National Gap Analysis 2 Final

NATIONAL
WORKFORCE
GAP ANALYSIS
January 2014

CONTENTS

1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2

INTRODUCTION
3 Approach

4

REPORT ORGANIZATION

5

GAPS FOR SPECIFIC OCCUPATIONS
5 Top 10 Occupational Shortages
6 Health Care
7 Computers & Information Technology
8 Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics (STEM)
9 Other Occupations

10

GAPS BY CAREER CLUSTER
11 Career Clusters: Postsecondary Certificate & Associate’s Degree Level
13 Career Clusters: Bachelor’s Degree & Above Level

15

NEGATIVE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF WORKFORCE GAPS

17

APPENDIX
17 About the Data
17 Methodology
18 Limitations
19 Data Tables

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

FINDING THE RIGHT WORKER to fill a specific position has always been one of the more difficult tasks for businesses, but based on current data on job openings and unemployment
it seems that that task is harder than ever. Based on national job openings levels we would
expect unemployment to be closer to 5% than the current 6.7%,1 begging the question of
why the unemployed are not fitting back into the labor force as easily as they have in the
past. In other words, why is there such a substantial skills gap?
This paper seeks to shed light on this problem by comparing the types of higher education
programs that are generating new completers and graduates to job openings within the
American labor force. Such a complex question cannot be fully addressed by a high-level
analysis of abstract data, but our intention is to provide data that will open up the discussion and reveal some areas where the workforce appears to be critically undersupplied.
From this comparison a number of notable highlights were revealed:

CATEGORIES that often receive the greatest amount of attention in skills gap conversations are laden with a large number of
undersupplied occupations including Healthcare, Computer and
Information Technology, and STEM.
•

•

•

Within the healthcare field, there are ten specific occupations
with an outstanding gap of over 200 workers per year. These
include the likes of nurse practitioners; biological technicians;
and medical transcriptionists.
Within the computer and IT field, eight specific occupations
are associated with an outstanding gap of over 150 workers
per year, including network and computer systems administrators; software developers, applications; and computer
hardware engineers.
Within STEM disciplines, numerous forms of engineers and
scientists are experiencing gaps of 400 or more workers per
year. Included in this mix are petroleum engineers; industrial
engineers; and aerospace engineers.

1

ADDITIONAL occupational categories possess similar characteristics of demand outweighing supply.
•

For example, financial managers; technical writers; logisticians; and special education teachers, secondary school, all
display apparent workforce shortages of over 1,600 workers
per year.

OVER the next five years new supply of postsecondary awards
and associate’s degrees is projected to be slightly short of labor
market demand, and new supply of bachelor’s and above graduates is projected to be slightly above labor market demand. However, these findings are sensitive to the assumptions implied in
the analysis. Other researchers have found the aggregate supply
of college graduates to be far below labor market demand.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/web/jolts/jlt_labstatgraphs.pdf, “Chart 4: The Beveridge Curve.”

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INTRODUCTION

YEARS AFTER THE END of the Great Recession the US economy continues to struggle with
a stubborn mismatch between jobs openings and available labor—a phenomenon that has
been called by many the national “skills gap.” One of the primary purposes of the public
education system since its inception has been to cultivate a skilled workforce that prepares
individuals to contribute to the national economy. This analysis make no attempt to answer
every aspect of this question, but it does intend to explore whether students exiting higher
education institutions have been trained in fields that match the current and projected
needs of the labor market. For this analysis, EMSI relies heavily on employment and degree
conferral data to demonstrate whether educational institutions are focusing on the right
blend of education and training programs to train for skilled in-demand positions. Admittedly, this is not a question that can be fully addressed by a high-level analysis of abstract
data, but our intention is to provide data that will open up the discussion and reveal some
areas where the workforce appears to be critically undersupplied.
As with any data-driven analysis, there are certain limitations to our approach. When
aggregating large amounts of data it is not possible to account for the myriad educational
pathways individuals take prior to arriving in a career. It is necessary for us to focus on
the most common and frequent college-to-work transitions, meaning that some of the
more unusual pathways will not be addressed (such as a person who receives a bachelor’s
degree in engineering and becomes a journalist). A list of other minor limitations and their
implications to this study are contained in the appendix.
The primary purpose of this analysis is to discuss national, not regional, skills shortages.
Every region experiences its own unique labor shortage issues, making it difficult to generalize about the source of such problems.2 EMSI encourages regional stakeholders to conduct
similar analyses for their precise geographies, which can be done provided researchers have
access to proper data tools that measure supply and demand in the local labor market.
Ultimately, analyses such as these will point out areas of weakness but will not be able to
pinpoint all challenges faced by regional employers. Summits and forums where regional
stakeholders can examine the data and collectively discuss their workforce challenges are
a necessary step prior to taking action on any large-scale educational or workforce development plans.

2

For instance, see http://www.economicmodeling.com/2013/12/03/using-regional-economic-development-strategies-to-diagnose-and-treat-skill-gaps/.

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APPROACH
Understanding any type of market requires an analysis of that market’s sources of supply
and demand and how they are interrelated. The analysis compares educational supply (i.e.,
graduates of educational programs) with workforce demand (i.e., current and forecasted job
openings), revealing whether educational output is at, near, or below the market demand
for workers in specific occupational fields. Demand-side estimates account for the estimated educational levels required by employers. For example, there are many openings for
database administrators, but since this job typically requires a bachelor’s degree or higher,
relatively few of these occupations are available for two-year college graduates. Throughout
the report, occupations are assessed at two different levels—associate’s degree and postsecondary awards, and bachelor’s degrees and above. These two perspectives are highlighted
because they roughly approximate the provinces of two-year and four-year schools. It is
necessary to separate these perspectives because a demand for a given occupation may vary
substantially based on award level. For example, an occupation may be adequately supplied
at the associate’s degree level, but undersupplied at the bachelor’s level. (The opposite can
also occur but is less common).

