Texas First Foundation Redistricting Analysis - Latino Opportunity
Content
Texas House Redistricting
December, 2011
Latino Opportunity in Court-Ordered vs. Legislative Maps
A comparison of Latino opportunity districts between the legislative and court-ordered
plans shows a net increase of two seats under the court-ordered plan. Under the legislative
plan there are 33 Latino opportunity districts as measured by traditional court-approved
guidelines.
Under the court-ordered plan there are 36 Latino opportunity seats. By
comparison, the map used in the 2002-2010 elections contained 35 such districts.
In PLANH283 (H.B. 150), the legislatively enacted map, the leadership of this state
enacted a plan which kept the number of districts containing a majority of Hispanic
Citizenship Voting Age Population (HCVAP) at 30. In addition, several of these HCVAP
majority districts have been cited as possibly having a retrogressive effect because of their
substantial decrease in performance. This plan also drew four additional seats in which the
candidate of choice of the Latino community would be elected despite Latinos not being the
majority demographic in a district (HD 90- Burnam, HD 103- Anchia, HD 51- Rodriguez, HD
137- Hochberg & Vo). It is important to note that the legislatively created map contained no
new Latino opportunity seats which did not previously elect Latino candidates. This was
done despite the magnitude of Latino population growth in past decade. No matter how
one counts, there was at least one fewer Latino district, because of the elimination of
district 33 in Nueces County. In addition to this, the Legislature chose to substantially
weaken three Latino districts and imperil their ability to elect Latino candidates (HD 35 Aliseda, HD 41- Pena, HD 117 - Garza). In sum, there are no more than 34 Latino
opportunity seats in the legislative map and as few as 30 counting the districts which were
drawn to substantially underperform for a Latino preferred candidate.
In the court-ordered interim map, there are a total of 32 districts which contain an
HCVAP majority, all of which perform for the Latino preferred candidate according to
statistical regression analysis. The court also drew four more seats in which the Latino
candidate of choice will be elected despite Latino voters not being an overwhelming
majority in its district (HD 103- Anchia, HD 90- Burnam, HD 51 - Rodriguez, & HD 137 –
Hochberg). This is 36 districts, or two more than the legislatively enacted map. The two
new Latino districts are HD 78 in El Paso and HD 144 in El Paso.
The court-ordered map preserves districts 33 & 34 in Nueces County. It creates a
new district 35 in Cameron & Hidalgo Counties, ensuring that there was no retrogression in
South Texas. It also creates two new Latino opportunity seats in Houston and El Paso
counties. It increased the performance of HD 117 in Bexar to ensure that it would return to
electing the candidate of choice of the Latino community. It undid the racially
discriminatory gerrymander in Hidalgo County.
It also restored HD 149, a minority
opportunity district in Harris County. The following tables provide a detailed look at the
Latino districts under the two plans.
Table 1: Overview of Map Variances in H302 and H.B. 150
HB 150
(PLANH283)
Court-Ordered
Interim Map
(PLANH302)
HCVAP @ 50%
30
32
Districts that have elected Latinochosen candidates consistently
regardless of HCVAP level
34*
36
New Latino Opportunity Districts
-1 (elimination of
district 33)
2
* These 34 HCVAP majority districts include 4 districts that have a substantially reduced ability to
elect the Latino preferred candidate (HD 35, 41, 78, 117).
