1AC

Beehive Bonanza
Novice CX Workshop

Index
Index .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 1AC (1/13) ..................................................................................................................................................... 2 1AC (2/13) ..................................................................................................................................................... 3 1AC (3/13) ..................................................................................................................................................... 4 1AC (4/13) ..................................................................................................................................................... 5 1AC (5/13) ..................................................................................................................................................... 6 1AC (6/13) ..................................................................................................................................................... 7 1AC (7/13) ..................................................................................................................................................... 8 1AC (8/13) ..................................................................................................................................................... 9 1AC (9/13) ................................................................................................................................................... 10 1AC (10/13) ................................................................................................................................................. 11 1AC (11/13) ................................................................................................................................................. 12 1AC (12/13) ................................................................................................................................................. 13 1AC (13/13) ................................................................................................................................................. 14

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1AC (1/13)
Observation 1: Inherency A. Oil drilling in the Straits of Florida are inevitable—oil reserves off the coast of Cuba continue to attract foreign oil companies.
Manchak 2010 (Benjamin, Staff Writer, Boston College Third World Law Journal 2009-2010, ―Comprehensive Economic Sanctions, the Right to
Development, and Constitutionally Impermissible Violations of International Law,‖ 30 Boston College Third World Law Journal 417, L/N) At the time this note went to print, the well Repsol had begun drilling in February 2012, turned out to be dry, and the company announced that it would stop drilling in Cuba's waters. n170 Following Repsol's exit, the Malaysian oil company Petronas took over drilling efforts in the Straits of Florida. n171 In August 2012, however, Petronas also announced that its well was not viable. n172 In November 2012, after drilling a third unsuccessful well, the Scarabeo 9 rig prepared to leave Cuban waters in an effort to explore other, more lucrative prospects, temporarily stalling Cuba's deepwater oil exploration. n173 Despite the

lack of success thus far, the potential of a major oil spill in the Straits of Florida remains a significant threat. The estimated oil reserves off the coast of Cuba will continue to attract foreign oil companies, who [*599] had already planned to explore Cuba's reserves for at least another year. n174¶ A change in the tone of U.S. policy toward Cuba is long overdue. n175 Although there is significant bipartisan support for shifting U.S. policy toward Cuba to a more engaging model, n176 the sharply polarized environment in Washington seems to force legislators to remain at loggerheads. n177 The intransigency of the parties has led to repeated instances of brinkmanship, n178 which is counterproductive to the national interest. Engaging with Cuba in the development of its energy resources is an issue that both parties should be able to agree on, even over the objections of the minority, who continue to take a hardline approach to anything related to Cuba.
n179 This issue is simply too important. As Dan Whittle, director of the Environmental Defense Fund's Cuba Project, put it: "This isn't about politics. It's about protecting our beaches, our shores, our fishermen, our communities." n180

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1AC (2/13)
Plan: The United States Federal Government should substantially increase economic engagement with Cuba by enacting the Western Hemisphere Energy Security Act of 2012, as per the recommendations of U.S. Senator Jake Flake.

3

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1AC (3/13)
Advantage 1: Oil A. We’re on the brink – US-based parts are crucial to immediately respond to spills – any spill in the status quo would be catastrophic

Almeida 12’ (BY ROB ALMEIDA ON MAY 18, 2012 Rob Almeida is Partner and Chief Marketing Officer at gCaptain Drilling Off Cuba, and How the
Embargo Could be Very Costly for the US http://gcaptain.com/drilling-cuba-embargo-badly/ )
This was the subject of last week’s panel discussion at the Carnegie Center for International Policy in Washington, DC.― There

is no standing agreement with Cuba on what to do in case of a blowout,‖ says Wayne Smith, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy and director of the Cuba Project.Nobody is predicting a catastrophe, the panel reiterated, and reports indicate that Cuban drillers on board the Scarabeo 9 are being exceedingly cautious, but there’s no substitute for being prepared in case disaster strikes.Prior to commencing drilling operations, Repsol contracted
their capabilities during the 2010 Macondo well blowout and oil spill, however Cuba

Helix Energy Solutions Group to provide immediate well intervention and other subsea services in case of well issues.It’s a great start, and Helix certainly proved

is under a full economic and diplomatic embargo with massive implications. This means:1) The Scarabeo 9’s blowout preventer, the most crucial piece of well control equipment on board the rig was made by a US company. The trade embargo prohibits OEM spare parts or repair items to be sold to Repsol. Also, technical expertise from the OEM cannot be provided.2) The ―capping stacks ‖ which have been created by Helix ESG, BP, the MWCC and others, are not authorized for use in Cuban waters. This means, if an uncontrolled blowout does occur, these essential piece of equipment will not be available until authorization is given and a delivery method determined.This is a significant issue
of gear that massive on to a ship.3) The deepwater

considering the BP ―capping stack‖ weighs somewhere around a half million pounds. Reports indicate there are no cranes in Cuba capable of lifting such a piece

drilling experts in the US are not authorized to provide assistance to Cuba in case of a disaster.4) All the training programs that have been developed post-Macondo are not available for Cuban nationals. In fact, any training that
will result in a professional license or certification is off limits to Cubans.) Tyvek suits, the essential work-wear for HAZMAT cleanup, are not authorized to be brought into Cuba due to supposed military applications.In addition…The Scarabeo 9 was classed by DNV on 19 August 2011 in Singapore, and she is due for her 1-year ―checkup‖ on 19 August 2012, with a 3 month window on either side of that date. As expected, DNV has told us that there will be no US-based employees involved.

