13 to 20 Interest Rate Risk Management

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Managing Interest Rate Risk Module -5 Session No. 13 to 20

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Interest rate risk management


.and bank profitability .and measure of risk the behavior of interest rates





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Bank profitability


Net interest income



Net interest margin

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.and Measures of risk


Assets liability sensibility Sensitivity mismatch The sensitivity gap





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.behavior of interest rates
Interest rate risk is the risk that banks earnings will be aversely influenced by unanticipated changes in interest rates.  Interest rate risk depends on


The degree to which bank assets and liabilities are interest rate sensitive

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ALM approach for Interest Rate Risk Management

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ALM approach
    

Bank create assets and liabilities of different maturities and sizes Priced differently NII ReRe-pricing concept- Assets and liabilities falls conceptdue for re-pricing on different dates reBanks assets and liabilities are seldom matched by size and maturity- mismatch or gap maturityCause interest rate risk - explain with example

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Concept of RSA and RSL
Any investment, loan, deposit, liability, assets that matures during the bucket period ( any principal payment expected during the bucket period)  Floating rate deposit or advances- if the advanceschange is expected in the base rate during the bucket period since change in base rate will lead to re-pricing re
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Measure Interest rate risk Three approaches
GAP analysis  Earning at risk approach  Risk adjusted GAP approach  Duration GAP analysis


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Measure Interest rate risk GAP approach
Identify RSA and RSL  Under stand positive gap or negative gap  Gap can be expressed in three ways


Negative or positive (absolute figures) Ratio of gap to RSA Ratio of RSA and RSL

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Case study ALM
Assets /Liabilities 1- 28 days 29 days to 3 months > 3 months to 6 months > 6 months to 1 year More than one year Nonsensitive Total

Cash

20

20

Balance with RBI (CRL)

100

100

Inter bank deposit

20

20

Investments

180

100

80

100

500

960

Loan and advances

1200

300

320

400

600

2820

Premises, stationery etc. TOTAL 1400 400 400 500 1100

600 720

600 4520

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Case study ALM
Current deposit 20 30 50

Saving deposit

180

370

550

Term deposit

100

100

150

50

500

900

Certificate of deposit

100

50

50

200

Borrowings

920

250

450

200

200

2020

Other liabilities

100

100

Net worth TOTAL Gap Cumulative gap 1320 80 80 400 0 80 650 -250 -170 250 250 80 1100 0 80

700 800 -80 0

700 4520 0 0

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ALM approach- Gap analysis approachGap Positive Positive Negative Negative
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Interest rate change Increase Decrease Increase Decrease

Impact on NII Positive Negative Negative Positive
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Measure Interest rate risk GAP Ratio
Bank A Total assets RSA RSL GAP GAP Ratio (RSA/RSL) NII Decrease in interest rate Change in NII ( GAP X Change in interest rate)
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Bank B 1000 400 200 200 2 400 2% -4

1000 40 20 20 2 200 2% -0.4

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Gap analysis- Merit analysisCommonly

used Easy to understand Risk sensitive assets and liabilities can be identified and GAP easily calculated
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Gap analysis- Weakness analysis  



Assumption that all position matures or re priced simultaneously Ignore basis risk serious measurement error Ignore time value of money cash flow arise at the beginning of the bucket or at the end of the bucket period Rate sensitive liability that bear no interest are ignored but in practice when interest move up customer may move no interest deposit to interest earning deposits
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Gap analysis- Weakness analysisOption embedded assets and liabilities premature discounting of deposits and prepaying of loans- They alter the GAP loansand also the NII  Do not capture non interest revenue and interest due to interest rate fluctuations


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Basis risk- Case study riskLiabilities Amount Interest change (%) Assets Amount Interest change (%) 30 .10

Inter bank

50

.01 Investments

deposit

100

.50 Loans

120

.25

Borrowings

50

.10

Gap (-) (-

50

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Measuring interest rate risk Earning at Risk Approach
 





Project interest rate movement assuming various interest rate environments Assess the likelihood that assets and liabilities would be re-priced under each of identified reenvironment Calculate NII in each environment and allow management to set limit for NIM in each environment Test earning at risk (EAR)

