Behavioral Finance

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BEHAVIORAL FINANCE COURSE SYLLABUS & OUTLINE
COURSE TITLE: QUARTER: INSTRUCTOR: Behavioral Finance Summer 2013 Charles E. P. Wood

COURSE NUMBER: X 430.137, Reg# Z2459

MEETING TIMES: Wednesdays 6:30-9:30 September 4th makeup session – Saturday, August 24th LOCATION: OFFICE HOURS: EMAIL HOURS: UCLA Campus, 146 Dodd Hall 5:00-6:15PM Tuesdays on campus, by appointment only. 2:00-4:00PM weekdays – [email protected]

Course Description: This course is based on the fundamental principle that the first step to successfully investing your money is not to lose it. Covering the theory and practice of behavioral finance, including a history of financial bubbles, scams, and a study of the heuristics ("rules of thumb") and biases that drive human behavior, other topics in this course include prospect theory, common investment mistakes, the role of randomness in finance, retirement planning, and practical applications of behavioral finance. Also presented are basic principles of traditional portfolio theory, and behavioral finance research that suggests there are persistent market traits that could generate excess returns Goals & Objectives: • Understand the history of bubbles, manias and irrationality in financial markets. • Learn and understand heuristics and biases that can cause irrational financial decisions. • Examine the effects of behavioral factors in financial markets. • Examine the validity of the Efficient Market Theory. • Get an overview of research in the behavioral finance field. • Make better investment decisions.

REQUIRED READING
We have two required reading things. The first is our “text” which doesn’t look like a text, more like something you’d like to read anyway. New it sells for $30, but available used through Amazon at about half that price. Shefrin, H. (2002). Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing. New York: Oxford University Press. ISBN: 978-0-19-530421-3. We also have an eCourse Pack published by UCLA Academic Publishing and “authored” by your instructor. Your instructor has read through a gazillion academic papers and journal articles in search of the best thinking in the world of behavioral finance. Authors include Thaler, Shiller, Malkiel, Fisher, Statman, Kahneman, and Tversky. The eCourse Pack is available as a set of downloadable PDFs for approximately $10. To purchase the course pack, click here link to
Summer 2013 23 June 2013 Behavioral Fin Syllabus rev.06.23.2013.docx

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register at study.net. Alternatively, you may paste the following link into your browser http://www.study.net/r_mat.asp?crs_id=30036045. Though not required, you may find the following book helpful. I suggest reading Chapters 1, 2, 4, 5, and the entirety of Part II, after you have read the required stuff. However, you may find Chapter 12 – Cumulative Prospect Theory: Tests Using the Stochastic Dominance Approach – dense and a bit cumbersome. Baker, H., & J. Nofsinger. (Eds.). (2010). Behavioral Finance: Investors, Corporations, and Markets. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons RECOMMENDED READINGS AND OTHER RESOURCES
Academic Papers and Journal Articles: a comprehensive bibliography follows the course schedule. Periodicals: The New York Times, Business Section (online: www.nytimes.com) Wall Street Journal, (online: www.wsj.com) Barron’s, Dow Jones & Company, weekly The Economist, weekly Books: Fooling Some of the People All of the Time by David Einhorn, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011. The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, updated by Jason Zweig, HarperBusinessEssentials, Revised Edition, 2003 Value Investing: Tools and Techniques for Intelligent Investment by James Montier, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 2009 The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street by Justin Fox, HarperCollins Publishers, 2009 Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing, by Hersh Shefrin, Oxford University Press, 2002 Animal Spirits by George A. Akerlof and Robert J. Shiller, Princeton University Press, 2009 A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton G. Malkiel, W. W. Norton & Company, 1999 Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, Charles Mackay, LL.D., originally published 1841, Harmony Books/New York, 1980 Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, (3rd Ed.) Charles P. Kindleberger, Wiley, 1978-1996 Irrational Exuberance, Robert J. Shiller, Princeton University Press 2000 (Paperback, also) The Great Crash, John Kenneth Galbraith, initially published 1954, available in paperback A Short History of Financial Euphoria, John Kenneth Galbraith, 1990, available in paperback Elements of Style, White and Strunk, first published who knows when, available in paperback Websites: National Bureau of Economic Research (www.nber.org) Economy.com (www.economy.com) The Federal Reserve Board – Statistics (www.federalreserve.gov/releases) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Economic Research (www.research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/) Standard and Poors (www2.standardandpoors.com) New York Stock Exchange (www.nyse.com) Securities Exchange Commission (www.sec.gov) SEC Edgar Database of Financial Filings (www.sec.gov/edgar) Value Engine (www.valuengine.com)

