Emerging Technologies
Content
Technology Trends and Predictions: What Will the Future Bring to Our Lives?
Technology Trends and Predictions: What Will the Future Bring to Our Lives?
Maria H. Penedo
TRW Systems, Tactical Systems Division
We are living in exciting times; our world is changing ever more rapidly. Do you remember, how most people gathered information 20 or 30 years ago about a topic, wrote and disseminated documents, or coordinated groups of people? Information technology has transformed the way we live and work, and science and technology are evolving rapidly bringing unexpected and exciting changes. Biotechnology and nanotechnology are also evolving, and together with information technology, will have a profound effect on the economy and on the way we live and work. This paper provides a glimpse of what the future may bring as a result of these innovations by giving examples of current and emerging technologies, and including futuristic trends and predictions by market evaluators and leading scientists.
Introduction
The goal of accurately predicting the future begins with the past. The following old computing predictions that were provided by key people in the technical community exemplify the difficulty of predicting the future: • “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” (Thomas Watson, Chair IBM, 1943.) • “I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.” (Prentice-Hall editor of business books, 1957.) • “But what is a microchip good for?” (IBM engineer, 1968.) • “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” (Ken Olson, president and founder of the Digital Equipment Corporation [DEC].) These predictions are so far from our reality, that we find it difficult to believe them. On the other hand, predictions can enlighten us to the possibilities and challenges of the future, while keeping us abreast of technology evolution, which is valuable in today’s fastpaced and technology-oriented world. Information technology is continually transforming the way we live, and science and technology are evolving at such a pace that younger generations will have difficulty imagining what it was like before the computing revolution. Pervasive computing—the spread of digital information throughout society—is also introducing many changes. Nanotechnology (technology performed on a nanometer scale, one billionth of a meter, or three to five atoms across) is leading the way to great inventions and possibilities, such as the evolution of robots and the possibility of having nanobots scan the human brain. At the March 2001 ACM1 Beyond Cyberspace Conference [1], it was predicted that by 2012 we may be able to afford humanoid robots; and that by 2028, computers may become smarter than people.
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What are the implications of these predictions? Dean Kamen [2] cautions us about future predictions, stating that first-order effects are typically intended and predictable, but second-order effects are unintended and usually unpredictable (good or bad). Also, he points out that previously, unintended effects had time to be recognized and corrected, but with the accelerating pace of change, negative side effects could be larger and occur more quickly. For example, it took about 100 years to resolve many problems with the automobile; less time to figure out the consequences with pesticides; and soon we may be facing real problems related to human cell research. Thus, sometimes, predicting the future is not as useful as preparing for the unknown. This paper describes technologies affecting today’s world; discusses emerging technologies that may change the world; covers futuristic trends; and includes technology predictions for the next 50 years.
Current Promising Technologies
Some promising technologies that are affecting our world today are described below (in alphabetical order). Many of these technologies may or may not survive because of unrealistic projections, market pressure, or user acceptance. Gartner Research Notes is a commentary published yearly about the hype cycle of emerging technologies (Linden et al. [3,4]), some of which appear in this section. Their hype cycle indicates—from their perspectives—technologies climbing toward the peak of inflated expectations; others falling as a result of inflated expectations; and still others entering the plateau of productivity when their real-world benefits are demonstrated and accepted; Figure 1 illustrates their latest projections.
Figure 1. 2002 hype cycle of emerging technologies and trends [Source: Gartner Research]
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Agents. The term agent was originated with John McCarthy in the mid-1950s. Together with O. Selfridge, he coined the term, having a view of a “system that, when given a goal, could carry out the details of the appropriate computer operations and could ask for and receive advice, offered in human terms, when it was stuck.” Software agents [5-9], like human agents, are supposed to act on behalf of people to help in specific areas of expertise. There is a hope that agents will enable companies, projects, and businesses to automate a new set of tasks that currently require human action, allowing people to be more efficient and responsive to the demands of the information age. Types of agents include • Personal or Interface Agents. Help and collaborate with the user at the user interface, providing assistance by monitoring the user’s actions in the interface, learning and suggesting better ways of doing the task at hand. • Information Agents. Help manage the growth of online information; for example, “Distribute this draft of the document to the rest of the group and advise me when all have finished reviewing.” • Notifiers. Typically monitor information and alert you with e-mail when changes occur or some rule is broken. • Mobile agents. Used to reduce network load, encapsulating protocols and working asynchronously and autonomously, being able to move among machines and work in different environments. Agent technology is claimed to be one of the most vibrant and fastest growing areas of information technology. Application domains such as network management, air traffic control, business reengineering, data mining, information retrieval/management, electronic commerce, digital libraries, and command and control can benefit significantly from this technology. Even though some feel that the results are not meeting the expectations, others [9] believe that independent of the current successes or failures of agent research, the kinds of issues raised point toward exciting developments in the new millennium. Bluetooth. Bluetooth is a technology that allows devices (laptops, cell telephones, handheld computers, printers, and fax machines) to communicate wirelessly with one another via 2.4 GHz radio signals. For example, in meetings or conferences one can transfer selected documents instantly with selected participants and exchange electronic business cards automatically, without wired connections or wireless local area networks (LANs). Another example is the capability to automatically update your desktop with data, address list, and calendar from your personal digital assistant (PDA), as soon as you enter your office. By 2005, about 670 million devices are expected to be Bluetooth-enabled. Gartner expects more than 30 million chipsets to be shipped and chip prices to break the $5 barrier by the end of 2002. Some security and interoperability issues still remain, including interference with other communications technology [4]. Digital Signatures and Public Key Infrastructure (PKI). Digital signatures are to electronic messages what handwritten signatures are to printed correspondence, but virtually impossible to forge (unique per message and sender). A signature algorithm is applied to the message together with the sender’s key generating a signature to accompany the message; the recipient uses a verification key to confirm the origin of the message and that it has not been tampered with while in transit. A PKI is a collection of servers and software that enables an enterprise to distribute and manage thousands of unique cryptographic keys.
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Gartner comments that this technology is ready for deployment and that it has begun to increasingly become a feature of applications, rather than remaining an end product. An example of the design and implementation of a secure, remote PKI system is discussed in more detail in a separate article in this issue of the Technology Review Journal (Freeman et al., “Design and Implementation of Secure, Remote PKI Key Management System”). Molecular Computers. The drive to make computers faster and to produce smaller devices is pushing technology to a new form of electronics in which specially designed, individual molecules replace the transistors of today’s circuits. In a series of demonstrations, chemists, physicists, and engineers have shown that individual molecules can conduct and switch electric current and store information. Such devices will need far less power than current computers and may be able to hold vast amounts of data permanently. In July 2000, researchers from Hewlett-Packard and the University of California, Los Angeles, announced they had built an electronic switch consisting of a layer of several million molecules of an organic substance called rotaxane. This new molecular “logic gate” grows in a crystalline structure and absorbs information in the form of an electrical charge. This technology can potentially harness the computational power of 100 workstations on the size of a grain of sand and perform about 100 billion times better than a current Pentium chip in terms of energy required to do a calculation. Some researchers believe that the migration to molecular computers could occur within the next decade [10]. Robots. Robots have progressed to being toys, and the next step will be widespread use as tools. Some of these tools are already available in the commercial market: a robotic lawnmower is being sold in Israel; a robot that can clean floors has been designed; and an iRobot for remote presence is equipped with voice and a camera so one can talk to his/her children while on travel. Robots such as unmanned ground vehicles are currently being used within the military, for space exploration and in competitions. Research work is evolving into new applications, as exemplified by the University of Southern California’s Information Science Institute’s (ISI’s) CONRO project [11] and the RoboCup [12]. For example: • The CONRO project has the goal of providing the warfighter with a miniature reconfigurable robot that can be tasked to perform reconnaissance, search, and identification tasks in urban, seashore, and other field environments. CONRO, illustrated in Figure 2, will be made from identical miniature modules that can be programmed to alter its topology in order to respond to environmental challenges or obstacles. The base topology is simply connected, as in a snake, but the system can reconfigure itself to grow a set of legs or other specialized appendages. Each module will consist of a central processing unit, some memory, a battery, and a micromotor, plus a variety of other sensors and functionality, including vision and wireless connection and docking sensors. Major challenges include packaging, power, and cooling, as well as the major issue of programming and program control. • RoboCup is an international research and education initiative. Its goal is to foster artificial intelligence and robotics research by providing a standard problem where a wide range of technologies can be examined and integrated. The concept of soccerplaying robots was first introduced in 1993. Teams are composed of a group of robots and their objective is to score goals. The robots are permitted to communicate via wireless transceivers to each other or to a global decision-making computer; a global vision system may be used for global robot and ball position determination.
