Bollinger Bands

 

Bollinger Bands® Bollinger Bands were invented by John Bollinger. Used to confirm trading signals, normally from a  a Momentum Indicator , the bands indicate overbought and oversold levels relative to a moving average. average.  Bollinger Bands are calculated at a specified number of standard deviations above and below the average, causing them to widen when prices are volatile and contract when prices are moving average, stable. Bollinger originally used a 20 day  day simple moving average  average and set the bands at 2 standard deviations, suited to  to intermediate cycles. cycles. 

Trading Signals Signals   Example 1

Microsoft is charted with

20 day Bollinger Bollinger bands at 2 standard deviations.

Mouse over chart captions to display trading signals. Contracting bands warn that the market is about to trend: the bands first converge into a narrow neck, followed by a sharp price p rice movement. The first breakout is often a false move, preceding a strong trend in the opposite direction. A contracting range [C] is evident in June 1998: the bands

converge to a width of $2, followed by a breakout in July to a new high.

 

A move that starts at one band normally carries through to the other, in a ranging market. A move outside the band indicates that the trend is strong and likely to continue - unless price quickly reverses. Note the quick reversal [QR] in early August. A trend that hugs one band signals that the trend is strong and likely to continue. Wait for  divergence on a  divergence  a Momentum Indicator  to signal the end of a trend. t rend. Example 2

Microsoft Corporation: Change..  Change

20 day  day Bollinger bands bands  at 2 standard deviations and

10 day  day Rate of 

Mouse over chart captions to display trading signals. short  [S] - bearish divergence on ROC. 1.  Go Go  short 2.  Contracting Bollinger Bands [C] warn of increased volatility. This begins with a false fa lse rally (note the ROC  ROC triple divergence divergence)) followed by a sharp fall. 3.  Go long [L] - price hugs the lower band, followed by a bullish divergence on ROC. 4.  Go short [S] - price hugs the upper band, followed by a bearish divergence on o n ROC.

Setup   Setup The default settings for Bollinger bands are 2.0 standard deviations around a 20 day  day exponential moving average. average. Edit Indicator Settings  Settings to change the standard settings.

 

See  Indicator Panel  See Panel for directions on how to set up an indicator. Sharpening Your Trading Skills: Using Bollinger Bands

By Jim Wyckoff  Of Kitco News  News www.kitco.com www.kitco.com   The Bollinger Bands (B-Bands) technical study was created c reated by John Bollinger, the president of Bollinger Capital Management Inc., based in Manhattan Beach, California. Bollinger is well respected in the futures and equities industries. Traders generally use B-Bands to determine overbought overbou ght and oversold zones, to co confirm nfirm divergences between prices and other technical indicators, and to project price targets. The wider the B-bands on a chart, c hart, the greater the market volatility; the narrower the bands, the less market volatility. B-Bands are lines plotted on a chart at an interval around a moving average. They consist of  a moving average and two standard deviations charted as one line above and one line below the moving average. The line above is two standard deviations added to the moving average. The line below is two standard deviations subtracted from the moving average. Some traders use B-Bands in conjunction with another indicator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI). If the market price touches the upper B-band and the RSI does not confirm the upward move (i.e. there is divergence between the indicators), a sell signal is generated. If the indicator confirms the upward move, no sell signal is generated, and in fact, a buy signal may be indicated. If the price touches the lower B-band and the RSI does not confirm the downward move, a  buy signal is generated. If the indicator confirms the downward move, no buy signal is generated, and in fact, a sell signal may be indicated. Another strategy uses the Bollinger Bands without another indicator. In this approach, a chart top occurring above the upper band followed by a top below the upper band generates a sell signal. Likewise, a chart bottom occurring below b elow the lower band followed by b y a bottom above the lower band generates a buy signal. B-Bands also help determine overbought and oversold markets. When prices move closer to the upper band, the market is becoming overbought, and as the prices move closer to the lower band, the market is becoming oversold. o versold. Importantly, the market’s price momentum should also be taken into account. When a market enters an overbought or oversold area, it may become even more so before it reverses. You should always look for evidence of price weakening or strengthening before anticipating a market reversal.

