2015 Kentucky Derby
Content
2014 Kentucky Derby Notes
(in order of preference)
PP
Name
The Short List
3
18
2
8
6
15
Materiality
American Pharaoh
Carpe Diem
Dortmund
Mubtaahij
Frosted
Trainer
Todd Pletcher
Bob Baffert
Todd Pletcher
Bob Baffert
Mike da Kock
Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey
Javier Castellano
Victor Espinoza
John Velazquez
Martin Garcia
Christophe
Soumillion
Joel Rosario
ML
Pros
Cons
What to look for
during the race
12-1
Undefeated in 3 starts. Only 1
graded stakes victory but that
was his last in the G1 Florida
Derby
The "jinx" - it's been
over 100 years since a
non-starter at 2years
old has won the Derby
He's going to press to
the front. I see him
close to the lead the
whole way
5-2
8-1
Has won 2 Grade 1 races; once
as a 2yr and in his last at
Keeneland. His Blue Grass
victory was impressive
3-1
6 starts and 6 wins; undefeated.
Plus Baffert's got his "GoTo" in
Garcia. Beautiful Santa Anita
Derby victory winning by 4+
lengths and 106 speed rating
20-1
International Star
Mike Maker
Miguel Mena
Dominated the Dubai circuit;
finishing with an impressive 8
length victory in UAE Derby
Draws a tough post
position coming from
the 2 hole
Fun Fact
Materiality is by champion
I normally tell people to not believe
the "hype" when it comes to the Afleet Alex, who won two-thirds
of the Triple Crown in 2005.
Derby. He'll be hyped. But this
Third in the Kentucky Derby.
maybe the time to believe it
At the 18th position
from the post he will
In Arkansas, he should he could
Victor Espinoza is going for backhave to come off the
come off the pace and still dominate.
to-back Derby wins (he rode
pace. If he's not in the
Espinoza can be patient. Look for a
California Chrome last year)
pack by the half mile
big race
post, he could be in
trouble
He's shown that he can
Of the 6 major contenders, he's the Carpe Diem, whose $1.6 million
come off the pace - he'll
"sleeper." Not my first choice, but sale price was the co-highest at
need that skill coming
definitely can close this
the Ocala Breeders' Sale
out of the 2 post
Speed like Dortmund's
This is horse that needs
doesn't always translate
the lead. He'll be up
at the Derby. He may
front. If he can get it
not be leader early on
and hold on - watch out
which is a question for
Pimlco
him
A true contender. I just wonder
about the size of the field and his Son of 2005 Derby winner Big
ability to come off the lead if need Brown
be.
Don't let the name scare you
The is the first Derby
First time on an
(pronounced: Moob-ta-higz).
He will be on the pace;
American track; hard to
Showed amazing talent in the UAE. appearance for South African
needs a clean trip but
judge the competition
Hard to assess against the American trainer de Kock and French rider
looks to have the talent
Soumillion
he faced in Dubai
contenders, but definitely do not
count out and could be a good price
15-1
Had a real letup in his
All depends if you believe in the
He tends to finish
Looks to be peaking at the right second start out at the
Frosted/Rosario story, or if the
strong; wouldn't be
time; Rosario may be the secret Fountain of Youth; only
Wood was just a "fluke". Would not
surprised if he's midsauce
has his maiden and the
be surprised if he won, but wouldn't
His father Tapit also won the
pack in the backstretch
Wood to call victories
be surprised if he finishes 6th either
Wood Memorial
20-1
He beat questionable
He's got some talent. With the right
Was the star at the Fair Grounds competition in the “Big
He'll sit back of the pack luck, he could capture. But hard to International Star is son of 2000
in New Orleans sweeping all 3
Easy” and his speed
waiting for a big run.
see the win, not a bad pick in your Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus
Derby prep races there.
figures are below the
trifecta or super though
top contenders.