Participation Each of us is expected to be at every class. Each of us is expected to participate constructively. Since participation (defined as meaningful attendance, at a minimum) will comprise up to 10% of the course grade (more for those of us too shy to actively participate, less for those of us who like to hear ourselves talk), being there/here is important. The instructor has a fragile ego so absence will be taken as a personal affront. Just kidding.

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Quizzes and Exams Pop quizzes will be reserved for those of us who behave as if we are still in junior high (middle school for those under age 35). The midterm and final will be discussed during the first session. Problem Sets (busywork) expected to be completed prior to Class We are each old enough to know that “homework” is really “busywork” designed to keep us honest. From time-to-time, we may have a short take-home assignment, most likely a one or two page qualitative discussion of some relevant behavioral finance concept. Grading Grading, by its very nature is frequently believed to be arbitrary and capricious. However, the instructor has endeavored to divine a grading structure that permits both the instructor and the student maximum flexibility. The final grade (100 max, zero min) is composed of the abovementioned components. The approximate point allocations are as follows: Midterm Final Busywork Participation Total 30 50 ? 20 100

One constant in life is that if you, as a risk manager, lender, trader, investor, stock or bond research analyst, or investment manager, pay attention to the task at hand, you will do just fine. Assuming for the moment that the class is balanced, attends and participates regularly, a student who gets a total of 90-100 points will receive an A 80-89 points will receive a B 70-79 points will receive a C 65-69 points will receive a D Below 65 points will fail. Just like the global investment markets: the market’s the market, all prices grades are final. Final thoughts. The instructor is really big on language and communication skills. There are no degrees of uniqueness. Unique is unique. We often try to do something. To is not and. You can’t have a one without a two, or an A without a B. Hyperbole is just that, hyperbole. Puffery is best practiced by the Magic Dragon and Peter Paul & Mary. State facts, not superlatives. As with all things ephemeral, such as markets, liquidity, traffic, and weather, this syllabus is less an ancient roadmap chiseled in stone than a compass to guide us during the quarter. The capacity to learn requires an inquisitive mind, a high degree of objectivity, and absolute flexibility. As such, each session should be considered “Under Construction” given the rapidity with which the world [of finance and economics] is changing about us. I know where the quarter will begin, I have little idea where it will end.

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The Required Disclosures usually found in very small print: PLEASE NOTE: ALL COURSE GRADES ARE FINAL. Incompletes: The interim grade Incomplete may be assigned when a student’s work is of passing
quality, but a small portion of the course requirements is incomplete for good cause (e.g., illness or other serious problem). It is the student’s responsibility to discuss with the instructor the possibility of receiving an “I” grade as opposed to a non-passing grade. The student is entitled to replace this grade by a passing grade and to receive unit credit provided they complete the remaining coursework satisfactorily, under the supervision of and in a time frame determined by the instructor in charge, but in no case later than the end of the next academic quarter. At that time, the Registrar will cause all remaining Incompletes to lapse to the grade “F”. Note: Receiving an “I” does not entitle a student to retake all or any part of the course at a later date. Student Behavior involving cheating, copying other’s work, and plagiarism are not tolerated and will result in disciplinary action. Students are responsible for being familiar with the information on Student Conduct in the General Information Section of the UCLA Extension Catalog or on the website at www.uclaextension.edu

If you have any questions regarding the instructor’s grading policy, please raise any such questions immediately.