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Figure 2. The USC/ISI CONRO project (http://www.isi.edu/conro)
Competitions have been held internationally, and the last one was held in Japan, coinciding with the “2002 Soccer World Cup Korea/Japan.” Today, more than 3000 researchers from 35 countries and regions are participating in various projects such as international games, conferences, research, and educational programs. Their ultimate goal is to develop a team of fully autonomous humanoid robots that can win against the human world soccer champions by the year 2050. Semantic Web. Today’s Web content is mostly designed for human beings to read. The Semantic Web [3, 13,14] is an extension of the current Web in which information is given well-defined semantics, thus enabling computers to manipulate the data meaningfully. The goal is to provide a language that expresses both data and rules for reasoning about the data, and to provide the means to use rules to make inferences, choose courses of action, and answer questions. Key existing technologies toward this goal are • eXtensible Markup Language (XML). XML allows users to add structure to their documents. • Resource Description Framework (RDF). RDF allows expressing meaning as webs of information about related things. • Ontologies. Collections of information in the various domains that typically include a taxonomy and a set of inference rules. It is believed that the real power of the Semantic Web will be realized when people create programs (e.g., software agents) that collect Web content from diverse sources, process the information, and exchange the results with other programs. Putting these features together will allow the following request from a woman to her “personal software agent,” when her daughter was hurt playing soccer: “Look up an orthopedist who specializes in children’s sport injuries and is on her employer’s list of medical providers, works in a 10mile radius of the Windward school, and has published works in knee injuries.” The goal is to have a “value chain” where information is passed from agent to agent, each adding value, to construct a final product requested by the end user.
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Synthetic Characters (Sometimes Called Avatars). Avatars appear in many places on the Web today. These electronic characters converse with users in natural language, typically to train, act as a tour guide, or access online information. There are many types of synthetic characters. Examples being investigated at USC’s ISI [15] are Steve [16], depicted in Figure 3a, and Adele [17]. Steve is an autonomous pedagogical agent that provides training in virtual environments, both in individual and team settings; Adele is a Web-based pedagogical agent being applied to medical education that provides instruction in the context of case-based learning modules. Another application is digital stand-ins by lifeFX [18]—virtual people that can answer questions, present product demonstrations, or transmit e-mail. They are synthesized digitally from two-dimensional photographs molded onto moving digital skull models. The software allows you to type in text and familiar emotions such as smile, sadness, or a kiss. The different types of stand-ins will speak the messages, using text-to-speech voices; their latest version enables you to send messages with your voice using your current email program. Still another example of a virtual character is Ramona (depicted in Figure 3b), R. Kurzweil’s real-time avatar, who serves as a tour guide of the KurzweilAI.net Web site [19]; users can converse with Ramona in natural language. Also, with special equipment and properly wired, Ramona can pick up words and body motions from Kurzweil. Wearable Computers. Advances in wearable and mobile computing offer new possibilities to increase efficiency, reduce costs, and save lives. Xybernaut [20] sells a product line of wearable PC, hands-free systems that includes a body-worn, voice-activated, powerful processor and a video graphics array color flat panel or head-mounted color display with microphone and eyepiece, through which the user sees a video display. An example application is the Urban Jungle Pack prototype, designed for mobile online journalism, which provides video/audio/data feeds on a head-mounted device, allowing reporters to retrieve information from the office and provide live feeds into the Internet. R. Merritt [21] states that a growing group of researchers is coalescing about the idea that the future of mobile computing may have less to do with small PCs and more to do with something they call “smart yarn.” The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) recently released a request for proposals that aims to bring together people and
a. Steve (copyright © USC/ISI)
Figure 3. Synthetic characters
b. Ramona (copyright © KurzweilAI.net)
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technologies in the textile and electronics industries to produce the tools, processes, and fundamental technology needed to build a new class of wearable systems made of fabric. Examples are parachutes that generate solar power or track satellite signals. DARPA also plans to bring about development of new kinds of yarns, fabric interconnects, and computer-aided design (CAD) tools for weaving into textiles the equivalent of a printed-circuit board. These systems will include sensors, actuators, photovoltaic devices, batteries, and storage. Also, both the medical and military fields are using wireless biomonitoring for patients, soldiers, and athletes. Advances in wearable and mobile computing offer a wide spectrum of new possibilities to increase efficiency, reduce costs, and save lives. Wireless field. The wireless field is growing in four areas: • Cellular networks that are moving slowly toward third-generation, i.e., Universal Mobile Telecon System standard • Wireless LANs for indoor access to the Internet • Personal-area networks, the most promising area for wire replacement • Satellite communications that have a good market today for remote areas (very small aperture satellite terminals for TV broadcast and for Internet access) In the future, both low-elevation orbiting and geosynchronous-elevation orbiting satellites will serve the mobile user—in the car, for example. In particular, satellites will complement cellular radio communications in rural areas, where cellular radio coverage is poor. Wireless LANs are the fastest growing area. Many new products are on the market, with speeds up to 50 Mb/s (e.g., standard IEEE 802.11a), and it is expected that wireless LANs will soon cover all the indoor areas (both residential and commercial). Thus, it appears that the most interesting trend in the near future will be the seamless integration of the above technologies, to allow a mobile user, for example, to migrate from one domain to another under the guidance of a “nomadic router” installed in its personal area network. The nomadic router (which may be an agent in your PDA or cell telephone, for example) will decide which network you should connect to—cellular, wireless LAN, or satellite.
Emerging Technologies that Will Change the World
A special issue of the MIT Technology Review [22] offers the educated prediction of their editors made after consultation with top technology experts. The editors selected 10 areas of emerging technology that they believe will have a great effect on our lives, and they illustrate one innovator who exemplifies the potential and promise of the field. Seven of those selected areas are briefly described below: 1. Brain-Machine Interface. This area includes research to gain a better understanding of how the mind works and to use this knowledge to build implant systems that would make brain control of computers and other machines possible. Duke University research has successfully demonstrated the possibilities by sending signals from individual neurons in the brain of Belle (a nocturnal owl monkey) to a robot, which used the data to mimic the monkey’s arm movements in real time. Results of the study led to the belief that the research, in the long run, will enable human brains to control artificial devices designed to restore lost sensory and motor functions. 2. Flexible Transistors. To support computing everywhere, integrated circuits must be inexpensive and flexible, a difficult combination for today’s silicon technology.
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3.
