / Pads / PDAs / Notebooks, Smart Apps,

Energy 2.0 – Executive Summary
Energy 2.0 – Background


Over the next ten years radical transformation in the European Energy sector will also
revolutionise Energy service provision for both Gas and Electricity –
– Sustainable Energy Research – Wind, Wave Tidal, Solar, Hydro-electricity, Biomass Oil and
Gas Substitute and Power Generation Technologies
– Oil and Gas Exploration and Production – Enhanced Reservoir Exploitation, Gas and Water
injection, Tar Sands, Shale Gas Fracking, Methane Hydrate
– Oil and Gas Shipping, Energy Trading, Refining and Power Generation,
– Electricity and Gas Storage, Transmission and Distribution Networks
– Energy Supply and Value-added Service Provision



Market participants - including new market entrants and Energy Value-added
Services Resellers – smart home and building automation, remote sensing,
monitoring and control systems installers home security, communications and home
entertainment systems integrators, software vendors, cloud service information
providers, energy saving and environmental protection equipment and domestic
appliance suppliers. energy saving, renewable, sustainable and green energy, Public
Sector – NHS and Social Services – e-Government Services, Vulnerable Citizen
Monitoring – biomedical data streaming / assisted living at home (ALIP) / care in
the community

Ghost in the Machine:
Haunted by Randomness
The Nature of Uncertainty – Randomness
Classical (Newtonian) Physics – apparent randomness is as a result of Unknown Forces
Relativity Theory – any apparent randomness or asymmetry is as a result of Quantum effects
Quantum Mechanics – all events are truly and intrinsically both symmetrical and random
Wave (String) Theory –apparent randomness and asymmetry is as a result of Unknown Forces

Ghost in the Machine.....

Executive Summary - The
Management of Uncertainty


It has long been recognized that one of the most important competitive factors for any
organization to master is the management of uncertainty. Uncertainty is the major intangible
factor contributing towards the risk of failure in every process, at every level, in every type of
business. The way that we think about the future must mirror how the future actually unfolds.
As we have learned from recent experience, the future is not a straightforward extrapolation of
simple, single-domain trends. We now have to consider ways in which the possibility of random,
chaotic and radically disruptive events may be factored into enterprise threat assessment and
risk management frameworks and incorporated into decision-making structures and processes.



Ma age s a d o ga isatio s ofte ai to sta fo used a d ai tai a a o pe spe ti e i
dealing with key business issues, challenges and targets. A concentration of focus may risk
overlooking Weak Signals indicating potential issues and events, agents and catalysts of change.
Such Weak Signals – along with their resultant Wild Card and Black Swan Events - represent
early warning of radically disruptive future global transformations – which are even now taking
shape at the very periphery of corporate awareness, perception and vision – or just beyond.
These agents of change may precipitate global impact-level events which either threaten the
very survival of the organisation - or present novel and unexpected opportunities for expansion
and growth. The ability to include weak signals and peripheral vision into the strategy and
planning process may therefore be critical in contributing towards the organisation's continued
growth, success, well being and survival.

Observing, Understanding and
Predicting Human Behaviour


In his foreword to Human Action: A Treatise on Economics, the great Austrian School
Economist, Ludwig von Mises, explains that complex market phenomena are simply "the
outcomes of endless conscious, purposeful individual actions, by countless individuals
exercising personal choices and preferences - each of whom is trying as best they can to
optimise their circumstances in order to achieve various needs and desires. Individuals,
through economic activity strive to attain their preferred outcomes - whilst at the same
time attempting to avoid any unintended consequences leading to unforeseen outcomes."



Thus von Mises lucidly presents the basis of economics as the science of observing, analysing,
understanding and predicting intimate human behaviour (human actions – micro-economics)
– which when aggregated together in a Market creates the flow of goods, services, people
and capital (market phenomena – macro-economy).



Human actions - individual choices in response to subjective personal value judgments
ultimately determine all market phenomena - patterns of supply and demand, production
and consumption, costs and prices, and even levels of profits and losses.....

Service Aggregation for Smart Homes - SASH

Value Creation vs. Value Consumption


We live in a natural world which, at the birth of civilisation, once was brimming to the full with
innumerable and diverse natural resources. It is important to realise that Wealth was never
bestowed on us “for free“ simply as a result of that abundant feedstock of natural resources.



Throughout History, Wealth was always extracted or created through Human Actions – the
result of countless men executing primary Value Creation Processes throughout the last 10,000
years- -such as Hunting and Gathering, Fishing and Forestry, Agriculture and Livestock, Mining
and Quarrying, Refining and Manufacturing. Secondary Added Value Processes - such as
Transport and Trading, Shipping and Mercantilism – serve only to Add Value to primary Wealth
which was originally created by the labour of others executing primary Value Chain Processes.



The Economic Wealth that we enjoy today as an advanced globalised society is not generated
“magically” through intellectual discovery and technology innovation, nor through market
phenomena created by the efforts of brokers and traders - or even by monetarist intervention
from economic planners or central bankers. Economic Wealth is as a result of the effort of man
- Human Actions and primary Value Chain Processes generating Utility or Exchange Value



Vast amounts of Wealth can also be created (and destroyed.....) via Market Phenomena - the
“Boom” and “Bust” Business Cycles of Economic Growth and Recession which act to influence
the Demand / Supply Models and Price Curves of Commodities, Bonds, Stocks and Shares in
Global Markets. Market Phenomena are simply the sum of all Human Actions – the aggregated
activity of Traders and Brokers, Buyers and Sellers participating in that particular marketplace.

Value Creation in Business


As an introduction to this special topic of the Value Chain - we have defined value
creation in terms of: “Utility Value” which is contrasted with “Exchange Value” 1.
2.

“Utility Value” – skills, learning, know-how, intellectual property and acquired knowledge
“Exchange Value” – land, property, capital, goods, traded instruments, commodities and
accumulated wealth.



Some of the key issues related to the study of Value are discussed - including the
topics of value creation, capture and consumption. All Utility and Exchange Value is
derived from fundamental Human Actions. Although this definition of value creation is
common across multiple levels of activity and analysis, the process of value creation
will differ based on its origination or source - whether that economic value is created
by an individual, a community, an enterprise - or due to Market Phenomena.



We explore the concepts of Human Actions, competition for scarce resources and
market isolating mechanisms which drive Business Cycles and Market Phenomena in
the Global Economy - using Value Chain analysis in order to explain how value may
be created, exchanged and captured – or consumed, dissipated and lost – as a result
of different activities using different processes at various levels within the Value Chain

Value Creation in Business


In order to develop a theory of value creation by enterprises, it is useful to first
characterise the value creation process. In the next two sections of this document
we develop a framework that builds upon Schumpeter's arguments to show: 1. In any economy, the Creation of Value is solely as a consequence of Human Actions
2. As a result of Human Actions, Value may be created, captured, stockpiled or consumed
3. Also, in any economy, every Individual and Organisation competes with each other for
the sole use of scare resources – land, property, capital, labour, machinery, traded
instruments and commodities – which may be either raw materials or finished goods
4. New and innovative combinations of resources gives the potential to create new value
5. Mercantilism – shipping, transport, sales, trading, battering and exchange of these new
combinations of resources - accounts for the actual realization of this potential value



In other words - resource combination and exchange lie at the heart of the value
creation process and in sections II and III we both describe how this process
functions - and also identify the conditions that facilitate and encourage, or slow
down and impede, each of these five elements of the Value Creation process.

Value Creation in Business


This framework establishes the theoretical infrastructure for the analysis of the roles firms
play in this value creation process and of how both firms and markets collectively influence
the process of economic development – which is derived from Human Actions: 1.
2.
3.
4.
5.



