International Economics
Content
Indian Organic Chemical Market – An Overview Supply Demand Scenario of Organic Chemicals in India 4000 3331
3500 3000 2870
2730
2864
2500 ‘000 Tons 2000 1500
1314
1325
1412
1464
1000 500 Dema nd & Suppl y
•
•
•
0
FY09
Demand
FY10 Supply
FY11
FY12
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 1484 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% FY13
Basic Value Chain – Select Organic Feedstock (Natural Gas/Napththa) Chemicals
3564
Utilization Rate
Methanol
Acetic Acid
Formaldehyde
Phenol Formaldehyde
Utilizati on Rate
Organic chemicals are an important part of the Indian export basket – HS 29 is among the top 20 product groups in India’s exports of manufactured intermediates to the world Production of major organic chemicals has shown a significant decline due to large volume imports taking place from countries like China, resulting in low utilization rates of ~ 60%. Being an intermediate for a host of industries, demand for organic chemicals is related to the demand growth in the end user industries such as PTA, textile, pharmaceuticals, fertilizers, dyes and paints, paper,
Benzene
Urea Formaldehyde
Production shares of Major Chemicals (2013)
Pheno1
Indian Chemicals Export Split (2013)
Dye and Dye Stuffs
2% 7% 16%
Inorganic Chemicals Organic Chemicals
1%
Organic Chemicals
9% 10%
Dyes & Dyestuffs
11%
Pesticides
Pesticides Alkali Chemicals
74%
Cumene
70%
Inorganic Chemicals
Appendix
Cost Comparison – Middle East Vs. India
Key Trends & Growth Drivers – Indian Organic Chemicals Key Trends Market Trends •Focus has moved from west to east. There is an increase in M&A activities and setting up of new plants in China, Middle East and Russia. The latter two being rich in feedstock and the former being the driver of demand. •Demand for methanol based MTBE manufacturing has been declining due to environmental concerns. In the US, MTBE is getting phased-out leading to fall in methanol demand by 3 Mn tons. •Demand from new applications such as DME and bio-diesel is on the rise
Growth Drivers Technology Trends
•Increased acceptance of methanol over olefins and over propylene technologies
Regulatory Trends
•Government of India continues to provide duty protection to domestic manufacturers. For example, in case of methanol, the custom duty of 7.7% was maintained in Union Budget 201112 as was the excise duty at 10%. Along with the additional cess of 3.0 %, the effective duty protection stands at around 18 %.
Low per capita demand currently, rise in polymer demand, rise in PCPIRs
Rise in methanol & Phenol Demand
100% FDI approval for most of chemical items via automatic route
SWOT Analysis Strengths
The Indian chemical industry has skilled labor and good R&D base, with a large domestic market, alongside vibrant downside industry, catering to multiple segments
Weakness The Indian organic chemical industry comprises many players with small capacities, resulting in losses of economy of scale. The largest player in India has a capacity smaller than China’s fourth largest player.
Opportunities Consolidati Since most of on the Indian manufacturers operate on a small scale compared to global peers, there is a room for consolidation in Indian organic chemicals industry. Domestic players can take advantage of economies of scale arising from consolidation and become more competitive thereby preventing cheaper global imports.
Forward Integration
Petrochemical companies producing benzene and propylene can look for forward integration opportunity given the demandsupply deficit in phenol market. Similarly, an opportunity exists for companies with better access to natural gas supply to venture into the methanol market facing continuous supply deficit.
Wider Product Portfolio
Commodity chemicals companies can improve their product portfolio by adding specialty chemicals such as polymers additives, water treatment chemicals, lubricating additives, etc. This will help in improving their margins but requires significant R&D efforts.
Outbound Approach Even successful companies from west are shifting their base to resource rich nations like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Russia, etc. Indian organic chemical companies may also explore opportunities outside the country either through greenfield or brownfield projects.
Improved Feedstock Supply
Domestic organic chemicals players don't have the advantages of backward integration and hence, they lack pricing flexibility. However, given the new finds of natural gas reserves in the country, domestic manufacturers will be able to get supply of feedstock at stable prices.