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Technology innovators are attempting to circumvent these limits—some by trying to reinvent amorphous silicon, others by trying to develop transistors based on organic (carbon-based) molecules. At IBM’s Thomas Watson Research Center, researchers offered a breakthrough with transistors made from materials that combine the chargeshuttling power and speed of inorganics with the affordability and flexibility of organics. Applications include digital newspapers, digital labels and clothing, and flat-panel video displays. Data Mining or Knowledge Discovery. This process refers to the rapidly emerging technology that lies behind the personalized Web, that sorts through gigabytes of Web logs in search of patterns no one can anticipate in advance. Usama Fayyad’s accomplishments are highlighted, from his doctoral study of pattern recognition algorithm (in wide application today), including astronomical research [23]—where it helped to automatically determine which of about two billion observed celestial objects were stars and which were galaxies, and to find volcanoes on Venus from the huge number of radar images being transmitted from space probes—to military intelligence and the medical field. Another example is “video mining,” combining speech recognition, image understanding, and natural language processing techniques. Digital Rights Management (DMR). DMR seeks to protect content in a wired or wireless world. It tries to assist with the conflict among the owners of intellectual property or content and the Internet users who want content to be freely distributed. Content owners are trying different economic models for valuing content. Systems are appearing in support of DRM where the content is encoded, and to obtain the key a user needs to take an action, such as paying money or providing some kind of identification. Biometrics. Biometrics entails the identification of persons by specific biological traits—fingerprints, face and iris recognition—in wide use in government and military applications. Even though some of these technologies have been adopted, consumers have been reluctant to use them. However, other technology developments—such as increased bandwidth, new cell telephones, and hand-held computers equipped with digital cameras—will create an infrastructure capable of putting biometrics into the hands of consumers. An example of the latest technology is put forth by Visionics’ FaceIt [24], which verifies a person’s identity based on a set of 14 facial features that are unique to the individual and are unaffected by the presence of facial hair or change in expressions. This system has found success fighting crime in England and election fraud in Mexico. Natural Language Processing. The talkative Hal of the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey, has not yet become real. However, technology is evolving in this area, with speech recognition software that can take dictation, speech generation equipment that can give mute people voices, and software that can understand a plain English language query to extract the answers from a database. Prototypes emerging from research laboratories and sponsored by DARPA provide a new generation of interfaces that will enable us to engage computers in extended conversation, as well as support pointing, gesturing, and other forms of visual communication. These prototypes require a complex integration of speech recognition, natural language understanding, discourse analysis, world knowledge, reasoning ability, and speech generation. IBM and Microsoft are investigating speech-enabled intelligent environments, where any object large enough to hold a chip may actually have one.
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7.
Microfluidics. The term microfluidics, coined by California Institute of Technology physicist Stephen Quake refers to a new branch of biotechnology. Microfluidics uses physics to manipulate objects on a vastly reduced scale, i.e., tiny volumes of fluids thousands of times smaller than a dewdrop. Once you master fluids on a microscale, you can automate key experiments for genomics and pharmaceutical development, perform instant diagnostic tests, and even build implantable drug-delivery devices on a mass-produced chips. Many industry observers predict microfluidics will do for biotechnology what the transistor did for electronics.
Interesting research associated with smart home care has interesting applications: smart socks for diabetics to detect circulation problems; smart bandages to detect bacteria (recently announced commercially); skin sensors for glucose monitoring; and sensors in the home to detect and track occupants (especially for elder care). Other examples of research (sponsored by the National Science Foundation) cover a wide area: • Neural prosthetics for the spinal cord • A pill that collects information about a person’s digestive track • Genome sequencing • Biocomplexity of atom, molecule, cell, tissue, organ, organism, population, habitat, community, and ecosystem • Remote sensing in support of checking traffic in bridges and tunnels • Global ocean ecosystem dynamics for environmental purposes
Futuristic Technologies and Concepts
Futuristic trends discussed in this section still require further research and experimentation. They were brought about by leading authorities in the field at the March 2001 ACM1 Conference [1]. The objective of this conference was to enlighten the public about life in the next millennium and to discuss future directions in many fields including biology, oceanography, astrophysics, life sciences, social sciences, and education. Future of the Internet. The “Supranet” will lead to new opportunities in augmenting the physical world with the electronic world of information; for example, today the French Printemp Magazin store offers telepresence (via www.Webcamer.com), which provides remote shopping experiences. Currently, people need to log on to a networked PC to enter the electronic world. In the future, information will be superimposed onto objects and places; information will be captured and stored through wearable devices and embedded sensors. Early commercial examples are refrigerators with screens connected to the Internet, digital frames, etc. Many technical and sociological issues are associated with this merger of the e-world with the physical world, including security, reliability, health hazards, privacy, and filtering, and prioritization. Ten years from now, the Internet could be a phenomenon that has expanded beyond Earth to form an interplanetary network (Figure 4) of internets reaching to Mars and beyond. The concept of an interplanetary internet came to Vin Cerf [25] several years ago as he was trying to formulate what the Internet might look like in the future. He envisioned a series of internets linked by gateways and using the Internet protocol (IP) suite as its basis. Why would we need an interplanetary internet? An immediate application would be to help facilitate communications between Mars and Earth on exploratory missions, which would enable mission designers to use smaller spacecraft, or devote more weight and
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Figure 4. Interplanetary internet (Next Generation Internet [NGI] Initiative)
volume to scientific payloads. NASA and network designers are currently working on this concept [26]. Cerf [25] claims that “by 2040, they hope to establish an interplanetary backbone between the planets.” The difference between using the Internet on Earth and connecting with Mars is that even at the speed of light, radio signals take three minutes to travel that far, and since the distance between Mars and Earth is constantly changing, the travel time could be as long as 20 minutes.The Internet suite is heavily based on interactivity, trading signals back and forth to make sure packets are received intact or resending them. For the space network, they will have to take away the interactivity and bundle all the information into a single transaction; researchers are retooling protocols for those future communications. Other problems to be solved include power consumption and the servicing of broken hardware. Virtual Environments and Immersive Training Simulation. The USC Institute for Creative Technologies (ICT) [27], sponsored by the US Army, is enlisting the resources and talents of the entertainment and game development industries to work collaboratively with computer scientists to advance the state of immersive training simulation. The goal is to provide a virtual room where computer programs and visualization will replicate the sights, sounds, feel, and smells of real combat to elicit emotions similar to those felt in combat. The ICT plans to create the Experience Learning System (ELS), which will provide the ability to learn through an active, as opposed to passive, system. In addition to specific military training tasks, the ELS will have applications for a broad range of educational initiatives. The ICT’s work with the entertainment industry brings expertise in story, character, visual effects, and production to the ELS. In addition, game developers bring computer graphics and modeling resources; the computer science community brings innovation in networking, artificial intelligence, and virtual reality technology. The four basic research vectors of the ICT are entertainment industry assets, photoreal computer graphics (including wind and temperature), immersive audio allowing participants to fully experience sounds of combat, and artificial intelligence for virtual humans.