Redistricting Policy Outlook: December 2011
Page 2
Tables 2 and 3: District-by-District Comparison between H302
Latino Districts in the Court-Ordered Interim Map (H302)
District 2010
SSVR
31
42
75
40
36
76
37
38
39
35
79
41
74
77
118
78
125
124
43
117
123
33
34
80
119
116
104
143
145
144
140
148
103
90
51
137
90.26%
85.85%
81.2%
86.14%
83.8%
80.72%
78.22%
77.74%
82.46%
74.21%
69.16%
68.4%
69.57%
58.78%
57.7%
54.55%
58.35%
53.93%
64.09%
52.53%
53.59%
54.56%
54.67%
62.24%
50.69%
51.09%
50.87%
54.21%
49.92%
50.72%
46.78%
48.42%
38.96%
44.57%
38.19%
19.91%
%HVAP HCVAP Obama White Noriega Incumbents
94.9
95.1
91.8
92.1
90.8
86.7
87.1
86.7
88.0
85.1
78.7
80.4
76.6
73.4
67.1
69.3
68.5
65.3
65.0
60.4
65.9
62.9
59.9
63.1
62.2
59.6
72.3
72.3
67.7
71.9
71.2
70.9
69.1
63.9
56.4
47.7
93.1
91.4
89.0
88.4
86.0
83.1
81.5
80.2
78.9
78.9
75.9
75.7
69.4
65.5
64.6
64.0
63.8
62.5
62.3
62.0
61.0
59.5
59.3
58.6
58.1
56.8
55.6
54.5
53.0
52.8
50.8
50.6
46.8
45.4
44.1
20.7
77.05%
70.79%
74.12%
74.81%
72.85%
74.66%
67.52%
64.67%
72.35%
63.3%
64.82%
57.05%
57.91%
60.85%
53.71%
58.27%
57.75%
59.42%
51.57%
53.86%
59.21%
49.84%
49.82%
51.94%
58.24%
59.63%
68.19%
59.56%
61.62%
52.82%
68.93%
58.97%
60.52%
66.78%
80.64%
60.26%
Redistricting Policy Outlook: December 2011
75.61%
76.21%
69.29%
73.16%
69.26%
73.81%
60.79%
59.26%
71.64%
61.34%
59.55%
51.88%
55.06%
56.8%
53.17%
53.46%
55.67%
56.53%
48.52%
49.11%
59.09%
47.02%
48.4%
49.31%
56.82%
57.8%
69.94%
64.78%
66.27%
57.16%
71.26%
62.65%
58.92%
66.77%
78.7%
59.26%
81.33%
77.25%
74.4%
76.68%
72.9%
75.99%
68.52%
66.11%
73.63%
63.94%
65.17%
58.43%
58.87%
60.31%
55.72%
57.3%
58.5%
59.64%
54.11%
54.01%
58.99%
51.65%
52.32%
53.62%
59.24%
59.13%
69.98%
65.85%
67.93%
59.09%
72.44%
62.8%
60.06%
67.75%
77.08%
59.92%
Guillen - D
Raymond - D
Quintanilla - D
Peña - R
Muñoz - D
Gonzalez - D
Oliveira - D
Lucio III - D
Martinez - D
N/A
Pickett - D
Gonzales, V. - D
Gallego - D
Marquez - D
Farias - D
Margo - R
Castro - D
Menendez - D
N/A
Garza - R
Villarreal - D
Scott - R
Lozano - D
Aliseda - R
Gutierrez - D
Martinez Fischer - D
Alonzo - D
Hernandez Luna - D
Alvarado - D
Legler - R
Walle - D
Farrar - D
Anchia - D
Burnam - D
Rodriguez - D
Hochberg - D
Paired
Torres - R
King, T. - D
Page 3
Latino Opportunities in Legislative Map (H.B. 150)
District 2010
SSVR
31
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
51
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
90
103
104
116
117
118
119
123
124
125
137
140
143
145
148
91.30%
60.80%
53.40%
85.80%
78.00%
77.90%
83.10%
86.40%
64.60%
86.00%
72.40%
38.20%
69.60%
81.20%
81.30%
66.40%
47.10%
69.30%
79.00%
50.10%
38.10%
50.10%
51.60%
50.10%
60.30%
51.40%
54.30%
54.60%
59.10%
24.30%
52.20%
53.10%
51.60%
50.00%
%HVAP HCVAP Obama White
94.00%
67.70%
54.90%
92.20%
86.60%
87.30%
88.50%
93.30%
76.20%
95.10%
76.50%
56.20%
76.60%
91.80%
87.30%
78.40%
62.60%
79.90%
86.10%
71.00%
67.70%
69.20%
59.90%
62.70%
64.80%
62.70%
66.50%
66.00%
69.10%
55.30%
75.80%
73.30%
69.90%
68.90%
88.87%
64.57%
52.50%
88.71%
82.27%
80.64%
82.42%
88.97%
72.11%
91.13%
71.74%
44.05%
69.35%
89.04%
83.55%
73.37%
55.25%
76.72%
79.67%
49.71%
44.62%
51.72%
57.13%
63.79%
64.72%
58.25%
62.35%
62.44%
64.32%
26.30%
58.54%
56.98%
56.20%
51.37%
78.40%
52.60%
44.50%
75.00%
68.00%
64.10%
74.10%
74.70%
54.80%
70.60%
57.60%
80.40%
57.90%
74.10%
75.20%
69.10%
52.60%
64.50%
66.60%
69.40%
67.50%
68.80%
59.90%
51.30%
56.40%
58.60%
59.60%
59.80%
58.10%
62.80%
66.20%
64.30%
61.40%
58.30%