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REPORT ORGANIZATION

THE REPORT BEGINS by analyzing gaps among specific occupations that have been categorized according to the National Career Cluster framework. This framework was developed
by the U.S. Department of Education as an organizational method for classifying job opportunities according to preeminent knowledge and skills. Using this basic framework, EMSI
categorizes all 740 occupations (SOC codes) and all 1,400 educational programs (CIP codes).3
After this, we take a higher level look at supply and demand for career cluster groups, which
reveals general fields where over or undersupply may be particularly acute.
Throughout the report, each graph and table contains supply and demand measurements
along with another figure referred to as the “gap or surplus”.4 If this number is positive, it’s
a possible indication of a shortage or “gap” of completers (i.e., there are more job openings
than there are educational completers). If this number is negative, then there is a surplus
of educational completers for the given occupation.

3

4

In cases where occupations were mapped to several different career clusters, EMSI determined which category best reflected the core skills of that occupation. For example, physiologists could be classified either
among Health Sciences or Human Services. EMSI selected Human Services due to the profession’s greater
emphasis on counseling than on diagnosis and treatment.
EMSI averages completer data for academic years 2009/10, 2010/11, and 2011/12 because data are not yet
available for academic year 2012-2013.

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GAPS FOR
SPECIFIC OCCUPATIONS
THIS CHAPTER EXAMINES supply and demand dynamics for specific types of occupations
organized according to career cluster groups. Particular focus is given to areas of the workforce where the skills gap conversation has been focused—namely health care, information
technology, and STEM. The data tables associated with these graphs are contained in the
appendix. Other occupations with notable gaps outside of these realms are discussed in
the “other occupations” section.

TOP 10 OCCUPATIONAL SHORTAGES
The following table summarizes the top ten occupational shortages that are covered across
all the career cluster groups. GNP (gross national product) per worker is a figure that
approximates the overall economic contribution of a single worker in these occupations.5
The table also shows an estimate of the percent of the gap that requires a postsecondary
award or associate’s degree. The remaining percent requires a bachelor’s or above.
TABLE 1.1: Top Educational Gaps Across All Occupations

Gap

Percent Postsecondary Award
or Associate’s
Degree

GNP per
Worker

6,881

12,607

9

$117,592

8,308

122

8,186

23

$154,079

14,018

7,943

6,075

32

$110,116

5,566

760

4,806

3

$804,252

19,718

15,003

4,715

11

$77,522

9,347

6,298

3,049

27

$155,309

13,229

10,537

2,692

20

$282,398

Computer Hardware Engineers

2,952

394

2,558

20

$517,287

Biological Technicians

3,449

928

2,521

25

$113,048

Database Administrators

5,211

2,999

2,212

21

$364,576

Occupational Title

Demand
(Annual Job
Openings)

Supply (Annual
Educational
Completers)

Financial Analysts

19,488

Meeting, Convention, and Event Planners
Network and Computer Systems Administrators
Nurse Practitioners
Software Developers, Applications
Training and Development Specialists
Marketing Managers

5

The detailed methodology of GNP per worker is contained in the section titled “Negative Economic Consequences of Workforce Gaps.”

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HEALTH CARE
Health care is often a top candidate when discussing skills gap issues, but at the macro level educational providers in the United States are training a sufficient number of workers in some of the most critical gaps, including
registered nurses, medical assistants, and medical and health services managers. These fields present several additional challenges for employers in that many people who do receive training never obtain certification to practice.
For example, in 2013 the passage rate for individuals taking the NCLEX exam, (the required certificate to practice
as a registered nurse) was just 71%.6 Furthermore, for many that do enter these fields the “burnout” rate is fairly
high.7 In addition, fields like registered nursing may appear to be adequately supplied at the national level but if
a region does not have a college nearby it may have difficulty recruiting workers.8
Many of the healthcare industries’ greatest needs are being addressed, but there yet remain some specific health
care occupations with significant undersupply issues. A list of the top ten is listed in Figure 1.1. Several laboratorybased occupations that typically require a college degree are in need of a larger number of trained workers, including biological technicians (short by 2,521) and dental laboratory technicians (846). Likewise, certain diagnostic and
treatment positions appear to be undersupplied, including nurse practitioners (4,806); recreational therapists (260);
and psychiatric technicians (227).
FIGURE 1.1: Top Gaps Among Health Care Occupations
DEMAND

SUPPLY

GAP

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

10014+0621767312813+867301259388+83171303531
NURSE PRACTITIONERS

4,806

BIOLOGICAL TECHNICIANS

2,521

MEDICAL TRANSCRIPTIONISTS

2,003

DENTAL LABORATORY TECHNICIANS

846

VETERINARIANS

750

OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH AND SAFETY TECHNICIANS
MEDICAL APPLIANCE TECHNICIANS

356

347

MEDICAL AND CLINICAL LAB TECHNOLOGISTS
RECREATIONAL THERAPISTS

ELECTRICAL AND ELECTRONIC DRAFTERS

310

260

227

TABLE 1.2: Top Educational Gaps for Health Care Occupations
Demand (Annual
Job Openings)

Supply (Annual
Educational Completers)

Gap

Percent Postsecondary
Award or
Associate’s Degree*

Nurse Practitioners

5,566

760

4,806

3

Biological Technicians

3,449

928

2,521

25

Medical Transcriptionists

3,731

1,728

2,003

50

Dental Laboratory Technicians

1,571

725

846

47

Veterinarians

Occupational Title

4,793

4,043

750

0

Occupational Health and Safety Technicians

641

285

356

22

Medical Appliance Technicians

517

170

347

47

Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists

4,917

4,607

310

31

Recreational Therapists

965

704

260

18

Psychiatric Technicians

1,959

1,732

227

50

* This column displays the percent of the gap that requires a postsecondary award or associate’s degree. The remaining percent requires a bachelor’s or
above.