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1AC (4/13)
B. Bilateral relations between Cuba and the US are key to solving for oil spills – regional expertise is the only way to solve

Boom ’12 (BRIAN M. BOOM, Brian M. Boom is the director of the Caribbean Biodiversity Program and Bassett Maguire Curator of Botany at the New York
Botanical Garden. 08/14/12. http://www.sciencediplomacy.org/article/2012/biodiversity-without-borders)

The most urgent environmental problems requiring bilateral action are broadly classified as disasters—both those that occur naturally and those that are man-made. Hurricanes are the clearest examples of shared natural disasters. During the twentieth century, 167

hurricanes struck the U.S. mainland. Of these, 62 were major (categories 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). During the same period, 36 hurricanes, half of which were major, made landfall over Cuba. Because many hurricanes—Katrina and Ike being twenty-first century examples—strike both countries, there exists a shared need after such disasters to respond to the negative effects, including environmental problems created by rain, wind, and storm surges. Most major hurricanes occurring in the Caribbean during the past century have resulted in documented extensive perturbations of shallow-water marine ecosystems, particularly to coral reefs, seagrass beds, and coastal mangroves.2 Aside from physical damage to such ecosystems from more turbulent water, hurricanes can also negatively impact water quality. On land, hurricane damage to ecosystems can be even more severe than in the ocean. For example, damaged native vegetation will possibly be more prone to colonization by exotic, noxious species such as Australian pine and Brazilian pepper.3 While Cuban and U.S. scientists have shared motivation to assess, monitor, and remediate the marine and terrestrial ecosystems that are damaged by hurricanes, they currently cannot do so.

Man-made environmental disasters, such as oil and natural gas leaks, can likewise be of shared concern to the Cuban and U.S. governments. The Gulf of Mexico is a rich source of oil and gas and will remain so for decades to come. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there exist nearly 4,000 active oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico off the U.S. coastline. Cuba also has plans for new oil and gas platforms off its northern coast.4 Given the near- and long-term implications of gas, oil, and chemical dispersants on the Gulf of Mexico’s biodiversity, it is imperative for the economic and ecological wellbeing of both Cuba and the United States that exploration is pursued with enhanced safeguards to avoid the mistakes of past disasters, such as the dramatic explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig. While Cuba and the United States are signatories to several international protocols for cooperation on containment of oil spills, there is scant cooperation between them on this front—although there were at least some low-level meetings between the countries after the Deepwater Horizon blowout.5 Given the
drilling in the area, including deep wells, more than luck will be needed to avert future disasters.

potential of currents in the Gulf of Mexico to disperse spills from off the coast of one country to the waters and shores of the other, there were ongoing concerns about the possible reach of the disaster. Fortunately, relative to its potential, the Deepwater Horizon spill remained mostly contained. However, with increased

Even if oil and gas leaks or spills are restricted to Cuban or U.S. waters, the negative environmental impacts can be important regionally. The two nations’ shared marine ecosystem is the foundation for the mid Atlantic and Gulf Stream fisheries. Many important commercial and sport fish species breed and feed in Cuban waters.
So destruction of Cuban mangroves and coral reefs will impact stocks of species such as snapper, grouper, and tuna, along with myriad other animals, plants, and microbes that spend different parts of their life cycles in the territorial waters of each country.6Given that

urgent environmental problems can arise rapidly and harm the economic and ecological health of the United States and Cuba, it is imperative that there should be a mechanism for rapid, joint response to these shared threats.