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Measuring interest rate risk Rate adjusted GAP
Used when assets and liabilities are not dramatically change in the short term  Assess the GAP for all item of balance sheet  Calculate EVF (Earning volatility factor)  Calculate Income statement GAP  Calculate impact on NII


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Measuring interest rate risk Rate adjusted GAP
Base rate fall by 100bps Balance sheet Demand liabilities Time liabilities Total RSL Loans Investments Other assets Total RSA GAP Total assets GAP as % of total assets
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EVF (assumed) 75% 85% 100% 75% 95%

Income statement GAP 300 340 640 400 150 95 645 5 1000 0.5
21 -0.05

400 400 800 400 200 100 700 -100 1000 10 1

Duration GAP analysis
Measure of long term interest rate risk  Focus on entire life of assets and liabilities  Duration is average life of an asset or liability and is measured as weighted average time to maturity using present value of cash flow relative to total present value of assets or liability as weight


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Duration GAP analysis
     

Calculate duration of various RSA and RSL Calculate weighted average duration of liabilities Calculate weighted average duration of assets Calculate duration GAP(DGAP) Calculate expected NII Forecast changes in bank s MVE under various interest rate environments

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Duration GAP analysis
Interest rate risk can be understood from mismatch between duration of assets and liabilities and also by duration GAP  Change in interest rate would impact market value of assets and liabilities with different amount. This would impact NII and MVE


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Revisit the concepts for ALM Interest rate risk
Mismatch or Gap risk  Basis risk  Embedded option risk  Reinvestment risk  Price risk- Investments risk Non paying liabilities


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Interest Rate Risk Management Key take away
    

Bank need to forecast interest rate movement Aggressive strategy is to keep the gap position open where it is profitable or To keep the gap ZERO ( with some tolerance level) so that NII is protected DO behavioral analysis of customers to safeguard against embedded option risk Know impact on MVE through duration gap analysis for long term perspective
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Alternate approach to Interest Rate Risk Management

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Financial derivatives
     

Contingent contracts Underlying assets like currency, stock indices, interest rate instruments, commodities etc. Pricing and trading is complex and prone to high risk Shift the risk from seller to buyer Improve the liquidity of underlying instruments Hedger use derivatives to protect their assets from erosion in value due to market volatility
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Interest rate derivatives (IRD)
Used to hedge the position that expose them to risk
Negative or positive gap

Tool to actively manage interest rate risk
Complement existing strategies to immunizing the volatility of earnings and MVE to changes in interest rates

Used to lower credit risk and add liquidity also Will discuss some widely used concepts

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Interest rate swaps (IRS)
Instrument to manage interest rate risk An OTC contract An agreement to exchange fixed interest to floating or floating to fix for a period ( start date and end date) May also have BASIS swaps pay MIBOR and receive LIBOR pricing of swap is dependent on forecasting interest rates Credit risk in swap management is limited to interest payment
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Swap deals
Firm A B Fixed rate 12% 10% Floating Rate PLR+2% PLR+0.5%

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Swap deals
A Firm Pay to lender Receive from other Pay to other Net effect
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B Firm 10% 9.75% to A PLR from A PLR+ 0.25% floating
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PLR + 2% PLR from B 9.75% from A 11.75% fixed

Advantage of swap to B
Asset liability is matched  Cost is reduced in floating market  Eliminate interest rate risk  It constituted a off balance sheet transaction


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Advantage of swap to A
Asset liability is matched  Lower cost from fixed rate market  Capacity to borrow from fixed rate market remain intact  It constituted a off balance sheet transaction


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Interest rate swaps
In practice it is not possible to find two parties with opposite need hence intermediaries are engaged  Intermediary share the profits also  Major swap market players are banks, intermediaries and corporate  Swap tenor are normally independent to loan tenor

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Interest rate swaps (IRS)
Bank can use IRS for Adjusting rate sensitivity of assets and liability Creating synthetic transaction and securities Adjusting GAP or duration GAP Liability sensitive bank can enter into swap where it pays fixed rate and receive floating rate Asset sensitive bank can enter into swap agreement where it pay floating rate and received fixed rate
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Interest rate future