Definitely could win, BUT a little Harder to See
12
Dominating on in his last 4
starts. Very impressive Arkansas The 18th position at
Derby (and looked like he had post will handicap him
much more to give)
Final Assessment
2014 Kentucky Derby Notes
(in order of preference)
PP
10
4
7
19
Name
Firing Line
Tencendur
El Kabeir
Upstart
Trainer
Simon Callaghan
George Weaver
John Terranova
Rick Violette, Jr.
Jockey
Gary Stevens
Manny Franco
Calvin Borel
Jose Ortiz
ML
What to look for
during the race
Pros
Cons
12-1
Has decent speed and slayed the
field in the Sunland Derby
Has lost twice to
Dortmund (although
each time only by a
head)
He'll press to be on the
lead the whole way
30-1
Ran a nice second in the Wood
to Frosted (with a 105 speed
rating)
Only victory is his
maiden
He'll need to stay just
off the pace to have a
shot
Has shown he can come well off
the pace to win
Disappointing Wood
Memorial
30-1
15-1
Final Assessment
Fun Fact
Running second in the Wood makes
him a mild contender
This is jockey Manny Franco's
first Derby start
By only losing to Dortmund by a
head (twice) and slaying, an albeit At the age of 52, jockey Gary
weak, field at Sunland, you have to Stevens seeks his fourth Derby
give him an outside chance to
victory
surprise
He's going to need some help here,
Look for him to press
not quite sure he's got the chops to
Calvin Borel is going for his 4th
the lead (on the (Bo)rail
win clean and square. That being
career Derby win
of course). He'll need a
said, he's got a shot (at a very nice
very clean trip
ML price)
Materiality had the
Has put up some nice speed
I see him mid-pack on
better of him in the
ratings and has 2 Grade 2
the backstretch.
victories; has always been in the Florida Derby; 19th post
is not a plus
money
A thoroughbred owner for
nearly 50 years, Ralph M Evans
My concern is the distant here, not has attended just one Kentucky
Derby, when his daughter
sure he wants 1 1/4 miles; although
wanted to attend instead of
he has not run a bad race. Don't
having a confirmation party; so
forget him in any exactas or tri's
he took her to the Derby to see
Spectacular Bid in 1979.
Probably best only to use as part of an exotic bet (i.e. exacta, trifectas, superfectas, etc.)
5
13
20
Danzig Moon
Itsaknockout
Far Right
Mark Casse
Todd Pletcher
Ron Mouquett
Julien Lepardoux
Luis Saez
Mike Smith
Owner John C Oxley is the son
of John T. Oxley, a Hall of Fame
Expect him to be well
polo player, and is an active
back early. He's a
polo player himself. John has
Bet to win only if love big prices and
been inducted into the Polo Hall
closer, if the pace is not
big dreams
of Fame, was a chairman of the
that hot he could close
U.S. Polo Association, and along
this joint
with his brother owns the Royal
Palm Polo Club in Florida.
30-1
Ran a respectable second to
Carpe Diem in the Blue Grass (99
speed rating)
30-1
Had a 102 speed rating in second
Should be about midstart (Optional claimer) and ran
Well beaten by
pack in the backstretch;
Hard to see him in the money here
a respectable 2nd in the
Materiality and Upstart
he'll try to make the one
Fountain of Youth (although
in the Florida Derby
run
finished First by disqualification)
Trainer Todd Pletcher ranks
second by Kentucky Derby
starters with 40, trailing only
living-legend D. Wayne Lukas.
A nice horse - with a victory in
Was no match to
the Southwest Stakes and 2nd in American Pharaoh in
the Arkansas Derby (although 8 the Arkansas. Enough
lengths back from Am Pharaoh)
said.
Owner Harry T Rosenblum’s
name was coined from Harry S.
Truman, who served as
Rosenblum’s godfather as well
as serving our country as the
thirty-third President of the
United States.
30-1
Only victory is his
maiden
He'll be towards the
back of the pack (and
most likely stay there)
Just hasn't shown the speed to
compete with this crowd. Also see
"cons"
2014 Kentucky Derby Notes
(in order of preference)
PP
1
Name
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Trainer
Jim Cassidy
Jockey
Elvis Trujillo
ML
50-1
Pros
Undefeated as a 2 year old.
