China
Content
In the inevitable comparisons that economists and businesspeople make between Asia's two rising giants, China and India, China nearly always comes out on top. The Chinese economy historically outpaces India's by just about every measure. China's fastacting government implements new policies with blinding speed, making India's fractured political system appear sluggish and chaotic. Beijing's shiny new airport and wide freeways are models of modern development, contrasting sharply with the sagging infrastructure of New Delhi and Mumbai. And as the global economy emerges from the Great Recession, India once again seems to be playing second fiddle. Pundits around the world laud China's leadership for its well-devised economic policies during the crisis, which were so effective in restarting economic growth that they helped lift the entire Asian region out of the downturn. (Read "Amid Recovery, China's Property Market Soars.") Now, however, India may finally have one up on its high-octane rival. Though India still can't compete on top-line economic growth ² the World Bank projects India's gross domestic product (GDP) will increase 6.4% in 2009, far short of the 8.7% that China announced in mid-January ± India's economy looks to be rebounding from the downturn in better shape than China's. India doesn't appear to be facing the same degree of potential dangers and downside risks as China, which means policymakers in New Delhi might have a much easier task in maintaining the economy's momentum than their Chinese counterparts. "The way I see it is that the growth in India is much more sustainable" than the growth in China, says Jim Walker, an economist at Hong Kong±based research firm Asianomics. India's edge is due to the different stimulus programs adopted by the two countries to support growth during the downturn. China implemented what Walker calls "the biggest stimulus program in global history." On top of government outlays for new infrastructure and tax breaks, Beijing most significantly counted on massive credit growth to spur the economy. The amount of new loans made in 2009 nearly doubled from the year before to $1.4 trillion ± representing almost 30% of GDP. The stimulus plan worked wonders, holding up growth even as China's exports dropped 16% in 2009. But now China is facing the consequences of its largesse. Fears are rising that Beijing's easymoney policies have fueled a potential property-price bubble. According to government data, average real estate prices in Chinese cities jumped 7.8% in December from a year earlier ² the fastest increase in 18 months. The credit boom has also sparked worries about the nation's banking system. Many economists expect the large surge in credit to lead to a growing number of nonperforming loans (NPLs). In a November report, UBS economist Wang Tao calculates that if 20% of all new lending in 2009 and 10% of the amount in 2010 goes bad over the next three to five years, the total amount of NPLs from China's stimulus program would reach $400 billion, or roughly 8% of GDP. Though Wang notes that the total is small compared with the level of NPLs that Chinese banks carried in the past, she still calls the sum "staggering." Policymakers in Beijing are clearly concerned. Since December, they have introduced a series of steps to cool down the housing market and restrict access to credit by, for example, reintroducing taxes on certain property transactions and raising the required level of cash that banks have to keep on hand in an effort to reduce new lending. (Read "Foreign Luxury Cars: Picking Up Speed in India.")
India, meanwhile, isn't experiencing nearly the same degree of fallout from its recession-fighting methods. The government used the same tools as every other to support growth when the financial crisis hit ± cutting interest rates, offering tax breaks and increasing fiscal spending ± but the scale was smaller than in China. Goldman Sachs estimates that India's government stimulus will total $36 billion this fiscal year, or only 3% of GDP. By comparison, China's two-year, $585 billion package is roughly twice as large, at about 6% of GDP per year. Most important, India managed to achieve its substantial growth without putting its banking sector at risk. In fact, India's banks have remained quite conservative through the downturn, especially compared with Chinese lenders. Growth of credit, for example, was actually lower in 2009 than in 2008. As a result, economists see continued strength in India's banks. A January report by economicresearch outfit Centennial Asia Advisors noted that based on available data, "there was no sign that domestic banks' nonperforming assets were deteriorating materially." Nor do analysts harbor the same concerns that India's monetary policies are sending prices of Indian real estate to bubble levels. "India's growth, though less stellar, does have the reassuring factor that the [risks of] asset price bubbles are less," says Rajat Nag, managing director general of the Asian Development Bank in Manila. India maintained robust growth without Beijing's hefty stimulus in part because it is less exposed to the international economy. China's exports represented 35% of GDP compared with only 24% for India in 2008. Thus India was afforded more protection from the worst effects of the financial crisis in the West, while China's government needed to be much more active to replace lost exports to the U.S. More significantly, though, India's domestic economy provides greater cushion from external shocks than China's. Private domestic consumption accounts for 57% of GDP in India compared with only 35% in China. India's confident consumer didn't let the economy down. Passenger car sales in India in December jumped 40% from a year earlier. "What we see [in India] is a fundamental domestic demand story that doesn't stall in the time of a global downturn," says Asianomics' Walker. (See pictures of India's "slumdog" entrepreneurs.) The Indian economy is not immune to risks. The government has to contend with a yawning budget deficit, and last year's weak monsoon rains will likely undercut agricultural production and soften rural consumer spending. But rapid growth is expected to continue. The World Bank forecasts India's economy will surge 7.6% in 2010 and 8% in 2011, not far behind the 9% rate it predicts for China for each of those years. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, when speaking about his country's more plodding pace of economic policymaking, has said that "slow and steady will win the race." The Great Recession appears to have proved him right.
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1957281,00.html#ixzz0yha4I2BE
Is China a threat to Indian Software Industry?
In: Computer Software and Applications, Economics [Edit categories]
[Improve]
China's rapidly growing software industry will soon rival India's, not necessarily eclipsing it. Before the 1990s, China was technologically behind in numerous types of software due to the mentality Chinese investors had. They found software inferior to hardware. However, after the 1990s, when investors began realizing the importance and the potential market of software, large investments began flowing into the industry. Consequently, these seeds came into fruitation, giving birth to numerous prominent Chinese softwares such as Baidu (search engine) QQ (instant messenger), and Xunlei (download manager) that many know today. In spite of China's rapid technological growth in the software IT sector, it is still behind India. Furthermore, while China's offshore software industry is limited to Japan and South Korea due to language barriers, India's English proficiency allows it to market its software to and successfully outsource software companies from all English-speaking countries. A great challenge for China in the software industry is intellectual theft which may shorten corporation life expectancy, and lead to unsuccessful investments... while a great challenge for India is to improve engineer education so as to not render as much as 70% of graduates unproductive.
IAF Chief says China a greater threat than Pakistan Reuters Posted: May 24, 2009 at 1259 hrs IST Print Email To Editor Post Comments Font Size -A+A
Most Read Articles Related Articles School infrastructure redefined: Crass-rooms...Golmaal 3 expects big buzz with DabanggWoods 'hit by 18-week rehab sex ban'Oil, gas conservation fortnight starts in ci...Pranab give go ahead to 'one rank one pensio...Mafia spreading tentacles in town; 6 Ravi Pu...
New Delhi India faces a greater threat fromChina than Pakistan because New Delhiknows little about Beijing's combat capabilities, India's air force chief told a newspaper in an interview published on Sunday. The world's two most populous nations fought a brief but brutal war over their 3,500 km (2,200 mile) Himalayan border in 1962, and both sides claim the other is occupying big but largely uninhabited chunks of their territory. India has also been pursuing closer relations with the United States, something that worries China. China has a standing army almost three times the size of Pakistan's, according to official figures and defence industry estimates, but it is the lack of knowledge about China's military that concerned Air Chief Marshal Fali Homi Major. "We know very little about the actual capabilities of China, their combat edge or how professional their military is," Major told the Hindustan Times newspaper. "They are certainly a greater threat." India and Pakistan have fought three wars since independence in 1947 and tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbours rose sharply after last November's Mumbai attack, which killed 166 people. A slow-moving peace process was paused after the attack. Islamabad has acknowledged that the attack was launched from and partly planned in Pakistan, but rejected New Delhi's accusations that the gunmen had support from official Pakistani agencies. Although India and China have signed a treaty to maintain "peace and tranquility" along their disputed frontier and agreed to find a political solution to the row, talks have hardly made progress even as their business ties boom. India blames the lack of progress on China's claim over ArunachalPradesh, in particular over its Buddhist enclave of Tawang. New Delhi says it cannot part with populated areas to settle the border dispute. Major said the Indian air force was upgrading about five airbases, of which two would operate Russian Su-30 MKI fighters.