6
7
8

National Council on State Boards of Nursing, https://www.ncsbn.org/Table_of_Pass_Rates_2013.pdf.
“More Than One Third of Employed Health Care Workers Plan to Look for a New Job This Year,” http://www.careerbuilder.com/share/aboutus/pressreleasesdetail.aspx?sd=4%2F30%2F2013&id=pr754&ed=12%2F31%2F2013
“Current and Future State of US Nursing Workforce,” http://jama.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=182941.

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COMPUTER & INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
Computer and information technology occupations are at the forefront of national economic and workforce development for good reason. Individuals with computer and IT skills generate innovation and accelerates the pace
of technological change, thereby creating new job opportunities across the economy. Despite the rapid growth of
computer and IT occupations, overall enrollment and graduation trends in the US have dropped in recent years.
For instance, one program type—computer and information sciences has plummeted from 49,000 graduates in 2003
to fewer than 24,000 in 2012.9 In turn there has been strong growth in more precise forms of training, including
information technology, and computer systems networking & telecommunications.
Strictly in terms of quantity, some of the highest demand occupations appear to be adequately supplied at the
macro level, including web developers and computer programmers. However, there are also a handful of job titles
that appear to fall far short of a sufficient number of trained workers. Areas of apparent undersupply include
some positions in information technology such asnetwork and computer systems administrators (an annual gap
of 6,075 workers) and database administrators (2,212), and others such as software developers, applications (4,715);
and computer hardware engineers (2,558).

FIGURE 1.2: Top Gaps Among Computer and IT Occupations
DEMAND

SUPPLY

0

GAP

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

5632+07860122+021 10093+081772927+021

NET WORK AND COMPUTER SYSTEMS ADMINISTRATORS

6,075

SOFT WARE DEVELOPERS, APPLICATIONS

4,715

COMPUTER HARDWARE ENGINEERS

2,558

DATABASE ADMINISTRATORS

2,212

COMPUTER USER SUPPORT SPECIALISTS

1,693

COMPUTER SYSTEMS ANALYSTS

1,015

COMPUTER NET WORK SUPPORT SPECIALISTS

COMPUTER NUMERICALLY CONTROLLED MACHINE TOOL PROGRAMMERS, METAL &

494

156

TABLE 1.3: Top Educational Gaps for Computers & Information Technology Occupations
Demand (Annual
Job Openings)

Supply (Annual
Educational Completers)

Gap

Percent Postsecondary
Award or
Associate’s Degree*

Network and Computer Systems Administrators

14,018

7,943

6,075

32

Software Developers, Applications

19,718

15,003

4,715

11

Computer Hardware Engineers

2,952

394

2,558

20

Database Administrators

5,211

2,999

2,212

21

Computer User Support Specialists

25,194

23,501

1,693

37

Computer Systems Analysts

20,354

19,339

1,015

22

7,358

6,863

494

37

530

374

156

48

Occupational Title

Computer Network Support Specialists
Computer Numerically Controlled Machine Tool Programmers, Metal &
Plastic

* This column displays the percent of the gap that requires a postsecondary award or associate’s degree. The remaining percent requires a bachelor’s or
above.

9

National Center for Educational Statistics, IPEDS Data Center, http://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/datacenter/Default.aspx.

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SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING & MATHEMATICS (STEM)
STEM workers play critical roles in some of the most influential and cutting edge industries of the United States
economy, such as research and development, energy, biotechnology. The need for higher education is apparent
among STEM occupations more than any other field, as roughly 70% of employment is held by individuals with a
bachelor’s degree or higher.10 As will be highlighted later in this report, when all STEM fields are taken into account
there does not appear to be general shortage of STEM graduates. Rather, the problem stems from undue attention
on educational programs that do not provide direct technical job training such as biology.
Some of the larger and better known occupational fields appear to be sufficiently supplied strictly from a quantitative point of view. For example, programs in civil, mechanical and electrical engineering each produce annual
degree output that exceeds annual demand for engineers in these fields. Meanwhile, numerous other occupational
types seem to be experiencing systematic shortages. Such job titles include petroleum engineers (an annual shortage of 1,788); industrial engineers (1,731); and environmental engineers (1,717).
FIGURE 1.3: Top Gaps Among STEM Occupations
DEMAND

SUPPLY

GAP

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

347+010074 17+204332153+120716+5

PETROLEUM ENGINEERS

1,788

INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERS

1,731

ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERS

1,717

NUCLEAR ENGINEERS

944

AEROSPACE ENGINEERS

779

MATERIALS ENGINEERS

749

HEALTH & SAFETY ENGINEERS, EXCEPT MINING SAFETY ENGINEERS & INSPECTORS
POWER DISTRIBUTORS AND DISPATCHERS

613

425

MATERIALS SCIENTISTS

339

MINING AND GEOLOGICAL ENGINEERS, INCLUDING MINING SAFETY ENGINEERS

316

TABLE 1.4: Top Educational Gaps for STEM Occupations
Demand (Annual
Job Openings)

Supply (Annual
Educational Completers)

Gap

Percent Postsecondary
Award or
Associate’s Degree*

Petroleum Engineers

2,228

440

1,788

9

Industrial Engineers

6,562

4,831

1,731

21

Environmental Engineers

2,205

488

1,717

8

Power Plant Operators

1,654

127

1,527

9

Nuclear Engineers

1,104

160

944

12

Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators, and Gaugers

1,319

418

901

20

Chemical Plant and System Operators

1,172

357

815

21

Aerospace Engineers

2,852

2,074

779

48

Materials Engineers

959

211

749

5

Power Distributors and Dispatchers

460

35

425

17

Occupational Title

* This column displays the percent of the gap that requires a postsecondary award or associate’s degree. The remaining percent requires a bachelor’s or
above.