Cons
What to look for
during the race
Ran a distant 3rd to
He'll hang back and wait
Carpe Diem and Danzig
for a run
Moon in the Blue Grass
Final Assessment
Not feeling it here
If you liked Mine That Bird, you'll love...
17
Mr. Z
16
War Story
9
Bolo
14
Keen Ice
21
Frammento
D. Wayne Lukas
Ramon Vazquez
50-1
Tom Amoss
Joe Talamo
50-1
Carla Gaines
Rafael Bejarano
30-1
Has had a 100 speed rating; has Winner of only one race
I can see him on or
finished in the money that last 5 and winless in the last
pressing the lead early
out of 6 races
10 races
Has never finished out of the
money
Has 2 races with 100+ speed
rating
Dale Romans
Kent Desormeaux
50-1
Jockey change?
Nick Zito
Corey Nakatani
50-1
He's in the race
International Star has
the better of him in
three starts
Change of jockey
(although could be a
positive) and losing
handily to Dortmund
twice doesn't bode well
for a victory here
Only victory is his
maiden; biggest race
was a 3rd placing in the
Risen Star
Very average speed
ratings
He'll lay back to make
one run
He probably doesn't finish last, but
doesn't finish in the money either
I just don't think he has the speed
here (even for a in-the-money play)
Fun Fact
Elvis Trujillo, a native of
Panama, is a 2000 graduate of
the famed Laffit Pincay Jr.
Jockey School.
Trainer Lukas is the all-time
leading money winner and the
first to reach the $200 million
plateau.
22 year old jockey Talamo
recently just got his 1000th
victory
He should charge to the
A good horse, probably not in the Gaines would be the first
front especially due to
his post position; we'll same class as some of these; but not woman trainer to win the Derby
see what he has left at a bad choice for a 3rd place finish if all works out.
the end
Should be at the back of
the pack in the
If you love long shots, he's your guy
backstretch; look for
one big run at the end
Back of the pack, but
does have a kick at the Hard to see him in the money here
end.
Desormeaux follows me on
Twitter (go figure…)
(in order of preference)
PP
Name
The Short List
3
18
2
8
6
15
Materiality
American Pharaoh
Carpe Diem
Dortmund
Mubtaahij
Frosted
Trainer
Todd Pletcher
Bob Baffert
Todd Pletcher
Bob Baffert
Mike da Kock
Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey
Javier Castellano
Victor Espinoza
John Velazquez
Martin Garcia
Christophe
Soumillion
Joel Rosario
ML
Pros
Cons
What to look for
during the race
12-1
Undefeated in 3 starts. Only 1
graded stakes victory but that
was his last in the G1 Florida
Derby
The "jinx" - it's been
over 100 years since a
non-starter at 2years
old has won the Derby
He's going to press to
the front. I see him
close to the lead the
whole way
5-2
8-1
Has won 2 Grade 1 races; once
as a 2yr and in his last at
Keeneland. His Blue Grass
victory was impressive
3-1
6 starts and 6 wins; undefeated.
Plus Baffert's got his "GoTo" in
Garcia. Beautiful Santa Anita
Derby victory winning by 4+
lengths and 106 speed rating
20-1
International Star
Mike Maker
Miguel Mena
Dominated the Dubai circuit;
finishing with an impressive 8
length victory in UAE Derby
Draws a tough post
position coming from
the 2 hole
Fun Fact
Materiality is by champion
I normally tell people to not believe
the "hype" when it comes to the Afleet Alex, who won two-thirds
of the Triple Crown in 2005.