Its development in the IT sector is an ³opportunity´ for Indian firms
Infosys founder N.R. Narayana Murthy said here on Tuesday that India should perceive China's rapid development in the information technology sector as an ³opportunity´ for Indian IT companies functioning in that country, rather than as a µthreat.' Mr. Murthy, along with Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, inaugurated the State's first cyber police station at the police headquarters here. Asked whether China's speedy progress in the IT field could pose a threat to India's favourable global position, Mr. Murthy said: ³China has shown development in extraordinary proportions in different sectors. It will also make progress in the IT sector. Almost all Indian IT companies have a presence in China now. But we are not looking at China as a threat but as an opportunity.´
Asked about Infosys' investment plans in the State, he said that given the vast talent pool in West Bengal, the company would take the decision ³at an appropriate time.´ Speaking at the inaugural function, Mr. Bhattacharjee said that even with just 26,000 personnel, the city police maintained a ³low crime rate and communal harmony´ in comparison to forces with larger strength. ³But we are not complacent and realise the need to upgrade our resources and technology regularly. Quality of investigation also needs to be improved,´ he added. Mr. Murthy said the cyber police station would initiate a new era of µe-policing' in the city and suggested that officials be open-minded in learning the tricks of the trade from police forces already running such stations. Police Commissioner Gautam Mohan Chakrabarti said Mr. Murthy has invited a group of city police personnel to the Infosys headquarters at Mysore for training. ³A batch of about 10 police officers would leave for Mysore next month for the training. We have also requested Mr. Murthy for building up a long-term consultancy relationship between Infosys and Kolkata police for expert advice and support on e-police governance,´ Mr. Chakrabarti said. Keywords: Infosys founder N.R. Narayana Murthy, India, China, IT sector
s China a threat or an opportunity?
As with many sectors in Indian industry, the Indian software industry too is worried over the threat from China. Yet in software and hardware, India might have an opportunity that more than makes up for any threat, say Srikanth R P andRajneesh De For 40 years now, since border skirmishes erupted just after some emotional posturing in 1962, Indians and Chinese have viewed each other with mutual suspicion. Over the years, although the two gigantic countries have settled some differences, they still seem to warily circle each other. In recent times, Indian industry on the receiving end of dirt-cheap Chinese imports has been at the forefront of a µSave Us from China¶ campaign.
And now even the czars of the Indian software industry are acknowledging that China poses a serious threat to India¶s ambition of becoming an IT superpower. That Nasscom is finalising a white paper on the implications of the Chinese foray into software exports shows the general alarm that has set in. There¶s no doubt about China¶s competitiveness in the IT sector, considering its hardware and telecom markets are much bigger than India¶s. And even in software, China has a huge captive domestic market, as compared to India¶s relatively tiny domestic market. There are some other alarming figures for India: the ratio of China¶s IT spend to its GDP is nearly 5 times that of India¶s. If India¶s current growth rate in IT doubles, it would still take us 25 years to catch up with China, and that only if China¶s growth rate remains stagnant. Frankly, these numbers do seem to put a huge question mark over India¶s much talked of aim of becoming an IT superpower. Large domestic market But, rather than throwing in the towel, there is a school of thought developing in India which believes that the Indian IT industry can convert D-Link¶s Naik has this apparent Chinese threat into an opportunity. Nasscom president Kiran evolved a formula Karnik is one of the main votaries of this opinion. He believes that while whereby the Indian China will always remain a formidable competitor, a policy of engagement IT industry will have its cake and rather than a policy of isolated approach would perhaps be a better eat it too strategy. First, it would give Indian companies a door to enter the Chinese domestic market which is today dominated by MNCs. Plus, Indian IT companies based in China can address other East Asian markets like Japan and Korea. This view is also endorsed by Noshir Kaka, principal, McKinsey & Co. It is a well established fact today that Indian IT firms have an excellent opportunity waiting to be tapped in the Chinese domestic market, which is estimated to be four times the size of India¶s. Also, with China becoming a part of the WTO, local banks in China will soon be forced to start upgrading their technology. As local players have not been able to provide the required expertise and technology in the domestic IT market, the Chinese market is currently dominated by MNCs. This in itself offers an excellent opportunity for Indian IT firms, whose development expertise is no way inferior to these MNCs. Another important aspect is the growing purchasing power of the China¶s 1.3 billion people which in turn is creating a strong massive base to build domestic technology companies. China is also expected to be the largest market in the world by 2004 for mobile phones and digital cameras, and the second largest for PCs after the US. A key reason why India is miles ahead of China in software exports is due to the simple fact that the efforts of Chinese software firms were spent in addressing the huge domestic market (estimated to be worth $16.2 billion). But things are about to change, as China wants to emulate India¶s success in the software sector and become a major global force. China has initiated a series of measures, which include plans to set up specialist IT training institutions on the lines of our IITs and Chinese firms are following the same strategy India¶s IT majors did (bagging projects based on price) before going on to become software majors.
Yet, there is a bigger opportunity for Indian IT players in China. One, according to Infosys chairman N R Narayana Murthy, is that Chinese firms cannot meet the full demand from the Chinese domestic IT industry, resulting in the government allowing foreign firms like Microsoft, Oracle and IBM to operate through joint ventures. In addition, Kaka feels that Indian IT firms can take advantage of the fact that China offers Indian IT firms lower trade barriers, lower taxes and excellent infrastructure. No wonder Infosys is on the threshold of setting up facilities in Shanghai to tap the Chinese domestic market. Window to Japan
Infosys¶ Murthybelieves China is an opportunity since its IT industry cannot even provide for domestic needs
The second premise for looking at China as an opportunity is that it can provide Indian companies a gateway to Japan, a market hitherto virtually untouched. This logic is significant as currently, Japan is the world¶s second largest economy-estimated to be worth a gigantic 70 percent of the entire Asian market and which contributes approximately 11 percent to the total outsourcing global market. There is obviously a huge gap to be filled as only four percent of India¶s software exports go to Japan. A significant gainer in the Japanese market is China, which has been a favoured partner for Japan¶s software imports. The synergy is easy to fathom. One, Japanese is the second language taught in the northeastern parts of China, where most Chinese companies are located. Also, most Chinese programmers are familiar with the double byte system used to generate Chinese and Japanese characters. Location wise also, China offers a great advantage to Japanese companies looking to outsource their projects. Due to these synergies, it comes as no surprise therefore that Japan continues to be China¶s largest trading partner. Though Indian IT firms have established bases in Japan (the list includes the likes of Wipro, Infosys and TCS and L&T Information Technology), it remains a tough market to crack. The reason primarily being that Japanese companies have traditionally resisted external help relating to their IT systems. But a gradual change is happening. The Japanese economy, which is in the throes of recession, is slowly but surely catching on the outsourcing mantra in a big way. According to industry estimates, spending on IT outsourcing is likely to exceed $15 billion in 2005. These figures are roughly one third of the market size in the US. Since China is a natural trading partner for Japan, it makes more sense for Indian companies to set up base in China by following a strategy of partnerships with local players who have knowledge and expertise about local markets. Since the Japanese culture is not as open as US culture, tapping the Japanese market will undoubtedly require a lot of patience. But as experts say, once bonds are established they stay for a long time. Hence, it makes even more sense for Indian companies to tie up with Chinese players as China has been a long-time preferred trading partner for Japan. Also, India¶s edge over China could come from the fact that it has a good record in quality and protection of intellectual property rights. Global software majors are wary of outsourcing their projects to Chinese companies as China has a terrible record in software piracy. And on the quality front, as of December 2001, India had 36 companies at the SEI CMM Level 5 assessment out of 58 organisations worldwide, while China had none. It is thus a win-win situation for both Indian and Chinese companies as organisations who were earlier wary about Chinese firms but wanted to avail of the cultural and locational synergies,
can now do so in the case of a Indo-Chinese tie-up. The hardware angle Even the hardware sector could gain from China¶s traditional strengths in this segment. K R Naik, managing director of D-link India proposes that Indian companies should set up hardware manufacturing facilities with technology know-how from companies both in mainland China as well as Taiwan. Most of the very few manufacturing facilities in India today deal merely in assembling, and unless they replicate the Chinese model of hardware development, the MAIT-E&Y estimate of $62 billion by 2010 in hardware will only remain a pipe dream. Naik¶s formula for success: Form a JV with a Chinese hardware major, procure the technology expertise, the R&D set up and then do actual manufacturing in India. ³You can even supply to the Chinese market, as our labour force is not only cheaper but much more intelligent,´ he adds. The key part of the strategy for Indian IT firms is to forge partnerships with Chinese firms and participate in the country¶s explosive growth. Some Indian companies have already done this. NIIT, for instance, has seen huge demand for its courses due to its unique English and Mandarin courses. As Kaka says, ³Going forward, Indian software companies can outsource their work to Chinese companies to boost productivity, while maintaining a strategic relationship with the client.´ Indian software companies have an exponential opportunity to be tapped in the field of telecom software. Currently, major telecom players in China like Zhongxing and Huawei export their telecommunications equipment to India, while Indian IT firms develop the requisite software for them. That¶s a great example of combining China¶s strengths in hardware manufacturing with India¶s strengths in software. With Infosys receiving the green signal to set up a branch in China and Satyam too likely to jump into the fray, the future seems bright for Indian IT companies in China. While it is in the best interests of Indian IT companies to view China as a formidable competitor, the opportunities far outweigh the threats. Perhaps the question should be rephrased from, µIs China as a threat?¶ to µIs China as a land of opportunities?¶ For India Inc¶s sake, we sure hope it is.
