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Content
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Ruthless selling continued across the globe for yet another week. Last week we mentioned that a break below 3,650 levels on the Nifty could drag it lower to 3,300 levels. The pace of the fall has surprised everyone. While some think that the market has bottomed out, we believe otherwise. Momentum indicators of Nifty indicate that the market is yet to make a bottom in the near term. With sustained selling by FIIs, stocks like ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Bharti Airtel, HDFC, HDFC Bank, L&T, Reliance Industries and Sun Pharma are likely to lead the next and probably the last fall. The structural uptrend that began in May 2003 at Nifty 930 ended with the January peak of 6,357. Since then, the Nifty has seen a relentless fall. This has resulted in a retracement of more than 50% gains since the start of the bull run. Analyzing the monthly chart, a fall to 3,000 levels seems probable. This will be a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the January peak. Historically, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level has played a key role in determining the market's direction, as it typically signals a turnaround in a trend. History could repeat itself here. But, then again, this time it could be different since US is facing a once in a century crisis. Overall, at around 3,000 Nifty, the market should be close to the bottom.
October 13, 2008
Market Watch on 10 Oct 2008
Global trends remain weak
The global credit crisis has entered a very conclusive phase with bankruptcies, nationalization and acquisition of various large financial institutions over the last couple of months. Global central banks have taken urgent monetary actions (cutting rates, guaranteeing deposits, etc) to keep enough liquidity within their respective economies. We are not sure if these initiatives would serve their purpose fully given that apart from home loans and mortgages, credit card debts, student loans and auto loans would further intensify the current crisis. In Europe, we believe that the pain has just begun with Japan and Asia likely to follow suit. In our last edition, we had mentioned that Dow may touch sub- 9,000 levels, which has come true albeit earlier than our expectation. The daily chart now indicates that major supports have been broken with next support lying at below 7,440 levels for the index.
Market Watch: 13 October 2008
Volatility will be extremely high. Do not trade. Wise traders stay away in such situations.
Do NOT try to catch falling knives.
Below chart of Nifty Support Level
Money Mantra Financial Focus
-1-
Visit us at www.moneymantrastock.com
October 13, 2008
NSE Nifty: (3513) The nifty lost strong ground. Seems to have broken the support level. Might fall further.
Particulars Levels Supp 1 Supp 2 3,240 2,970 Res 1 3,760 Res 2 4,000 50 DMA 4,225 200 DMA 4,775
60 week moving average = Will it offer support?
After last week of sell off - Nifty is again at an important support level - 60 month moving average (5-year average). Now, 60 month ma does not mean anything perse but if we look in the history - this was the level which became significant resistance once market slipped below it in 2000-2002. It then took long time for Nifty to recover above it. In 2001-2002 - once Nifty slipped below 60 month ma, it remained below it for 27 months - a long agonizing painful period. Are we looking at this scenario in 2008-2009 again - let us hope we are not.
Bottom Line
There is a saying - when market breaks a significant resistance level, it becomes an important support level. Let us hope that 60 month ma may work as an important support level. The 60 month ma i.e. 3239.
Money Mantra Financial Focus
-2-
Visit us at www.moneymantrastock.com
October 13, 2008
we know this sounds ridiculous. The reality is market has shown no signs of bottom and recovery. In such an environment, second guessing the market is a bad idea. These levels/moving average should be kept in mind only to assess market behaviour around these levels. One should not show any urgency to put money to work till market conclusively bottoms out.
Still Indian Market unable to come out from pain so advised to be careful
Money Mantra Research (10 Oct 2008)
Positional Calls for Short Term
Sr. 1. Stock
Cipla
Action Sell
Rec Price Below 195
Stoploss Target For Members Only
Holding Remarket 5-6 Days
NOTE: Kindly note that all stop losses in Momentum Calls are on an intra-day basis. MOM = momentum call.