Redistricting Policy Outlook: December 2011
75.00%
51.00%
43.10%
73.50%
61.40%
58.70%
74.00%
73.10%
49.00%
76.20%
53.20%
78.40%
55.10%
69.30%
74.60%
66.20%
48.30%
59.30%
63.60%
69.80%
67.90%
70.00%
58.20%
46.60%
56.30%
57.40%
59.50%
56.80%
56.10%
63.70%
70.70%
69.10%
66.60%
63.00%
Noriega
80.70%
55.50%
46.70%
76.00%
69.20%
65.30%
75.40%
75.60%
56.20%
77.10%
60.00%
76.80%
58.90%
74.40%
76.50%
68.80%
51.40%
64.90%
69.90%
71.20%
66.30%
70.60%
59.40%
51.40%
58.40%
59.90%
59.50%
60.10%
58.90%
63.40%
71.00%
70.00%
67.00%
62.90%
Incumbents
Guillen - D
Torres - R
Aliseda - R
Muñoz - D
Oliveira - D
Lucio III - D
Martinez - D
Gonzales, V. - D
Peña - R
Raymond - D
Lozano - D
Rodriguez - D
Gallego - D
Quintanilla - D
Gonzalez - D
Marquez - D
Margo - R
Pickett - D
King, T. - D
Burnam - D
Anchia - D
Alonzo - D
Martinez Fischer - D
Garza - R
Farias - D
Gutierrez - D
Villarreal - D
Menendez - D
Castro - D
Vo - D
Walle - D
Hernandez Luna - D
Alvarado - D
Farrar - D
Paired
Scott - R
Hochberg - D
Page 4
December, 2011
Latino Opportunity in Court-Ordered vs. Legislative Maps
A comparison of Latino opportunity districts between the legislative and court-ordered
plans shows a net increase of two seats under the court-ordered plan. Under the legislative
plan there are 33 Latino opportunity districts as measured by traditional court-approved
guidelines.
Under the court-ordered plan there are 36 Latino opportunity seats. By
comparison, the map used in the 2002-2010 elections contained 35 such districts.
In PLANH283 (H.B. 150), the legislatively enacted map, the leadership of this state
enacted a plan which kept the number of districts containing a majority of Hispanic
Citizenship Voting Age Population (HCVAP) at 30. In addition, several of these HCVAP
majority districts have been cited as possibly having a retrogressive effect because of their
substantial decrease in performance. This plan also drew four additional seats in which the
candidate of choice of the Latino community would be elected despite Latinos not being the
majority demographic in a district (HD 90- Burnam, HD 103- Anchia, HD 51- Rodriguez, HD
137- Hochberg & Vo). It is important to note that the legislatively created map contained no
new Latino opportunity seats which did not previously elect Latino candidates. This was
done despite the magnitude of Latino population growth in past decade. No matter how
one counts, there was at least one fewer Latino district, because of the elimination of
district 33 in Nueces County. In addition to this, the Legislature chose to substantially
weaken three Latino districts and imperil their ability to elect Latino candidates (HD 35 Aliseda, HD 41- Pena, HD 117 - Garza). In sum, there are no more than 34 Latino
opportunity seats in the legislative map and as few as 30 counting the districts which were
drawn to substantially underperform for a Latino preferred candidate.
In the court-ordered interim map, there are a total of 32 districts which contain an
HCVAP majority, all of which perform for the Latino preferred candidate according to
statistical regression analysis. The court also drew four more seats in which the Latino
candidate of choice will be elected despite Latino voters not being an overwhelming
majority in its district (HD 103- Anchia, HD 90- Burnam, HD 51 - Rodriguez, & HD 137 –
Hochberg). This is 36 districts, or two more than the legislatively enacted map. The two
new Latino districts are HD 78 in El Paso and HD 144 in El Paso.