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Novice CX Workshop

1AC (5/13)
Weisberg, ’12 (Robert H. Weisberg, Special to the Times, Professor, Ph.D., University of Rhode Island, 1975. Dr. Weisberg is an experimental physical
oceanographer engaged in ocean circulation and ocean-atmosphere interaction studies in the tropics, on continental shelves, and in estuaries. As director of the USF Ocean Circulation Group and co-director of the USF Coastal Ocean Modeling and Prediction System his research presently emphasizes in-situ measurements, analyses, and models of the West Florida Shelf circulation and the interactions between the shelf and the estuaries, February 4, 2012, http://www.tampabay.com/opinion/columns/tracking-a-potential-cuba-oil-spill/1213878)¶ LA

C. Timeframe immediate- oil spill would reach Florida in 5 days

officials, while discussing potential spill that the swift currents of the Gulf Stream will protect South Florida by carrying most oil away before it could hit the beaches. Is this correct, or might a threat to South Florida's beaches exist, given a drilling mishap?¶ The Gulf Stream indeed is swift, but if it isolated Florida from Cuba, then how did so many Cuban rafters reach the shoreline between Miami and Palm Beach
mitigation, claim

Numerous articles continue to be written about oil exploration off the coast of Cuba. Some federal

over the past 50 years? To address this and the potential for oil to reach the Florida coastline, it is important to consider the Gulf Stream in its entirety.¶ There are two primary components of flow. The first, driven by the large-scale winds over the Atlantic Ocean, is geostrophic. The second is driven by local winds. Neglecting eddies, the geostrophic part alone would tend to isolate Cuba from Florida because it would be difficult for surface oil picked up on the Cuban side of the Gulf Stream to traverse across the region of maximum speed to the Florida side. However, the local wind-driven part can achieve this.¶ The geostrophic part is a balance between two forces, the pressure difference across the Gulf Stream and the Coriolis force by the Earth's rotation. The result is a flow that nearly parallels the coastline. The local wind driven part is also a balance between two forces, the friction of the wind on the sea surface and the Coriolis force by the Earth's rotation. The result is a net transport of water directed to the right of the wind.¶ This Ekman transport, named after the discovering scientist, explains why sea level is higher than the normal high tide level on Florida's East Coast under northerly winds and lower than the normal high tide level under southerly winds. The reason is that water under the influence of northerly winds is driven toward Florida's East Coast. The converse occurs along Florida's West Coast. Thus flooding of low-lying areas on the East Coast tends to occur after the passage of strong weather fronts when the winds are northerly, whereas this tends to occur on the West Coast in advance of the front when the winds are southerly.¶ Given this conceptual discussion, it is possible to simulate the movement task is run by the Navy along with academic partners.¶ By downloading the modeled velocity fields and inserting virtual particles indicative of surface oil, my associates and I can track where the oil might go in time and space. For illustrative purposes, we used January 2012. Neutrally buoyant particles were

of oil that may be spilled on the surface using a computer model that contains these physics (geostrophic and Ekman motions). One particularly suited for the distributed about an exploration site claimed to be 22 miles north of Havana, and new particles were seeded every three hours to mimic a continual release of oil.¶ Two examples are provided, one for a period of time when virtual particles encountered East Coast beaches about five to seven days after release, the other for a period of time when they did not. The differences are due to the
local winds during these week-long simulation intervals.¶ Recognizing that weather fronts regularly transit the Florida peninsula, with southerlies on the leading side and northerlies on the trailing side, and that the interval between successive fronts is days to a week or so, we can expect that a prolonged

spill would likely bring oil to South Florida beaches. Regardless of these simulations, simply recall the tar on South Florida beaches in the 1970s before the Clean Water Act restricted offshore bilge pumping.¶ Whereas a vibrant economy requires energy, risks are inherent to oil exploration and production. Such risks increase with deepwater drilling in swift currents, and the swift Gulf Stream regularly transits the deepwater region north of Cuba. It is unfortunate that we were unable to surmount the political and diplomatic issues
pertaining to the present oil exploration in Cuban waters because once the oil potential was identified years ago, drilling was inevitable. Without readily achievable energy alternatives to hydrocarbons, other than nuclear, it is ever more important for the United States to adopt a sound energy policy.¶

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Novice CX Workshop

1AC (6/13)
D. Cuban oil spill trashes the Florida ecosystem – takes out key coral reefs and mangroves that are critical to biodiversity – Florida is a unique hotspot for this collapse
Emily A. ¶ Daniel J. , J.D.¶ Douglas N. , Ph.D¶ December ―Bridging the Gulf¶ Finding Common Ground on Environmental and ¶ Safety Preparedness for Offshore Oil and Gas in Cuba‖, http://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/EDF -Bridging_the_Gulf-2012.pdf

Peterson

Whittle

and

Rader

2012

If a spill were to occur in Cuban waters, marine and coastal resources of the United States, Cuba, ¶ and the Bahamas could be placed at significant risk. Fisheries, coastal tourism, recreation, and ¶ other natural resources-based enterprises and
activities in the region could experience adverse impacts on the scale of weeks to years, or even decades. Multiple factors —including the type ¶ and amount of oil spilled, the environment in which the oil spilled, and prevailing weather and ¶ ocean current conditions—would play key factors in determining the extent and gravity of a ¶ spill’s impact.45¶ In

