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FLORIDA PRIMARY 2012
POSTED BY EIZ ON THURSDAY, 19 JANUARY, 2012, 7:14 AM
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Florida-Primary-2012.png TAMPA, FL - JANUARY 31: Ray Roy sets up a polling station as they prepare for voters on primary day on January 31, 2012 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney enters election day with a clear ... Share |
FLORIDA PRIMARY 2012
POSTED BY EIZ ON THURSDAY, 19 JANUARY, 2012, 7:14 AM
TAMPA, FL - JANUARY 31: Ray Roy sets up a polling station as they prepare for voters on primary day on January 31, 2012 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney enters election day with a clear polling lead although former House Speaker Newt Gingrich pledged this morning that “I’m not going to lose big in Florida.”
Most precincts — 94 percent, actually — close at 7 p.m. eastern time while a handful of polling places in the state’s Panhandle region close at 8 p.m.
Given the size and complexity of the Florida electorate, we polled a bunch of Sunshine State Republican strategists in search of the five counties they will be watching as leading indicators of not only who will win tonight but also of how the swing state is trending heading into the general election.
Their picks — plus a smattering of our own sense and that of the Twitterverse — produced what we think is a great CliffsNotes version of where to watch as ballots start to get counted tonight. Our five counties to watch are below — and listed in alphabetical order.
(And at the bottom is a special bonus: county-by-county results from the 2008 race, in which John McCain beat Romney 36 percent to 31 percent. Included in the chart are how much Romney won or lost each county by, and our projections for how well he needs to do in each county in order to win.)
* Brevard: If there is a county where Gingrich’s pledge to have a permanent colony on the moon by the end of his second term will resonate, it’s this one where Cape Canaveral is located. Cuts to NASA plus a large tea party contingent means that Brevard could be the epicenter of conservative anger (and turnout) both today and in the fall. In the 2008 Florida Republican presidential primary, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.)beat Romney by 5 points in Brevard, which mirrored his statewide margin. In the fall election, McCain beat then Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.)
* Duval: This Jacksonville-centered country is home to voters who are, in the words of one veteran Florida operative, “more like a Georgian than a Floridian”. It’s culturally conservative and big — one Florida strategist estimated that 10 percent of the GOP primary vote will come from the Jacksonville
Florida Primary 2012 Home Privacy Archive
FLORIDA PRIMARY 2012
POSTED BY EIZ ON THURSDAY, 19 JANUARY, 2012, 7:14 AM
GO
Florida-Primary-2012.png TAMPA, FL - JANUARY 31: Ray Roy sets up a polling station as they prepare for voters on primary day on January 31, 2012 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney enters election day with a clear ... Share |
FLORIDA PRIMARY 2012
POSTED BY EIZ ON THURSDAY, 19 JANUARY, 2012, 7:14 AM
TAMPA, FL - JANUARY 31: Ray Roy sets up a polling station as they prepare for voters on primary day on January 31, 2012 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney enters election day with a clear polling lead although former House Speaker Newt Gingrich pledged this morning that “I’m not going to lose big in Florida.”
Most precincts — 94 percent, actually — close at 7 p.m. eastern time while a handful of polling places in the state’s Panhandle region close at 8 p.m.
Given the size and complexity of the Florida electorate, we polled a bunch of Sunshine State Republican strategists in search of the five counties they will be watching as leading indicators of not only who will win tonight but also of how the swing state is trending heading into the general election.
Their picks — plus a smattering of our own sense and that of the Twitterverse — produced what we think is a great CliffsNotes version of where to watch as ballots start to get counted tonight. Our five counties to watch are below — and listed in alphabetical order.
(And at the bottom is a special bonus: county-by-county results from the 2008 race, in which John McCain beat Romney 36 percent to 31 percent. Included in the chart are how much Romney won or lost each county by, and our projections for how well he needs to do in each county in order to win.)
* Brevard: If there is a county where Gingrich’s pledge to have a permanent colony on the moon by the end of his second term will resonate, it’s this one where Cape Canaveral is located. Cuts to NASA plus a large tea party contingent means that Brevard could be the epicenter of conservative anger (and turnout) both today and in the fall. In the 2008 Florida Republican presidential primary, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.)beat Romney by 5 points in Brevard, which mirrored his statewide margin. In the fall election, McCain beat then Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.)
* Duval: This Jacksonville-centered country is home to voters who are, in the words of one veteran Florida operative, “more like a Georgian than a Floridian”. It’s culturally conservative and big — one Florida strategist estimated that 10 percent of the GOP primary vote will come from the Jacksonville
