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Low Risk High Reward Trade Setups
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Low Risk High Reward Trade Setups
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IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made t at t e use o! t is strateg" or an" s"stem or trading met odo#og" wi## generate pro!its. Past per!ormance is not necessari#" indicati$e o! !uture resu#ts. T ere is substantia# ris% o! #oss associated wit trading securities and options on e&uities. On#" ris% capita# s ou#d be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitab#e !or e$er"one. 'isc#aimer( )utures* Options* and Currenc" trading a## a$e #arge potentia# rewards* but t e" a#so a$e #arge potentia# ris%. +ou must be aware o! t e ris%s and be wi##ing to accept t em in order to in$est in t ese mar%ets. 'on,t trade wit mone" "ou can,t a!!ord to #ose. T is website is neit er a so#icitation nor an o!!er to -u".Se## !utures* options* or currencies. No representation is being made t at an" account wi## or is #i%e#" to ac ie$e pro!its or #osses simi#ar to t ose discussed on t is web site. T e past per!ormance o! an" trading s"stem or met odo#og" is not necessari#" indicati$e o! !uture resu#ts. C)TC R/0E 1.12 3 H+POTHETICA0 OR SIM/0ATE' PER)ORMANCE RES/0TS HA4E CERTAIN 0IMITATIONS. /N0I5E AN ACT/A0 PER)ORMANCE RECOR'* SIM/0ATE' RES/0TS 'O NOT REPRESENT ACT/A0 TRA'IN6. A0SO* SINCE THE TRA'ES HA4E NOT -EEN E7EC/TE'* THE RES/0TS MA+ HA4E /N'ER8OR8O4ER COMPENSATE' )OR THE IMPACT* I) AN+* O) CERTAIN MAR5ET )ACTORS* S/CH AS 0AC5 O) 0I9/I'IT+. SIM/0ATE' TRA'IN6 PRO6RAMS IN 6ENERA0 ARE A0SO S/-:ECT TO THE )ACT THAT THE+ ARE 'ESI6NE' ;ITH THE -ENE)IT O) HIN'SI6HT. NO REPRESENTATION IS -EIN6 MA'E THAT AN+ ACCO/NT ;I00 OR IS 0I5E0+ TO ACHIE4E PRO)IT OR 0OSSES SIMI0AR TO THOSE SHO;N.
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Warning
We have a lot to
CO4ER
“it’s going to be fun and hopefully profitable”
You got this
&odu!e ' Stocks Swing Trades ( )a* Trades
• )a$orite wa" to Scan t e Mar%ets !or Swing trades. • -est wa" to Scan t e Mar%ets !or 'a" Trades • How to )i#ter t e trades to ta%e
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+o!!inger +ands 20,2
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-e!tner .hanne!s 20, './
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-e!tner .hanne!s 20, './
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The S0uee1e
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The S0uee1e
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The )ar2as +o3
"The system wasn't designed so that most people could beat it.“ “Most traders take a good system and destroy it by trying to make it into a perfect system.“
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)ar2as )e4inition
A trading strateg" t at was de$e#oped in 2<=> b" !ormer ba##room dancer Nico#as 'ar$as. 'ar$as? trading tec ni&ue in$o#$ed bu"ing into stoc%s t at were trading at new =@8wee% ig s wit corresponding#" ig $o#umes. In 2<=>* 'ar$as was ab#e to turn an in$estment o! A2B*BBB into A@ mi##ion o$er an 2C8mont period. ; i#e tra$e#ing !or is dancing* 'ar$as wou#d obtain copies o! The Wall Street Journal and Barron's* but e wou#d on#" #oo% at t e stoc% prices to ma%e is decisions. It as been said t at 'ar$as was #ess app" about t e pro!its t at e made t an e was about t e ease and peace o! mind t at e got !rom imp#ementing is s"stem. Source: http://www.investopedia.com
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5ride
• My pride did not let me act. The prestige of my theory was at stake. I just kept saying this stock cannot go down any further. I did not know what I learned later, that there is no such thing as cannot in the market. Any stock can do anything.-----Nicolas Darvas
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.onstructing a )a2as +o3