Legal agreement to buy or sell something at predetermined price on predetermined time
 Future price  Future settlement or delivery date







Future contracts are traded in recognized exchanges which assumes responsibility of settlement When underlying security is interest bearing security it is known as interest rate future say 90 days treasury bills Transfer interest rate risk from hedger to speculator
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Interest rate future


Asset Sensitive
 Buy interest rate future if it expects interest rates to fall  Sell interest rate future if it expects interest rates to rise

Gap

Interest rate change Increase

Impact on NII Positive

Positive

Positive

Decrease

Negative



Liability sensitive
 Sell interest rate future if it expects interest rates to fall  Buy interest rate future if it expects interest rates to rise Negative Increase Negative

Negative

Decrease

Positive

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Interest rate future- issues futureContract size and maturities are standardized hence it may be difficult to find matching hedge  Monitoring of position on daily basis is essential as settlement takes place every day by mark to market method


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Forward rate agreement (FRA)
        

An OTC contract Resemble a swap agreement but difference is that it is single settlement vs series of settlement Agreement to settle interest rate differentials Typical forward contract Notional principal amount and no commitment to borrow or lend by parties Buyer to pay fixed and receive floating Seller to pay floating and receive fixed Cash settlement is done if actual rate of interest differ to forecasted rates Bank use FRA to lock in fixed interest rate expenses ( deposits) to floating rate deposits or fixed interest rate advances to floating rate advances

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Fixed Income securities

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Fixed income securities
Equity and Bonds are two major capital market instruments  Bonds fall under fixed income securities  Example 9.25% GOI securities 2015  Generate fixed coupon income till maturity  Not changed despite change in interest rates

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Bond price-Sensitivity priceInflation  GDP growth  Liquidity in market  Interest rates  Fiscal policies  Unemployment  Money supply

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Bond Valuation
    

Interest rate for residual term of maturity keep changing Value of bonds rests on movement of interest rates When market rate and coupon rate are same, bonds trade at par When market rate rises over coupon rate, bonds trade at discount and When market rate falls over coupon rate bonds trade at premium
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Bond theorems
Price of bond is inversely relates to the yield  Increase in price of bond when interest rate goes down by certain % is greater than decrease in its price when interest rates goes up by the same %- This is %called convexity


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Bonds theorems
Longer the term to maturity of a bond higher will be its price sensitivity  Between two bonds of same maturity but different coupons, the bond will lower coupon will experience more price sensitivity than with higher coupon


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Duration
 

 

Reinvestment of coupons also generate income Two opposite effects: Fall in price of bonds due to rise in interest rates and extra income generated due to reinvestments of coupon may get neutralize during life of security Measured through weighted average life of a fixed income security It is also a measure of price sensitivity measure of a bond to changes in interest rates
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Modified duration
Duration does not accurately changes in price of bonds arising from larger changes in interest rates  Hence modified duration  = Duration/ 1+ yield


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Banks investments portfolio


Classified into three category
Held till maturity ( up to 25% of bank s total investments) Held for trading ( acquired with intention to sale) Available for sale ( which do not fall under above category) HFT security are to be sold within 90 days

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Banks investments portfolio Valuation method


Held till maturity
Need not be marked to market but banks investment in subsidiary or joint ventures when diminished has to be provided for



Held for trading
Marked to market with monthly or more frequent intervals



Available for sale
Marked to market with quarterly or more frequent intervals

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Investment reserves
Provision for depreciation in AFS and HFT in excess of required amount in any year should be credit to P & L account and same amount transferred to Reserve & Surplus  Included in Tier 2 capital of the bank  Investment fluctuations reserves @ minimum 5% of investment portfolio ( only HFT and AFS)

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Mark to market procedure
Quoted securities as per latest quotes in stock exchange, prices declared by FIMMDA or RBI  Unquoted


Price or YTM published by FIMMDA Sate government securities based on YTM and marked 25 bps above the yield of central government securities

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