Westpack JUN 16 Mornng Report
Content
Wednesday Wednesd ay 16 June 2010
Morning Report News and views
Foreign Exchange Market Previous Range Asia
Today’s Open
Overnight
Expected
8.00am NZD cross Range Today
NZD
0.6929-0.6976 0.6929-0.69 76 0.6887-0.6 0.6887-0.6984 984 0.6990
AUD
0.8547-0.8619 0.8547-0.861 9 0.8506-0.8 0.8506-0.8650 650 0.8653 0.8078 0.8600-0.8700
63.920
91.00-92.00
EUR
1.2195-1.2257 1.2168-1.2350 1.2345 0.5662
1.2300-1.2420
GBP
1.4730-1.4774 1.4682-1.4838 1.4821 0.4716 1.4750-1.4880
JPY
91.41-91.70
91.08-91.59 91.45
0.6920-0.7020
The USD index fell in line with the bullish risk sentiment.EUR sentiment. EUR rose from 1.2170 to 1.2350, the poor ZEW analyst survey hardly interrupting the rally. USD/JPY ground from 91.10 to 91.50.
NZ Domestic Market (Previous day’s closing rates) Cash Curve
Govt Stock
Swap Rates (Qtrly)
Cash
2.75%
Nov-11
3.73%
30 Days
2.93%
Apr-13
4.34%
60 Days
3.00%
90 Days
3.09%
Apr-15
4.81%
180 Days
3.29%
Dec-17
5.25%
1 Year
3.73%
May-21
5.48%
1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years 7 Years 10 Years
Risk markets shrugged off the previous day’s bearish Moody’s/Greece news and pushed higher from the European open. The S&P500 is currently up 2.1%, back to 19 May levels, and breaking above the 200d moving average (the market has been fixated by this indicator for the past few weeks). The VIX (risk aversion) index moved 10% lower. The CRB commodities index rose 1.4%, oil surging 2.5%. There was no obvious catalyst for the move, US data mixed. Spain and Ireland’s government tbill and bond issues were completed, but the bond markets had yet to price in the Greek downgrade (it was announced after the previous European close) so that yields for government debt surged: 10yr Greece up 74bp, Portugal 23bp, Ireland 21bp, and Spain 6bp (fresh two year high). As a comparison, Germany rose 4bp. US 10yr treasury bonds are 5bp higher in yield.
3.78% 4.31% 4.60% 4.83% 4.99% 5.30% 5.59%
World Bourses and Indices AUD Cash 90 Day 3 Year Bond 10 Year Bond
4.50% 4.91% 4.85% 5.38%
0.00 +0.01 +0.03 +0.01
USD Fed Funds 3 Mth Libor 10 Year Notes 30 Year Bonds
0.00-0.25% 0.54% 0.00 3.31% +0.05 4.22% +0.03
NZX 50 S&P/ASX200 Nikkei FT100 S&P500
3043.9 4505.0 9887.9 5217.8 1113.8
+1.2 -0.5 +8.0 +15.7 +24.1
CRB Gold Copper Fut. Oil (WTI) NZ TWI
263.5 1235.7 302.25 76.82 67.37
+3.5 +13.0 +5.25 +1.85 -0.03
Upcoming Events Date Country Release Last Forecast 16 Jun NZ Q2 Consumer Confidence 114.7 – Aus Apr Leading Index 6m ann’lsd% 8.7% – Q1 Dwelling Commencements 14.5% 5.0% US May Producer Prices –0.1% –0.9% May PPI Core 0.2% 0.0% May Housing Starts 5.8% –5.0% May Housing Permits –10.9% 0.0% May Industrial Production 0.8% 1.2% Jpn BoJ Monthly Report Apr Tertiary Industry Index 0.9% – Eur May CPI (F) %yr 1.6%a 1.6% Q1 Labour Costs %yr 2.2% 2.1% UK May Unemployment Change –27k –25k May Consumer Confidence 74 72 17 Jun US May Consumer Price Index –0.1% –0.1% May Core CPI 0.0% 0.0% Q1 Current Account Balance $bn –115.6 –121.8 Jun Philadelphia Fed Index 21.4 17.0
AUD followed global sentiment and rose from 0.8510 to 0.8660, the second attempt on this resistance over the past two days. NZD didn’t quite reach yesterday’s height, rising from 0.6890 to 0.6995. AUD/NZD ground higher with improved global sentiment from 1.2340 to 1.2380. US NY Fed index about steady at 19.6 in June. The last 2 monthly readings for the Empire State index have been down on the previous 3 months in the 20s and 30s, providing further evidence that the US industrial sector might be entering a period of moderating growth in the middle of 2010. In June, the detail showed orders up 3 pts to 18 (but still well below the recent 29 peak); shipments up 8 pts to 19 (from 32 peak) and jobs down 10 pts to 12. US external sector update: Import prices fell 0.6% in May, due to lower petroleum prices; export prices rise 0.7%. In April, net long term capital flows into the US were $83bn although total net flows were less at $15bn. US NAHB housing market index fell from 22 to 17 in June, the weakest reading for homebuilder sentiment since March and more evidence that the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit is weighing on housing activity. Bank of Japan: no move in rates, but another fund supplying vehicle announced. “Today, the Bank decided, as a temporary measure, to