138316034 Accident in Bangladesh

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Chapter 1: Introduction
Chapter 1
Introduction
1.0: Preface
Worldwide over 1.2 million people die per annum due to road traffic accidents,
the 6
th
cause of death according to World Health Organisation WHO, 2!!"#.
$he %nited &ations has declared this an issue of great concern. $he purpose of
this thesis is to report on an anal'sis into this area with depth stud' into causes
of road traffic accidents and conse(uent casualties in )angladesh and
comparing )angladesh to other countries. *ccording to world report on traffic
in+ur' prevention,2!!", road traffic accidents as the 6
th
place was the -
th
in
1--!# of a ma+or cause of death worldwide, will rise to .ecome the /
rd
leading
cause of 0*12s 0isa.ilit' *d+usted 1ife 2ears# lost .' 2!2!3 the 2
nd
leading
cause of 0*12s lost for low and middle income countries3 fatalities will increase
worldwide from !.--,2./" million representing /."4 of all deaths#3 fatalities will
increase on average .' over 5!4 in low,income and middle,income countries
and decline .' almost /!4 in high,income countries3 0*12s lost will increase
worldwide from /"./,61.2 million representing 7.14 of the glo.al .urden of
disease#.
1
Chapter 1: Introduction
8igure, 1.!: 9ro+ected change in ran:ing of some leading causes of death and disease, 1--!,2!2!
;ource: WHO <$he =lo.al )urden of 0isease<#
*ccording to >a:e ?oads ;afer @a campaign for ma:ing )angladeshAs road
safer 2!!5#, a crash occurs in ever' 7 seconds3 a propert' damage crash
occurs in ever' 6 seconds3 a traffic related in+ur' in ever' 1! seconds3 an
alcohol related in+ur' in ever' 2 minutes3 someone dies in a crash in ever' 12
minutes and an alcohol,related fatalit' occurs in ever' /1 minutes glo.all'.
?oad traffic accidents with casualties are causing great concern regarding
communications within )angladesh. $he road safet' situation in )angladesh
has .een deteriorating with increasing num.er of road accident deaths, largel'
as direct conse(uences of rapid growth in population, motorisation, ur.anisation
and lac: of investment in road safet'. ?oads, highwa's and streets are
fundamental to transportation s'stem and over 6!4 of passenger travel and
much of goods mover is over the highwa's.
1.1: The importance of the work
$raffic accidents are a Bglo.al traged'A with ever,rising trends in fatalities and
in+uries in the developing countries. ?oad trauma has now .een recognised as
one of the significant diseases of industrial societies and is an increasing pu.lic
health economic issue in developing countries. *ccording to the BWorld ?eport
on ?oad $raffic In+ur' 9revention,2!!"A, worldwide an estimated 1.2 million
people are :illed in traffic accidents each 'ear and as man' as 7! million are
in+ured. 9ro+ections indicate that these figures will increase .' a.out 674 over
the neCt 2! 'ears unless there is new commitment to prevention. 8urthermore,
traffic deaths are predicted to increase .' 5/4 in low income and middle
income countries and to decrease .' 264 in high income countries. Of total 1.2
million deaths, .' far the ma+orit' D over 5!4 of traffic fatalities occur in so
called developing and emerging countries, even though these countries account
onl' a.out E of the total motor vehicle fleet. *ccident rates in developing
countries are often 1!,6! times higher than in developed countries. Whereas
2
Chapter 1: Introduction
traffic accident situation is slowl' improved in the industrialised societies e.g.
*ustralia, %;*, %F etc.#, most developing countries face a worsening situation.
It is eCpected that over the neCt ten 'ears developing countries will eCperience
the alarming increase in traffic in+uries.
1.1.1: Context of Bangladesh
)angladesh is an independent countr'. Gventuall' the )ritish came to dominate
the region and it .ecame part of )ritish India. In 1-"6, West 9a:istan and Gast
)engal separated from India and +ointl' .ecame the new countr' of 9a:istan.
