Iowa Poll: Democrat results
Content
THE DES MOINES REGISTER/ BLOOMBERG POLITICS IOWA POLL
SELZER & COMPANY
437 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Compared to 402 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.7 percentage points for Democrats
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
Study #2118
May 25-29, 2015
4,161 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
About the Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted May 25-29 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des
Moines, Iowa, is based on telephone interviews with 437 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will
attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses and 402 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016
Republican caucuses.
Interviewers contacted 4,161 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by
telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter
registration list.
Questions based on the subsample of 437 likely Democratic caucus attendees have a maximum margin of error of plus or
minus 4.7 percentage points, and questions based on the subsample of 402 likely Republican caucus attendees have a
maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the
same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown
here by more than plus or minus 4.7 or 4.9 percentage points, respectively. Results based on smaller samples of
respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.
Poll Questions
BASED ON DEMOCRATIC CAUCUSGOERS
PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.
Are you a resident of the state of Iowa and registered to vote here?
100
-
Yes
No
Not sure
Continue
Terminate
How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2016—will you definitely attend,
probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the
Democratic or the Republican caucus?
39
61
-
Definitely attend Democratic caucus
Probably attend Democratic caucus
Definitely attend Republican caucus
Probably attend Republican caucus
Probably not attend a caucus
Don’t know which caucus will attend
Not sure
Continue
Terminate
Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a
Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus or both?
3
68
9
18
1
Attended Republican caucus in the past
Attended Democratic caucus in the past
Attended both
First caucus
Not sure
Now, I’m going to mention some prominent Democrats, including people talked about as possible candidates for
the Democratic nomination for president. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly
favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know enough about the person to answer, just say
so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list, but Obama always goes first.)
Fav
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
G.
Unf
Very
Favorable
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
Barack Obama, president of the United
States
May-15
Jan-15
89
9
49
40
6
3
2
86
13
49
37
5
8
1
Joe Biden, vice president of the United
States
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
76
20
22
54
14
6
4
78
60
20
34
25
15
53
45
14
19
6
15
2
6
Hillary Clinton, former secretary of state
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
86*
12*
39
46
7
6
2
84
76
15
19
46
43
38
33
7
8
8
11
1
5
Martin O’Malley, former governor of
Maryland
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
20*
8
4
17
5
3
72
13
13
9
9
2
2
11
11
6
7
3
2
78
78
Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from
Vermont
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
47
12
23
24
8
4
41
37
29
12
13
17
10
20
19
8
8
4
5
51
58
Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from
Massachusetts
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
62
9
31
31
6
3
28
58
44
11
11
30
23
28
21
6
6
5
5
31
45
Jim Webb, former U.S. senator from
Virginia
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
22
3
19
7
3
69
3
1
18
15
8
8
3
4
68
72
21
16
9*
11
12
*We are most confident that the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the
best estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly
favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If “Uncommitted” or Not sure in first choice, code second choice as
No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)
First
Second
Combined
8
57
2
16
2
31
15
3
13
5
39
72
5*
29
7
6
6
12
Not sure
8
13
No first choice
N/A
14
*“Combined” does not match the following ever/never support question for certain candidates due to rounding.
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If “Uncommitted” or Not sure in first choice, code second choice as
No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
First
Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)
Not sure
No first choice
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Second
Combined
8
31
39
9
9
26
19
35
28
57
15
72
56
53
15
15
71
68
2
3
5*
1
-
3
1
4
1
16
13
29
5
3
6
4
11
7
2
5
7
3
1
6
2
9
3
6
6
12
4
3
3
N/A
8
13
6
12
8
5
N/A
14
N/A
N/A
10
15
*“Combined” does not match the following ever/never support question for certain candidates due to rounding.
(Ask only for each candidate NOT answered as first or second choice in horserace.] I’m going to mention the
Democrats who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the
person for president or would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same
rotation as horserace question. If selected as first or second choice in horserace, code AC=4 and do not ask.)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
Ever
Never
Not sure
1st or 2nd
choice in
Q.6a/b
37
16
34
23
32
15
9
13
18
13
10
3
48
30
47
39
72
6
29
7
Rotate next two questions.
Regardless of whom you plan to support in the Democratic caucuses, who better represents your political
beliefs, Hillary Clinton or Elizabeth Warren?
Hillary
Clinton
May-15
Oct-14
Elizabeth
Warren
Neither
(VOL)
Not
sure
48
37
3
12
52
26
4
18
Regardless of whom you plan to support in the Democratic caucuses, who better represents your political
beliefs, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders?
Hillary
Clinton
May-15
58
Bernie
Sanders
26
Neither
(VOL)
3
Not
sure
13
I’m going to mention things about Hillary Clinton that have been in the news recently. For each, please tell me
if this is something that bothers you or not—just answer yes or no. (Rotate list.)
I’m going to mention those news items again. This time, please tell me if you think this will or will not hurt
Hillary Clinton in the general election if she is the nominee. Just answer yes or no. (Mark all yeses. Multiple
responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.)
A.
B.
C.
She kept a private email server and deleted emails she
did not consider related to her service as secretary of
state
How she handled the attacks in Benghazi and the
aftermath
The Clinton Foundation, founded by Bill Clinton,
accepted contributions from foreign governments when
she was secretary of state
None of these/not sure
Not
Sure
Will hurt in
general
election
Bothers
Does not
bother
20
78
2
41
20
73
8
39
27
70
3
37
34
[Ask all.]
When you think about the controversies surrounding Bill and Hillary Clinton, do you tend to think they just get
a bad rap, or do you think they have shown a pattern of unethical behavior? (Rotate answer options.)
