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Global Tourism Opportunities Research Study February 2009
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Contents Background and research methodology Executive summary The Canadian and Ontario tourism markets Key research topics Global trends Success measures Niche products Emerging markets Appendix A: Glossary of terms
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Background
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Background
• Tourism is experiencing change around the world as the competition for tourist dollars intensifies. intensifies. Ontario Ontario has and address competitive forces from emerging markets, economic factors, and the develop of new tourism pro continue to influence tourism trends and behaviours moving forward.
• In addition to the threat of emerging markets, Ontario Ontario faces a number of other factors factors that have notable impa in the province; some of the more prevalent factors include: – The str streng ength th of of the the Cana Canadia dian n dolla dollar; r; – A sl slow owing ing U. U.S. S. ec econ onom omy; y; – Es Esca cala lati ting ng en ener ergy gy pr pric ices es;; – Confu Confusion sion over over new border documen documentati tation on and passp passport ort requiremen requirements; ts; – Inc Increa reased sed bord border er secu securit rity y meas measures ures;; – Percei Perceived ved tiredness tiredness of Ontari Ontario’s o’s tourism tourism product, product, as some some studies studies indicate; indicate; and and – A rapid rapid declin decline e of visit visitors ors comi coming ng from from the the U.S. U.S.
Ontario’s Ontario’s response response
“In indu stry landscape chan ged dramatically “In recent recent years, years, the the tourism tourism industry industry industry landscape has has changed changed changed dramatically and and itit is is facing facing significant facing significan challenges, which is why we have launched Ontario’s first Tourism Competitiveness Study. challenges, which is why we have launched Ontario’s first Tourism Competitiveness Study. The The goal goal o
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Global opportunities research scope
The intent of this report is to draw relevant findings from the key topic areas listed below, and identify potential i Ontario in the global tourism market. Topic area
Scope
1 Global trends and drivers
• Identification and review of current global trends, their drivers, and change within the industry. • Discussion of the potential impact of global trends and drivers on Ontari given to the province’s relative competitiveness.
2 Success measures
• Identification of key tourism measurements that are used globally by indus government to measure success and competitiveness of the tourism sector • Provide direction for Ontario with respect to data sources and costs for fu
3 • Conduct an assessment of current trends and innovations in niche touris
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Research methodology
• Secondary research was conducted to identify trends currently seen and expec global tourism industry, success measures, niche products, and emerging mark
• Primary interviews were conducted to complement secondary research by prov on the applicability of initial findings to Ontario.
• Status updates and discussions on draft research findings were held with OTCS members for initial input and guidance. • Deloitte analysis further added to knowledge obtained from primary and secon sources.
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Executive summary
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Executive summary: global trends Key observations
•
Global tourism is a US$733 billion market, with expected annual growth of 4.1% into 2020.
•
The Asia-Pacific region will lead growth, thereby capturing market share from other destinations.
•
Disposable incomes are increasing worldwide and are fuelling travel growth. However, this growth is being partly offset by the current economic slowdown (namely in the US).
•
Increasingly accessible air travel is driving visits to long-haul destinations. Airport infrastructure and destination access are paramount for successful regional tourism growth.
•
The global traveler is more concerned with brand and experience-based travel. Destinations are adopting promotional strategies in this regard.
Insights for Ontario
•
The addressable global tourism marke growing; Ontario’s future marketing considerations should seek to include new tourist source markets.
•
Emerging market growth at the expen market share of traditional destinations s the need for Ontario to compete more int for international tourists, especially in ligh current US economic slowdown. Increasi competition also suggests the need for w class product and a more distinct experie based offering.
•
With increasing affinity for long-haul tr is potential for Ontario to attract visitors distant locations, thereby increasing inter arrivals and receipts.
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Tourism operators use both industry-specific and more general business performance metrics to measure success.
•
Ontario currently uses metrics for repor purposes, but could consider using curren new metrics for goal-setting.
•
Common industry-specific metrics include tourist arrivals, receipts, spend, and length of stay.
•
•
Business performance metrics can help to gauge the health of the industry.
New performance metrics such as custom satisfaction and loyalty have been sugges Such measures would require new means information gathering and evaluation.
• •
The Location Quotient, National Quality Institute’s Framework for Success, and the Adventure Travel Development Index are new and innovative measures of tourism performance.
A broad range of metrics have been id and are available to the province. Adopti should be driven by specific goals and across the sector.