The court-ordered map preserves districts 33 & 34 in Nueces County. It creates a
new district 35 in Cameron & Hidalgo Counties, ensuring that there was no retrogression in
South Texas. It also creates two new Latino opportunity seats in Houston and El Paso
counties. It increased the performance of HD 117 in Bexar to ensure that it would return to
electing the candidate of choice of the Latino community. It undid the racially
discriminatory gerrymander in Hidalgo County.
It also restored HD 149, a minority
opportunity district in Harris County. The following tables provide a detailed look at the
Latino districts under the two plans.
Table 1: Overview of Map Variances in H302 and H.B. 150
HB 150
(PLANH283)
Court-Ordered
Interim Map
(PLANH302)
HCVAP @ 50%
30
32
Districts that have elected Latinochosen candidates consistently
regardless of HCVAP level
34*
36
New Latino Opportunity Districts
-1 (elimination of
district 33)
2
* These 34 HCVAP majority districts include 4 districts that have a substantially reduced ability to
elect the Latino preferred candidate (HD 35, 41, 78, 117).
Redistricting Policy Outlook: December 2011
Page 2
Tables 2 and 3: District-by-District Comparison between H302
Latino Districts in the Court-Ordered Interim Map (H302)
District 2010
SSVR
31
42
75
40
36
76
37
38
39
35
79
41
74
77
118
78
125
124
43
117
123
33
34
80
119
116
104
143
145
144
140
148
103
90
51
137
90.26%
85.85%
81.2%
86.14%
83.8%
80.72%
78.22%
77.74%
82.46%
74.21%
69.16%
68.4%
69.57%
58.78%
57.7%
54.55%
58.35%
53.93%
64.09%
52.53%
53.59%
54.56%
54.67%
62.24%
50.69%
51.09%
50.87%
54.21%
49.92%
50.72%
46.78%
48.42%
38.96%
44.57%
38.19%
19.91%
%HVAP HCVAP Obama White Noriega Incumbents
94.9
95.1
91.8
92.1
90.8
86.7
87.1
86.7
88.0
85.1
78.7
80.4
76.6
73.4
67.1
69.3
68.5
65.3
65.0
60.4
65.9
62.9
59.9
63.1
62.2
59.6
72.3
72.3
67.7
71.9
71.2
70.9
69.1
63.9
56.4
47.7
93.1
91.4
89.0
88.4
86.0
83.1
81.5
80.2
78.9
78.9
75.9
75.7
69.4
65.5
64.6
64.0
63.8
62.5
62.3
62.0
61.0
59.5
59.3
58.6
58.1
56.8
55.6
54.5
53.0
52.8
50.8
50.6
46.8
45.4
44.1
20.7
77.05%
70.79%
74.12%
74.81%
72.85%
74.66%
67.52%
64.67%
72.35%
63.3%
64.82%
57.05%
57.91%
60.85%
53.71%
58.27%
57.75%
59.42%
51.57%
53.86%
59.21%
49.84%
49.82%
51.94%
58.24%
59.63%
68.19%
59.56%
61.62%
52.82%
68.93%
58.97%
60.52%
66.78%
80.64%
60.26%
Redistricting Policy Outlook: December 2011
75.61%
76.21%
69.29%
73.16%
69.26%
73.81%
60.79%
59.26%
71.64%
61.34%
59.55%
51.88%
55.06%
56.8%
53.17%
53.46%
55.67%
56.53%
48.52%
49.11%
59.09%
47.02%
48.4%
49.31%
56.82%
57.8%
69.94%
64.78%
66.27%
57.16%
71.26%
62.65%
58.92%
66.77%
78.7%
59.26%
81.33%
77.25%
74.4%
76.68%
72.9%
75.99%
68.52%
66.11%
73.63%
63.94%
65.17%
58.43%
58.87%
60.31%
55.72%
57.3%
58.5%
59.64%
54.11%
54.01%
58.99%
51.65%
52.32%
53.62%
59.24%
