2015 q1 Crescent Fund

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2015 q1 Crescent Fund

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Content

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FPA Crescent
Fund
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FPACX*

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*Charles Schwab Ticker: FPC1Z

First Quarter 2015
Webcast Presentation

Presented by: Contrarian Value Team

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Philosophy

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Seek long-term, equity-like returns with less risk than the stock market while avoiding
permanent impairment of capital

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 Absolute Return Focus

 Flexible Approach
 Deep Research

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1

Performance
FPA Crescent

S&P 500

60% S&P 500/
40% Barclays
Aggregate

10.87%

9.32%

8.20%

10.18%

14.76%

9.03%

0.58

0.29

0.35

Annualized returns*
Sharpe ratio

$100,000
$90,000
$80,000
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000

$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000

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$0
1993

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1995

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1997

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Standard deviation

FPACX
$95,195
S&P 500
$69,924

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1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

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60% S&P 500/
40% BC Agg
$55,813

2015

Average Annual Total Returns as of March 31, 2015 for FPA Crescent
1 Year, 4.67%
5 Years, 9.73%
10 Years, 8.17%
* Source: Morningstar. Source: Morningstar. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and current performance may be higher or lower than the performance shown. The
return shown is at net asset value (NAV) and does not reflect the deduction of the sales charge, which if reflected, would reduce the performance shown. Please refer to the back
of the presentation for full disclosure information. Total return calculations are based on a $10,000 investment. This data represents past performance and investors should
understand that investment returns and principal values fluctuate, so that when you redeem your investment it may be worth more or less than its original cost. Current month-end
performance data may be obtained by calling toll-free, 1-800-982-4372. Expense ratio as of most recent prospectus is 1.26%. A redemption fee of 2% may apply. The Fund
commenced investment operations on June 2, 1993. The performance shown for periods prior to March 1, 1996 reflects the historical performance of a predecessor fund. FPA
assumed control of the predecessor fund on March 1, 1996. The FPA Crescent Fund's objectives, policies, guidelines and restrictions are, in all material respects, equivalent to
those of the predecessor fund.

2

Performance
Trailing Performance (%)
As of Date: 3/31/2015

Inception*

15 Years

10 Years

5 Years

3 Years

1 Year

YTD

10.87

10.93

8.17

9.73

10.45

4.67

0.15

S&P 500

9.32

4.15

8.01

14.47

16.11

12.73

0.95

CPI

2.28

2.16

2.02

1.64

0.99

-0.02

-0.23

60% S&P500/40% BC Agg

8.20

5.07

7.06

10.60

10.88

10.00

1.30

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

6.64

21.95

10.33

3.02

12.04

28.37

-20.55

13.69

32.39

16.00

2.11

15.06

26.46

-37.00

FPA Crescent

S&P 500
CPI
60% S&P500/40% BC Agg

3/25/00-10/9/07

10/10/07-3/31/15

14.70

7.07

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Yearly Performance (%)
FPA Crescent

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Market Cycle Performance

2.00

6.09

2.75

1.65

4.70

6.27

2006

2005

2004

2003

6.84

12.43

10.83

10.21

26.15

5.49

15.79

4.91

10.88

28.68

0.68

1.53

1.77

3.03

1.44

2.81

-0.02

4.11

2.52

3.34

3.34

2.04

10.62

17.56

11.31

4.69

12.13

18.40

-22.06

6.22

11.12

4.00

8.30

18.48

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Performance is annualized for periods exceeding 1 Year. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Calculated using Morningstar Direct.
Expense ratio as of the most recent prospectus is 1.23%.
*The Fund commenced investment operations on June 2, 1993. The performance shown for periods prior to March 1, 1996 reflects the historical performance of a predecessor
fund. FPA assumed control of the predecessor fund on March 1, 1996. The FPA Crescent Fund's objectives, policies, guidelines and restrictions are, in all material respects,
equivalent to those of the predecessor fund.

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S&P 500 Index includes a representative sample of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The index focuses on the large-cap segment of the market,
with over 80% coverage of U.S. equities, but is also considered a proxy for the total market. CPI is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of
consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food and medical care. The CPI is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods
and averaging them; the goods are weighted according to their importance. 60% S&P500/40% Barclays Aggregate Index is a hypothetical combination of unmanaged indices
comprised of 60% S&P 500 Index and 40% Barclays Aggregate Index, the Fund's neutral mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds.