•
The World Economic Forum’s (WEF) competitiveness and air transport infrastructure scores appear to be correlated with higher
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The consumer need for experienced-based travel suggests ongoing growth in niche products. For instance, substantial growth is expected in medical tourism in coming years, with India leading the way. Environmental and other special interest tourism will also experience strong global growth.
•
Efforts have been made to creatively repackage or remarket offerings, as well as develop innovative new products.
•
Examples of niche products include: – Charity tourism; – Medical tourism; – Adventure tourism; – Ecotourism;
Insights for Ontario
•
The growth and increasing competition niche products suggests the need for Ont be selective in its product development a promotion strategy.
•
Many have suggested that Ontario has t strongest potential to develop and promo products leveraging the province’s natura environment. Much of Ontario’s current p is considered dated and uncompetitive. opportunities have been identified across golf, and culinary tourism.
•
Successful promotion will prove paramo any niche product development.
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Emerging markets will realize greater inbound and outbound growth compared to established tourism destinations.
•
Emerging markets are investing significantly in tourism infrastructure and new product development. Such investments are fuelling competition among destinations.
•
•
•
Insights for Ontario
•
Attaining approved destination status (A China is critically important for Ontario.
•
Ontario should benefit by emphasizing its environment to these high-population nat
•
Highest-growth markets for inbound and outbound tourists are China and India. China is expected to become the number one destination for international visitors.
It has been suggested that new produc development and investment are strongly to effectively compete with emerging mar
•
Tourists from many emerging markets are interested in visiting Canada in the near future, and travel to Canada from China, India, Mexico, and South Korea is expected to grow.
Increasing awareness, while developing destination brand backed by a competitiv product offering, will prove to be critical t attracting travelers from emerging marke
•
Destination access and transportation infrastructure are vital and must be in pla emerging market growth is to be capture
The tourism markets in Russia and Brazil have
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The Canadian and Ontario tourism mar
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Global tourism is forecasted to generate $13 tr between 2007 and 2017
Top tourism spenders, 200
Spending by industry and government on tourism Total
(US$ billion
1 Germany
74
2 United States
72
3 United Kingdom
63
4 France
32
5 Japan
26
6 China
24
7 Italy
32
8 Canada
20
9 Russia
18
10 Korea Source: WTO Tourism Highlights 2008, Deloitte analysis Note: Future receipts growth rate assumed constant at 6.5%
18 Source:
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China will lead global tourism industry growth, rivaling the United States in size by 2018 Economies to watch On an absolute scale
On an employment scale
Countries expected to generate the largest volume of total (domestic and international) travel and tourism demand* in 2008
Countries expected to generate the largest amount (in absolute terms) of travel and tourism economy employment
On a relative
Travel and tourism demand, 2008
Travel and tourism economy employment, 2008 (‘000 jobs)
Countries expected to grow the international) travel and tourism between 2008 an
Travel and tourism dema (% annualized rea
US$ billions % of GDP
1
USA
1,747.5
10.2
1
China
74,498
1
India
2
China
592.0
12.2
2
India
30,491
2
China
3
Japan
514.3
10.1
3
USA
14,933
3
Libya
4
Germany
505.7
10.0
4
Japan
6,833
4
Vietnam
5
France
418.8
10.9
5
Mexico
6,633
5
Montenegro
6
UK
403.7
9.1
6
Indonesia
5,936
6
Romania
7
Spain
338.2
18.2
7
Brazil
5,500
7
Macau
8
Italy
302.9
10.2
8
Vietnam
4,891
8
Namibia
9
Canada
231.4
11.0
9
Russia
4,126
9
Croatia
10
Mexico
157.6
14.3
10
Thailand
3,911
10
Czech Republic
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Traditional European destinations are losing m share to emerging markets
Source:
Key insights
• Asia Pacific’s share of the global tourism market increased by 22% between 2000 and 2006, and is exp additional 35% by 2020. 1 –
India and China drive much of this growth, and are expected to capture 15% of the global air pas forecasted by 2010, which translates to 105 of the 700 million additional passengers. 2
These increases are largely caused by the increasing traveler preference to visit exotic locations, an
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The aging population represents an affluent demographic with a greater propensity to trave Who are they?
• ‘Type A’ personalities that expect to be catered to, listened to, and see life as a game that must be won at all costs.
What do they want?