Cuba, marine and coastal habitats could suffer substantial long-term harm which could ¶ degrade, in turn, entire populations and habitats downstream in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. ¶ According to Dr. John W. Tunnell, Jr., associate director of the Harte Research Institute and an ¶ expert on the Gulf of Mexico marine environment, the primary three habitats at risk on Cuba’s ¶ North Coast near the area where exploration is occurring are coral reefs, seagrass beds, and lush ¶ mangrove forests.46 These habitats are found throughout the region, but
in greatest abundance ¶ in the Archipelago Sabana-Camaguey and the Archipelago Los Colorados, where they provide ¶ breeding, nursery, and feeding habitats for commercial fish species, including grouper, snapper, ¶ and grunts.¶ If chemical dispersants were used as part of the clean-up effort, they could reduce impacts ¶ on fauna for which oiling per se is the greatest threat (e.g. birds) but also add additional toxicity, ¶ as well as alter the transport and ecological fate of oil constituents moving through the water ¶ column and then into the air or back towards the bottom.

Dispersed oil could have greater ¶ deleterious effect on Cuba’s coral reefs, which are fragile, slow-growing, and have low resilience ¶ to physical and chemical stresses.47 Like salt marshes, coastal mangrove swamps are also ¶ difficult to clean up in the aftermath of an oil spill, and mangroves can die within a week to ¶ several months as a result of oil exposure.48 Reduced from their formerly healthy, vibrant state, ¶ such important habitats could lose their ability to support the fisheries and marine life that ¶ depend on them.

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Novice CX Workshop

1AC (7/13)
Robin Kundis Craig (Associate Prof Law, Indiana U School Law) 2003

E. Coral collapse destroys the ecosystem, leading to extinction

Biodiversity and ecosystem function arguments for conserving marine ecosystems also exist, just as they do for terrestrial ecosystems, but these arguments have thus far rarely been raised in political debates. For example, besides significant tourism values - the most economically valuable ecosystem service coral reefs provide, worldwide - coral reefs protect against storms and dampen other environmental fluctuations, services worth more than ten times the reefs' value for food production. n856 Waste

treatment is another significant, non-extractive ecosystem function that intact coral reef ecosystems provide. n857 More generally, "ocean ecosystems play a major role in the global geochemical cycling of all the elements that represent the basic building blocks of living organisms, carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus, and sulfur, as well as other less abundant but necessary elements." n858 In a very real and direct sense, therefore, human degradation of marine ecosystems impairs the planet's ability to support life. Maintaining biodiversity is often critical to maintaining the functions of marine ecosystems. Current evidence shows that, in general, an ecosystem's ability to keep functioning in the face of disturbance is strongly dependent on its biodiversity, "indicating that more diverse ecosystems are more stable." n859 Coral reef ecosystems are particularly dependent on their biodiversity. [*265] Most ecologists agree that the complexity of interactions and degree of interrelatedness among component species is higher on coral reefs than in any other marine environment. This implies that the ecosystem
functioning that produces the most highly valued components is also complex and that many otherwise insignificant species have strong effects on sustaining the rest of the reef system. n860 Thus, maintaining and restoring the biodiversity

restoring the ecosystem services that they provide. Non-use biodiversity values for marine ecosystems have been calculated in the wake of

of marine ecosystems is critical to maintaining and

marine disasters, like the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska. n861 Similar calculations could derive preservation values for marine wilderness. However, economic value, or economic value equivalents, should not be "the sole or even primary justification for conservation of ocean ecosystems. Ethical arguments also have considerable force and merit." n862 At the forefront of such arguments should be a recognition of how little we know about the sea - and about the actual effect of human activities on marine ecosystems. The United States has traditionally failed to protect marine ecosystems because it was difficult to detect anthropogenic harm to the oceans, but we now know that such harm is occurring - even though we are not completely sure about causation or about how to fix every problem. Ecosystems we really do not know what we are doing to the sea and hence should be preserving marine wilderness whenever we can - especially when the United States has within its territory relatively pristine marine ecosystems that may be unique in the world. We may not know much about the sea, but we do know this much: if we kill the ocean we kill ourselves, and we will take most of the biosphere with us.

like the NWHI coral reef ecosystem should inspire lawmakers and policymakers to admit that most of the time

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Novice CX Workshop

1AC (8/13)
Advantage 2: Cuban Economy A. Cuba’s transition to capitalism is at a crossroads – US action within the next 18 months is key to stabilize and solidify reforms
010105720.html, ―Cuba's economy is entering crucial stage‖)