Gast )engal .ecame Gast 9a:istan in 1-77, .ut the aw:ward arrangement of a
two,part countr' with its territorial units separated .' 1,6!! :m left the )engalis
marginalised and dissatisfied. Gast 9a:istan seceded from its union with West
9a:istan in 1-61 and was renamed )angladesh. *.out a third of this eCtremel'
poor countr' floods annuall' during the monsoon rain' season, hampering
economic development. )angladesh is located 2" !!&, -! !!G# in ;outhern
*sia, .ordering .' the )a' of )engal, )urma and India. Its area is 1"6,76! s(
:m i.e., 76,-66 s( miles# of which -/4 is land and 64 is water. $he ratios of
areas of rural and ur.an localities are 12.-2 2!!"#. Climate is tropical3 mild
winter Octo.er to >arch#3 hot, humid summer >arch to Hune#3 humid, warm
rain' monsoon Hune to Octo.er#. It is mostl' a flat alluvial plain although hill' in
southeast. >ain natural haIards are droughts, c'clones3 much of the countr'
routinel' is flooded during the summer monsoon season. >ost of the countr' is
situated on deltas of large rivers flowing from the Himala'as: the =anges unites
with the Hamuna main channel of the )rahmaputra# and later +oins the >eghna
to eventuall' empt' into the )a' of )engal. see )angladesh map in appendiC,
C#
1.1.1a: Administratie !one:
)angladesh has 6 divisions, 6" districts Jila#, "5" su.,districts %paIila#, 7-6
police stations, ""-5 unions and /!5 municipalities ));, 2!!6#.
3
Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1.1": Population and #$P
In 2!!5, the =09 purchasing power parit'# was %;K225." .illion3 =09 official
eCchange rate# was %;K5/.!" .illion3 =09 real growth rate# was 7.-43 =09
per capita 999# was %;K1,7!!. 9opulation was 17/,7"6,5-6 Hul' 2!!5 est.#
with .' age structure, //4 of !,1" 'ears male 26,/6",/6! and female
2",57-,6-2#, 6/4 of 17,6" 'ears male "-,"12,-!/ and female "6,"65,!1/# and
"4 of 67L male 2,-12,/21 and female 2,72-,7!2#3 with population growth rate
24, )irth rate 2- .irthsM1,!!! population and 0eath rate 5 deathsM1,!!!
population CI*, 2!!-#. $he population 9'ramids for 2!!6 and 2!!5 are .elow:
8igure, 1.1.1a: 9opulation 9'ramids for )angladesh, 2!!6 and 2!!53 ;ource, %; Census#
9opulation ratios were as .' gender, >ale:8emale N 1!7.2 and .' localit',
?ural:%r.an N /.22 2!!"#.
1.1.1c: %oad &etwork
%oad 'ength ()ilometre*+ ,00-
%oad Class T.pe Paed /npae Total
&ational Highwa' >ain /,"57 57 /,76!
?egional Highwa' >ain ",116 2!6 ",/2/
Jila 8eeder# ?oad >ain -,61- /,-7- 1/,665
%paIila ?oad Other 21,266 1",55- /6,166
%nion ?oad Other 11,665 /!,771 "2,/2-
Oillage ?oad Other 1/,/16 175,!1- 161,//7
$otal 6/,6-2 2!6,6!- 261,"!1
4 2/."64 66.7/4
$a.le, 1.1.1c: ?oad &etwor: of )angladesh, 2!!63 ;ource: )ose and ?ahman, 8e.ruar' 2!!-#
?oadwa'sA length of )angladesh is ran:ed in the 21
st
among 21- countries
CI*, World 8act.oo:, 2!!5#. /-4 of these have access to an all season road
World )an:#. $he densit' of the total road networ: :m.roadsM:m
2
.land area#
4
Chapter 1: Introduction
was 1."" in 1--- and 1.66 in 2!!/ World )an:, 2!!6#.