•
Travel and leisure activities for tho aged 55 and above represent the nex threshold, with spending approaching $200 billion.1
•
• Affluent: those over age 55 hold 65% of household wealth.1
Preference for age-neutral and inc travel offerings geared for healthy lifestyles, exercise, luxury, and imag
•
• Bold and ready to see the world: 77% consider their own travel experiences more adventurous than those of their parents. 1
Eco and adventure tourism are grow more rapidly than other products due this segment’s demand.
•
Growing interest in leisure activitie golf and gardening and the rise of retirement cities will be in high dema
• Believers in continuous self improvement, seeking luxury and the service that is expected with it.
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Considerations for Ontario based on changes in global marketplace • Global tourism is a US$733 billion market.
Growth and increasing competition
• Ontario is expected to lag behind global growth terms of tourist arrivals and receipts.
• Competition has intensified due to the numbe destinations increasing, and significant investme flowing into new markets.
• The global tourist is more concerned with expe and event-based travel.
Tourist preferences
• Access to travel services/products through te has increased in usage and significance. • Sustainable destinations (those that will attrac over the long-term) and strong tourism brands key success factors.
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Success measures
Key performance indicators are essential for the tourism industry to measure its success, whether as a whole or operators. The diagram below illustrates various components that Ontario could consider when developing its too success measures.
Analysis of Ontario’s tourism performance statistics
Well-rounded performance asse Context for performance assessment
•
Tourism indicators
– An industry perspective via tourism indicators – A “company” perspective through general bus assess health and sustainability;
Measurement of traditional tourism-specific measures, such as arrivals and receipts
– A product perspective from analyzing product •
General business performance measures Metrics related to overall industry health, such as those that gauge loyalty or the quality of customer service
The three categories of success measures allow understand its performance on three different levels
The reflection of qualitative and quantitative info enhance the comprehensiveness of success measur
Milestone development
•
Devising key milestones will help Ontario to me and these success measures will prove to be critica reaching targets: – Many success measures may roll into one over ultimately double tourism receipts in a specified
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A look at competitiveness from the World Econ Forum (WEF) • The WEF measures national tourism competitiveness based on 14 pillars.* • The overall travel and tourism competitiveness index (TTCI) scores appear to correlate with tourism arrivals and receipts. • A strong correlation appears to exist with air transport infrastructure and overall tourism receipts. – Primary research indicates that connectivity between airports and tourist activities is key; Toronto’s Pearson airport may be more attractive with a l ink to the downtown. • Some anomalies exist in that select pillars do not exhibit any relationship with tourism arrivals or receipts; thus, care should be taken in extending any broad relationships. – For example, safety and security scores have a slight negative correlation with growth in tourism arrivals; this is indicative of the emerging tendency for travelers to visit non-traditional destinations that may be perceived as unsafe. – When considering using the WEF conventions for performance measurement, pillars could be tailored to better reflect tourism issues versus social issues. • Ontario can aim to boost its overall arrivals and receipts by selectively setting goals related to pillars or their components. *NOTE: See appendix D for list of pillars.
TTCI rankings, 2008 Rank
Country
Score
1
Switzerland
5.63
2
Austria
5.43
3
Germany
5.41
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Metrics can be selected to align with the Study objectives and themes Tourist arrivals
The Industry
The Market
√
√
√
√
√ √
Flights per day Tourism receipts
√
√
Tourism receipts per arrival / tourist spend
√
√
Length of stay
The People
The Product
√
Government spending on tourism (% of GDP)
√
Tourism employment
√
Occupancy rates
√
Growth in number of hotels
√
Premier-ranked destinations (PRD) criteria
√
√
Elimination of problems
√
√
√ √
The Sto
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The Ontario market appears to be well suited f MICE and festival tourism Description Charity tourism
Health and wellness tourism
Medical tourism
Meetings, incentives, conferences,
Examples
Global market size (annual basis)
Trips taken to destinations for t he purpose of assisting host communities by providing services that help in everyday life or aid to disaster areas. Often taken by ‘gap year’ students, especially from North America, Western Europe, New Zealand, and Australia.
Habitat for Humanity housing construction in African villages, Doctors without Borders.
involve participation in charity tourism1
Any trip taken with the purpose of improving one’s health or well-being. Greatest potential with 50-65 year-old age group, specifically women.
Spa visits, medical treatments, or beauty procedures such as plastic surgery at low-cost Mexican clinics.
Traveling to seek specialized or economical medical care, wellbeing, and recuperation. Popular destinations include Mexico, India, Brazil, and Gulf States.