introduce a new fund-provisioning framework to support, from the financial side, private financial institutions’ efforts of their own accord toward strengthening the foundations for economic growth.” This framework will allow for the provision of funds at the policy rate for terms up to one year that may be rolled over up to 3 times. We see this as another passive effort to stimulate the economy, as it relies on the banking system acting as an intermediary. German ZEW analysts’ survey plunges 17.1 pts to 28.7 in June. That is the eight fall recorded in the past 9 months, and the steepest since the dark days of late 2008. It indicates that analysts have sharply downgraded their growth expectations, most likely due to concern that German export markets elsewhere in Europe will be weakened by fiscal austerity plans; however the separate current index improved from –22 to –8, its highest since late 2008. Euroland trade surplus €1.4bn in April, after a brief return to deficit in March. Exports fell 2.4% but imports were down by 3.5%. UK CPI eases from 3.7% yr to 3.4% yr in May, due to last year’s booze and fags excise increase dropping out of the annual pace, and with energy prices easing last month. The core CPI eased from 3.1% yr to 2.9% yr in May, adding weight to the view that April may have been the peak for the CPI this year. UK house price update: The government’s DCLG index showed 10.1% yr prices growth in April, while the RICS house price balance improved from 19% to 22% in May. Canadian labour market productivity grew 0.7% in Q1, slower than Q4’s 1.2% but those two quarters follow more than two years of almost persistent productivity decline from mid 2007. April manufacturing sales rose 0.2%, their eighth month running without a decline.
Outlook AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: Commodities should be supported by the positive global tone today. AUD resistance at 0.8660 is pivotal, while for NZD it is 0.7020. Supports lie at 0.8500 and 0.6900 respective ly. Imre Speizer, Senior Market Strategist, NZ, Ph: (04) 470 8266 With contributions from Westpac Economics
Great news! You can now access charts of foreign exchange rates, interest rates and equity indices – all at the touch of a button! Visit www.wib.westpac.co.nz/charts to find out more. Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 16 June 2010. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in c haracter. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
Morning Report News and views
Foreign Exchange Market Previous Range Asia
Today’s Open
Overnight
Expected
8.00am NZD cross Range Today
NZD
0.6929-0.6976 0.6929-0.69 76 0.6887-0.6 0.6887-0.6984 984 0.6990
AUD
0.8547-0.8619 0.8547-0.861 9 0.8506-0.8 0.8506-0.8650 650 0.8653 0.8078 0.8600-0.8700
63.920
91.00-92.00
EUR
1.2195-1.2257 1.2168-1.2350 1.2345 0.5662
1.2300-1.2420
GBP
1.4730-1.4774 1.4682-1.4838 1.4821 0.4716 1.4750-1.4880
JPY
91.41-91.70
91.08-91.59 91.45
0.6920-0.7020
The USD index fell in line with the bullish risk sentiment.EUR sentiment. EUR rose from 1.2170 to 1.2350, the poor ZEW analyst survey hardly interrupting the rally. USD/JPY ground from 91.10 to 91.50.
NZ Domestic Market (Previous day’s closing rates) Cash Curve
Govt Stock
Swap Rates (Qtrly)
Cash
2.75%
Nov-11
3.73%
30 Days
2.93%
Apr-13
4.34%
60 Days
3.00%
90 Days
3.09%
Apr-15
4.81%
180 Days
3.29%
Dec-17
5.25%
1 Year
3.73%
May-21
5.48%
1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years 7 Years 10 Years
Risk markets shrugged off the previous day’s bearish Moody’s/Greece news and pushed higher from the European open. The S&P500 is currently up 2.1%, back to 19 May levels, and breaking above the 200d moving average (the market has been fixated by this indicator for the past few weeks). The VIX (risk aversion) index moved 10% lower. The CRB commodities index rose 1.4%, oil surging 2.5%. There was no obvious catalyst for the move, US data mixed. Spain and Ireland’s government tbill and bond issues were completed, but the bond markets had yet to price in the Greek downgrade (it was announced after the previous European close) so that yields for government debt surged: 10yr Greece up 74bp, Portugal 23bp, Ireland 21bp, and Spain 6bp (fresh two year high). As a comparison, Germany rose 4bp. US 10yr treasury bonds are 5bp higher in yield.