AAP 7/24/13 (Australian Associated Press is Australia's national news agency, http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/cubas-economy-entering-crucial-stageCommunist-led Cuba's experiment with limited capitalism is entering a crucial and transformative phase this year with the
decentralisation of bloated state-run businesses, the island's economic tsar says. Marino Murillo says the goal is to improve efficiency of those businesses and let the successful ones keep more of their profits. Murillo said the

next 18 months would be the "most complex" part of President Raul Castro's reform program, which has already seen limited openings to private entrepreneurship and a relaxation of many social restrictions. "The first stage of the reforms has so far, fundamentally, been the elimination of prohibitions in society," Murillo said in just his
second face-to-face encounter with foreign journalists since he rose to prominence three years ago. "During what remains of the year 2013 and in 2014, we will work on ... the most profound transformations," he added. Castro's

economic and social reforms, which began in 2010, aim to resuscitate a flagging economy with a smattering of free-market principles, though officials insist that a wholesale embrace of capitalism is not planned. After five decades of a state-dominated economy, hundreds of thousands of people have legally gone into
business for themselves, private farmers are cultivating land with the government's blessing and dozens of independent nonagricultural co-operatives were launched recently under a pilot program. Authorities have also approved home and used car sales, eased travel restrictions and established mortgages and small-business credits. Outside analysts have questioned the scope and pace of the reforms, saying so far they have been insufficient to turn around the economy and attract foreign investment. In a recent speech, Castro himself acknowledged that most

slowly growing economy. Murillo did not give many details about the next stage of the reforms, such as which companies will be decentralised and what will happen to those that fail. An effort to give more autonomy to the sugar industry in 2012 that included new leadership and a restructuring of the once-powerful Sugar Ministry has yet to result in improved harvests. Murillo said the changes

Cubans have yet to feel the benefits of a

contemplated over the coming months include letting state enterprises keep up to 50 per cent of revenue to reinvest. Currently all earnings go to the government, which controls all spending and distributes resources to successful and failing enterprises alike. "We must remove all impediments that put the brakes on possibilities," Murillo said. He acknowledged the island must attract more foreign investment, but insisted that Cuba will do so on its own terms and will not accept business proposals that don't contribute to the island in the way of technology, financing or employment. While some economists have argued that Cuba is in desperate need of an injection of capital, Murillo insisted foreign investment is merely "a complement" to the country's plan for economic development.

Cuba does not have access to international capital markets, and US economic sanctions in place since the 1960s freeze it out of some potential lending sources. However, the country has grown closer to countries such as China and Venezuela and has received soft credits particularly from the latter, which supplies enough oil to meet half of the island's consumption at highly preferential terms. Labour Ministry spokesman Carlos Mateu later told reporters that a plan to eliminate a halfwhere there was more of a need. "We realised that a phenomenon of movement was occurring in the labour force," Mateu said. He added that 429,000 among the island's five million-strong workforce. The other 23 per cent comprises private entrepreneurs, their employers, independent farmers and cooperatives.

million workers from bloated state payrolls, announced by Castro in 2010, did not turn out as expected. Mateu said that instead there was a kind of realignment of labour, with many workers leaving government jobs to open or work for small businesses. In other cases, redundant state workers were transferred to posts

Cubans were now licensed as independent workers. The government remains by far the largest employer, accounting for 77 per cent of jobs

Haven ’12 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/27/cuba-oil-production_n_1549081.html; ―Cuba Oil Production: Cuba Waits Anxiously For Oil Dreams
To Materialize‖; Paul Haven[Associated Press Writer])

B. Oil Drilling solves Cuban economy – use as collateral to secure foreign investments from China and Brazil

An oil find could change the game, with Cuba using future oil riches as collateral to secure new financing, economists say. They point to China and Brazil as potential sources of new funding, but say neither is likely to put money into the island without reasonable confidence they will get their investment back. Lee Hunt, the recently retired president of the Houston-based
International Association of Drilling Contractors, said the stakes are enormous for Cuba that one of the wells hits oil before the Scarabeo-9 leaves. Hunt has worked to bring U.S. and Cuban industry and environmental groups together. "If the only rig you can work with is gone, it's like somebody took your shovel away," Hunt said. "You are not going to dig any holes without a shovel, even if you know the treasure is down there."

9

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Novice CX Workshop

1AC (9/13)
C. Continued economic malaise risks Cuban internal instability and civil war
Campos 7/8 Pedro Campos, ―Cuba’s Burning Economic Contradictions,‖ Havana Times, 7/8/2013, http://www.havanatimes.org/?p=96009
A new kind of class confrontation The

new social composition of classes that the ―updating‖ process is creating presents at one extreme the ―unanticipated‖ bureaucratic political and military class that believes itself to be the legitimate owner of the country’s entire economy. At the other extreme is the dispossessed and badly paid class of salaried workers that the state exploits. The new small and medium capitalists who exploit their own salaried workers represent a kind of nouveau riche class, benefitted by the updating measures but still held down by the State’s strictures. The salaried