Core Projects and Technology:
Core Projects and Technology has been a strong stock in last 3 months. From bottom of 160, the stock made a strong upmove to 300 - upmove of 87% in just 2 months (July-August). The whole of September when market was turbulent and volatile, the stock managed pretty well and held its head above 200 dma. Technically, the stock exhibited all the signs of a bullish
Money Mantra Financial Focus
-3-
Visit us at www.moneymantrastock.com
October 13, 2008
stock. But one day - Friday changed it all. From levels of 250, stock tumbled to 144 - a severe drop of 43% in a single session.
The Core Projects and Technologies stock plunged 44% on Friday, amid market talk that shares pledged by some high net worth individuals were offloaded after margin calls were unmet. Brokers said HNIs had borrowed money from a couple of non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) by pledging these shares. Close to 4 million shares changed hands on both exchanges combined, nearly 5% of its equity base....Economic Times
Alert: In bad times, one should avoid mid-caps. The absence of liquidity (supply-demand mismatch) may create severe price destruction. These are unusual times, and leveraged FIIs/investors are bailing out of market - and for them exit is more important than price/value.
Money Mantra Financial Focus
-4-
Visit us at www.moneymantrastock.com
October 13, 2008
Intraday calls Performance : 10 Oct 2008
Pre Market Alert : Opening Trade very Critical .US, Asian mkt crash. Just stay away & take a fresh plunge only when the signs get better Wait for our SMS till then away from Market. Money Mantra Create History in 1000 point Down Market. We rec in Newsletter to Buy Ranbaxy above 271 Check status of call Open : 260 after Bounce 271 Touch High 295+ In Volatile Market get Target of 295 up 4% That is Money Mantra (Ranbaxy Call and news we publish Free on website also) Type Rec Target Stoploss Remark Price
Date
Script
High 644 Achieved 10-Oct-08 Buy Axis Bank Fut 595 620+ 580 High 1361+ Achieved 10-Oct-08 Buy SBI Fut 1285 1320 1265 Low 328 Achieved 10-Oct-08 Sell ICICI Fut 408 380/365 422 High 686 Stoploss Triggered 10-Oct-08 Buy Maruti EQ 682 692 675 High 1588 Achieved 10-Oct-08 Buy Reliance EQ 1575 1586 1560 Today on 10 Oct 2008 we allowed to trade only High Risky Members. We avoid to trade in Future only Risky Trade in Future market.
Delivery Delight : 07 Oct 2008 Short Term Check Below Result.
08-Oct-08 Buy Axis Bank cash Remark: Exit 635 Level on 10 Oct 2008 07-Oct-08 Buy NTPC cash 642 175 ??? ??? ??? Achieved after rec 686 Short Term delivery ??? Remark: Achieved after rec 178+ close at 177+ in Most volatile market stock strong. Profit in Positional call Profit: 28,500 Rs 06-Oct-08 Sell Pun Lloyd Fut 250 235/212 262 Remark : On 08 oct 2008 collapsed to 202 Achieved Both Target Profit: 28,500 Rs
BTST/STBT CALLS : Rec on 08 Oct 2008 Result on 10 Oct 2008
Date 08-Oct-08 08-Oct-08 08-Oct-08 Script PunjLLoyd Maruti Relinfra Type Fut EQ Fut Rec 228 680 640 Target Remark 238/??? High after rec 241 695 High after rec 698 Stop Loss Trigged Profit/Loss Profit 7,500 Rs Achieved Target Loss: 7,500
Contact us: For any Query Contact us + (91) – 99289-77488; + (91) – 98292-85781 (From 10:00 AM to 10:00 PM) Email Support: [email protected] Yahoo Support: [email protected]
To know more about our products and services click here.
Disclaimer: The recommendations made herein do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any of the securities mentioned. Readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions. The information and views contained herein are believed to be reliable but no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Editors may or may not have trading or investment positions in the securities mentioned herein.