3.78% 4.31% 4.60% 4.83% 4.99% 5.30% 5.59%
World Bourses and Indices AUD Cash 90 Day 3 Year Bond 10 Year Bond
4.50% 4.91% 4.85% 5.38%
0.00 +0.01 +0.03 +0.01
USD Fed Funds 3 Mth Libor 10 Year Notes 30 Year Bonds
0.00-0.25% 0.54% 0.00 3.31% +0.05 4.22% +0.03
NZX 50 S&P/ASX200 Nikkei FT100 S&P500
3043.9 4505.0 9887.9 5217.8 1113.8
+1.2 -0.5 +8.0 +15.7 +24.1
CRB Gold Copper Fut. Oil (WTI) NZ TWI
263.5 1235.7 302.25 76.82 67.37
+3.5 +13.0 +5.25 +1.85 -0.03
Upcoming Events Date Country Release Last Forecast 16 Jun NZ Q2 Consumer Confidence 114.7 – Aus Apr Leading Index 6m ann’lsd% 8.7% – Q1 Dwelling Commencements 14.5% 5.0% US May Producer Prices –0.1% –0.9% May PPI Core 0.2% 0.0% May Housing Starts 5.8% –5.0% May Housing Permits –10.9% 0.0% May Industrial Production 0.8% 1.2% Jpn BoJ Monthly Report Apr Tertiary Industry Index 0.9% – Eur May CPI (F) %yr 1.6%a 1.6% Q1 Labour Costs %yr 2.2% 2.1% UK May Unemployment Change –27k –25k May Consumer Confidence 74 72 17 Jun US May Consumer Price Index –0.1% –0.1% May Core CPI 0.0% 0.0% Q1 Current Account Balance $bn –115.6 –121.8 Jun Philadelphia Fed Index 21.4 17.0
AUD followed global sentiment and rose from 0.8510 to 0.8660, the second attempt on this resistance over the past two days. NZD didn’t quite reach yesterday’s height, rising from 0.6890 to 0.6995. AUD/NZD ground higher with improved global sentiment from 1.2340 to 1.2380. US NY Fed index about steady at 19.6 in June. The last 2 monthly readings for the Empire State index have been down on the previous 3 months in the 20s and 30s, providing further evidence that the US industrial sector might be entering a period of moderating growth in the middle of 2010. In June, the detail showed orders up 3 pts to 18 (but still well below the recent 29 peak); shipments up 8 pts to 19 (from 32 peak) and jobs down 10 pts to 12. US external sector update: Import prices fell 0.6% in May, due to lower petroleum prices; export prices rise 0.7%. In April, net long term capital flows into the US were $83bn although total net flows were less at $15bn. US NAHB housing market index fell from 22 to 17 in June, the weakest reading for homebuilder sentiment since March and more evidence that the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit is weighing on housing activity. Bank of Japan: no move in rates, but another fund supplying vehicle announced. “Today, the Bank decided, as a temporary measure, to introduce a new fund-provisioning framework to support, from the financial side, private financial institutions’ efforts of their own accord toward strengthening the foundations for economic growth.” This framework will allow for the provision of funds at the policy rate for terms up to one year that may be rolled over up to 3 times. We see this as another passive effort to stimulate the economy, as it relies on the banking system acting as an intermediary. German ZEW analysts’ survey plunges 17.1 pts to 28.7 in June. That is the eight fall recorded in the past 9 months, and the steepest since the dark days of late 2008. It indicates that analysts have sharply downgraded their growth expectations, most likely due to concern that German export markets elsewhere in Europe will be weakened by fiscal austerity plans; however the separate current index improved from –22 to –8, its highest since late 2008. Euroland trade surplus €1.4bn in April, after a brief return to deficit in March. Exports fell 2.4% but imports were down by 3.5%. UK CPI eases from 3.7% yr to 3.4% yr in May, due to last year’s booze and fags excise increase dropping out of the annual pace, and with energy prices easing last month. The core CPI eased from 3.1% yr to 2.9% yr in May, adding weight to the view that April may have been the peak for the CPI this year. UK house price update: The government’s DCLG index showed 10.1% yr prices growth in April, while the RICS house price balance improved from 19% to 22% in May. Canadian labour market productivity grew 0.7% in Q1, slower than Q4’s 1.2% but those two quarters follow more than two years of almost persistent productivity decline from mid 2007. April manufacturing sales rose 0.2%, their eighth month running without a decline.
Outlook AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: Commodities should be supported by the positive global tone today. AUD resistance at 0.8660 is pivotal, while for NZD it is 0.7020. Supports lie at 0.8500 and 0.6900 respective ly. Imre Speizer, Senior Market Strategist, NZ, Ph: (04) 470 8266 With contributions from Westpac Economics
Great news! You can now access charts of foreign exchange rates, interest rates and equity indices – all at the touch of a button! Visit www.wib.westpac.co.nz/charts to find out more. Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 16 June 2010. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in c haracter. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