Value Creation – primary Wealth Creation Processes
Value Capture – the Acquisition of Wealth by means other than Value Creation
Value Stockpiling – the Accumulation of Wealth
Value-added Services – Mercantilism, shipping, transport, sales, trading, battering , exchange
Value Consumption – the depletion of Resources or the exhaustion of Wealth

As our analysis of the requirements for effective resource combination and exchange reveals,
global market phenomena alone are able to create only a very small fraction of the total
value that can be created out of the stock of resources available in economies. The very
different institutional nature and context of enterprises, operating in a state of creative
tension within global markets, substantially enhance the fraction of the total potential value
that a e o tai ed out of atu e s esou es. We des i e this p o ess of alue eatio
firms and, in section V, we integrate the firm's role with that of markets to explain why both
firms and markets are needed to ensure that economies develop and progress in a way that
achieves what Douglass North (1990) has described as "adaptive efficiency."'

Value Creation vs. Value Consumption


There are five roles for people in society: those who create wealth – Primary Value
Creators (Agriculture and Manufacturing) , those who Capture Value from others (through
Taxation, War, Plunder or Theft) those who stockpile Wealth (Savers) and those who
merely consume the wealth generated by others – Value Consumers.. Somewhere in the
middle are the Added Value Providers – those who create secondary value by executing
value-added processes to commodities and goods created by primary Value Creators.
1. Value Creators – primary Wealth Creators working in Agriculture and Manufacturing
2. Value Acquirers – those who capture Wealth generated by others e.g. via Inheritance,
Taxation by City, State and Federal Government , or through war, plunder and theft
3. Value Accumulators – those who aggregate, stockpile and hoard Wealth e.g. Savers
4. Value-adders – Secondary Wealth Creators who add value to basic commodities through the
human actions of mercantilism, shipping, transport, sales, trading, and retailing
5. Value Consumers – Everyone consumes resources and depletes wealth to some degree by
spending their earnings on Food, Housing, Utilities, Clothes, Entertainment and so on.



About half of society – Children, Students, Invalid and Sick, Unemployed and Government
Workers – consume much of the wealth generated by Primary and Secondary Wealth
Creators – offsetting only little of their depletion of Resources or consumption of Wealth.

Understanding Human Behaviour

Observing, Understanding and
Predicting Human Behaviour
Economic Analysis – Human Actions
Economist Ludwig von Mises, explains that complex market phenomena are
simply "the outcomes of endless conscious, purposeful individual actions, by
countless individuals exercising personal choices and preferences - each of
whom is trying as best they can to optimise their circumstances in order to
achieve various needs and desires. Individuals, through economic activity
strive to attain their preferred outcomes - whilst at the same time attempting
to avoid any unintended consequences leading to unforeseen outcomes." s

Austrian School of Real Economics


In his foreword to Human Action: A Treatise on Economics, the great Austrian School
Economist, Ludwig von Mises, explains that complex market phenomena are simply "the
outcomes of endless conscious, purposeful individual actions, by countless individuals
exercising personal choices and preferences - each of whom is trying as best they can to
optimise their circumstances in order to achieve various needs and desires. Individuals,
through economic activity strive to attain their preferred outcomes - whilst at the same
time attempting to avoid any unwanted outcomes leading to unintended consequences."



Thus von Mises lucidly presents the basis of economics as the science of observing,
analysing, understanding and predicting intimate human behaviour (human actions – or
micro-economics) – which when aggregated creates the flow of goods, services, people
and capital (market phenomena - or the macro-economy). Individual choices in response
to subjective personal value judgments ultimately determine all market phenomena patterns of supply and demand, production and consumption, costs and prices, and even
profits and losses. Although commodity prices may appear to be set by economic planners
in central banks under strict government control - it is, in fact, the actions of individual
consumers living in communities and participating in their local economy who actually
determine what the Real Economic value of commodity prices really are. As a result of the
individual choices and collective actions exercised by producers and consumers through
competitive bidding in markets for capital and labour, goods and materials, products and
services throughout all global markets – ultimately the global economy is both driven by,
and is the product of - the sum of all individual human actions.

Economic Modelling and Long-range
Forecasting


The way that we think about the future must mirror how the future actually
unfolds. We have learned from recent experience, that the future is not a
straightforward extrapolation of simple, single-domain trends. We now have to
consider ways in which random, chaotic and radically disruptive events may be
factored into enterprise threat assessment and risk management frameworks and incorporated into enterprise decision-making structures and processes.



Economic Modelling and Long-range Forecasting is driven by Data Warehouse
Structures and Economic Models containing both Historic (up to 20 years daily
closing prices for LNG and all grades of crude) and Future values (daily forecast
and weekly projected price curves, monthly and quarterly movement
predictions, and so on for up to 20 years into the future – giving a total timeline
of 40-year (+ / - 20 years Historic and Future trends summary, outline
movements and highlights). Forecast results are obtained using Economic
Models - Quantitative (Technical) Analysis (Monte Carlo Simulation, Pattern and
Trend Analysis - Economic growth . contraction and Recession / Depression
shapes along with Commodity Price Curve Data Sets) – in turn driving Qualitative
(Narrative) Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis techniques.

Waves, Cycles, Patterns and Trends


Business Cycles were once thought to be an economic phenomenon due to periodic
fluctuations in economic activity. These mid-term economic cycle fluctuations are
usually measured using Real (Austrian) Gross Domestic Product (rGDP). Business
Cycles take place against a long-term background trend in Economic Output –
growth, stagnation or recession – which affects Money Supply as well as the relative
availability and consumption (Demand v. Supply and Value v. Price) of other
Economic Commodities. Any excess of Money Supply may lead to an economic
e pa sio o
oo , o e sel sho tage of Mo e “uppl a lead to e o o i
o t a tio o
ust . Busi ess C les a e e u i g, flu tuati g le els of e o o i
activity experiences in an economy over a significant timeline (decades or centuries).



The five stages of Business Cycles are growth (expansion), peak, recession
(contraction), trough and recovery. Business Cycles were once widely thought to be
e t e el egula , ith p edi ta le du atio s, ut toda s Global Market Business
Cycles are now thought to be unstable and appear to behave in irregular, random and
even chaotic patterns – varying in frequency, range, magnitude and duration. Many
leading economists now also suspect that Business Cycles may be influenced by fiscal
policy as much as market phenomena - even that Global Economic Wild Card and
Bla k “ a events are actually triggered by Economic Planners in Government
Treasury Departments and in Central Banks as a result of manipulating the Money
Supply under the interventionalist Fiscal Policies adopted by some Western Nations.

Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis
Techniques
TECHNICAL (QUANTITATIVE) METHODS
Asymptotic Methods and Perturbation Theory
Big Data” - Statistical analysis of very large scale (VLS)datasets
Convex analysis
Credit Risk Modelling (PD, LGD)
Data Mining and CHAID Analysis
Derivatives (vanilla; exotics)
Dynamical systems & bifurcation theory
Dynamics and reduction of networks
Extreme value theory
Economic Wave and Business Cycle Analysis
Financial econometrics (factor & macro models)
Financial time series analysis
Game Theory and Lanchester Theory
Integral equations
Interest rates derivatives
Linear Systems (linear equations)
Market Risk Modelling (Greeks; VaR)
Markov processes
Monte Carlo simulations
Non-linear differential equations (stochastic, parabolic)
Neural networks, Machine Learning and Computerised Trading
Numerical analysis & computational methods
Optimal control and Optimisation
Options pricing (Black-Scholes; binomial tree; extensions)
Price Curves – Support and Resistance Price Levels
Quantitative (Technical) Analysis
Volatility modelling (ARMA, GARCH)
Statistical Analysis and Graph Theory
Statistical Arbitrage
Technical (Quant) Analysis
Trading Strategies - neutral, HFT, pairs, macro; derivatives;
Trade Risk Modelling

NARRATIVE (QUALITATIVE) METHODS
Causal Layer Analysis (CLA)
Chaos Thieory
Complex (non-linear) Systems
Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)
Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking
Delphi Oracle
Fisher-Pry Analysis and Gomperttz Analysis
Pattern and Trend Analysis
Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis
Weak Signals, Wild Cards, Black Swan Event Forecasting

Quantitative Analysis Techniques


Quantitative (Technical) Analysis involves studying detailed microeconomic models which process vast quantities of Market Data
(commodity price data sets). This method utilises a form of historic data
analysis technique which smoothes or profiles market trends into more
predictable short-term price curves - which will vary over time within a
specific market. Quantitative (Technical) Analysts can initiate specific
market responses when prices reach support and resistance levels – via
manual information feeds to human Traders or by tripping buying or selling
triggers where autonomous Computer Trading is deployed. Technical
Analysis is data-driven (experiential), not model-driven (empirical) because
our current economic models do not support the observed market data.
The key to both approaches, however, is in identifying, analysing, and
anticipating subtle changes in the average direction of movement for Price
Curves – which in turn reflect relatively short-term Market Trends.

Qualitative Analysis Techniques


Qualitative (Narrative) Analysis involves further processing of
summarised results generated by Quantitative (Technical) Analysis - super
sets of many individual micro-economic models. Techniques such as
Monte Carlo Simulation cycle macro-economic models through thousands
of iterations – minutely varying the starting conditions for each run.
Results appear as a scatter diagram consisting of thousands of individual
points for commodity prices over a given time line. Instead of a random
distribution – we discover clusters of closely related results in a
background of a few scattered outliers. Each of these clusters represents a
Scenario – which is analysed using Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis
and explained as a narrative story about a possible future outcome – along
with the probability of that scenario materialising.

Big Data Glo al Co te t A alysis


Big Data refers to those aggregated datasets whose size and scope is beyond
the capability of conventional transactional Database Management Systems and
Enterprise Software Tools to capture, store, analyse and manage. This definition
of Big Data is of e essit su je ti e a d ualitati e – Big Data is defined as
a large collection of unstructured information, which, when initially captured,
contains sparse or undiscovered internal references, links or data relationships.



Data “et Mashi g o Big Data Glo al Co te t A al sis – supports Strategic
Foresight Techniques such as Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking by
taking numerous, apparently un-related RSS and other Information Streams and
Data Feeds, loading them into Very large Scale (VLS) DWH Structures and
Unstructured Databases and Document Management Systems for interrogating
using Data Mining and Real-time Analytics – that is, searching for and identifying
possible signs of hidden data relationships (Facts/Events) – in order to discover
and interpret previously unknown Weak “ig als indicating emerging and
developing Scenarios, Patterns and Trends - in turn predicating possible,
probable and alternative transformations, catalysts and agents of change which
may develop and unfold as future Wild Card or Bla k “ a events.

The Flow of Information through Time


Every item of Global Content that we find in the Present is somehow connected
with both the Past and the Future. Time is a Dimension – which flows in a single
direction, as does a River. Time, like Water, does not flow uniformly – outside of the
ai ha el the e a e su e ged o je ts a do e e ts that posses the
ability to cause disturbances, eddies and currents in the flow of Time (disorder and
uncertainty) – that in turn have the capacity to generate ripples, whirlpools and
waves (chaos and disruption) - changing the course of the Time-Space continuum.



Time Present is, therefore, always in some way inextricably woven into both Time
Past a d Ti e Futu e. Weak “ig als a e ghosts i the a hi e of these su li i al
temporal interactions. Chaos Theory suggests that even the most subliminal inputs,
so minute as to be undetectable, may ultimately be amplified in effect over many
system cycles – to grow in influence and trigger dramatic changes in future
outcomes. So any given item of Information or Data (Global Content) may contain
faint traces which hold hints or clues about Past, Present and Future Events.

Big Data – Analysing and Informing


Big Data is now a torrent raging through every aspect of the global
economy – both the public sector and private industry. Global enterprises
generate enormous volumes of transactional data – capturing trillions of
bytes of information from the external supply chain – global markets,
customers and suppliers – and from their own internal business operations.
– SENSE LAYER – Remote Monitoring and Control – WHAT and WHEN?
– GEO-DEMOGRAPHIC LAYER – People and Places – WHO and WHERE?
– INFORMATION LAYER – Big Data a d Data “et

ashi g – HOW?

– SERVICE LAYER – Real-time Analytics – WHY?
– COMMUNICATION LAYER – Mobile Enterprise Platforms

– INFRASTRUCTURE LAYER – Cloud Service Platforms

Big Data – Analysing and Informing


SENSE LAYER – Remote Monitoring and Control – WHAT and WHEN?
– Remote Sensing – Sensors, Monitors, Detectors, Smart Appliances / Devices
– Remote Viewing – Satellite. Airborne, Mobile and Fixed HDCCTV
– Remote Monitoring, Command and Control – SCADA



GEO-DEMOGRAPHIC LAYER – People and Places – WHO and WHERE?
– Person and Social Network Directories - Personal and Social Media Data
– Location and Property Gazetteers - Building Information Models (BIM)
– Mapping and Spatial Analysis - Topology, Landscape, Global Positioning Data



INFORMATION LAYER – Big Data a d Data “et

ashi g – HOW?

– Content – Structured and Unstructured Data and Content
– Information – Atomic Data, Aggregated, Ordered and Ranked Information
– Transactional Data Streams – Smart Devices, EPOS, Internet, Mobile Networks

Big Data – Analysing and Informing


SERVICE LAYER – Real-time Analytics – WHY?







Global Mapping and Spatial Analysis
Service Aggregation, Intelligent Agents and Alerts
Data Analysis, Data Mining and Statistical Analysis
Optical and Wave-form Analysis and Recognition, Pattern and Trend Analysis

COMMUNICATION LAYER – Mobile Enterprise Platforms and the Smart Grid
– Connectivity - Smart Devices, Smart Apps, Smart Grid
– Integration - Mobile Enterprise Application Platforms (MEAPs)
– Backbone – Wireless and Optical Next Generation Network (NGE) Architectures



INFRASTRUCTURE LAYER – Cloud Service Platforms





Public, Mixed / Hybrid, Enterprise, Private, Secure and G-Cloud Cloud Models
Infrastructure – Network, Storage and Servers
Applications – COTS Software, Utilities, Enterprise Services
Security – Principles, Policies, Users, Profiles and Directories, Data Protection

Smart Household Information Brokering Platform
Upstream Organisations
Stakeholder

Stakeholder

Brokering
Trusted
Renewables
Platform

Stakeholder

Stakeholder

Mediation
Platform

Stakeholder

Smart household

Service/
content
providers,
utilities etc

Stakeholder

Appliances, meters
and transducers
sending information to
the mediation platform

Stakeholder

The Internet

©182Colin Mallett – Trusted Renewables

© Hatfield Consortium 2012

UK Energy – Current Market
Overview and Future Challenges
“Time present and time past
Are both perhaps present in time future,
And time future contained in time past . . .
all ti e is eter ally prese t
• Time, Eternity, and Immortality in T. S. Eliot's Four Quartets •

UK Energy – Current Market Overview

Nigel Tebbutt

UK Energy – Current Market
Overview
Most of Chi a s E e g , Oil a d Gas o es
from places like Iran, the Former Soviet
Union (FSU) Republics and Venezuela places where the EU and USA don't do too
much business.....