Money Mantra Financial Focus
-5-
Ruthless selling continued across the globe for yet another week. Last week we mentioned that a break below 3,650 levels on the Nifty could drag it lower to 3,300 levels. The pace of the fall has surprised everyone. While some think that the market has bottomed out, we believe otherwise. Momentum indicators of Nifty indicate that the market is yet to make a bottom in the near term. With sustained selling by FIIs, stocks like ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Bharti Airtel, HDFC, HDFC Bank, L&T, Reliance Industries and Sun Pharma are likely to lead the next and probably the last fall. The structural uptrend that began in May 2003 at Nifty 930 ended with the January peak of 6,357. Since then, the Nifty has seen a relentless fall. This has resulted in a retracement of more than 50% gains since the start of the bull run. Analyzing the monthly chart, a fall to 3,000 levels seems probable. This will be a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the January peak. Historically, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level has played a key role in determining the market's direction, as it typically signals a turnaround in a trend. History could repeat itself here. But, then again, this time it could be different since US is facing a once in a century crisis. Overall, at around 3,000 Nifty, the market should be close to the bottom.
October 13, 2008
Market Watch on 10 Oct 2008
Global trends remain weak
The global credit crisis has entered a very conclusive phase with bankruptcies, nationalization and acquisition of various large financial institutions over the last couple of months. Global central banks have taken urgent monetary actions (cutting rates, guaranteeing deposits, etc) to keep enough liquidity within their respective economies. We are not sure if these initiatives would serve their purpose fully given that apart from home loans and mortgages, credit card debts, student loans and auto loans would further intensify the current crisis. In Europe, we believe that the pain has just begun with Japan and Asia likely to follow suit. In our last edition, we had mentioned that Dow may touch sub- 9,000 levels, which has come true albeit earlier than our expectation. The daily chart now indicates that major supports have been broken with next support lying at below 7,440 levels for the index.
Market Watch: 13 October 2008
Volatility will be extremely high. Do not trade. Wise traders stay away in such situations.
Do NOT try to catch falling knives.
Below chart of Nifty Support Level
Money Mantra Financial Focus
-1-
Visit us at www.moneymantrastock.com
October 13, 2008
NSE Nifty: (3513) The nifty lost strong ground. Seems to have broken the support level. Might fall further.
Particulars Levels Supp 1 Supp 2 3,240 2,970 Res 1 3,760 Res 2 4,000 50 DMA 4,225 200 DMA 4,775
60 week moving average = Will it offer support?
After last week of sell off - Nifty is again at an important support level - 60 month moving average (5-year average). Now, 60 month ma does not mean anything perse but if we look in the history - this was the level which became significant resistance once market slipped below it in 2000-2002. It then took long time for Nifty to recover above it. In 2001-2002 - once Nifty slipped below 60 month ma, it remained below it for 27 months - a long agonizing painful period. Are we looking at this scenario in 2008-2009 again - let us hope we are not.
Bottom Line
There is a saying - when market breaks a significant resistance level, it becomes an important support level. Let us hope that 60 month ma may work as an important support level. The 60 month ma i.e. 3239.
Money Mantra Financial Focus
-2-
Visit us at www.moneymantrastock.com
October 13, 2008
we know this sounds ridiculous. The reality is market has shown no signs of bottom and recovery. In such an environment, second guessing the market is a bad idea. These levels/moving average should be kept in mind only to assess market behaviour around these levels. One should not show any urgency to put money to work till market conclusively bottoms out.
Still Indian Market unable to come out from pain so advised to be careful
Money Mantra Research (10 Oct 2008)
Positional Calls for Short Term
Sr. 1. Stock
Cipla
Action Sell
Rec Price Below 195
Stoploss Target For Members Only
Holding Remarket 5-6 Days
NOTE: Kindly note that all stop losses in Momentum Calls are on an intra-day basis. MOM = momentum call.