• http:66www.corporatedoctor.com.au6pages6omnitrader6manua!s6dar2as.pd4
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How it works
• • • • Range brea%out S"stem 0ong On#" 0ong Signa# D price o! stoc% eEceeds boE top S ort Signa# D price o! stoc% eEceeds to boE bottom • 0ong Stops bottom o! t e current -oE • S ort Stops top o! current boE
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)ar2as .!assic Ru!es
• • • • • • • Long 7n!* Screen Trades Stocks 7n!* /2 Week High ncrease in 8o!ume Long +o3 +reak 7ut 5!ace Stop be!ow Low o4 +o3 Trai! Stop be!ow !ast +o3
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)ar2as .!assic Ru!es
• • • • • • • Long 7n!* Screen Trades Stocks 7n!* /2 Week High ncrease in 8o!ume Long +o3 +reak 7ut 5!ace Stop be!ow Low o4 +o3 Trai! Stop be!ow !ast +o3
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)ar2as 9pdated Ru!es
• Long and Short • Screen :!! &arkets • /2 Week High, ; month, or 9ptrend <ew Highs • ncrease in 8o!ume • Long +o3 +reak 7ut • 5!ace Stop be!ow Low o4 +o3
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Ye!!ow ( 5urp!e
• • • • +e##ow means t e Top 2st t en -ottom. Purp#e means -ottom 2st t en Top. +e##ow /p Trend Purp#e down Trend
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Right .!ick nsert :na!*sis Techni0ue
Le4t .!ick TT& )ar2as +o3 ( 7-
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Trend Trading ) Too!s
• • • • • • Trade T e Mar%ets Trend Hei%en8As i Mo$ing A$erage Tend 0ines C#oud C arts Point and )igure Mar%et Pro!i#e
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T*pes o4 Trades
• -rea% outs • -rea% Out wit Pu## bac% • Re$ersa#s
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T*pes o4 Trades
• -rea% outs • -rea% Out wit Pu## bac% • Re$ersa#s
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)e4ine Your Trading Ru!es
• • • • • • )e4ine the Trend= )e4ine Entr* +reak out or 5u!!back= Entr*, c!ose abo2e bo3 or intrada*= nitia! Stop !oss, c!ose, intrada*6 Trai! Stop bottom o4 current or !ast or 2/> 2/> !ine can be used to add to p*ramid into
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&odu!e 2 Stocks Swing Trades ( )a* Trades
• • • • Earning P#a"s <BF Earning CBF 6ap P#a"s 6ap and 6o and 6ap and Crap
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% Stocks That +eat Earning #?> o4 the Time
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The % Horseman
• • • • • • • ISR6 /T7 0MT /NP :N: /NH 6S beat rate o! beat rate o! beat rate o! beat rate o! beat rate o! beat rate o! beat rate o! <1F and re$enue beat rate o! <2F <>F and re$enue beat rate o! G>F <>F and re$enue beat rate o! GHF <2F and re$enue beat rate o! >CF <2F and re$enue beat o! >GF <2F and re$enue beat o! >GF C<F and re$enue beat o! G@F
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% Horseman Ru!es
• • • • • )ind earing date -u" it @81 wee% out P#ace stop use ATR !or stop Se## 28@ da"s be!ore earnings or on earing da" I! "ou Ho#d t roug earnings a$e t e cus ion
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# Stocks that +eat Earnings #0> o4 the time
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The 7ther #
• • • • • • • :PM E-A+ '' AAP0 COP P6 O7+ beat rate o! C@F and re$enue beat rate o! >BF beat rate o! C>F and re$enue beat rate o! <HF beat rate o! C@F and re$enue beat rate o! >@F beat rate o! C1F and re$enue beat rate o! GCF beat rate o! CBF and re$enue beat o! =BF beat rate o! C@F and re$enue beat o! =HF beat rate o! CBF and re$enue beat o! GHF
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Ru!es
• • • • • )ind earing date -u" it @81 wee%s be!ore earnings P#ace stop use ATR !or stop Se## 28@ da"s be!ore earnings or on earing da" I! "ou Ho#d t roug earnings a$e t e cus ion
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How to @ind Earnings )ate
• • • ttp(..biI."a oo.com.researc .earnca#.toda". tm# ttp(..earnings.com. ig #ig t.aspJc#ientDcb ttp(..www.earningsw ispers.com.
