OPTIMISM #Optitunity

 

 

Optimism #optitunity By Henry Kannberg. 2013-4 (Common Era)  or! a"ternatie"y 02013-02014 (in t$e %ong &o' ounation*s numbering system) I spent New Year's Eve 1999 in Tokyo. Tokyo. If only for arbitrary calendrical reasons, it felt like a remarkable remarkab le inflection inflection point and a crossroads – te passa!e from one m millenni"m illenni"m to anoter anoter.. No calend cal endar ar moment moment in te rest rest of my li life fe will be #"ite #"ite so a"!"st a"!"st.. $t te time I was was e% e%tre treme mely ly fort"nate and privile!ed to be st"dyin! &apanese on a one year scolarsip at aiici (ei)ai *niversity, and was l"cky fo"nd myan way to te capital via slow trains rater tan sinkansen, sinkanse n,+"k"oka, to save my limited stocktoofave yen-. It was absol"tely e%i e%ilaratin laratin! ! ni!t, from massed crowds in in/"k" at midni!t to bars in 0oppon!i to a into temple at si% in te mornin! somewere tat I cannot remember beca"se by tat point te potions and eli%irs in te 0oppon!i  bars ad  ad removed wat remained remain ed of my inner 2. I ret"rned ret"rn ed ome o me to te *( in eptember 3444 avin! been treated wit te most ama)in! ospitality, ospitality, !enerosity, !enerosity, co"rtesy, co"rtesy, respect and politeness politeness everywere I ad visited in a tr"ly bea"tif"l co"ntry and a place tat I will feel warm and !ratef"l towards for te te rest of my life. I remember remember tat ni!t and tat year year wit notin! notin! b"t fondness and appiness.. 5earnin! te lan!"a!e appiness lan!"a!e and c"lt"re of &apan, &apan, at least to some limited limited e%tent I am no 5afcadi 5afc adio o 6earn-, 6earn-, ta"!t ta"!t me deep lessons lessons tat will stay wit me for !ood. Te callen! callen!ee of attemptin! to absorb te 3,444 kan/i caracters tat are prescribed for everyday literacy, in and of it itsel self, f, was was a ma!ni ma!nific ficent ently ly stim" stim"la lati tin! n! an and d mind7 mind7e%p e%pand andin! in! one. $ccor $ccordin din! ! to te idea of 1 ne"roplasticity   and te advanc advances es t tat at are bein! bein! made made in tis tis e% e%cit citin! in! era of ne"ro ne"rosc scien ience ce,, attemptin! to !et my ead aro"nd te labyrints of te writin! system may peraps ave even rewired my brain to some e%tent3. It certainly fra))led it, weter or not it rewired it. 8atever te advances in medicine d"rin! te co"rse of my life, I do not e%pect to still be alivee on New Year aliv Year's 's Eve 3499. I may or may not witness witness te moment moment in istory were were te ten  billiont "man bein! is born. bo rn. If by some miracle I were to reac te a!e of 131, I am not s"re s" re tat I wo"ld #"ite ave te ener!y to en/oy te festivities in te 'Eastern apital', let alone somewere more #"iet:  and peraps peraps less smart. smart. 8at 8at I do e%pect e%pect is tat in my absence te world world will will be a 1 3

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+or e%ampl e%ample, e, as dis disc"s c"ssed sed by Norman Norman oid!e oid!e,, ;Te ;Te <rain <rain Tat Tat an an!es !es Itself Itself== tor tories ies of 2ers 2ersona onall Tri" Tri"mp mp from te +rontiers of <rain cience> 344?espit espitee w work orkin! in! e%trem e%tremely ely ar ard d at at te te lan! lan!"a! "a!e, e, I am am stil stilll "nfo "nfort" rt"nat nately ely able able tto o only only rea read d tte e most most basi basicc stories in &apanese b"t ope tat te process involved leads to !reater brain connectivity, as fo"nd for e%ample in te e%periment in 341: by te Emory *niversity's entre for Ne"ropolicy in $tlanta. I am not #"ite s"re if my  brain as become wat ary mall and and i!i @ @oran oran mi!t call an 'i<rain' yet 3449- and I am not ss"re "re I ave "nder!one eno"! random fl"ct"ations fl"ct"ations to form a <olt)mann brain. I am also only /"st be!innin! to learn ow to  play te !ame Eye8ire Eye8ire from te e"n! Ne"roscience lab at AIT wic is "sin! !amification to elp map te bra brain. in. I am am no nott pe perso rsonal nally ly s"re s"re of wet weter er I am am in introv troverte erted, d, e%tr e%trove overte rted d or an ambive ambivert rt ff"si "sion on of of t tee ttwo, wo, b"t if I did reac 131 years old in some ypotetical sit"ation I wo"ld probably be content to sit #"ietly in a retirement ome readin! "sain ain, ;B"iet= Te 2ower of Introverts in a 8orld Tat an't top Talkin!> 3413- rater tan listenin! to watever te e#"ivalent of d"bstep or dr"m 'n' bass is in 3499 in a crowded cl"b on te eve of te new

 

  vastly different place by tat point in time, and radically different from te world tat I was born into in 19C?. In my own lifetime lifetime I ave become conscio"s conscio"s of certain trends and tra/ectories tra/ectories tat will will de defi fine ne te te ba back ck!r !ro" o"nd nd of t tee twen twenty ty fi firs rstt cent cent"r "ry y an and d o" o"rr co coll llec ecti tive ve s"cc s"cces esse sess an and d acievem aci evements ents witin witin tat back!ro"nd back!ro"nd.. 8e ave ma/or ma/or problems problems to solve b"t also enormo"s enormo"s opport opp ort"ni "niti ties es to !rasp. !rasp. In eptem eptember ber 1999, 1999, wen wen I ad ad /"st /"st finis finised ed my st"die st"diess at D%ford D%ford *niversity and was preparin! to !o to &apan, I was not conscio"s of several of tese. In partic"lar, I ad very little awareness of te scale of world pop"lation and te #"estion of te relationsip  between o"r needs and wants on te one and and stocks of pysical reso"rces on te oter. In some ways I ad a kind of latent or defa"lt corn"copianism corn"copianism wic as been severely callen!e callen!ed d by te readin! I ave done so far in te s"cceedin! s"cceedin! decade decade and a alf. iscoverin! iscoverin! tat I was merely one person amon!st si% billion, and ten seven billion, as been at times a rater soberin! prospect  – in te same way tat previo"s !enerations absorbin!, say, opernicanism operni canism wo"ld ave no do"bt fo"nd it rater soberin! to discover a certain co!nitive or percept"al decenterin! decenterin! of teir position in  te cosmos . &on onne ad ad it tat no man is an an island. Today, oday, we are more interconnec interconnected ted tan ever via o"r new tecnolo!ies, and interconnected into a world pop"lation tat is different in ma!nit"de from te entire istory of mankind "p to 1?4 wen we passed te billion milestone. Tere are limits to corn"copiansmF, b"t also a place for it G. D"r era era is domin dominated ated by by two two diver!ent diver!e nt tra/ectories= on te one and, !reat ab"ndance and, indeed, yper7ab"ndance, yper7ab"ndance, partic"larly of information, ideas, comm"nication, e%can!es, and "man bein!sH and yet on te oter and  problems of !reat scarcity – or even certain cer tain conditions con ditions of yper7scarcity yper7scarc ity.. Tis diver!ence, diver!ence , in some C

ways, can lead to a rater sci)oid conscio"sness , a co!nitive dissonance in o"r disco"rses and a 

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cent"ry. Dne Dne does does not not,, of co" co"rs rse, e, nee need d to re reac actt to op oper erni nica cani nism sm o orr simi simila larr inte intell llec ect" t"al al or or co!n co!nit itiv ivee sif sifts ts iin n conscio"sness of scale and perspective in a way tat is ne!ative anoter e%ample bein! 8illiam $nders's 'Eartrise'  poto!rap taken in 19G? d"rin! te $pollo mission tat elped "s to cconceive onceive of o"r reality in cosmic terms – a  pictorial representation tat was ten ten e%tended in te 2ale <l"e ot ima!e of 1994 ta taken ken by te @ @oya!er oya!er 1 spaceprobe or te Aars "riosity 0over ima!e of o"r planet from Aars, 99 million miles away, in 341-. $n e%ample is te advice of Neil de rasse Tyson, wo, at <i! Tink, "r!ed "s to sim"ltaneo"sly be aware of scale – wit Eart bein!, as e points o"t, tiny in relative terms, as is te s"n, wic is ;kind of avera!e and tere's a "ndred billion oter stars in a !ala%y. $nd o"r !ala%y, !ala%y, te Ailky 8ay, 8ay, is one of F4 or 144 billion bil lion oter !ala%ies in te "niverse>. Noneteless, e e%orts "s to be reass"red by te fact tat even to"! we may be small, we are an intrinsic and inte!ral part of a lar!er lar!er interconnected wole. In a sense, te entire tra/ectory of o"r increase increased d scientific knowled!e over millennia as ens"red tat we ave become more and more conscio"s of o"r relative smallness witin te "niverse. Tis does not ave to mean by necessity necessity tat we ass"me tat o"r microcos microcosmic mic section of te macrocosm is someow any less important, owever. owever. If we are at some sta!e to meet intelli!ent life elsewere in te "niverse, owever, it mi!t be "sef"l for "s to learn "mility from o"r own e%periences of meetin!s between different "man c"lt"res s"c as te 'discovery' of te 'New 8orld' or te meetin! between two rater old worlds- of 193. 8e may at some sta!e need all te ambassadorial skills tat we can m"ster. m"ster. ee, ee, for for ins insta tanc nce, e, te te w wor ork k on entr entropy opy by N Nic ico ola lass e eor or!e !esc sc"70 "70oe oe!e !en n as w wel elll as t tee l"b l"b of of 0o 0ome me,, Limits to Growth , 19C3 and te <r"ndtland 0eport 19?C, Our Common Future. 5imits are implicit in te concept of 'planetary bo"ndaries' created by &oan 0ockstrom of te tockolm 0esilience entre wit te view, view, e%pressed in 3449, tat we ave !one past limits in two or tree bo"ndary areas !reeno"se !as loadin! of te atmospereH nitro!en poll"tion and te loss of biodiversity-. biodiversity-. . Aicael 5ee, ;( ;(nowin! nowin! o"r f"t"re= Te startlin! case for f"t"rolo!y> 3413 , p.1:- points o"t tat an early prediction of te finite limitations of coal s"pply was made in &evons, ;Te oal B"estion> 1?GF-. Dn te oter side of te e#"ation, tere are vie views ws of corn"copianism tat are tr"ly breattakin! in scope= for instance +reeman yson, ;ist"rbin! te *niverse> 19C9- wo posits a view of te "niverse wic may be ;!rowin! wito"t limit in ricness and comple%ity' wit 'life s"rvivin! forever' – a rater similar view in some senses to ("rt odel's idea of te ine%a"stible world of p"re matematics, as noted in avid 2itt and 2a"l amson, ;Te <iospere and and Noospere 0eader> 344:, p.C-. 6ere te #"estion of ab"ndance an and d scarcity operates in a far lar!er conte%t= alto"! reso"rces on o"r planet may be finite, we may be part of a "niverse tat is, as yson mi!t p"t it, infinite in all directions – wit conse#"ences tat we ave barely be!"n to "nderstand as a "man species. 6avi 6avin! n! only only /"st /"st !ot !ot "se "sed d to tte e eera ra o off te te )ett )ettab abyt yte, e, o one ne ccan an onl only y /"st /"st be! be!in in to ima! ima!ine ine wat wat te te era era of of te te yottabyte, ellabyte or dome!eme!rottebyte wo"ld be like. Dne won wonder derss if arle arless ick ickens ens,, tr trans anspor ported ted to o o"r "r day day via some some ssort ort of time time trave travell devic device, e, wo"l wo"ld d ssee ee it it as te  best or worst of all possible worlds, or rater rater a world e%istin! in some #"ant"m state between between te two. $ dinner dinner

 

  kind of collective collective 5ain!ian divided divided self. A"c of te former is to be celebrated celebrated and embraced embraced and ? can lead to enormo"s optimism abo"t te present and abo"t te f"t"re . Te latter, latter, owever, owever,  provides problems prob lems and callen!es callen!e s tat are enormo"s enor mo"s in scale and scope and can lead le ad to an in!rained in!rain ed  pessimism abo"t te f"t"re. In &"n!ian terms, m"c of o"r sense of pro!ress and advancement contains a kind of sadow side of profo"nd fears over te s"stainability and lon!evity lon!evity of o"r social 9 systems and civilisations . In many ways te story of o"r s"ccesses and fail"res in tis cent"ry will be determined by te way in wic wic  we ne ne!ot !otiat iatee t tee c call allen! en!es es pr provi ovided ded by te te diver diver!en !ences ces betwe between en yper yper77 14 ab"ndance   and yper7scarcity yper7scarcity.. In partic"lar, partic"lar, we are tasked wit te te process of arnessin! arnessin! te  power of e%ponential !rowt to stim"late positive developments and, on te oter side of te e#"ation, workin! workin! o"t ways in wic we can brin! stability to ne!ative or problematic problematic e%ponentials or sarp rises rises s"c as te (eelin! (eelin! c"rve c"rve of carbon carbon dio%ide dio%ide b"ild "p in te atmospere atmospere.. D"r task, task, terefore, is to ne!otiate and miti!ate certain forms of diminisin! ret"rns, and in oter areas take te benefti beneftiss and advanta advanta!es !es of accele accelera rati tin! n! ret"rn ret"rnss and economi economies es of scale scale.. D"r D"r !r !reat eatest est e%ponential of all is te rise of distrib"tion of and access to information= as I e%plored in my Epoc>, we live in a time of can!e in terms of  previo"s work, ;6yper ; 6yper 5iteracy in te E%ponential Epoc>, o"r access to and prod"ction of information and ideas tat is at least as profo"nd and far7reacin! as te "tenber!ian printin! revol"tion, if not more so. 6yperte%t is simply not te same tin! as te%t, in te same way tat a non7linear system composed of comple% and caotic feedback loops is not te same tin! as a linear linear or se#"ential se#"ential system system11. It is still re relati latively vely yo"n! yo"n! in istoric istorical al terms terms 13

avin! be!"n, in nin! Ted Nelson's 19G4 2ro/ect -, tand so its tr"e and ramific ram ificati ations ons arear!"ably, only be!innin! be!in to play o"t at tis ti s c"rrent c"rranad" ent moment momen in time. Te potential "tenber "tenber!ian !ian  printin! a!e saw a complete comple te sift in te ability to make copies wic fostered a readin! and writin! revol"tion. Today, te non7rivalro"s and !enerally non7e%cl"sive nat"re of bits is allowin! a similar  paradi!m sift of epic proportions in te capacity to make copies of doc"ments and ideas and so  party wit im, 5eibni) and @oltaire @oltaire wo"ld lead to a not entirely "ninterestin! "ninterestin! disco"rse on te matter matter.. &on Aicael reer, ;2ro!ress v. $pocalypse= $pocalypse= Te tories 8e T Tell ell D"rselves> 3413- ar!"es tat some of te ma/or contemporary myts of o"r time are divided between stories of lon!7term and ine%orable "man pro!ress on te one and, wic makes "s ar!"ably too optimistic abo"t te f"t"re and not aware eno"! of limits and risks, and stories tat centre on collapse tat tat make "s too pessimistic. reer sees te former as akin to a reli!io"s reli!io"s system, citin! ristoper 5asc, ;Te Tr"e and Dnly 6eaven= 2ro!ress and Its ritics>. $n e%ample of a narrative of  pro!ress over te co"rse of istory is te 8i!!isness described by 6e 6erbert rbert <"tterfield, ;Te 8i! Interpretation of 6istory> 19:1- or, alternatively alternatively,, te implicit belief in pro!ress tat lay at te eart of te Enli!tenment. Enli!tenment. It may  be te case tat tere ave always always been s"c polar e%tremes of na narrative rrative in all "man c"lt"res, b"t it is ar! ar!"able "able tat o"r contemporary period – !iven te revol"tionary nat"re of te post7"tenber! sift tat we are livin! witin – is one were tese diver!ences are writ partic"larly lar!e. l ar!e. $s well well as yp yper er7ab 7ab"nd "ndanc ance, e, te tere re is is of of co"rs co"rsee a yper yper7ab 7ab"nd "ndanc ancee of ways ways to pic pict"r t"ree it= it= one one estim estimate ate by isc isco, o, for e%ample, s"!!ested tat by 341C it wo"ld take one person more tan five million years to watc every video tat is online or, alternatively, tat it wo"ld take over F years to watc te amo"nt of video tat will cross !lobal networks every second in 341F. $ss"min! tat someow astrona"ts ad access to te internet, tere wo"ld at least  be plenty of entertainment for te lon! trip to somewere somewere like $lpa  enta"ri enta"ri wic, "sin! c"rrent tecnolo!y, tecnolo!y, mi!t take "p to 1GF,444 years , wic is not far off te total time tat "manity as so far e%isted – ttp=JJeartsky.or!JspaceJalpa7centa"ri7travel7time 9 6ere 6ere tte e tten ende dency ncy tto o see see t tee be best st aand nd wor worst st of of wo worl rlds ds at at t tee sa same me time time is emb embod odie ied d in Aar Aar!a !are rett $ $tw twoo ood' d'ss concept of te '"stopian', te mi%t"re of te "topian and dystopian. 14 om ometi etimes mes te inf inform ormati ation on e%plo e%plosio sion, n, for for ee%am %ample ple,, is referre referred d to as an an 'e%af 'e%afloo lood'. d'. Dr per peraps aps,, ') ')ett ettafl aflood ood'.'. 11 It is to be be noted noted tat tat rres esear earc c in into to comp comple% le% d dyna ynamic mical al syste systems, ms, pion pioneer eered ed by people people s"c s"c as Edwa Edward rd 5oren 5oren)) wit is investi!ations into weater patterns in te 19G4s, as crystallised into a new science in a relatively recent time frame, since te late 19?4s wit te work of people s"c as anis pysicist 2er <ak and te creation of or!anisations s"c as te anta +e Instit"te in te *$. 13 <e <elind lindaa <a <arne rnet, t, ;;Aem Aemory ory Aac Aacin ines= es= Te Evol"t Evol"tion ion of 6yper 6yperte% te%t> t> 341 341: : , p.Gp.G- ccite itess Ted Ted Nels Nelson' on'ss 19GF 19GF ?

definition of yperte%t as bein! ;a body of written or pictorial material interconnected in s"c a comple% way tat it co"ld not conveniently be presented or represented represented on paper>. In 19C e also added te concept concept of te%t tat is ;forms of writin! wic branc or perform on re#"estH tey are best best presented on comp"ter display screens.> screens.> Tis idea of brancin! ints at te tree7like arcitect"res of  yperte%t"al yperte%t"al interconnectedness.

 

  diff"se tem amon!st an ever wider demo!rapic 1:. If we accelerate accelerate yper7literacy yper7literacy or peraps wat re!ory *lmer mi!t call yper7electracyyper7electracyten we raise all sorts of possibilities for pro!ressions, advancements, inventions, discoveries and transformations, te scope of wic are "tterly beyond te traditional cate!ories and patterns of to"!t to" !t tat ave dominated dominated previo"s previo"s cent"ri cent"ries. es. Tat Tat is a reason reason for profo"nd profo"nd optimism optimism,, if not naKvee pan!lossian naKv pan!lossianism ism.. In partic"lar partic"lar,, we face te prospect prospect of ever more more rapid rapid e%pansio e%pansion n of o"r knowled!ee and "nderstandin! in a wide variety of frontiers, bot in terms of te o"ter world o"ter knowled! space spa ce or !eot !eoterm ermal al wells wells1  or t tee Eart Eart' 'ss oc ocea eans ns1F, fo forr inst instan ance ce-- and and o" o"rr inne innerr wor orld ldss conscio"sness and te ne"roscientific "nderstandin! of te brain and te mind, or te world of dreams tat as been been te st"dy of all sorts of people people since at least te tim timee of i!m"nd +re"d-. +re"d-. In tat sense, tose of "s alive today are livin! in a eady, stim"latin!, comple%, verti!ino"s and at times conf"sin! a!e of discovery 1G. iven te non7linear nat"re of can!e, can!e, it is is not easy to to cart ow tese vast advances and a!!re!ations in knowled!e will feed tro"! into practical pro/ects and social or!anisation1C. Tey may also lead lead to all manner of vis"al vis"al representations, representations, bot bot in terms of !raps and info!rapics- as well as in terms of mappin!, wit advances and paradi!m sifts as si!nificant si!nifica nt as te work of 2tolemy or <"ckminster <"ckminster +"ller's yma%ion yma%ion map in maps s"c as Aartin @ar!ic's ar!ic's map of te internet. 8atever occ"rs, occ"rs, owever, owever, it is likely tat by 3144 we will face a radically different "man world, at least as transformed as E"rope was one "ndred years or so after "tenbe "t enber!. r!. iven iven te pace of can!es and te velocity velocity wit wit wic wic new trends trends and tra/ecto tra/ectories ries emer!e,, it may be tat we e%perience emer!e e%perience transformations transformations so vast and far7reacin! far7reacin! on s"c a sort time scale tat it will be e%tremely callen!in! for istorians istorians cent"ries or indeed millennia aead of "s to "npick precisely wat was appenin!, and wat events were infl"encin! oter events, all witin a sort frame of time. time. $cceleration $cceleration at times seems seems to be te very allmark of te a!e in w wic ic we live. It certainly makes makes writin! writin! abo"t te present and te te f"t"re enormo"sly enormo"sly callen!in!, callen!in!, since 1? almost as soon as one as written a sentence it seems to be dated . In avid 6o"le's terms, te Informa Info rmation tion $!e as !iven !iven way to a 'ift 'ift $!e' $!e' were were accelera acceleratin tin! ! can!e can!e is embedded embedded into te very fabric of te #"otidian. $s in te previo"s work, I will not make precise predictions, in lar!e part beca"se of te 1:

1

1F

1G

1C 1?