Amid China trouble, India, Japan to firm up economic pact
y y
Story Comments
Topics »manmohan singh|japan|india|china
NEW DELHI: Amid dissonance in relations with China, India is looking to expand strategic and economic ties with Japan as the two sides hold the final round of negotiations next week to finalise a key economic pact ahead of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Tokyo in October. Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar is expected to travel to Tokyo Tuesday to hold a final round of negotiations on a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) with Japan, well-placed sources told IANS. The pact, called Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) in Japan, is expected to slash tariff duties on around 9,000 products, ranging from steel and apparel to drugs and machinery, and give a big boost to bilateral trade which was estimated to be around $11 billion in 2008-09.
The two sides are keen to clinch the pact well in time before Manmohan Singh travels to Tokyo for the annual summit with his Japanese counterpart Naoto Kan, likely Oct 25-27. Manmohan Singh's visit to Tokyo will be keenly watched in Beijing that sees both a rising India and Japan, which it overtook as the world's second largest economy recently,as rivals and competitors in the Asian hemisphere. Beijing has taken note of the recent launch of negotiations for a bilateral nuclear pact between India and Japan, a breakthrough of sorts given Tokyo's past aversion to doing nuclear business with any country outside the fold of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Significantly, the China threat perception figured in discussions between External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna and his Japanese counterpart Katsuya Okada a fortnight ago. The Japanese side spoke of its unease about the opaqueness of China's military spending and stressed the need for transparency during discussions, top sources said. India shared
this
sense
of
unease,
the
sources
added.
The recent Chinese aggressiveness on issues critical to India's sovereignty like the denial of visa to a senior Indian Army officer on grounds that his command included Jammu and Kashmir has revived the spectre of the China threat in India. The reports of the presence of 11,000 Chinese troops in Pakistan-administered Kashmir has further fuelled anxiety in New Delhi, which has already conveyed concerns to Beijing over the issue. The incident has also prompted India to pursue a more robust Look East policy to position itself as a democratic alternative to China in the East Asian region, which will hold the regional summit in Hanoi October-end. Against this backdrop, although Indian officials maintain India's relations with Japan are independent of its ties with China, New Delhi and Tokyo have been quietly giving a strategic orientation to their relationship. Two months ago, India and Japan held two back-to-back separate dialogues that discussed a wide array of issues, including counter-terrorism, jointly combating piracy and UN reforms, to give more heft to their strategic partnership. With an eye on Beijing's growing clout in Africa, the Japanese foreign minister sought India's cooperation in starting talks with African countries to push forward UN Security Council reforms when he visited India last month.
While India sleeps, Chinese threat grows
May 26, 2008 18:50 IST
Share this
Ask Users
Write a Comment
New Delhi's [ Images ] portrayal of the humiliating defeat at the hands of Chinese in 1962 as 'betrayal' and 'surprise'
is untrue. The pacifist Indian leadership that was crying hoarse from rooftops for friendship at any cost remained blind to Communist China's repeated claims on Tibet [ Images ] and large part of Indian territories. Mao termed Tibet as the palm of a hand with its five fingers as Ladakh, Sikkim, Nepal, Bhutan, and North East Frontier Agency. He claimed that these were Chinese territories that needed to be 'liberated'. Tibet was 'liberated' by force while New Delhi slept.
The historical characteristics of the Chinese and the statements issued by the Communists from time to time clearly exposed their expansionist ambitions in Asia that spelt out a direct threat to India's [ Images ] well being. Despite such overt indications, if we could not prepare ourselves to meet those challenges, the fault lies with us. Instead of pretending to be surprised or betrayed, it is time we face the truth for the fiasco in 1962 and prepare our military for the serious threat posed by the Chinese. To Mao and the Chinese what singularly mattered was achieving the final goal. The means whether fair or foul to win were irrelevant. If New Delhi had deciphered what Mao was advocating in 1946 and studied the historical Chinese characteristics, alarm bells should have clearly rung in the South Block. Mao repeatedly said from 1950 onwards that Taiwan, Tibet, and Hainan Islands were Chinese territories and they will be re-possessed. The predominant trait in this claim is the Chinese attraction for acquiring new territories. On the take over of China by the Communists, maps depicting large parts of Korea, Indo-China, Mongolia, Burma, Malaysia, Eastern Turkestan, India, Tibet, Nepal, Sikkim, and Bhutan as Chinese territories were produced. Despite such demands, New Delhi always overlooked the basic fact that Communists inherited both, the traditional Chinese expansionism as well as imperialism. Tibet and China that were part of Mongolian Empire at one point in history now became part of the Chinese Empire under Mao, in reverse order. Strangely, from this it follows that since Tawang or Sikkim which have been closely related to Tibet in the past, needed to be 'liberated' and made part of the new Chinese empire. If the leadership of independent India had bothered to study and understand the British mantle that was inherited, Chinese aims would become crystal clear -- Mao the great strategist, always announced his goals publicly and never wavered. Further Mao often quoted a famous Chinese saying, " If the east wind does not prevail over the west wind, then east wind will prevail over the east wind." This clearly indicates another trait of the Han Chinese of their obsession to dominate other nations in their vicinity. If Nepal in history paid tribute ever as a vassal state to the Chinese Emperor, than whenever the regime in Beijing [ Images ] was powerful, it would ensure Nepal accepts its orbit of influence. With Maoists taking over Nepal, the designs of the Communists in China have succeeded and pacifists in New Delhi stand compromised on our geo-political interests. While Indians were bending backwards to force their friendship in the last 58 years, China was busy consolidating its hold on Tibet and other occupied territories. It extended its influence in Asia through economic and military power, unprecedented development of logistic infrastructure and demographic invasion. By 1987 it poured in 75 million Han Chinese into Manchuria, 7 million in Eastern Turkestan (Xinjiang), 8.5 million into Inner Mongolia, and 7.5 million into