59.13%
69.98%
65.85%
67.93%
59.09%
72.44%
62.8%
60.06%
67.75%
77.08%
59.92%
Guillen - D
Raymond - D
Quintanilla - D
Peña - R
Muñoz - D
Gonzalez - D
Oliveira - D
Lucio III - D
Martinez - D
N/A
Pickett - D
Gonzales, V. - D
Gallego - D
Marquez - D
Farias - D
Margo - R
Castro - D
Menendez - D
N/A
Garza - R
Villarreal - D
Scott - R
Lozano - D
Aliseda - R
Gutierrez - D
Martinez Fischer - D
Alonzo - D
Hernandez Luna - D
Alvarado - D
Legler - R
Walle - D
Farrar - D
Anchia - D
Burnam - D
Rodriguez - D
Hochberg - D
Paired
Torres - R
King, T. - D
Page 3
Latino Opportunities in Legislative Map (H.B. 150)
District 2010
SSVR
31
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
51
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
90
103
104
116
117
118
119
123
124
125
137
140
143
145
148
91.30%
60.80%
53.40%
85.80%
78.00%
77.90%
83.10%
86.40%
64.60%
86.00%
72.40%
38.20%
69.60%
81.20%
81.30%
66.40%
47.10%
69.30%
79.00%
50.10%
38.10%
50.10%
51.60%
50.10%
60.30%
51.40%
54.30%
54.60%
59.10%
24.30%
52.20%
53.10%
51.60%
50.00%
%HVAP HCVAP Obama White
94.00%
67.70%
54.90%
92.20%
86.60%
87.30%
88.50%
93.30%
76.20%
95.10%
76.50%
56.20%
76.60%
91.80%
87.30%
78.40%
62.60%
79.90%
86.10%
71.00%
67.70%
69.20%
59.90%
62.70%
64.80%
62.70%
66.50%
66.00%
69.10%
55.30%
75.80%
73.30%
69.90%
68.90%
88.87%
64.57%
52.50%
88.71%
82.27%
80.64%
82.42%
88.97%
72.11%
91.13%
71.74%
44.05%
69.35%
89.04%
83.55%
73.37%
55.25%
76.72%
79.67%
49.71%
44.62%
51.72%
57.13%
63.79%
64.72%
58.25%
62.35%
62.44%
64.32%
26.30%
58.54%
56.98%
56.20%
51.37%
78.40%
52.60%
44.50%
75.00%
68.00%
64.10%
74.10%
74.70%
54.80%
70.60%
57.60%
80.40%
57.90%
74.10%
75.20%
69.10%
52.60%
64.50%
66.60%
69.40%
67.50%
68.80%
59.90%
51.30%
56.40%
58.60%
59.60%
59.80%
58.10%
62.80%
66.20%
64.30%
61.40%
58.30%
Redistricting Policy Outlook: December 2011
75.00%
51.00%
43.10%
73.50%
61.40%
58.70%
74.00%
73.10%
49.00%
76.20%
53.20%
78.40%
55.10%
69.30%
74.60%
66.20%
48.30%
59.30%
63.60%
69.80%
67.90%
70.00%
58.20%
46.60%
56.30%
57.40%
59.50%
56.80%
56.10%
63.70%
70.70%
69.10%
66.60%
63.00%
Noriega
80.70%
55.50%
46.70%
76.00%
69.20%
65.30%
75.40%
75.60%
56.20%
77.10%
60.00%
76.80%
58.90%
74.40%
76.50%
68.80%
51.40%
64.90%
69.90%
71.20%
66.30%
70.60%
59.40%
51.40%
58.40%
59.90%
59.50%
60.10%
58.90%
63.40%
71.00%
70.00%
67.00%
62.90%
Incumbents
Guillen - D
Torres - R
Aliseda - R
Muñoz - D
Oliveira - D
Lucio III - D
Martinez - D
Gonzales, V. - D
Peña - R
Raymond - D
Lozano - D
Rodriguez - D
Gallego - D
Quintanilla - D
Gonzalez - D
Marquez - D
Margo - R
Pickett - D
King, T. - D
Burnam - D
Anchia - D
Alonzo - D
Martinez Fischer - D
Garza - R
Farias - D
Gutierrez - D
Villarreal - D
Menendez - D
Castro - D
Vo - D
Walle - D
Hernandez Luna - D
Alvarado - D
Farrar - D
Paired
Scott - R
Hochberg - D
Page 4