workers exploited by these newly wealthy live better than the State salaried workers and as such prefer private capitalism. Then there are the true self-employed workers who don’t exploit outside labor – from the intellectuals and artists with large incomes right down to the elderly peanut sellers – all of them burdened by abusive state taxes. The state throws the new capitalists and their salaried workers into the same sack as the authentic self-employed, all under the label of ―cuentapropistas‖ [self-employed]. And finally there are the cooperative members, formally organized or not, who work together and divide the profits; they are also smothered by state regulations. Apart from all these, there is a class that’s not present in Cuba but which continues to push its agenda: the true wealthy capitalist class with large businesses, settled fundamentally in Miami. This class, exiled from power, has always aspired to return and today continues to plot its comeback on the heels of large international capital. The bureaucratic bourgeoisie now finds itself confronting all of these other classes and national groupings because it lives off of them exploiting all of them directly through salaried work or via abusive taxes and monopoly control of the economy, trade, finances and the dual monetary system. They are the class that is impeding the development of all the others, be it the wealthy classes or the germinating socialist class. Only themselves to blame There’s no doubt about it: the

productive forces in Cuba, be it for the development of private capitalism or to socialize the economy, are facing a common obstacle: the centralized state system and its bureaucracy determined to maintain itself in power indefinitely. I don’t intend to sharpen contradictions that require peaceful and democratic solutions, but objectively the tendency of the class composition of Cuban society and an analysis of its interests presents the bureaucratic bourgeoisie created by State
group. In this way, they have groupings. According to Carlos Marx, when the productive

socialism as a kind of class that stands in opposition to social and economic advance in Cuba in any direction other than its own strengthening as a hegemonic

positioned themselves against the entire Cuban people, against all of their classes and current social forces are held back by the relations of production – in this case the salaried State workers – revolutions appear . Later, let them not blame the imperialists, the ―counterrevolutionary‖ forces, the Miami ―mafia‖, the
new technologies, nor much less the peaceful democratic and socialist left who have done everything possible to help find the road that they have blocked. Instead they should seek the causes from within, in their own self-interest, limitations and befuddlement.

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Novice CX Workshop

1AC (10/13)
D. Cuban instability spills over into multiple hotspots and leads to global conflict
Gorrell 5 (Tim Gorrell, Lieutenant Colonel, ―CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?‖ 3/18/05, http://www.dtic.mil/cgibin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074, AD 7/11/13, AK)

Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s problems of a post Castro transformation only worsen. In addition to Cubans on the island, there will be those in exile who will return claiming authority. And there are remnants of the dissident community within Cuba who will attempt to exercise similar authority. A power vacuum or absence of order will create the conditions for instability and civil war . Whether Raul or another successor from within the current government can hold power is debatable. However, that individual will nonetheless extend the current policies for an indefinite period, which will only compound the Cuban situation. When Cuba finally collapses anarchy is a strong possibility
if the U.S. maintains the ―wait and see‖ approach.

The U.S. then must deal with an unstable country 90 miles
During the Mariel boatlift in 1980 125,000 fled the island.26 Many were criminals;

off its coast. In the midst of this chaos, thousands will flee the island.

this

time the number could be several hundred thousand flee ing to the U.S., creating a refugee crisis. Equally important, by adhering to a negative containment policy, the U.S. may be creating its next series of transnational criminal problems. Cuba is along the axis of the drug-trafficking flow into the U.S. from Columbia. The Castro government as a matter of policy does not support the drug trade. In fact, Cuba’s actions have shown that its stance on drugs is more than hollow rhetoric as indicated by its increasing seizure of drugs – 7.5 tons in 1995, 8.8 tons in 1999, and 13 tons in 2000.27 While there may be individuals within the government and outside who engage in drug trafficking and a percentage of drugs entering the U.S. may pass through Cuba, the Cuban government is not the path of least resistance for the flow of drugs. If there were no Cuban restraints, the flow of drugs to the U.S. could be greatly facilitated by a Cuba base of operation and accelerate considerably. In the midst of an unstable Cuba, the opportunity for radical fundamentalist groups to operate in the region increases. If these groups can export terrorist activity from Cuba to the U.S. or throughout the hemisphere then the war against this extremism gets more complicated. Such activity could increase direct attacks and disrupt the economies, threatening the stability of the fragile democracies that are budding throughout the region. In light of a failed state in the region, the U.S. may be forced to deploy military forces to Cuba, creating the conditions for another insurgency. The ramifications of this action could very well fuel greater anti-American sentiment throughout the Americas. A proactive policy now can mitigate these potential future problems. U.S.