Tibet. Similarly it bolstered itself against India militarily by building roads up to the borders in Tibet and connecting its Sinkiang province by cutting a road through Indian Territory Aksai Chin. Yet we were not alarmed as a nation and continue to swim in the euphoria of five principals of Indo-Chinese friendship termed Panchsheel! Historically Indian and Chinese influences in Asia have coexisted. However, possibly for the first time in history, India and China were rising almost simultaneously. This produced two contenders for the leadership of Asia. On the chessboard, while Nehru took the initiative to lead Asia -- without developing military sinews and powerful international alliances -- through The Asian Relations Conference in 1947 and a second Conference on Indonesia in 1949, a year later, Mao's army executed the liberation of Tibet in one masterstroke. Mao, thus demonstrated to the world that China was the actual leader of Asia and India merely a paper tiger, good for holding conferences but incapable of defending a small country in its vicinity. He also understood strategic importance of Tibet, which provided the base in the Himalayas, from where a large part of Asia could be engulfed in its sphere of influence. Despite the invasion of Tibet, New Delhi did not understand the significance of the Chinese Communists growing up as a military organisation, unlike other movements. Their core competency lay in the Peoples Liberation Army and military virtues were promoted throughout the cadres. If China today dares to claim Arunachal Pradesh and piece of Sikkim, it is primarily based on its military prowess. On the other hand, the fine Indian military machine built by the British continues to be degraded and demoralised by the Indian civil leadership on. Traditionally Chinese leadership leans on teachings of Master Sun Tzu. Mao in particular was highly influenced by Sun Tzu, who said, " To fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting." Therefore, a willing proxy was found in Pakistan. For the first time in history, nuclear weapons and missile technology were transferred to countervail and further boost its hatred against India. Of course, we all know how preoccupied Pakistan has kept our national security managers and resources, while Chinese developed a free run in Asia. Similarly Maoists in Nepal supported clandestinely by the Chinese are in cahoots with the Indian Maoists who now control 40 percent of India's territory. If you think that's not smart enough for warriors of Sun Tzu, than take a look at the borders from north to east --Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar are under the spell of Beijing, shrinking India's influence in its vicinity without recourse to war. It's a matter of time before the Chinese upstage Bhutan and Sri Lanka [ Images ] due to our inaptitude. China, over a period of time, has cleverly managed to deploy two authoritarian streams of threats against India to break its will and the territorial integrity. Foremost is the Communist threat that originates from Beijing and the second is the Islamic fundamentalist threat from its proxies. Besides other threats like Nepal Maoists or getting the Indo-US Nuclear deal blocked by their comrades in India. it's like axing the branch one sits
Today for China to threaten Arunachal Pradesh and demand a slice of Sikkim after assured of its vice-like grip on India, is a natural progression even as New Delhi continues its slumber. In 1999 the Dalai Lama [ Images ] in hindsight admitted, " When Tibet was free, we took our freedom for granted In
former times Tibetans were a war-like nation whose influence spread far and wide. With the advent of Buddhism our military prowess declined " The Dalai Lama could easily have said the same for India. Pacifist philosophies may be good for the individual's soul but are definitely bad for nation's security.
Is China a threat to India?
Indo-China
For 40 years now, since border skirmishes erupted just after some emotional posturing in 1962, Indians and Chinese have viewed each other with mutual suspicion. As two rising Asian powers with high GDP growths and increasing geo-political influence, India and China have been arch rivals in their race to superpowerdom .Chinese intrusions on the Indian territory have been increasing day by day but India seems powerless to stop them. The reality is that China wants to expand itself geo-politically in South Asia. The Chinese have a saying called µteaching a lesson¶ and as far as they are concerned, 1962 was not about grabbing territory but it was about teaching India a lesson. China was supplying nuclear weapons technology to Pakistan, equipping Pakistan¶s air force with 150 front range aircraft showed that, China obviously has a policy of containment of India. Let us look back at history. The pacifist Indian leadership that was crying hoarse from rooftops for friendship at any cost, remained blind to Communist China¶s repeated claims on Tibet and large part of Indian territories. Mao termed Tibet as the palm of a hand with its five fingers as Ladakh, Sikkim, Nepal, Bhutan, and North East Frontier Agency. He claimed that these were Chinese territories that needed to be µliberated¶. Tibet was µliberated¶ by force while New Delhi slept.
I can say that we are making the same mistake which Jawaharlal Nehru made ± pretending a problem does not exist when it does. India should come out of the self containment notion and should really make a strategic effort to match up China in defense capabilities. Military Threat: If we compare the present military strength of China to that of India, China outnumbers India in all forms of military capabilities. 1. According to USA Dept. of Defense report, China¶s military expenditure is estimated to be 80 billion US dollars, which is second only to USA in global military spending, where as India spends not more than 22 billion US dollars, which stands at 9th position in global military spending. 2. In 2006 India¶s active military personnel numbered over 1.3 million while China was significantly higher at 2,255,000. 3. In air defense, China¶s PLA (People¶s Liberation Army) Air Force has 9,218 aircrafts of which about 2300 are combat aircrafts, operating from its 489+ air base which is double that of India. 4. In the same line, PLA navy outnumbers Indian Navy not only in terms of vessels but also in terms of aircraft carriers. 5. In strategic nuclear defense and delivery systems, China¶s PLA is miles ahead of India¶s nuclear forces. The PLA¶s stockpile is estimated to have 200-400 active nuclear warheads which is around 5 times that of India. 6. China¶s nuclear delivery system is far more capable with multiple warheads (MIRV), ICBMs like DF-5A [12000+ km] and DF-4 [7500+ km]. It also fields submarine launched SLBMs like JL-2 [8500+ km] and strategic fighter bombers like Su-27 Flanker in its nuclear delivery arsenal, which is far ahead of India. Economic Threat: As with many sectors in Indian industry, Indian software industry too is worried over the threat from China. Comparing the Indian economy with the Chinese economy has become almost a pastime for many analysts. A majority of these economic analysts have come to the conclusion that, as of the year 2003, China is well ahead of India as if A Tiger, Falling Behind a Dragon´. China¶s growth rates are much higher than that of India¶s. There¶s no doubt about China¶s competitiveness in the IT sector, considering its hardware and telecom markets which are much bigger than India¶s. And even in software, China has a huge captive domestic market, as compared to India¶s relatively tiny domestic market. There are some other alarming figures for India: the ratio of China¶s IT spends to its GDP is nearly 5 times that of India¶s. Some facts and figures regarding different dimensions of china¶s economy are given below. 1. The GDP of China is around $7.916 trillion, second to USA where the GDP of India is estimated as $1.209 trillion which makes it the twelfth-largest economy in the world. 2. China is the world¶s third largest trading power behind the US and Germany with a total international trade of US$2.56 trillion ± US$1.43 trillion in exports and US$1.13 trillion in imports. Its foreign exchange reserves have reached US$2.1 trillion, making it the world¶s largest. 3. On contrary, according to the World Trade Statistics of the WTO in 2006, India¶s total merchandise trade (counting exports and imports) was valued at $294 billion in 2006 and India¶s services trade inclusive of export and import was $143 billion. By end
4.
5. 6. 7.
2008, foreign exchange reserve of India reached 261 billion, putting India at 5th position in the world. China¶s per capita income is around $6000 ranked 69th in the world where as India¶s per capita income (nominal) is $1016, ranked 142th in the world, while its per capita (PPP) of US$2,762 is ranked 129th. China has about $1 trillion in personal savings and a savings rate of close to 50% where as India¶s savings rate is about 26%. In China, People living under below poverty line is around 10 percent where as in India, its around 22 percent by end 2008. Where China is enjoying the annual growth rate of double digit figure, India is still striving to knock that double digit figure.