UK Energy Production

UK Energy Production by Source

UK Wind Farm Growth

UK Energy Consumption

Top 6 UK Energy Companies
Scottish Power
The company owns 6.4 gigawatts (GW) of generation capacity, or 9 per cent of Britain's total generation
capacity. It also owns two of the 14 electricity distribution networks and, via these, has around five million
domestic energy customers, or 10 per cent of the market.
Scottish & Southern Energy
SSE owns 8.8GW of capacity, or 12 per cent of the total generation capacity in the UK. It owns two
electricity distribution networks and has 12 per cent of Britain's domestic energy customers. It also owns
two gas distribution networks.
Centrica
The third and final UK independent utility has the largest domestic consumer base: just over 12 million
customers supplied with gas and 6.2 million supplied with electricity. It also has a telecoms business,
onetel, and is building up a customer base in North America. Through its fields in the North Sea, it
provides around 8 per cent of the UK's gas.
EDF Energy
The UK arm of the state-owned Electricité de France has more than five million domestic energy
customers, and distributes electricity to a quarter of the population via its three distribution companies,
which include London Electricity. It generates around 5GW.
RWE
The German company, through its UK subsidiary RWE npower, has 12 per cent of the domestic supply
market and owns three distribution companies. It has 8.6GW of capacity and owns Thames Water.
E.ON UK
The German-owned E.ON has three electricity distribution companies and 17 per cent of the domestic
energy supply market. It can generate around 10GW of electricity.

Top 6 UK Energy Companies
The Top Six UK
Energy Companies

UK Generation
Capacity (GW)

British Gas
E.ON
Scottish Power
EDF Energy
RWE npower
Scottish & Southern Energy
(Imported via UK / France Interlink)
(others)

10.0
6.4
5.0
8.6
8.8
6.6
20.6

TOTAL

66.0

15%
9%
7%
12%
13%
10%
34%

UK Energy Supply
Market Share
Electricity
Gas
Total
12%
19%
10%
10%
12%
12%
25%

24%
17%
10%
10%
12%
13%
13%

18%
18%
10%
10%
12%
13%
19%

N.B. – UK Energy Gap – Demand exceeds Supply by about 10% – balance is imported from France

Smart Energy – Future Market Overview

Nigel Tebbutt

UK Energy - Carbon Future
Management
As America enters a new decade of Isolationism - Future US
industrial growth will de driven by a reducing dependency on
Middle East Energy sources and increasing domestic Oil and Gas
Production - deep sea off-shore (for both petroleum and methane)
and on-shore Energy Sources such as Tar Sands, Oil Shale and
Shale Gas hydraulic fracturing (fracking) to produce Oil and Gas.

UK Smart Energy Future Top 6
Top Six Smart Energy
Virtual Suppliers

Top Six Smart Energy
Service Companies

Hitachi Nuclear Power
First Utility / Kingfisher Smart Cities of the
Future
O2 Energy
Tesco Energy
Virgin Energy
Sainsbury Energy
Marks & Spencer Energy

BT Smart Reach
Siemens Energy
Siemens Metering Services (SMS)
UK Smart Metering Group
Actuate
Itron

Top Six Smart Grid &
Network Companies
BT Business Networks
Huawei
EUnetworks
H2O Group (part of ii3)
Telefonica O2
Virgin Media Business

Top Six Cloud Services &
Smart Device Content Providers
VCE – Cisco, EMC2, Intel, VMWare
Canopy (Athos) , NaviSite (Time Warner)
Google – Google Apps Environment (GAE)
Microsoft – Azure, Silverlight, Office 365
Amazon – Amazon Web Services (AWS)
E-bay – Open e-Commerce Platform
Apple - iCloud

Energy 2.0 – The Energy Enterprise of the Future


The Energy Company of the Future o sists of toda s di t fossil e e g a d
petrochemical industries, which we have dubbed Carbon Co. – as well as
to o o s lea Alte ati e, ‘e e a le a d “ustai a le E e g i dust ies –
Solar Co. Present-day revenues from the sales of fossil fuel energy should be taxed
and set aside to cover future responsibilities of Carbon Co – which includes the
withdrawal from heritage carbon and uranium energy sources, along with the deo
issio i g, dis a tli g a d lea si g of di t e e g fa ilities.



Current ase load e e g sou es – coal and nuclear – cost between 20-30% of
the current cost of clean solar energy sources. Carbon Taxes will be used to close
the price differential to the consumer, and to fund the clean up of heritage Carbon
Co sites - as well as to provide for future investment in developing “olar Co’s
replacement portfolio of Alternative, Renewable and Sustainable energy
industries. In the post-carbon age, Carbon Co continues to exist in the form of the
Petrochemical Industry – the provider of Raw Materials and Feed Stocks to the
future manufacturing industry - fabrication enterprises.

© Robin Mannings

Energy 2.0 – The Energy Enterprise of the Future


Carbon Co. – The Carbon Enterprise of the Future



Solar Co. – The Solar Energy Enterprise of the Future

– Carbon Company – Coal, Oil and Gas-Futures. Much wider than just carbon
(so would include uranium and thorium energy sources as well as the storage
and distribution of Carbon and Nuclear energy). Digital Carbon Fields of the
Future will enable enhanced recovery from carbon fields in remote,
inaccessible, hostile or hazardous locations, or carbon fields otherwise
thought to be depleted, exhausted or worked-out – including coal, peat, oil
shake kerogen energy sources. Also, the research, development and
exploitation of future Carbon sources such as methane hydrate - there are
estimated to be as much as 30 trillion barrels of LNG sequestered as methane
h d ate i the o ld s seas a d o ea s at depths of o e
0 ete s a d
temperatures around 4 C.

– Sustainability-Company – Alternative, Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Sources. This would include all solar-derived energy sources (bio-fuel, solar /
photovoltaic, wind, wave and hydro-electricity) and above all atomic fusion,
along with the storage and distribution of energy. This includes the research,
de elop e t a d e ploitatio of all lea e e g sou es to e a le the
transition away from Carbon.
© Robin Mannings

Carbon Fields of the Future



Technology Enablement for Scenario Modelling and Simulation
For an Energy, Oil and Gas Services Conglomerate: - Physical Modelling
(Commodity / Reservoir Exploitation) and Economic Modelling (Forecast Demand,
Supply and Cost / Price Curves), using Monte Carlo Simulation / Scenario Planning
and Impact Analysis.



Deploying very large scale GIS Mapping, Spatial Analysis and Data Warehouse
Structures containing both Historic and Future values.



Providing Financial Forecasting - Source / Application of Funds Discounted Cash
Flow and ROI within an Enterprise Risk Management Framework and utilising
Enterprise Risk Management and Treasury Management systems (SunGard Zainet,
Quantum)



Physical Modelling - GIS Mapping, Spatial Analysis, 3-D Rendering, Sub-surface Modelling
and Reservoir Simulation
Economic Modelling - Monte Carlo Simulation, Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis,
Financial Modelling, Planning and Forecasting
Model Management - Model Design and Construction, Base-line Data Loading, Model
Initialisation, History Matching, Tuning and Prediction runs.




Petroleum Reservoir Simulation and Exploitation
Petroleum Reservoir depletion may take place over periods up to and exceeding 30 years…..