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Market Cycle Performance reflects two most recent market cycles (peak to peak) defined as a period that contains a decline of at least 15% from the previous market peak over at
least a two-month period and a rebound to establish a new peak above the previous one by S&P 500 Index.

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This presentation is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer of securities nor the solicitation for purchase or sale of any securities.
This presentation is confidential and is not intended for public use or distribution. The information presented may not be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent of
First Pacific Advisors, LLC (“FPA”). Certain information contained herein has been obtained from third parties and is believed to be reliable; however, FPA assumes no
responsibility for the accuracy of the information.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results and current performance may be higher or lower than performance shown. This data represents past performance and
investors should understand that investment returns and principal values fluctuate, so that when you redeem your investment it may be worth more or less than its original cost.
Current month-end performance data may be obtained by calling toll-free, 1-800-982-4372.

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Market cycle returns
3/25/2000 – 10/9/2007

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10/10/2007 – 3/31/2015

$30,000

$18,000

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$16,000
$25,000

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$14,000

$20,000

$12,000

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$10,000

$15,000

$8,000

$10,000

$6,000

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FPACX
$5,000

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S&P 500

FPACX

S&P 500

Annualized
Return

Max
Drawdown

$4,000

Annualized
Return

Max
Drawdown

FPA Crescent Fund
(Average liquidity = 29.50%)1

14.70%

-10.94%

FPA Crescent Fund
(Average liquidity = 30.80%)1

7.07%

-28.84%

S&P 500 Index

2.00%

-44.73%

S&P 500 Index

6.09%

-50.95%

4.70%

-22.82%

60% S&P 500 / 40% BC Agg.

6.27%

-32.54%

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60% S&P 500 / 40% BC Agg.

Market Cycle Performance reflects two most recent market cycles (peak to peak) defined as a period that contains a decline of at least 15% from the previous market
peak over at least a two-month period and a rebound to establish a new peak above the previous one by S&P 500 Index.
1 We

make a distinction between cash and liquidity, although we sometimes use them interchangeably. Cash includes the cash received from securities sold short and,
as a result, can appear to overstate the cash balance. Therefore, we believe liquidity, which nets that out, is the more appropriate measure. Past performance is no
guarantee of future result.

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Q1 2015: Winners and Losers

Winners

Performance
Contribution

Percent of
Portfolio

Losers

Naspers

0.35%

2.32%

Tencent

TE Connectivity

0.27%

2.24%

Microsoft

CVS

0.20%

2.14%

Thermo Fisher Scientific

0.14%

2.14%

Alibaba

0.14%

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Performance
Contribution

Percent of
Portfolio

-0.54%

-2.27%

-0.35%

2.96%

Alcoa

-0.27%

1.24%

Oracle

-0.15%

3.72%

Bank of America

-0.13%

0.93%

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-0.56%

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Based on weighted contribution to quarterly performance of the Fund. Percentage of portfolio as of March 31, 2015.
As of March 31, 2015. Portfolio composition will change due to ongoing management of the Fund. References to specific securities or sectors should not be construed as recommendations by the
Fund, its Advisor or Distributor. The discussions of Fund investments represent the views of the Fund's managers at the time of each report and are subject to change without notice. These views may
not be relied upon as investment advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any First Pacific Advisors portfolio. Security examples featured are samples for presentation purposes and are
intended to illustrate our investment philosophy and its application. It should not be assumed that most recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the
securities.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please refer to the back of the presentation for full disclosure information.

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Portfolio characteristics
FPACX
Q1 2015

Price/Earnings2
Price/Book3
Debt/Capital4
Return on Equity5

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Market Capitalization (in millions)1

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FPACX
Average

$95,856

$27,312

19.4

16.6

1.9

1.7

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S&P 500

$133,980
19.8

2.9

-5.0%

9.1%

51.2%

13.9%

12.8%

18.7%

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Source: FPA and Mellon
For Crescent Fund since 9/30/1996, based on earliest data. Market capitalization is the value of a corporation as determined by the market price of its issued and outstanding
common stock. It is calculated by multiplying the number of outstanding shares by the current market price of a share.
2 P/E and average P/E reflect the trailing 12 months, since 3/31/1999, based on earliest data. Price/Earnings ratio (P/E) is the price of a stock divided by its earnings per share.
3 Average since 9/30/1996, based on earliest data. Price/Book ratio is the current closing price of the stock by the latest quarter’s book value per share.
4 Average since 12/31/1997, based on earliest data. Debt/Total Capital for a fund's underlying stock holdings is calculated by dividing each security's long-term debt by its total
capitalization (the sum of common equity plus preferred equity and long-term debt) and is a measure of the company's financial leverage.
5 Average since 3/31/1999, based on earliest data. Return on Equity is the amount of profit computed by dividing net income before taxes less preferred dividends by the value
of stockholders’ equity.