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Yahoo Earnings .a!endar
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Earnings.co m Earnings .a!endar
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EarningsWhispers.com Earnings .a!endar
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Aaps ( Earnings
• • ttp(..www.barc art.com. ttp(..!in$iI.com
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&odu!e B E$mini )a* Trades
• • • • 6aps Ambus C=822= )ade Crescendo
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Aaps
• I! it ain,t -ro%e don,t !iE it
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What is a Aap Trade
• • • • • -e!ore E#ectronic Trading Pit Session <(HBam81(2=pm Eastern Ca#cu#ated )rom t e C#ose to t e Open Now t e Mar%ets Trade @H.2= ours a da". On#" 'own !or 1= mins
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Wh* are Aaps mportant=
• -ecause 6aps tend to !i## a #ot. • T e" are #i%e open windows. • I! +ou %now ow to trade t em "ou cou#d Potentia##" ma%e more mone".
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What &arkets )o Aap Work 7n=
• • • • • Remember t e Nature o! t e E8minis +M 'ow ES SKP N9 Nasda& T) Russe##
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How )o You @i3 Your .harts=
• TradeStation LS"mbo# • TradeStation L+M.' or L+MM2H • T in% Or Swim MTOSN
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:nswers YouC!! <eed to -now
• • • • • • • T"pe o! Trend T e Mar%et is in NowJ Is T ere a 6apJ How -ig is t e 6apJ ; at 'a" o! t e Mont is itJ ; at da" o! t e ;ee% is ItJ Is t e Ris% ;ort T e RewardJ ; at,s +our P#an
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This is mportant
• On a$erage G>F o! a## gaps c#ose at some point during t e same 'a". • ; at does t is mean.
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Aap Statistics ' ES point D '0 points Y&
• • • • • • • 2pts @pts Hpts 1pts =pts >pts Gpts <HF <BF C@F C>F >BF GGF G2F
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2pts @pts Hpts 1pts =pts >pts Gpts 8pts 9pts 10pts 11pts 12pts
<HF <BF C@F C>F >BF GGF G2F 54% 55% 40% 45% 0%
What si1e works +est21pts
2=pts 2>pts 2Gpts 2Cpts 2<pts @Bpts @2pts @@pts @Hpts
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2Hpts
=>F HHF BF BF 2BBF =BF =BF BF BF 2BBF BF =BF
@1pts
What )a*s o4 the Week Work +est
• • • • • Monda" Tuesda" ;ednesda" T ursda" )rida" >=F GGF G<F C@F GCF
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Things to Look 7ut @or
• Monda" a!ter OE7 6ap !i##s drop 2HF !rom >=F to =@F • )rida" a!ter Ro##o$er 6ap )i##s 'rop 2=F !rom GCF to >HF • )irst 'a" o! t e Mont Suc%s On#" =>F • 0ast 'a" o! t e Mont is 6reat C=F
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-now Your <umbers
• • • • • G>F o! a## gaps c#ose t at same 'a" Ha#! 6ap )i## appens C@F o! t e time 1B points gap !i## is t e sweat spot 0arge 6aps /se @=F stop #oss !or best resu#ts. 0arge gap use #ess siIe O or P o! norma# siIe
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/ Steps to +etter Aap Trades
• • • • • 5eep "ou ris% #ow 5eep It simp#e don,t o$er t in% it. Ha$e a C ec% 0ist grade t e setup Score T e 6ap Ru#es !or Entr"* Stop and EEit
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+est Wa*s to Enter Aap Trades
• • • • • ;ait !or <(HB am eastern I! in up trend and gap down o! >B or 0ess =B Tic% c arts @1 our c art Enter 0ong at @ -#ue TTM Trend -ars T in% Or Swim 2 -#ue -ar 2HH Tic%
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What is TT& Trend
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What is TT& Trend
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Aap Trade Set 9p Ru!es