Derby. He'll be hyped. But this
Third in the Kentucky Derby.
maybe the time to believe it
At the 18th position
from the post he will
In Arkansas, he should he could
Victor Espinoza is going for backhave to come off the
come off the pace and still dominate.
to-back Derby wins (he rode
pace. If he's not in the
Espinoza can be patient. Look for a
California Chrome last year)
pack by the half mile
big race
post, he could be in
trouble
He's shown that he can
Of the 6 major contenders, he's the Carpe Diem, whose $1.6 million
come off the pace - he'll
"sleeper." Not my first choice, but sale price was the co-highest at
need that skill coming
definitely can close this
the Ocala Breeders' Sale
out of the 2 post
Speed like Dortmund's
This is horse that needs
doesn't always translate
the lead. He'll be up
at the Derby. He may
front. If he can get it
not be leader early on
and hold on - watch out
which is a question for
Pimlco
him
A true contender. I just wonder
about the size of the field and his Son of 2005 Derby winner Big
ability to come off the lead if need Brown
be.
Don't let the name scare you
The is the first Derby
First time on an
(pronounced: Moob-ta-higz).
He will be on the pace;
American track; hard to
Showed amazing talent in the UAE. appearance for South African
needs a clean trip but
judge the competition
Hard to assess against the American trainer de Kock and French rider
looks to have the talent
Soumillion
he faced in Dubai
contenders, but definitely do not
count out and could be a good price
15-1
Had a real letup in his
All depends if you believe in the
He tends to finish
Looks to be peaking at the right second start out at the
Frosted/Rosario story, or if the
strong; wouldn't be
time; Rosario may be the secret Fountain of Youth; only
Wood was just a "fluke". Would not
surprised if he's midsauce
has his maiden and the
be surprised if he won, but wouldn't
His father Tapit also won the
pack in the backstretch
Wood to call victories
be surprised if he finishes 6th either
Wood Memorial
20-1
He beat questionable
He's got some talent. With the right
Was the star at the Fair Grounds competition in the “Big
He'll sit back of the pack luck, he could capture. But hard to International Star is son of 2000
in New Orleans sweeping all 3
Easy” and his speed
waiting for a big run.
see the win, not a bad pick in your Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus
Derby prep races there.
figures are below the
trifecta or super though
top contenders.
Definitely could win, BUT a little Harder to See
12
Dominating on in his last 4
starts. Very impressive Arkansas The 18th position at
Derby (and looked like he had post will handicap him
much more to give)
Final Assessment
2014 Kentucky Derby Notes
(in order of preference)
PP
10
4
7
19
Name
Firing Line
Tencendur
El Kabeir
Upstart
Trainer
Simon Callaghan
George Weaver
John Terranova
Rick Violette, Jr.
Jockey
Gary Stevens
Manny Franco
Calvin Borel
Jose Ortiz
ML
What to look for
during the race
Pros
Cons
12-1
Has decent speed and slayed the
field in the Sunland Derby
Has lost twice to
Dortmund (although
each time only by a
head)
He'll press to be on the
lead the whole way
30-1
Ran a nice second in the Wood
to Frosted (with a 105 speed
rating)
Only victory is his
maiden
He'll need to stay just
off the pace to have a
shot
Has shown he can come well off
the pace to win
Disappointing Wood
Memorial
30-1
15-1
Final Assessment
Fun Fact
Running second in the Wood makes
him a mild contender
This is jockey Manny Franco's
first Derby start
By only losing to Dortmund by a
head (twice) and slaying, an albeit At the age of 52, jockey Gary
weak, field at Sunland, you have to Stevens seeks his fourth Derby
give him an outside chance to
victory
surprise
He's going to need some help here,
Look for him to press
not quite sure he's got the chops to
Calvin Borel is going for his 4th
the lead (on the (Bo)rail
win clean and square. That being
career Derby win
of course). He'll need a
said, he's got a shot (at a very nice
very clean trip
ML price)
Materiality had the
Has put up some nice speed
I see him mid-pack on
better of him in the
ratings and has 2 Grade 2
the backstretch.
victories; has always been in the Florida Derby; 19th post
is not a plus
money
A thoroughbred owner for
nearly 50 years, Ralph M Evans
My concern is the distant here, not has attended just one Kentucky
Derby, when his daughter
sure he wants 1 1/4 miles; although
wanted to attend instead of
he has not run a bad race. Don't
having a confirmation party; so
forget him in any exactas or tri's
he took her to the Derby to see
Spectacular Bid in 1979.