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Past performance is no guarantee of future results and current performance may be higher or lower than the performance shown. This data represents past performance and
investors should understand that investment returns and principal values fluctuate, so that when you redeem your investment it may be worth more or less than its original
cost. Current month-end performance data may be obtained via http://www.fpafunds.com/crescent or by calling toll-free, 1-800-982-4372.

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Portfolio allocation
Risk Asset

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Q1 2015

Q4 2014

Q1 2014

Common stock, long

55.8%

55.5%

53.1%

Common stock, short

-3.8%

-4.2%

-1.9%

Corporate debt, long

1.8%

1.4%

0.6%

12.7%

Corporate debt, short

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Mortgages

1.3%

1.4%

0.4%

0.5%

0.8%

1.4%

0.3%

54.9%

53.6%

63.4%

51

50

38

Other
Exposure, Net
No. of Equity Positions

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55.7%

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0.6%

51

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Average
53.1%
-4.8%

Portfolio composition will change due to ongoing management of the Fund. References to specific securities or sectors should not be construed as recommendations by the
Fund, its Advisor or Distributor. The discussions of Fund investments represent the views of the Fund's managers at the time of each report and are subject to change without
notice. These views may not be relied upon as investment advice or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any First Pacific Advisors portfolio. Security examples featured
are samples for presentation purposes and are intended to illustrate our investment philosophy and its application. It should not be assumed that most recommendations made in
the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities.

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Length of S&P 500 bull market

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Source: http::/1.bp.blogspot.com/-xBLEfg8gZBo/VQKJkLfy_rI/AAAAAAAAc8E/Ozyzgbn3LqI/s1600/SG%2B2015-03-13B.png
Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the index performance is not representative of the Crescent Fund.
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Government bond yields
Country

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United States
Canada
Brazil (USD)
Colombia (USD)
Mexico (USD)
U.K.
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
Portugal
Sweden
Netherlands
Switzerland
Greece
Japan
Australia
New Zealand
South Korea
Average
Average ex-Greece

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10-Year
Gov't Bond
1.92%
1.43%
4.12%
3.43%
3.20%
1.65%
0.42%
0.15%
1.44%
1.38%
1.96%
0.33%
0.30%
-0.16%
12.36%
0.28%
2.53%
3.36%
2.30%
2.23%
1.67%

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*As of April 24, 2015

Source: Bloomberg

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Historic P/E ratio using 10-year average earnings

45
40

Price-Earnings Ratio

35

Apr. 7, 2015

P/E

10-Year UST

Current

26.8

1.9%

Since 1881

16.6

4.6%

Since 1930

17.5

5.1%

Since 1950

18.9

5.9%

Since 1970

19.5

6.7%

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30
25
20
15

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10
5
0
1881

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1900

1919

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16
14
12
10
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10-Year US Treasury Notes

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50

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4
2
0

1938
CAPE Price E10 Ratio

1957

1976

1995

2014

Interest Rate

Source: Shiller, Robert J. Online Data Robert Shiller, econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm, and Bloomberg. Data as of April 7, 2015. P/E or price-to-earnings is a
valuation ratio of a company’s current share price compared to its per-share earnings. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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Stock valuations are historically high

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Source: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-He-FUT80LBk/VRW9-GphrrI/AAAAAAAAdJA/IoWdjLLJYuU/s1600/PE-10%2BShort.png
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Operating margins

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Source: http://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500margin.pdf. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results and the index performance is not representative of
the Crescent Fund.
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Corporate profits
12%

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10%

Percent

8%

6%

4%

2%

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0%
1947

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1952

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1958

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1963

1969

1974

1980

1986

1991

1997

2002

2008

2014

Corporate Profits After Tax / GDP

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Data as of October 1, 2014.
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General Electric
Transformation of the GE portfolio (2001 - Present)

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Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Equity, GE presentation. As of 3/31/15, General Electric represented 1.02% of FPA Crescent Fund’s total net assets.
Portfolio composition will change due to ongoing management of the Fund. References to specific securities or sectors should not be construed as
recommendations by the Fund, its Advisor or Distributor.
14

General Electric

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Source: GE company reports.