10 Bureau of Labor Statitics, “Educational attainment for workers 25 years and older by detailed occupation, 2010–11” and http://www.bls.gov/
emp/ep_table_111.htm.

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OTHER OCCUPATIONS
The career cluster level analysis at the end of this report reveals that finance and marketing, sales, & service represent some of the largest missing pieces for the American educational system. Figure 1.4 and Table 1.5 display some
of the most notable shortages among these fields and several others. Within the finance field, there appear to be
large-scale shortages for trained financial managers (15,609); and financial analysts (12,607). From the marketing,
sales, & service field, numerous job types appear to experience annual shortages, including meeting, convention,
and event planners (8,186); training and development specialists (3,049); and marketing managers (2,692). Occupations critical to transportation, education, and manufacturing are also represented on this list with logisticians
(1,836); special education teachers, secondary school (1,653); and electrical and electronics drafters (723).

FIGURE 1.4: Top Gaps Among Other Occupations
DEMAND

SUPPLY

GAP

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

10041+074263113524+504009181019+12031
FINANCIAL MANAGERS

15,609

FINANCIAL ANALYSTS

12,607

MEETING, CONVENTION, AND EVENT PLANNERS

8,186

TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT SPECIALISTS

3,049

MARKETING MANAGERS

2,692

TECHNICAL WRITERS

2,115

HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGERS

1,967

LOGISTICIANS

1,836

SPECIAL EDUCATION TEACHERS, SECONDARY SCHOOL
ELECTRICAL AND ELECTRONICS DRAFTERS

1,653

727

TABLE 1.5: Top Educational Gaps for Other Occupations
Demand (Annual
Job Openings)

Supply (Annual
Educational Completers)

Gap

Percent Postsecondary
Award or
Associate’s Degree*

Financial Managers

26,379

10,770

15,609

24

Financial Analysts

19,488

6,881

12,607

9

Meeting, Convention, and Event Planners

8,308

122

8,186

23

Training and Development Specialists

9,347

6,298

3,049

27

13,229

10,537

2,692

20

Technical Writers

2,400

284

2,115

17

Human Resources Managers

4,618

2,651

1,967

25

Logisticians

5,124

3,288

1,836

34

Special Education Teachers, Secondary School

4,932

3,279

1,653

3

827

100

727

53

Occupational Title

Marketing Managers

Electrical and Electronics Drafters

* This column displays the percent of the gap that requires a postsecondary award or associate’s degree. The remaining percent requires a bachelor’s or
above.

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GAPS BY CAREER CLUSTER

ALL OF THE OCCUPATIONS highlighted in the previous section have been allocated by EMSI
into one of sixteen career cluster groups. Stepping back and taking a broader view of
these career clusters can reveal trends that are not as apparent at lower levels of aggregation. For example, occupations that are similar enough to be grouped into the same
career cluster may be experiencing drastically different supply and demand dynamics. For
example, lumped together within the “Health Science” cluster are massage therapists and
pharmacists. These precise trends are lost when aggregated and we are left with a more
generic high level view of which fields are most over and undersupplied from a raw data
perspective.
The analysis is split into two sections. The first focusing on program output from two-year
colleges in the form of postsecondary certificates and associate’s degrees, and the second
focusing on program output from four-year colleges (i.e.: bachelor’s, master’s, and doctoral
degrees). Splitting the analysis in this way allows for better analysis of the priority areas
for each type of educational institution.
The following is a list of the 16 career clusters that are highlighted in the following section.
For more information on career clusters, visit http://www.careertech.org/career-clusters/
glance/.
• Agriculture, Food, and Natural Resources
• Architecture and Construction
• Arts, Audio/Video Technology, and Communications
• Business, Management, and Administration
• Education and Training
• Finance
• Government and Public Administration
• Health Science
• Hospitality and Tourism
• Human Services
• Information Technology
• Law, Public Safety, Corrections, and Security
• Manufacturing
• Marketing, Sales, and Service
• Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM)
• Transportation, Distribution, and Logistics

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CAREER CLUSTERS: POSTSECONDARY CERTIFICATE AND ASSOCIATE’S
DEGREE LEVEL
Over the next five years new supply of postsecondary certificates and associate’s degrees is
projected to be a hair below labor market demand. EMSI projects an average of 2.43 million
annual job openings for certificate and associate’s degree holders compared to 2.35 million
in annual educational output. This represents a shortage of 81,600 workers, or a 3% gap
between supply and demand.11 Another factor worth consideration is that many individuals who receive associate’s degrees in liberal arts transfer to four-year schools, resulting in
delayed entrance into the workforce. According to EMSI’s internal data, the transfer rate for
two-year liberal arts graduates is roughly 50%.12 When these graduates are extracted from
the supply number, the annual difference is increased to 229,000, or a 9% gap. A shortage
of 229,000 trained workers per year could force employers to hire workers that are not
well suited for those positions, which could result in lower productivity (with less qualified
workers) or underemployment (with overqualified workers). Both scenarios carry with them
adverse economic effects.
Examining these data for the sixteen career clusters reveals some points where supply
lags behind demand. In total, nine of the sixteen clusters are projected to experience
some undersupply. The largest notable gaps are among the following clusters: marketing,
sales, and service; business, management and administration; transportation, distribution,
and logistics; finance; manufacturing; and architecture and construction. The marketing
and the business clusters both include a host of occupations that are typically staffed by
associate’s degree holders or people who attended college but did not receive a degree;
examples include purchasing agents, real estate appraisers, and bookkeepers. Despite
the large quantity of annual demand two-year colleges tend not to offer much technical
training for such positions. There are also many undersupplied working-class occupations
among the transportation and manufacturing clusters for which a certificate or associate’s
degree would present a major advantage to job seekers. These include perennially difficult
to hire positions such as industrial machinery mechanics; machinists; and electrical and
electronic drafters.
Conversely, several clusters that receive a great deal of attention in the national skills gap
conversation appear relatively low on this list. Health science, one of the preeminent draws
for two-year colleges, ranks high both in terms of supply and demand but produces an
apparent surplus of over 361,000 students per year. Part of the explanation for this must
be traced to a handful of relatively quick educational programs, such as certified nursing
assisting and massage therapy, that tend not to result in long term job retention.13 Interestingly, science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) is associated with a surplus