Bollinger Bands can be applied to any type of chart, although this indicator works best with daily and weekly charts. When applied to a weekly chart, the Bands carry more significance

 

for long-term market changes. John Bollinger says periods of less than 10 days do not work  well for B-Bands. He says that the optimal op timal period is 20 or 21 days. Like most computer-generated technical indicators, I use B-Bands B -Bands as mostly an indicator of  overbought and oversold conditions, or for divergence--but not as a specific generator of   buy and sell signals for my trading opportunities. It's just one more "secondary" trading tool, as opposed to my "primary" trading tools that include inclu de chart patterns and trend lines and fundamental analysis.

Bollinger Bands Introduction Developed by John Bollinger, Bollinger Bands® are volatility bands placed above and below b elow a moving average. Volatility is based on the  the  standard deviation, deviation, which changes as volatility increases and decreases. The bands automatically automaticall y widen when volatility increases and narrow when volatility decreases. This dynamic nature of Bollinger Bands also means they can be used on different securities with the standard settings. For signals, Bollinger Bands can be used to identify M-Tops and W-Bottoms or to determine the strength of the trend. Signals derived from narrowing BandWidth are discussed in the  the  chart school article on BandWidth. BandWidth.    Note: Bollinger Bands® is a registered trademark of John Bollinger. Bollinger.

SharpCharts Calculation * Middle Band = 20-day simple moving average (SMA) * Upper Band = 20-day SMA + (20-day standard deviation of price x 2) * Lower Band = 20-day SMA - (20-day standard deviation of price x 2)

 

  example.   Click here for download this spreadsheet example.  a simple Bollinger Bands consist of a middle band with two outer bands. The middle band is a  moving average  average that is usually set at 20 periods. A simple moving average is used because the standard deviation formula also uses a simple moving average. av erage. The look-back period for the standard deviation is the same as for the simple moving average. The outer bands are usually set 2 standard deviations above and below the middle band.

 

  Settings can be adjusted to suit the characteristics of particular securities or trading styles. Bollinger recommends making small incremental adjustments to the standard deviation multiplier. Changing the number of periods for the moving mov ing average also affects the number of   periods used to calculate the standard deviation. Therefore, only small adjustments are required for the standard deviation multiplier. An increase in the moving average period would automatically increase the number of periods used to calculate the standard deviation and would also warrant an increase in the standard deviation multiplier. With a 20-day SMA and 20-day Standard Deviation, the standard deviation multiplier is set at 2. Bollinger suggests increasing the standard deviation multiplier to 2.1 for a 50-period SMA and decreasing the standard deviation multiplier to 1.9 for a 10-period SMA.

Signal: W-Bottoms W-Bottoms were part of Arthur Merrill's work that identified 16 patterns with a basic W shape. Bollinger uses these various W patterns with Bollinger Bands to identify W-Bottoms. W -Bottoms. A "WBottom" forms in a downtrend and involves two reaction lows. In particular, Bollinger looks for  W-Bottoms where the second low is lower than the first, but holds above the lower band. There are four steps to confirm a W-Bottom with Bollinger Bands. First, a reaction low forms. This low is usually, but not always, below the lower band. Second, there is a bounce towards the middle  band. Third, there is a new price low in the security. This low holds above the lower band. The ability to hold above the with lower band onmove the test less weakness the last break. decline. Fourth, the pattern is confirmed a strong o ff shows off the second low and a on resistance

 

  Chart 2 shows Nordstrom (JWN) with a W-Bottom in January-February 2010. First, the stock  formed a reaction low in January (black arrow) and broke below the lower band. Second, there was a bounce back above the middle band. Third, the stock moved below its January low and held above the lower band. Even though the 5-Feb spike low broke the lower band, Bollinger  Bands are calculated using closing prices so signals should also be based on closing prices. Fourth, the stock surged with expanding volume in late February and broke above the early February high. Chart 3 shows Sandisk Sand isk with a smaller W-Bottom in July-August 2009.