$s dis disc"s c"ssed sed by 6 6aro arold ld $belso $belson, n, (en (en 5ede 5edeen en and and 6 6arry arry 5ew 5ewis, is, ;<lown ;<lown to <it <its> s> 341 3413, 3, p.G p.G-. -. It m may ay seem seem an obvio"s point, b"t it is one wose ramifications are vast= printin! allowed for an e%pansion of copies of te%ts, b"t tese were limited to te pysical pysical n"mber in e%istence based on an economy economy of atoms. In te economy of bits, tat te%t can be reprod"ced, essentially ad infinit"m, wito"t a loss of #"ality as wit analo!"e entities- and is non7 rivalro"s in te sense tat my cons"mption cons"mption of te te%t does not precl"de yo"r cons"mp cons"mption tion of it. Te n"mber of copies of a certain te%t tat is now in te p"blic domain and free from any copyri!t infractions – for e%ample, ;34,444 5ea!"es *nder te ea> by b y &"les @ @erne erne – is now essentially essentially,, and for all practical p"rposes, infinite, wereas at a point in very recent istorical time tere was a specific n"mber of copies of it, all prod"ced on paper, and all owned by te specific people wo ad access and property ri!ts to tose pysical, limited, finite copies in a sense, now, te te%t is owned by every sin!le person on te planet, at least potentially, alto"! not yet in every lan!"a!e written on te planet-. Te a"tors cite Tomas &efferson's description of an idea as bein! similar= ;its  pec"liar caracter....is caracter....is tat no one possesses te less, beca"se every oter poss possesses esses te wole of it.> st 8illiam +er!"son, Scientific American 1  $pril 341:, makes te point tat di!itisation led by te $ri)ona eolo!ical "rvey is allowin! te a!!re!ation of information on !eotermal wells s"rveyed in te 19C4s, ?4s and 94s b"t wic ave been sittin! "n"sed in filin! cabinets since ten. es espit pitee fe fears ars ove overr t tee poten potentia tiall en envir vironme onmenta ntall dama! dama!ee in invol volved ved,, we may see a '!old '!old r"s r"s' ' of of mi minin nin! ! an and d e%ploration for metals s"c as !old, copper, man!anese and cobalt from te ocean floor, wit a plan for s"c a development bein! p"t o"t by te *nited Nations International eabed $"tority in 341:. $ !reat !reat d deal eal of o o"r "r iinve nventi ntions ons and dis discov coveri eries es d depe epend nd "pon "pon "s b bein ein! ! open open tto o tem. tem. $s Aarc Aarcel el 2ro" 2ro"st st p"t p"t it= it= ;Te real voya!e of discovery consists consists not in seekin! new landscape landscapess b"t in avin! new eyes.> It is improbable tat e was referrin! to te oo!le !lass at te time, "nless e ad /"st ret"rned from time travellin! to te f"t"re. Ti Tiss is part partic" ic"lar larly ly tr"e tr"e if we d deve evelop lop te te kind kind of of 'la 'later teral al t tink inkin! in!'' es espo" po"sed sed by Ed Edwar ward d de <ono <ono and tte e open open77 minded 'conve% tinkin!' described by Nassim Nicolas Taleb. Ti Time me iiss of te essen essence. ce. 2at 2atric rick k i i%on %on,, ;+"t" ;+"t"rew rewise ise>> 3 344C 44C-- points points o"t ta tat, t, aatt te te time time e e was was writi writin!, n!, :4L of sales co"ld be lost if a website took more tan :4 seconds to load. Tis acceleratin! pace as led to a co"nterpoint in manifestations s"c as te low +ood movement.

 

  overwelmin! risk of /oinin! te ranks of tose feat"red in a work s"c as an ardner, ;+"t"re <abble> 3413-19.   It is a !reat !reat callen! callen!ee to be tr"ly tr"ly savvy34  abo"t te te f"t"re. f"t"re. ome ome potentia potentiall  pro!ressions can be b e disc"ssed vol"bly vol"bl y and ten t"rn o"t not to occ"r o cc"r wilst oter developments develo pments may 31  be less widely disc"ssed b"t t"rn o"t to ave !reater lon!evity . ome of te most cerised cerised or most yped f"t"re developments, eralded as bein! /"st aro"nd te corner, instead seem to be  perennial vapo"rware. Dter #"ieter developments, made "nder te radar of p"blicity and attention7!rabbin! attention 7!rabbin!,, inte!rate temselves temselves into o"r lon!7term and and o"r everyday lives. +"rtermore +"rtermore tere is te pervasive effect of $mara's law, were we tend to overestimate te effects of a can!e in te sort7term and and "nderestimate "nderestimate its lon!7term impact. impact. 8atever te precise precise can!es, tere tere is no do"bt tat we live in an era of tr"ly vast transition and can!e, and tis makes predictions  partic"larly callen!in!= cal len!in!= sometimes it mi!t mi! t seem more pr"dent, for e% e%ample, ample, to sketc o"t possible p ossible areas of transition rater tan makin! doctrinaire or do!matic statements abo"t partic"lar can!es in detail. <y New Year's Year's Eve 3499, for instance, instance, we may ave te be!innin!s be!innin!s of an interplanetary interplanetary civilisa civi lisatio tion. n. Icar"s Icar"s Interstell Interstellar's ar's 2ro/ec 2ro/ectt Icar"s, Icar"s, 2ro/ect 2ro/ect 6eli"s 6eli"s and 2ro/ect 2ro/ect Tin Tin Tin mi!t be commonplace commonpl ace entities. pace mi!t be criss7crosse criss7crossed d by micro spacecraft s"c s"c as te crowdf"nded "beatss of te 2ocket pacecraft "beat pacecraft pro/ect. 8e mi!t ave a moon colony wic mi!t or mi!t 19

2et 2eter er  enn ennin! in!,, ;T ;Talk alkin! in! < <ac ack k to tte e Aa Aaci cine= ne=  omp omp"te "ters rs and and 6"man 6"man $spira $spiratio tion> n> 1999 1999,, p.p.- cit cites es te te famo famo"s "s  prediction, wic may be apocrypal, of Tomas 8atson, 8atson, cairman of I<A, wo apparently apparently said in 19: tat ;I tink tere is a world market for maybe five comp"ters.> comp"ters.> 8illiam (elvin sstated tated p"blicly tat 'eavier tan air' flyin! macines were impossible. 0obert oddard in te 1934s and 19:4s s"!!ested tat rockets wo"ld neve neverr !o "p in space. 6.N.<railsford wrote in 191 tat national bo"ndaries were finally fi%ed and tat tere was little cance of f"rter wars between te Msi% reat 2owers Irvin! +iser declared tat te stock market was likely to ride a !reat deal i!er a week before te 1939 8all treet ras. 2redictions are easy to a"dit in retrospect wen certain tra/ectories ave played temselves o"t, b"t not easy to make at te time. $s Niels <or is said to ave encaps"lated it= ;2rediction ;2rediction is very ard to do. Especially abo"t te f"t"re.> Tis is of co"rse partic"larly tr"e for oter species, none of wom can tink abo"t te f"t"re, if aniel ilbert, ;t"mblin! on 6appiness> 344G- is ri!t "nless of co"rse we ave fallen prey to antropocentrism and simply do not "nderstand te ways in wic oter species tink or plan for te f"t"re-. ilbert as added te verb 'ne%tin!' to te lan!"a!e. 2res"mably if we are are ne%tin! wen sendin! a te%t messa!e, we are ne%tin! te%tin!. $ dif different ferent view of te matter is s"mmed "p by * comp"ter scientist $lan (ay, (ay, wo ar!"ed tat ;te best way to predict te f"t"re is to invent it>. $ction may speak lo"der tan words in tis conte%t – as &..<allard ad it, ;If eno"! people predict sometin!, it won't appen>. 34 $la $lan n or ordon don,, ;+"t"r ;+"t"ree avvy> avvy> 344 344??- points points o"t fail fail"re "ress in p pred redict iction ionss s" s"c c aass te pre7mi pre7mille llenni nnial al ttens ension ion over over te potential Y3( disaster. disaster. 2eraps in te twenty7first cent"ry and beyond we mi!t develop a system of metrics peraps called 2redictipoints- wic assess te n"mber of predictive statements abo"t te f"t"re, wit timin!s, made by commentators and sootsayers. sootsayers. Eac commentators' predictipoints totals wo"ld terefore f"nction rater like te feedback system in e<ay or Y Yelp elp wic ave been instr"mental in te tr"st element of tose fora. omebody mi!t predict, for instance, te e%can!e rate between te dollar and te yen on 1 st &an"ary te ne%t year, or te n"mber of flamin!oes in e%istence on tat date, or te n"mber of places wit water fo"nd in te "niverse by tat date, or predict te total market sare of Tesla Aotors or te "ptake of te Nissan 5eaf on tat date, and ten be  /"d!ed accordin! to te veracity of teir prediction predictions. s. Dver time viewers of tese predictions co"ld ten !ravitate to te elpic oracles tey find most acc"rate – or, alternatively, te kind of 'professors of foresi!t envisa!ed by 6..8ells 6..8 ells in a << broadcast in 19:3. 31 $n iinte nteres restin! tin! perspe perspecti ctive ve  ere ere is b bein ein! ! pr provi ovided ded by te te a!!r a!!re!a e!ation tion of lar!e lar!e amo"nt amo"ntss of data. data. $s an an e% e%amp ample, le, data vis"alisers &er Torp and Aark 6ansen ave depicted te rise and sometimes fall, or oter times fall and ten re7rise- of tecnolo!ical trends disc"ssed in te 1FG: iss"es of Popular Science ma!a)ine since 1?C3 at teir free online arcive. $ similar tool wit lar!er scope is oo!le's N!ram N!ram @iewe @iewerr wic allows people to find o"t ow  prevalent a partic"lar word or prase as been been in books over te co"rse of cent"ries. cent"ries. Ere) $iden $iden and &ean7<aptiste Aicel, ;*ncarted= <i! ata as a 5ens on 6"man "lt"re> 341:- posit tat te N!ram @iewer is akin to te invention of te telescope, allowin! "s a lon!7term panoramic vision of te rises and falls of trends in "man istory over te lon!7term Tis r"ns in parallel wit so"rces s"c s"c  as te T Twitter witter Trendmap wic wic provides ever more acc"rately localised localised information on wat is trendin! ri!t at te moment aro"nd te !lobe. In a similar vein, wat wo"ld also be partic"larly "sef"l wo"ld be a site tat a!!re!ates proposals and ideas for inventions, developments and new enterprises and ten analyses to wat e%tent tey ave been completed in reality. reality. If it doesn't e%ist already, already, it wo"ld be !reat to ave a metric system tat rates te e%tent to wic a proposed invention or development as been created – wit a yperloop bein! at, say, ?4L at a partic"lar moment in time. Ten a reader co"ld scan a lar!e list of entities, see at wat broad level tey are all developin!, and ten !ain access to f"rter reso"rces of information on tem as well as action plans on ow to contrib"te to teir manifestation.

 

  not incl"de a l"nar ark 33 and mi!t be linked to "s by laser comm"nication tat is as easy as kypin! somebody-, somebody-, or colonies on oter planets 3:, and mi!t be by tat point te first species tat e%ists in different different parts of te "niverse – for all we know at te moment, !iven !iven o"r c"rrent state and "nderstandin! of ETI, te rake e#"ation and te +ermi parado% and !iven wat 2a"l avies refers to as te 'eerie silence' from o"r investi!ations of te cosmos to date-, te first one to do so. It may be tat an interplanetary civilisation is part of te very teleolo!y of "manity 3. pace civilisation may mirror o"r earlier movement o"t of $frica F4,444 to ?4,444 years a!o, and may f"nction as a similar form of 'e%tinction ins"rance' ins"rance '3F. It may not= not= on te te oter and, and, and ass"min! ass"min! 3G tat we ave mana!ed to avoid vast cataclysms tat drastically lower pop"lation levels , we may be limited to pacesip pacesip Eart3C and ensconced in te task of providin! food, water and basic material !oods to f"fill te lowest level Aaslow Aaslow needs of many of te ten billion or beyond wo are alive at tat point in istory and, at te same time, attemptin! to maintain, conserve and steward as m"c of o"r planetary reso"rces reso"rces as possible. $ccordin! $ccordin! to te +ood and $!ric"lt"re $!ric"lt"re Dr!anisation Dr!anisation of te *nited Nations in 3449, sometin! in te order of 1.43 billion people are "nderno"rised today 3?. 8it it  te te ri! ri!tt wi will ll an and d ima! ima!in inat atio ion n it mi! mi!tt be po poss ssib ible le to cr crea eate te a worl world d wit wito" o"tt s" s"c c 33

3:

3

3F 3G 3C 3?

Te iidea dea of pa part rt of a moo moon n colony colony bein! bein! a  N$ N$ lib library rary ta tatt acts acts as a kind kind of ins" ins"ran rance ce p poli olicy cy or e%peri e%perimen mentt in Talebian anti7fra!ility in case of a problem treatenin! life on Eart was voiced, for instance, by te E"ropean pace $!ency's $!ency's cief scientist r <ernard +oin! in 344. $t w wat at poin pointt in  ist istory ory,, for e%am e%ample ple,, will will te descen descenden dents ts o off te Aars Aars ociet ociety' y'ss Aars Aars $nalo! $nalo!"e "e 0 0ese esearc arc  tations act"ally be located on te 0ed 2lanetO Dr, to almost #"ote $lfred $lfred 0"ssel 8allace 8allace in 194C – is Aars abitable yetO am amero eron n m mit it and Evan Evan avie avies, s, ;Emi! ;Emi!rat ratin! in! <eyond <eyond Ear Eart= t= 6"ma 6"man n$ $dap daptat tation ion and pace pace olo oloni) ni)ati ation> on> 3413- p"t space e%ploration in te conte%t of "man istory wit case st"dies s"c as te preistoric settlement of te $rctic aro"nd F444 years a!o and te 2acific Islands abo"t :444 years a!o, s"!!estin! tat it is part of o"r evol"tionary nat"re to adapt o"rselves to callen!in! circ"mstances. "c "c an ar ar!" !"me ment nt is p"t p"t fforw orwar ard d by tep tepen en 6awk 6awkin in! ! aatt <i! <i! T Tin ink, k, 3414 3414.. "c "c aas, s, fo forr in inst stan ance ce,, t tee di disa sappe ppear aran ance ce of tte e Ear Eart t's 's m ma! a!ne neti ticc fiel field. d. Te ter term m come comess ffrom rom 0.<"ck 0.<"ckmin minste sterr +"ll +"ller er,, ;Dpe ;Dperat ratin! in! Aan"al Aan"al for pa paces cesip ip Eart> Eart> 19G919G9-.. $cc $ccordi ordin! n! to 2eter 2eter  lei leick ck of te 2ac 2acific ific Ins Instit" tit"te, te, ssome ometi tin! n! in te order order of 1:F mill million ion peop people le wi will ll die die befor beforee 3434 beca"se of a lack of safe drinkin! water and sanitation. $s noted in my earlier work, water desalination desalination is one of te most important frontiers of o"r knowled!e, since as noted in avid Petland, ;Te End of $b"ndance= Economic ol"tions to 8ater 8ater carcity> 3411, p.9- 9CL of te water on te planet is salty ocean water. yntia <ennett, ;<l"e 0evol"tion= *makin! $merica's 8ater 8ater risis> 3411- sees water ab"ndance as an ill"sion. epleted a#"ifers are a ma/or problem, wic is wy te discovery of two lar!e a#"ifers in (enya in eptember 341: tro"! satellites and radar was enco"ra!in!. enco"ra!in!. Erik eedo"se, ;Dcean D"tpost= Te +"t"re of 6"mans 5ivin! *nderwater> 3414, p.9:- points o"t tat by some estimates we ave e%plored only abo"t FL of o"r oceans wic cover C4L of te planet- and one of o"r f"t"re tra/ectories may be te rise of a#"ana"ts and "nderwater cities. Tere are c"rrently "nderwater researc r esearc labs s"c as Aarine5ab and $#"ari"s wile arcitect &ac#"es 0o"!erie as  been desi!nin! "nderwater cities since 19C4H anoter arcitect of "nderwater abitation abitation is @ @incent incent alleba"t.. $noter e%ample in tis spere is &onatan 6a"ser's s"bmer!ed '6ydropolis' otel. &avier ebis"a"bm ;<io7 $rcitect"re> 341:, p.3- points o"t tat "nderwater cities co"ld make "se of te tendency towards biomimicry in arcitect"re by copyin! te formation of beavers' lod!es. $t te time of writin!, ina is e%plorin! an oceana"t oceana"t tra/ectory wit te s"bmersible s"bmersible &ialon! beco becomin! min! te world's dee deepest7divin! pest7divin! state7sponsored researc vessel. ince we came, in evol"tionary terms, from te sea, peraps it mi!t be nat"ral for "s to ret"rn tere – even if not necessarily in a semi7a#"atically evolved format s"c as te one envisa!ed in ("rt @onne!"t, @onne!"t, ;alapa!os> 19?F-. If not completely "nderwater, and partic"larly as o"r floatin! point calc"lations improve- we mi!t instead develop floatin! cities tat may or may not one day resemble te kind of idea envisa!ed in te work ;ylorion ity> by D)an 6a)irlar at eviant$0T. eviant$0T. $n e%ample ere is te Ni!erian arcitect ("nle $deyemi's $frican 8 8ater ater ities 2ro/ect or te work of te easteadin! easteadin! Instit"te. $ prototype ere ere are te already e%istin! @ery @ery 5ar!e +loatin! tr"ct"res @5+- s"c as &apan's Ae!a7+loat r"nway or @anco"ver @anco"ver or New Y York's ork's floatin! eliports. Te &apan ociety of teel onstr"ction proposed a floatin! city in one of te fo foci ci of Dsaka <ay, as disc"ssed in .A.8an! and <.T.8an!, <.T.8an!, ;@ery ;@ery 5ar!e +loati +loatin! n! tr"ct"res> tr"ct" res> 344C , p.1?-. 8e mi!t also see te development developm ent of floatin! principalities like ealand or places wit /"risdictions o"tside te framework of e%istin! or establised nation7states. $lready we ave a pro/ect s"c as tatoil's 6ywind wic was te world's first floatin! wind t"rbine off te coast of 2eteread, cotland. cotland. 2ro/ects s"c as &ac#"e &ac#"ess 0o"!erie's eaDrbiter may become "bi#" "bi#"ito"s. ito"s. ities may adapt to floodin! by "sin! tecni#"es s"c as te desi!n by ma ompany in Tailand, were water wo"ld be allowed into te city to fill reservoirs, !row rice, and ten be filtered o"t into a river.

 

  "nderno"risment at all by 3144. $t te same time, owever, "nderno"risment owever, we may be e%tremely b"sy workin! to avoid a 0acel arsonian arsonian 'silent sprin!' of widespread widespread environmental and ecolo!ical catastrope wic may take "p m"c of o"r ener!y and reso"rces mi%ed, peraps, wit te ever present dan!er of 'n"clear winter '39-. $ !reat !reat deal deal depends depends on o"r ability ability to coose coose and select select virt"o virt"o"s "s spirals spirals rater tan vicio"s ones. Dn te oter and, tere may be si!nificant can!es tat f"ndamentally alter te bo"ndaries and limitations witin witin wic we operate and redefine te central #"estion at te eart of economics  – te relationsip between scarce reso"rces and ab"ndant needs and wants. 6ere, a!ain, it is temptin! to resort to an anecdotal approac to describe te scale and type of te e%traordinary can!es in information information and idea proliferation proliferation tat ave occ"rred in my own lifetim lifetime. e. 8en I went to st"dy at D%ford *niversity in 199G a newspaper article was a finite entity, printed on paper and limite lim ited d to t tee certai certain n n"mb n"mber er of copie copiess tat tat were were printe printed d an and d distr distrib ib"te "ted, d, "s"al "s"ally ly,, wi wit tin in a !eo!rapically !eo!rapic ally limited area local comm"nities in te case of local newspapers newspapers and nation7states nation7states in te case of national national ones-. $t te time of writin!, writin!, in 341 ass"min! ass"min! I don't break break typo!rapical typo!rapical fi%ity and rewrite tis later-, a random newspaper article s"c as Aark Aiodownik, ;Te perovskite li!tb"lb moment for solar power> p"blised by The Observer Observer on "nday 3 Aarc 341nd  is an entity tat is not limited to tose wo pay for tat partic"lar p"blication p"blication and is freely available bot across space bein! readable by anyone on te planet wit an internet connection- and time ass"min! tat te p"blication does not remove it at some sta!e, it will end"re for as lon! as o"r di!ital networks, or indeed civilisations, temselves-, and is reprod"cible to, for all intents and  p"rposes, an infinite level wito"t loss of #"ality in te process pr ocess of copyin! and wito"t de!radation de!rada tion of te #"ality of te copy over time. Df co"rse tere are certain p"blications wo ave cosen to ne!otiate te economics or freeconomics- of te period by coosin! to erect paywalls or "se s"bsrciption models to limit te amo"nt of material tat is available freely, and tere is not a p"blication in te world tat as not received profo"nd e%istential and administrative callen!es as a res"lt of tis sift, b"t te clear transformation in istorical terms is te fact tat previo"sly all articles ad to be stored eiter in teir paper forms wic ad to be directly paid for by an individ"al and ten kept in pysical form, wic ten decreased in #"ality over time- or in "man memory :4, wereas now we ave access to a vast proportion of all te articles p"blised in all of te ma!a)ines and newspapers in te entire world worl d in almost any locatio location n at te to"c of a b"tton. b"tton. Te e%isten e%istence ce of links at a site s"c as onlinenewspapers. onlinenew spapers.com com ar!"es empatically a!ainst te c"rio"s notion tat is sometimes propa!ated tat te information e%plosion as led to a narrowin! of ori)ons. "c a sift to yper7ab"ndance yper7ab"ndance witin a lifetime lifetime is di))yin!, verti!ino"s, verti!ino"s, and e%ilaratin!, and as vast ramifications tat can barely be ima!ined wilst one lives tro"! it – after all, as &ames <eni!er, ;Te ontrol 0evol"tion> 19?G- ar!"ed, people are rarely aware at te time of wat will will later later be considered considered te te tr"ly transce transcenden ndentt iss"es of teir teir a!e. a!e. It even as te te c"rio"s c"rio"s e%istential e%istenti al by7prod"ct tat at times it becomes diffic"lt diffic"lt to remember #"ite wat life was like in te days before te ;6"ffin!ton 2ost> ad even be dreamt of wen a newspaper article was an entity tat e%isted only in te previo"s form and ad not yet !rad"ated or transposed to te c"rrent 39

In 34 3414 14 te te <" <"lle lletin tin o off te $tomic $tomic cie cienti ntists sts pla place ced d te wor world ld at at si si% % min"te min"tess to midn midni! i!tt on ttei eirr ooms oomsday day lock, in lar!e part beca"se beca"se of te c"rrent proliferation of n"clear weapons. In te conte%t of talks between 8asin!ton and Aoscow for a follow7on a!reement to te trate!ic $rms 2roliferation Treaty tey did, owever, assert tat ;8e ;8e are poised to bend te arc of istory toward a world fr free ee of n"clear weapons>. "c a world co"ld  be created if lots of co"ntries followed te e%ample e%ample of states s"c as o" o"t t $frica or *kraine wo !ave "p teir weapons. iven tat te +ederation of $merican cientists ar ar!"es !"es tat tere are abo"t 33,G44 stockpiled n"clear weapons scattered aro"nd te world CC44 of wic are still f"nctional-, tere is still a !reat deal of work to do. nd es escri cribin bin! ! t tee devel developm opment ent of of simpl simplee perov perovski skite te so solar lar cell cellss wit wit ef effic ficien iencie ciess p"sn p"sn! ! 34L 34L by a tteam eam led by by r

:4

6enry nait at D%ford *niversity. *niversity. 6en 6ence, ce, of co"rs co"rse, e, te te fea fearr ta tatt rapid rapid tecn tecnolo olo!ic !ical al can can!e !e le leads ads to ''bio biolo! lo!ica icall atrop atropy' y' – for for e%amp e%ample, le, te te notio notion n tat we "se o"r memory less beca"se we "se devices more and more to remember tin!s. $n alternative view is tat we "se o"r memory in a different way, rater tan 'less'.