11 The methodology employed does not allow for a simple breakout between these two categories.
12 Includes only transfers that occur within one year after completion of associate’s degrees, data supplied by
EMSI, 2014
13 American Healthcare Association, http://www.ahcancal.org/research_data/staffing/Documents/staffsurvey_2009_full_report.pdf

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of nearly 23,000 per year and information technology registers a surplus of more than
31,000. Each case has a similar phenomenon, where a few occupations are associated with
the bulk of completers but the remainding occupations are either balanced or undersupplied. Where high amounts of oversupply exist in fields similar to those with high amounts
of undersupply, it could signal an opportunity for two-year colleges to encourage students
to modify their educational plans in ways that would offer students greater economic
opportunities. For example, there are greater than 14,000 annual completers in electrical
engineering technician programs competing for about 2,000 annual openings, but only 300
completers in programs training for chemical plant and system operators competing for
more than 700 annual openings. There is certainly enough overlap between these two fields
that some students would be interested in such a transition.
FIGURE 1.5: Educational Gaps among Postsecondary and Associate’s Level Occupations
THOUSANDS OF JOBS

0

100

200

300

400

7953+341614+12113+1

MARKETING SALES & SERVICE CLUSTER

HOSPITALITY &TOURISM CLUSTER

BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT & ADMINISTRATION CLUSTER
AGRICULTURE, FOOD & NATURAL RESOURCE CLUSTER

TRANSPORTATION, DISTRIBUTION, & LOGISTICS CLUSTER
FINANCE CLUSTER

MANUFACTURING CLUSTER
HUMAN SERVICES CLUSTER

ARCHITECTURE AND CONSTRUCTION CLUSTER

TABLE 1.6: Job Openings Compared to Educational Completers for Postsecondary Certificate and Associate’s Degree
Level Graduates by Career Cluster
Demand
(Annual Job
Openings)

Supply
(Annual
Educational
Completers)

Gap or
Surplus

Percent Postsecondary Award or Associate’s Degree*

Marketing Sales & Service Cluster

415,180

18,048

397,132

43

Hospitality & Tourism Cluster

312,950

50,056

262,894

62

Business, Management & Administration Cluster

333,198

164,978

168,220

45

Agriculture, Food & Natural Resource Cluster

97,981

16,134

81,848

55

Transportation, Distribution, & Logistics Cluster

187,563

118,789

68,774

69

Finance Cluster

102,181

43,402

58,780

25

Manufacturing Cluster

134,157

81,255

52,902

69

Human Services Cluster

224,571

208,910

15,661

51

Architecture & Construction Cluster

111,925

106,119

5,805

63

466

1,226

(760)

25

Arts, Audio/Video Technology & Communications Cluster

62,740

64,378

(1,637)

30

Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics Cluster

23,907

46,659

(22,753)

25

Information Technology Cluster

46,447

77,787

(31,340)

28

Law, Public Safety, Corrections & Security Cluster

71,428

120,400

(48,972)

40

238,158

600,124

(361,967)

43

72,066

635,049

(562,983)

18

Cluster

Government & Public Administration Cluster

Health Science Cluster
Education & Training Cluster

* This column displays the percent of the gap that requires a postsecondary award or associate’s degree. The remaining
percent requires a bachelor’s or above.

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CAREER CLUSTERS: BACHELOR’S DEGREE & ABOVE LEVEL
Comparing supply of new bachelor’s degrees and above with demand for workers with those
same educational levels reveals a market that appears to be slightly oversupplied—3.05 million job openings compared to 3.20 million graduates. This difference of 148,000 workers is
about 5% higher than the forecasted labor market needs. The implication of this model is
not that 148,000 college graduates will be unable to find work. In fact, many of these higher
level graduates will successfully obtain jobs over individuals with lower educational experience. Rather, what this demonstrates is that according to current labor market requirements
some college graduates will exceed the basic educational requirements for their positions,
creating the possibility for underemployment.14 It’s worthy of note that other researchers
have come to different conclusions. For example, Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce reports that to meet the demand for skilled workers the number of
young people attending college will need to increase by 2.6% per year for the next fifteen
years.15 Different methodologies come with different sets of assumptions. It is not the objective of this analysis to argue with other reputable researchers about aggregate demand for
college degrees, but rather to dive deeper into areas of the economy which are experiencing
notable skills gaps.
Looking across the career clusters, eight of the sixteen demonstrate significant gaps, headlined by marketing, sales and service; finance; architecture and construction; and information technology.16 Though not all positions in the marketing and finance cluster require
specific technical training, there are certain positions with surprising levels of apparent
undersupply given the relatively appealing wages, including financial analysts, market
research analysts, and sales engineers, among others.
The information technology cluster is a particularly interesting case because of its unique
importance to the American economy as both a driver and enabler of technological change.
The demand for bachelor’s degree level workers in the IT cluster dwarfs the demand for
workers with lower educational levels. In fact, the estimated demand for IT jobs is three
times greater at the bachelor’s degree and above level, yet there are only 14% more graduates than at the certificate and associate’s degree level. The gap of over 32,000 workers
should also be considered as particularly important for the national economy. The lofty
earnings of IT occupations compared to others (see Table A.1) indicate that these workers
are of critical importance to businesses.
STEM and health science once again appear to have considerable surpluses that are slightly
deceiving. In these cases, the aggregate level analysis obscures some of the critical shortages occurring at more detailed occupational levels. Supply numbers for these fields are
14 It has been noted by some commentators that workers with bachelor’s degrees typically earn substantially
more than their peers in those same occupational fields. However, it has not been adequately demonstrated
that the wage differentials are enough to compensate for the increased cost of education to obtain the bachelor’s degree.
15 Anthony P. Carnevale and Stephen J. Rose, “The Undereducated American,” http://cew.georgetown.edu/undereducated/
16 Hospitality and tourism is not considered a critical gap due to the relatively low median earnings, see Table A.1.