domestic political support is also turning against the current negative policy. The Cuban American population in the U.S. totals 1,241,685 or 3.5% of the population.28 Most of these exiles reside in Florida; their influence has been a factor in determining the margin of victory in the past two presidential elections. But this election strategy may be flawed, because recent polls of Cuban Americans reflect a decline for President Bush based on his policy crackdown. There is a clear softening in the Cuban-American community with regard to sanctions. Younger Cuban Americans do not necessarily subscribe to the hard-line approach. These changes signal an opportunity for a new approach to U.S.-Cuban relations. (Table 1) The time has come to look realistically at the Cuban issue. Castro will rule until he dies. The only issue is what happens then? The U.S. can little afford to be distracted by a failed state 90 miles off its

coast. The administration, given the present state of world affairs, does not have the luxury or the resources to pursue the traditional American model of crisis management. The President and other government and military leaders have warned that the GWOT will be long and protracted. These warnings were sounded when the administration did not anticipate operations in Iraq consuming so many military, diplomatic and economic resources. There is justifiable concern that Africa and the Caucasus region are potential hot spots for terrorist activity, so these areas should be secure. North Korea will continue to be an unpredictable crisis in waiting. We also cannot ignore China. What if China resorts to aggression to resolve the Taiwan situation? Will the U.S. go to war over Taiwan? Additionally, Iran could conceivably be the next target for U.S. preemptive action. These are known and potential situations that could easily require all or many of the elements of national power to resolve. In view of such global issues, can the U.S. afford to sustain the status quo and simply let the Cuban situation play out? The U.S. is at a crossroads: should the policies of the past 40 years remain in effect with vigor? Or should the U.S. pursue a new
approach to Cuba in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?

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Novice CX Workshop

1AC (11/13)
Observation 2: Solvency 1. The US should accept that Cuba is going to develop oil resources and work to develop a cooperative relationship—the Western Hemisphere Security Act of 2012 is a model example of such legislation

Manchak 2010 (Benjamin, Staff Writer, Boston College Third World Law Journal 2009-2010, ―Comprehensive Economic Sanctions, the Right to
Development, and Constitutionally Impermissible Violations of International Law,‖ 30 Boston College Third World Law Journal 417, L/N) Many experts who have studied this topic agree that the

United States should accept that Cuba is going to develop its oil resources no matter how fiercely the Cuban American lobby opposes it. n138 [*593] The history of U.S.-Cuban relations certainly suggests that on matters of interest to Cuba, Washington's opinion carries little weight. n139 Accepting that Cuba is going to develop its oil resources, rather than trying to prevent it, will allow the United States to search for a more collaborative solution with Cuba. Once a framework of collaboration and cooperation is established, both countries will reap benefits that have long been overshadowed by hostility. n140 On March 5, 2012, Representative Jeff Flake introduced the Western Hemisphere Energy Security Act of 2012, n141 which is targeted at fostering a cooperative relationship that would facilitate the prevention of an oil spill in the Straits of Florida and ensure that both countries are better prepared to respond if such an incident does occur. n142 The Act would categorically "permit United States companies to participate in the exploration for and the extraction of hydrocarbon resources from any portion of a foreign maritime exclusive economic zone that is contiguous to the exclusive economic zone of the United States." n143 The Act would also permit U.S. individuals to "engage in any transaction necessary" for the exploration and extraction of oil resources in a qualified zone and would allow those resources to be imported to the United States. n144 It would further permit individuals to "export without license authority all equipment necessary for the exploration for or extraction of hydrocarbon resources, or oil spill prevention and clean-up activities ... ." n145 The
Western Hemisphere Energy Security Act sets the kind of accommodating and supportive tone n146 that has been unnecessarily [*594] absent from U.S.-Cuban relations. n147 The following section proposes other recommendations for U.S. policy that seek to further the supportive engagement with Cuba in those areas of mutual interest.

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1AC (12/13)
2. Cuba will cooperate with the plan and on spill response – the plan sends a clear signal to private investors that guarantees drilling happens immediately

Washington Post 12 (http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-02-17/opinions/35445244_1_blowout-preventer-scarabeo-deepwater-horizon)
¶

Cuba’s first deepwater oil rig, Scarabeo 9, began drilling last month 70 miles south of Key West, Fla. Cuban officials believe the rig may tap as much as 20

billion barrels of oil. (U.S. officials estimate a quarter to half that amount.) If

Cuba’s estimates bear out, this would bring the country’s oil reserves to roughly equal those of the United States. The Spanish oil company Repsol, as well as other international companies with offshore leases from Havana, will drill at depths up to 6,000 feet, as the Cuban government pursues an era of energy independence.¶ It is vital to the environmental and economic interests of the United States that Cuba get this right.¶ The Cuban government is overseeing drilling deeper than BP’s Deepwater Horizon well and almost as close to U.S. shores, but without access to most of the resources, technology, equipment and expertise essential to prevent and, if needed, to respond to spills. We are deeply familiar with
the two largest oil spills in U.S. history, from the Exxon Valdez in 1989 and following the BP Deepwater Horizon explosion in 2010. In each case, containing and remediating the spill required the mobilization of vast resources from the federal government, the private sector and local communities.¶ The Deepwater Horizon spill, 5,000 feet below the ocean’s surface, occurred under the watch of experienced U.S. regulators, at a well drilled by one of the world’s largest, most experienced oil companies on one of the world’s most sophisticated drilling rigs. The response effort involved more than 5,000 vessels and is estimated by BP to have cost $42 billion. The International Association of Drilling Contractors estimates that Cuba has access to less than 5 percent of the resources used in combating the Deepwater Horizon disaster.¶