If we look at the above mentioned comparisons of economic strength, its really alarming for India. Though India is emerging as a global economic power, still it has to go a long way to match with that of China. China is indeed a market leader in manufacturing many low-end products at low cost. Low cost Chinese goods such as dolls, electonic goods are flooding in Indian markets and are really posing a threat for survival of Indian industries. In all international forums, be it UNO, IMF or World Bank, where ever possible, China is exploiting all possible opportunities to create hurdles for India. It has been helping Pakistan in all possible ways to mount pressure on India from the west. China is also promoting insurgency and helping the militant orginisations in all possible ways in the north-east states. China has taken special measures to expand and improve its infrastructure which is the backbone of all the industrial growth, where India is yet to walk many miles. At present state, India can never match to China in many areas, such as international influence, overall national power and economic scale. India apparently has not yet realized this.´ To cater the imminent threat, keeping in view the rapid infrastructure development across the border and frequent violation of LOAC, India has started deployment of more troops and combat aircraft near the border in Arunachal Pradesh. India is developing the IAF base at Tezpur, which is just 150 kilometers from the border, into a major hub for Sukhoi aircraft. The IAF also proposes to station more Sukhois in the nearby Chabua Air Force base and plans are afoot to upgrade infrastructure at five air force bases in the eastern part of the country including Tezpur, Chabua and Jorhat in Assam, Panagarh in West Bengal and Purnea in Bihar from across the border. Let us see, where we stand to China and how to bridge the gap.
India, meanwhile, isn't experiencing nearly the same degree of fallout from its recession-fighting methods. The government used the same tools as every other to support growth when the financial crisis hit ± cutting interest rates, offering tax breaks and increasing fiscal spending ± but the scale was smaller than in China. Goldman Sachs estimates that India's government stimulus will total $36 billion this fiscal year, or only 3% of GDP. By comparison, China's two-year, $585 billion package is roughly twice as large, at about 6% of GDP per year. Most important, India managed to achieve its substantial growth without putting its banking sector at risk. In fact, India's banks have remained quite conservative through the downturn, especially compared with Chinese lenders. Growth of credit, for example, was actually lower in 2009 than in 2008. As a result, economists see continued strength in India's banks. A January report by economicresearch outfit Centennial Asia Advisors noted that based on available data, "there was no sign that domestic banks' nonperforming assets were deteriorating materially." Nor do analysts harbor the same concerns that India's monetary policies are sending prices of Indian real estate to bubble levels. "India's growth, though less stellar, does have the reassuring factor that the [risks of] asset price bubbles are less," says Rajat Nag, managing director general of the Asian Development Bank in Manila. India maintained robust growth without Beijing's hefty stimulus in part because it is less exposed to the international economy. China's exports represented 35% of GDP compared with only 24% for India in 2008. Thus India was afforded more protection from the worst effects of the financial crisis in the West, while China's government needed to be much more active to replace lost exports to the U.S. More significantly, though, India's domestic economy provides greater cushion from external shocks than China's. Private domestic consumption accounts for 57% of GDP in India compared with only 35% in China. India's confident consumer didn't let the economy down. Passenger car sales in India in December jumped 40% from a year earlier. "What we see [in India] is a fundamental domestic demand story that doesn't stall in the time of a global downturn," says Asianomics' Walker. (See pictures of India's "slumdog" entrepreneurs.) The Indian economy is not immune to risks. The government has to contend with a yawning budget deficit, and last year's weak monsoon rains will likely undercut agricultural production and soften rural consumer spending. But rapid growth is expected to continue. The World Bank forecasts India's economy will surge 7.6% in 2010 and 8% in 2011, not far behind the 9% rate it predicts for China for each of those years. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, when speaking about his country's more plodding pace of economic policymaking, has said that "slow and steady will win the race." The Great Recession appears to have proved him right.
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1957281,00.html#ixzz0yha4I2BE
Is China a threat to Indian Software Industry?
In: Computer Software and Applications, Economics [Edit categories]
[Improve]
China's rapidly growing software industry will soon rival India's, not necessarily eclipsing it. Before the 1990s, China was technologically behind in numerous types of software due to the mentality Chinese investors had. They found software inferior to hardware. However, after the 1990s, when investors began realizing the importance and the potential market of software, large investments began flowing into the industry. Consequently, these seeds came into fruitation, giving birth to numerous prominent Chinese softwares such as Baidu (search engine) QQ (instant messenger), and Xunlei (download manager) that many know today. In spite of China's rapid technological growth in the software IT sector, it is still behind India. Furthermore, while China's offshore software industry is limited to Japan and South Korea due to language barriers, India's English proficiency allows it to market its software to and successfully outsource software companies from all English-speaking countries. A great challenge for China in the software industry is intellectual theft which may shorten corporation life expectancy, and lead to unsuccessful investments... while a great challenge for India is to improve engineer education so as to not render as much as 70% of graduates unproductive.
IAF Chief says China a greater threat than Pakistan Reuters Posted: May 24, 2009 at 1259 hrs IST Print Email To Editor Post Comments Font Size -A+A
Most Read Articles Related Articles School infrastructure redefined: Crass-rooms...Golmaal 3 expects big buzz with DabanggWoods 'hit by 18-week rehab sex ban'Oil, gas conservation fortnight starts in ci...Pranab give go ahead to 'one rank one pensio...Mafia spreading tentacles in town; 6 Ravi Pu...
New Delhi India faces a greater threat fromChina than Pakistan because New Delhiknows little about Beijing's combat capabilities, India's air force chief told a newspaper in an interview published on Sunday. The world's two most populous nations fought a brief but brutal war over their 3,500 km (2,200 mile) Himalayan border in 1962, and both sides claim the other is occupying big but largely uninhabited chunks of their territory. India has also been pursuing closer relations with the United States, something that worries China. China has a standing army almost three times the size of Pakistan's, according to official figures and defence industry estimates, but it is the lack of knowledge about China's military that concerned Air Chief Marshal Fali Homi Major. "We know very little about the actual capabilities of China, their combat edge or how professional their military is," Major told the Hindustan Times newspaper. "They are certainly a greater threat." India and Pakistan have fought three wars since independence in 1947 and tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbours rose sharply after last November's Mumbai attack, which killed 166 people. A slow-moving peace process was paused after the attack. Islamabad has acknowledged that the attack was launched from and partly planned in Pakistan, but rejected New Delhi's accusations that the gunmen had support from official Pakistani agencies. Although India and China have signed a treaty to maintain "peace and tranquility" along their disputed frontier and agreed to find a political solution to the row, talks have hardly made progress even as their business ties boom. India blames the lack of progress on China's claim over ArunachalPradesh, in particular over its Buddhist enclave of Tawang. New Delhi says it cannot part with populated areas to settle the border dispute. Major said the Indian air force was upgrading about five airbases, of which two would operate Russian Su-30 MKI fighters.
Its development in the IT sector is an ³opportunity´ for Indian firms
Infosys founder N.R. Narayana Murthy said here on Tuesday that India should perceive China's rapid development in the information technology sector as an ³opportunity´ for Indian IT companies functioning in that country, rather than as a µthreat.' Mr. Murthy, along with Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, inaugurated the State's first cyber police station at the police headquarters here. Asked whether China's speedy progress in the IT field could pose a threat to India's favourable global position, Mr. Murthy said: ³China has shown development in extraordinary proportions in different sectors. It will also make progress in the IT sector. Almost all Indian IT companies have a presence in China now. But we are not looking at China as a threat but as an opportunity.´
Asked about Infosys' investment plans in the State, he said that given the vast talent pool in West Bengal, the company would take the decision ³at an appropriate time.´ Speaking at the inaugural function, Mr. Bhattacharjee said that even with just 26,000 personnel, the city police maintained a ³low crime rate and communal harmony´ in comparison to forces with larger strength. ³But we are not complacent and realise the need to upgrade our resources and technology regularly. Quality of investigation also needs to be improved,´ he added. Mr. Murthy said the cyber police station would initiate a new era of µe-policing' in the city and suggested that officials be open-minded in learning the tricks of the trade from police forces already running such stations. Police Commissioner Gautam Mohan Chakrabarti said Mr. Murthy has invited a group of city police personnel to the Infosys headquarters at Mysore for training. ³A batch of about 10 police officers would leave for Mysore next month for the training. We have also requested Mr. Murthy for building up a long-term consultancy relationship between Infosys and Kolkata police for expert advice and support on e-police governance,´ Mr. Chakrabarti said. Keywords: Infosys founder N.R. Narayana Murthy, India, China, IT sector
s China a threat or an opportunity?