Reservoir Simulation





The Grid System
The Well Model
Conservation Equations
Geological Mapping and Analysis

• Well Log Data and Spatial Analysis
• Sub-surface Modelling

– Reservoir Modelling

• Typological Characterization
– Synclines and Anticlines
– Aquifers and Salt Domes

– Model Initialization

• Baseline Data and Prediction Runs
• History Matching and Model Tuning

– Exploitation Modelling
• Depletion Options
• Extraction Rates
• Recovery Extents

– Enhanced Recovery Techniques
• Water Injection
• Gas Injection



Reservoir Exploitation

– Economic Modelling and Price Curves

• Forecast Demand, Supply and Reserves

– Oil & Gas Production Cost Engineering
– Geological Science and Petrology
• Transient Well Logging
• Open Hole Logging
• Production Logging

– Subsurface Reservoir Geology





Exploration Geophysics
Reservoir Mapping
Reservoir Modelling
Heavy Oil Technology

– Enhanced Oil and Gas Recovery
• Water flooding

– Reservoir Analysis
– Recovery Prediction
– Injection Design

• Gas displacement

– Reservoir Analysis
– Recovery Prediction
– Injection Design

Typical Petroleum Recovery was 35% until Enhanced Recovery Techniques drove up to and over 65%…..

Petroleum Reservoir Modelling and Simulation

Petroleum Reservoir Modelling and Simulation

Digital Oilfields Strategy Study


Industry Trends – Telco Managed Network Industry trend analysis – Design, Build, and and
Operate – Core Digital Networks (Wireless / Optical), DCT, Smart Devices, Cloud Computing,
Process Control, Telemetry and SCADA business segments: – Technology Horizon Scanning – future
studies / trend analysis / business drivers / markets / opportunities / finance options / revenue
streams?


Technology Horizon Scanning – Strategy Consultant and Enterprise Architect: •






Global Content Survey – Published Articles and Papers, PhD Thesis submissions, Intellectual Property Copyrights,
Trademarks and Applications for Patents
Strategy Formulation – Key Principles and Policies
Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis – Customer Journeys and Experience
Solution Options and Outline Architecture Master Plan, Landscape and Roadmap

Business Review – Business Review of the proposed technology partners - the positioning of the
company, the markets that they operate in,, the products and services that they have developed,
technologies employed, their value and contribution towards achieving core Digital Oilfield
outcomes?


Strategic Technology Vendors – UK Energy Programme Sponsors and Strategic Vendors







Hitachi (Japan)
Nokia (Finland)
Ericsson (Sweden)
Siemens, Satellic and Telefonica O2 (Germany)
Huawei (China)
Sanyo (South Korea)

Digital Oilfields Strategy Study


The Proposed Strategy Study is to include the following major topics: – Professional Services Provision –

• Civil Engineering and Construction – site surveying & acquisition, infrastructure design &
construction, civil engineering and building services
• Building Management – site services and maintenance of third party civil engineering structures,
telecommunication and network management equipment
• Environment Management – environmental protection, sustainability / renewable resources

– Telecommunication Network Design and Installation

• Mobile Virtual Network Operations (MVNO) / Optical Network design, build and installation
• Design and Construction of Network Management Services monitoring, and control systems
• Cloud Computing, Smart Devices / Smart Grid, HDCCTV, Wireless Telemetry & SCADA)

– IT and Special Projects Provision

• Electronic Systems Integration – HW & SW Design, Development and Implementation
• Design and Build of IT Solutions – transaction processing systems, informational systems, remote
monitoring and flow measurement, process automation. command & control systems
• Special Projects – Systems Architecture, Design, Development and Implementation Projects (Smart
Devices, e-portals, data capture / e-information flow, multimedia content platforms,)
• Mobile Equipment – Design and Installation of Special Purpose Vehicles and Equipment (e.g.
Emergency Response, Network Support and Mobile Engineering Maintenance Vehicles)

– Automation and Process Management Outsourcing Provision

• Outsource Network Management Service Providers – transaction processing systems, informational
systems, remote monitoring, hydrocarbon density / flow measurement and process control systems
(Network Management, Data Collection and Aggregation, Identity & Access Management, Process
Automation & Control, Remote Monitoring, Sensing, Viewing)

Strategic Analysis - deliverables


Part 1 – Strategy Study – Technology Horizon Scanning for Cloud Computing and Smart
Technology, Digital Oilfield Management Systems, Managed Network Services


Resources



Content



Method



Timeline - Cost / Duration Estimates and Project Plan available on request.













Programme Sponsor (Client) – part time
Project Manager (Interim) – full time
Strategy Consultant (Interim) – full time
Enterprise / Solution Architect (Interim) – full time
Smart Technology – Environmental Impact – Sustainability and Renewable Resources
Smart Devices, e-portals, data capture / e-information flow, multimedia content platforms
Traffic Management Systems – Road Safety – Congestion Charging and Tolls
Identity/Access Management, Automation, Process Control, Monitoring, Telemetry & SCADA
Managed Network Services – Optical VPN / Wireless MVNO

Delphi Oracle – Future Traffic Management Questionnaire sent to leading Futurists, Technologists and Global
Transport Experts. Responses evaluated via Balanced Scorecard.



Part 2 – Findings and Report – Future Digital Oilfield Management Strategic Outcomes, Goals
and Objectives



Part 3 – Recommendations and Way Forward – Digital Oilfield Architecture Master Plan,
Solution Options, Cloud Computing and Smart Technology Report – Balanced Scorecard
Evaluation – Technologies, Products, Services - Vendor Strategic Partnering

Global Energy Futures
Trusted Renewables:

Jeff Goddard
Strategic Alliances Director @ Ingenera
Nigel Tebbutt
奈杰尔 泰巴德
Future Business Models & Emerging Technologies @ Ingenera
Adam Kent
Founder and MD @ enado
Trusted Renewables: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework ©

Global Energy - Strategic Future
Management
The way that we think about the future must mirror how the
future actually unfolds. As we have learned from recent
experience, the future is not a straightforward extrapolation of
simple, single-domain trends. We now have to consider ways in
which the possibility of random, chaotic and radically disruptive
events may be factored into enterprise threat assessment and risk
management frameworks and incorporated into enterprise
decision-making structures and processes.....

Thi ki g a out the Future…..

EA-envision



The way that we think about the future must mirror how the future actually unfolds.
As we have learned from recent experience, the future is not a straightforward
extrapolation of simple, single-domain trends. We now have to consider ways in
which the possibility of random, chaotic and radically disruptive events may be
factored into enterprise threat assessment and risk management frameworks and
incorporated into enterprise decision-making structures and processes.



Ma age s a d o ga isatio s ofte ai to sta fo used a d ai tai a a o
perspective in dealing with key business issues, challenges and targets. A
concentration of focus may risk overlooking those Weak Signals indicating potential
issues and events, agents and catalysts of change. These Weak Signals – along with
their resultant Wild Cards, Black Swan Events and global transformations - are even
now taking shape at the very periphery of corporate awareness, perception and
vision – or even just beyond.



These agents of change may precipitate global impact-level events which either
threaten the very survival of the organisation - or present novel and unexpected
opportunities for expansion and growth. The ability to include weak signals and
peripheral vision into the strategy and planning process may therefore be critical in
contributing towards the organisation's continued growth, success, well being and
survival.

Futures Studies

EA-envision



Futures Studies, Foresight, or Futurology is the science, practice and art
of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures. Futures studies
(colloquially called "Futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to
understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is
a novel, emerging pattern or trend. Part of the discipline thus seeks a
systematic and extrapolation-based understanding of both past and
present events - in order to determine the probability and impact of
future events, patterns and trends.