1.1.1d: %oad Transport
$he main motorised vehicles are )us, $ruc: light, heav' and articulated#,
motorc'cle, .a.',taCi, tempo, micro.us, mini.us, car, +eep, oil tan:er and tractor
)?$*, 2!!6#. *gain the non,motorised vehicles are .ic'cle, ric:shaw, push cart
and animal drawn )?$*, 2!!6#.
1.1.,: 0ituation of Bangladesh in Traffic Accidents and Casualties
$he statistics reveal that the fatalit' rate of road accidents in )angladesh is ver'
high, with a.out 16! deaths per 1!,!!! motor vehicles as compared with the
rates of 2 in the %;* and 1." in the %F. $ogether with social impact in terms of
pain, grief and suffering, road accidents appear to impose a serious economic
.urden on countr' Ho(ue et al., 2!!/#. $he -
th
International Conference on
;afe Communit' revealed that in )angladesh, more than 2,!!! people are
:illed in road accidents ever' 'ear, which are a.out 6 persons ever' da'.
*ccording to )?$*, )angladesh has a fatalit' rate of 77 persons per 1!,!!!
vehicles 6!M1!,!!!3 another stud' at $he 8inancial GCpress, Hul' 2!!7#.
?ecent figures from $ransport ?esearch 1a.orator' %.F# showed that
)angladeshAs death rate for traffic accidents is twice of the rate that of India
another stud', // per 1!!! vehicles according to the 8inancial GCpress, Hul'
2!!7# and /! times that of developed countries li:e Hapan. * surve' conducted
.' the *ccident ?esearch Centre of )angladesh %niversit' of Gngineering and
$echnolog' in 2!!" shows that more than 2,!!! people die each 'ear in road
accidents )agchi, 2!!6#.
1.1.1: Traffic Accident Trends in #lo"al and %egion
*ccording to WHO data 2!!"#, traffic deaths have risen from approCimatel'
---,!!! in 1--!5 to +ust over 1.1 million in 2!!2, an increase of around 1!4.
1ow,income and middle,income countries account for the ma+orit' of this
5
Chapter 1: Introduction
increase. $he WHO pu.lication 1---# of In+ur': * 1eading Cause of the =lo.al
)urden of 0isease, reports that the leading in+ur',related cause of death among
people aged 17,"" 'ears is traffic in+uries. Of the 7.5 million people who died of
in+uries in 1--5, 1,16!,6-" died as a direct result of in+uries sustained in a motor
vehicle accident. /5,5"5,627 in+uries were received .' people involved in motor
vehicle accidents in 1--5. $he chart .elow summarises the traffic statistics in
the WHO report.
8igure, 1.1./: World ?oad $raffic 8atalities: http:MMwww.crashtest.comMeCplanationsMstatsMindeC.htm on 16 0ecem.er,
2!!6
1.1.2: Comparison of 3atalities in $eeloping4$eeloped Countries
)angladesh with the lowest motorisation level, almost 1M1!! that of >ala'sia,
has the lowest fatalit' ris: .ut the worst fatalit' rate of the region Haco.s et al.,
1---#.
?oad traffic fatalities of )angladesh are larger than that of 2! countries li:e
;rilan:a, 2emen, 1i.'a etc.# and smaller than that of // countries li:e China,
India, %;* etc.# among 7" countries in 1--6 see *ppendiC 8igure, 1.1.".1#.
8atalit' ris: 0eathsM1!!,!!!# of )angladesh is 2 which are smaller than that of
7/ countries among 7" countries in 1--6 see *ppendiC 8igure, 1.1.".2#.
8atalit' rate 0eathsM1!,!!! >O# of )angladesh is "7 which are larger than that
6
Chapter 1: Introduction
of "6 countries among 7" countries in 1--6 see *ppendiC 8igure, 1.1."./#.