As with many sectors in Indian industry, the Indian software industry too is worried over the threat from China. Yet in software and hardware, India might have an opportunity that more than makes up for any threat, say Srikanth R P andRajneesh De For 40 years now, since border skirmishes erupted just after some emotional posturing in 1962, Indians and Chinese have viewed each other with mutual suspicion. Over the years, although the two gigantic countries have settled some differences, they still seem to warily circle each other. In recent times, Indian industry on the receiving end of dirt-cheap Chinese imports has been at the forefront of a µSave Us from China¶ campaign.
And now even the czars of the Indian software industry are acknowledging that China poses a serious threat to India¶s ambition of becoming an IT superpower. That Nasscom is finalising a white paper on the implications of the Chinese foray into software exports shows the general alarm that has set in. There¶s no doubt about China¶s competitiveness in the IT sector, considering its hardware and telecom markets are much bigger than India¶s. And even in software, China has a huge captive domestic market, as compared to India¶s relatively tiny domestic market. There are some other alarming figures for India: the ratio of China¶s IT spend to its GDP is nearly 5 times that of India¶s. If India¶s current growth rate in IT doubles, it would still take us 25 years to catch up with China, and that only if China¶s growth rate remains stagnant. Frankly, these numbers do seem to put a huge question mark over India¶s much talked of aim of becoming an IT superpower. Large domestic market But, rather than throwing in the towel, there is a school of thought developing in India which believes that the Indian IT industry can convert D-Link¶s Naik has this apparent Chinese threat into an opportunity. Nasscom president Kiran evolved a formula Karnik is one of the main votaries of this opinion. He believes that while whereby the Indian China will always remain a formidable competitor, a policy of engagement IT industry will have its cake and rather than a policy of isolated approach would perhaps be a better eat it too strategy. First, it would give Indian companies a door to enter the Chinese domestic market which is today dominated by MNCs. Plus, Indian IT companies based in China can address other East Asian markets like Japan and Korea. This view is also endorsed by Noshir Kaka, principal, McKinsey & Co. It is a well established fact today that Indian IT firms have an excellent opportunity waiting to be tapped in the Chinese domestic market, which is estimated to be four times the size of India¶s. Also, with China becoming a part of the WTO, local banks in China will soon be forced to start upgrading their technology. As local players have not been able to provide the required expertise and technology in the domestic IT market, the Chinese market is currently dominated by MNCs. This in itself offers an excellent opportunity for Indian IT firms, whose development expertise is no way inferior to these MNCs. Another important aspect is the growing purchasing power of the China¶s 1.3 billion people which in turn is creating a strong massive base to build domestic technology companies. China is also expected to be the largest market in the world by 2004 for mobile phones and digital cameras, and the second largest for PCs after the US. A key reason why India is miles ahead of China in software exports is due to the simple fact that the efforts of Chinese software firms were spent in addressing the huge domestic market (estimated to be worth $16.2 billion). But things are about to change, as China wants to emulate India¶s success in the software sector and become a major global force. China has initiated a series of measures, which include plans to set up specialist IT training institutions on the lines of our IITs and Chinese firms are following the same strategy India¶s IT majors did (bagging projects based on price) before going on to become software majors.
Yet, there is a bigger opportunity for Indian IT players in China. One, according to Infosys chairman N R Narayana Murthy, is that Chinese firms cannot meet the full demand from the Chinese domestic IT industry, resulting in the government allowing foreign firms like Microsoft, Oracle and IBM to operate through joint ventures. In addition, Kaka feels that Indian IT firms can take advantage of the fact that China offers Indian IT firms lower trade barriers, lower taxes and excellent infrastructure. No wonder Infosys is on the threshold of setting up facilities in Shanghai to tap the Chinese domestic market. Window to Japan
Infosys¶ Murthybelieves China is an opportunity since its IT industry cannot even provide for domestic needs
The second premise for looking at China as an opportunity is that it can provide Indian companies a gateway to Japan, a market hitherto virtually untouched. This logic is significant as currently, Japan is the world¶s second largest economy-estimated to be worth a gigantic 70 percent of the entire Asian market and which contributes approximately 11 percent to the total outsourcing global market. There is obviously a huge gap to be filled as only four percent of India¶s software exports go to Japan. A significant gainer in the Japanese market is China, which has been a favoured partner for Japan¶s software imports. The synergy is easy to fathom. One, Japanese is the second language taught in the northeastern parts of China, where most Chinese companies are located. Also, most Chinese programmers are familiar with the double byte system used to generate Chinese and Japanese characters. Location wise also, China offers a great advantage to Japanese companies looking to outsource their projects. Due to these synergies, it comes as no surprise therefore that Japan continues to be China¶s largest trading partner. Though Indian IT firms have established bases in Japan (the list includes the likes of Wipro, Infosys and TCS and L&T Information Technology), it remains a tough market to crack. The reason primarily being that Japanese companies have traditionally resisted external help relating to their IT systems. But a gradual change is happening. The Japanese economy, which is in the throes of recession, is slowly but surely catching on the outsourcing mantra in a big way. According to industry estimates, spending on IT outsourcing is likely to exceed $15 billion in 2005. These figures are roughly one third of the market size in the US. Since China is a natural trading partner for Japan, it makes more sense for Indian companies to set up base in China by following a strategy of partnerships with local players who have knowledge and expertise about local markets. Since the Japanese culture is not as open as US culture, tapping the Japanese market will undoubtedly require a lot of patience. But as experts say, once bonds are established they stay for a long time. Hence, it makes even more sense for Indian companies to tie up with Chinese players as China has been a long-time preferred trading partner for Japan. Also, India¶s edge over China could come from the fact that it has a good record in quality and protection of intellectual property rights. Global software majors are wary of outsourcing their projects to Chinese companies as China has a terrible record in software piracy. And on the quality front, as of December 2001, India had 36 companies at the SEI CMM Level 5 assessment out of 58 organisations worldwide, while China had none. It is thus a win-win situation for both Indian and Chinese companies as organisations who were earlier wary about Chinese firms but wanted to avail of the cultural and locational synergies,
can now do so in the case of a Indo-Chinese tie-up. The hardware angle Even the hardware sector could gain from China¶s traditional strengths in this segment. K R Naik, managing director of D-link India proposes that Indian companies should set up hardware manufacturing facilities with technology know-how from companies both in mainland China as well as Taiwan. Most of the very few manufacturing facilities in India today deal merely in assembling, and unless they replicate the Chinese model of hardware development, the MAIT-E&Y estimate of $62 billion by 2010 in hardware will only remain a pipe dream. Naik¶s formula for success: Form a JV with a Chinese hardware major, procure the technology expertise, the R&D set up and then do actual manufacturing in India. ³You can even supply to the Chinese market, as our labour force is not only cheaper but much more intelligent,´ he adds. The key part of the strategy for Indian IT firms is to forge partnerships with Chinese firms and participate in the country¶s explosive growth. Some Indian companies have already done this. NIIT, for instance, has seen huge demand for its courses due to its unique English and Mandarin courses. As Kaka says, ³Going forward, Indian software companies can outsource their work to Chinese companies to boost productivity, while maintaining a strategic relationship with the client.´ Indian software companies have an exponential opportunity to be tapped in the field of telecom software. Currently, major telecom players in China like Zhongxing and Huawei export their telecommunications equipment to India, while Indian IT firms develop the requisite software for them. That¶s a great example of combining China¶s strengths in hardware manufacturing with India¶s strengths in software. With Infosys receiving the green signal to set up a branch in China and Satyam too likely to jump into the fray, the future seems bright for Indian IT companies in China. While it is in the best interests of Indian IT companies to view China as a formidable competitor, the opportunities far outweigh the threats. Perhaps the question should be rephrased from, µIs China as a threat?¶ to µIs China as a land of opportunities?¶ For India Inc¶s sake, we sure hope it is.