Futures is an interdisciplinary curriculum, studying yesterday's and today's
changes, and aggregating and analyzing both lay and professional content
and strategies, beliefs and opinions, forecasts and predictions with respect
to shaping tomorrow. It includes analysing the sources, agents and causes,
patterns and trends of both change and stability in an attempt to develop
foresight and to map possible, probable and alternative futures.

Foresight


EA-envision

Foresight draws on traditions of work in long-range forecasting and strategic planning
horizontal policymaking and democratic planning, horizon scanning and futures
studies (Ansoff, Feather, van der Hijden, Slaughter et all) - but was also highly
influenced by systemic approaches to innovation studies, global design, massive
change, science and technology futures, economic, social and demographic policy,
fashion and design - and the analysis of "weak signals" and "wild cards", "future
t e ds " iti al te h ologies a d ultu al e olutio ".
– The longer-term - futures that are usually at least 10 years away (though there are some
exceptions to this, especially in its use in private business). Since Foresight is an actionoriented discipline (via the planning link) it will rarely be applied to perspectives beyond a
few decades out. Where major infrastructure decisions such as petrology reservoir
exploitation, aircraft design, power station construction, transport hubs and town master
planning decisions are concerned - then the planning horizon may well be half a century.
– Alternative futures: it is helpful to examine alternative paths of development, not just what
is currently believed to be most likely or business as usual. Often Foresight will construct
multiple scenarios. These may be an interim step on the way to creating what may be
known as positive visions, success scenarios or aspirational futures. Sometimes alternative
scenarios will be a major part of the output of a Foresight study, with the decision about
what preferred future to build being left to other mechanisms (Planning and Strategy).

Strategic Foresight

EA-envision



Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent
and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organisational
ways. For example to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, and
to explore new markets, products and services. It represents a fusion of futures
methods with those of strategic management (Slaughter (1999), p.287).



Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are defined via
Strategic Foresight and are determined by design, planning and management - so
that the future becomes realistic and achievable. Possible futures may comply with
our preferred options - and therefore our vision of an ideal future and desired
outcomes could thus be fulfilled.
– Positivism – articulating a single, preferred vision of the future. The future will conform
to our preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes will be
fulfilled.
– Futurism – assessing possible, probable and alternative futures – selecting those futures
offering conditions that best fit our strategic goals and objectives for achieving a
preferred and desired future. Filtering for a more detailed analysis may be achieved by
discounting isolated outliers and focusing upon those closely clustered future
descriptions which best support our desired future outcomes, goals and objectives.

The Petrodollar – Economic Warfare


According to proponents of the petrodollar economic warfare hypothesis,
most oil sales throughout the world are denominated in United States dollars
(USD). Most countries are not energy sufficient - so rely on importing oil.
• Net Oil Importers are thus compelled to maintain large stockpiles of dollars in
order to continue to finance petroleum imports.
• This in turn creates a strong and consistent demand for USDs and places
upwards pressure on the USD's value - regardless of prevailing economic
conditions in the United States.
• This further acts as an advantage to the US government and allows the US
administration to gain increased revenues through seignorage and by issuing
bonds at lower interest rates than they would be able to do otherwise.
• As a result of the Petrodollar Phenomenon - the U.S. government is now
able to run much higher budget deficits than can any other country - over
very long periods of time, at a more-or-less sustainable level.....

The Petrodollar – Economic Warfare








A stronger USD also means that raw materials and manufactured goods imported into
the United States become relatively cheaper than would otherwise be the case.
Another component of the hypothesis is that the price of oil is more stable in the U.S.
than anywhere else, since importers do not need to concern themselves about
exchange rate fluctuations.
Since the U.S. imports a great deal of oil, US markets are relatively heavily reliant on
oil and its derivative products (jet fuel, diesel fuel, gasoline, etc.) to meet their energy
demands.
The price of oil is a quite an important political factor; so U.S. administrations very are
sensitive to the price of oil.
As America enters a new decade of Isolationism - Future US industrial growth will de
driven by a reducing dependency on Middle East Energy sources and increasing
domestic Oil and Gas Production - deep sea off-shore (for both petroleum and
methane) and on-shore Energy Sources such as Tar Sands, Oil Shale and Shale Gas
hydraulic fracturing (fracking) to produce Oil and Gas.

The Petrodollar – Economic Warfare






Trade Partners, Economic Rivals and Political Opponents – and even future enemies –
of the United States such as China, the BARICs (Brazil, Argentina, Russia, India and
China), and even the EU – might therefore have significant interest in seeing Energy
Contracts denominated in Euros or other currencies.
The EU could also theoretically accrue the same benefits if the euro replaced the
dollar. However, the European Economy could also be seriously damaged if the euro
were to appreciate significantly against the dollar or other world currencies,
particularly its exports which would become relatively more expensive for the rest of
the world. The same dynamic can apply to the dollar and the U.S. economy, as well.
Indicators of a looming Petrodollar Crisis leading to possible conflict or warfare – or
even signs of a forthcoming Global Trade War might begin in any one or more of the
following Wild Card events: –





China or Japan suspending purchases of Euros or Eurobonds
China or Japan selling a significant % of their Euro or Eurobond Reserves
China or Japan suspending purchases of US Treasury Notes or Dollars
China or Japan selling a significant % of their US Treasury Note or Dollar Reserves
China or Japan looking to Trade Commodities (such as Energy, Oil and Gas) on Global
Markets with Contracts or Traded Instruments written up in a currency other than the USD

The Future of Global Energy
Trusted Renewables:

Ingenera

Jeff Goddard
Strategic Alliances Director @ Ingenera
Nigel Tebbutt
奈杰尔 泰巴德
Future Business Models & Emerging Technologies @ Ingenera
Adam Kent
Founder and MD @ enado
Trusted Renewables: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework ©

Thinking about the Future of
E e g …..
How different will tomorrow be?
The energy industry has one of the longest timelines of any business sector.
Decisions are being made today for oil or natural gas fields that will only
begin to flow fifteen years from now. A power plant approved tomorrow
may be operating for more than half a century. Increasingly, the cost of
many major capital investment decisions will be measured not in the
hundreds of millions, but billions, of dollars. Investors, in the meantime,
have to decide where to put their bets on technologies that will take many
years to develop and mature

Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA)

Thinking About the Future of Energy


The energy industry has one of the longest timelines of any business sector. Decisions are being
made today for oil or natural gas fields that will only begin to flow fifteen years from now. A
power plant approved tomorrow may be operating for more than half a century. Increasingly,
the cost of major capital investment decisions will be measured not in the hundreds of millions,
but billions, of dollars. Investors, in the meantime, have to decide where to put their bets on
emerging technologies that may take many years to establish, develop and mature.



Inevitably, much will change over those time frames. Unexpected geopolitical clashes will
disrupt markets. Economic performance will be surprising. innovative Technology will bring in
to focus new energy sources and change the competitive balance. Governments will
undoubtedly change their minds on the dominance of laisez-faire market forces on the one
hand, and imposition of regulation and state ownership on the other - and flip the balance
between extremes more than once.



Today, the outlook for regulation of carbon emissions creates another layer of uncertainty.
There could be strong pressure to change the fuel choices in the face of tighter carbon
regulations. Or the other hand, the international community may fail to agree on effective
carbon controls, and state legislation and regulation could be absent, limited or not effectively
enforced. There will certainly be much debate as to whether to rely on markets or regulation to
meet climate change targets and goals.

Thinking About the Future of Energy


How do we make decisions in the face of such chaos, disruption and uncertainty?