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SESSION DETAIL
1 June 26 Huh? Teaching Points: a. Introduction behavioral finance i. What’s my $20 bill really worth? ii. Psych games iii. The amygdala and cingulate gyrus b. PBS NOVA – Mind Over Money Reading: None that I can think of. July 3 Bubbles? Bubbles? Toil and Troubles? Teaching Points: a. BG&F: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing b. Bubblicious® i. Recurrent speculative euphoria ii. Comparing tech stocks to tulips iii. The South Sea Company? The Bubble Act? Of 1720, no less? iv. The Mississippi Scheme. c. The Great Crash. d. Dot.com this and dot.com that. e. A primer on sub-primes – the great humbling of 2008. Reading: Fisher – Blowing bubbles July 10 Behavioral finance? What is it good for? Teaching Points: a. Behavioral finance – what it is, sort of b. Heuristics? Biases? c. Frame dependence? d. Efficient, inefficient markets? Reading: BG&F – Chapters 1-3 Ritter – Behavioral Finance Thaler – The End of Behavioral Finance July 17 Open or Closed – Active vs. passive investing Teaching Points: a. It’s another day, trade away. b. Heuristics? c. Probability? d. Past begets future? Reading: BG&F – Chapters 12, 13 and Preface pages x-xv, xxiv-xxv, xxvi-xxxi Barber – Trading is hazardous to your wealth Fisher – Investment advice from mutual fund companies

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5

July 24 Aversion? To financial pain? Teaching Points: Risk or loss aversion? Reading: BG&F – Chapter 9 Kahneman – Timid choices and bold forecasts Tversky – Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases July 31 Modern “Behavioral” Portfolio Theory Teaching Points: a. Portfolio upside? Downside? Mental accounts? b. Who’s Harry Markowitz? Reversion to the mean? c. Diversification? Naïve diversification? d. Regret, optimism, overconfidence, undue optimism. Reading: BG&F – Chapters 10 & 11 Thaler – Mental accounting matters Tversky – Rational choice and the framing of decisions Aug 7 Efficient “behavioral” markets hypothesis and a bunch more… Teaching Points: a. EMH – weak, semi-strong, strong – in the behavioral finance context b. Heuristics? Again? c. Frame dependence? d. LTCM – overconfidence. e. Illusion of validity. f. Confirmation bias. Reading: BG&F – Chapters 1, 4, 6, 7, 8, 13 and Preface pages x-xii, xviii, and xviii

6

7

8 Aug 14

MIDTERM DUE; More of last week.

Teaching Points: More of session 7, above. a. EMH, again, weak, semi-strong, strong forms b. Did the EMH cause the crisis? A few expert opinions. c. Gambler’s fallacy Reading: What you didn’t get read for last week. 9 Aug 21 Market predictions, financial forecasting… Teaching Points: a. Segregation vs integration. b. Wealth effect… c. Retirement conundrum, mental accounting. d. Risk aversion: to punt or not to punt… e. The prisoner’s dilemma. f. The penalty kick. g. Individual investors… impact of risk aversion Reading: BG&F – Chapters 5, 14 and Preface pages xv and xvi Fisher – Cognitive Biases in Market Forecasts: The frailty of forecasting Törngren – Worse than chance? Performance and confidence among professionals and laypeople in the stock market
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10 Aug 24

Saturday Makeup Session - The Money Management Biz

Teaching Points: a. Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model… b. EMH assumptions. c. Chance… probability? LTCM? Biases? d. The quarterly analysts call e. Apple vs Facebook… f. Investment committee decisions based on… a. Diversification? b. Targeted rates of return? c. Active vs. passive portfolio managers? d. Risk tolerance? e. Fiduciary responsibilities? Reading: BG&F – Chapter 15 and Preface page xxv Thaler – Anomalies: The Winner’s Curse 11 Aug 28 So what’s it all about, Alfie? Teaching Points: a. Been there? b. Done that? c. “Bad boy, whuh’cha gonna do when the come for you?? Reading: Malkiel – The Efficient Market Hypothesis and its Critics.