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primarily driven by extraordinarily high production in a handful of programs. For example,
each year there are more than 82,000 bachelor’s degree level or above graduates in biology
programs, equivalent to roughly 2.5% of all degrees awarded. Though a bachelor’s degree
in biology can serve as a perfect gateway for further study in medicine or the sciences,
jobs in-field are scarce for individuals who enter the job market after receiving a bachelor’s
degree.17 It’s particularly important to consider redirecting some of these students when
such acute shortages exist for other STEM and health sciences occupations such biological
technicians and aerospace engineers.
FIGURE 1.6: Educational Gaps Among Bachelor’s Degree Level and Above Occupations
THOUSANDS OF JOBS

0

100

200

300

400

500

9636+ 35159+ 76+

MARKETING SALES & SERVICE CLUSTER
FINANCE CLUSTER

HOSPITALITY & TOURISM CLUSTER

TRANSPORTATION, DISTRIBUTION, & LOGISTICS CLUSTER
MANUFACTURING CLUSTER

ARCHITECTURE & CONSTRUCTION CLUSTER
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY CLUSTER

AGRICULTURE, FOOD & NATURAL RESOURCE CLUSTER

TABLE 1.7: Job Openings Compared to Educational Completers for Bachelor’s, Master’s and Doctoral Degree Graduates by Career Cluster

Cluster

Demand
(Job Openings)

Supply (Completers)

Gap or
Surplus

Percent
Bachelor's
Degree or
Above*

Marketing Sales & Service Cluster

550,974

69,195

481,779

57

Finance Cluster

312,647

134,643

178,004

75

Hospitality & Tourism Cluster

190,231

15,147

175,084

38

Transportation, Distribution, & Logistics Cluster

84,391

7,068

77,323

31

Manufacturing Cluster

60,686

13,398

47,289

31

Architecture & Construction Cluster

65,121

29,865

35,257

37

121,551

89,041

32,509

72

80,805

51,282

29,522

45

Law, Public Safety, Corrections & Security Cluster

107,139

139,916

(32,777)

60

Human Services Cluster

212,965

286,925

(73,960)

49

Health Science Cluster

317,397

413,604

(96,206)

57

Arts, Audio/Video Technology & Communications Cluster

143,511

240,289

(96,778)

70

1,408

98,565

(97,157)

75

406,605

524,792

(118,186)

55

72,278

367,913

(295,635)

75

326,615

720,822

(394,207)

82

Information Technology Cluster
Agriculture, Food & Natural Resource Cluster

Government & Public Administration Cluster
Business, Management & Administration Cluster
Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics Cluster
Education & Training Cluster

* This column displays the percent of the gap that requires a requires a bachelor’s or above.

17 Please note that data do not exist that reveal individuals’ ultimate award level. Hence, these numbers have
not been adjusted to account for the number of graduates who go on to receive a master’s or PhD in related
fields. The “snapshot” method of this analysis does allow us to examine the supply and demand dynamics of
the occupations that former biology undergrads are currently competing for such as physicians and biotechnologists. Given the current data, none of these occupations registered as having significant workforce gaps.

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NEGATIVE ECONOMIC
CONSEQUENCES OF
WORKFORCE GAPS
WHEN UNFILLED GAPS EXIST in the national labor market there are negative economic
consequences, not just due to the loss of those workers’ earnings, but also due to the lost
productivity of those workers. There are many ways to measure the economic contribution
of particular industryies, but metrics on the contribution of particular occupations are
relatively scarce. Gross national product (GNP) is one of the most common industry contribution metrics. It takes into account all economic effects that are directly attributable to
an industry, including earnings, profits returned to owners and investors, and tax revenue
generated by that business. EMSI has pioneered a method for translating these figures to
the occupational perspective. GNP on a per-worker basis is shown in Figure 1.7 and these
data are shown in greater detail in Table 1.8.
FIGURE 1.7: Average Gross National Product per Worker by Occupational Group
$ THOUSANDS

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

10078+ 453837+ 3330+ 282625+ 20+1713+ 12108+ 7+65

LIFE, PHYSICAL, AND SOCIAL SCIENCE

$367

ARCHITECTURE AND ENGINEERING

$286

COMPUTER AND MATHEMATICAL

$165

INSTALLATION, MAINTENANCE, AND REPAIR

$140

PRODUCTION

$137

LEGAL

$135

HEALTHCARE PRACTITIONERS AND TECHNICAL

$122

BUSINESS AND FINANCIAL OPERATIONS

$109

MANAGEMENT

$102

ARTS, DESIGN, ENTERTAINMENT, SPORTS, AND MEDIA

$94

MILITARY

$93

FARMING, FISHING, AND FORESTRY

$93

NATIONAL AVERAGE

$74

CONSTRUCTION AND EXTRACTION

$72

TRANSPORTATION AND MATERIAL MOVING

$63

COMMUNITY AND SOCIAL SERVICE

$62

EDUCATION, TRAINING, AND LIBRARY

$46

OFFICE AND ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT
SALES AND RELATED