 

  manifestation. Dne finds oneself manifestation. oneself sometimes rememberin rememberin! ! te world of te very near and personal  past wit present p resent modes of activity a ctivity almost implicitly, and falsely, encoded into tose memories. It seems sta!!erin! sta!!erin! and bi)arre now to remember a world were a newspaper article was read only on  paper and ten almost certainly never seen a!ain or rater never7seeable a!ain, "nless one made very special special efforts efforts to access limited limited pysical pysical arcives arcives in wic wic to read read it a!ain-. a!ain-. $ss"mi $ss"min! n! a contin"ation of tis era, tat article written in Aarc 341 will be as readable and accessible in 343 or 313 or 3441 as it was wen it was first cyber7printed. It is a c"rio"s e%perience today to read a di!itised version of a story or article tat was composed and written in paper form in, say, 199G wen tat transition transition was in embryo embryo b"t ad not f"lly occ"rred occ"rred yet. yet. ince tey do not not ave yper yperte% te%t"a t"all links links to tem, tem, tose tose artic article less are essen essenti tiall ally y a diff differe erent nt order order of entity entity an and d teir teir differe dif ference nce is terefore terefore one of kind rater rater tan merely one of de!ree. de!ree. ome ome people ave lived tro"! tr o"!  perio periods ds were were can!e can!e was was relat relative ively ly limit limited ed and, and, perap peraps, s, ad marke markedly dly diff differe erent nt e%periences e%perienc es of personal memory. memory. In a time of enormo"s and acce acceleratin! leratin! can!e, can!e, te process of memory mem ory and personal personal narrativ narrative7m e7makin akin! ! is a radicall radically y differe different nt one. Te way tat tin!s were twenty years a!o, for e%ample, now seems in many respects like te mores and practices of cent"ries a!o. ome o me of te te rela relatio tions nsips ips betwe between en ab"nda ab"ndanc ncee and scarci scarcity ty ar aree c"rren c"rrently tly diff diffic" ic"lt lt to anticipate wit acc"racyH we mi!t, for e%ample, ave si!nificant reso"rces from elsewere in te "niverse, for e%ample tro"! asteroid minin! by s"c as eep pace Ind"stries or 2lanetary 0eso"rces :1. Te ramific ramificatio ations ns from entitie entitiess s"c as te 6"man 6"man <rain 2ro/ect 2ro/ect:3,   te 6"man onnectome 2ro/ect or te <rain $ctivity Aap are enormo"s, and by 3144 we will no do"bt ave seen e%traordinary advances advances in comp"tin! comp"tin! wit everytin! from te first e%aflop comp"ter capable of a billion billion calc"lations per second- to ne"romorpic comp"ters, clo"d comp"tin! ::  or #"ant"m comp"ters:.  It may not be merely a semantic semantic difference difference if we evolve evolve to a semantic web. :1

"c "c  an event" event"ali ality ty was was ffore oresee seen n in er erard ard D'Neil D'Neill, l, ;Te ;Te 6i! 6i! +ront +rontier ier>> 19CG 19CG-. -. "san "san To Tomas mas,, 0e"te 0e"ters, rs, Nov 31, 341:, points o"t tat meteorites yield si!nificant amo"nts of precio"s metals s"c as platin"m, rodi"m, iridi"m, reni"m, osmi"m, r"teni"m, palladi"m, !ermani"m !ermani"m and !old. 0esearc firm <ernstein notes ta tatt a bi! asteroid called 1G 2syce may contain eno"! nickel7iron to satisfy makind's c"rrent demand for millions of years. $!encies s"c as N$$ are workin! on asteroids and meteroites for two reasons= firstly, for possible reso"rces, and secondly to avoid te kind of dama!e tat was done by an asteroid GF million years a!o tat led to mass e%tinctions  partic"larly of dinosa"rs – see for instance instance 5eon ilver and 2eter c"lt), ;eolo!ical Implica Implications tions of Impacts of 5ar!e $steroids $steroids and omets on te Eart> 19?3-. Te elyabinsk scenario in 341: was fort"nately rater more limited. $ccordin! to iane ylvester, ;Inventions, 0obots, +"t"re> 19?, p.?C- asteroid minin! co"ld lead to a !old r"s similar to tat of alifornia in 1?9. It mi!t even be possible one day to re redirect direct comets from te Dort clo"d or ("iper belt in order to release water to oter parts of te "niverse – as noted by Nancy $tkinson in

Universe Today, Ft Dctober 3411, tere is evidence from te 6erscel infrared space observatory tat comet 6artley 3, wic ori!inates from te ("iper belt, contains water wit te ;same cemical si!nat"re as te Eart's oceans> wic stren!tens claims tat Eart's water may ave ori!inated at least in part from a comet  bombardment. :3 $n in inter terest estin! in! p para aralle llell pro/ec pro/ectt is te te D Dpen pen8 8orm p pro/ ro/ect ect,, w wic ic is is open open so"rc so"rcee an and d aims aims to cre create ate te worl world's d's first virt"al or!anism in a comp"ter, a .ele!ans nematode. $s Eric 0aymond p"ts it, ;iven eno"! eyeballs, all  b"!s are sallow.> sallow.> :: In an article in ired , 33nd +ebr"ary 3413, arl <ass ED of $"todesk Inc- described te era of de facto 'infinite comp"tin!' 7 ;8e are e%periencin! a new economic model= a problem tat takes one 2* 14,444 seconds to solve costs abo"t 1Gp. <"t wit te scalability of te clo"d, w wee can apply 14,444 2*s to te same proble problem m and tey will solve it it in a second. olvin! te problem 14,444 times faster still costs 1Gp. <ein! able to apply infinitely more reso"rces to a problem for no additional cost is a first in istory istor y.> 6e sees an overab"ndance were we ave essentially more comp"tin! power tan tan we can "se – b"t describes tis as as merely a 'be!innin!'. In a world were tere are at least a billion transistors per person, it is interestin! to pa"se and reflect tat tis may well be simply early days in te evol"tion of comp"tin!. : In aan n art artic icle le on a avi vid d ee"tsc "tsc, , 0ivka ivka a alc lce en, n, The !ew "or#er , 3nd Aay 3411, ar!"es tat ;wit one milliont

of te ardware of an ordinary laptop, a #"ant"m comp"ter co"ld store as many bits of information as tere are  particles in te "niverse.> eordie- 0ose's 5aw may replace ordon- Aoore's 5aw. 5aw. $lto"! #"ant"m comp"tin! is only in its infancy at te time of writin!, in November 341: it was reported by a team at anada's imon +raser *niversity tat te record for #"bits was e%tended to tirty nine min"tes.

 

  <y 3144 te inese Tiane73 s"percomp"ter, at te time of writin! te fastest in te world operatin! at ::.?G petaflopJs- may look similar to te way tat a comp"ter s"c as te I<A GF4 from 19F:- or te $pple 1 from 19CG- look today, or even te way tat te 2ascaline <laise 2ascal'ss calc"lator of 1G3- looks today:F. 5aptops and com 2ascal' comp"ter p"ter systems systems may be widely self7b"ilt self7b"ilt on an open so"rce model, b"ildin! on prototypes s"c as ean ross and <"nnie 6"an!'s 2ro/ect  Novena. 8e may see access to te internet bein! distrib"ted ever more widely, widely, manifestin! te dream of an 'Internet of Tin!s' driven by people s"c as (evin $ston $ston and $le%andra escamps7 escamps7 :G onsino ons ino or, or, alt alterna ernative tively ly,, 'pysica 'pysicall comp"ti comp"tin!', n!', 'A3A' 'A3A' , 'pervasi 'pervasive ve comp"ti comp"tin!', n!', '"bi#"it '"bi#"ito"s o"s :C comp"tin!', 'ambient intelli!ence', 'web7a"!mented tin!s', '"bicomp' or te 'onlife world' -, wic may elp to provide constantly "pdated information tat elps to facilitate all manner of interactions tat break down barriers of space and time and reform"late and resape comm"nities as well as individ"all lives. $s /"st one e%ample, individ"a e%ample, we may ave everytin! everytin! from "mbrellas "mbrellas wic report to "s te meterolo!ical predictions for precipitation tat day to alarm clocks tat feed "s information  based on train tr ain times t imes and allow "s more time to sleep wen tey t ey are delayed to te "se of location7 loc ation7  based services s"c as +o"rs#"are tat mi!t be encoded into an ornament at ome tat tells o"r familiess were we are opef"lly wit te caveat tat we ave f"ll control over it, from te point of familie view of privacy- :?. $s more more and more more of tese tese kind kind of device devicess becom becomee entre entrenc nced ed into o"r :9 everyday lives on an increasin! n"merical scale   and, indeed, tere are more and more of wat avid 0ose refers to as 'encanted ob/ects' 4 aro"nd "s- it is likely tat we will become more and more acc"stomed acc"stomed to tem and tink of tem less and less. $t some sta!e, it wi will ll be important to describe to s"cceedin! !enerations #"ite wat life was like wito"t s"c a "bi#"ity. $s a f"rter e%ample ere of te kind of barterin!, tr"ckin! tr"ckin! and e%can!in! tat is more and more possible as a res"lt of s"c interconnections and conver!ences, Aarissa Aayer of Yaoo noted tat on a recent +riday ni!t in 341 wic se describes as te year of te 'tippin! point' of tecnolo!y-, 1F4,444 people ad let stran!ers stay in teir o"ses tro"! $irbnb, more tan 1.F :F

:G

:C :? :9

$nt $nton ony y Town Townsen send, d, ; ;mar martt ities ities== <i! at ata, a,  ivi ivicc 6a 6acke ckers rs and and te B"est B"est for for a Ne New w *topia *topia>> 3414 3414-- points points o"t tat te typical 2* in a contemporary smartpone is ten times more powerf"l tan te ray71 s"percomp"ter installed at te 5os $lamos National 5aboratory in 19CG. In anoter view tat stresses te p penomenal enomenal rate of can!e in a tiny amo"nt of istorical time, Intel ED 2a"l Dtellini stated in 3413 tat a smartpone today as more comp"tin! power tan all all of N$$ did wen it p"t a man on te moon in 19G9. +orrester, a market researc firm,  pro/ects tat by 341G tere will be over a billion billion smartpones worldwide. <arry 5ibert, ;Te Aobile 0evol"tion Intelli!ence on emand-> 341:- asserts tat more people c"rrently ave mobile pones tan ave electricity or r"nnin! water, wic obvio"sly raises te #"estion of ow te information tat can be sared via pones can be "sed to provide tose two were it is c"rrently absent. Te ever acceleratin! pace of development development b"ilds on te estimate by 0icard 8"rman, ;Information $n%iety> 19?9- tat te weekday edition of te !ew "or# "or# Tmes contained more information in 19?9 tan te avera!e person in seventeent cent"ry En!land was likely to come across in a lifetime. If tat was tr"e in 19?9, te sit"ation sit"ation by 3144 – is likely to be even more radical and drastic still. $fter all, as 0ick molan and &enn &ennifer ifer Erwitt, ;Te 6"man +ace of <i! ata> 3413- p"t it 7 ;Now, ;Now, in te first day of a baby's life today, today, te world creates C4 times te data contained contained in te entire 5ibrary of on!ress>. In some narratives, tis is a ca"se for concern or an%iety wit te ar!"ably fallacio"s- notion of a "manity tat is drownin! in content, data, information and ideas. It can instead be a so"rce of optimism. Aobile learnin! in partic"lar partic"lar can be a part of te M"bi#"ito"s learnin! and transmission of ideas and knowled!e disc"ssed in emetrios ampson and 2edro Isaias, ;*bi#"ito"s and Aobile 5earnin! in te i!ital $!e> 3413-. Te p pote otenti ntial al of ever ever ! !rea reater ter feedb feedback ack ssys ystem temss as all sort sortss of e%tra e%traord ordina inary ry poten potentia tiall b"sine b"siness ss ramif ramifica icatio tions= ns= in in "our $achines T Tal#  al# , tey !ive te e%ample of ;an ice7cream vendin!  Nokia's wite paper $achine%to%$achine& Let "our macine wants to tell te s"pplier tat it's r"nnin! o"t of cocolate cones, enablin! te vendin! operator to better sced"le is on7site visits.> 5"c 5"cian iano o +l +lori oridi, di, ;T ;Tee Etic Eticss of Inf Inform ormati ation> on> 341:, 341:, p.?-. p.?-. +lo +lorid ridii refer referss to te ble blendi ndin! n! o off t tee infos infospe pere re and and te real world as a 'reontolo!isation' of te latter by te former. $dri $drian an A AcE cEwe wen n and and 6aki 6akim m ass assim imal ally ly,, ;es ;esi! i!ni nin! n! te te Inte Interne rnett of T Ti in! n!s> s> 34 341: 1:-av avid id lar lark k of AIT AIT estima estimates tes ta tatt witin witin 1F or or 34 years years tere tere may be some someti tin! n! in in te te order order of of one one tr trill illion ion

devices connected to te internet. $ company s"c as <"! 5abs wants to "ser in an era wereby we not only  pro!ram and prod"ce new software, b"t new personalised personalised ardware as well. 4 0os 0ose' e'ss te tesis sis iiss ta tatt tecno tecnolo!y lo!y is in incre creasi asin!l n!ly y all allowi owin! n! "s to to cre create ate te te kind kind of enc encant anted ed ob/ec ob/ects ts dream dreamtt abo"t abo"t and confi!"red in traditional story7tellin! s"c as fairy tales.

 

  million people ad ired stran!ers to do daily errands for tem on Task0abbit, and FGL of people s"rveyed said tey wo"ld consider rentin! teir car to a stran!er wic is at te root of te rise of carsarin! services s"c as Pipcar-1. +or to tose se wo believe believe tat tat local comm"n comm"nity ity is no lon!er lon!er vibra vib rant, nt, it wo"ld wo"ld be in inter teres esti tin! n! to di disco scover ver precis precisely ely o ow w many many n"pti n"ptials als or lon!7 lon!7st stand andin! in! friendsips friendsi ps ave occ"rred as a res"lt of pro/ects s"c as +reecycle, +reecycle, let alone te vast m"ltiplicity m"ltiplicity of datin! sites. 5ocal comm"nity comm"nity may also be stren!tened stren!tened by te common ownersip ownersip and decision7 makin! implicit in e%periments s"c as tat of te football team Ebbsfleet *nited. $s a res"lt of te yper7ab"ndance of information and te "bi#"ity of ever more powerf"l comp"t com p"ter ers, s, 3144 3144 may be a worl world d carac caracte teris rised ed by a n"mbe n"mberr of profo" profo"nd nd de devel velopm opment entss tat tat differentiate differ entiate it from te world world tat I knew wen I was in T Tokyo okyo for te millenni"m. millenni"m. 8e may see 3 : everytin! from  from flyin! cars to entirely electric electric cars  to driverless driverless cars  wic may be a !reat deal everytin! safer tan cars driven by people, and mi!t not even re#"ire traffic li!ts or stop si!ns if tey can comm"nicate between eac oter - to te replacement of individ"al car ownersip by ever more vol"ntary co7operativesF. 8e may see everytin! everytin! from from yperloops yperloops to $lc"bierre $lc"bierre drives. If we do !et flyin! cars, o"r me!acities mi!t finally resemble +rit) 5an!'s ;Aetropolis> a cent"ry after it was made. 8e may see te ine%orable rise of te s"perintelli!ence s"perintelli!ence described by 6ans Aoravec, Aoravec, ;0obot= Aere Aacine to Transcendent Aind> 3444-. 0obotics may ave developed o"t of all reco!nition reco!niti on from, say, te tecnolo!y in i0obot's 0oomba vac""m cleaner tat was first introd"ced G in 3443 , <oston ynamics's ynamics's <i! o!, or te *TQ3 robot tat !ained te 3413 <ot2ri)e and /oined a robot made by Aiai 2olcean" in tat year by !ainin! over F4L in "manness ratin!s for te first time. tim e. $rtifi $rtificial cial intelli intelli!enc !encee may be far beyond te wildest wildest dreams of tose wo convened convened te seminal artmo"t conference in 6anover, New 6ampsire in 19FGC. $lready we are seein! te relatively early sta!es of te way in wic c"lt"re is bein! resaped by robotics, wit an e%ample bein! te m"sical system of P7Aacines desi!ned by &apanese roboticists, roboticists, wo ave collaborated collaborated wit an artist s"c as #"arep"ser. #"arep"ser. Everytin! Everytin! from factory floor liftin! to eart#"ake emer!ency responses co"ld be revol"tionised by te kind of robotic e%oskeletons e%oskeletons pioneered pioneered at te 2isa 2isa c"ola "periore "periore ant'$nna ant'$nna.. Dne day, day, we mi!t even even see te kind of i!7#"ality, a"tomated food prod"ction foreseen in &"les and Aicel @erne, ;In te Year 3??9>. Dne co"ld ima!ine ima!ine a kind of microwave oven connected connected to te internet wer weree yo" co"ld p"t in a recipe and ten receive te meal cooked o"t of in!redients wic ad been delivered  beforeand from a s"permarket – a possibility if artificially intelli!ent cookin! becomes cordon  ble" standard. Te pace and rate of can!e in artificial intelli!ence co"ld be yperbolic if aniel ewey's notion of an 'intelli!ence e%plosion' adapted in part from an idea first el"cidated by I.&.ood in 19G- becomes a reality, wit intelli!ent macines bein! able to create improvements to itself, wic ten lead to f"rter improvements, and so on. Aatter may be pro!rammable pro!rammable.. D"r economy, economy, as well as o"r sonatas?, may be ydro!en 9. 1 3 :  F G C

? 9

Te Tere re is !reat !reat po poten tentia tiall er eree – Tec Teccr" cr"nc nc pointe pointed d o"t in ece ecembe mberr 3414 3414 tat tat priva private te cars cars sit sit iidle dle 9FL 9FL of te time. 0am 0ame) e) N Naam aam,, ;Te ;Te Infin Infinite ite 0 0eso eso"rc "rce= e= T Te e 2o 2ower wer of of Ideas Ideas o on n a +i +init nitee 2lane 2lanet> t> 341 341::- obser observes ves ttat at bet betwee ween n 1991 and 344F, te capacity of liti"m7ion batteries tat co"ld be bo"!t wit R144 went "p by a factor of 11. +o +orr e%am e%ampl plee "s "sin in! ! o oo! o!le le's 's a" a"fffe fe"r "r soft softwa ware re.. isc isc"s "sse sed d by by *l *lri ric c Eb Eber erl, l, ;5 ;5if ifee in in 34 34F4 F4>> 34 341 111-.. $ vi view ew espo espo"s "sed ed by 2atr 2atric ick kT T"c "cke kerr of te te 8or 8orld ld +"t" +"t"re re o oci ciet ety y. $nd te tere re may may be a rea reall lif lifee versi version on of Isa Isaac ac $si $simov mov's 's 'Per 'Perot ot 5aw' 5aw' tat tat a robot robot ;m"s ;m"stt not arm arm "m "mani anity> ty> in in order to stave off te worst possible f"t"res envisa!ed by tecno7pessimists and neo75"ddites. $lt $lto" o"! ! it it may still still aalwa lways ys p prov rovee to be be te cas casee t tat at ar artif tifici icial al inte intelli lli!en !ence ce ccan an neve neverr #"ite #"ite atta attain in te te same same kind kind of intelli!ence tat caracterises te "man brain wic as evolved over billions of years and may operate in a #"alitatively different fasion from comp"ters, as disc"ssed for e%ample by &eff 6awkins, ;Dn Intelli!ence> 344C-. 8eter or not conscio"sness can be artificially created, or weter tere is a line beyond wic we simply cannot !o, is one of te most intri!"in! #"estions of o"r a!e. Iain A.<anks 3413-. is isc"s c"ssed sed by by,, for ins instan tance, ce, &erermy &erermy 0if 0ifkin kin,, ;T ;Te e 6ydro! 6ydro!en en Econ Economy omy>> 344 344-. -. Tis Tis is partic partic"la "larly rly te te case case !iven developments s"c as te discovery by researcers at Nort arolina tate *niversity in 341 tat a one7