12 Sept 11

FINAL DUE; Course Wrap-up

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BEHAVIORAL FINANCE BIBLIOGRAPHY
SUMMER 2013

Barber, B. M., & T. Odean, 2000, Trading is hazardous to your wealth: the common stock investment performance of individual investors, The Journal of Finance, 45(2).
Over-confidence Individuals – tremendous penalty for active trading. See LA Times 401(K) day trading Couple with Fisher & Statman – Investment advice from mutual fund companies

Barber, B. M., & T. Odean., 2001, The internet and the investor, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(1)(Winter 2001), 41-54. http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/.
Technology – change in info delivery and increased ways investor may act on info

Fisher, K. L., & M. Statman, 1997, Investment advice from mutual fund companies, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Fall 1997, 9-25.
Individual investor – retirement saving Couple with LA Times 401(K) day trading and Barber/Odean Trading is hazardous…

Fisher, K. L., & M. Statman, 1999, A behavioral framework for time diversification, Financial Analysts Journal, May/June 1999, 88-97.
Prospect theory Boundaries of risk: frames and cognitive errors, self-control, regret Time diversification: B&H, equities - 100-age (as a %) - $ cost averaging?

Fisher, K. L., & M. Statman, 2000, Cognitive Biases in Market Forecasts: The frailty of forecasting, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Fall 2000, 72-81.
Illusion of validity: Over confidence Confirmation Representativeness Anchoring Hindsight Couple with Kahneman/Tversky Judgment under uncertainty

Fisher, K. L., & M. Statman, 2002, Blowing bubbles, The Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets, 3(1), 53-65. Optimism vs. Pessimism Pro vs individual – perception of bubbles Kahneman, D., & D. Lovallo, 1993, Timid choices and bold forecasts: a cognitive perspective on risk taking, Management Science, vol. 39(1)(January 1993), 17-31. JSTOR. Anchoring Risk taking

Summer 2013

23 June 2013

Behavioral Finance Readings 06.23.2013.docx

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Lowenstein, G., C. Camerer & D. Prelec, 2007, Neuro-economics: how neuroscience can inform economics, Rotman Magazine, Winter 2007, 40-44. HBSP: ROT038
Standard economic theory: constrained utility maximization… model of deliberation (Mind over Money) Science: automatic & emotional processing

Malkiel, B. G. (2003). The efficient market hypothesis and its critics. Center for Economic Policy Studies. Working Paper No. 91. April 2003. http://www.princeton.edu/ceps/workingpapers/91malkiel.pdf
EMH vs behavioral economics EMH intellectual dominance Attacks on EMH Excellent overview

Ritter, J. R., 2003, Behavioral finance, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 11(4), September 2003, 429-437.
BF intro: BF drops expected utility maximization theory… based on absence of rational investor Cognitive – how people think Limits of arbitrage – how markets return to efficiency, not

Shiller, R. J., 1984, Stock prices and social dynamics, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (1984), 2: 457–498. [CFDP 719R, CFP 616]
Excellent, relatively early paper Investing is a social activity Limited, avoidable models

Taylor, S. E., & J. D. Brown, 1988, Illusion and well-being: a social psychological perspective on mental health, Psychological Bulletin, vol. 103(2), 193-210.
“Scientific” psych perspective… real humans, real behavior Positive illusion Incoming messages distorted in positive direction Negative – isolated and represented in as unthreatening manner as possible

Thaler, R. H., 1988, Anomalies: the winner’s curse, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2(1)(Winter 1988), 191-202. JSTOR.
Winner’s Curse: Pays too much/more than necessary to win Project fails to met/exceed expectations