HEALTHCARE SUPPORT

$44

$38

$30

PERSONAL CARE AND SERVICE

$30

FOOD PREPARATION AND SERVING RELATED

$27

PROTECTIVE SERVICE

$24

UNCLASSIFIED OCCUPATION

$24

BUILDING AND GROUNDS CLEANING AND MAINTENANCE

$17

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TABLE 1.8: Gross National Product by Occupational Group, Total and Per Worker
Total GNP
($ Millions)

GNP Per
Worker

Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations

$556,727

$367,300

Architecture and Engineering Occupations

$760,759

$286,200

Computer and Mathematical Occupations

$686,333

$164,700

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations

$875,808

$140,300

$1,288,732

$136,800

$203,470

$135,400

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations

$1,030,669

$122,100

Business and Financial Operations Occupations

$1,114,663

$108,800

Management Occupations

$1,252,341

$101,500

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations

$497,429

$94,400

Military occupations

$197,985

$93,400

Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations

$114,801

$92,500

Construction and Extraction Occupations

$549,687

$71,700

Transportation and Material Moving Occupations

$649,474

$62,800

Community and Social Service Occupations

$151,271

$62,100

Education, Training, and Library Occupations

$426,846

$46,100

$1,054,849

$43,600

Sales and Related Occupations

$884,835

$37,900

Healthcare Support Occupations

$138,905

$30,200

Personal Care and Service Occupations

$255,058

$30,000

Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations

$323,663

$26,900

Protective Service Occupations

$82,293

$24,100

Unclassified Occupation

$17,833

$23,800

$127,246

$16,800

$13,241,678

$73,900

Occupational Description

Production Occupations
Legal Occupations

Office and Administrative Support Occupations

Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations
Total

Since skills gaps are fundamentally a regional problem, each of these occupational groups
is experiencing shortages somewhere within the country, and these gaps have negative
economic consequences that prevent regional economies from growing. Many of the critical shortage areas highlighted throughout this report are associated with remarkably high
GNP per worker figures. STEM occupations appear in numerous parts of this list, chief
among them being the two highest-ranking categories—life, physical, and social science;
and architecture and engineering occupations. Life, physical, and social science workers
contribute an average of $367,300 per worker to the national economy in terms of earnings,
profits, and tax revenue generated, and architecture and engineering workers contribute
$286,200 per worker. Computer and mathematical occupations, a group that contains most
IT workers, generate $164,700 in economic benefits per worker. Healthcare practitioners
and technical occupations are considerably lower but still comfortably above average at
$122,100 per worker.
These metrics illustrate that workforce shortages are not just a matter of inconvenience for
businesses but have the potential to adversely affect economic productivity if they persist.

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APPENDIX

ABOUT THE DATA
EMSI used data from a multitude of sources to produce the gap estimates. All data are either
taken from government organizations or derived from government sources using EMSI’s
own proprietary data interpolation techniques. Supply-side data come from the Integrated
Postsecondary Educational System (IPEDS), which contains data on all public and most
private institutions in the United States. Demand-side data are taken from EMSI’s “Complete Employment” dataset for the fourth quarter of 2013. Current employment estimates
are created from a compilation of sources such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). EMSI projects employment at the national level using
its own forecasting technique, but to ensure quality, these figures are controlled with the
Bureau of Economic Analysis’ long-term industry and occupation forecasts.

METHODOLOGY
Using demand-side data (average annual openings) and supply-side data (postsecondary
education output), EMSI built a model to compare workforce demand with education supply.
The purpose of this analysis is to find the difference or “gap” between the average annual
openings for an occupation and the number of people completing postsecondary degrees
for that occupation.
The first step involves mapping the linkage between annual openings for a SOC code and the
number of completions for an education program CIP code. The BLS provides information
on the occupations that completers of specific CIP codes are more likely to enter. Specific
connections have been refined through previous engagements with education institutions
and state departments of labor. Some programs have direct occupational ties. For example,
a physical therapist assistant is a specific occupation that requires specialized postsecondary training. In this case, one CIP code (physical therapy technician/assistant) maps to only
one SOC code (physical therapists assistants). This provides an easy comparison of annual
openings for physical therapist assistants to the number of people completing the relevant
program to see whether a talent shortage or surplus exists. Unfortunately, this is not always
the case. More often than not an educational program maps to multiple occupations and
an occupation maps to multiple educational programs. For this reason, EMSI has pioneered
a method of de-duplicating completers, such that the potential sources of supply are not
double-counted for any occupation.
To capture occupation demand, EMSI uses a proprietary employment dataset that reflects

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total employment (i.e., employment covered by unemployment insurance as well as proprietor employment). The employment data reflect jobs for the fourth quarter of 2013.
Within this dataset, EMSI calculated the number of national annual job openings for the
occupations that require two different levels of postsecondary training— 1) postsecondary
certificates and associates degrees, and 2) bachelor’s degrees and above. The BLS provides
educational attainment data of current workers for each SOC code, broken out by their
highest level of education attained. The data are presented as the percentage of workers in
the SOC code with educational attainment ranging from less than a high school degree to
an associate’s degree to a bachelor’s degree and so on. EMSI uses this BLS table to weight
the actual number of annual openings that will be available for each occupational category.
First, EMSI applies the actual proportion of workers with those educational levels to the
raw annual openings number, but further categories are added under the assumption that
employers have a preference for college educated workers over non-college educated workers. To build in this preference, EMSI includes one half of “some college, no degree” in each
of the two educational groups, and includes one half of workers with just a high school
diploma in the certificate and associate’s degree category.
Most educational programs are designed to train people for multiple occupational types,
many of which are simultaneously linked with other educational programs, presenting
a complexity when comparing supply and demand for any particular educational program. For instance, the computer systems networking and telecommunications program is
mapped to three different occupations: computer support specialists, information security
analysts, and computer systems analysts. If we focus on just one of the occupations for this
list—computer support specialists—it is also mapped to 10 different educational programs,
spanning program titles such as computer systems analysis and medical office computer
specialist.
To ensure that no double-counting occurs, it is necessary to determine what proportion
of completers ultimately end up working within specific occupations. EMSI uses a formula
that favors occupations with the largest number of annual openings, attributing a greater
proportion of supply to these than those which produce a smaller number of annual openings. This is a valid methodology, under the assumption that the higher-demand occupations
are likely receiving a higher number of graduates.