Dental and cosmetic surgery in Mexico at 25-35% of U.S. cost.2
Business travel for meetings, incentives, conventions, and exhibitions (MICE). Tourists often middle-aged males. Russia,
Malaysia’s Meet and Experience campaign.
250,000 trips
approximately 5 million trips centre around health and wellness 1
US$60 billion of global tourism receipts are from medical tourism1
US$30 billion or 50 million trips
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Ontario has the potential to be competitive acr many niche product offerings
Secondary research, supplemented by insight from subject matter experts suggests varying current success and potential across various niche Current state
Potential
Rationale
Charity tourism
Emerging markets and third world countries will receive greater pr
Health and wellness tourism
Mixed success driven by growth in Spas and other wellness produc
Medical tourism
Considered an underdeveloped offering due to a lack of packaging Stringent government regulation will impact competitiveness and
MICE
Toronto serves as a strong North American and international hub, transportation infrastructure is considered a current deterrent.
Festival tourism
Strong product offering and potential, but currently limited to sum
Cultural tourism
Product considered competitive, but a lack of new product exists.
Weddings and honeymoons
Traditional product, Perception of Niagara Falls and resort weddin
Ecotourism
Emerging markets and more exotic locals are considered more com greater potential. Potential exists to leverage natural environmen fresh water lakes.
Sports tourism
Infrastructure considered a deterrent.
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Of the select group of countries examined, Chin leads international tourist arrivals and receipts
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Brazil, China, India, and Mexico represent grow markets interested in Canadian tourism offerin Country Brazil
Competitive insight
The tourism industry is underdeveloped, but is in the process of using investment dollars to increase Brazil’s air transport network and build tourism infrastructure. Tourism activities are growing at twice the global average, and there is potential for the country to expand its market share beyond the current low level.
Opportunities for Ontario
Outbound travel market expected to grow by 2011; Ontario may aim to capture some of this
As the most price-competitive market, Brazil’s can lend to Ontario in learning how to improve offering.
China
The tourism industry has received substantial foreign investment, and is improving its international profile by hosting international events.
Potential to be one of the world’s largest touri markets, with many interested in visiting Onta must ensure marketing initiatives are effective Canada achieves approved destination status f Chinese government.
India
One of the fastest growing markets, with high receipts per tourist arrival. Seasonal travel is smoothed out with business tourism.
Ontario can learn from India’s business tourism to smooth out its own seasonal travel to comp province’s own initiatives, as well as learn from strategies to earn more revenue per tourist arr
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GeoAsian Brochure
The Great Canadian Bucket
Rabang Thesis
Tourism a Intercultu
Ontario can improve its tourism offering by ada competitive strategies employed in other mark Country Russia
South Korea
Competitive insight
Opportunities for Onta
Investment in infrastructure is key to future tourism growth, which is being facilitated with government incentives.
Like Russia, Ontario also needs to develop a attractive brand; the province should keep upcoming Russian strategies to adapt dome
The industry is current challenged with developing an attractive and cohesive Russian brand, overcoming negative tourist perceptions.
As incomes increase, Russians are traveling increasing rate, and are one of the highest t spenders. Ontario can target these high-re travelers;.
Government involvement in the industry establishes high growth goals and executes through public investment and financial incentives. Tourist arrivals targeted at 10 million by 2012, representing growth of over 50% from 2007.
Strong economic growth and rising wealth h increasing outbound travel numbers. South very connected, suggesting that Ontario use communications and advertising medium.
South Koreans also visit Canada in the winte Ontario incentive to promote seasonal desti audience.
Currently, flights are at capacity bringing So Canada, suggesting that expansion may be before targeted marketing efforts.
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Appendices
GeoAsian Brochure
The Great Canadian Bucket
Rabang Thesis
Tourism a Intercultu
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Appendix A: Glossary of terms ADS: Approved destination status ATDI: Adventure tourism development index Average room rate: Revenue divided by the number of rooms sold DMO: Destination marketing organization LQ: Location quotient MOT: Ontario Ministry of Tourism MICE: Meetings, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions NQI: National Quality Institute OTMPC: Ontario Tourism Marketing Partnership Corporation OTCS/The Study: Ontario Tourism Competitiveness Study PRD: Premier-ranked destinations RevPAR : Revenue per available room (calculated as total room revenue divided by the number of available rooms) T&T: Travel and tourism
Tourism a Intercultu
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GeoAsian Brochure
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Tourism a Intercultu
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The Great Canadian Bucket
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Tourism a Intercultu
Appendix C: Further performance measures res suggested Location Euromonitor