 

 

Signal: M-Tops M-Tops were also part of Arthur Merrill's work that identified 16 patterns with a basic M shape. Bollinger uses these various M patterns with Bollinger Bands to identify M Bottoms. According to Bollinger, tops are usually more complicated and drawn out than bottoms. Double tops, headand-shoulders patterns and diamonds represent evolving tops. In its most basic form, an M-Top is similar to a double d ouble top. However, the reaction highs aare re not always equal. The first high can be b e higher or lower than the second high. Bollinger suggests looking for signs of non-confirmation when a security is making new highs. This is basically the opposite of the W-Bottom. A non-confirmation occurs with three steps. First, a security forges a reaction high above the upper band. Second, there is a pullback towards the middle band. Third,  prices move above the prior high, but fail to reach the upper band. This is a warning sign. The inability of the second reaction high to reach the upper band shows waning momentum, which can foreshadow a trend reversal. Final confirmation con firmation comes with a support break or bearish indicator signal.

 

  Chart 4 shows Exxon Mobil (XOM) with an M-Top in April-May 2008. The stock moved above the upper band in April. There was a pullback in May and then another push above 90. Even though the stock moved above the upper band on an intraday basis, it did not CLOSE above the upper band. The M-Top was confirmed with a support break two weeks later. Also notice that MACD formed a bearish divergence and moved below its signal line for confirmation.

 

  Chart 5 shows Pulte Homes (PHM) within an uptrend in July-August 2008. Price exceeded the upper band in early September to affirm the uptrend. After a pullback below the 20-day SMA (middle Bollinger Band), the stock moved to a higher high above 17. Despite this new high for  the move, price did not exceed the upper band. This flashed a warning sign. The stock broke support a week later and MACD moved below its signal line. Notice that this M-top is more complex because there are lower reaction highs on either side of the peak (blue arrow). This evolving top formed a small head-and-shoulders pattern.

Signal: Walking the Bands Moves above or below the bands are not signals per se. As Bollinger puts it, moves that touch or  exceed the bands are not signals, but rather "tags". On the face of it, a move to the upper band shows strength, while a sharp move to the lower band shows weakness. Momentum oscillators work much the same way. wa y. Overbought is not necessarily bullish. It takes strength to reach overbought levels and overbought conditions co nditions can extend in a strong uptrend. Similarly, prices can "walk the band" with numerous touches during a strong uptrend. Think about it for a moment. The upper band is 2 standard deviations above the 20-period simple moving average. It takes a pretty strong price move to exceed this upper band. An upper band touch that occurs after  a Bollinger Band confirmed W-Bottom would signal the start of o f an uptrend. Just as a strong uptrend produces numerous upper band tags, it is also common for prices to n never ever reach the lower bandSMA duringsometimes an uptrend. The 20-day sometimes acts as support. dips below the 20-day provide bu yingSMA buying opportunities before thesuppo next rt. tagInoffact, the upper band.

 

  Chart 6 shows Air Products (APD) with a surge and a nd close above the upp upper er band in mid July. First, notice that this is a strong surge that broke above a bove two resistance levels. A strong upward thrust is a sign of strength, not weakness. Trading turned flat in August and the 20-day 20 -day SMA moved sideways. The Bollinger Bands narrowed, but APD did not close below the lower band. Prices, and the 20-day SMA, turned up in September. Overall, APD closed above the upper band at least five times over a four month period. The indicator window shows the 10 10-period -period Commodity Channel Index (CCI). Dips below -100 are deemed oversold and moves back above -100 signal the start of an oversold bounce (green dotted line). The upper band tag and breakout started the uptrend. CCI then identified tradable pullbacks p ullbacks with dips below -100. This is an example of combining Bollinger Bands with a momentum oscillator for trading signals.

 

  Chart 7 shows Monsanto (MON) with a walk down the lower band. The stock broke down in January with a support break and closed below the lower band. From mid January until early May, Monsanto closed below the lower band b and at least five times. Notice that the stock did not close above the upper band once during this period. The support break and initial close below the lower band signaled a downtrend. As such, the 10-period Commodity Channel Chann el Index (CCI) was used to identify short-term overbought situations. A move above +100 is overbought. A move  back below +100 signals a resumption of the downtrend (red arrows). This system triggered triggered two good signals in early 2010.

Conclusions Bollinger Bands reflect direction with the 20-period SMA and volatility with the upper/lower   bands. As such, they can be used to determine if prices are relatively high or low. According to Bollinger, the bands should contain 88-89% of price action, which makes a move outside the bands significant. Technically, prices are relatively high when above the upper band and relatively low when below the lower band. However, relatively high should not be regarded as  bearish or as a sell signal. Likewise, relatively low should not be considered bullish or as a buy signal. Prices are high or low for a reason. As with other indicators, Bollinger Bands are not meant to be used as a stand alone tool. Chartists should combine Bollinger Bands with basic trend analysis and other indicators for confirmation.