SWOT Analysis –
• Feedstock (naphtha and natural gas)and Threats power are critical inputs for organic chemicals industry. Costs of these raw materials are high in India compared to countries like China, Middle East and other South East Asian countries such as Thailand and Indonesia. Given the poor infrastructure with lack of adequate facilities at ports and railway terminals and poor pipeline connectivity, domestic manufacturers will continue facing difficulty in procuring raw materials at a cost competitive with the global peers. • Apart from the current oversupply in global markets, there is another cause of concern for domestic manufacturers, with •further large capacity additions happening in global markets. For example, globally, methanol industry is expected to witness excess capacity in the future due to a spate of capacity additions in gas rich countries such as Middle East and Russia.
•In India, power supply has not increased at the same rate as demand, leading to interruption in the supply
Power Lack of Cheaper Raw Material Availabi lity
No Domesti c Price Discove ry
•Domestic prices of organic chemicals are highly correlated with international prices. Given the small scale of domestic operations, local manufacturers are more influenced by global demand and supply forces.
Threats
Large Global Capacit y Addition s
Low Capacit y Utilizati ons Logistic s Issues
•Due to oversupply in global markets, prices of major organic chemicals have taken a steep decline, thereby forcing the domestic companies to underutilize their plants operating levels. The average capacity utilization has fallen from > 90% in FY04 to ~60% in FY11.
• Indian bulk chemical industry is mainly concentrated in the •west in Gujarat. Though the manufacturers enjoy easy access to raw materials, they face difficulty in supplying to end-use industries which are located in southern & eastern regions
Porter’s Five Force Analysis • A vast majority of organic chemicals are critically dependent on natural gas/naphtha, a resource that India imports. Supplier power could thus be interpreted to be high.
• Given the capital intensive nature of the set up and tariff barriers, new entrants and small and medium size companies are prohibited from easily entering into the market. • However, with the government approving 100% FDI through the automatic route, the industry could witness international entrants
Supplier Power
Threat of Substitutes
• Organic chemicals, as an industry cannot find easy substitutes, since they have diverse end use segments. Substituting the organic chemical industry, as a threat, thus, doesn’t manifest as high.
Buyer Power
Barriers to New Entrants
Intensity of Rivalry
• The Indian organic chemical industry is fragmented, with few players. There are several small players, thus rendering the intensity of rivalry medium-high.
• Organic chemicals have end use in multiple sectors, being an intermediate for a host of industries such as PTA, textile, pharmaceuticals, fertilisers, dyes and paints, paper, resins etc. As a result, the buyer power could be termed high.
Low High
Recommendations
peeding up of PCPIR setup
Recommendations
provement of Infrastructure There is an urgent need to build better infrastructure and provide adequate power/ water to support industrial growth of chemicals. Infrastructure is inadequate with respect to safe transportation of products as well as proper goods storage and exports. Significant investments are needed in roads, railways, waterways, ports, warehouses etc. to support the overall industrial growth in India. Various levers could be explored to provide adequate infrastructure to the chemical industry : a. PPP model for building necessary infrastructure, especially for ports and roads b. Availability of finance to improve infrastructural facilities for SMEs. c. large scale infrastructure projects, especially those involving multiple states d. Pooling of common infrastructure at existing clusters
sure Feed Stock Availability There is an urgent need to build better infrastructure and provide adequate power/ water to support industrial growth of chemicals. Infrastructure is inadequate with respect to safe transportation of products as well as proper goods storage and exports. Significant investments are needed in roads, railways, waterways, ports, warehouses etc. to support the overall industrial growth in India. Various levers could be explored to provide adequate infrastructure to the chemical industry : a. PPP model for building necessary infrastructure, especially for ports and roads b. Availability of finance to improve infrastructural facilities for SMEs. c. large scale infrastructure projects, especially those involving multiple states d. Pooling of common infrastructure at existing clusters