Amid China trouble, India, Japan to firm up economic pact
y y
Story Comments
Topics »manmohan singh|japan|india|china
NEW DELHI: Amid dissonance in relations with China, India is looking to expand strategic and economic ties with Japan as the two sides hold the final round of negotiations next week to finalise a key economic pact ahead of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to Tokyo in October. Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar is expected to travel to Tokyo Tuesday to hold a final round of negotiations on a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) with Japan, well-placed sources told IANS. The pact, called Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) in Japan, is expected to slash tariff duties on around 9,000 products, ranging from steel and apparel to drugs and machinery, and give a big boost to bilateral trade which was estimated to be around $11 billion in 2008-09.
The two sides are keen to clinch the pact well in time before Manmohan Singh travels to Tokyo for the annual summit with his Japanese counterpart Naoto Kan, likely Oct 25-27. Manmohan Singh's visit to Tokyo will be keenly watched in Beijing that sees both a rising India and Japan, which it overtook as the world's second largest economy recently,as rivals and competitors in the Asian hemisphere. Beijing has taken note of the recent launch of negotiations for a bilateral nuclear pact between India and Japan, a breakthrough of sorts given Tokyo's past aversion to doing nuclear business with any country outside the fold of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Significantly, the China threat perception figured in discussions between External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna and his Japanese counterpart Katsuya Okada a fortnight ago. The Japanese side spoke of its unease about the opaqueness of China's military spending and stressed the need for transparency during discussions, top sources said. India shared
this
sense
of
unease,
the
sources
added.
The recent Chinese aggressiveness on issues critical to India's sovereignty like the denial of visa to a senior Indian Army officer on grounds that his command included Jammu and Kashmir has revived the spectre of the China threat in India. The reports of the presence of 11,000 Chinese troops in Pakistan-administered Kashmir has further fuelled anxiety in New Delhi, which has already conveyed concerns to Beijing over the issue. The incident has also prompted India to pursue a more robust Look East policy to position itself as a democratic alternative to China in the East Asian region, which will hold the regional summit in Hanoi October-end. Against this backdrop, although Indian officials maintain India's relations with Japan are independent of its ties with China, New Delhi and Tokyo have been quietly giving a strategic orientation to their relationship. Two months ago, India and Japan held two back-to-back separate dialogues that discussed a wide array of issues, including counter-terrorism, jointly combating piracy and UN reforms, to give more heft to their strategic partnership. With an eye on Beijing's growing clout in Africa, the Japanese foreign minister sought India's cooperation in starting talks with African countries to push forward UN Security Council reforms when he visited India last month.
While India sleeps, Chinese threat grows
May 26, 2008 18:50 IST
Share this
Ask Users
Write a Comment
New Delhi's [ Images ] portrayal of the humiliating defeat at the hands of Chinese in 1962 as 'betrayal' and 'surprise'
is untrue. The pacifist Indian leadership that was crying hoarse from rooftops for friendship at any cost remained blind to Communist China's repeated claims on Tibet [ Images ] and large part of Indian territories. Mao termed Tibet as the palm of a hand with its five fingers as Ladakh, Sikkim, Nepal, Bhutan, and North East Frontier Agency. He claimed that these were Chinese territories that needed to be 'liberated'. Tibet was 'liberated' by force while New Delhi slept.
The historical characteristics of the Chinese and the statements issued by the Communists from time to time clearly exposed their expansionist ambitions in Asia that spelt out a direct threat to India's [ Images ] well being. Despite such overt indications, if we could not prepare ourselves to meet those challenges, the fault lies with us. Instead of pretending to be surprised or betrayed, it is time we face the truth for the fiasco in 1962 and prepare our military for the serious threat posed by the Chinese. To Mao and the Chinese what singularly mattered was achieving the final goal. The means whether fair or foul to win were irrelevant. If New Delhi had deciphered what Mao was advocating in 1946 and studied the historical Chinese characteristics, alarm bells should have clearly rung in the South Block. Mao repeatedly said from 1950 onwards that Taiwan, Tibet, and Hainan Islands were Chinese territories and they will be re-possessed. The predominant trait in this claim is the Chinese attraction for acquiring new territories. On the take over of China by the Communists, maps depicting large parts of Korea, Indo-China, Mongolia, Burma, Malaysia, Eastern Turkestan, India, Tibet, Nepal, Sikkim, and Bhutan as Chinese territories were produced. Despite such demands, New Delhi always overlooked the basic fact that Communists inherited both, the traditional Chinese expansionism as well as imperialism. Tibet and China that were part of Mongolian Empire at one point in history now became part of the Chinese Empire under Mao, in reverse order. Strangely, from this it follows that since Tawang or Sikkim which have been closely related to Tibet in the past, needed to be 'liberated' and made part of the new Chinese empire. If the leadership of independent India had bothered to study and understand the British mantle that was inherited, Chinese aims would become crystal clear -- Mao the great strategist, always announced his goals publicly and never wavered. Further Mao often quoted a famous Chinese saying, " If the east wind does not prevail over the west wind, then east wind will prevail over the east wind." This clearly indicates another trait of the Han Chinese of their obsession to dominate other nations in their vicinity. If Nepal in history paid tribute ever as a vassal state to the Chinese Emperor, than whenever the regime in Beijing [ Images ] was powerful, it would ensure Nepal accepts its orbit of influence. With Maoists taking over Nepal, the designs of the Communists in China have succeeded and pacifists in New Delhi stand compromised on our geo-political interests. While Indians were bending backwards to force their friendship in the last 58 years, China was busy consolidating its hold on Tibet and other occupied territories. It extended its influence in Asia through economic and military power, unprecedented development of logistic infrastructure and demographic invasion. By 1987 it poured in 75 million Han Chinese into Manchuria, 7 million in Eastern Turkestan (Xinjiang), 8.5 million into Inner Mongolia, and 7.5 million into
Tibet. Similarly it bolstered itself against India militarily by building roads up to the borders in Tibet and connecting its Sinkiang province by cutting a road through Indian Territory Aksai Chin. Yet we were not alarmed as a nation and continue to swim in the euphoria of five principals of Indo-Chinese friendship termed Panchsheel! Historically Indian and Chinese influences in Asia have coexisted. However, possibly for the first time in history, India and China were rising almost simultaneously. This produced two contenders for the leadership of Asia. On the chessboard, while Nehru took the initiative to lead Asia -- without developing military sinews and powerful international alliances -- through The Asian Relations Conference in 1947 and a second Conference on Indonesia in 1949, a year later, Mao's army executed the liberation of Tibet in one masterstroke. Mao, thus demonstrated to the world that China was the actual leader of Asia and India merely a paper tiger, good for holding conferences but incapable of defending a small country in its vicinity. He also understood strategic importance of Tibet, which provided the base in the Himalayas, from where a large part of Asia could be engulfed in its sphere of influence. Despite the invasion of Tibet, New Delhi did not understand the significance of the Chinese Communists growing up as a military organisation, unlike other movements. Their core competency lay in the Peoples Liberation Army and military virtues were promoted throughout the cadres. If China today dares to claim Arunachal Pradesh and piece of Sikkim, it is primarily based on its military prowess. On the other hand, the fine Indian military machine built by the British continues to be degraded and demoralised by the Indian civil leadership on. Traditionally Chinese leadership leans on teachings of Master Sun Tzu. Mao in particular was highly influenced by Sun Tzu, who said, " To fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting." Therefore, a willing proxy was found in Pakistan. For the first time in history, nuclear weapons and missile technology were transferred to countervail and further boost its hatred against India. Of course, we all know how preoccupied Pakistan has kept our national security managers and resources, while Chinese developed a free run in Asia. Similarly Maoists in Nepal supported clandestinely by the Chinese are in cahoots with the Indian Maoists who now control 40 percent of India's territory. If you think that's not smart enough for warriors of Sun Tzu, than take a look at the borders from north to east --Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar are under the spell of Beijing, shrinking India's influence in its vicinity without recourse to war. It's a matter of time before the Chinese upstage Bhutan and Sri Lanka [ Images ] due to our inaptitude. China, over a period of time, has cleverly managed to deploy two authoritarian streams of threats against India to break its will and the territorial integrity. Foremost is the Communist threat that originates from Beijing and the second is the Islamic fundamentalist threat from its proxies. Besides other threats like Nepal Maoists or getting the Indo-US Nuclear deal blocked by their comrades in India. it's like axing the branch one sits
Today for China to threaten Arunachal Pradesh and demand a slice of Sikkim after assured of its vice-like grip on India, is a natural progression even as New Delhi continues its slumber. In 1999 the Dalai Lama [ Images ] in hindsight admitted, " When Tibet was free, we took our freedom for granted In
former times Tibetans were a war-like nation whose influence spread far and wide. With the advent of Buddhism our military prowess declined " The Dalai Lama could easily have said the same for India. Pacifist philosophies may be good for the individual's soul but are definitely bad for nation's security.