Thaler, R. H., 1999, Mental accounting matters, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, December 1999, 183-206. http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/richard.thaler/research//index.html.
Utility maximization = hedonic model, psychology of choice 1) How outcomes are perceived 2) Assignment of activities to a particular account 3) Frequency of evaluation – portfolio rebalancing, never
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Thaler, R. H., 1999, The end of behavioral finance, Association for Investment Management and Research, November/December 1999, 12-17. http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/richard.thaler/research/pdf/end.pdf. JSTOR.
EMH vs. BF (cognitive) Evidence: 1) Volume 2) Volatility 3) Dividends 4) Equity premium puzzle 5) Predictability

Törngren, G., & H. Montgomery, 2004, Worse than chance? Performance and confidence among professionals and laypeople in the stock market, The Journal of Behavioral Finance, 5(3), 148-153.
Probability – 2 studies, pro & laypeople asked for 30-day forecasts, estimate of own error Over confidence: both groups overconfident. Pros successful only 40% of time, well below chance expectation

Tversky, A., & D. Kahneman, 1974, Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases, Science, vol. 185(4157)( Sep 27, 1974), 1124-1131. JSTOR.
Framing 1) Representativeness 2) Availability 3) Adjustment & anchoring Couple with Fisher/Statman Cognitive biases…

Tversky, A., & D. Kahneman, 1986, Rational choice and the framing of decisions, Journal of Business, vol. 59(4)2, S251-S278. JSTOR.
Framing vs. invariance - two outcomes with the same “utility” should be considered the same Rational choice… utility maximization 1) Cancellation: elimination of any state of the world that yields the same outcome regardless of one’s choice. 2) Transivity: A preferred to B when u(A)>u(B), outcomes independent of each other & evaluated separately 3) Dominance: better than other in one, at least as good in all other outcomes 4) Invariance – framing independence – same choice should yield same preference regardless of framing