Top 6 Exporters from 2010 to 2013 Key Insight
50000000
United State emerges as the top exporter, closely followed by China and Belgium
45000000 40000000 35000000 30000000 25000000 20000000 15000000 10000000 5000000 0 United States of America
China
Belgium
Germany
Ireland
Japan
Top Importers of Organic Chemicals 199993692052631118989894 France16952916
17734660 17698369 19451836 Netherlands13573307
Germany
28701359
Belgium
30296188
United States of America
48903519
China
48263067
0
34850789
33172056
36731792
35295376
33483783
37561778
57006313
63131991
50000000
Imported value in 2010
100000000
Imported value in 2011
54595483
54737678
60864293
150000000
65876608
200000000
Imported value in 2012
250000000
Imported value in 2013
300000000
China and India remain the highest importers of Organic Chemicals , implying existence of Intra Industry Trade
Relative Comparative Advantage in Organic Chemicals 450 Key Insight: 400Ireland Has had the highest RCA. However, all countries are losing their comparative advantage, which shows growth of new entrants in the industry 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
United States of America
China
Belgium 2010
Germany 2011
2012
2013
Ireland
Japan
Prospective Partners Analysis Trade Intensity Index Trade Complementarity Index
1400 1200
70
1000
60
800
50
600
40
400
30
200
20
0
Brazil
Chile
Italy 2009
Pakistan
Saudi Arabia
2010
10 0
Saudi Arabia
Italy 2009
Trade Openness Index
Chile
Brazil
2010
Import Value Index 400
Saudi Arabia
350 300
Brazil
250 Pakistan
200 150
Italy
100 50
Chile 0
10000
20000 2010
2009
30000
40000
50000
0
BRA
CHL
ITA 2009
2010
PAK
SAU
ral trade between India and Saudi Arabia in 2013 ct: 29 Organic chemicals
Key Insight : Saudi’s demand growth in majority Demand and Supply Differential in Organic Chemicals, 2009-13 Organic chemicals far exceeds India Supply.
200
172
162 143
150
100 63
78 56
50 5
20
5
0 -5 -50
81 64
78 50
70
60 44
35
India’s Import portfolio CAGR
Top 5 countries that India Imported from 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 17.32% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00%
6000000 5000000 4000000
31.33%
36.19% 17.93%
12.53%
3000000 2000000 1000000 0
China
Singapore
Saudi Arabia
United States of America
Korea, Republic of
Reasons for growth in Imports
• Approximately 30% Imports from China alone • Imports increasing at CAGR of 18.89% from 2009 • Imports from Kuwait and Oman increasing at CAGR of approximately 70% and 100% respectively
• The import basket of India’s organic chemicals is also somewhat similar with cyclic hydrocarbons again being the top most item of imports,
India’s Export portfolio CAGR
Top 5 countries that India Exported to 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 14.28% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00%
2000000 1800000 1600000 1400000
36.34% 25.70%
23.05% 12.43%
1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0
United States of America
China
Germany
Indonesia
Malaysia
• Approximately 13% Exports to United States of America • Exports increasing at CAGR of 17.63% from 2009 • Exports CAGR of Malaysia(36.34%), Singapore(33%) and Belgium(29%) relatively on the higher side
Reasons for growth in Exports • Declining inhouse production of Organic Chemical(-2%) • Major organic chemicals produced in India include acetic acid, acetic anhydride, acetone, phenol, etc. • China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore in addition to Brazil are the markets that Indian firms need to focus on
Key Insight: Countries like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, which have been importing organic chemicals at an aggressive rate should be targeted by India
Shortlisted markets
USA China Brazil Ireland Saudi Arabia
Trade Agreements China
USA FTA STATUS
China is negotiating with 14 other regions and nations for rolling out FTAs. It is negotiating with EU for an FTA, Netherlands and France import a major chunk of organic chemicals In EU
FTA STATUS
US has FTAs with about 20 countries, Mexico being among top 10 importers of organic chemicals
COMPETITO RS