 

  ome of it may even be antiydro!en antiydro!enF4. arbon nano nanot"bes, t"bes, followin! followin! te work of 6arry 6arry (roto and 0icard malley in syntesisin! b"ckminsterf"llerene in 19?F as well as te pioneerin! work of "mii Ii/im "m Ii/imaa in 1991, 1991, may may pr provi ovide de all all sorts sorts of ap appli plica catio tions ns wi wit t te te promi promise se of elect electirc ircal al cond"ctivity cond"ctiv ity far beyond copper and te possibility possibility of fibres tat are 144 times te stren!t and one si%t te wei!t of steel. steel. To date tese ave been "sed for a wide variety of diffe different rent p"rposes, from testin! weter somebody as skin cancer by ceckin! for te cemical dimetyls"fone dimetyls"fone to te ams"n! 'e7paper' display tat was la"nced in 344? re#"irin! no backli!tin!- F1. D"r economy may also be casless or, alternatively, cas may be polymer rater tan cotton and be able to s"rvive a spin in te wasin! macine F3-. D"r economy economy may be f"rter f"rter and f"rter f"rter radically resaped by te !rowt of crowdf"ndin! and its implicit etic of decentralisation on te one and and direct and "nmediated "nmediated e%can!e between between cons"mer and prod"cer on te oter oter.. Tis may accelerate a sift from te 34 cent"ry 'closed innovation' paradi!m to its 'open innovation' s"ccessor, wit te !rowt of ;firms S"sin! e%ternal ideas as well as internal ideas, and internal and e%ternal pats to market> to drive advances and improvements t. ince ince te te late 3444s 3444s tere tere as F:  been an e%ponential s"r!e in tis field  wit te rise of everytin! from (ickstarter to +"ndin! apital, rowdc"be to 2o)ible, 0eb"ildin! ociety, row @, <ank to te +"t"re, Trillion +"nd, $b"ndance eneration enerationF,  "n+"nder te intersection of crowdf"ndin! and renewable ener!y- as well as carity donation fora s"c as &"stivin! or its offsoot, Yimby-. $t te start of 341 tere were appro%imately appro%imately G44 crowdf"ndin! crowdf"ndin! platforms in e%istence. e%istence. $t some sta!e te cosmos of social netwo net worki rkin! n! may be f"lly f"lly inte!r inte!rate ated d wi wit t n"mero n"mero"s "s crowdf crowdf"nd "ndin! in! model modelss so tat tat flow flowss of information are directly linked to options to f"nd or s"pport pro/ects and activities, partic"larly tose wit a creative creative an!le or a social or environmen environmental tal etic to tem. tem. Tis may coincide coincide wit a reformation of te bankin! and financial services ind"stry driven by or!anisations s"c as te microfinance microfi nance rameen <ank in <an!lades <an!lades or (iva, or oters s"c as Triodos Triodos <ank, arity <ank or te Ecolo!y <"ildin! ociety. 8e may see a more and more embedded sarin! economy tat is enmesed into o"r more and more vertically disinte!rated economyFF  tro"! te process of te discovery of ;pysical reso"rces tat co"ld be more efficiently and profitably sared "sin! information networks> FG. $ll manner man ner of e%amples e%amples ere may become more and more a part of te fabric fabric of o"r everyday everyday lives, s"c as Pilok, Popa, *7E%can!e, 5andsare and o"cs"rfin!, creatin! te entrencment of an economy based on collaborative cons"mption FC. Tis Tis may lead lead to a sit"ati sit"ation, on, as disc" disc"ssed ssed by arles 5eadbeater, 5eadbeater, ;8e7Tink ;8e7Tink>> 3449- were te twentiet cent"ry yper7cons"mpt yper7cons"mption ion driven by credit, advertisin! and ownersip is replaced by a 31 cent"ry etic of rep"tation, comm"nity and sarin! tin!s and !ivin! tem awayst.  Indeed, it may rater baffle some istorians to read so many doc"mentss disc"ssin! te idea of an 'economic crisis' at te t"rnin! point of te 3414 decade wen doc"ment anoter view of te sit"ation mi!t be one of an admittedly at times rater complicate complicatedd- economic transition, transiti on, sift or indeed, even, renaissance. renaissance. $fter all, in a world were tere is everytin! everytin! from

F4 F1 F3 t F: F FF FG FC st

atom tick film of molybden"m s"lfide Ao3- may work as an effective catalyst for creatin! yrdo!en. In &&an" an"ary ary 341 341 te te $$ $$* *$ $ e%peri e%perimen mentt at E0 E0N N s" s"cce cceede eded d for for t tee first first time time in cre creati atin! n! a beam beam of antiydro!en atoms. &" &"llia ian n Ta" Ta"b, b, ;1 ;14 4 *s *ses fo forr ar arbo bon n Na Nano not" t"be bes> s>,, Tech !ews 'aily( :4t ecember 3413 T Tee <an <ank ko off En! En!la land nd is plan planni nin! n! to la"n la"nc c s" s"c c bank bankno note tess ffro rom m 341 341G. G. 6enr 6enry y es esbr bro" o"! !,, ;Dpe ;Dpen n In Inno nova vati tion on>> 3 344 44G G , p.%% p.%%iv iv-$s n note oted d by Eric Eric 0i 0iver veraa <" <"t)b t)bac ac,, ;row ;rowdf"n df"ndin din!= != 5 5aa ec eclos losion ion de la la finan financia ciacio cion n colec colectiv tiva, a, "n "n ca cambi mbio o tecnolo!ico, social y economico> 3413-. isc isc"s "sse sed d in Aod Aodwe wenn nnaa 0ees 0ees7A 7Ao! o!!, !, ;r ;row owd d +" +"nd ndin in!> !> 34 341: 1:-. -. &eff &effrey rey + +"n "nk k an and d ris risto top per er A Aa! a!ee ee,, ;E ;E%p %pon onen enti tial al  a an! n!e= e= 8 8a att drive drivess itO> itO> 341 3415isa a ansky, ;;T Te Aes> 3 34140ac 0acel el <ot <otsma sman n an and d 0oo 0oo 0o! 0o!ers ers,, ;8at' ;8at'ss Aine Aine is Yo"rs= o"rs= 6ow 6ow olla ollabor borati ative ve ons ons"mp "mption tion is an! an!in! in! tte e 8ay 8e 5ive> 3411Embody Embodyin! in!,, pe pera raps, ps, te e%tens e%tensive ive wor work k by Elinor Elinor Dst Dstrom rom int into o ow ow sy syste stems ms of self self7or 7or!an !anise ised d commo commons ns can work and flo"ris s"ccessf"lly.

 

  e<ay to Etsy to afe2ress, it is obvio"s tat markets are !oin! to be f"ndamentally f"ndamentally disr"pted – in a i!ly creative way. Tis is ei!tened wen te 'wisdom of crowds' is f"rter levera!d in te confl"ence  between crowdso"rcin!, c rowdso"rcin!, social networkin! n etworkin! and financial fin ancial tradin! tr adin! – on te model of systems s"c s" c as Aarketocracy, eToro's Dpen<ook, Pecco.com, "rrensee, +tat or P"l"Trade were people can copy te trades and positions of oters wit teir tradin! patterns bein! openly visible, allowin! a clear #"antification of teir s"ccess or fail"re-. Dpen tradin! co"ld f"ndamentally resape markets and systems tat tended towards oli!opoly or monopoly, allowin! for a different era of mercantile e%can!e F?. Etymolo Etymolo!ica !ically lly,, te term 'economy 'economy'' is derived derived from te ancient ancient reek 'oikos' 'oikos' or omestead. omestea d. Te era of personal fabrication fabrication may see man"fact"rin! man"fact"rin! ret"rned ret"rned to te omestead from wic all o"r economic activity developed istorically, wit te electronic cotta!e or electronic scriptori"m f"sin! wit te decentralised fab lab F9 or te domesticated tradin! floor. floor. If we do create an 'ener!y internet' fo"nded on renewables, we may also pro!ress to a point were one of te first  b"ildin! blocks block s of a family's f amily's domestic economy co"ld be te monetisation monetis ation of ener!y ene r!y "ploaded from fr om G4 devices s"c as potovoltaic cells or pie)oelectricy7!eneratin! 'tin straws' on b"ildin!s  to local comm"nity micro7!rids wic mi!t elp avoid blacko"ts on te one and and operate in tandem wit lar!er pro/ects s"c as esertec G1 on te oter. D"r power s"pply and man"fact"rin! may be closed7loop G3. Everywere Everywere from offices offices to G: G omes or ypero"ses ypero"ses - may be paperless . Te omes omes temselves temselves may almost almost all be passive passiveGF, s"perwindows may replace te ener!y demands "nleased by te traditional window GG, and "se of tecni#"ess s"c as termo!rapic ima!in! tecni#"e ima!in! may transform ins"lation, ins"lation, lower *7val"es to teir limit, and can!e te very nat"re of arcitect"ral desi!n. $ lar!e proportion mi!t be "pcycled and mi!t  be constr"cted o"t of "nwanted materials s"c as former sippin! containers. entrification may  be completely reinvented= areas a reas of post7ind"strial po st7ind"strial "rban " rban de!eneration de!ener ation and ne!lect may be revivified  by pro/ects s"c as 8rite7$76o"se in etroit, Aici!an, tat brin! in cl"sters of writers and artists, elpin! to crystallise vibrant "rban areas on te one and and provide stable omes and selter for

F?

0ob 0obert ert 5emp 5empka ka aand nd 2a 2a"l "l tall tallard ard,, ;Ne ;Ne%t %t ener enerati ation on +i +inan nance> ce> 341:341:- s"!! s"!!est est tat tat soci social al tradi tradin! n! offer offerss an ;investment opport"nity comparable to ed!e f"nds b"t in contrast offerin! a i!er level of transparency, li#"idity and accessibility.> accessibility.> F9 Nei Neill e ers rsenf enfiel ield, d, ;+ab ;+ab== te te comin comin! ! re revol vol"ti "tion on o on n yo yo"r "r de deskt sktop op – from person personal al comp comp"te "ters rs to to perso personal nal fabrication> 344F-. G4 "c "c as t tee b b"i "ild ldin in! !d des esi! i!n n by by < <el elat atc cew ew $rkit $rkitek ekte terr in in  we wede den. n. G1 5a" 5a"nc nced ed iin n 34 3411 11 and aimin! aimin! to prov provide ide 1FL of E E"ro "rope' pe'ss ener! ener!y y needs needs tr tro"! o"!  solar solar and wind wind ener ener!y !y

!enerated from te deserts of Nort $frica. Dn tte e m mod odel el o off t tee (al" (al"nd ndbo bor! r! p pow ower er p pla lant nt aand nd iind nd"s "str tria iall esta estate te in in enm enmar ark. k. Te consta constantly ntly siftin siftin! ! str"c str"ct"r t"ree desi! desi!ned ned by te te Aelb Aelbo"r o"rne ne ccomp ompany any rowd rowd cite cited d in "san "san  ree reenfie nfield, ld, ;Tomorrow's ;Tomorrow's 2eople= 6ow 31st ent"ry Tecnolo!y is an!in! te 8ay 8ay 8e 8e Tink and +eel> 344-. Te desi!ner +red <l"mlein is #"oted as sayin!= ;Te o"se of te f"t"re will be sort of like avin! a servant. 8it an a"tomatic, wi)7ban!, di!itally controlled environment, yo"'ll make a wis and yo"r wis comes tr"e.> G Dr Dr,, alter alternat native ively ly,, te tey y may not – see for inst instanc ancee $bi! $bi!ail ail  ell ellen en and and 0ica 0icard rd 6arpe 6arper, r, ;Te ;Te Ayt Ayt of te te 2aperless Dffice> 3441-. It remains to be seen weter te sc screen, reen, wic Aark 2oster 2oster,, ;Information 2lease= "lt"re and 2olitics in te $!e of i!ital i !ital Aacines> 344G- describes as a ;liminal ob/ect, an interface between te "man and te macine tat invites penetration of eac by te oter> means te end of paper. Ian amson, ;2aper= $n Ele!y> 3413- sees paper as remainin! te ;!ost in o"r macines> so tat a !reat deal of te way in wic we navi!ate and interact on comp"ters and mobiles is based on te pre7e%istin! fo formats rmats of te paper era. "c a tendency can be seen in te title of te app la"nced by +acebook in 341, 2aper. GF 2as 2assiv sivo" o"se, se, an eenti ntire re sy syste stem m of tool toolss s" s"c c as te 2622 2622 calc"l calc"lato ator, r, was cre create ated d by 8olf olf!an !an! ! +ei +eist st and and <o <o $damson, and is anoter e%ample e%ample of developments tat ave been open so" so"rce. rce. ee, for instance, &anet attrell attrell and $dam adeby, ;Te 2assivo"se 6andbook> 3413-. GG $s d disc isc"ss "ssed ed ffor or insta instance nce in in $ $mory mory 5ovins 5ovins,, ;0 ;0ein einven ventin! tin! +ir +ire> e> 341 3411, 1, p. p.9C9C- w wo o aar! r!"es "es tat tat s"perw s"perwind indows ows may look like tey only ave two panes of !lass, !lass, b"t ins"late as if tey a ave ve 1G ;or in a few cases 33>-. Te Empire tate <"ildin! is an interestin! e%ample of te reman"fact"rin! of traditional windows into s"perwindows wit marked ins"latin! effects. G3 G:

 

  creative people on te oter andGC. imilar imilar pro/ects are are driven by or!anisation or!anisationss s"c as mi5E mi5E wo fill empty spaces wit commercial vent"res on sort7term vent"res to elp stave off te atropication of "rban areas. ost towns s"c as +ama!"sta G? may be transformed into eco7cities. $ lar!e n"mber of people mi!t live in treeo"ses, in eco villa!es like te 5ammas in west 8ales or te +indorn Ecovilla!e in AorayG9, or in te kind of self7b"ilt, low7cost 'obbit o"se' created by imon ale. pacesip Eart mi!t be covered in Eartsips. 2eople may live in smaller and more more condensed spaces on te model of raam 6ill's 5ifeEdited apartment or te 144( o"se in 2iladelpia wic is less tan alf te avera!e si)e of a * o"se C4. Tere may may even be a stron! tendency for developments of te interstices of e%istin! b"ildin!s alon! te model of Aate"s) Aastalski and Dle 0obin tor/oann's '5ive <etween <"ildin!s' pro/ect, and for te distrib"tion of simple accommodation s"c as i7<eam esi!n's pallet o"se, ori!inally desi!ned for ref"!ees b"t "sef"l in areas of i! pop"lation density, wic can be assembled by anyone wito"t partic"lar constr"ction knowled!e in only one day "sin! easily available materials. materials. $ lar!e n"mber of people mi!t live in reconstit"ted entities s"c as sippin! containers. If printed books still e%ist rater tan di!ital books, tere may never be a sin!le printed wito"t a concomitant decision by a p"bliser to, for instance, b"y wind power credits e#"ivalent to te amo"nt of electricity "sed to !enerate te book in te first place, or a decision to replant te re#"isite n"mber of trees tat make "p te pa!es of te book. Tere may also be all sorts of f"sions of te di!ital and paper, wit an e%ample bein! te pro/ect led by te *niversity of entral 5ancasire 5ancasi re to create newspapers tat are written on internet7enabl internet7enabled ed 'smart paper'. 8aste prod"cts may be transformed into vast n"mbers of oter prod"cts on te model of companies s"c as Tom )aky's Terraycle. Terraycle. Te !l"ts and accretions of plastic in te oceans and on land may be improved and removed by or!anisations s"c as 2lasticbank, wile apps s"c as te Aarine ebris Tracker ca can n be "s "sed ed by lar lar!e n" n"m mbers bers of peop people le to ob obse serv rvee and and re reco cord rd plac places es were ere ter teree ar aree a!!lomerations a!!lomer ations of r"bbis on coastlines coastlines and waterways, waterways, or by b y scemes s"c as te Dcean lean"p +o"ndation's +o"ndati on's Dcean lean"p $rray $rray.. 6opef"lly we may also ave fo"nd sol"tions to te prevalence prevalence of endocrine disr"ptors tat ave possibly led to te replacement of sperm by e!!s in male roac fis and may ave led to an overall decline in "man male fertility over te co"rse of te 34 cent"ry. 8it te advances in voice reco!nition tat ave laid te fo"ndations for $pple's iri t  or oo!le Now, we may ave omes tat are c"stomisable based entirely on o"r vocal commands. Te level and acc"racy of face reco!nition may e%pand e%ponentially beyond tat practised by oo!le's 2icasa. In sops, so"ld we coose to allow o"r data to be open for s"c s"c p"rposes, p"rposes, we may find more and more of te kind of analysis of o"r smartpone information by te sop itself tat is bein! pioneered by companies s"c as E"clid $nalytics, opperTrak, 0etail Ne%t, Nomi and 2rism kylabs, wic may lead to a different realm of individ"ally tailored c"stomer service. "c GC

G? G9 C4 t

iv iven en te te res"lt res"ltss of te te 341 341  i! i!ita itall <oo <ook k8 8orl orld d and 8rit riter' er'ss i!est i!est $"tor $"tor "rv "rvey ey,, tat tat sowed sowed ttat at FL FL of traditionally and self7p"blised writers earn less tan R1444 UG44- per year tis is pres"mably not a s"rvey of financial writers, or tose wit te time to immerse temselves in everytin! from Investopedia or Pero6ed!e and also ass"min! tat tey aren't simply earnin! millions of o!eoin, oinyeoin, Aa%oin , <ernard 5ietaer's terra or te inese B coin or te "ndreds and "ndreds of oter alt coins instead-, s"rely it is not "nreasonable for tere to be similar pro/ects to 8rite7$76o"se aro"nd te world in c"lt"res tat act"ally val"e teir civilisation rater tan don't. $ more optimistic view for writers does e%ist= 0icard 5anam even p"ts forward te idea tat in te 'attention economy' of te di!ital rater tan te 'economy of st"ff' of te pysical writers are central rater tan  periperal= ;arts and letters now stand stand at te center center.. Tey are te disciplines tat st"dy ow aattention ttention is allocated, ow c"lt"ral capital is created and traded.> 5o 5ond ndon on c coo ooll of Ec Econ onom omic icss Ai% Ai%cl clo" o"d d po podc dcas ast, t, +eb +ebr" r"ar ary y 341 341  ee ee tte e l lob obaal E Eco covi villla!e la!e Netw twor ork k ffor or more more at ttp=JJ!en.ecovilla!e.or! ttp=JJ!en.ecovilla!e.or!   Aa Aark rk l lea eary ry ed ed,, ;31 ;31st st ent ent"ry "ry "st "stai aina nable ble 6ome 6omes> s> 3 341 411, 1, pp.1 pp.147 471: 1:-Not Not,, it as to b bee stres stressed sed,, te te na narra rrator tor of 2eter 2eter 8att atts, s, ;<li ;<linds ndsi! i!t> t> 344 344G-. G-. Dne of tte e inte interes restin tin! ! devel developm opment entss in te cent"ry wo"ld be te discovery tat we ad been co7e%istin! for some time wit aliens wo mi!t not, for instance, e%ist witin te electroma!netic spectr"m witin wic o"r empirical senses operate.