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General Electric

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GE - 3 year Outlook

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Year 3

Earnings
Wall Street View

Reasonable Worst Case

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$

2.1

$

2.0

$

1.8

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$

1.7

Multiple
17.5 x

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15.0 x
12.5 x
10.0 x

Excess
capital

Share price

Value

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Return

$

36.8

$

6.0

$

42.8

21.2%

$

30.0

$

6.0

$

36.0

14.5%

$

22.5

$

6.0

$

28.5

5.9%

$

17.0

$

6.0

$

23.0

-1.4%

Source: FPA estimates

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General Electric

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Scott Davis - Barclays Capital - Analyst

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Congrats. This is big stuff and I know we have all given you a lot of crap
over the years but this is pretty good stuff for redemption. So thanks for
that. That's my best apology I can make, by the way. That's as good as I
can get. You can keep your job a little longer, I guess.
Anyways, I'm looking at slide 12 at the exit costs and the $23 billion impact.
I assume that if you had gains on any of the sales that would be a natural
offset to that. Is that a correct way to think about it?

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Source: General Electric Co. Conference Call, April 10, 2015
17

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Q&A

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For Institutional Use Only/Not for Public Use

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Disclaimer

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These slides are intended as supplemental material to the 1st Quarter 2015 FPA Crescent audio presentation that is posted on our website fpafunds.com.

We do want to make sure you understand that the views expressed on these slides and in the accompanying audio presentation are as of today, April 30, 2015 and
are subject to change based on market and other conditions. These views may differ from other portfolio managers and analysts of the firm as a whole, and are not
intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Any mention of individual securities or sectors should not be construed
as a recommendation to purchase or sell such securities, and any information provided is not a sufficient basis upon which to make an investment decision. The
information provided does not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer or solicitation with respect to any securities, products or services discussed.

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Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This data represents past performance and investors should understand that investment returns and
principal values fluctuate, so that when you redeem your investment it may be worth more or less than its original cost. Performance has been calculated
on a total return basis, which combines principal and dividend income changes for the periods shown. Principal changes are based on the difference
between the beginning and closing net asset values for the period and assume reinvestment of all dividends and distributions paid. All applicable
expenses such as advisory fees have been included in calculating performance. It should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be
profitable or will equal the performance of the security examples discussed. Current month-end performance data may be obtained by calling toll-free, 1800-982-4372.

You should consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses carefully before you invest. The Prospectus
details the Fund's objective and policies and other matters of interest to the prospective investor. Please read this Prospectus carefully
before investing. The Prospectus may be obtained by visiting the website at www.fpafunds.com, by email at [email protected], toll-free
by calling 1-800-982-4372 or by contacting the Fund in writing.

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Statistics have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index
(S&P 500) is a capitalization-weighted index which covers industrial, utility, transportation and financial service companies, and represents approximately 75% of the
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) capitalization and 30% of NYSE issues. This index is considered a measure of large capitalization stock performance. The index
does not reflect any commissions or fees which would be incurred by an investor purchasing the stocks it represents.

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Investments in mutual funds carry risks and investors may lose principal value. Stock markets are volatile and can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer,
political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. The Fund may purchase foreign securities, including American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and other
depository receipts, which are subject to interest rate, currency exchange rate, economic and political risks; this may be enhanced when investing in emerging
markets. Small and mid cap stocks involve greater risks and they can fluctuate in price more than larger company stocks. Short-selling involves increased risks and
transaction costs. You risk paying more for a security than you received from its sale.

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Interest rate risk is when interest rates go up, the value of fixed income securities, such as bonds, typically go down and investors may lose principal value. Credit risk
is the risk of loss of principal due to the issuer’s failure to repay a loan. Generally, the lower the quality rating of a security, the greater the risk that the issuer will fail to
pay interest fully and return principal in a timely manner. If an issuer defaults the security may lose some or all of its value.

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The return of principal in a bond investment is not guaranteed. Bonds have issuer, interest rate, inflation and credit risks. Lower rated bonds, callable bonds and other
types of debt obligations involve greater risks. Mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities are subject to prepayment risk and the risk of default on the
underlying mortgages or other assets.

The portfolio holdings as the most recent quarter end may be obtained at fpafunds.com/docs/funf-holdings/2015-03-crescent.pdf?sfvrsn=2.
The FPA Funds are distributed by UMB Distribution Services, LLC, 235 W. Galena Street, Milwaukee, WI, 53212.

19

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