• US has FTAs with Colombia, Canada, Mexico, Costa RicaSaudi Arabia and Australia COMPETITO • China has signed FTAs with • New Zealand comes under FTA STATUS RS of Saudi Arabia Pakistan and Chile Trans Pacific PartnershipThe on kingdom has FTas with 8 countries which negotiations are going majorly, but Saudi Arabia also on Ireland enjoys the FTAs signed by GCC • US has FTAs with Mexico, FTAbeing STATUS block. Major them are –is an active EU member, Ireland Canada and Japan Italy, Japan, Germanyand thus enjoys wide benefits Brazil COMPETITO • Saudi Arabia has FTA accruing with from FTAs of EU with RS China and Belgium rest of the World Brazil has PTAs and FTAs COMPETITO Chile, Ukraine, Mexico, Canada. majorly with MERCOSUR (Egypt, RS Chile, Mexico) The wide variety of FTAs Ireland has is evidence enough why FTA with Chile and Framework Ireland tops the chart despite its Agreement with Mexico. size compared to the leader –
FTA STATUS
COMPETITO RS
India’s share in Chile’s Import
India's share in Brazil's Import
Oth ers Othe rs
Un ited Sta te s of America
Un ite d S ta tes of Americ a
China
China
Argent ina
Ge rman y In dia
Trinid ad and To bago
S witzerlan d
Brazil
Mexico
Ge rmany
France
Ind ia
Ja pan
India's share in Saudi's Import Othe rs India Korea, Re pu blic of China Unite d S tates o f America Th aila nd
India's share in Pakistan's Import s
India’s share in Italy’s Import Ot hers
Others
Belg ium
Ku wait
Switzerlan d
Ch ina
Ge rman y Ne therlan ds Chin a Fran ce India
Sa ud i Arab ia Ind ia United Arab Emirate s
Saudi's Import profile for Heterocyclic
India; 6%
Others China United States of America Ireland Germany Japan India United Kingdom
Uses of Heterocyclic Compounds Medicinal and Pharmaceutical Uses Pharma and Medical Benefits • Antibiotics • Anti inflammatory drugs • Anti Virals • Anti Depressants • Anti Anxiety • Anti Diabetic • Anti Obesity • Anti Parkinson’s • Therapeutic
Heterocyclic Compounds Annual Growth in Quantity of 7% in 2013 Annual Growth in Trade of 6% in 2013 Annual trade of $140 mn in 2013
ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK
- Mathematical expressions TECHNICAL INDICATORS
NEURON NEURON
History repeats itself
Trader decision : Optimistic, Buy Trader decision Prediction: Optimistic, Buy If I was afraid then, I would be afraid now, my trading decision would be repeating itself historically
Microsoft Excel Worksheet
3500 3000 2870
2730
2864
2500 ‘000 Tons 2000 1500
1314
1325
1412
1464
1000 500 Dema nd & Suppl y
•
•
•
0
FY09
Demand
FY10 Supply
FY11
FY12
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 1484 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% FY13
Basic Value Chain – Select Organic Feedstock (Natural Gas/Napththa) Chemicals
3564
Utilization Rate
Methanol
Acetic Acid
Formaldehyde
Phenol Formaldehyde
Utilizati on Rate
Organic chemicals are an important part of the Indian export basket – HS 29 is among the top 20 product groups in India’s exports of manufactured intermediates to the world Production of major organic chemicals has shown a significant decline due to large volume imports taking place from countries like China, resulting in low utilization rates of ~ 60%. Being an intermediate for a host of industries, demand for organic chemicals is related to the demand growth in the end user industries such as PTA, textile, pharmaceuticals, fertilizers, dyes and paints, paper,
Benzene
Urea Formaldehyde
Production shares of Major Chemicals (2013)
Pheno1
Indian Chemicals Export Split (2013)
Dye and Dye Stuffs
2% 7% 16%
Inorganic Chemicals Organic Chemicals
1%
Organic Chemicals
9% 10%
Dyes & Dyestuffs
11%
Pesticides
Pesticides Alkali Chemicals
74%
Cumene
70%
Inorganic Chemicals
Appendix
Cost Comparison – Middle East Vs. India
Key Trends & Growth Drivers – Indian Organic Chemicals Key Trends Market Trends •Focus has moved from west to east. There is an increase in M&A activities and setting up of new plants in China, Middle East and Russia. The latter two being rich in feedstock and the former being the driver of demand. •Demand for methanol based MTBE manufacturing has been declining due to environmental concerns. In the US, MTBE is getting phased-out leading to fall in methanol demand by 3 Mn tons. •Demand from new applications such as DME and bio-diesel is on the rise
Growth Drivers Technology Trends
•Increased acceptance of methanol over olefins and over propylene technologies
Regulatory Trends
•Government of India continues to provide duty protection to domestic manufacturers. For example, in case of methanol, the custom duty of 7.7% was maintained in Union Budget 201112 as was the excise duty at 10%. Along with the additional cess of 3.0 %, the effective duty protection stands at around 18 %.