 

  a realm is also made possible by te e%pansion of cons"mer power represented by te a!!re!ation of online reviews reviews of prod"cts prod"cts s"c as Epinion Epinions.c s.com. om. Dn te oter side of te e#"atio e#"ation, n, data a!!re!ation a!!re!ati on may not only elp sops to serve c"stomers, b"t tools s"c as &ames 2atten's 2atten's orporate +allo"t etector +- wic provides a n"mber of clicks based on a metric of information on a  prod"ct's etical nat"ire based on information provided by so"rces s"c as  )thical Consumer ma!a)ine- may empower p"rcasers to an ever !reater de!ree wen coosin! !oods or services, and e%tend o"r differentiation even beyond price "sin! tools s"c as +roo!le- and towards services tat are in balance wit te environment rater tan o"t of it. $s in oter fields, we may see more and more advanced forms of #"antification and meas"rin! meas"rin ! on te basis of retail ratin!s made by all sorts of so"rces, wet weter er for safety s"c as by *nderwriters *nderwr iters 5aboratories-, 5aboratories-, #"ality ons"mer ons"mer 0eports- or s"stainability s"stainability +orestEtics-. +orestEtics-. 8e may see te f"rter e%tension of te overcomin! overcomin! of te limitations limitations of time and space described in Emily  Na!le reen, ;$nywere> 3449- wit te ability to !o into sops virt"ally aro"nd te world and  b"y prod"cts prod" cts from tem directly – tere t ere as already alr eady been a race between oo!le and Aicrosoft, Aicr osoft, for instance, to take millions of : potos aro"nd te world wic mi!t allow "s, as &ames <radfield Aoody, ;Te i%t 8ave> 3414, p.iii- points o"t, ;to visit New York, enter a department store, and  browse and b"y its !oods – all from yo"r ome comp"ter.>C1. 2rediction 2rediction markets markets may play lar!er lar!er and lar!er roles in te provision of services, s"c as te "se of an inde% like te 6ollywood tock E%can!e as a way of cartin! te likely tra/ectory of a film's bo% office s"cccess or fail"re in te f"t"re wit te f"rter and f"rter efficiency efficiency of metrics s"c as 0otten Tomatoes' Tomatoes' Tomatom Tomatometer eter to !a"!e critical a"dience reaction to films, or te similar votin! system "sed by te Internet Aovie atabase- C3. $ similar entity in te video !ames arena as been simE%can!e. 8e may see t tee pr pric icee di disco scover very y meca mecani nism sm more more and more more re revol vol"ti "tion onise ised d wi wit t te te development developm ent of ever more n"anced micro7c"rrencies micro7c"rrencies as well as e%can!es for partic"lar speres of information and commodities – and te ever !reater m"sroomin! of stock e%can!es temselves. Tradin! Tra din! may be revol"tionised by te comple% interconnections interconnections of te di!ital world of bits and te  pysical world of atoms, wit an e%ample bein! te perceived ratin! by Edward astronova of  Norrat, te settin! for te online !ame Ever#"est, as bein! te CC ricest co"ntry in te world ranked between between 0"ssian 0"ssian and <"l!aria<"l!aria- in 3443. +"rtermore, +"rtermore, te era of #"antificati #"antification on and te efflorescence of metrics may see advances in e#"ations for intelli!ence itself, !iven te work of somebody s"c as $le% 8issner7 8issner7ross. ross. <y 3131 te problem of people worryin! worryin! abo"t Internet $ddiction isorder after readin! "san reenfield novels may be solved, partic"larly if almost everybody becomes te kind of di!itally connected and savvy 'yperbein!' envisa!ed in 0"dy de 8aele and 5o"ise ampbell, ;ift 3434> 341-. Te world may resemble a kind of e%tended syntesis of te +lintstones t and te &etsonsC:  wit a mi%t"re of back to basics etics on te one and wit, even, tone $!e aestetics to tem, in te case of arlie 6a!"e and Ae!an 8illiam's 'obbit o"se' in 2embrokesire- and radical tecno7f"t"rism tecno7f"t"ris m on te oter. oter. $tomically precise man"fact"rin! man"fact"rin! may "ser in a new ind"strial C or C1

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Te ssi%t i%t  wave wave in #"e #"esti stion on is wa watt te a"tor a"torss see see as te te ssi%t i%t  (ondr (ondrati atiev ev wave wave in is istory tory,, occ"r occ"rrin rin! ! after after te te fift te information revol"tion from te 19C4s onwards-, and one tat will be defined by reso"rce scarcity and te need for reso"rce efficiency. efficiency. Tis is not to be conf"sed wit 6ermann 6a"ser's si% waves of comp"tin!, incorporatin! 1- mainframes, 3- minicomp"ters, :- workstations, - te 2, F- smartponesJclo"d comp"tin! and G"bi#"ito"s comp"tin! and macine learnin!. i isc sc"s "sse sed d in ass ass  "n "nst stei ein, n, ;I ;Info nfoto topi pia= a= 6ow 6ow Aany Aany Ain Ainds ds 2r 2rod od"c "cee (n (now owle led! d!e> e> 34 344G 4G-+or e%ampl e%amplee in ide ideas as s"c s"c as a ret ret"rn "rn to to t tee 'prim 'primiti itivis vism' m' o off past past soci societi eties es s"c s"c as &on &on Per Per)an )an,, ;+"t" ;+"t"re re 2rimitive> 199-. $ work tat espo"ses te kind of mentalities and 8eltansca""n! 8eltansca""n! of indi!eno"s societies and c"lt"res is tat of &ared iamond, ;Te 8 8orld orld *ntil Yes Yesterday> terday> 3413$cc $ccordi ordin! n! to &ef &effrey frey T"cke T"cker, r, ;It' ;It'ss a &e &etso tson's n's 8orl orld> d> 341 34111- it aalre lready ady,, in a sense sense,, is. T"cke T"ckerr descri describes bes a proc proces esss of 'miracle fati!"e', were we become so "sed to s"c a lar!e n"mber of can!es and advances in o"r time tat we  become at times in"red to tem. ee for inst instanc ancee ris ris $nders $nderson, on, ;Aaker ;Aakers= s= Te N New ew Ind"s Ind"stri trial al 0evo 0evol"t l"tion ion>> 3 3413 413-. -. 6opkin 6opkinson son,, 6a!"e 6a!"e and ickens, ;0apid Aan"fact"rin!= $n Ind"strial 0evol"tion for te i!ital $!e> 344G- e%plore man"fact"rin! in te

 

  in a sense post7ind"strialpost7ind"strial- revol"tionCF tat is absol"tely predicated on efflorescence efflorescence and ab"ndance !iven te ability to man"fact"re a vast ran!e of prod"cts drawn from a di!ital library CG  and may f"flill te vision prod"ced by 0icard +eynman +eynman in 19F9 of a ;billion tiny factories, factories, models of eac oter,, wic are man"fact"rin! oter man"fact"rin! sim"ltaneo"sly>. sim"ltaneo"sly>. Te word Mtiny ere may be central since, in te spirit of former paradi!m7siftin! inventions s"c as te microcip by &ack (ilby and 0obert  NoyceCC, we may see a process were !reater and !reater capacity is condensed into ever smaller entities – a variant of te E.+.c"macer dict"m tat Msmall is bea"tif"l C? or et odin's 'small is te new bi!' bi!'C9. If te world is really really a m"ltiverse m"ltiverse of parallel parallel "niverses, "niverses, envisa!ed envisa!ed in te work of 6"! Everett, ten it mi!t even be possible at some sta!e to constr"ct a macine to allow "s to move to parallel "niverses?4. *niversity *niversity lect"res lect"res may be broadcast tro"! tro"! /edi7like /edi7like olo!rapic olo!rapic ?1 ima!es . <iometrics <iometrics may ave rendered rendered everytin! everytin! from keys to wallets wallets obsolete. obsolete. evelopments evelopments ?3 and devices s"c as te +reedom<o%   may allay fears over s"rveillance and elp to maintain  privacy in a yper7connected world, partic"larly !iven te concerns laid o"t by Eli 2ariser, ;Te +ilter <"bble> <"bble> 3411-. 3411-. 8asin! macines macines may "se vastly less water water if tose pioneered by eros f"lfill f"lf ill teir teir promise promise and become become "bi#"ito"s "bi#"ito"s.. D"r macine maciness may be spirit"al. spirit"al. <y ?43C41, ?43C41, tey ?: mi!t be time . Tey may often be biolo!ical, wit te e%ample of E.coli bacteria bein! en!ineered into  bein! simple analo!"e comp"ters comp"t ers by 0a"l arpeskar and Timoty 5" of AIT. AIT. Tey may even be be CF

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?1 ?3 ?:

di!ital era, in partic"lar !iven te improvement in tools s"c as $ since inception in te 19C4s. &eremy &eremy 0 0ifk ifkin, in, ;Te ;Te Tird Tird Ind"s Ind"stria triall 0e 0evol vol"ti "tion= on= 6 6ow ow 5ate 5ateral ral 2owe 2owerr is Trans Transfor formin! min! Ener!y Ener!y,, te Economy Economy and te 8orld> 34113411- views tis period as offerin! te opport"nity for a tird ind"strial revol"tion driven by te interrelationsip between renewable ener!y and te internet, since, in is view, ;te !reat economic revol"tions in istory occ"r wen new comm"nications tecnolo!ies conver!e wit new new ener!y systems.> 6ere e posits te idea of an ener!y internet. Tis is similar to <ob Aetcalfe' Aetcalfe'ss idea of an 'Enernet' or ener!y netwo networkrk- wic may ave similar e%pansive potential as te Aetcalfe's 5aw tat e "sed to describe interconnections in networks !enerally.. !enerally.. D"r !rids may become smarter and smarter. Aarco $nn"n) $nn"n)iata iata p"ts forward a vision of a world were macines are more efficient based on teir abilities to sense and transmit information – wit, for instance, aeroplane parts tat send a messa!e wen tey need servicin! or wind t"rbines tat comm"nicate wit eac oter to !enerate more electricity.. Te latter is ecoed in a pro/ect s"c as 0oboEart wic is d"bbed a '8ikipedia for robots' and electricity involves a space were robots can sare information wit eac oter on ow best to perform teir f"nctions. Ti Tiss is anti anticip cipate ated d in Er Eric ic re%l re%ler er,, ;0a ;0adic dical al $b" $b"nda ndance nce== 6ow a 0evo 0evol"ti l"tion on in Nano Nanotec tecno nolo!y lo!y 8ill  an an!e !e ivili)ation> 341:-. T.0.0eid, ;Te ip> 344C$ rrat ater er bea"t bea"tif" if"ll e%ampl e%amplee at te te ti time me o off writin! writin! is tte e devel developm opment ent of of micro7 micro7win windmi dmills lls ta tatt are 1.?mm 1.?mm at at teir teir widest point developed by mita 0ao and &7 iao. $ sin!le !rain of rice co"ld old abo"t ten of tese and tey mi!t be able to power a mobile pone, for tose wo do not "se oter systems s"c as metanol f"el cells. $noter e%ample is te s"spended microcannel resonator A0- system developed by AIT en!ineers in 341 tat can meas"re te mass of particles wit a resol"tion better tan an atto!ram, i.e. one milliont of a trilliont of a !ram. 8e may see see lar!e developments in speres s"c as femtoen!ineerin! and picone!ineerin!. In terms of o"sin!, te sift to te micro is embodied in creations s"c as $le% 5isefski's Tiny 2ro/ect &o &on n (elly (elly aand nd t teve eve 6am 6amm, m, ;ma ;mart rt Aaci Aacines nes>> 341: 341:-- disc"s disc"sss te te e%amp e%ample le of a team team led led by $ndrea $ndreass 6einr 6einric ic at I<A wo, in 3411, prod"ced te smallest device tat can be "sed to reliably store a bit of ma!netic information albeit at low temperat"re- wic comprised /"st twelve atoms rater tan, for e%ample, one million. ee ee,, fo forr ins instanc tance, e, Aic Aicio io ( (ak" ak" in 0ay 0aymon mond d iao iao,, Aarvin Aarvin o oen en and and $ntony $ntony 5e!!et 5e!!ett, t, ;;@ @isi isions ons of iscovery= New 5i!t on 2ysics, osmolo!y osmolo!y,, and onscio"sness> 3414-. 6ere e points o"t p.GC- tat wile te 5ar!e 6adron ollider is te world's most powerf"l particle accelerator to date, it can ;only prod"ce particles wit tens of trillions of electric volts. Te 2lanck ener!y ener!y,, by contrast, is a #"adrillion times lar!er tan te ener!y of te 56.> arw arwan antt in! in!,, ;Ne ;New w Ae!a Ae!a T Tre rend nds= s= Impl Implic icat atio ions ns for for o"r +"t +"t"r "ree 5ive 5ives> s> 341 3413, 3, p. p.%v %vii ii-isc isc"s "sse sed d by Aar Aarvi vin n$ $mm mmor ori, i, ;Dn ;Dn Int Inter erne nett +ree +reedo dom> m> 34 341: 1:-. -. 6. 6..8 .8ell ells, s, ;Te ;Te Time Time A Aac acine ine>> 1 1?9F ?9F-. -. Tis Tis feat" feat"res res,, fo forr e% e%amp ample, le, in eor eor!ia !ia 5"pi's 5"pi's timeli timeline ne of of f"t"r f"t"ree events p"blised in ;5a 5ett"ra>, te "nday literary s"pplement of ;orriere ella era>. Nancy $tkins $tkinson, on, nd ;osmona"t er!ei (rikalev, te 8orld's Aost 2rolific Time Traveler>, Universe Today( 33  Dctober 341:, ar!"es tat, tanks to time dilation and Einstein's teory of relativity, time travel is already practised by astrona"ts and cosmona"ts, wit er!ei (rikalev avin! practised it te most ;e as act"ally time7traveled into is own f"t"re by 4.43 seconds>-.

 

  caracteris caract erised ed by lovin! lovin! !race. ome ome mi!t even be in te lon!7dream lon!7dreamtt of perpet"a perpet"all motion or ?  perpet""m mobile- cate!ory .   8e may ave worked o"t o"t ow to condense treas"re treas"re troves troves s"c as te Internet $rcive's 8ayback Aacine on to nano7devices wic are ten transmitted to distant !ala%ies as introd"ctions introd"ctions of o"r civilisation civilisation to any oters tat we mi!t one day enco"nter or as tool  bo%es for people peop le settin! "p colonies co lonies elsewere. Tere may be no s"c s" c tin! as sced"led sced "led television anymore it may be ;appropriated into te realm of te di!ital> in 8illiam ibson's words-,  patic"larly !iven te s"ccess s"cces s of models s"c s "c as Netfli% and 6"l". $lternatively, te trend for f or mass viewin! of certain pro!rammes, backed "p by commentary by viewers tro"! social networks, may be f"rter establised. establised. Te cons"mer, cons"mer, locked in implicit passivity passivity,, may be a tin! of te past, and repalced by a world of $lvin Toffler's Toffler's pros"mers. Tis may ave ramifications in fields s"c as television, televisi on, wit te possibility possibility of more and more e%periments e%periments were dramatic narratives are saped in real time by te feedback and ideas flowin! in from te 'a"dience' for wom te fo"rt wall as  been empatically broken bro ken down.  Nearly every "man bein! alive and a lar!e percenta!e of people from te past, incl"din! tose deemed to ave led 'ordinary' rater tan distin!"ised lives b"t wo still ave some sort of written records in e%istence abo"t tem- may reac a 8arolian fame wit at least a 8ikipedia  pa!e. omm"tin! to work by /et7pack ?F  may be an ele!ant way to avoid traffic and con!estion. ises mi!t be self7cleanin! ?G. lotin! lotin! or constr"ction constr"ction materials materials mi!t be self7eali self7ealin! n! ?C. Te internet may be ever more wearable wit te widespread diff"sion of devices s"c as sociometers partic"larly partic"l arly if tere are developments s"c as te rise of biode!radable biode!radable s"!ar batteries- ??. 8at is wearable may transform= leater, for instance, may no lon!er be made from cows in te vision of te *niversity of elaware's elaware's 0icard 8ool. 8ool. $lmost all soes mi!t event"ally "se Aarty Ac+ly's  power laces. la ces. $lmost every ever y city in te world mi!t mi! t ave a cat cafe like te alico cafe in in/"k", Tokyo. Aore and more of o"r everyday ob/ects may be based on te etic of Mcradle to cradle and its 3 protocol- s"c as floors by aw or esso or office f"rnit"re by teelcase and Dran!ebo% ?9. $n en enorm ormo"s o"s perce percenta nta!e !e of labo" labo"rr may be meca mecani nised sed or a"tom a"tomis ised, ed, an and d ere ere we face face te te callen!e of makin! tat process one wic frees "s "p to p"rs"e patways and vocations tat f"lfill "s mentally, mentally, intellect"ally and spirit"ally spirit"ally.. $ccordin! $ccordin! to 8assily 8assily 5eontieff 5eontieff 19?:-, ;te role of "mans as te most important factor of prod"ction is bo"nd to diminis in te same way tat te rolee of orse rol orsess in a!ric" a!ric"lt" lt"ral ral prod"c prod"cti tion on was was fi first rst dimini diminise sed d an and d ten ten elim elimin inate ated d by te te introd"c intr od"ction tion of tractors. tractors.>> In essence, essence, terefore terefore,, we ave to attain te ri!t balance balance so tat o"r mecanical and a"tomative inventions provide "s wit !reater liberty and prosperity rater tan in ?

It wo wo"ld "ld be be a br brave ave so" so"ll wo wo" wo"ld ld pr predi edict ct t tee cr creat eation ion o off a pe perpe rpet"a t"all motion motion mac macin inee or ssys ystem tem,, rater rater like like a  prediction of te Aa!n"m Dp"s of te alcemists, alcemists, b"t developments s"c aass Nobel 2ri)e winnin! pysicist +rank 8ilc)ek'ss apparent proof of 'time crystals' in 3413 pysical str"ct"res tat 8ilc)ek' t at move in a repetitive pattern, wito"t e%pendin! ener!y or stoppin!- may erald developments in tis spere. $s 6enry ircks ad it in 1?C1, ;8y contin"e a race te !oal of wic as as ever proved a del"sion and a pitfallO> "c is te nat"re, peraps, of te  pioneerin! spirit and te desire to attain attain te new frontier. ?F $n ee%am %ample ple er eree is tte e Aa Aarti rtin n /etpac /etpack k wic wic was was in inven vented ted by l lenn enn Aart Aartin in in 19?1 19?1 in resp respons onsee to anot anoter er //et et  pack tat at te time ad a one min"te fli!t limit. In te early 3414s, it ad reaced a fli!t ca capability pability of over :4 min"tes at speeds "p to C kmJ. ?G +or e%ampl e%ample, e, tos tosee desi! desi!ned ned by te te wed wedis is Tomorrow omorrow Aaci Aacine ne desi desi!n !n st"d st"dio io w wic ic  ave ave a s"per7 s"per7 ydropobic coatin!. ?C +or ee%am %ample ple,, te s"perm s"permole olec"l c"lar ar r" r"bbe bberr pio pionee neered red by by $rkema $rkema and te Ind" Ind"str strial ial 2ys 2ysics ics and and emi emistry stry 6i! 6i!er er Ed"cational Instit"tion in 2aris or, in te field of materials, 6enk &onker's 'biocrete' were bacteria are mi%ed into te traditional cement. ?? is isc"s c"ssed sed by 2e 2en! n! To, To, ;;Te Te 8earab earable le 0e 0evol vol"ti "tion on in ons"m ons"mer er evi evices ces== T Tee Inter Internet net of of mart mart Tin! Tin!s> s> 341:?9 is isc"s c"ssed sed by A Aic icael ael <ra"n! <ra"n!a"t a"t and and 8 8ill illiam iam Ac Acono ono"! "!,, ;radl ;radlee to rad radle> le> 344 3449-, 9-, wo wo se seee a Mcrad Mcradle le to cradle model of near infinite recyclin! possibility as bein! s"perior to te Mcradle to !rave man"fact"rin! man"fact"rin! model datin! from te Ind"strial 0evol"tion. Acono"!'s A< company company as, for instance, desi!ned an "polstery "polstery fabric from wool and cell"lose tat is f"lly biode!radable and can be composted at te end of its lifespan.

 

  any sense limitin! "s or red"cin! o"r positions, val"e or stat"s in te world 94. Dne of te most most  pressin! tasks in a world of o f s"c a lar!e pop"lation is ens"rin! ens "rin! tat work wor k satisfies satis fies deeper de eper imp"lses and i!er callin!s in o"r nat"re, and avoid te insec"ritisation insec"ritisation of work tat is implict in te idea of a !lobalised 'precariat' for wom work is transient and repetitio"s and, most pernicio"sly, often intermi%ed intermi %ed wit lon! periods of "nderemployment "nderemployment or "nemployment "nemployment wit te International International 5abo"r Dr!anisation forecastin! a level of abo"t 31F million people bein! "nemployed worldwide by 341?, wit an "nderemployment "nderemployment rate rate peraps closer to one billion-.. billion-.. 6opef"lly we we will not reac a point in abo"t 31?4 were /obs s"c as bo"nty "nters are some of te only ones left 91 – instead, it wo"ld  be eartenin! earten in! if we constantly constan tly create new and interestin! vocations tat fit ever more closely to te real skills and talents of tose wo fill tem. It remains to be seen weter te sol"tion to work and  prod"ctivity is te invention of a 'sleep eliminator' first proposed by 6"!o ernsback in Science and *nvention ma!a)ine ma!a)ine.. If tere is a Aars colony at at some sta!e, owever owever,, te people on it mi!t mi!t  benefit from sometin! in te order of an e%tra 4 min"tes per day, wic mi!t elp increase  prod"ctivity. $ sort workin! day, wit a few !entle o"rs of te !eneral ! eneral pressin! of b"ttons, mi!t  be te sol"tion, if we take a leaf lea f o"t of te &etsons bo book. ok. 8e may see vast evol"tions in welfare and economic systems s"c as te instit"tion of a  basic income, alon! wit similar innovations tat may elp people to avoid dr"d!ery and ne!ative ro"tinisation of work or wat o"!las o"pland mi!t call 'microserfdom' 93- and instead allow !reate !re aterr ab"nda ab"ndance nce of time time9:  an and d liber liberty ty for e%pres e%pressio sion n and te f"lfi f"lfillm llment ent of vocati vocation on tat tat reform"l refo rm"lates ates o"r society's society's ideas of employment employment,, work and careers careers.. 8e may see a sift sift from a 9

standard :F or F o"r workin! week to one in te re!ion of, say, 34 o"rs per week  , wit te rest of people's time bein! earmarked earmarked for teir own individ"al individ"al and collaborative collaborative pro/ects. 8ork itself may be completely and "tterly transformed transformed as a res"lt of tools s"c as +acebook's social !rap and rap $2I $pplication 2ro!rammin! Interface- wit te ever !reater ability of people to a!!re!ate to!eter in real life forms based on virt"ally declared predilections and passions 9F  wit tr"st 94