“ e ario Pla i g a d I pa t A alysis can play a very useful role. A disciplined process of
scenario development provides a framework for managing the possibility of chaos, disruption
a d u e tai t . These a e ot fo e asts o e t apolatio s. ‘athe , the a e logi al sto ies
a out alte ati e futu es that fo e o e to thi k a out the hat-ifs, the su p ises a d the
range of uncertainties. Think of them as thought experiments, but grounded in wide-ranging
research and analysis. Our energy scenarios combine structured narratives of how the larger
world could evolve in the future with detailed energy market modeling. Yes, they are thought
experiments, but the objective is to help people to think systematically about trends and the
potential for changes, ruptures and discontinuities. Scenarios, of course, can be used for any
industry or for public policy.



Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) e e tl o pleted a stud e titled Da of a
New Age - The Futu e E e g Ti eli e to 0 0 : hi h p ese ts th ee possi le, p o a le a d
alternative long-term energy scenarios. The objective of the study is to clarify the risks and
choices ahead. Each of the scenarios examines an important strategic question about how the
world may unfold over the next 25 years and what this means for energy markets (see CERA’s
Dawn of a New Age Scenarios in Brief).

Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis

Price Index Inflation

Scenario 1 - The Asian Phoenix


SCENARIO 1 - What happens if the BRICS - Brazil, Russia, China and India –
along with other countries in Asia Pacific continue to grow at their current rate?



The Asian Phoenix Scenario examines the implications of a possible scenario for
energy markets of such a transformed world. In this scenario, Asia reaches 54
percent of world GDP in 2030 and grows from its current 29 percent of world
energy consumption to 42 percent. Continued strong economic growth in Asia
pushes oil consumption to new highs. Tight markets keep prices well above the
last 25 year average price per barrel.



One outcome is that the international rivalry and competition for access to oil
a d gas esou es ot o l g o s ut i ol es e pla e s. Easte oil
o pa ies e e ge to o pete ith the t aditio al Weste
o pa ies,
especially in new regions of supply such as Central Asia and Africa. Another
result, perhaps surprising to some, is that coal consumption will grow
substantially, particularly in China and India. Coal powers these nations to new
global standing but it also will become, if without mitigation, an increasing
source of geopolitical tension as climate concerns mount.

Scenario 2 – Oil Price Break Point


SCENARIO 2 - What would happen if oil prices move well above $100 price per barrel
as experienced a few years ago? Could oil and gas lose its current totally dominant
position in the energy sector? These are the questions that the Oil Price Break Point
Scenario explores in the most probable scenario - a world in which oil breaks through
the $100 per barrel barrier for a sustained period of time. In this scenario, it is not
shortage of oil and gas resources as reserves above ground - nor accessible /
exploitable hydrocarbon reservoirs below ground that pushes prices up - but rather
global geopolitical events. This scenario demonstrates how ultra-high oil prices and
global energy insecurity could unleash the second collapse in a double-dip depression
- with a mix of policy and price responses along with enhanced technology innovation
that would propel the worlds major industrial economies to begin finally to break
away from the current massive dependency on hydrocarbon energy sources.



In this scenario, one result of government and industry action, and new entrants in
the energy business, is that by 2020, oil no longer has a monopoly grip on the
transportation sector. Other liquid fuels derived from bio-fuels, kerogen oil shale, oil
tar sands, coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids and even solid-to-gas (methane hydrate)
technologies jostle for commercial feasibility and market share. Plug-in hybrid sources
may also begin to win market share in such a high-cost energy future,

Scenario 2 – Oil Price Break Point


SCENARIO 2 - Another outcome of high energy prices explored in detail within the Oil
Price Break Point Scenario is progress toward reducing carbon emissions. National
security concerns associated with high oil prices work hand-in-hand with concern
over climate change (see Aspe Group De laratio of E ergy I depe de e ).



Dessertec is investing in a massive Photo-voltaic array the size of Wales – deep in the
heart of the Sahara Dessert. The European Union is planning a European Super-grid
to transmit this energy to consumers. In the UK, there are advanced plans for an offshore Grid to service Wind and Wave power generation farms in the North Sea .



The result is that across the U.S., Europe, Japan and even the BRICS - Brazil, Russia,
China and India - new energy policies are embraced that expand investment in
renewable energy, nuclear and emerging carbon capture and storage technologies.
The high oil price scenario also creates strong incentives to improve global energy
efficiency. A feature of the Oil Price Break Point Scenario is that global energy
intensity (the amount of energy required to produce a unit of GDP) in 2030 is reduced
by 32 percent in comparison with the 2005 baseline.

Scenario 3 – Geo-political Fissures


SCENARIO 3 - What would happen if public opinion and government support for
globalization around the world wanes as war, terrorism, economic insecurity and
social exclusion feeds increased nationalism, isolationism and protectionism? That is
the question at the heart of the Global Geo-political Fissures Scenario – under which
energy markets could evolve in an entirely novel way as suggested in this alternative
scenario. Diminished economic growth would cause oil prices to tumble back into the
sub $50 range. In this scenario, governments assert more control over the energy
sector. The trend in the electric power industry in many countries is to move away
from competition and toward corporate responsibility with social mandates and more
regulatory intervention-in some cases, even the nationalization of assets.



Given the high stakes and uncertainty surrounding the future of energy, there is a
need for structured ways of thinking about how the future may unfold. The next 25
years will be full of surprises. Scenarios can help us better prepare for these surprises
- and perhaps even anticipate those surprises before they impact or materialize.



Daniel Yergin, chairman of CERA, e ei ed the Pulitze P ize fo The P ize: The Epi
Quest fo Oil, Mo e & Po e a d the U ited “tates E e g A a d fo lifelo g
achievements in energy and the promotion of international understanding. Vist CERA
at http://cera.ecnext.com.

Scenario 4 – Geo-political Collapse


SCENARIO 4 -- Global Geo-political Collapse Scenario - Over the next ten
years - the cost of energy of all types climbs above the rate of inflation – then
rises more steeply. Energy Prices begin to become more unstable, oscillating
wildly between High Price / Low Demand and Low Price / High Demand until the price of energy becomes so unpredictable that Energy Commodities
are no longer tradable – so that Energy markets collapse.



As a result of the Global Geo-political Collapse Scenario - societies around
the world plateau, decline and then collapse due to resource scarcity and
energy shortage. Industrial nations turn inwards to self-sufficiency based
lo alisatio e o o i st ategies a d solutio s. O l so ieties ith a ess
to sustainable natural resources - clean water, good soil, temperate climates,
sustainable agriculture, and sufficient sources of renewable energy – alone
maintain any semblance of an industrial economy - and so retain some sort
of level of civilization that we could recognize as such today.