It is fortunate that a company with a good track record is the first to drill off the Cuba coast. with U.S. regulators, providing them access to Scarabeo 9 when it was moored in Trinidad, on its way to Cuba. But Repsol is also hampered by this country’s embargo on business with Cuba.¶ The blowout preventer on Scarabeo, Repsol
regularly communicates for example, was built in the United States — it constitutes the rig’s maximum 10 percent U.S. content permitted by law. But the company that made it will not commission or maintain it, nor will it supply replacement parts because it does not have a license to operate in Cuba. One hopes that Cuban engineers are as ingenious at jury-rigging a blowout preventer as they are with their old American cars.¶ Cuban regulators are preparing themselves for the

challenge ahead. They have sought guidance from Norwegian counterparts on the implementation of a regulatory regime known as the safety case, where risks are rigorously identified and factored into drilling protocols, and they have sent engineers
to Brazil to learn about the deepwater oil industry. They also studied in detail the findings of the Deepwater Horizon commission and its companion technical report, and they have prepared action responses to each of the report’s key recommendations, as we learned on a September visit with these officials.¶ But

these regulators are severely hampered by the embargo. They cannot engage in dialogue or share expertise with their U.S. counterparts. Their engineers can be trained by international companies but cannot attend training in the United States or be certified by any U.S. organization. The Cuban government and Repsol have stated their intention to comply with U.S. rules to the best of their abilities, even though the Cuban government can have no direct contact with our regulators to learn more about those rules.¶ ¶ The U.S. government can, and should, make available the resources that the organizations involved with Scarabeo need to do their job well. It United States from a potential disaster. In the should also be prepared, should something go wrong, to protect the waters and beaches of Florida and the southeast event of an emergency, the U.S. government would likely do that. But the help might well come too late.¶ The private sector needs considerable time to ready an effective response. Engineers need to understand the rig, well characteristics and marine environment. Companies need to prepare detailed contingency plans and to allocate appropriate equipment. The only capping stacklicensed for use in Cuba in the event of a blowout on the ocean floor, for instance, is in Scotland, a week’s trip away, and has no licensed vessel or crew. Certain resources may not be available if summoned at the last minute.¶ The Commerce and Treasury departments have issued some licenses to spill-response providers and are reviewing others. As welcome as that is, it is not sufficient. The application process and the threat of very significant fines deter many companies from even considering the prospect. The private sector needs a clear signal from the executive branch in order to move forward.¶ Precedents exist for communication between the U.S. and Cuban governments on common interests. The Coast Guard kept Havana apprised of developments with the Deepwater Horizon spill, at a time when some feared the gushing oil could foul Cuban waters. Cuban and U.S. officials have shared information on drug interdiction, immigration and weather, and the United States exports grain and medical supplies to Cuba. All of this has taken place without an official change in policy since the embargo was imposed in 1962. The Obama administration has the authority — now, without a change in law or regulation — to provide a general license to all qualified U.S. companies that express an interest in helping prevent and respond to a Cuban oil spill.¶ This is a
charged issue, one that many officials might want to avoid in an election year. Some have proposed further restricting access to U.S. technology for companies working with Cuba, in the hopes that this might prevent the Cubans from accessing their oil. It is, however, time to face reality. Providing

Repsol and Cuban regulators with access to resources for spill prevention and response will not further the development of Cuba’s oil and gas industry. That’s already under way. What it will do is help protect Key West. It is profoundly in the interest of the United States that we get this right.¶

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1AC (13/13)
USFG action is key – no other country could successfully extract Cuban oil
To Materialize‖; Paul Haven[Associated Press Writer])

Haven ’12 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/27/cuba-oil-production_n_1549081.html; ―Cuba Oil Production: Cuba Waits Anxiously For Oil Dreams
If exploitation does go forward, complicated equipment is required to pull oil from such depths. Several industry experts said the only country that produces the necessary apparatus is the United States, although Brazil and other countries are working to catch up. Unless they do, the oil could not be removed unless the U.S. embargo was lifted or altered. "A lot of folks are looking at the energy sector in Cuba because they are looking at a Cuba of five years from now, or 10 years from now," said Pinon. "So a lot of people are betting that either the embargo is going to be lifted, or the relationship between the U.S. and Cuba is going to improve in some way." Still, the benefits of hitting a gusher would be enormous for Cuba, and the impact could be felt long before any oil was pumped. Because of the embargo, Cuba is shut off from borrowing from international lending institutions, and the island's own poor record of repayment has left most other creditors leery. Cuba,

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