 

Bands and SharpCharts Bollinger Bands can be found in SharpCharts as a price overlay. As with a simple moving average, Bollinger Bands should be shown on top of a price plot. Upon selecting Bollinger  Bands, the default setting will appear in the parameters window (20,2). The first number (20) sets the periods for the simple moving average and the standard deviation. The second number  (2) sets the standard deviation multiplier for the upper and lower lowe r bands. These default parameters set the bands 2 standard deviations above/below the simple moving average. Users can change the parameters to suit their charting needs. Bollinger Bands (50,2.1) (50,2.1 ) can be used for a longer  timeframe or Bollinger Bands (10,1.9) can be used for a shorter timeframe. timeframe.  Click here  here for a live example.

Bollinger Bands

 

  Bollinger Bands are probably one of the most important indicators ever developed for measuring  price action volatility. You can use Bollinger Bands as a very accurate indicator within any time frame. The indicator has many uses and can provide the smart trader with some extremely  profitable entry and exit signals. There are a few variations on how to use Bollinger Bands depending on market conditions. The major 3 signals from Bollinger Bands are these:      

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The squeeze The expansion 2.0 STDV close

Of course these variations are often referred to by different titles and names but the overall concept is the same.

 

Bollinger Bands Measuring the Value of Over-sold or Over bought Securities As a volatility measure, Bollinger band limits basically indicate whether an individual stock is over bought or over-sold. However, they do not in and of themselves indicate a buy or ssell ell signal. Bollinger Bands are actually indicators as to the volatility of a particular security. As a result, for trading purposes, one would want to look lo ok at the activity of trading within the Ban Bands ds in conjunction with another tool, such as the Relative Strength Indicator, to properly undertake investment decisions. Historically, when a price movement has been identified originating at one of the Bollinger  limits, it will more likely than not continue at least to the th e opposite limit band. Bollinger Bands are in essence a graphic representation of o f the volatility that exists in the market for any particular  stock. As such, they allow the investor the possibility to identify periods where opportunities for  the undertaking of successful positions can arise. When used in conjunction with other o ther indicators, the knowledge and use of Bollinger Bands can greatly improve any individuals trading performance. Bollinger Bands and Trading

Bollinger Bands  Bands is without a doubt one of the greatest tools ever created to aid th thee astute trader  with his entries and exits. The reaction of an upper or lower band to approaching price provides the active trader with a tale tale sign of o f what will likely take place over the next few bars or  more. This reaction provides valuable insight into whether or not this will be just a ffew ew bars or  quite a few bars. Likewise the upper Bands “personality” during this time is also ver y telling.

 

In example A above notice how the lower band responds to price as it approaches. Look at example B as price approaches. Once continues a small trend while the other pierces and reverts to the mean. This reaction to approaching price is  just the beginning of what Bollinger Bands will tell you. If you know what to look for with from from  both the upper and lower band, you are able to identify incredibly accurate entries as well as some rather perfect exits. For complete information on this study use the form above to access the entire manual.

The Details Bollinger Bands  Bands provides  provides about 3-4 clear and precise entry signals. When you combine these Bollinger band signals with some solid price action techniques they can all develop into perfect entry triggers that will provide an unlimited supply of Bollinger band triggers. Additionally when you develop an eye for understanding how both Bollinger Bands work  together as a trade progresses you will discover a perfect tool for pinpointing perfect exits. As the Bands move and expand and contract they provide a clear visual of what price is up too. Its easier to see the constricting volatility and predict a possible expansion, ex pansion, and as well its much easier to see when price has made mad e a dramatic move and its likely over.

 

Combine this with simple support and resistance levels and you have the beginnings of a very  powerful trading system. Just keep in mind when trading Bollinger Bands that you want to watch both bands as they react to approaching price action, not just the band that price is approaching. In other words if price is approaching the upper band, make sure your looking at the upper and lower band to determine what might be taking place. This will literally literally double your accuracy with Bollinger Band trading.