Is China a threat to India?
Indo-China
For 40 years now, since border skirmishes erupted just after some emotional posturing in 1962, Indians and Chinese have viewed each other with mutual suspicion. As two rising Asian powers with high GDP growths and increasing geo-political influence, India and China have been arch rivals in their race to superpowerdom .Chinese intrusions on the Indian territory have been increasing day by day but India seems powerless to stop them. The reality is that China wants to expand itself geo-politically in South Asia. The Chinese have a saying called µteaching a lesson¶ and as far as they are concerned, 1962 was not about grabbing territory but it was about teaching India a lesson. China was supplying nuclear weapons technology to Pakistan, equipping Pakistan¶s air force with 150 front range aircraft showed that, China obviously has a policy of containment of India. Let us look back at history. The pacifist Indian leadership that was crying hoarse from rooftops for friendship at any cost, remained blind to Communist China¶s repeated claims on Tibet and large part of Indian territories. Mao termed Tibet as the palm of a hand with its five fingers as Ladakh, Sikkim, Nepal, Bhutan, and North East Frontier Agency. He claimed that these were Chinese territories that needed to be µliberated¶. Tibet was µliberated¶ by force while New Delhi slept.
I can say that we are making the same mistake which Jawaharlal Nehru made ± pretending a problem does not exist when it does. India should come out of the self containment notion and should really make a strategic effort to match up China in defense capabilities. Military Threat: If we compare the present military strength of China to that of India, China outnumbers India in all forms of military capabilities. 1. According to USA Dept. of Defense report, China¶s military expenditure is estimated to be 80 billion US dollars, which is second only to USA in global military spending, where as India spends not more than 22 billion US dollars, which stands at 9th position in global military spending. 2. In 2006 India¶s active military personnel numbered over 1.3 million while China was significantly higher at 2,255,000. 3. In air defense, China¶s PLA (People¶s Liberation Army) Air Force has 9,218 aircrafts of which about 2300 are combat aircrafts, operating from its 489+ air base which is double that of India. 4. In the same line, PLA navy outnumbers Indian Navy not only in terms of vessels but also in terms of aircraft carriers. 5. In strategic nuclear defense and delivery systems, China¶s PLA is miles ahead of India¶s nuclear forces. The PLA¶s stockpile is estimated to have 200-400 active nuclear warheads which is around 5 times that of India. 6. China¶s nuclear delivery system is far more capable with multiple warheads (MIRV), ICBMs like DF-5A [12000+ km] and DF-4 [7500+ km]. It also fields submarine launched SLBMs like JL-2 [8500+ km] and strategic fighter bombers like Su-27 Flanker in its nuclear delivery arsenal, which is far ahead of India. Economic Threat: As with many sectors in Indian industry, Indian software industry too is worried over the threat from China. Comparing the Indian economy with the Chinese economy has become almost a pastime for many analysts. A majority of these economic analysts have come to the conclusion that, as of the year 2003, China is well ahead of India as if A Tiger, Falling Behind a Dragon´. China¶s growth rates are much higher than that of India¶s. There¶s no doubt about China¶s competitiveness in the IT sector, considering its hardware and telecom markets which are much bigger than India¶s. And even in software, China has a huge captive domestic market, as compared to India¶s relatively tiny domestic market. There are some other alarming figures for India: the ratio of China¶s IT spends to its GDP is nearly 5 times that of India¶s. Some facts and figures regarding different dimensions of china¶s economy are given below. 1. The GDP of China is around $7.916 trillion, second to USA where the GDP of India is estimated as $1.209 trillion which makes it the twelfth-largest economy in the world. 2. China is the world¶s third largest trading power behind the US and Germany with a total international trade of US$2.56 trillion ± US$1.43 trillion in exports and US$1.13 trillion in imports. Its foreign exchange reserves have reached US$2.1 trillion, making it the world¶s largest. 3. On contrary, according to the World Trade Statistics of the WTO in 2006, India¶s total merchandise trade (counting exports and imports) was valued at $294 billion in 2006 and India¶s services trade inclusive of export and import was $143 billion. By end
4.
5. 6. 7.
2008, foreign exchange reserve of India reached 261 billion, putting India at 5th position in the world. China¶s per capita income is around $6000 ranked 69th in the world where as India¶s per capita income (nominal) is $1016, ranked 142th in the world, while its per capita (PPP) of US$2,762 is ranked 129th. China has about $1 trillion in personal savings and a savings rate of close to 50% where as India¶s savings rate is about 26%. In China, People living under below poverty line is around 10 percent where as in India, its around 22 percent by end 2008. Where China is enjoying the annual growth rate of double digit figure, India is still striving to knock that double digit figure.
If we look at the above mentioned comparisons of economic strength, its really alarming for India. Though India is emerging as a global economic power, still it has to go a long way to match with that of China. China is indeed a market leader in manufacturing many low-end products at low cost. Low cost Chinese goods such as dolls, electonic goods are flooding in Indian markets and are really posing a threat for survival of Indian industries. In all international forums, be it UNO, IMF or World Bank, where ever possible, China is exploiting all possible opportunities to create hurdles for India. It has been helping Pakistan in all possible ways to mount pressure on India from the west. China is also promoting insurgency and helping the militant orginisations in all possible ways in the north-east states. China has taken special measures to expand and improve its infrastructure which is the backbone of all the industrial growth, where India is yet to walk many miles. At present state, India can never match to China in many areas, such as international influence, overall national power and economic scale. India apparently has not yet realized this.´ To cater the imminent threat, keeping in view the rapid infrastructure development across the border and frequent violation of LOAC, India has started deployment of more troops and combat aircraft near the border in Arunachal Pradesh. India is developing the IAF base at Tezpur, which is just 150 kilometers from the border, into a major hub for Sukhoi aircraft. The IAF also proposes to station more Sukhois in the nearby Chabua Air Force base and plans are afoot to upgrade infrastructure at five air force bases in the eastern part of the country including Tezpur, Chabua and Jorhat in Assam, Panagarh in West Bengal and Purnea in Bihar from across the border. Let us see, where we stand to China and how to bridge the gap.
