2015 Kentucky Derby

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Content

2014 Kentucky Derby Notes
(in order of preference)

PP
Name
The Short List
3

18

2

8

6

15

Materiality

American Pharaoh

Carpe Diem

Dortmund

Mubtaahij

Frosted

Trainer

Todd Pletcher

Bob Baffert

Todd Pletcher

Bob Baffert

Mike da Kock

Kiaran McLaughlin

Jockey

Javier Castellano

Victor Espinoza

John Velazquez

Martin Garcia

Christophe
Soumillion

Joel Rosario

ML

Pros

Cons

What to look for
during the race

12-1

Undefeated in 3 starts. Only 1
graded stakes victory but that
was his last in the G1 Florida
Derby

The "jinx" - it's been
over 100 years since a
non-starter at 2years
old has won the Derby

He's going to press to
the front. I see him
close to the lead the
whole way

5-2

8-1

Has won 2 Grade 1 races; once
as a 2yr and in his last at
Keeneland. His Blue Grass
victory was impressive

3-1

6 starts and 6 wins; undefeated.
Plus Baffert's got his "GoTo" in
Garcia. Beautiful Santa Anita
Derby victory winning by 4+
lengths and 106 speed rating

20-1

International Star

Mike Maker

Miguel Mena

Dominated the Dubai circuit;
finishing with an impressive 8
length victory in UAE Derby

Draws a tough post
position coming from
the 2 hole

Fun Fact

Materiality is by champion
I normally tell people to not believe
the "hype" when it comes to the Afleet Alex, who won two-thirds
of the Triple Crown in 2005.
Derby. He'll be hyped. But this
Third in the Kentucky Derby.
maybe the time to believe it

At the 18th position
from the post he will
In Arkansas, he should he could
Victor Espinoza is going for backhave to come off the
come off the pace and still dominate.
to-back Derby wins (he rode
pace. If he's not in the
Espinoza can be patient. Look for a
California Chrome last year)
pack by the half mile
big race
post, he could be in
trouble
He's shown that he can
Of the 6 major contenders, he's the Carpe Diem, whose $1.6 million
come off the pace - he'll
"sleeper." Not my first choice, but sale price was the co-highest at
need that skill coming
definitely can close this
the Ocala Breeders' Sale
out of the 2 post

Speed like Dortmund's
This is horse that needs
doesn't always translate
the lead. He'll be up
at the Derby. He may
front. If he can get it
not be leader early on
and hold on - watch out
which is a question for
Pimlco
him

A true contender. I just wonder
about the size of the field and his Son of 2005 Derby winner Big
ability to come off the lead if need Brown
be.

Don't let the name scare you
The is the first Derby
First time on an
(pronounced: Moob-ta-higz).
He will be on the pace;
American track; hard to
Showed amazing talent in the UAE. appearance for South African
needs a clean trip but
judge the competition
Hard to assess against the American trainer de Kock and French rider
looks to have the talent
Soumillion
he faced in Dubai
contenders, but definitely do not
count out and could be a good price

15-1

Had a real letup in his
All depends if you believe in the
He tends to finish
Looks to be peaking at the right second start out at the
Frosted/Rosario story, or if the
strong; wouldn't be
time; Rosario may be the secret Fountain of Youth; only
Wood was just a "fluke". Would not
surprised if he's midsauce
has his maiden and the
be surprised if he won, but wouldn't
His father Tapit also won the
pack in the backstretch
Wood to call victories
be surprised if he finishes 6th either
Wood Memorial

20-1

He beat questionable
He's got some talent. With the right
Was the star at the Fair Grounds competition in the “Big
He'll sit back of the pack luck, he could capture. But hard to International Star is son of 2000
in New Orleans sweeping all 3
Easy” and his speed
waiting for a big run.
see the win, not a bad pick in your Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus
Derby prep races there.
figures are below the
trifecta or super though
top contenders.

Definitely could win, BUT a little Harder to See
12

Dominating on in his last 4
starts. Very impressive Arkansas The 18th position at
Derby (and looked like he had post will handicap him
much more to give)

Final Assessment

2014 Kentucky Derby Notes
(in order of preference)

PP
10

4

7

19

Name
Firing Line

Tencendur

El Kabeir

Upstart

Trainer
Simon Callaghan

George Weaver

John Terranova

Rick Violette, Jr.

Jockey
Gary Stevens

Manny Franco

Calvin Borel

Jose Ortiz

ML

What to look for
during the race

Pros

Cons

12-1

Has decent speed and slayed the
field in the Sunland Derby

Has lost twice to
Dortmund (although
each time only by a
head)

He'll press to be on the
lead the whole way

30-1

Ran a nice second in the Wood
to Frosted (with a 105 speed
rating)

Only victory is his
maiden

He'll need to stay just
off the pace to have a
shot

Has shown he can come well off
the pace to win

Disappointing Wood
Memorial

30-1

15-1

Final Assessment

Fun Fact

Running second in the Wood makes
him a mild contender

This is jockey Manny Franco's
first Derby start

By only losing to Dortmund by a
head (twice) and slaying, an albeit At the age of 52, jockey Gary
weak, field at Sunland, you have to Stevens seeks his fourth Derby
give him an outside chance to
victory
surprise