0ong Trade I! #ess t an >B8GB point gap down go #ong ; en "ou a$e @ b#ue TTM Trend -ars on a =B tic% C art /se a @B point stop #oss Targets at Q2B* Q@B* Q1B Sca#e out O* P* P ; en Target 2 is it mo$e stop to Entr" 82B 5eep O and !u## gap !i## in mind
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.ounter Trend +ounce
• • • • • O gap !i## )u## gap )i## 1B Points C=822= points 2st HB mins is t e ig or 0ow o! t e da"
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:mbush
• How to bu" on a pu## bac% • =BF8>2.CF
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:mbush Trade Set 9p Ru!es
0ong Trade )ind #ow K ig !or t e da" 'raw )ib !rom #ow to ig P#ace bu" order 2 tic% inside =BF /se a @B point stop #oss Targets at Q2B* Q@B* Q1B Sca#e out O* P* P ; en Target 2 is it mo$e stop to Entr" 82B 5eep P !or a runner
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:mbush Trade Set 9p Ru!es
S ort Trade )ind #ow K ig !or t e da" 'raw )ib !rom ig to #ow P#ace se## order 2 tic% inside =BF /se a @B point stop #oss Targets at Q2B* Q@B* Q1B Sca#e out O* P* P ; en Target 2 is it mo$e stop to Entr" 82B 5eep P !or a runner
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+onus &inor .!ean :mbush
S ort Trade )ind #ow K ig !or t e da" 'raw )ib !rom ig to #ow P#ace se## order 2 tic% inside =BF /se a @B point stop #oss Targets at Q2B* Q@B* Q1B Sca#e out O* P* P ; en Target 2 is it mo$e stop to Entr" 82B 5eep P !or a runner
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&inor :mbush Trade Set 9p Ru!es
0ong Trade )ind #ow K ig o! mo$e need to be c#ean a## same co#or is best 'raw )ib !rom #ow to ig P#ace bu" order 2 tic% inside =BF /se a @B point stop #oss Targets at Q2B* Q@B* Q1B Sca#e out O* P* P ; en Target 2 is it mo$e stop to Entr" 82B 5eep P !or a runner
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&inor :mbush Trade Set 9p Ru!es
S ort Trade )ind #ow K ig o! mo$e need to be c#ean a## same co#or is best 'raw )ib !rom ig to #ow P#ace se## order 2 tic% inside =BF /se a @B point stop #oss Targets at Q2B* Q@B* Q1B Sca#e out O* P* P ; en Target 2 is it mo$e stop to Entr" 82B 5eep P !or a runner
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#/$ #/ $''/ :TR @ade
• T e 2st K or @nd time t e 'ow is at C=822= • )ade t eses areas
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#/$ #/ $''/ :TR @ade Trade Setup
S ort Trade ; en 'ow is up C=822= points S ort 'ow /se a @B point stop #oss or @8= tic%s abo$e t e ig Targets at Q2B* Q@B* Q1B Sca#e out O* P* P ; en Target 2 is it mo$e stop to Entr" 82B 5eep P !or a runner
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#/$ #/ $''/ :TR @ade Trade Setup
0ong Trade ; en 'ow is down C=822= points 0ong 'ow /se a @B point stop #oss or @8= tic%s be#ow t e #ow Targets at Q2B* Q@B* Q1B Sca#e out O* P* P ; en Target 2 is it mo$e stop to Entr" 82B 5eep P !or a runner
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.rescendo Trade Set 9p
• T is Trade wor%s on t e IndeE or Re$erse on ant bonds • Trade Ru#es are $er" Simp#e • ATRIN Reading o! RD
[email protected] • 6et 0ong intrada" and O$ernig t
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ETR < :rms nde3
• "t #o$pares advan#ing and de#lining sto#% issues and trading volu$e as an indi#ator of overall $ar%et senti$ent&
• 'advan#ing issues(de#lining issues)
'volu$e of advan#ing issues(volu$e of de#lining issues)
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How to use the ETR <
• I t in% o! it as a measurement o! ris% !or #ongs • I! Ris% !or #ongs is Rising t e mar%et s ou#d go down • I! t e Ris% !or #ongs is dropping t e Mar%et s ou#d go up
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ETR < E3treme
• ATRIN reading o! RD
[email protected] s ou#d s#ow t e se##ing down