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Intelligent Ambients. Ambient intelligence refers to electronic environments that are sensitive, adaptive, and responsive to the presence of people; it is closely related to ubiquitous computing and intelligent user interaction. One of its goals is to move technology to the background and place a person in the center of his or her digital environment. Martin Schuurmans from the Philips Centre for Industrial Technology [1] claims that ambient intelligence is the next paradigm for (consumer) electronics. For example, visualize yourself entering your home after being recognized by an intelligent camera that switches off the alarm as it opens the door for you. Upon entering a room, the lights automatically go on, your preferred music starts playing, and the walls (via flat panels) can be transformed to make you feel in your favorite place. You will be able to personalize the area to your preferences or request your choices, depending on your mood. Some of this technology is available today, limited by bandwidth. Characteristics necessary for this vision are • Embedded. Has many invisible distributed devices throughout the environment • Personalized. Can be tailored to our needs • Adaptive. Can change in response to you and environment • Anticipatory. Anticipates desires as far as possible without conscious mediation All characteristic parameters of technology will require improvements in process technology, including storage, bandwidth, compute power, silicon, input/output devices; and new inventions such as bendable displays, protections, silicon on glass, and transmission media. A key human issue is whether people will be able to adapt to the feeling of being observed and monitored by the environment. Much of the acceptance will depend on the functional benefit of such environments and on their ability to interact with people in a natural manner. Moore’s Law and Kurzweil’s Singularity Principle. Moore’s Law [28]—“the number of transistors per integrated circuit doubles every 18 months”—was introduced in 1965, just four years after the first planar integrated circuit was discovered. Moore forecast that this trend would continue through 1975, but it has continued until today [29], and many predict that it will continue for another 15 to 20 years. By that time, transistor features will be just a few atoms in width. Kurzweil [30] has extrapolated Moore’s Law, claiming that technological change is exponential and that this exponential growth is true in many domains. He points out that, even though people have accepted continuous technological progress, few have truly thought about the implications of the fact that the rate of change itself is accelerating. He predicts “by 2030, there will be nanobots circulating in the body, turning on/off neurons, thus the ultimate virtual reality.” He states that at today’s rate of progress it may take 100 years to develop self-replicating nanoengineered entities. But because we double the rate of progress every decade, we will see a century of progress—at today’s rate—in 25 years. He claims that technology forecasts ignore altogether this historical exponential view of technological progress. Therefore, people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in the short term (because we leave out necessary details) but underestimate what can be achieved in the long term (because the exponential growth is ignored). He denotes singularity as “technological change so rapid and profound that it may represent a rupture in the fabric of human history.” Kurzweil also states that the most compelling scenario for mastering the software of intelligence is to tap into the blueprint of an intelligent process. He believes it is possible to reverse-engineer the human brain and essentially copy its design, by means of brain
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scans, which will record neurotransmitter concentrations, or via nanobots, which could travel through every brain capillary and scan every relevant feature up close. Using highspeed wireless communication, the nanobots would communicate with one another and computers that compile the brain scan database. Human Immortality. In 1796, life expectancy was 24 years; a hundred years later it doubled to 48. It is now about 75. “Over half the baby boomers here in America are going to see their hundredth birthday and beyond in excellent health,” says Dr. Ronald Klatz of the American Academy of Anti-Aging [31]. “We’re looking at life spans for the baby boomers and the generation after the baby boomers of 120 to 150 years of age.” Today’s quest for the fountain of youth is taking scientists from inside the genetic structure of cells to analyzing the role of stress and diet on life spans. Kristin Leutwyler [32] has reported that researchers looking at the deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) molecule, have shown that the telomerase gene can be activated in human cells, and that it does extend cell life. It also cites that the initial development appeared in the August 15, 1997 issue of Science, reporting that a group headed by Nobelist Thomas Cech (University of Colorado at Boulder) and colleagues at Geron Corporation (Menlo Park, California), a biotechnology company specializing in aging research, had isolated the human gene for a catalytic protein called telomerase reverse transcriptase. Since then, much research has been done in the area. More importantly, these findings open up new avenues for research into diseases that occur when cells grow old, including macular degeneration in the eye, arteriosclerosis, and those that arise when cells do not age at all, such as in the case of cancer. On the computing side, recent advances in media storage currently allow what is being called “Digital Immortality” where part of a person is converted into information (cyberized) and stored [33]. That includes pictures, video, voice, and data (e.g., ideas, essays). Other projects—like Microsoft’s CyberAll—are investigating what is sometimes called two-way immortality, which allows one to communicate with the future in the sense that the artifact continues to learn and evolve. And Kurzweil claims that it is possible to make a compelling avatar of a person, given an archive of a person’s spoken output. Many issues arise with this concept: • How should media be organized and presented? • Who should be able to see what, and when? • What are the legal and ethical rights and responsibilities concerning information involving other people? By 2030, nanobots are predicted to be inside people, extending the human brain and expanding the power of human intelligence. Health problems such as vision impairment, deafness, and Parkinson’s disease could benefit from this technology. Engineering may gain certain control over biological processes, our bodies will be able to be changed and repaired, and technology will increase our life span, but what immortality will mean in this context is yet to be defined.
Technology Predictions for the Next 50 Years
In this section, technology predictions are listed for the next 5, 10, and 50 years [34] by scientists at the world’s leading research laboratories where many technology innovations are born: Xerox Palo Alto Research Center (Palo Alto, California); MIT’s Artificial
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Intelligence Laboratory (Cambridge, Massachusetts); and Starlab (Brussels, Belgium). According to them, technology is just beginning to change our lives, with plenty of advances to come. (Information reprinted with permission from CNET, Inc. Copyright © 1995–2002. www.cnet.com.) Xerox 2005 Gene chips will be widely available. Medical researchers will use these chips to analyze the effect of chemicals on DNA and to develop gene therapies. 2010 Plazas, town squares, and other public spaces will be reinvented to include interactive digital-art installations. 2050 Genetic engineering will take hold. Expect the creation and replication of creatures large and small. MIT AI Laboratory 2005 Robotic products such as cleaning machines, priced in the $100 to $200 range, will be common in many homes. They will be controlled via the Web. 2010 Advanced personal robots will appear, as will robot-assisted surgery. People will accept robotics in their bodies. 2050 Scientists will have precise digital control of cells. Biological robots will enhance the performance of the human body. Starlab 2005 Artificial limbs will interface with the human brain. Eye transplants will appear. Home appliances will recognize emotions and adjust accordingly. 2010 Customized medicine will be based on our individual genetic makeup. Genes will be used as a form of identification. 2050 Scientists will be much further along in their attempts to directly engineer nanoscale machines. These predictions demonstrate the wide effect derived from technological advances. We also note a special issue of Communications of the ACM [35], entitled “The next 1000 years,” which contains essays by leading industry experts and scientists on their views on the next millennium. It includes a mix of networked technologies and tools, software that anticipates users’ needs, digital immortality, cyborgs and cyberwear, and the warning that many of our dreams will not be realized if we do not address our educational weaknesses.
Summary
This paper has illustrated a number of interesting technologies, current, emerging, and futuristic, together with predictions, providing a glimpse of what the future can bring and how it may affect our lives and our world. Predicting long-term effects of computers is both difficult and easy since we probably will not get it right but we also will not see ourselves proved wrong. As we travel this wonderful road of innovation and change, let us keep in mind the possible difficulties and challenges that lie ahead as a result of those changes, from technological, sociological, and economical aspects. Let us not allow those challenges to
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deter us from embracing new technology and exciting changes. However, let us make a concerted effort to continually evaluate the impact of those changes and related risks, and anticipate future effects. We must maximize the benefits and minimize the harm for ourselves, our community, and the world.
References
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. “The Invisible Future,” from presentations given at ACM1 Conf.: Beyond Cyberspace, A Journey of Many Directions (March 2001), McGraw Hill, 2002. D. Kamen, http://www.dekaresearch.com/aboutDean.html. A. Linden, J. Fenn, and K. Haley, “Gartner 2001 Hype Cycle of Emerging Trends and Technologies,” Gartner Research Notes, July 2001. A. Linden and J. Fenn, “2002 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle: Trough to Plateau and Trigger to Peak,” Gartner Research Notes COM-16-6573/3485, May 2002. H.S. Nwana, “Software Agents: An Overview,” Knowledge Engineering Review, 11:3, 1996. N.R. Jennings and M. Wooldridge, Agent Technology: Foundations, Applications and Markets, London: Springer, 1998. UMBC, Agent Web: http://agents.umbc.edu/. A. Kay, “Computer Software,” Scientific American, 251:3, 1984. J.M Bradshaw, Software Agents, Boston: MIT Press, 1997. M. Reed and J. Tour, “Computing with Molecules,” Scientific American, http://www.sciam.com/2000/0600issue/0600reed.html, June 2000. USC ISI’s CONRO Project: http://www.isi.edu/conro/. RoboCup 2002: http://www.robocup.org/. T. Berners-Lee, T. J. Hendler, and O. Lassila, “The Semantic Web,” Scientific American, May 2001, http://www.scientificamerican.com/2001/0501issue/ 0501berners-lee.html. W3 Semantic Web Activity: http://www.w3.org/2001/sw/. L. Johnson, Center for Advanced Research in Technology for Education, ISI, http://www.isi.edu/isd/johnson.html, http://www.isi.edu/isd/carte/carte-home.html. J. Rickel and W.L. Johnson, “Animated Agents for Procedural Training in Virtual Reality: Perception, Cognition, and Motor Control,” Applied Artificial Intelligence 13:343–382, 1999. E. Shaw, R. Ganeshan, W.L. Johnson, and D. Millar, “Building a Case for AgentAssisted Learning as a Catalyst for Curriculum Reform in Medical Education,” Proc. Intl. Conf. on Artificial Intelligence in Education, July 1999. LifeFX Inc. (Newton, Mass.), http://www.lifefx.com. R. Kursweil AI Web site: http://www.kurzweilai.net/. Xybernaut: http://www.xybernaut.com/newxybernaut/home.htm. R. Merritt, “DARPA kick starts wearable computer initiative,” EE Times, http://www.eetimes.com/story/OEG20011101S0054, Nov. 2001. “Emerging Technologies that Will Change the World,” MIT Technology Review, Annual Innovation Issue, Vol. 104, No. 1, Jan./Feb. 2001, excerpts in http://www.technologyreview.com.