Low per capita demand currently, rise in polymer demand, rise in PCPIRs
Rise in methanol & Phenol Demand
100% FDI approval for most of chemical items via automatic route
SWOT Analysis Strengths
The Indian chemical industry has skilled labor and good R&D base, with a large domestic market, alongside vibrant downside industry, catering to multiple segments
Weakness The Indian organic chemical industry comprises many players with small capacities, resulting in losses of economy of scale. The largest player in India has a capacity smaller than China’s fourth largest player.
Opportunities Consolidati Since most of on the Indian manufacturers operate on a small scale compared to global peers, there is a room for consolidation in Indian organic chemicals industry. Domestic players can take advantage of economies of scale arising from consolidation and become more competitive thereby preventing cheaper global imports.
Forward Integration
Petrochemical companies producing benzene and propylene can look for forward integration opportunity given the demandsupply deficit in phenol market. Similarly, an opportunity exists for companies with better access to natural gas supply to venture into the methanol market facing continuous supply deficit.
Wider Product Portfolio
Commodity chemicals companies can improve their product portfolio by adding specialty chemicals such as polymers additives, water treatment chemicals, lubricating additives, etc. This will help in improving their margins but requires significant R&D efforts.
Outbound Approach Even successful companies from west are shifting their base to resource rich nations like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Russia, etc. Indian organic chemical companies may also explore opportunities outside the country either through greenfield or brownfield projects.
Improved Feedstock Supply
Domestic organic chemicals players don't have the advantages of backward integration and hence, they lack pricing flexibility. However, given the new finds of natural gas reserves in the country, domestic manufacturers will be able to get supply of feedstock at stable prices.
SWOT Analysis –
• Feedstock (naphtha and natural gas)and Threats power are critical inputs for organic chemicals industry. Costs of these raw materials are high in India compared to countries like China, Middle East and other South East Asian countries such as Thailand and Indonesia. Given the poor infrastructure with lack of adequate facilities at ports and railway terminals and poor pipeline connectivity, domestic manufacturers will continue facing difficulty in procuring raw materials at a cost competitive with the global peers. • Apart from the current oversupply in global markets, there is another cause of concern for domestic manufacturers, with •further large capacity additions happening in global markets. For example, globally, methanol industry is expected to witness excess capacity in the future due to a spate of capacity additions in gas rich countries such as Middle East and Russia.
•In India, power supply has not increased at the same rate as demand, leading to interruption in the supply
Power Lack of Cheaper Raw Material Availabi lity
No Domesti c Price Discove ry
•Domestic prices of organic chemicals are highly correlated with international prices. Given the small scale of domestic operations, local manufacturers are more influenced by global demand and supply forces.
Threats
Large Global Capacit y Addition s
Low Capacit y Utilizati ons Logistic s Issues
•Due to oversupply in global markets, prices of major organic chemicals have taken a steep decline, thereby forcing the domestic companies to underutilize their plants operating levels. The average capacity utilization has fallen from > 90% in FY04 to ~60% in FY11.
• Indian bulk chemical industry is mainly concentrated in the •west in Gujarat. Though the manufacturers enjoy easy access to raw materials, they face difficulty in supplying to end-use industries which are located in southern & eastern regions
Porter’s Five Force Analysis • A vast majority of organic chemicals are critically dependent on natural gas/naphtha, a resource that India imports. Supplier power could thus be interpreted to be high.
• Given the capital intensive nature of the set up and tariff barriers, new entrants and small and medium size companies are prohibited from easily entering into the market. • However, with the government approving 100% FDI through the automatic route, the industry could witness international entrants
Supplier Power
Threat of Substitutes
• Organic chemicals, as an industry cannot find easy substitutes, since they have diverse end use segments. Substituting the organic chemical industry, as a threat, thus, doesn’t manifest as high.