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&odu!e " Ao!d Swing Trades ( )a* Trades
• 6o#d Nig t 6o#d Trade • 6o#d Rus • 6o#d -ug
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TradeT eMar%ets.com
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Ao!d Spec
6o#d ComeE 6C .B2* A2B* 2BBoI 6*:*M*9*4*S )ebruar"* Apri#* :une* August* October* and 'ecember • Ta#% about Ro## O$er • • • •
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http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_quotes_settlements_futures.html
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Aood <ight Ao!d Trade
• Aood <ight Ao!d – 72ernight Trade or Ho!d 4or &u!tip!e )a*s – )ai!* 9p Trend – !ook at a dai!* chart 2$B weeks – 9p or )own B 4rom ':B0 5& est – 9p or down B @rom the ':B0 5& EST – 5!ace trade F'':B0 5& EST – i4 up more than '/$'# 5ass – ; point6 ;0 Ticks Stop – ;0 point 6 ;00 ticks Target – )ecide at G20 , G"0 ( G;0 keep it or cut it !oose – High 8o!ume spikes make good e3its
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Ao!d Rush Trade
• Ao!d Rush Trade – ntrada* or 72ernight – )ai!* trend is not a 4i!ter but does he!p – 9p or down B @rom the ':B0 5& EST – 4 up GB go Long using a B point stop !ose – 4 down $B go Short using a B point stop !ose – +u* <ew high or se!! new !ow – The high and !ow are ca!cu!ated 4rom the ;:00 5& EST 7pen – i4 up more than '/$'# points be care4u! – Target is 7pen Sweet Spot B$# points
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Ao!d Rush Trade
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Ao!d @e2er
• Ao!d @e2er – ntrada* ( 72ernight – .aution its ca!!ed Ao!d @e2er 4or a reason – Think Ao!d Rush past '/$'# points – )ai!* trend is not a 4i!ter but does he!p – 9p or down '/ @rom the ':B0 5& EST – 4 order 4!ow is there to support *ou go !ong with a tight stop o4 './ $ B points – 7pen target donHt !ook awa* cou!d be a 4ast trade – Sweet spot is B$ '0 points or './$2I :TR – The high and !ow are ca!cu!ated 4rom the ;:00 5& EST 7pen
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Ao!d +ug
– ntrada* or o2er night but ntrada* works better – Trade in )irection o4 da* Trend – Ao!d up or done B 4i!ter – 9se 2a!ue .hart 4or entr* and e3it – Stop './ $ B points – +u* $# se!! G" or G# – Se!! $# .o2er G " or G#
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&odu!e / .rude 7i! )a* Trade
• Hot Potato Trade • T e Range Trade
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What is it looking for?
• • • • • • Current 0ow or New #ow. istogram represent t e di!!erence between t e $o#ume traded at or abo$e t e as% and t e $o#ume traded at or be#ow t e bid. Aggressi$e bu"ers at t e #ow. Aggrie$e se##ers at t e ig . Rea#8time On#" 0et it run a #itt#e !irst
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Hot 5otato Trade
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Hot 5otato Trade
Simp#e Tust wait !or a 'e#ta ' signa# 0ong 'e#ta ' signa# Mw iteN 0ong Crude /se a 2B tic% stop -ig Target HB tic%s Sca#e out O Q2B tic%s* P Q@B tic%s* P QHB tic% or open ; en Target 2 is it mo$e stop to Entr" 82B 5eep P !or a runner
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Hot 5otato Trade
Simp#e Tust wait !or a 'e#ta ' signa# S ort 'e#ta ' signa# MRE'N S ort Crude /se a 2B tic% stop -ig Target HB tic%s Sca#e out O Q2B tic%s* P Q@B tic%s* P QHB tic% or open ; en Target 2 is it mo$e stop to Entr" 82B 5eep P !or a runner
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&odu!e ; .orn, So*beans, Wheat )a* Trades
• Pop Corn Trade • 0imit Mo$e • MaTor Mar%et Mo$es
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Limit &o2e