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23. U. M. Fayyad: “Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery in Databases: Applications in Astronomy and Planetary Science,” AAAI/IAAI, Vol. 2, 1996: 1590–1592. 24. “FaceIt: Face Recognition Technology,” Visionics: http://www.visionics.com/faceit/. 25. V. Cerf, http://www1.worldcom.com/global/resources/cerfs_up/. 26. Interplanetary Internet Project: http://www.ipnsig.org/home.htm. 27. USC Institute for Creative Technologies: http://www.ict.usc.edu/. 28. G. Moore, “Cramming More Components into Integrated Circuits,” Electronics, Vol. 38., No. 8, April 1965. 29. Intel Web site: http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/mooreslaw.htm. 30. R. Kurzweil, The Singularity Is Near, a forthcoming book, http://www.kurzweilai.net. 31. R. Klatz, “Human Immortality: A scientific Reality?” Viewzone.com, http://www.viewzone.com/aging.html. 32. K. Leutwyler, “Turning Back the Strands of Time,” Scientific American, http://www.sciam.com/explore_directory.cfm, Feb. 1998. 33. Legacy.com™, Where life stories live onSM, http://www.legacy.com/. 34. A. Ashton, “Technical Predictions from Leading Scientists,” CNET: Technical Trends: Charting the Future, http://www.cnet.com/techtrends/0-6014-8-49623471.html, March 2001. 35. “The Next 1,000 years,” Communications of the ACM, Vol. 44, No. 3, March 2001.
Maria H. Penedo is a TRW Systems Technical Fellow and a senior staff engineer/scientist in TRW’s Tactical Systems Division (TSD). She is currently the principal investigator for the Independent Research and Development “Planning/ Dynamic Replanning” project and is a core member of the TSD Science Board. She has been a leader at TRW for the past 20 years in the design, insertion, and use of software engineering and information technology, especially in the areas of process-based environments, architectures, collaboration, and agents. She has led TRW toward a “virtual enterprise” by identifying and developing technology in support of the paradigm of “distributed team collaboration from mobile desktops.” She is currently an editor of Wiley’s Software Process: Improvement and Practice Journal. She holds a BS in mathematics and an MS in computer science from the Catholic University (PUC) in Brazil, and a PhD in computer science from the University of California, Los Angeles. [email protected]
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Maria H. Penedo
TRW Systems, Tactical Systems Division
We are living in exciting times; our world is changing ever more rapidly. Do you remember, how most people gathered information 20 or 30 years ago about a topic, wrote and disseminated documents, or coordinated groups of people? Information technology has transformed the way we live and work, and science and technology are evolving rapidly bringing unexpected and exciting changes. Biotechnology and nanotechnology are also evolving, and together with information technology, will have a profound effect on the economy and on the way we live and work. This paper provides a glimpse of what the future may bring as a result of these innovations by giving examples of current and emerging technologies, and including futuristic trends and predictions by market evaluators and leading scientists.
Introduction
The goal of accurately predicting the future begins with the past. The following old computing predictions that were provided by key people in the technical community exemplify the difficulty of predicting the future: • “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” (Thomas Watson, Chair IBM, 1943.) • “I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.” (Prentice-Hall editor of business books, 1957.) • “But what is a microchip good for?” (IBM engineer, 1968.) • “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” (Ken Olson, president and founder of the Digital Equipment Corporation [DEC].) These predictions are so far from our reality, that we find it difficult to believe them. On the other hand, predictions can enlighten us to the possibilities and challenges of the future, while keeping us abreast of technology evolution, which is valuable in today’s fastpaced and technology-oriented world. Information technology is continually transforming the way we live, and science and technology are evolving at such a pace that younger generations will have difficulty imagining what it was like before the computing revolution. Pervasive computing—the spread of digital information throughout society—is also introducing many changes. Nanotechnology (technology performed on a nanometer scale, one billionth of a meter, or three to five atoms across) is leading the way to great inventions and possibilities, such as the evolution of robots and the possibility of having nanobots scan the human brain. At the March 2001 ACM1 Beyond Cyberspace Conference [1], it was predicted that by 2012 we may be able to afford humanoid robots; and that by 2028, computers may become smarter than people.
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What are the implications of these predictions? Dean Kamen [2] cautions us about future predictions, stating that first-order effects are typically intended and predictable, but second-order effects are unintended and usually unpredictable (good or bad). Also, he points out that previously, unintended effects had time to be recognized and corrected, but with the accelerating pace of change, negative side effects could be larger and occur more quickly. For example, it took about 100 years to resolve many problems with the automobile; less time to figure out the consequences with pesticides; and soon we may be facing real problems related to human cell research. Thus, sometimes, predicting the future is not as useful as preparing for the unknown. This paper describes technologies affecting today’s world; discusses emerging technologies that may change the world; covers futuristic trends; and includes technology predictions for the next 50 years.
Current Promising Technologies
Some promising technologies that are affecting our world today are described below (in alphabetical order). Many of these technologies may or may not survive because of unrealistic projections, market pressure, or user acceptance. Gartner Research Notes is a commentary published yearly about the hype cycle of emerging technologies (Linden et al. [3,4]), some of which appear in this section. Their hype cycle indicates—from their perspectives—technologies climbing toward the peak of inflated expectations; others falling as a result of inflated expectations; and still others entering the plateau of productivity when their real-world benefits are demonstrated and accepted; Figure 1 illustrates their latest projections.
Figure 1. 2002 hype cycle of emerging technologies and trends [Source: Gartner Research]
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Agents. The term agent was originated with John McCarthy in the mid-1950s. Together with O. Selfridge, he coined the term, having a view of a “system that, when given a goal, could carry out the details of the appropriate computer operations and could ask for and receive advice, offered in human terms, when it was stuck.” Software agents [5-9], like human agents, are supposed to act on behalf of people to help in specific areas of expertise. There is a hope that agents will enable companies, projects, and businesses to automate a new set of tasks that currently require human action, allowing people to be more efficient and responsive to the demands of the information age. Types of agents include • Personal or Interface Agents. Help and collaborate with the user at the user interface, providing assistance by monitoring the user’s actions in the interface, learning and suggesting better ways of doing the task at hand. • Information Agents. Help manage the growth of online information; for example, “Distribute this draft of the document to the rest of the group and advise me when all have finished reviewing.” • Notifiers. Typically monitor information and alert you with e-mail when changes occur or some rule is broken. • Mobile agents. Used to reduce network load, encapsulating protocols and working asynchronously and autonomously, being able to move among machines and work in different environments. Agent technology is claimed to be one of the most vibrant and fastest growing areas of information technology. Application domains such as network management, air traffic control, business reengineering, data mining, information retrieval/management, electronic commerce, digital libraries, and command and control can benefit significantly from this technology. Even though some feel that the results are not meeting the expectations, others [9] believe that independent of the current successes or failures of agent research, the kinds of issues raised point toward exciting developments in the new millennium. Bluetooth. Bluetooth is a technology that allows devices (laptops, cell telephones, handheld computers, printers, and fax machines) to communicate wirelessly with one another via 2.4 GHz radio signals. For example, in meetings or conferences one can transfer selected documents instantly with selected participants and exchange electronic business cards automatically, without wired connections or wireless local area networks (LANs). Another example is the capability to automatically update your desktop with data, address list, and calendar from your personal digital assistant (PDA), as soon as you enter your office. By 2005, about 670 million devices are expected to be Bluetooth-enabled. Gartner expects more than 30 million chipsets to be shipped and chip prices to break the $5 barrier by the end of 2002. Some security and interoperability issues still remain, including interference with other communications technology [4]. Digital Signatures and Public Key Infrastructure (PKI). Digital signatures are to electronic messages what handwritten signatures are to printed correspondence, but virtually impossible to forge (unique per message and sender). A signature algorithm is applied to the message together with the sender’s key generating a signature to accompany the message; the recipient uses a verification key to confirm the origin of the message and that it has not been tampered with while in transit. A PKI is a collection of servers and software that enables an enterprise to distribute and manage thousands of unique cryptographic keys.