LIMITATIONS
There are some limitations to the way that supply and demand are measured in this
analysis. First, EMSI relies heavily on the program to occupation crosswalk provided by the
US Department of Education and the US Department of Labor as a reliable predictor for
individuals’ career paths. Though this crosswalk is by no means perfect, it is the most comprehensive source on the topic and a helpful guide. Second, supply side estimates do not
account for students who receive a degree or credential but who do not pass the necessary
certification to practice in that field. This factor can have a substantial impact on fields with

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stiff entrance requirements, such as registered nursing. Third, EMSI does not consider what
wage differentials between college educated and non-college educated workers reveal about
employers’ preferences for higher educated workers. Some have argued that the substantial
wage differentials at precise occupational levels provide evidence that employers’ demand
for college educated individuals is undersupplied. What is lacking from this argument is
that it counts the benefits of receiving a bachelor’s degree but not the costs. Though such
degrees often do provide a wage premium they also tend to come at a higher cost due to
tuition and foregone wages while attending school. Lastly, certain occupational fields are
in a state of perpetual workforce shortage, and in such conditions there is not a sufficient
track record of increased employer demand to forecast increased growth for those occupations. This commonly occurs with highly skilled occupations that are less desirable for
younger people entering the workforce (e.g.: welders, industrial machinery mechanics, etc.)

DATA TABLES

TABLE A.1: Median Hourly Earnings by Career Cluster at Associate’s and Bachelor’s Degree Levels
Median Hourly Earnings
(Postsecondary
Certificates &
Associate’s Degrees)

Median Hourly Earnings
(Bachelor’s Degrees and
Above)

Marketing Sales and Service Cluster

$15.31

$18.90

Hospitality and Tourism Cluster

$10.45

$10.80

Business, Management and Administration Cluster

$20.89

$25.34

Agriculture, Food and Natural Resource Cluster

$12.88

$18.74

Transportation, Distribution, and Logistics Cluster

$15.96

$18.50

Finance Cluster

$25.21

$28.41

Manufacturing Cluster

$16.78

$17.89

Human Services Cluster

$10.85

$16.65

Architecture and Construction Cluster

$20.42

$25.05

Government and Public Administration Cluster

$22.45

$17.66

Arts, Audio/Video Technology and Communications Cluster

$19.36

$18.89

Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics Cluster

$31.52

$39.71

Information Technology Cluster

$31.23

$37.12

Law, Public Safety, Corrections and Security Cluster

$20.44

$30.80

Health Science Cluster

$20.89

$34.16

Education and Training Cluster

$16.98

$24.42

Career Cluster

Note: Wage calculations are the weighted average of job openings for job titles assumed to require these degree levels

N AT I O N A L W O R K F O R C E G A P A N A LY S I S   |   1 9

TABLE A.2: GNP per Worker for Specific Occupations
Title

GNP per
Worker

Category

Nurse Practitioners

$804,252

Health Care

$83,422

Health Care

Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists
Occupational Health and Safety Technicians

$1,051,942

Health Care

Biological Technicians

$113,048

Health Care

Veterinarians

$148,991

Health Care

Recreational Therapists

$585,758

Health Care

Medical Appliance Technicians

$762,907

Health Care

Dental Laboratory Technicians

$201,883

Health Care

$67,238

Health Care

Medical Transcriptionists
Psychiatric Technicians

$74,545

Health Care

Computer User Support Specialists

$354,929

Computers & IT

Computer Network Support Specialists

$354,929

Computers & IT

$77,522

Computers & IT

Database Administrators

$364,576

Computers & IT

Computer Hardware Engineers

$517,287

Computers & IT

Network and Computer Systems Administrators

$110,116

Computers & IT

Software Developers, Applications

Computer Systems Analysts
Computer Numerically Controlled Machine Tool Programmers, Metal and Plastic
Financial Managers

$71,718

Computers & IT

$597,136

Computers & IT

$96,377

Other

Financial Analysts

$117,592

Other

Human Resources Managers

$351,770

Other

Technical Writers

$428,827

Other

Meeting, Convention, and Event Planners

$154,079

Other

Marketing Managers

$282,398

Other

Training and Development Specialists

$155,309

Other

Logisticians

$200,569

Other

Special Education Teachers, Secondary School

$182,555

Other

Electrical and Electronics Drafters

$625,140

Other

$1,491,978

STEM

$133,648

STEM

Nuclear Engineers

$1,108,793

STEM

Health and Safety Engineers, Except Mining Safety Engineers and Inspectors

$1,076,121

STEM

Materials Scientists

$3,130,925

STEM

Materials Engineers

$987,796

STEM

$2,604,138

STEM

$255,915

STEM

$369,136

STEM

$2,390,003

STEM

Petroleum Engineers
Industrial Engineers

Mining and Geological Engineers, Including Mining Safety Engineers
Aerospace Engineers
Environmental Engineers
Power Distributors and Dispatchers

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