1.,: Bangladesh #oernment Targets for %educing Traffic Accidents
$he 1
st
road safet' action plan for )angladesh was drafted during 1--7,-6 and
was presented to the &ational ?oad ;afet' Council &?;C# on 1
st
8e.ruar'
1--6 and it is :nown as B&ational ?oad ;afet' ;trategic *ction 9lan Hul' 1--6,
Hune 1---A. $he 2
nd
action plan, &?;;*9 Hul' 2!!!,Hune 2!!2 was drafted
with purpose of BeCtending the time period of the on,going pro+ects from the 1
st
plan and ta:ing up some new schemes to address road safet' pro.lemsA. In
2!!1, the 2
nd
plan was re,written with minor editing and produced as the /
rd
road
safet' action plan and with title as B&ational ?oad ;afet' ;trategic *ction 9lan
2!!2,2!!"A3 it was approved .' &?;C on 6
th
&ovem.er 2!!1.
1.,.1: 5ision for %oad 0afet. and #oal of 2
th
%oad 0afet. Action Plan
)angladesh has a serious road safet' pro.lem. * suita.le version for road
safet' in )angladesh, which is not unrealistic, is a 7!4 reduction in road
accident fatalities within 17 'ears. 8or the neCt three,'ear road safet' action
plan, this vision translates to a goal of a 1!4 reduction in the annual num.er of
road accident fatalities .' the end of 2!!6 )?$*, &ational ?oad ;afet'
Council, 2!!7,2!!6#.
1.1: %esearch Aims
$he aim of this thesis is to anal'se the road traffic accidents and casualties in
)angladesh. $he :e' aims are to:
 %nderstand the composition of traffic accidents and casualties data.
 Identif' the magnitude of traffic accidents and casualties.
 *nal'se the data .' personal characteristics, mode of vehicles, attitude
of drivers and casualties, roadM +unction t'pe and vehicle t'pe.
 >odel the data of fatalit' rates .' travel mode drivers, passengers,
pedestrians and all road users#, of F;I :illed or seriousl' in+ured#M fatal
7
Chapter 1: Introduction
accident rates, of fatal accidents .' time mode and of involved motorised
or non,motorised vehicles at fatal accidents .' t'pe.
 >a:e recommendations to improve road safet' and reduction of traffic
accidents and casualties.
1.2: %esearch 6ethodolog.
1.2.1: 0ources of 0econdar. $ata
• $raffic accident with casualt' data to .e collected from )angladesh
&ational ?oad $raffic *ccident )&?$*# annual reports: 2!!2,2!!6,
)angladesh ?oad $ransport *uthorit' )?$*#, >inistr' of
Communications3 0I=9 Crime# of )angladesh 9olice HP, >inistr' of
Home and )angladesh )ureau of ;tatistics ));#, >inistr' of 9lanning,
=overnment of the 9eopleAs ?epu.lic of )angladesh according to design
under consultation with $?1, %F.
• Involved vehicle data, .' road environment, .' road class and .'
collision t'pe to .e collected from )angladesh ?oad $ransport *uthorit'.
• 9opulations, .' road environment, .' division and .' district to .e
collected from population census of )angladesh, ));.
• *reas of )angladesh, .' localit', .' division and .' district to .e
collected from ));.
8
Chapter 1: Introduction
1.2.,: Bangladesh %oad Transport Authorit. $ata of Traffic Accidents
*ccident and casualt' record attendant circumstances include information a.out
the accident and casualt' circumstances in terms of date, time, location
division, district, road environment and road class#, num.er of vehicles,
num.er of casualties etc. Casualt'M fatalit' records include information a.out
location division and district#, travel mode .' gender, age, genderQage, alcohol,
drin:ing, ageQalcohol,drin:ing, helmet,wearing, ageQhelmet,wearing etc.