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Behavioral finance in several nutshells… should you have an insatiable appetite for further knowledge and understanding of what some think makes us do what we do….
Baker, H., & J. Nofsinger. (Eds.). (2010). Behavioral Finance: Investors, Corporations, and Markets. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons Barber, B. M., & T. Odean, 2000, Trading is hazardous to your wealth: the common stock investment performance of individual investors, The Journal of Finance, 45(2). Barberis, N., & R. Thaler. (2003). A survey of behavioral finance. In G. M. Constantinides, M. Harris, & R. Stulz (Eds.). Handbook of the economics of finance (Chapter 18). Amsterdam: Elsevier Science. B. V. Bernard, V. L., & J. K. Thomas, 1990, Post-earnings-announcement drift: delayed price response or risk premium?, Journal of Accounting Research, 27(Supplement 1989). Chancellor, E. (1999). Devil take the hindmost: a history of financial speculation. London: Plume, Penguin Books Ltd. ISBN: 978-0-452-28180-6. Cutler, D. M., J. M. Poterba, & L. H. Summers, 1989, What moves stock prices?, Journal of Portfolio Management, 15(3). De Bondt. W. F.M., & R. Thaler, 1985, Does the stock market overreact?, The Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793-805. De Bondt. W. F. M., 1993, Betting on trends: intuitive forecasts of financial risk and return, International Journal of Forecasting, 9 (1993), 355-371. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. (1907). Panic of 1907. Boston, MA: Author. Retrieved from http://www.bos.frb.org/about/pubs/panicof1.pdf. Fisher, K. L., & M. Statman, 1997, Investment advice from mutual fund companies, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Fall 1997, 9-25. Fisher, K. L., & M. Statman, 1999, A behavioral framework for time diversification, Financial Analysts Journal, May/June 1999, 88-97. Fisher, K. L., & M. Statman, 2000, Cognitive Biases in Market Forecasts: The frailty of forecasting, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Fall 2000, 72-81. Fisher, K. L., & M. Statman, 2002, Blowing bubbles, The Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets, 3(1), 53-65. Fox, J. (2009). The myth of the rational market. New York: HarperCollins Publishers. ISBN: 978-0-06-059899-0. Frederick, S., 2005, Cognitive reflection and decision making, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 19(4), 25-42. Galbraith, J. K. (1990). A short history of financial euphoria. New York: Penguin Books. ISBN: 0-120-23856-5. Graham, B. (1973). The intelligent investor: a book of practical counsel. New York: HarperCollins Publishers. ISBN: 0-06-055566-1. Hausman, D. M. (Ed.). (1994, 1984). The philosophy of economics: an anthology (Second Edition). Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 0-521-45929-X. Kindleberger, C. P. (1966,1989,1978). Manias, panics, and crashes: a history of financial crises. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. ISBN: 0-471-16171-3. MacKay, C. (1841). Extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds (originally published under title: Memoirs of extraordinary popular delusions). New York: Harmony Books (1980). ISBN: 0-517-53919-5. Malkiel, B. G. (1999-1973). A random walk down wall street. New York: W. W. Norton & Company. ISBN: 0-393-32040-5. Marais, M. L., 1989, Discussion of post-earnings-announcement drift: delayed price response or risk premium?, Journal of Accounting Research, 27(Supplement 1989), 37-48. Mauboussin, M. J.. (2008, 2006). More than you know: finding financial wisdom in unconventional places. New York: Columbia University Press. ISBN: 978-0-231-14372-1. Montier, J. (2010). The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How not to be your own worst enemy. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. ISBN: 978-047-683590-0. Montier, J. (2009). Value investing: tools and techniques for intelligent investment. Chichester, United Kingdom: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. ISBN: 978-0-470-68602-7.
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Odean, T., 1998, Are investors reluctant to realize their losses? The Journal of Finance, 53(5), 1775-1798. Ritter, J. R., 2003, Behavioral finance, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 11(4), 429-437. Russo, J., & P. Schoemaker. (2002). Winning decisions. New York: Doubleday, Random House, Inc. ISBN 385-50225-7. Schleifer, A. (2000). Inefficient markets: an introduction to behavioral finance. New York: Oxford University Press. ISBN 0-19-829227-9. Sewell, M., 2007, Behavioural Finance (revised 2010). http://www.behaviouralfinance.net. Sharpe, W. F., “Capital asset prices with and without negative holdings”, Stanford University Graduate School of Business, Stanford, California, December, 7, 1990, Nobel lecture. Shefrin, H. (2002). Beyond greed and fear: understanding behavioral finance and the psychology of investing. New York: Oxford University Press. ISBN: 978-0-19-530421-3. Shiller, R. J. (2000). Irrational exuberance. New York: Broadway Books. ISBN: 0-7679-0718-3. Simon, H. A., 1955, A behavioral model of rational choice, Cowles Foundation Paper 98, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69, 99-118. Stiglitz, J. E.. (2003). The roaring nineties: a new history of the world’s most prosperous decade. New York: W. W. Norton & Company. ISBN: 0-393-05852-2 Suorwiecki, J. (2004). The wisdom of crowds. New York: Doubleday, Random House, Inc. ISBN: 0-385-50386-5. Thaler, R. H., 1988, Anomalies: the winner’s curse, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2(1), 191-202. Törngren, G., & H. Montgomery, 2004, Worse than chance? Performance and confidence among professionals and laypeople in the stock market, The Journal of Behavioral Finance, 5(3), 148-153. Weintraub, R. E., 1963, On speculative prices and random walks: a denial, The Journal of Finance, 18(1), 59-66. Zandi, M. (2009). Financial shock: a 360° look at the subprime mortgage implosion, and how to avoid the next financial crisis. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Pearson Education, Inc. ISBN: 978-013-714290-3.

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