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Gartner comments that this technology is ready for deployment and that it has begun to increasingly become a feature of applications, rather than remaining an end product. An example of the design and implementation of a secure, remote PKI system is discussed in more detail in a separate article in this issue of the Technology Review Journal (Freeman et al., “Design and Implementation of Secure, Remote PKI Key Management System”). Molecular Computers. The drive to make computers faster and to produce smaller devices is pushing technology to a new form of electronics in which specially designed, individual molecules replace the transistors of today’s circuits. In a series of demonstrations, chemists, physicists, and engineers have shown that individual molecules can conduct and switch electric current and store information. Such devices will need far less power than current computers and may be able to hold vast amounts of data permanently. In July 2000, researchers from Hewlett-Packard and the University of California, Los Angeles, announced they had built an electronic switch consisting of a layer of several million molecules of an organic substance called rotaxane. This new molecular “logic gate” grows in a crystalline structure and absorbs information in the form of an electrical charge. This technology can potentially harness the computational power of 100 workstations on the size of a grain of sand and perform about 100 billion times better than a current Pentium chip in terms of energy required to do a calculation. Some researchers believe that the migration to molecular computers could occur within the next decade [10]. Robots. Robots have progressed to being toys, and the next step will be widespread use as tools. Some of these tools are already available in the commercial market: a robotic lawnmower is being sold in Israel; a robot that can clean floors has been designed; and an iRobot for remote presence is equipped with voice and a camera so one can talk to his/her children while on travel. Robots such as unmanned ground vehicles are currently being used within the military, for space exploration and in competitions. Research work is evolving into new applications, as exemplified by the University of Southern California’s Information Science Institute’s (ISI’s) CONRO project [11] and the RoboCup [12]. For example: • The CONRO project has the goal of providing the warfighter with a miniature reconfigurable robot that can be tasked to perform reconnaissance, search, and identification tasks in urban, seashore, and other field environments. CONRO, illustrated in Figure 2, will be made from identical miniature modules that can be programmed to alter its topology in order to respond to environmental challenges or obstacles. The base topology is simply connected, as in a snake, but the system can reconfigure itself to grow a set of legs or other specialized appendages. Each module will consist of a central processing unit, some memory, a battery, and a micromotor, plus a variety of other sensors and functionality, including vision and wireless connection and docking sensors. Major challenges include packaging, power, and cooling, as well as the major issue of programming and program control. • RoboCup is an international research and education initiative. Its goal is to foster artificial intelligence and robotics research by providing a standard problem where a wide range of technologies can be examined and integrated. The concept of soccerplaying robots was first introduced in 1993. Teams are composed of a group of robots and their objective is to score goals. The robots are permitted to communicate via wireless transceivers to each other or to a global decision-making computer; a global vision system may be used for global robot and ball position determination.
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Figure 2. The USC/ISI CONRO project (http://www.isi.edu/conro)
Competitions have been held internationally, and the last one was held in Japan, coinciding with the “2002 Soccer World Cup Korea/Japan.” Today, more than 3000 researchers from 35 countries and regions are participating in various projects such as international games, conferences, research, and educational programs. Their ultimate goal is to develop a team of fully autonomous humanoid robots that can win against the human world soccer champions by the year 2050. Semantic Web. Today’s Web content is mostly designed for human beings to read. The Semantic Web [3, 13,14] is an extension of the current Web in which information is given well-defined semantics, thus enabling computers to manipulate the data meaningfully. The goal is to provide a language that expresses both data and rules for reasoning about the data, and to provide the means to use rules to make inferences, choose courses of action, and answer questions. Key existing technologies toward this goal are • eXtensible Markup Language (XML). XML allows users to add structure to their documents. • Resource Description Framework (RDF). RDF allows expressing meaning as webs of information about related things. • Ontologies. Collections of information in the various domains that typically include a taxonomy and a set of inference rules. It is believed that the real power of the Semantic Web will be realized when people create programs (e.g., software agents) that collect Web content from diverse sources, process the information, and exchange the results with other programs. Putting these features together will allow the following request from a woman to her “personal software agent,” when her daughter was hurt playing soccer: “Look up an orthopedist who specializes in children’s sport injuries and is on her employer’s list of medical providers, works in a 10mile radius of the Windward school, and has published works in knee injuries.” The goal is to have a “value chain” where information is passed from agent to agent, each adding value, to construct a final product requested by the end user.
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Synthetic Characters (Sometimes Called Avatars). Avatars appear in many places on the Web today. These electronic characters converse with users in natural language, typically to train, act as a tour guide, or access online information. There are many types of synthetic characters. Examples being investigated at USC’s ISI [15] are Steve [16], depicted in Figure 3a, and Adele [17]. Steve is an autonomous pedagogical agent that provides training in virtual environments, both in individual and team settings; Adele is a Web-based pedagogical agent being applied to medical education that provides instruction in the context of case-based learning modules. Another application is digital stand-ins by lifeFX [18]—virtual people that can answer questions, present product demonstrations, or transmit e-mail. They are synthesized digitally from two-dimensional photographs molded onto moving digital skull models. The software allows you to type in text and familiar emotions such as smile, sadness, or a kiss. The different types of stand-ins will speak the messages, using text-to-speech voices; their latest version enables you to send messages with your voice using your current email program. Still another example of a virtual character is Ramona (depicted in Figure 3b), R. Kurzweil’s real-time avatar, who serves as a tour guide of the KurzweilAI.net Web site [19]; users can converse with Ramona in natural language. Also, with special equipment and properly wired, Ramona can pick up words and body motions from Kurzweil. Wearable Computers. Advances in wearable and mobile computing offer new possibilities to increase efficiency, reduce costs, and save lives. Xybernaut [20] sells a product line of wearable PC, hands-free systems that includes a body-worn, voice-activated, powerful processor and a video graphics array color flat panel or head-mounted color display with microphone and eyepiece, through which the user sees a video display. An example application is the Urban Jungle Pack prototype, designed for mobile online journalism, which provides video/audio/data feeds on a head-mounted device, allowing reporters to retrieve information from the office and provide live feeds into the Internet. R. Merritt [21] states that a growing group of researchers is coalescing about the idea that the future of mobile computing may have less to do with small PCs and more to do with something they call “smart yarn.” The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) recently released a request for proposals that aims to bring together people and
a. Steve (copyright © USC/ISI)
Figure 3. Synthetic characters
b. Ramona (copyright © KurzweilAI.net)
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technologies in the textile and electronics industries to produce the tools, processes, and fundamental technology needed to build a new class of wearable systems made of fabric. Examples are parachutes that generate solar power or track satellite signals. DARPA also plans to bring about development of new kinds of yarns, fabric interconnects, and computer-aided design (CAD) tools for weaving into textiles the equivalent of a printed-circuit board. These systems will include sensors, actuators, photovoltaic devices, batteries, and storage. Also, both the medical and military fields are using wireless biomonitoring for patients, soldiers, and athletes. Advances in wearable and mobile computing offer a wide spectrum of new possibilities to increase efficiency, reduce costs, and save lives. Wireless field. The wireless field is growing in four areas: • Cellular networks that are moving slowly toward third-generation, i.e., Universal Mobile Telecon System standard • Wireless LANs for indoor access to the Internet • Personal-area networks, the most promising area for wire replacement • Satellite communications that have a good market today for remote areas (very small aperture satellite terminals for TV broadcast and for Internet access) In the future, both low-elevation orbiting and geosynchronous-elevation orbiting satellites will serve the mobile user—in the car, for example. In particular, satellites will complement cellular radio communications in rural areas, where cellular radio coverage is poor. Wireless LANs are the fastest growing area. Many new products are on the market, with speeds up to 50 Mb/s (e.g., standard IEEE 802.11a), and it is expected that wireless LANs will soon cover all the indoor areas (both residential and commercial). Thus, it appears that the most interesting trend in the near future will be the seamless integration of the above technologies, to allow a mobile user, for example, to migrate from one domain to another under the guidance of a “nomadic router” installed in its personal area network. The nomadic router (which may be an agent in your PDA or cell telephone, for example) will decide which network you should connect to—cellular, wireless LAN, or satellite.