Doug Blair - Carnegie Mellon University

The Hydrogen Economy
Trusted Renewables:

Ingenera

Jeff Goddard
Strategic Alliances Director @ Ingenera
Nigel Tebbutt
奈杰尔 泰巴德
Future Business Models & Emerging Technologies @ Ingenera

Adam Kent

Founder and MD @ enado

Trusted Renewables: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework ©

Thinking about the Future
H d oge E o o …..
Lecture Synopsis:
The Hydrogen Economy - how different will
tomorrow be?
The Third Industrial Revolution: Leading the Way to a Green
Energy Era and a Hydrogen Economy

Tarcher / Penguin

The Hydrogen Economy
Lecture Synopsis:
The Hydrogen Economy - how different will tomorrow be?
The Third Industrial Revolution: Leading the Way to a Green Energy Era and a
Hydrogen Economy

Tarcher / Penguin
Jeremy Rifkin is president of The Foundation on Economic Trends in Washington, DC.
and teaches at the Wharton School's Executive Education Program at the University of
Pennsylvania. Mr. Rifkin is currently advising the Prime Minister of Slovenia, Janez Janša,
during his presidency of the European Union (January to July 2008). Mr. Rifkin also served
as an adviser to Chancellor Angela Merkel and Prime Minister Jose Socrates of Portugal
during their respective European Council Presidencies, on issues related to the economy,
climate change, and energy security. He currently advises the European Commission, the
European Parliament, and several EU heads of state, including Prime Minister Jose Luis
Rodriguez Zapatero of Spain and Prime Minister Romano Prodi of Italy. Mr. Rifkin is the
author of seventeen books on environmental, energy and economic related issues
including The Hydrogen Economy: The Creation of the World Wide Energy Web and the
Redistribution of Power on Earth

The Hydrogen Economy


We are approaching the sunset of the oil era in the first half of the 21st century. The
price of oil on global markets continues to climb and peak global oil is within sight in
the coming decades. At the same time, the dramatic rise in carbon dioxide emissions
from the burning of fossil fuels is raising the earth's temperature and threatening an
unprecedented Global Massive Change of the planet in both the climate and ecology
of the earth, with dire consequences for the future of our ecosystems and civilization.



Global Massive Change is an evaluation of future global possibilities, capacities and
limitations. It encompasses both utopian and dystopian viewpoints of the emerging
world future state, in which climate, the environment, ecology and geology are
dominated by human manipulation: – Human impact is now the major factor in climate change.
– Species extinction rate is now greater than in the late Permian mass extinction
event in which 90% of all species were eliminated
– Man now moves more rock and earth than do all geological processes

The Hydrogen Economy


While oil, coal, and natural gas will continue to provide a substantial portion of the
world's and the European Union's energy well into the 21st century, there is a
growing consensus that we are entering a twilight period where the full costs of our
fossil fuel addiction is beginning to act as a drag on the world economy. During this
twilight era, the 27 EU member states are making every effort to ensure that the
remaining stock of fossil fuels is used more efficiently and are experimenting with
clean energy technologies to limit carbon dioxide emissions in the burning of
conventional fuels. These efforts fall in line with the EU mandate that the member
states increase energy efficiency 20 percent by 2020 and reduce their global warming
emissions 20 percent (based on 1990 levels), again by 2020.



Greater efficiencies and mandated global warming gas reductions, by themselves, are
not enough to adequately address the unprecedented crisis of global warming and
global peak oil and gas production. Looking to the future, every government will need
to explore new energy paths and establish new economic models with the goal of
achieving as close to zero carbon emissions as possible.

Economic Revolutions in History
The Sudden Convergence of New Energy and Communications Regimes.....


The great pivotal economic changes in world history have occurred when new energy
regimes converge with new communication regimes. When that convergence
happens, society is restructured in wholly new ways. In the early modern era, the
coming together of coal powered steam technology and the print press gave birth to
the first industrial revolution.



It would have been impossible to organize the dramatic increase in the pace, speed,
flow, density, and connectivity of economic activity made possible by the coal fired
steam engine using the older codex and oral forms of communication. In the late
nineteenth century and throughout the first two thirds of the twentieth century, first
generation electrical forms of communication - the telegraph, telephone, radio,
television, electric typewriters, calculators, etc - converged with the introduction of
oil and the internal combustion engine, becoming the communications command and
control mechanism for organizing and marketing the second industrial revolution.

Economic Revolutions in History




A great communications revolution occurred in the 1990s. Second generation
electrical forms of communication—personal computers, the internet, the World
Wide Web, and wireless communication technologies—connected the social
networking systems of more than a billion people on Earth at the speed of light. And,
although the new software and communication revolutions have begun to increase
productivity in every industry, their true potential is yet to be fully realized. That
potential lies in their convergence with renewable energy, partially stored in the form
of h d oge , to eate the fi st ―dist i uted e e g egi es.
The same design principles and smart technologies that made possible the internet,
and vast distributed global communication networks, will be used to reconfigure the
world's power grids so that people can produce renewable energy and share it peerto-peer, just like they now produce and share information, creating a new,
decentralized form of energy use. We need to envision a future in which millions of
individual players can collect, produce and store locally generated renewable energy
in their homes, offices, factories, and vehicles, and share their power generation with
each other across a Europe-wide intelligent intergrid. (Hydrogen is a universal storage
medium for intermittent renewable energies; just as digital is a universal storage
mechanism for text, audio, video, data and other forms of media).

The Hydrogen Economy


The question is often asked as to whether renewable energy, in the long run, can
provide enough power to run a national or global economy? Just as second
generation information systems grid technologies allow businesses to connect
thousands of desktop computers, creating far more distributed computing power
than even the most powerful centralized computers that exist, millions of local
producers of renewable energy, using hydrogen storage and intelligent utility
networks, could potentially produce far more distributed power than the older
carbon forms of energy – oil, coal, natural gas and nuclear – that we currently rely on.



The creation of a renewable energy regime, partially stored in the form of hydrogen,
and distributed via smart inter-grids, opens the door to a Third Industrial Revolution
and should have as powerful an economic multiplier effect in the 21st century as the
convergence of mass print technology with coal and steam power technology in the
19th century, and the coming together of electrical forms of communication with oil
and the internal combustion engine in the 20th century..

The Hydrogen Economy


European industry has the scientific, technological, and financial know-how
to spearhead the shift to renewable energies, a hydrogen economy, and an
intelligent power grid and, by so doing, lead the world into a new economic
era. Europe's world class automotive industry, chemical industry, engineering
industry, construction industry, software, computer and communication
industries, and banking and insurance industries, give it a leg up in the race
to the Third Industrial Revolution.



By fostering renewable energies, a hydrogen infrastructure, and a continentwide intelligent inter-grid, the European Union can help create a sustainable
economic development plan for its 500 million citizens in the first half of the
21st century. The Third Industrial Revolution will require a wholesale
reconfiguration of the transport, construction, and electricity sectors,
creating new goods and services, spawning new businesses, and providing
millions of new job.

The Hydrogen Economy


Being first to market will position the European Union as a leader in the Third
Industrial Revolution, giving it the commercial edge in the export of green
technological know-how and equipment around the world. Producing a new
generation of renewable energy technologies, manufacturing portable and
stationary fuel cells, reinventing the automobile, transforming Europe's
millions of buildings into power plants to produce renewable energy for
internal consumption or distribution back to the grid, reconfiguring the
electrical power grid as a intelligent utility network, as well as producing all
of the accompanying technologies, goods and services that make up a hightech Third Industrial Revolution economy, will have an economic multiplier
effect that stretches well toward the mid decades of the 21st century.

The Hydrogen Economy


The coming together of distributed communication technologies and
distributed renewable energies via an open access, intelligent power grid,
ep ese ts ―po e to the people‖. For a younger generation that's growing
up in a less hierarchical and more networked world, the ability to produce
and share their own energy, like they produce and share their own
information, in an open access inter-grid, will seem both natural and
commonplace.



The key challenge that every nation needs to address is where they want
their country to be in ten years from now: In the sunset energies and
industries of the second industrial revolution or the sunrise energies and
industries of the Third Industrial Revolution. The Third Industrial Revolution
is the end-game that takes the world out of the old carbon and uraniumbased energies and into a non-polluting, sustainable future for the human
race.

Smart Cities of the Future
Trusted Renewables:
Jeff Goddard
Strategic Alliances Director @ Ingenera
Nigel Tebbutt
奈杰尔 泰巴德
Future Business Models & Emerging Technologies @ Ingenera

Trusted Renewables: Strategic Enterprise Management (SEM) Framework ©

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