91 93 9: 9

5ynn 5ynn 8 8ite ite,, ;Tec ;Tecnol nolo!y o!y aand nd In Innova novatio tion n in te te Aiddle Aiddle $!es> $!es> 194 194-- ar!"ed ar!"ed tat tat te te 8est 8est in in te medi medieva evall  period was caracterised by a power power and macine revol"tion for e%ample tro"! te water w weel eel and te vertical windmill- and tat te ;cief !lory of te later Aiddle $!es...was not its catedrals or its epics or its scolasticism= it was te b"ildin! for te first time in istory of a comple% civili)ation wic rested not on te backs of sweatin! slaves or coolies b"t primarily on non7"man power.> In fact, one co"ld ar!"e tat one of te very very allmarks of a concept of civilisation itself is te de!ree to wic "manity in !eneral are liberated from dr"d!ery and menial work and allowed to e%press temselves t emselves in deeper ways. $s depi depict cted ed in &on &on 8a!ne a!ner' r'ss ;;tr tron onti ti"m "m o!> o!> se seri ries es,, 19C 19C?7 ?794 94.. te tewar wartt <rand <rand's 's apori aporism sm as it ttat at ;in ;infor format mation ion wants wants to to be fre free.> e.> o do do worke workers, rs, wete weterr infor informat mation ion workers or not. 0ob 0obert ert kide kidelsky lsky,, &"l &"liet iet cor cor,T ,Tim im &ackso &ackson, n, <arba <arbara ra $ $dam dam,, $nna $nna o oote ote,, &ane &ane +rankl +ranklin, in, a an n +arley +arley,, ;Time ;Time on D"r ide= 8y 8e $ll Need a orter 8orkin! 8eek> 341:&o &on n Aaynar Aaynard d (ey (eynes nes pred predict icted ed in te 1 19:4 9:4ss tat tat tec tecno nolo! lo!ica icall improv improveme ements nts wo"l wo"ld d le lead ad to a stand standard ard 1 1F F o"r workin! week by te 31 st cent"ry – a similar view was e%pressed by eoffrey 6oyle, ;3414= 5ivin! in te +"t"re> 19C3- wo anticipated anticipated a tree day workin! week as standard. standard. <en/amin +ranklin anticipated anticipated a workin! day of five o"rs, and <ertrand 0"ssell and 5ewis A"mford bot ar!"ed tat a 34 o"r workin! week so"ld be s"fficient to provide te !oods and services tat are needed by society. society. $ccordin! to <ill <ryson, ;Dne "mmer= $merica 193C> 341:- 2resident alvin oolid!e only worked fo"r o"rs per day, and slept a !reat deal of te rest of it. Te sorter workin! week as not #"ite yet yet transpired, and in some sectors workin! week weekss ave e%tended far  beyond tat and work as become ever ever more competitive in terms of te time p"t in, b"t it may be tat on tat  partic"lar call (eynes and collea!"es collea!"es were simply a lon! lon! way aead aead of teir time. $lto"! diffic"lt to assess, assess, accordin! to Aarsall alins, ;tone $!e Economics> 341:- "nter !aterer societies may ave ad 'workin! days' of only tree to fo"r o"rs on necessary necessary food cores. iven te ab"ndance of time implicit iin n tis assessment, alins sees te "nter7!aterer model as te ori!inal 'affl"ent society' to"! one wic, one s"spects, was prone to crases of calories in a similar way to o"r contemporary systems are prone to stock market falls and oter callen!in! vicissit"des-. To sli!tly mis#"ote Aies van der 0oe 0oe,, one of o"r basic tasks as "man be bein!s in!s is to

acieve te !reatest amo"nt tat we possibly can do wit te least time and ener!y – s"rely one of te allmarks of intelli!ence itself. If a problem can be solved in one o"r rater ta tan n 14,444, ten it frees "p te oter 9,999 o"rs for rela%ation or, of co"rse, te sol"tion of oter problems. 9F Erik <ryn/olfsson and $ndrew Ac$fee make te point tat te bo"ndary between play or leis"re- and work

 

  operatin! as a form of social capital tat l"bricates and animates tose interconnections-.. Te @ or res"me may be entirely replaced by te 5inkedIn profile, te 2eople 2er 6o"r avatar, te +iverr embodiment or te Elance, oesk, "r".com, 99desi!ns, $ma)on Aecanical T"rk or +reelancer.com manifestation. $ (lo"tscore may become a i! priority to an employer, employer, as may s"cces s"ccessf" sf"ll contri contrib"t b"tion ionss to t tee ki kinds nds of pr probl oblem emss posed posed at fora fora s"c s"c as Inno Innoent entiv ive, e,  Ninei!ma or Yo"rEncore. Yo"rEncore. 8e mi!t see te ever more ab"ndant frontier of #"antification # "antification of o"r o "r social networkin! presences and te way in wic we sare and elp oters one's online presence mi!t be !raded by a vast m"ltiplicity of different points systems, weter te 2roP.com ("doP system for professional professional translators or te enerosity core tat is earned at te website ifterin! or te Tecnorati top "ndred blo! ratin!s- into comple% composite n"mbers tat elp determine o"r s"ccesses and, cr"cially, infl"ence in careers and in local comm"nities 9G. ory octorow octorow,, for for 9C instance, describes te idea of a 'tr"st c"rrency' called 8"ffle , wit te creation of reward points for s"ccessf" s"ccessf"ll interactio interactions ns and interca intercan!es. n!es. "c "c metrics metrics mi!t mi!t mean mean tat tat we are in te early sta!es of a !lobalised 0ep"tation ociety, and we may refine tem to !ain insi!ts into wo te most infl"ential people are in istory9? and in te contemporary contemporary world. world. It may become become almost non7 e%istent for people to ave a sin!le career or /ob title and te portfolio may become te absol"te norm99. Indeed, Indeed, wile division division of labo"r and specialisa specialisatio tion n were were important important in!redient in!redientss of te Ind"strial 0evol"tion, as eralded in te analysis of $dam mit in te cottis Enli!tenment, it may be te case tat sites s"c as killsare killsare accelerate te rise of 0enaissance 0enaissance men and women for wom sin!"lar skills and abilities are anatema and for wom, instead, a portfolio of interlockin! and interconnected interconnected abilities is te norm. 8orkin! life is also likely to can!e marke markedly dly as a res"lt of te increased tendency towards lon!evity – te retirement a!e of aro"nd C4, ori!inally created by <ismarck <ismarc k wen life e%pectancy in ermany was G144, is not likely to remain as a fi%ed or ossified landmark over over te co"rse of te cent"ry and beyond. beyond. 2ro/ects 2ro/ects s"c as 144 ays of prin!, wic wic trans tr ansfo form rmed ed a forme formerr bo"ti# bo"ti#"e "e clot clotin in! ! sop sop and a"to a"to body body sop sop in an an +r +ranc ancisc isco o into into a comm"nity learnin! space, may be arbin!ers of a wider process of comm"nity learnin! and re7 skillin! pro/ects anticipated by te ideas of Ivan Illic. 8e may reac a point were we are able to val"e time in partic"lar in a way tat "ses far more advanced metrics and work o"t ways to increase te efficiency and effectiveness of te time we spend in different different activities. activities. 8e mi!t even be able to work o"t ways ways to reac !eni"s level in certain fields well below a 14,444 o"r tresold. 8e may even reac te point were almost all of te world is connected to o"r information information era, partic"larly driven by developments developments s"c as <ra)il's <ra)il's telecentros movement wic is based on te provision of free open so"rce access to cyberspace as well as te 8orld 8orld omp"ter E%can!e wic takes "p discarded comp"ters comp"ters in te developed world and relocates tem in te developin! world. D"r economic systems may be completely completely transformed by te era of 'freeconomics' 'freeconomics' in ris 141 $nderson's terminolo!y . Tey may be entirely resaped resaped by te era of te 'socialstr"ct"red 'socialstr"ct"red world' world' as dissolved in many waysH tey note tat in 341: "sers collectively spent abo"t 344 million o"rs eac day on +acebook, a !reat deal of teir time bein! involved in te creation of content for oters to en/oy a lar!e proportion of wic is free and "nmonetised-. Tey observe tat tis is ;ten times times as many person7o"rs as were nee needed ded to b"ild te entire 2anama anal.> Tey also note f"rter tat none of tis is co"nted in 2 statistics as inp"t or o"tp"t, sowin! te need for more advanced and n"anced ways of meas"rin! economic activity, activity, partic"larly of te freeconomic variety. variety. 9G 8e ma may y se seee e% e%pon ponent ential ial advanc advances es,, te terefo refore, re, in tte e m mea eas"r s"reme ement nt of of infl" infl"enc encee in one form or anot anoter er.. In te te intellect"al spere, tis will e%tend ideas s"c as arfield's 19C3 of 'impact factor' to new levels. 9C is isc"s c"ssed sed in 6 6ass assan an A Aas" as"m m and and Aark Aark T Tove ovey y, ;T ;Tee 0e 0ep"t p"tati ation on ocie ociety= ty= 6ow 6ow Dn Dnlin linee Dpini Dpinions ons are are 0es 0esapi apin! n! te Dffline 8orld> 3413-. 9? $n ee%am %ample ple er eree is tte e wo work rk of teven teven  kie kiena na and and  arl arles es 8ard wo wo "sed "sed al!o al!orit ritms ms to to try to dete determi rmine ne wo wo te most infl"ential people in istory ave so far been. 99 et et  o odin din,, for ins instan tance, ce, favo"r favo"rss te "se of t tee term term 'm 'm"lt "ltipa ipation tional' al' to descr describe ibe o"r o"r worki workin! n! patt pattern ernss 7 ;it ;it means 'avin! more tan one occ"pation at a time', it's te workplace e#"ivalent of 'm"ltinational'>. 144 144 Ai Aitc tc  $nt $nton ony y, ;Te ;Te New New 0eti 0etire reme ment ntal ality ity>> 3 341 41, , p p.F .F-141 ris $nderson, $nderson, ;+ree= Te +"t"re +"t"re of a 0adic 0adical al 2r 2rice> ice> 3449 3449,, p.1 p.1::- ccites ites eor!e eor!e ilder ilder,, ;Aicroco ;Aicrocosm> sm> 1994-

 

  in te perspective of Aarina orbis, ;Te Nat"re of te +"t"re> 341:- – a sift anticipated anticipated by 2a"l <aran, one of te fo"nders of te Instit"te for te +"t"re, +"t"re, wo foresaw a sift from te 19G4s away from centralisation centralisation and towards te decentralisation decentralisation and node7based node7based interactions eralded by packet switcin!. switci n!. Te sarin! economy economy may represent anoter sta!e of econom economics ics in "man istory istory,, akin to te k"la e%can!e across te Trobriand Trobriand islands disc"ssed by <ronislaw <ronislaw Aalinowski, ;$r!ona"ts ;$r!ona"ts of te 8estern 8estern 2acific> 1933- and Aarcel Aa"ss, ;Te ift> 193F-, and espo"sed in te ideas of (arl 2olanyi 2olanyi and "y de <ord. &"st as te printin! press press accelerated accelerated te sift from fe"dalism fe"dalism to capitalism, partic"larly tro"! te development of te protestant spirit and its translation of teolo!ical val"es into mercantilist ones as ar!"ed by Aa% 8eber-, so peraps we may see a transition transiti on to a sta!e of economic and social or!anisation or!anisation tat may "ltimately be seen as different in kind as capitalism capitalism was from its fe"dal fe"dal antecedent. antecedent. Tis may be accelerated accelerated by te invention invention of a device, material or entity wose lon!er term ramifications mi!t not necessarily be partic"larly noticed at te time a!ain dependin! on o"r ability to filter te noise from te si!nal, in Nate ilver'ss terms, and make predictions ilver' predictions abo"t te f"t"re tat are as pinpoi pinpoint nt as a 2interest board-. $n e%ample ere is te development development of te stirr"p wic, as disc"ssed by 2ierre 5evy 5evy,, ;yberc"lt"re> ;yberc"lt"re> 3441, p.C- elped to condition te rise of fe"dalism and civalry by stim"latin! te development of eavy cavalry cavalr y. Ecolo!ical economics or ecolonomics- may over time become a dominant rater tan eterodo% intellect"al paradi!m. paradi! m. 8e may see a switc tat is as profo"nd as te ori!inal division of labo"r analysed by $dam mit mit wit a division of labo"r between "man bein!s and comp"ters, as disc"ssed by +rank 5evy and 0icard A"rname, ;Te New ivision of 5abo"r> 344-, wit "s specialisin! speciali sin! in tasks tat marsall te specific "man co!nitive capacity for pattern reco!nition and comp"ters specialisin! ever f"rter in tasks tat can be boiled down to r"les and al!oritms. 6erbert imon, imon, ;Te orporation= 8ill 8ill It <e Aana!ed by AacinesO> 19G4- may be proved ri!t in tat te tra/ectory of "man labo"r may be more and more into tasks tat involve face7to7face "man interaction, interaction, a process tat as already been witnessed over te co"rse of decades tro"! te rise of te tertiary and #"aternary sectors of te economy – in a sense a parado%ical concl"sion, !iven certain fears over te idea tat comp"terisation as led to !reater alienation, anomie, enn"i, or as ar!"in! tat ;in every ind"strial ind"strial revol"tion, some key factor of prod"ction is drastically drastically red"ced in cost. 0elative to te previo"s cost to acieve tat tat f"nction, te new factor is virt"ally free.> ilder ar!"es tat d"e to ste steam, am,  pysical force in te Ind"strial 0evol"tion 0evol"tion became virt"ally free compared to animal or "man "man m"scle power. power. $nderson ar!"es tat te triple play of improved processors, bandwidt and stora!e is allowin! an economy of bits rater tan atoms to trend towards te free in te era of te 'di!itisation of everytin!'. +or $nders $nderson, on, tere are today two markets= free and everytin! else wit some forms e%istin! alon! te spectr"m somewere, s"c as 5ibraryTin!'s +reemi"m model-, and e cites 8arton professor (artik 6osana!ar tat ;te demand yo" !et at a  price of +ero is many times i!er tan te demand yo" yo" !et at a very low price. "ddenly, "ddenly, te demand sots "p in a nonlinear fasion.> p.F4-. Economics as a wole, let alone m micro7concepts icro7concepts s"c as te ma%imisa ma%imisation tion of "tility ,  price elasticity or te e#"ilibri"m between demand and s"pply c"rves, is simply not tte e same in te era of bit freeconomics and te viral potential of free !oods, !oods, services and ideas. In a sense, te )ero is te infinite, ssince ince sometin! tat is released at )ero cost in a di!ital form can be clicked on or copied, in essence, at least a potentially infinite n"mber of times and copyin! itself as close to )ero mar!inal costs costs of reprod"ction-. 6ere te free rider  problem of traditional neo7classical economics economics is transformed into a free rider sol"tion, wit te te emer!ence of te s"perfans described by Nicolas 5ovell, ;Te "rve= +rom +reeloaders into "perfans= Te +"t" +"t"re re of <"siness> 341:- for wom free content is te basic startin! startin! point in te relationsip wit tose wo crea created ted it. 6e sees te era of di!ital content as bein! an a!e tat is freed from te scarcity of te era of ;te tyra tyranny nny of te pysical>. In anoter an!le on te #"estion, 0icard 5anam, ;Te Economics of $ttention= tyle and "bstance in te $!e of Information> 344G- sees te #"estion as one of yper7ab"ndance of information b"t were te scarcity involved is o"r attention to absorb and work wit ta tatt information. 6ere, style becomes paramo"nt in elpin! to si!npost were o"r limited and scarce attention so"ld be apportioned. an $riely, $riely, ;2redictably Irrational> 344?- ar!"es tat )ero cost is not /"st anoter price b"t is instead ;an emotional ot b"tton – a so"rce of irrational e%citement.> ome people mi!t prefer to refine tat to rational e%citement, e%citement, wit res"ltant rational e%"berance e%"berance.. It wo"ld certainly be a so"rce of rational e%citement and e%"berance if free access to reso"rces on, say, &oann <essler's or @iktor ca"ber!er's ca"ber!er's desi!ns wit free access to reso"rces on teir sortcomin!s and ways tey co"ld ave been improved- led to te development of free ener!y.

 

  a lowerin! of te kind of empaty tat is one of te basic fo"ndations of "manity itself, as e%plored by +rans de 8aal. In tat sense, so"ld we coose to make it so, we mi!t in fact see te advancement advancem ent of an $!e of Empaty rater tan its dimin"tion143. $fter all, all, in transactional transactional analysis analysis terms, te di!ital a!e provides "s wit ama)in! opport"nities for empatetic brid!e7b"ildin! – somebody in 5ondon can empatetically en!a!e in a disco"rse over te "se of asymmetric patterns in a Yo"T"be video of te work of composer Aorton +eldman wit somebody in <o!ota or <loemfontein. i imo mon' n'ss insi insi! !tt in into to t tee impo import rtan ance ce an and d rela relati tive ve scar scarci city ty of atte attent ntio ion n in an a! a!ee of information yper7ab"ndance also s"!!ests tat many professions and careers may pivot on elpin!  people to navi!ate information info rmation and to foc"s concentration and attention on wat is essential and not wat is periperal= it may be tat !"r"s and !"ides of bot attention and empaty become important as t"tors and mentors not only in traditional instit"tional settin!s s"c as "niversities b"t also on moree informa mor informall and a!ile a!ile bases. bases. Tomas Tomas avenport avenport and &on <eck, <eck, ;Te $ttenti $ttention on Economy= Economy= *nderstandin! te New "rrency of <"siness> 3443, p.- p"t forward te view tat attention is itself akin to te most important c"rrency in an era of ever more c"rrency systems-, pointin! o"t tat in 1C3 te best "niversity library library in te world, at B"een's olle!e olle!e in ambrid!e, o"sed only 199 books. Today we can access access millions millions and millions millions of ebooks at te drop of of a yperlink. yperlink. In s"c a conte%t, conte%t, te e%istenc e%istencee of 'attenti 'attention on pilant pilantropy ropy',', in te terminol terminolo!y o!y of $le% teffe teffen, n,  becomes cr"cially important. $n e%ample ere as been te 8orldcan!in! attention atten tion pilantropy p ilantropy  pro/ect wic as  as aimed to i!li!t i! li!t certain voices v oices and ideas ide as and "se te power of networks network s to elp spread spre ad and disperse disperse tem as widely widely as possible possible.. In partic"lar partic"lar,, e cit cites es tewart tewart <rand's <rand's 19C1 ;estination7risis> paper wic stressed te importance of people wit te co"ra!e and tenacity to crosss disciplines cros disciplines and fields 7 ;peo ;people ple wo we mi!t mi!t call circuit riders>14:. Te ability ability to make make connections between different teoretical and practical fields is more of a callen!e !iven te e%plosion of information information tat tat means tat tere is an ocean of dept dept to eac field itsel itself. f. 6olistic 6olistic tinkin! is, peraps, more important tan ever, and tose wo practice it so"ld peraps be !iven te re#"isite attention attention for teir efforts. efforts. teffen teffen also p"ts forward te idea of attention conservation, conservation, were people's attention attention is !"ided towards tat wic tr"ly matter matterss and away from te siren calls of ideas and disco"rses tat are "nimportant or falsely inflated. Dne day we may even "nderstand precisely ow spider silk is created and even be able to replicate its e%traordinary stren!t, wic is, wei!t for wei!t, five times as stron! as piano wire14. 0eadin! may be altered altered entirely as an activity activity,, wit pro/ects s"c s"c as AIT's Aedia 5ab's 5ab's ensory +iction attemptin! to e%pand te ori)ons of literat"re to one tat involves emotion translated translat ed into pysical sensation. sensation. &onaton 2orritt 2orritt may be ri!t in ar!"in! ar!"in! tat tere tere co"ld be a vast rise in te role of < corporations corporations – or!anisations or!anisations tat want to make profits, b"t to do so wit a !reater consideration of social and environmental impacts and benefits in teir decision7makin!. Tee lon!7t T lon!7term erm !ende !enderr imba imbalan lance ce in t tee field field of contra contracep cepti tion on may be overt" overt"rne rnedH dH as Nelly Nelly D"dsoorn, ;Te Aale 2ill= $ <io!rapy <io!rapy of a Tecnolo!y in te Aakin!> 344:, p.G- p"ts it, tere ave been tirteen new metods of contraception for women since te econd 8orld 8ar and none for men in te 34 cent"ry as as a wole. Te tree or more more decade7lon! disc"ssion disc"ssion and eraldin! eraldin! of a male e#"ivalent e#"ivalent to te female contracepti contraceptive ve pill may lead at some some sta!e to its realisation. realisation. +emale cont contra race cept ptio ion n may may c can an!e !e as well well,, wit wit work work by te te *niv *niver ersi sity ty of 8asi asin! n!to ton n "sin "sin! ! electrospinnin! to create a female condom tat delivers an anti76I@ dr"!, prevents pre!nancy and ten dissolves and disappearst. 143

0oman 0oman (r)na (r)naric ric,, ;Empaty ;Empaty== $ 6andbo 6andbook ok for for 0evol" 0evol"tio tion> n> 3 341 41-- calls calls for for an em empat paty y revol revol"ti "tion. on. Dne d day ay we may see a network of empaty m"se"ms aro"nd te world. 14: 6assa 6assan n Aa Aas"m s"m and Aark Aark Tove Tovey y, ;Te ;Te 0e 0ep"t p"tati ation on  oci ociety ety>> 3 341 411, 1, p pp.9 p.947: 47:-14 In 341: 341: resear researce cers rs at $ri $ri)on )onaa ta tate te *ni *niver versit sity' y'ss epartm epartment ent of of emis emistry try aand nd <ioc <iocemi emistry stry made made a  breaktro"! in terms of "nderstandin! te constr"ction constr"ction of spider's silk by "sin! te <rillo" <rillo"in in li!t scatterin! tecni#"e wit a low power laser of less tan :.F milliwatts. t $nnalee Ne Newit), io io9.com, F ecember 34 3413

 