Core Projects and Technology:
Core Projects and Technology has been a strong stock in last 3 months. From bottom of 160, the stock made a strong upmove to 300 - upmove of 87% in just 2 months (July-August). The whole of September when market was turbulent and volatile, the stock managed pretty well and held its head above 200 dma. Technically, the stock exhibited all the signs of a bullish
Money Mantra Financial Focus
-3-
Visit us at www.moneymantrastock.com
October 13, 2008
stock. But one day - Friday changed it all. From levels of 250, stock tumbled to 144 - a severe drop of 43% in a single session.
The Core Projects and Technologies stock plunged 44% on Friday, amid market talk that shares pledged by some high net worth individuals were offloaded after margin calls were unmet. Brokers said HNIs had borrowed money from a couple of non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) by pledging these shares. Close to 4 million shares changed hands on both exchanges combined, nearly 5% of its equity base....Economic Times
Alert: In bad times, one should avoid mid-caps. The absence of liquidity (supply-demand mismatch) may create severe price destruction. These are unusual times, and leveraged FIIs/investors are bailing out of market - and for them exit is more important than price/value.
Money Mantra Financial Focus
-4-
Visit us at www.moneymantrastock.com
October 13, 2008
Intraday calls Performance : 10 Oct 2008
Pre Market Alert : Opening Trade very Critical .US, Asian mkt crash. Just stay away & take a fresh plunge only when the signs get better Wait for our SMS till then away from Market. Money Mantra Create History in 1000 point Down Market. We rec in Newsletter to Buy Ranbaxy above 271 Check status of call Open : 260 after Bounce 271 Touch High 295+ In Volatile Market get Target of 295 up 4% That is Money Mantra (Ranbaxy Call and news we publish Free on website also) Type Rec Target Stoploss Remark Price
Date
Script
High 644 Achieved 10-Oct-08 Buy Axis Bank Fut 595 620+ 580 High 1361+ Achieved 10-Oct-08 Buy SBI Fut 1285 1320 1265 Low 328 Achieved 10-Oct-08 Sell ICICI Fut 408 380/365 422 High 686 Stoploss Triggered 10-Oct-08 Buy Maruti EQ 682 692 675 High 1588 Achieved 10-Oct-08 Buy Reliance EQ 1575 1586 1560 Today on 10 Oct 2008 we allowed to trade only High Risky Members. We avoid to trade in Future only Risky Trade in Future market.
Delivery Delight : 07 Oct 2008 Short Term Check Below Result.
08-Oct-08 Buy Axis Bank cash Remark: Exit 635 Level on 10 Oct 2008 07-Oct-08 Buy NTPC cash 642 175 ??? ??? ??? Achieved after rec 686 Short Term delivery ??? Remark: Achieved after rec 178+ close at 177+ in Most volatile market stock strong. Profit in Positional call Profit: 28,500 Rs 06-Oct-08 Sell Pun Lloyd Fut 250 235/212 262 Remark : On 08 oct 2008 collapsed to 202 Achieved Both Target Profit: 28,500 Rs
BTST/STBT CALLS : Rec on 08 Oct 2008 Result on 10 Oct 2008
Date 08-Oct-08 08-Oct-08 08-Oct-08 Script PunjLLoyd Maruti Relinfra Type Fut EQ Fut Rec 228 680 640 Target Remark 238/??? High after rec 241 695 High after rec 698 Stop Loss Trigged Profit/Loss Profit 7,500 Rs Achieved Target Loss: 7,500
Contact us: For any Query Contact us + (91) – 99289-77488; + (91) – 98292-85781 (From 10:00 AM to 10:00 PM) Email Support: [email protected] Yahoo Support: [email protected]
To know more about our products and services click here.
Disclaimer: The recommendations made herein do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any of the securities mentioned. Readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions. The information and views contained herein are believed to be reliable but no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Editors may or may not have trading or investment positions in the securities mentioned herein.
Money Mantra Financial Focus
-5-