Probably best only to use as part of an exotic bet (i.e. exacta, trifectas, superfectas, etc.)
5
13
20
Danzig Moon
Itsaknockout
Far Right
Mark Casse
Todd Pletcher
Ron Mouquett
Julien Lepardoux
Luis Saez
Mike Smith
Owner John C Oxley is the son
of John T. Oxley, a Hall of Fame
Expect him to be well
polo player, and is an active
back early. He's a
polo player himself. John has
Bet to win only if love big prices and
been inducted into the Polo Hall
closer, if the pace is not
big dreams
of Fame, was a chairman of the
that hot he could close
U.S. Polo Association, and along
this joint
with his brother owns the Royal
Palm Polo Club in Florida.
30-1
Ran a respectable second to
Carpe Diem in the Blue Grass (99
speed rating)
30-1
Had a 102 speed rating in second
Should be about midstart (Optional claimer) and ran
Well beaten by
pack in the backstretch;
Hard to see him in the money here
a respectable 2nd in the
Materiality and Upstart
he'll try to make the one
Fountain of Youth (although
in the Florida Derby
run
finished First by disqualification)
Trainer Todd Pletcher ranks
second by Kentucky Derby
starters with 40, trailing only
living-legend D. Wayne Lukas.
A nice horse - with a victory in
Was no match to
the Southwest Stakes and 2nd in American Pharaoh in
the Arkansas Derby (although 8 the Arkansas. Enough
lengths back from Am Pharaoh)
said.
Owner Harry T Rosenblum’s
name was coined from Harry S.
Truman, who served as
Rosenblum’s godfather as well
as serving our country as the
thirty-third President of the
United States.
30-1
Only victory is his
maiden
He'll be towards the
back of the pack (and
most likely stay there)
Just hasn't shown the speed to
compete with this crowd. Also see
"cons"
2014 Kentucky Derby Notes
(in order of preference)
PP
1
Name
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Trainer
Jim Cassidy
Jockey
Elvis Trujillo
ML
50-1
Pros
Undefeated as a 2 year old.
Cons
What to look for
during the race
Ran a distant 3rd to
He'll hang back and wait
Carpe Diem and Danzig
for a run
Moon in the Blue Grass
Final Assessment
Not feeling it here
If you liked Mine That Bird, you'll love...
17
Mr. Z
16
War Story
9
Bolo
14
Keen Ice
21
Frammento
D. Wayne Lukas
Ramon Vazquez
50-1
Tom Amoss
Joe Talamo
50-1
Carla Gaines
Rafael Bejarano
30-1
Has had a 100 speed rating; has Winner of only one race
I can see him on or
finished in the money that last 5 and winless in the last
pressing the lead early
out of 6 races
10 races
Has never finished out of the
money
Has 2 races with 100+ speed
rating
Dale Romans
Kent Desormeaux
50-1
Jockey change?
Nick Zito
Corey Nakatani
50-1
He's in the race
International Star has
the better of him in
three starts
Change of jockey
(although could be a
positive) and losing
handily to Dortmund
twice doesn't bode well
for a victory here
Only victory is his
maiden; biggest race
was a 3rd placing in the
Risen Star
Very average speed
ratings
He'll lay back to make
one run
He probably doesn't finish last, but
doesn't finish in the money either
I just don't think he has the speed
here (even for a in-the-money play)
Fun Fact
Elvis Trujillo, a native of
Panama, is a 2000 graduate of
the famed Laffit Pincay Jr.
Jockey School.
Trainer Lukas is the all-time
leading money winner and the
first to reach the $200 million
plateau.
22 year old jockey Talamo
recently just got his 1000th
victory
He should charge to the
A good horse, probably not in the Gaines would be the first
front especially due to
his post position; we'll same class as some of these; but not woman trainer to win the Derby
see what he has left at a bad choice for a 3rd place finish if all works out.
the end
Should be at the back of
the pack in the
If you love long shots, he's your guy
backstretch; look for
one big run at the end
Back of the pack, but
does have a kick at the Hard to see him in the money here
end.
Desormeaux follows me on
Twitter (go figure…)
