North Dakota Poll

324 Second Street, SE •Washington, DC 20003
1005 Congress, Ste 495 • Austin, TX 78701
1319 Classen Drive • Oklahoma City, OK 73103
202.470.6300 • @wparesearch
www.wparesearch.com
Global Perspective.
Innovative Research.
Superior Results.
P O L L I N G ME MO R A N D U M
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: WPA OPINION RESEARCH
SUBJECT: NORTH DAKOTA CONGRESSIONAL RACE
DATE: OCTOBER 1, 2014

Congressman Kevi n Cramer i n a strong posi ti on to wi n re- el ecti on accordi ng
to a recent WPA Research survey of 400 North Dakota 2014 l i kel y General
El ecti on voters shows.

Bal l ot
• Congressman Cramer has nearl y maj ori ty support among l i kel y voters
and i s l eadi ng among several key subgroups.
o Overall, Cramer has a ten-point lead over George Sinner (48%-38%).
o Among voters who have cast a ballot in each of the last four elections,
Cramer has an eight-point lead (48%-40%).
o While female voters are split between Cramer and Sinner (42%-42%) Cramer
leads with men by 20 points (54%-34%).
o Cramer has a commanding 31-point lead with men aged 18 to 54 (57%-
26%).

“If the general election for U.S. Congress were held today,
for whom would you vote?”

Resul ts
Overal l
( 100%)
Vote Hi story:
4 of 4
( 58%)
Women
( 50%)
Men 18- 54
( 33%)
Total Cramer 48% 48% 42% 57%
Total Si nner 38% 40% 42% 26%
Undeci ded 12% 11% 14% 14%

Medi a Markets
• Congressman Cramer l eads i n both of North Dakota’ s maj or medi a
markets.
o Cramer has a three-point lead in Fargo (45%-42%).
o Cramer has a 17-point lead in Minot (51%-34%).

Resul ts
Fargo
( 50%)
Mi not
( 50%)
Total Cramer 45% 51%
Total Si nner 42% 34%
Undeci ded 11% 24%
Concl usi on
A little over a month from Election Day, Congressman Kevin Cramer is in a strong position to
win re-election leading by ten-points with those likely to vote. Cramer leads in both major
media markets and has strong support among key sub-groups including the most frequent
voters and men under the age of 54. Taken together, these data indicate that Congressman
Cramer is very well positioned to win a second term in Congress.

© 2014 WPA Opinion Research
Do not copy or distribute without permission
Confidential Page 2 of 2 10/1/14
Methodol ogy
On behalf of the Cramer for Congress campaign, Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research
conducted a study of likely voters in North Dakota. Respondents were screened on their
likelihood to vote in November. WPA selected a random sample from a list of previous voters
in North Dakota plus a list of voting age adults. The sample for this survey was stratified
based on gender, age, and geography and reflects the demographic composition of the likely
November 2014 electorate. This methodology allows us to minimize post-survey “weighting”
which can reduce the reliability of survey results. Respondents were contacted via phone by
professional interviewers between September 29- and 30, 2014. Twenty-five percent of all
respondents in the survey were reached on a cell phone. The study has a sample size of 400
likely voters in North Dakota with a margin of error of ±4.9% at the 95 percent confidence
interval; margin of error is higher among subgroups.