Buyer Power
Barriers to New Entrants
Intensity of Rivalry
• The Indian organic chemical industry is fragmented, with few players. There are several small players, thus rendering the intensity of rivalry medium-high.
• Organic chemicals have end use in multiple sectors, being an intermediate for a host of industries such as PTA, textile, pharmaceuticals, fertilisers, dyes and paints, paper, resins etc. As a result, the buyer power could be termed high.
Low High
Recommendations
peeding up of PCPIR setup
Recommendations
provement of Infrastructure There is an urgent need to build better infrastructure and provide adequate power/ water to support industrial growth of chemicals. Infrastructure is inadequate with respect to safe transportation of products as well as proper goods storage and exports. Significant investments are needed in roads, railways, waterways, ports, warehouses etc. to support the overall industrial growth in India. Various levers could be explored to provide adequate infrastructure to the chemical industry : a. PPP model for building necessary infrastructure, especially for ports and roads b. Availability of finance to improve infrastructural facilities for SMEs. c. large scale infrastructure projects, especially those involving multiple states d. Pooling of common infrastructure at existing clusters
sure Feed Stock Availability There is an urgent need to build better infrastructure and provide adequate power/ water to support industrial growth of chemicals. Infrastructure is inadequate with respect to safe transportation of products as well as proper goods storage and exports. Significant investments are needed in roads, railways, waterways, ports, warehouses etc. to support the overall industrial growth in India. Various levers could be explored to provide adequate infrastructure to the chemical industry : a. PPP model for building necessary infrastructure, especially for ports and roads b. Availability of finance to improve infrastructural facilities for SMEs. c. large scale infrastructure projects, especially those involving multiple states d. Pooling of common infrastructure at existing clusters
Top 6 Exporters from 2010 to 2013 Key Insight
50000000
United State emerges as the top exporter, closely followed by China and Belgium
45000000 40000000 35000000 30000000 25000000 20000000 15000000 10000000 5000000 0 United States of America
China
Belgium
Germany
Ireland
Japan
Top Importers of Organic Chemicals 199993692052631118989894 France16952916
17734660 17698369 19451836 Netherlands13573307
Germany
28701359
Belgium
30296188
United States of America
48903519
China
48263067
0
34850789
33172056
36731792
35295376
33483783
37561778
57006313
63131991
50000000
Imported value in 2010
100000000
Imported value in 2011
54595483
54737678
60864293
150000000
65876608
200000000
Imported value in 2012
250000000
Imported value in 2013
300000000
China and India remain the highest importers of Organic Chemicals , implying existence of Intra Industry Trade
Relative Comparative Advantage in Organic Chemicals 450 Key Insight: 400Ireland Has had the highest RCA. However, all countries are losing their comparative advantage, which shows growth of new entrants in the industry 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
United States of America
China
Belgium 2010
Germany 2011
2012
2013
Ireland
Japan
Prospective Partners Analysis Trade Intensity Index Trade Complementarity Index
1400 1200
70
1000
60
800
50
600
40
400
30
200
20
0
Brazil
Chile
Italy 2009
Pakistan
Saudi Arabia
2010
10 0
Saudi Arabia
Italy 2009
Trade Openness Index
Chile
Brazil
2010
Import Value Index 400
Saudi Arabia
350 300
Brazil
250 Pakistan
200 150
Italy
100 50
Chile 0
10000
20000 2010
2009
30000
40000
50000
0
BRA
CHL
ITA 2009
2010
PAK
SAU
ral trade between India and Saudi Arabia in 2013 ct: 29 Organic chemicals
Key Insight : Saudi’s demand growth in majority Demand and Supply Differential in Organic Chemicals, 2009-13 Organic chemicals far exceeds India Supply.