Emerging Technologies that Will Change the World
A special issue of the MIT Technology Review [22] offers the educated prediction of their editors made after consultation with top technology experts. The editors selected 10 areas of emerging technology that they believe will have a great effect on our lives, and they illustrate one innovator who exemplifies the potential and promise of the field. Seven of those selected areas are briefly described below: 1. Brain-Machine Interface. This area includes research to gain a better understanding of how the mind works and to use this knowledge to build implant systems that would make brain control of computers and other machines possible. Duke University research has successfully demonstrated the possibilities by sending signals from individual neurons in the brain of Belle (a nocturnal owl monkey) to a robot, which used the data to mimic the monkey’s arm movements in real time. Results of the study led to the belief that the research, in the long run, will enable human brains to control artificial devices designed to restore lost sensory and motor functions. 2. Flexible Transistors. To support computing everywhere, integrated circuits must be inexpensive and flexible, a difficult combination for today’s silicon technology.
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3.
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Technology innovators are attempting to circumvent these limits—some by trying to reinvent amorphous silicon, others by trying to develop transistors based on organic (carbon-based) molecules. At IBM’s Thomas Watson Research Center, researchers offered a breakthrough with transistors made from materials that combine the chargeshuttling power and speed of inorganics with the affordability and flexibility of organics. Applications include digital newspapers, digital labels and clothing, and flat-panel video displays. Data Mining or Knowledge Discovery. This process refers to the rapidly emerging technology that lies behind the personalized Web, that sorts through gigabytes of Web logs in search of patterns no one can anticipate in advance. Usama Fayyad’s accomplishments are highlighted, from his doctoral study of pattern recognition algorithm (in wide application today), including astronomical research [23]—where it helped to automatically determine which of about two billion observed celestial objects were stars and which were galaxies, and to find volcanoes on Venus from the huge number of radar images being transmitted from space probes—to military intelligence and the medical field. Another example is “video mining,” combining speech recognition, image understanding, and natural language processing techniques. Digital Rights Management (DMR). DMR seeks to protect content in a wired or wireless world. It tries to assist with the conflict among the owners of intellectual property or content and the Internet users who want content to be freely distributed. Content owners are trying different economic models for valuing content. Systems are appearing in support of DRM where the content is encoded, and to obtain the key a user needs to take an action, such as paying money or providing some kind of identification. Biometrics. Biometrics entails the identification of persons by specific biological traits—fingerprints, face and iris recognition—in wide use in government and military applications. Even though some of these technologies have been adopted, consumers have been reluctant to use them. However, other technology developments—such as increased bandwidth, new cell telephones, and hand-held computers equipped with digital cameras—will create an infrastructure capable of putting biometrics into the hands of consumers. An example of the latest technology is put forth by Visionics’ FaceIt [24], which verifies a person’s identity based on a set of 14 facial features that are unique to the individual and are unaffected by the presence of facial hair or change in expressions. This system has found success fighting crime in England and election fraud in Mexico. Natural Language Processing. The talkative Hal of the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey, has not yet become real. However, technology is evolving in this area, with speech recognition software that can take dictation, speech generation equipment that can give mute people voices, and software that can understand a plain English language query to extract the answers from a database. Prototypes emerging from research laboratories and sponsored by DARPA provide a new generation of interfaces that will enable us to engage computers in extended conversation, as well as support pointing, gesturing, and other forms of visual communication. These prototypes require a complex integration of speech recognition, natural language understanding, discourse analysis, world knowledge, reasoning ability, and speech generation. IBM and Microsoft are investigating speech-enabled intelligent environments, where any object large enough to hold a chip may actually have one.
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7.
Microfluidics. The term microfluidics, coined by California Institute of Technology physicist Stephen Quake refers to a new branch of biotechnology. Microfluidics uses physics to manipulate objects on a vastly reduced scale, i.e., tiny volumes of fluids thousands of times smaller than a dewdrop. Once you master fluids on a microscale, you can automate key experiments for genomics and pharmaceutical development, perform instant diagnostic tests, and even build implantable drug-delivery devices on a mass-produced chips. Many industry observers predict microfluidics will do for biotechnology what the transistor did for electronics.
Interesting research associated with smart home care has interesting applications: smart socks for diabetics to detect circulation problems; smart bandages to detect bacteria (recently announced commercially); skin sensors for glucose monitoring; and sensors in the home to detect and track occupants (especially for elder care). Other examples of research (sponsored by the National Science Foundation) cover a wide area: • Neural prosthetics for the spinal cord • A pill that collects information about a person’s digestive track • Genome sequencing • Biocomplexity of atom, molecule, cell, tissue, organ, organism, population, habitat, community, and ecosystem • Remote sensing in support of checking traffic in bridges and tunnels • Global ocean ecosystem dynamics for environmental purposes
Futuristic Technologies and Concepts
Futuristic trends discussed in this section still require further research and experimentation. They were brought about by leading authorities in the field at the March 2001 ACM1 Conference [1]. The objective of this conference was to enlighten the public about life in the next millennium and to discuss future directions in many fields including biology, oceanography, astrophysics, life sciences, social sciences, and education. Future of the Internet. The “Supranet” will lead to new opportunities in augmenting the physical world with the electronic world of information; for example, today the French Printemp Magazin store offers telepresence (via www.Webcamer.com), which provides remote shopping experiences. Currently, people need to log on to a networked PC to enter the electronic world. In the future, information will be superimposed onto objects and places; information will be captured and stored through wearable devices and embedded sensors. Early commercial examples are refrigerators with screens connected to the Internet, digital frames, etc. Many technical and sociological issues are associated with this merger of the e-world with the physical world, including security, reliability, health hazards, privacy, and filtering, and prioritization. Ten years from now, the Internet could be a phenomenon that has expanded beyond Earth to form an interplanetary network (Figure 4) of internets reaching to Mars and beyond. The concept of an interplanetary internet came to Vin Cerf [25] several years ago as he was trying to formulate what the Internet might look like in the future. He envisioned a series of internets linked by gateways and using the Internet protocol (IP) suite as its basis. Why would we need an interplanetary internet? An immediate application would be to help facilitate communications between Mars and Earth on exploratory missions, which would enable mission designers to use smaller spacecraft, or devote more weight and
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Figure 4. Interplanetary internet (Next Generation Internet [NGI] Initiative)
volume to scientific payloads. NASA and network designers are currently working on this concept [26]. Cerf [25] claims that “by 2040, they hope to establish an interplanetary backbone between the planets.” The difference between using the Internet on Earth and connecting with Mars is that even at the speed of light, radio signals take three minutes to travel that far, and since the distance between Mars and Earth is constantly changing, the travel time could be as long as 20 minutes.The Internet suite is heavily based on interactivity, trading signals back and forth to make sure packets are received intact or resending them. For the space network, they will have to take away the interactivity and bundle all the information into a single transaction; researchers are retooling protocols for those future communications. Other problems to be solved include power consumption and the servicing of broken hardware. Virtual Environments and Immersive Training Simulation. The USC Institute for Creative Technologies (ICT) [27], sponsored by the US Army, is enlisting the resources and talents of the entertainment and game development industries to work collaboratively with computer scientists to advance the state of immersive training simulation. The goal is to provide a virtual room where computer programs and visualization will replicate the sights, sounds, feel, and smells of real combat to elicit emotions similar to those felt in combat. The ICT plans to create the Experience Learning System (ELS), which will provide the ability to learn through an active, as opposed to passive, system. In addition to specific military training tasks, the ELS will have applications for a broad range of educational initiatives. The ICT’s work with the entertainment industry brings expertise in story, character, visual effects, and production to the ELS. In addition, game developers bring computer graphics and modeling resources; the computer science community brings innovation in networking, artificial intelligence, and virtual reality technology. The four basic research vectors of the ICT are entertainment industry assets, photoreal computer graphics (including wind and temperature), immersive audio allowing participants to fully experience sounds of combat, and artificial intelligence for virtual humans.