71
14
14
Bad rap
Have shown a pattern of unethical behavior
Not sure
SELZER & COMPANY
437 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Compared to 402 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.7 percentage points for Democrats
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
Study #2118
May 25-29, 2015
4,161 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
About the Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted May 25-29 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des
Moines, Iowa, is based on telephone interviews with 437 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will
attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses and 402 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016
Republican caucuses.
Interviewers contacted 4,161 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by
telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter
registration list.
Questions based on the subsample of 437 likely Democratic caucus attendees have a maximum margin of error of plus or
minus 4.7 percentage points, and questions based on the subsample of 402 likely Republican caucus attendees have a
maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the
same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown
here by more than plus or minus 4.7 or 4.9 percentage points, respectively. Results based on smaller samples of
respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.
Poll Questions
BASED ON DEMOCRATIC CAUCUSGOERS
PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.
Are you a resident of the state of Iowa and registered to vote here?
100
-
Yes
No
Not sure
Continue
Terminate
How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2016—will you definitely attend,
probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the
Democratic or the Republican caucus?
39
61
-
Definitely attend Democratic caucus
Probably attend Democratic caucus
Definitely attend Republican caucus
Probably attend Republican caucus
Probably not attend a caucus
Don’t know which caucus will attend
Not sure
Continue
Terminate
Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a
Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus or both?
3
68
9
18
1
Attended Republican caucus in the past
Attended Democratic caucus in the past
Attended both
First caucus
Not sure
Now, I’m going to mention some prominent Democrats, including people talked about as possible candidates for
the Democratic nomination for president. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly
favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know enough about the person to answer, just say
so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list, but Obama always goes first.)
Fav
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
G.
Unf
Very
Favorable
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
Barack Obama, president of the United
States
May-15
Jan-15
89
9
49
40
6
3
2
86
13
49
37
5
8
1
Joe Biden, vice president of the United
States
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
76
20
22
54
14
6
4
78
60
20
34
25
15
53
45
14
19
6
15
2
6
Hillary Clinton, former secretary of state
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
86*
12*
39
46
7
6
2
84
76
15
19
46
43
38
33
7
8
8
11
1
5
Martin O’Malley, former governor of
Maryland
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
20*
8
4
17
5
3
72
13
13
9
9
2
2
11
11
6
7
3
2
78
78
Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from
Vermont
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
47
12
23
24
8
4
41
37
29
12
13
17
10
20
19
8
8
4
5
51
58
Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from
Massachusetts
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
62
9
31
31
6
3
28
58
44
11
11
30
23
28
21
6
6
5
5
31
45
Jim Webb, former U.S. senator from
Virginia
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
22
3
19
7
3
69
3
1
18
15
8
8
3
4
68
72
21
16
9*
11
12
*We are most confident that the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the
best estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly
favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If “Uncommitted” or Not sure in first choice, code second choice as
No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)
First
Second
Combined
8
57
2
16
2
31
15
3
13
5
39
72
5*
29
7
6
6
12
Not sure
8
13
No first choice
N/A
14
*“Combined” does not match the following ever/never support question for certain candidates due to rounding.
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If “Uncommitted” or Not sure in first choice, code second choice as
No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
First
Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)
Not sure
No first choice
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Second
Combined
8
31
39
9
9
26
19
35
28
57
15
72
56
53
15
15
71
68
2
3
5*
1
-
3
1
4
1
16
13
29
5
3
6
4
11
7
2
5
7
3
1
6
2
9
3
6
6
12
4
3
3
N/A
8
13
6
12
8
5
N/A
14
N/A
N/A
10
15
*“Combined” does not match the following ever/never support question for certain candidates due to rounding.
(Ask only for each candidate NOT answered as first or second choice in horserace.] I’m going to mention the
Democrats who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the
person for president or would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same
rotation as horserace question. If selected as first or second choice in horserace, code AC=4 and do not ask.)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
Ever
Never
Not sure
1st or 2nd
choice in
Q.6a/b
37
16
34
23
32
15
9
13
18
13
10
3
48
30
47
39
72
6
29
7
Rotate next two questions.
Regardless of whom you plan to support in the Democratic caucuses, who better represents your political
beliefs, Hillary Clinton or Elizabeth Warren?
Hillary
Clinton
May-15
Oct-14
Elizabeth
Warren
Neither
(VOL)
Not
sure
48
37
3
12
52
26
4
18
Regardless of whom you plan to support in the Democratic caucuses, who better represents your political
beliefs, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders?
Hillary
Clinton
May-15
58
Bernie
Sanders
26
Neither
(VOL)
3
Not
sure
13
I’m going to mention things about Hillary Clinton that have been in the news recently. For each, please tell me
if this is something that bothers you or not—just answer yes or no. (Rotate list.)
I’m going to mention those news items again. This time, please tell me if you think this will or will not hurt
Hillary Clinton in the general election if she is the nominee. Just answer yes or no. (Mark all yeses. Multiple
responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.)
A.
B.
C.
She kept a private email server and deleted emails she
did not consider related to her service as secretary of
state
How she handled the attacks in Benghazi and the
aftermath
The Clinton Foundation, founded by Bill Clinton,
accepted contributions from foreign governments when
she was secretary of state
None of these/not sure
Not
Sure
Will hurt in
general
election
Bothers
Does not
bother
20
78
2
41
20
73
8
39
27
70
3
37
34
[Ask all.]
When you think about the controversies surrounding Bill and Hillary Clinton, do you tend to think they just get
a bad rap, or do you think they have shown a pattern of unethical behavior? (Rotate answer options.)
71
14
14
Bad rap
Have shown a pattern of unethical behavior
Not sure