200
172
162 143
150
100 63
78 56
50 5
20
5
0 -5 -50
81 64
78 50
70
60 44
35
India’s Import portfolio CAGR
Top 5 countries that India Imported from 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 17.32% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00%
6000000 5000000 4000000
31.33%
36.19% 17.93%
12.53%
3000000 2000000 1000000 0
China
Singapore
Saudi Arabia
United States of America
Korea, Republic of
Reasons for growth in Imports
• Approximately 30% Imports from China alone • Imports increasing at CAGR of 18.89% from 2009 • Imports from Kuwait and Oman increasing at CAGR of approximately 70% and 100% respectively
• The import basket of India’s organic chemicals is also somewhat similar with cyclic hydrocarbons again being the top most item of imports,
India’s Export portfolio CAGR
Top 5 countries that India Exported to 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 14.28% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00%
2000000 1800000 1600000 1400000
36.34% 25.70%
23.05% 12.43%
1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0
United States of America
China
Germany
Indonesia
Malaysia
• Approximately 13% Exports to United States of America • Exports increasing at CAGR of 17.63% from 2009 • Exports CAGR of Malaysia(36.34%), Singapore(33%) and Belgium(29%) relatively on the higher side
Reasons for growth in Exports • Declining inhouse production of Organic Chemical(-2%) • Major organic chemicals produced in India include acetic acid, acetic anhydride, acetone, phenol, etc. • China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore in addition to Brazil are the markets that Indian firms need to focus on
Key Insight: Countries like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, which have been importing organic chemicals at an aggressive rate should be targeted by India
Shortlisted markets
USA China Brazil Ireland Saudi Arabia
Trade Agreements China
USA FTA STATUS
China is negotiating with 14 other regions and nations for rolling out FTAs. It is negotiating with EU for an FTA, Netherlands and France import a major chunk of organic chemicals In EU
FTA STATUS
US has FTAs with about 20 countries, Mexico being among top 10 importers of organic chemicals
COMPETITO RS
• US has FTAs with Colombia, Canada, Mexico, Costa RicaSaudi Arabia and Australia COMPETITO • China has signed FTAs with • New Zealand comes under FTA STATUS RS of Saudi Arabia Pakistan and Chile Trans Pacific PartnershipThe on kingdom has FTas with 8 countries which negotiations are going majorly, but Saudi Arabia also on Ireland enjoys the FTAs signed by GCC • US has FTAs with Mexico, FTAbeing STATUS block. Major them are –is an active EU member, Ireland Canada and Japan Italy, Japan, Germanyand thus enjoys wide benefits Brazil COMPETITO • Saudi Arabia has FTA accruing with from FTAs of EU with RS China and Belgium rest of the World Brazil has PTAs and FTAs COMPETITO Chile, Ukraine, Mexico, Canada. majorly with MERCOSUR (Egypt, RS Chile, Mexico) The wide variety of FTAs Ireland has is evidence enough why FTA with Chile and Framework Ireland tops the chart despite its Agreement with Mexico. size compared to the leader –
FTA STATUS
COMPETITO RS
India’s share in Chile’s Import
India's share in Brazil's Import
Oth ers Othe rs
Un ited Sta te s of America
Un ite d S ta tes of Americ a
China
China
Argent ina
Ge rman y In dia
Trinid ad and To bago
S witzerlan d
Brazil
Mexico
Ge rmany
France
Ind ia
Ja pan
India's share in Saudi's Import Othe rs India Korea, Re pu blic of China Unite d S tates o f America Th aila nd
India's share in Pakistan's Import s
India’s share in Italy’s Import Ot hers
Others
Belg ium
Ku wait
Switzerlan d
Ch ina
Ge rman y Ne therlan ds Chin a Fran ce India
Sa ud i Arab ia Ind ia United Arab Emirate s
Saudi's Import profile for Heterocyclic
India; 6%
Others China United States of America Ireland Germany Japan India United Kingdom
Uses of Heterocyclic Compounds Medicinal and Pharmaceutical Uses Pharma and Medical Benefits • Antibiotics • Anti inflammatory drugs • Anti Virals • Anti Depressants • Anti Anxiety • Anti Diabetic • Anti Obesity • Anti Parkinson’s • Therapeutic
Heterocyclic Compounds Annual Growth in Quantity of 7% in 2013 Annual Growth in Trade of 6% in 2013 Annual trade of $140 mn in 2013
ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK
- Mathematical expressions TECHNICAL INDICATORS
NEURON NEURON
History repeats itself
Trader decision : Optimistic, Buy Trader decision Prediction: Optimistic, Buy If I was afraid then, I would be afraid now, my trading decision would be repeating itself historically
Microsoft Excel Worksheet