He's going to need some help here,
Look for him to press
not quite sure he's got the chops to
Calvin Borel is going for his 4th
the lead (on the (Bo)rail
win clean and square. That being
career Derby win
of course). He'll need a
said, he's got a shot (at a very nice
very clean trip
ML price)

Materiality had the
Has put up some nice speed
I see him mid-pack on
better of him in the
ratings and has 2 Grade 2
the backstretch.
victories; has always been in the Florida Derby; 19th post
is not a plus
money

A thoroughbred owner for
nearly 50 years, Ralph M Evans
My concern is the distant here, not has attended just one Kentucky
Derby, when his daughter
sure he wants 1 1/4 miles; although
wanted to attend instead of
he has not run a bad race. Don't
having a confirmation party; so
forget him in any exactas or tri's
he took her to the Derby to see
Spectacular Bid in 1979.  

Probably best only to use as part of an exotic bet (i.e. exacta, trifectas, superfectas, etc.)

5

13

20

Danzig Moon

Itsaknockout

Far Right

Mark Casse

Todd Pletcher

Ron Mouquett

Julien Lepardoux

Luis Saez

Mike Smith

Owner John C Oxley is the son
of John T. Oxley, a Hall of Fame
Expect him to be well
polo player, and is an active
back early. He's a
polo player himself. John has
Bet to win only if love big prices and
been inducted into the Polo Hall
closer, if the pace is not
big dreams
of Fame, was a chairman of the
that hot he could close
U.S. Polo Association, and along
this joint
with his brother owns the Royal
Palm Polo Club in Florida. 

30-1

Ran a respectable second to
Carpe Diem in the Blue Grass (99
speed rating)

30-1

Had a 102 speed rating in second
Should be about midstart (Optional claimer) and ran
Well beaten by
pack in the backstretch;
Hard to see him in the money here
a respectable 2nd in the
Materiality and Upstart
he'll try to make the one
Fountain of Youth (although
in the Florida Derby
run
finished First by disqualification)

Trainer Todd Pletcher ranks
second by Kentucky Derby
starters with 40, trailing only
living-legend D. Wayne Lukas.

A nice horse - with a victory in
Was no match to
the Southwest Stakes and 2nd in American Pharaoh in
the Arkansas Derby (although 8 the Arkansas. Enough
lengths back from Am Pharaoh)
said.

Owner Harry T Rosenblum’s
name was coined from Harry S.
Truman, who served as
Rosenblum’s godfather as well
as serving our country as the
thirty-third President of the
United States. 

30-1

Only victory is his
maiden

He'll be towards the
back of the pack (and
most likely stay there)

Just hasn't shown the speed to
compete with this crowd. Also see
"cons"

2014 Kentucky Derby Notes
(in order of preference)

PP
1

Name
Ocho Ocho Ocho

Trainer
Jim Cassidy

Jockey
Elvis Trujillo

ML
50-1

Pros
Undefeated as a 2 year old.

Cons

What to look for
during the race

Ran a distant 3rd to
He'll hang back and wait
Carpe Diem and Danzig
for a run
Moon in the Blue Grass

Final Assessment
Not feeling it here

If you liked Mine That Bird, you'll love...
17

Mr. Z

16

War Story

9

Bolo

14

Keen Ice

21

Frammento

D. Wayne Lukas

Ramon Vazquez

50-1

Tom Amoss

Joe Talamo

50-1

Carla Gaines

Rafael Bejarano

30-1

Has had a 100 speed rating; has Winner of only one race
I can see him on or
finished in the money that last 5 and winless in the last
pressing the lead early
out of 6 races
10 races
Has never finished out of the
money

Has 2 races with 100+ speed
rating

Dale Romans

Kent Desormeaux

50-1

Jockey change?

Nick Zito

Corey Nakatani

50-1

He's in the race

International Star has
the better of him in
three starts
Change of jockey
(although could be a
positive) and losing
handily to Dortmund
twice doesn't bode well
for a victory here
Only victory is his
maiden; biggest race
was a 3rd placing in the
Risen Star
Very average speed
ratings

He'll lay back to make
one run

He probably doesn't finish last, but
doesn't finish in the money either
I just don't think he has the speed
here (even for a in-the-money play)

Fun Fact

Elvis Trujillo, a native of
Panama, is a 2000 graduate of
the famed Laffit Pincay Jr.
Jockey School. 
Trainer Lukas is the all-time
leading money winner and the
first to reach the $200 million
plateau.
22 year old jockey Talamo
recently just got his 1000th
victory

He should charge to the
A good horse, probably not in the Gaines would be the first
front especially due to
his post position; we'll same class as some of these; but not woman trainer to win the Derby
see what he has left at a bad choice for a 3rd place finish if all works out.
the end
Should be at the back of
the pack in the
If you love long shots, he's your guy
backstretch; look for
one big run at the end
Back of the pack, but
does have a kick at the Hard to see him in the money here
end.

Desormeaux follows me on
Twitter (go figure…)

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