*ccident records include information a.out accident t'pe fatal, grievous and
simple#, location division, district, road environment and road class#, collision
t'pe, +unction t'pe etc. Oehicle records include information a.out the vehicle
t'pe, num.er of vehicle per accident single and multiple vehicles# per
accident#, location road environment and road class#, collision t'pe etc.
1.2.1: $ata"ase
0ata.ases to .e constructed in GCcel for eCploration#, ;9;; for *&OO*# and
;*; for modelling# using the raw data.
1.2.2: 0tatistical Packages
$he statistical software, >; 9ower 9oint 2!!/#, >; GCcel 2!!/ and 2!!6#,
;9;; 16.!.2# and ;*; -.!# to .e used.
1.2.7: 0tatistical 8xploration+ Anal.sis and 6odelling of $ata
1.2.7.1: 0tatistical 8xploration
$he data of fre(uencies with rates of F;I Filled or ;eriousl' In+ured#M fatal
accidents with casualties and fre(uencies of involved vehicles will .e eCplored
in scatter, trend line and .ar charts.
1.2.7.,: 0tatistical Anal.sis
$he raw data is not availa.le onl' aggregated totals so anal'sis will .e
9
Chapter 1: Introduction
conducted using mainl' non,parametric methods and procedures to model or
anal'se row and column effects and their interactions from ta.les.
1.2.7.,.1: Application of A&95A
$ime series data will .e anal'sed appl'ing linear regression model. One,wa'
classified data will .e anal'sed appl'ing >ann,Whitne' and Frus:al,Wallis
*&OO*s. $wo,wa' and three,wa' classified data will .e anal'sed appl'ing
%nivariate linear model *&OO*.
1.2.7.,.,: Anal.sis 6ethods of $ata
$he following steps will .e applied:
a# O.tain various accident and casualt' data on )angladesh.
.# 8orm a 0ata.ase in ;9;;.
c# Construct the models of F;I casualties or fatalities. $his will .e applied
various models such as %nivariate forecasting, eCponential, 1inear
regression, 9oisson regression.
d# Identif' and anal'se the characteristics of accident involvement .'
person, vehicle, road environment, road class and time.
e# Construct the models of accident involvement at common +unctionM road
t'pes using &on Jero 9oisson ?egression >odels.
1.2.7.1: 0tatistical 6odelling
$he data of fatal accident ratesM fatal casualt' rates fatalit' rates# are to
investigate the num.er of fatal accidents and the num.er of involved vehicles
as dependent varia.les. * poisson regression approach is suita.le for this, or
when rates of accidentsM casualtiesM fatalities are of a relativel' small magnitude
White, 2!!2#. However, the population densit' .ases used at locationM factorM
attri.ute level and relativel' long time period for which the data are availa.le
have resulted in rates that approach normall' distri.uted data.

10
Chapter 1: Introduction
1.2.7.1.1: 6odelling Techni:ues
$he data will .e investigated with eCplorator' statistical techni(ues and
comparisons made .etween classes such as gender, age, collision t'pe,
+unction t'pe, road environment, road class, location etc. >odels will .e formed
using 9oisson regression techni(ues to identif' factors associated with greater
li:elihood of road traffic casualties. 8rom this anal'sis recommendations will .e
made as to how the situation might .e improved.
1.7: 0tructure of the Thesis
$he thesis will have the following chapters:
i) Chapter, 1: Introduction3
ii) Chapter, 2: 1iterature ?eview3
iii) Chapter, /: ;tatistical GCploration of F;IM 8atal *ccidents,Casualties3
iv) Chapter, ": ;tatistical *nal'sis of F;IM 8atal *ccidents,Casualties3
v) Chapter, 7: ;tatistical >odelling of 8atal *ccidents,Casualties3
vi) Chapter, 6: Conclusion, 0iscussions and ?ecommendations3
B1iterature ?eviewA is considered at &eCt chapter 2#.
11

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