  $ lon!7term process of !lobalisation may transform and modify itself into a world of !localisation !localisa tion – were tere is a f"sion of te !lobalisin! processes processes tat ave led to a '!lobal villa!e' on te one and wit ever !reater re7localisation of ener!y, activity and reso"rces on te oter and14F. $ lar!e n"mber n"mber of e%amples e%ist e%ist were s"c proces processes ses are at work, partic"larly partic"larly in te sper sp eree of wat wat is descr describe ibed d as bein! bein! 'yper 'yperlo local cal'' sites= sites= one e%amp e%ample le is tat tat of te te websi website te eelick+i%, were people can post "p information abo"t problems in teir local comm"nities s"c as blocked cycle lanes or potoles-, incl"din! "ploadin! pictorial and video doc"mentation, and ten "se te information information to elp !et tose problems fi%ed. In certain cases tese notif notifications ications ave  been passed to local !overnment, elpin! to facilitate a dialo!"e between citi)ens and officials to elp foster teir teir local environs. environs. $ similar similar dynamic dynamic operates operates in te form of Aeet*p Aeet*p or +o"rs#"are +o"rs#"are were te !lobalisin! and deterritorialisin! deterritorialisin! nat"re of te internet is "sed to elp meetin!s in reality, reality, representin! anoter translation and transf"sion of te world of bits into te world of atoms. Te world may also be balanced in a very different way in terms of economic vitality, wit $sia peraps acco"ntin! for alf of te world economy by 34F4 /"st as it did in 1?34 and for cent"ries before tat 14G NN's +areed Pakaria ar!"es tat ina as lifted 44 million people o"t of poverty in tirty years, and compressed te 8est's ind"strialisation tat took two "ndred years into int o t tose ose tree decades decades-- Te Te world world may be empa empatic ticall ally y m"lt m"ltip ipola olarr wi wit to"t o"t partic" partic"la larr 14C !eo!rapical !eo!rapic al areas or territories bein! e!emonic . $  i! i! speed rail rail renaissance renaissance may lead to an an interconnectedness between, say, ina and E"rope beyond te wildest of Aarco 2olo's dreams ass"min! ass"min ! tat a 31 cent"ry Aarco 2olo was not too b"sy readin! articles at te Aarco 2olo 2ro/ect to even be!in tinkin! abo"t transport transport systems-. <y 3144 $frica $frica may ave one tird of te world's  pop"lation st wit Ni!eria peraps avin! a i!er pop"lation tan te *$ in 34F4-, raisin! deep #"estions over ine#"ality of material reso"rces 14? and opport"nity, partic"larly !iven te le!acy of nineteent cent"ry colonisation of te continent by E"ropean powers and te still bitter le!acy of te slave trade149. Te entire #"estion #"estion of a sift to a post7fossil post7fossil f"el economy is also com complicated plicated by te imbalances tat we bro"!t into te 31 cent"ry= te 19.F million residents of New York state cons"me te same amo"nt of electricity as te C91 million people in s"b7aaran $frica, for e%ample st. 0aisin! te material material standards of te world to tat +irst 8 8orld orld model will accel accelerate erate te demands on ener!y s"pplies and environmental reso"rces to levels tat overwelmin!ly dwarf te  pre7e%istin! a!!re!ate a!! re!ate today. $s correctives to tese imbalances, we may coose to brin! brin ! more of a spiri spi ritt le level vel to te mater material ial distri distrib"t b"tion ion wi witi tin n o"r societ societie iess on te basis basis of te percei perceived ved 114 ma%imisation of overall appiness and welfare as a res"lt- , and may ave fo"nd f"ndamental 111 1 sol"tions to te twin problems of affl"en)a and povertitis 11 . If an or!anisation or!anisation s"c as as 8ater 8ater.or! .or! !et teir way, we may see everybody in te world wit access to safe water and sanitation witin o"r own lifetimes. 8e may see advances in te knowled!e of elements 113, of s"batomic particles s"c as te 14F Te sociolo!is sociolo!istt 0oland 0oland 0ober 0obertson, tson, wo created created te term, desc describes ribes a sit"ati sit"ation on involv involvin! in! te ;co7presen ;co7presence... ce...of of  bot "niversalisin! and partic"larisin! tendencies.> tendencies.> 14G 5a)a (ekic, The )conomist , ;Ae!acan!e= Te 8orld in 34F4> 3413-. 14C *nles *nless, s, o off co"rse, co"rse, power and iinfl"e nfl"ence nce sift towar towards ds partic" partic"lar lar !eo!ra !eo!rapica picall areas, areas, s"c as 0"ssia 0"ssia,, $laska, $laska, anada and candinavia as foressen in 5a"rence mit, ;Te New Nort> 3413st a arl rles es 0o 0obe bert rtso son, n, ;T ;Te e +a +ast steest <illi illion on>> 34 341 1314? 2artic 2artic"la "larly rly !iven !iven te te repor reportt by D%fam D%fam Intern Internati ationa onall in 341 341  ta tatt te rice ricest st 1L of te te world world pop"la pop"latio tion n own GL of !lobal wealt. 149 Te rrevivif evivified ied conce concept pt o off slavery slavery is in interes terestin! tin! in te te conte%t conte%t of te te macine maciness of te oil7based oil7based ind"s ind"strial trial era tat work for "sH onella Aeadows, for instance, saw erself as a kind of slave7owner wen se considered tat se  b"rned "p to :4 barrels of oil a year to !et er work done, done, as disc"ssed by $ndrew Nikifor"k, ;Te Ener!y of laves= Dil and te New ervit"de> 341st Aark 5ynas, ;N"clear 3.4> 341:114 114 0ic 0icar ard d8 8ilk ilkins inson on and and (ate 2 2ick ickett ett,, ;Te  pir pirit it 5ev 5evel= el= 8 8y y E#" E#"ali ality ty is <etter <etter for for Everyo Everyone> ne> 3 3414 414-. -. 11 111 1 isc"ssed isc"ssed by $so $sok k (osla (osla in 6erbert 6erbert irardet irardet and and A Ai!"el i!"el Aendonca, Aendonca, ;$ 0enewable 0enewable 8orld= Ener!y Ener!y,, Ecolo!y,, E#"ality> 3414-. Ecolo!y 113 113 $ re recen centt e%ampl e%ample, e, at te te tim timee of wri writin tin!, !, is t tee presen presentat tation ion in 3 341: 41: of n new ew evide evidence nce for for te e%ist e%istenc encee of an

 

  6i!!s <oson discovered in &"ly 3413- 11: and materials materials s"c as !rapene or carbyne- tat resape ever everyt yti in! n! fr from om e%pe e%peri rime ment ntat atio ion n to man an"f "fac act" t"ri rin! n!,, as well well as de deve velo lopm pmen ents ts tat tat ar aree as transformative transform ative as, say, say, te <essemer <essemer process process tat elped elped lead to te mass mass prod"ction prod"ction of steel. If  pro/ects s"c as tose "sin! te Nanoscribe : printer overseen by &ens <a"er at te (arlsr"e Instit"te of Tecnolo!y Tecnolo!y come to fr"ition, we may see materials materials tat are sim"ltaneo"sly sim"ltaneo"sly li!ter tan water and stron!er stron!er tan steel. Aatter.io, Aatter.io, a start"p connected connected to AIT's Aedia Aedia 5ab, may make :  printin! as "bi#"ito"s and easy as Insta!ram. B"ant"m mecanics and relativity teory may be s"ccessf"lly s"ccessf"l ly reconciled and "nified. "nified. $fter te #"estionable #"estionable res"lts of e%perim e%periments ents by te Dpera !ro"p at te ran asso "nder!ro"nd laboratory in Italy in 3411, we may discover particles tat move faster tan te speed speed of li!t. $dvances in #"ant"m #"ant"m teleportation teleportation may lead to fascinatin! fascinatin!  practical applications. 8e may see profo"nd advances in o"r "nderstandin! of )ones and realms tat lie at te frontiers of o"r c"rrent "nderstandin! of te nat"re of e%istence and te "niverse, for e%ample in te re!ions in remote parts of te "niverse were, from o"r point of view, space e%pands faster tan te speed of li!t 11. $ si!nificant proportion of o"r electricity may be made from sewa!e or we may "se bacteria !asoline 11F. @irt"al reality and a"!mented reality may take vast strides beyond te Dc"l"s 0ift tat, combined wit pro/ects s"c as te mitsonian :, may completely resape te way tat we visit p"blic instit"tions instit"tions s"c as m"se"ms. m"se"ms. $s well as an a!e of discovery in terms of knowled! knowled!ee of ow te o"ter world works, we may also see an a!e of e%ponential increase in inventions 11G tat rivals or even eclipses te spinnin! /enny, /enny, steam en!ine, cotton !in, steel, railways, and division of labo"r of te Ind"strial Ind"strial 0e 0evol"tion. vol"tion. 2rocesses 2rocesses tat ave remained remained so far in te realm realm of fantasy fantasy writ wr itin in! ! or sc scie ienc ncee fict fictio ion n may may be beco come me po poss ssib ible le an and d even even ever everyd yday ay,, s" s"c c as tele telepa pat ty y,  psycokinesis, invisibility, inv isibility, force fields, yperspace travel and tr travel avel tro"! wormoles. +ilm critic Aark (ermode mi!t even become evan!elistic abo"t te merits of : cinema or even  cinemaat some point in tis cent"ry. cent"ry. 5ondon radio station station 0esonance +A mi!t mi!t start broadcastin! broadcastin! "sin! notin! b"t 0"pert eldrake's eldrake's morpic resonances. resonances. N"clear ener!y may be based based on micro7 micro7 11C f"sion and tori"m  rater tan "rani"m "nless we decide collectively to avoid tat pat and !o completely complete ly down te pat of renewables-. renewables-. Time Time will tell11? wat te tra/ectory of tis cent"ry will  be, and a !reat deal depends "pon te coices 119  tat we make, bot collectively and individ"ally, "ncofirmed element wit atomic n"mber 11F at te I researc facility in ermany wic as previo"sly discovered si% oter new elements 7 opernici"m atomic n"mber 113-, 0oent!eni"m 111-, 111-, armstadti"m 114-, Aeitneri"m 149-, 6assi"m 14?- and <ori"m 14C-. 11: 11: &on c cil iller ler,, ;6i!!s ;6i!!s <oson <oson 2artic 2article le an and d Impa Impact ct on osm osmolo olo!y !y>> cite citess a scient scientist ist wo wo s"! s"!!es !ests ts tat tat te discovery of te 6i!!s boson mi!t be as si!nificant as te Newtonian creation of te basic e#"ations of mecanics tat elped make te Ind"strial 0evol"tion 0evol"tion possible. Its discovery completed te tandard A Aodel, odel, te c"rrent teory on wat makes all visible matter aro"nd "s wic is appro%imately FL of te total content of te "niverse-. 11 11 6el 6elm"t m"t at), at), ;;*lt *ltima imate te 6ori)o 6ori)ons= ns= 2ro 2robin bin! ! tte e 5imits 5imits of tte e *niv *nivers erse> e> 34134111F 11F &o &on n 0"bin 0"bino, o, ;;le lean an Aone Aoney= y= 2 2ick ickin! in! 8inners inners n t tee reen reen Tec <oom> <oom> 344 344?-. ?-. 11G $n ee%ampl %amplee is te ccrysta rystall cip cip ta tatt creates creates electricity electricity wen press"re press"re iiss applied applied to it it tat tat was was invented invented by te te (enyan $ntony A"t"a A"t"a in 3413. $noter is yntia (oeni!'s 8 8ello ello water weel. 11C 11C To Tori" ri"m, m, wic wic is t tree ree time timess as ab"nd ab"ndant ant as as "ra "rani" ni"m, m, mi! mi!t t t"rn t"rn o"t to be safe saferr tan "ran "rani"m i"m,, bot in in terms terms of potential reponses to +"k"sima7style problems and in terms of te propa!ation of n"clear waste, and also not linked in te same way to te development of n"clear weaponry. Tis is certainly te view of 0icard Aartin, ;"perf"el> 3413- or 0icard 6ar!reaves, ;Tori"m> 3413-.  3413-. 11? 11? $s 6a 6arol rold d Innis, Innis, ;Te ;Te <ias <ias of om omm"n m"nica icatio tion> n> 1 19F1 9F1-- noted, noted, perio periods ds were were t tere ere are are swin! swin!ss and ssif ifts ts in media systems lead to comple% intellect"al times were it is diffic"lt to acc"rately predict wat will transpire in te f"t"re and wat will not. 119 119 Dne ccent entral ral c coic oice, e, as disc" disc"sse ssed d by Tim Tim 8", 8", ;T ;Te e Aa Aaste sterr witc> witc> 341 34144- is te te #"es #"estio tion n of keepin keepin! ! te internet as open as possible and te need to preserve network ne"trality. $noter is wat we "se it for= sometin! in te order of ?4L of email is /"nk mail rater tan mail tat ad advances vances o"r skills or knowled!e to a new le level. vel. +inally,, tere are ever more e%act and well #"antified systems s"c as $le%a pa!e rankin!s wic sow wat +inally vol"me of traffic certain websites ave, embodyin! at a #"antitative level wat information fields we as a collective "manity are drawn to te most. D"r f"t"re patways are based in lar!e lar!e part on tose prioritisations, arisin! from te debates and disco"rses tat we ave abo"t wat matters te most, and, implicitly, wat doesn't.

 

  and te e%tent to wic we balance a work etic on te one and wit te spirit of play in, for e%ample, &oan 6"i)in!a's concept of ,omo Ludens or in te very serio"s, b"t at te same time en/oyable <"ckminster +"ller idea of a 8orld ame- tat is a central animatin! essence of creativity on te oter 134. $ f"rter cr"cial element is te te coice coice over over te facilitation facilitation of te free free flow of information and ideas= 2ierre 5evy, for e%ample, contrasts te lon!7term le!acy of te decision in ina to ban te early innovations in printin! wit teir relative liberty cent"ries later in E"rope. Te spirit of play is partic"larly important, and as serio"s as well as frivolo"s ramifications in te era of !amification131 a term invented by Nick 2ellin! in 3443 wic means te "se of !ame mecanicss or !ame mecanic !ame tinkin! tinkin! to solve solve problems problems in non7!ame conte%ts-. conte%ts-. Dne key e%ample ere is a tool s"c as Aaker ities la"nced by te Instit"te for te +"t"re, wic employs te power of crowd wisdom to !enerate predictions abo"t te f"t"re and in partic"lar ow te maker movement will transform society at lar!e. In te political spere te !ame $ +orce Aore 2owerf"l enco"ra!es non7violentt opposition to re!imes tat are totalitarian or a"tocratic. $ bo"nteo"s non7violen bo"nteo"s n"mber of !ames wic operate "sin! citi)en science to advance scientific knowled!e are a!!re!ated to!eter by citarter cita rter.. 8e may even one day reac a point were s"c tedio"s di"rnal and isypean isypean tasks as 133 ta% ret"rns   are e%ec"ted in some way tro"! !ame processes tat make tem seem at least moderately moderatel y en/oyable en/oyable – after all, many andelds andelds make li!t li!t work. Dne of te !reat !reat parado%es parado%es of o"r addiction to !ames is te fact tat certain m"ndane or repetitive tasks or movements can seem i!ly en/oyable wen part of an overall !ame arcitect"re wereas e%tracted from te !ame conte%t we wo"ld probably probably concept"alise concept"alise tem as bein! incredibly incredibly d"ll and enervatin!. $fter all, f"n is an incredibly motivatin! part of all activity13:, and is an inte!ral part of te kind of flow e%perience tat Aialy siks)entmialyi describes as ;optimal e%perience> 7 te kind of e%perience were we become yper7aware of te relativity relativity of time and, indeed, yper7"naware yper7"naware of time itselfand li!t li!t years seem seem to pass in mere seconds seconds.. Dne does does not need to know te most most abstr"ce abstr"ce elements of !ame teory to reco!nise reco!nise tat !amin! is a "!ely motivatin! part of "man c"lt"re and ac acti tivi vity ty – and and it can can be mars arsal alle led d fo forr a wide wide va vari riet ety y of p" p"rp rpos oses es tat tat can can e elp lp lead lead to advancements, advancem ents, pro!ressions pro!ressions and paradi!m sifts as well as in te spere of datin!, weter weter online or offline, as e%plored by *ri <ram-. 8atever calendar system we "se, we are now terefore at a crossroads and an inflection  point in "man istory. 2eraps one co"ld ar!"e tat istory itself is a contin"al caro"sel of inflection inflectio n points openin! "p vastly diver!ent diver!ent patways and tra/ectories tat we can coose, so lon! as we ave free will rater rater tan livin! in a deterministic deterministic fasion, fasion, for better or worse. worse. 6owever, 6owever, !iven te nat"re of te post7"tenber!ian post7"tenber!ian transitions transitions tat we are livin! tro"!, we face ma/or and f"ndamental coices abo"t ow we "se o"r reso"rces and apply o"r ener!ies – and wat kind of world we create for o"rselves. o"rselves. Te ma/or #"estion #"estion is not only wat kind of world we create today today,, 13  b"t wat kind of world we pass on to o"r descendents . Te s"n, s"n, wic wic is appro%ima appro%imately tely .G .G  billion years old, is pro/ected to be!in r"nnin! o"t of ydro!en in its core in abo"t ab o"t G billion b illion years' 134

ore @idal, ;*nit ;*nited ed tates tates>> 34413441- p pointe ointed d o"t o"t ta tatt ;N ;No o one today can predict predict wat wat !ames !ames post7 post7"tenbe "tenber! r! man will want to play.> play.> 131 $ndr)e $ndr)e// Aarc)e Aarc)ewski, wski, ;amificat ;amification= ion= $ imple imple IIntrod"c ntrod"ction tion and a b bit it more> more> 341:- cites artner artner resear researc c  pro/ectin! tat by by 341F 4L of lobal 1444 or!anisations or!anisations will "se !amification as teir primary mecanism to transform b"siness operations. 133 $lbert $lbert am" am"ss ad it it ta tatt we m" m"st st im ima!i a!ine ne isyp isyp"s "s app appy y. It mi! mi!t t be te te case case tat tat t tee only only time time we "man "manss are tr"ly appy wit isypean motions and tasks is wen we're playin! !ames. 13: $s e%pl e%plore ored, d, ffor or iinst nstanc ance, e, in in 0ap 0ap ( (ost oster er,, ;Teory ;Teory of + +"n "n for for  ame ame esi!n esi!n>> 3 3444413 $ccordi $ccordin! n! to te te rea reatt 5aw of t tee Iro Iro#"o #"ois, is, we we ave tto o con consid sider er t tee effec effects ts of o"r o"r actions actions on on tose tose w wo o com comee seven !enerations after "s. Tis raises te #"estion= is it it possible for "s to alter o"r tinkin! so tat we consider consider !enerations even f"rter beyond "s, peraps f"rter beyond te bo"ndaries of te 344,444 or so years tat omo sapiens as e%istedO e%istedO o"ld we, for instance, alter o"r beavio"r so tat tat we consider f"t"re descendents w wo o ave to deal wit te problem of te s"n no lon!er e%istin!, or is s"c a lon! time period beyond te scope and realm of "man co!nition and "man nat"re itselfO

 

  time, enterin! te red !iant sta!e of its evol"tion and be!innin! te process of its event"al deat 13F. <y tat point in time, eiter "man istory may ave already ended lon! before or, alternatively, we may ave reaced a sta!e were we are able to ne!otiate te callen!e to o"r life presented by te deat of te s"n, possibly possibly by avin! avin! colonies in different different parts parts of te "niverse. Tat is all a lon! way away from o"r lives at te moment, and te timescales involved dwarf te brief period tat omo sapiens as e%isted as a species, and even f"rter tan te spec"lations of, say, arles alton arwin, ;Te Ne%t Aillion Years> 19F3- or te 144,444 years analysed by 0o!er7Aa"rice <onnet and 5odewyk 8olt/er 3414-. 6owever,, one of te primary tasks of te "man bein!s alive in te twenty first cent"ry is to 6owever ens"re tat we pass on a s"stainable s"stainable life to te !enerations !enerations tat follow "s, some of wom may ave to ne!otiate ne!otiate calle callen!es n!es beyond beyond tose tat tat we face. Ne%t to te deat deat of te s"n, a lot of oter  problems do not, peraps, seem ins"rmo"ntable. Improvin! te #"ality and #"antity of o"r solar  panels and potovoltaic tecnolo!y in te conte%t of a solar infl"% of 1C 1 C petawatts 13G, te e%istence of wan wanso son' n'ss law law an and d t tee po powe werr of eor eor!e !e ild ilder er's 's 'f 'fib iber ersp spe ere re'' or e elm lmer er <rin <rin!s !s/o /ord rd's 's 'ypercomp"tation', for instance, pales into insi!nificance relative to te task of ne!otiatin! ow we e%ist e%i st wi wito to"t "t s" s"nli nli!t !t at all an embod embodim iment ent of t tee !reat !reat Aayan Aayan fear fear of u ch chib ibal al #-in #-in, te 13C Mswallowin! Mswallo win! "p of te s"n- . $n analyst of civilisation civilisation like (ennet (ennet lark wo"ld wo"ld obvio"sly ave to reconsider te entire concept of a 'ark $!e' $!e' if o"r "niverse ever reaces a point were all matter as collapsed collapsed into black oles – a possible possible landmark landmark in te timeline timeline of te far f"t"re. f"t"re. <eyond te #"estion of te callen!es tat we face, and te sol"tions tat we en!ineer tat resolve tem, tere is te wider #"estion not only of o"r overall lon!evity as a species b"t also of te potential for te e%tension of o"r capacity capacity for lon!7term tinkin!. tinkin!. Dne of te possible positive positive o"tcomes o"tcomes from te ee ee, for for in inssta tanc ncee, + +ra rase serr  aain, in, ;5ife of te "n "n>, >, 14t Aarc 3413 2eter iamandis iamandis and teven teven (o (otler tler,, ;$b ;$b"ndanc "ndance= e= Te Te + +"t"re "t"re is < <etter etter Tan Yo" Tink> 3413, p.G- point o"t tat te 1C petawatts fi!"re dwarfs te 1G terawatts per year cons"med by "manity by a factor of aro"nd five to"sand times. $noter way of encaps"latin! te sit"ation is te description by anny (ennedy, (ennedy, ;0ooftop 0evol"tion> 3413, p.11- were e states tat ;te ener!y potential in 34 days of s"nsine fallin! on Eart is te same as tat of all te coal, oil oil and nat"ral !as known to "mans>. 6e s"!!ests tat we may be in te era of te olar $scent. If we did s"ccessf"lly mana!e s"c an ascent, we mi!t !et close to bein! te kind of Type I civilisation envisa!ed by te 0"ssian 0"ssian astropysicist Nicolai Nicolai (ardasev in te 19G4s. &or!an 0anders, ;34F3= $ lobal +orecast for te Ne%t +orty Years> Years> 3413, p.31- points o"t tat te cost of solar panels since 19CF as dropped to one "ndredt of wat it was. Eicke 8eber, 8eber, director of te +ra"nofer Instit"te for olar Ener!y ystems in +reib"r!, ermany, believes tat it wo"ld be possible to ave an ener!y economy based on F4L solar ener!y by 34F4. Pacary aan aan observes  observes tat !lobal solar 2@ capacity is !rowin! e%ponentially from abo"t 3.3 8 in 3443 to 144 8 in 3413. (iley (ro reported at limate 2ro!ress on 3nd &an"ary 341 tat alifornia installed more rooftop solar in 341: tan in te pre previo"s vio"s :4 years combined. New advances s"c as te development of pervoskite7based solar cells are improvin! efficiency. efficiency. olar ener!y is at te eart of te analysis of +reeman yson, ;Te s"n, te !enome and and te Internet> 1999-. Even an event"al 144L renewable sit"ation is is envisa!ed in 6ermann ceer, ;Te Ener!y Imperative= 144L 0enewable Now> 341134 11- and in te erman Ener!iewende or Ener!y 2at tat aims to make ermany 144L renewable by 34F4. 8e may witness an invention or n"mber of tem tat f"ndamentally alter solar ener!y provision in te way tat te microcip f"ndamentally altered comp"tin! and lead to a clean and s"stainable ener!y system tat mi!t look, in retrospect, to ave been inevitable. In &an"ary 341, for instance, tere was n news ews from 6arvard *niversity's D2EN 3413 pro!ramme re!ardin! te development of a new flow battery based on molec"les called #"inones tat co"ld elp make renewable ener!y m"c more efficient by storin! lar!e amo"nts of electrical ener!y. ener!y. $noter frontier of e%ploration ere is te marria!e of space e%ploration and solar ener!y wit te development of space7based solar  power <2- partic"larly tro"! te efforts of a!encies a!encies s"c as te &apan $erospace E%ploration $!ency &$$and N$$. +"rtermore, /"st as te oil a!e ad prod"cts prod"cts s"c as plastics, so a solar solar a!e mi!t ave all sorts of  prod"cts accr"in! from it opef"lly rater more s"stainable s"stainable tan plastic, !iven tat it is 144L nonbiode!radable nonbiode!radable – an area for f"t"re inventions tat bypass tat nonbiode!radability and find sol"tions to it-. Dne wonders #"ite ow widely disseminated a olar oin wo"ld wo"ld be. +or aderents of te solar f"t"re in partic"lar, partic"lar, te early 31st cent"ry resembles a cess problem of te 'solar re%' variety, only wit te 'solaris re%' or kin! solar- waitin! to attain its ceckmate, rater tan be ceckmated. 13C ieter ieter < <roe roers rs an and d 0ob 0obert ert N"sb N"sba"m a"m,, ;o ;olar lar 0evo 0evol"t l"tion ion== 8y Aanki Aankind nd is o on n te  "sp "sp of of an Evol" Evol"tio tionary nary 5eap> 3413-. 13 13F F 13G