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Intelligent Ambients. Ambient intelligence refers to electronic environments that are sensitive, adaptive, and responsive to the presence of people; it is closely related to ubiquitous computing and intelligent user interaction. One of its goals is to move technology to the background and place a person in the center of his or her digital environment. Martin Schuurmans from the Philips Centre for Industrial Technology [1] claims that ambient intelligence is the next paradigm for (consumer) electronics. For example, visualize yourself entering your home after being recognized by an intelligent camera that switches off the alarm as it opens the door for you. Upon entering a room, the lights automatically go on, your preferred music starts playing, and the walls (via flat panels) can be transformed to make you feel in your favorite place. You will be able to personalize the area to your preferences or request your choices, depending on your mood. Some of this technology is available today, limited by bandwidth. Characteristics necessary for this vision are • Embedded. Has many invisible distributed devices throughout the environment • Personalized. Can be tailored to our needs • Adaptive. Can change in response to you and environment • Anticipatory. Anticipates desires as far as possible without conscious mediation All characteristic parameters of technology will require improvements in process technology, including storage, bandwidth, compute power, silicon, input/output devices; and new inventions such as bendable displays, protections, silicon on glass, and transmission media. A key human issue is whether people will be able to adapt to the feeling of being observed and monitored by the environment. Much of the acceptance will depend on the functional benefit of such environments and on their ability to interact with people in a natural manner. Moore’s Law and Kurzweil’s Singularity Principle. Moore’s Law [28]—“the number of transistors per integrated circuit doubles every 18 months”—was introduced in 1965, just four years after the first planar integrated circuit was discovered. Moore forecast that this trend would continue through 1975, but it has continued until today [29], and many predict that it will continue for another 15 to 20 years. By that time, transistor features will be just a few atoms in width. Kurzweil [30] has extrapolated Moore’s Law, claiming that technological change is exponential and that this exponential growth is true in many domains. He points out that, even though people have accepted continuous technological progress, few have truly thought about the implications of the fact that the rate of change itself is accelerating. He predicts “by 2030, there will be nanobots circulating in the body, turning on/off neurons, thus the ultimate virtual reality.” He states that at today’s rate of progress it may take 100 years to develop self-replicating nanoengineered entities. But because we double the rate of progress every decade, we will see a century of progress—at today’s rate—in 25 years. He claims that technology forecasts ignore altogether this historical exponential view of technological progress. Therefore, people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in the short term (because we leave out necessary details) but underestimate what can be achieved in the long term (because the exponential growth is ignored). He denotes singularity as “technological change so rapid and profound that it may represent a rupture in the fabric of human history.” Kurzweil also states that the most compelling scenario for mastering the software of intelligence is to tap into the blueprint of an intelligent process. He believes it is possible to reverse-engineer the human brain and essentially copy its design, by means of brain
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scans, which will record neurotransmitter concentrations, or via nanobots, which could travel through every brain capillary and scan every relevant feature up close. Using highspeed wireless communication, the nanobots would communicate with one another and computers that compile the brain scan database. Human Immortality. In 1796, life expectancy was 24 years; a hundred years later it doubled to 48. It is now about 75. “Over half the baby boomers here in America are going to see their hundredth birthday and beyond in excellent health,” says Dr. Ronald Klatz of the American Academy of Anti-Aging [31]. “We’re looking at life spans for the baby boomers and the generation after the baby boomers of 120 to 150 years of age.” Today’s quest for the fountain of youth is taking scientists from inside the genetic structure of cells to analyzing the role of stress and diet on life spans. Kristin Leutwyler [32] has reported that researchers looking at the deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) molecule, have shown that the telomerase gene can be activated in human cells, and that it does extend cell life. It also cites that the initial development appeared in the August 15, 1997 issue of Science, reporting that a group headed by Nobelist Thomas Cech (University of Colorado at Boulder) and colleagues at Geron Corporation (Menlo Park, California), a biotechnology company specializing in aging research, had isolated the human gene for a catalytic protein called telomerase reverse transcriptase. Since then, much research has been done in the area. More importantly, these findings open up new avenues for research into diseases that occur when cells grow old, including macular degeneration in the eye, arteriosclerosis, and those that arise when cells do not age at all, such as in the case of cancer. On the computing side, recent advances in media storage currently allow what is being called “Digital Immortality” where part of a person is converted into information (cyberized) and stored [33]. That includes pictures, video, voice, and data (e.g., ideas, essays). Other projects—like Microsoft’s CyberAll—are investigating what is sometimes called two-way immortality, which allows one to communicate with the future in the sense that the artifact continues to learn and evolve. And Kurzweil claims that it is possible to make a compelling avatar of a person, given an archive of a person’s spoken output. Many issues arise with this concept: • How should media be organized and presented? • Who should be able to see what, and when? • What are the legal and ethical rights and responsibilities concerning information involving other people? By 2030, nanobots are predicted to be inside people, extending the human brain and expanding the power of human intelligence. Health problems such as vision impairment, deafness, and Parkinson’s disease could benefit from this technology. Engineering may gain certain control over biological processes, our bodies will be able to be changed and repaired, and technology will increase our life span, but what immortality will mean in this context is yet to be defined.
Technology Predictions for the Next 50 Years
In this section, technology predictions are listed for the next 5, 10, and 50 years [34] by scientists at the world’s leading research laboratories where many technology innovations are born: Xerox Palo Alto Research Center (Palo Alto, California); MIT’s Artificial
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Intelligence Laboratory (Cambridge, Massachusetts); and Starlab (Brussels, Belgium). According to them, technology is just beginning to change our lives, with plenty of advances to come. (Information reprinted with permission from CNET, Inc. Copyright © 1995–2002. www.cnet.com.) Xerox 2005 Gene chips will be widely available. Medical researchers will use these chips to analyze the effect of chemicals on DNA and to develop gene therapies. 2010 Plazas, town squares, and other public spaces will be reinvented to include interactive digital-art installations. 2050 Genetic engineering will take hold. Expect the creation and replication of creatures large and small. MIT AI Laboratory 2005 Robotic products such as cleaning machines, priced in the $100 to $200 range, will be common in many homes. They will be controlled via the Web. 2010 Advanced personal robots will appear, as will robot-assisted surgery. People will accept robotics in their bodies. 2050 Scientists will have precise digital control of cells. Biological robots will enhance the performance of the human body. Starlab 2005 Artificial limbs will interface with the human brain. Eye transplants will appear. Home appliances will recognize emotions and adjust accordingly. 2010 Customized medicine will be based on our individual genetic makeup. Genes will be used as a form of identification. 2050 Scientists will be much further along in their attempts to directly engineer nanoscale machines. These predictions demonstrate the wide effect derived from technological advances. We also note a special issue of Communications of the ACM [35], entitled “The next 1000 years,” which contains essays by leading industry experts and scientists on their views on the next millennium. It includes a mix of networked technologies and tools, software that anticipates users’ needs, digital immortality, cyborgs and cyberwear, and the warning that many of our dreams will not be realized if we do not address our educational weaknesses.
Summary
This paper has illustrated a number of interesting technologies, current, emerging, and futuristic, together with predictions, providing a glimpse of what the future can bring and how it may affect our lives and our world. Predicting long-term effects of computers is both difficult and easy since we probably will not get it right but we also will not see ourselves proved wrong. As we travel this wonderful road of innovation and change, let us keep in mind the possible difficulties and challenges that lie ahead as a result of those changes, from technological, sociological, and economical aspects. Let us not allow those challenges to
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deter us from embracing new technology and exciting changes. However, let us make a concerted effort to continually evaluate the impact of those changes and related risks, and anticipate future effects. We must maximize the benefits and minimize the harm for ourselves, our community, and the world.
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Maria H. Penedo is a TRW Systems Technical Fellow and a senior staff engineer/scientist in TRW’s Tactical Systems Division (TSD). She is currently the principal investigator for the Independent Research and Development “Planning/ Dynamic Replanning” project and is a core member of the TSD Science Board. She has been a leader at TRW for the past 20 years in the design, insertion, and use of software engineering and information technology, especially in the areas of process-based environments, architectures, collaboration, and agents. She has led TRW toward a “virtual enterprise” by identifying and developing technology in support of the paradigm of “distributed team collaboration from mobile desktops.” She is currently an editor of Wiley’s Software Process: Improvement and Practice Journal. She holds a BS in mathematics and an MS in computer science from the Catholic University (PUC) in Brazil, and a PhD in computer science from the University of California, Los Angeles. [email protected]
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