• • • • ttp(..www.cmegroup.com.trading.Price80imit8/pdate. tm# ttp(..www.cmegroup.com.trading.agricu#tura#.grain8andoi#seed.cornUcontractUspeci!ications. tm# ttp(..www.cmegroup.com.trading.agricu#tura#.grain8and8oi#seed.so"beanUcontractUspeci!ications. tm# ttp(..www.cmegroup.com.trading.agricu#tura#.grain8and8oi#seed.w eatUcontractUspeci!ications. tm#
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.orn "06;06?0 So*beans %06'0/6';0 Wheat ;06?06'B/
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5op .orn Trade Long
;ait !or Corn 6o 0imit up 6et #ong So"beans w en t is appens I! Corn come o!! #imit se## so"beans
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5op .orn Trade Short
;ait !or Corn 6o 0imit down 6et s ort So"beans w en t is appens I! Corn come o!! #imit co$er so"beans
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&odu!e % +ond Swing and )a* Trades
• Snea% Attac% • C*2@*2> re$ersa#s • O$er Nig t -ond trade
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Wh* Trade +onds ( <otes
Bond Basics
• • • • • • • • &onths Time .aution S*mbo!s Tick 8a!ues )7&E &argins +ond 'st hour Trading Ru!es
The Months of Futures
)e!i2er* &onth Januar* @ebruar* &arch :pri! &a* June Ju!* :ugust September 7ctober <o2ember )ecember Letter @or that &onth @ A H J & < K 9 8 I L
Bond Months
• • • • • H, &, 9, L H &arch & June 9 Sep L )ec
Bonds & Notes Spec
• 9S6B0 TY6'0 @86/ T962 • H&9L • &arch, June, September, and )ecember
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Time to Trade Bonds
• ;:00 pm$ / pm EST • 7pen 7ut .r* #:20 am M B:00 EST
Caution
• nterest Rates • :n* 7ther &aNor Econ <ews • Econoday.com
Tick Values
• B0 +ond • '0 <ote • / <ote Tick • 2 <ote B'.2/ ' pit tick '/.;2/ O pit Tick %.#' P pit '/.;2/ O pit tick
TradeStation and n4init* S*mbo!s
TRA'ESTATION • HB +ear -ond • /SH2H MARCH • /SM2H :/NE • /S/2H SEP • /SS2H 'EC IN)INIT+ • HB +ear -ond • S-H2H MARCH • S-M2H :/NE • S-/2H SEP • S-S2H 'EC
TradeStation and n4init* S*mbo!s
TRA'ESTATION • 2B +ear Note • T+H2H MARCH • T+M2H :/NE • T+/2H SEP • T+S2H 'EC IN)INIT+ • 2B +ear Note • SNH2H MARCH • SNM2H :/NE • SN/2H SEP • SNS2H 'EC
They are Deep and Tight
What the DOME looks like
Intrada" • Ca## +our -ro%er • -ut cou#d be as #ow as AHBB82BBB per Car • -ut 'on,t recommend
&argin ntrada* and 72ernight
O$er Nig t • HB"r • 2B"r • ="r • @"r AHHG= A21<B AG1H AHB1
Ta!k about how to use the ru!es to *ou ad2antage
Sneak Attack
• • • • • • • Take the Range 4or the 4irst Hour %:20$#:20 am EST Range &ust be D or Less than 8a!ueQIR +u* ' tick high Se!! ' tick Low Target is the Range Stop is QYR
30 year bond
• • • • • • • • • '6B2 D EB'.2/ '"B$'"B '6B2 D B'.2/ '% ticks or !ess +u* ' tick high or se!! ' tick !ow Stop " or / ticks Target is the 'st hour Range E3amp!e '/ tick range " tick stop '/ tick target
EBT (Sneak Attack)30 year bond
• • • • • • • • • '6B2 D EB'.2/ '"B$'"B '6B2 D B'.2/ '% ticks or !ess +u* ' tick high or se!! ' tick !ow: 2 ticks works e2en better Stop " or / ticks Target is the 'st hour Range E3amp!e '/ tick range " tick stop '/ tick target
10 year note
• • • • • • • • 131-131.5 = $15.62 131-132 = 31.25 7 ticks or less Buy 1 tick high or sell 1 tick low Stop 2 - 2.5 pit ticks (4 Ticks on Screen) Target is the 1st hour Range Example 5 tick range 2 tick stop (4 Ticks on Screen) 5 tick target
Make it Easy
&ake it Your 7wn
Reversal Fade Trade
• • • • • Look for High Low Try to stay on the Side of Daily Trend Globex and Day Session 30yr 8,12,16 ticks ACS 10yr 6,8,12 ticks ACS
30yr Reversal Trade 8,12,16
• • • • • • • First mark open 5 min chart 8:20am Eastern Can use Globex also Calculate using 8,12,16 143 18/32 open + 8 ticks = 143 26/32 Stop 4 Ticks Target open Trail stop
tCs o44icia! *ou are good to go