 

  sift from te a!e of te printed sift printed pa!e to te a!e of te screen screen or te sift, in 0icard 0icard 5anam' 5anam'ss 13? terminolo!y, to te a!e of te ;electronic word> - is te e%tension of o"r mental ori)ons, allowin! "s !reate !reaterr acces accesss to inform informat ation ion tat tat e% e%pan pands ds o"r knowl knowled! ed!ee of o"r deeper deeper isto istory ry and, and, by e%tension, o"r deeper f"t"res. omebody wit open access to vast n"mbers of tracts and doc"ments relatin! to lon! !eolo!ical eras does not ave te same conscio"sness as somebody in, say, say, te seventeent seventeent cent"ry for wom s"c informa information tion did not easily e%ist e%ist or e%ist e%ist at all. all. $!ain $!ain we ave been tro"! a  process wic is analo!o"s to opernicanism in terms of te decentrin! of te importance of te  present moment139. $s &.5.cellenbe &.5.cellenber! r! p"ts it, ;+or all we know, know, "man en#"iry on o"r planet is 1:4 still in its infancy.>   It is profo"ndly callen!in! to a narrow, "man7centric worldview to compreend tat 99.9GL of te istory of te "niverse occ"rred before te emer!ence of te first ominids, let alone te first "man bein!s, and tat we emer!ed in te first place after at least 3F forms of proto7"man bein!s – as disc"ssed in ary awyer and @iktor eak, ;Te 5ast 6"man= $ "ide to Twenty Twenty Two Two pecies of E%tinct 6"mans> 344C-. $!ain, so"ld we s"rvive into te lon!7 term and avoid catastropic o"tcomes, it is also interestin! to consider wat potential forms of evol"tion mi!t occ"r and te ways in wic tey mi!t lead to a resapin! of te "man bein! itself. &"an Enri#"e) envisa!es envisa!es a sift to anoter kind of "man bein!, te '6omo evol"tis', evol"tis', wose form and manifestation manifestation is not yet clear b"t may be as different different from 6omo sapiens as te latter was from Neandertals, enisova man or 6omo +loresiensis a non7Toklienian '6obbit'-. Tere is, terefore, an "r!ent need for te establisment of in!rained patterns of lon!7term tinkin! into bot o"r individ"al conscio"sness and also into te way tat or!anisations and instit"tions confi!"re teir pilosopies and plans of action. Te scenario tinkin! pioneered by te 0and orporation orporation as come a lon! way over te co"rse co"rse of decades, b"t as f"rt f"rter er to !o. Tere ave even been specific proposals and meas"res to attempt to cement s"c tinkin!, and deepen and e%tend wat te psycolo!ist Tom 5ombardo refers to as te capacity for 'f"t"re conscio"sness', s"c s"c  as te id idea ea prod"c prod"ced ed by eor eor!e !e Aonbi Aonbiot ot and Aatt Aattew ew 2r 2res escot cottt to cr creat eatee a '1447y '1447year ear committee' committ ee' tat a"dits parliamentary decisions decisions on te basis of te impact of policies not only witin a parliamentary parliamentary time frame frame of fo"r or five years, b"t instead instead in "p to one "ndred yea years' rs' time. Te +"t"re &"stice ommission ina"!"rated by te 8orld +"t"re o"ncil also p"t forward te idea of specific Dmb"dspersons wose roles wo"ld be to a"dit policies on te basis of teir effect on f"t"re !enerations. !eneratio ns. Tey mi!t not be able able to a"dit 14 #"adrillion #"adrillion years aead1:1, b"t s"c instit"tional can!es mi!t reap benefits and elp ward off te inevitable sort7termism tat is an aspect b"t only one- of o"r nat"re. 2redicaments, crises, catastropes, problems and callen!es are to an e%tent, terefore, relative. $ !reat deal of tis process is f"ndamentally f"ndamentally a mental one= wile it is not c"rrently easy to climb Everest, it as certainly been a !reat deal easier after te con#"est not only of te mo"ntain b"t also te abstract concept of climbin! Everest itself by 6illary and Ten)in! Nor!ay in 19F:. o"pled wit wit an awareness of realities, realities, an optimistic optimistic attit"de and mental framework framework is a neces nec essa sary ry prere# prere#"is "isite ite of every every advanc advancem ement ent.. It may may even even be te te case case tat tat s"c s"c optim optimism ism,, 13? 139

199: Df cco"rse o"rse,, all sorts of pilosop pilosopies ies from <"dd <"ddism ism tto o mindf"lne mindf"lness ss stress stress te importa importance nce of te present present moment moment in terms of te way tat we live o"r lives or peraps wat t.2a"l called te 'n"nc stans' or eternal present- b"t at te same time we are now aware in different ways from previo"s c"lt"res of te depts of te processes and developments in te past fo"rteen billion years at least- of te istory of te "niverse and te past fo"r billion of o"r planet. Dn te #"estion of livin! in te present moment, pe peraps raps te work of someone s"c as &on &on a!e co"ld  be seen as preparin! "s for an a!e of information e%pansion tat re#"ires more precise and metic"lo"s attention and concentration in order to pick o"t te si!nal from te noise in Nate ilver's terminolo!y-, wit te e%ample of is efforts to !et "s to pay close attention to te so"nds of te present moment aro"nd "s rater tan bein! distracted by to"!ts tat isolate "s from tat present embodiment and reality. 1: 1:4 4 &.5. &.5.c ce ell llen enbe ber! r!,, ;T ;Tee end end is no nott n nea ear> r>,, Aeon, 14t +ebr"ary 341 1:1 $s e%pl e%plore ored, d, ffor or iinst nstanc ance, e, in in << << +" +"t"re t"re's 's Timel Timeline ine of tte e +ar +ar +"t"r +"t"ree 341341-..

 

  ima!ination of different possible f"t"re scenarios, and desire to overcome callen!es is ard7 wired1:3 into te very essence essence and fabric of "manity "manity itself. itself. "c an 'optimism 'optimism bias' may be be at te eart ea rt of o"r appro appro%im %imat ately ely 344,4 344,444 44 year year record record of s"cces s"ccesses ses,, acie acievem vement ents, s, ad advan vances ces and 1:: occasionall follies, occasiona follies, manias and errors .  If s"c an optimism optimism bias bias is part of o"r o"r basic co!nitive co!nitive and c"lt"re make7"p, owever, owever, it may also e%ist in tandem wit te kind of loss aversion demonstrated demonstrated  by $mos Tversky and aniel (anemann, wit an in!rained and !eneral co!nitive bias towards approacin! risk on te basis of preferrin! to avoid losses rater tan makin! !ains 1:. "c "c a comple% mi%t"re of !eneral optimism and !eneral an%iety over loss may elp to e%plain a !reat deal not only abo"t o"r psycolo!y b"t also abo"t te way tat we make narratives and stories and ow tose act as frameworks for te practical actions tat we take in te world. 8e raveno"sly seek new frontiers, b"t almost always wit a fear of losin! si!t of te previo"s sores alon! te way. 2eraps tat bipolarity is an inte!ral part of te "man condition 1:F. In partic"lar, o"r narratives are created in part tro"! te #"estions tat we ask – accordin! to (evin (elly, today we face a yper7 ab"ndance of answers and wat becomes scarce as a corollary are !reat #"estions. iven tis propensity to be concerned abo"t loss as m"c as motivated by !ain, o"r !reatest fear, rater like te sky fallin! in tat pla!"es $steri% and Dbeli%, is tat of te end of o"r life and indeed life in !eneral on tis planet – a fear made more prono"nced by o"r ever e%pandin! knowled!e of #"ite ow special te conditions ave been on Eart to allow life to !row and flo"ris in te first place. Tis is empasised, for instance, in avid 8 8altam, altam, ;5"cky 2lanet= 8y Eart is E%ceptional E%cepti onal and 8at Tat Aeans Aeans for 5ife in te *niverse> 341-. 8ito"t 8ito"t certain key factors factors – te precise si)e and orbit of o"r moon, te be!innin! of plate tectonics aro"nd two billion years a!o, or te planet's ma!netic field preventin! "s from bein! eviscerated by solar wind- – we wo"ld  probably not be ere at all. D"r !reatest fear is not only tat we e%perience e% perience a cataclysm tat ends o"r e%istence in a similar manner of te dinosa"rs, b"t tat we mana!e to en!ineer te conditions for o"r own demise tro"! o"r own activity. activity. D"r !reatest possibility is tat we protect o"r life and its lon!evity on o"r planet, and make it possible for it to !row and establis itself elsewere too, and in conditions tat are less propitio"s1:G. Every sin!le acievement of "man istory as of co"rse been created in te face of obstacles and resistances, some !reater, some lesser. If we are open and positive we may be able to acieve tr"ly awesome tin!s in te ne%t cent"ry tat lay te fo"ndations of lon! cent"ries of development developm ent aead. Tis is partic"larly partic"larly te case if we develop narratives narratives tat sim"ltaneo"sly sim"ltaneo"sly point 1:3

Tali  arot, arot, ;Te Dptimism Dptimism <ias= <ias= $ To"r o off te Irrat Irrational ionally ly 2ositive 2ositive <rain> <rain> 3413-. 3413-. Df co"rse co"rse,, te #"estion #"estion of an optimism bias is also related related to oter factors, bot of nat"re and n"rt"re. $noter area of e%ploration and discovery in o"r knowled!e is tat of personality caracterisation and ttypolo!y ypolo!y,, wit te development of systems s"c as te ennea!ram. In te &"n!ian ta%onomy, for e%ample, certain types s"c as ET2s may be partic"larly  prone to optimism. INT&s, of wic I may peraps be one, may find it rater more callen!in! – "nless tey a ave ve constr"cted some sort of optimistic system or framework to work or tink witin. 1:: Ne"ro Ne"roscien scientific tific evidence evidence provided, provided, for e%ample, e%ample, by 6arvar 6arvard d *nivers *niversity's ity's aniel aniel cacte cacterr and and onna onna $ddis$ddiss"!!ests tat o"r sense of te f"t"re is closely related to o"r sense of te past. If we see istory as, say, ;nasty ;nasty,,  br"tis and sort> or as te re!ister of mankind's mankind's ;crimes, follies and misfort"ne misfort"nes> s> ten we are likely to see te f"t"re as involvin! more of te same. In contrast, a sense of pas pastt pro!ress may instil a correlated sens sensee of potential or latent f"t"re pro!ressions. 1: Dne of of te !rea !reatt desire desiress of o"r o"r times times may b bee spa space ce ci civil vilisa isation tion,, wic wic is an an "pside "pside and and poten potentia tiall !ain. !ain. $t t tee same time, o"r !reatest fear is te loss of o"r live and abitability on Eart. 1:F Aark Aark Twai Twain n "r! "r!ed ed "s tto o !o fo forr it and and see seek k te n new ew front frontier iers= s= ;T ;Twen wenty ty years years from from now now yo" yo" wi will ll be more more disappointed by te tin!s tat yo" didn' didn'tt do tan by te ones yo" did do. o trow off te b bowlines. owlines. ail away from te safe arbor arbor.. atc te trade winds in yo"r sai sails. ls. E%plore. ream. iscover.> iscover.> In a similar vein, vein, <arnett  Newman saw art as an advent"re advent"re into an "nknown world – for tose willin! to take te risks. risks. 1:G Df cco"rse o"rse tere are co"nte co"nter7vie r7views ws tto o te 'rare eart ypotesis ypotesis'' associa associated ted wit 2eter 8ard and and onald onald <rownlee, ;0are Eart= 8y omple% 5ife is *ncommon in te *niversse> 3444-. $ccordin! to 0ene 6eller and &on $rmstron!, ;"perabitable 8orlds>  Astrobiolo.y, 341- tere may be planets tat are far better conditioned for life, s"c as ones were te tectonic activity takes lon!er to appen and provides an environment tat is ore stable.

 

  o"t problems and limitations b"t at te same time ima!inatively provide answers 1:C.  D"r world will also be optimised if we develop te best possible forms of e%can!e of ideas, conversations, disc"ssion disc"ssio n and disco"rse, and and balance te twin twin processes of listenin! listenin! and talkin!. talkin!. In doin! so, we can take advanta!e of te invisible and of te network, te wisdom of crowds 1:?  and, at te same time, avoid wat arrett 6ardin described in 19G? as te 'tra!edy of te commons' and marsall wat 0.<"ckminster +"ller called 'livin!ry' rater tan 'killin!ry' to en!ineer a better f"t"re for "s and o"r descendents1:9. Te information information e%plosion14  provides "s wit a m"ltiplicity of tools= we can "se tose tools for an ever vaster m"ltiplicity m"ltiplicity of p"rpose p"rposes. s. In partic"lar, partic"lar, as Aark tevenson tevenson notes, a !reat deal of o"r f"t"re depends on o"r narratives= ;one tin! I became very concerned abo"t is wen we talk abo"t te f"t"re, we often talk abo"t it as dama!e and limitation e%ercise. Tat needn't be te case – it co"ld be a 0enaissance.> 11  8en one considers tat anyone anyone wit wit an intern int ernet et co conne nnect ction ion can can ave ave free free access access to di!iti di!itised sed versi versions ons of all all te doc"m doc"ment entss of te 13 1: 0enaissance , as well as tose of ancient reece and 0ome  tat elped stim"late and crystallise it and te e%tant doc"ments of all oter ancient civilisations-, it is "nar!"ably te case tat it wo"ld  be e%tremely callen!in! to try to e%plain to one's !randcildren or !reat7!randcildren !reat7!randcild ren precisely wy o"r c"lt"re c"lt"re ad not mana!ed mana!ed to ensrine ensrine a 0enaiss 0enaissance ance of its own. $fter $fter all, as +rancis +rancis ollins, ;Te 5an!"a!e of 5ife= N$ and te 0evol"tion in 2ersonali)ed Aedicine> 3414- p"ts it 7 ;wito"t #"estion, #"estion, man's knowled!e of man is "nder!oin! te !reatest revol"tion revol"tion since 5eonardo.> 5eonardo.> 1:C

6elen (elle (eller, r, ;Dptimism> ;Dptimism> 194:- diffe differenti rentiates ates between between an optimis optimism m based based on aawarene wareness ss of re realiti alities es and and a

false tat is a creed of positivity awareness= ;Dptimism tat does not;te co"nt te cost is o"seoptimism b"ilded on sand.> In a similar vein, wito"t tere is tat te observation obse rvation by 0omain 0oland tat pess pessimism imism oflike te a mind does not e%cl"de te optimism of te will.> 1:? 0ater 0ater tan tan a si simpl mplee optimi optimism sm or pe pessi ssimis mism, m, so someb mebody ody s"c s"c as 6 6ans ans 0osl 0oslin! in! de descr scribe ibess imself imself as as a 'possibilist'. 1:9 $ rater rater similar similar distinction distinction to 0 0iane iane Eisle Eisler's r's propos proposition ition of t tee two modes modes of omina omination tion based based on a foc foc"s "s on on deat- and 2artnersip foc"sed on s"pportin! life-. 14 omebo omebody dy bor born n today today co" co"ld ld spe spend nd an en entir tiree life lifetim timee cond cond"ct "ctin! in! a st"dy st"dy cons constr"c tr"cted ted enti entirely rely on on te meta meta narrative e%plorin! te narrative of information overload itself. itself. Dne co"ld spend a f"ll workin! life today may maybe be "p to C4 years or lon!er, dependin! on o"r demo!rapy and o"r siftin! sense of te f"ll span of a workin! lifemerely e%plorin! wat kind of writin! tere as been been abo"t ow m"c writin! tere as been. $llison avana!, ;ociolo!y in te $!e of te Internet> 344C, p.:- cites a st"dy wic claims tat between 199C and 1999, at a relatively early period in te evol"tion of te web, tere were 1F,444 websites and :,444 newspaper and ma!a)ine articles p"blised on te s"b/ect s"b/ect of information overload itself. Dne interestin! perspective on te matter is  provided by 0ob by 0ob Aattews wo, Aattews wo, in 3413, printed o"t 4.41L of 8ikipedia 44V feat"re articles- as a F444 pa!e  book. In 3413 it was estimated tat tere were aro"nd aro"nd :,??C,FG9 articles in total wic is e#"ivalent e#"ivalent to 1,G:?.G vol"mes of te Encyclopedia <ritannica. Tat is only in te En!lis lan!"a!e of co"rse, for 8ikipedia is also a  poly!lot's paradiseH as "san "san Aeyer, ;&immy 8ales and 8 8ikipedia> ikipedia> 3413, p.9- points o"t, at te time of writin! it as articles in 3?3 lan!"a!es, lan!"a!es, from anskrit to In"ktit"t. Tere ave of co"rse been many cases cases of people complainin! abo"t a certain amo"nt of false information on 8ikipedia b"t, on te oter side of te e#"ation, Tyler owen, ;Te $!e of te Infovore= "cceedin! in te Information Economy> 3414- describes 8ikipe 8ikipedia dia as ;one of te most impressive pro/ects of orderin! orderin! tat "man bein!s ave "ndertaken.> Dne day people may look at a  pro/ect like 8ikipedia 8ikipedia in te way tat we mi!t today look at at catedrals, wonders of te world or oter masterpieces of past civilisations. $ccordin! to &ason Aerkoski, it is ;becomin! o"r c"lt"re's final te%tbook>. It will certainly be interestin! to observe ow te encyclopedia evolves in te f"t"re, wit a"!mentation s"c as te  pro/ect led by $ndy Aabbett to record a"dio from tose wo a ave ve 8ikipe 8ikipedia dia entries in order to add f"rter caracter and layers to te site, site, wic la"nced in 3413. 8ikipedia is one sol"tion to te problem of ow we a!!re!ate information in tis era. $r!"ably a Twitter Twitter News +eed is anoter, as are b"r!eonin! sites s"c as coop7 it, <"))feed, 5istverse, 0eddit, 0anker.com 0anker.com or i!!. $ tool s"c as Aedia!a)er aims to provide a di!est of cr"cially important news stories in a form tat is is concise and condensed on to a sin!le pa!e. Aeanwile, te rise of listicles articles in te form of lists- is a similar way of approacin! te pra!matics of yper7ab"ndance. 11 11 B"ot B"oted ed by by Aar Aaria ia 2op 2opov ova, a, ;;C C Esse Essent ntia iall <ook <ookss on D Dpt ptim imis ism> m> at at <rain 2ickin!s.or!, 3411. 2ickin!s.or!, 3411. 13 <yron 0eese, 0eese, ;Infinit ;Infinitee 2ro 2ro!ress !ress>> 341:, 341:, p pp.3G7 p.3G7CC- p"ts p"ts it like tis= ;8e ;8e aare re s"itably s"itably impressed impressed tat a @inci sketced a desi!n for a s"bmarine s"bmarine and a flyin! macine. <"t te inventors of o"r a!e ave p"t a billion trans transistors istors on an area te si)e of a posta!e posta!e stamp. o tose two tin!s even compareO> compareO> 1: +or e%am e%ample ple,, te almos almostt C4,444, C4,444,444 444 word wordss of reek reek an and d 0oman 0oman classi classical cal te%t te%tss and te te almost almost ?,44 ?,444,4 4,444 44 words words of 0enaissance te%ts arcived and freely available at te 2erse"s i!ital 5ibrary amon!st oters-.

 

  6e mi!t be ri!t, alto"! an even more optimistic view mi!t s"!!est tat we are acceleratin! even faster in o"r knowled!e and "nderstandin! tan we were wen te Teena!e A"tant Nin/a T"rtles T"r tles first appeared. appeared. &"an Enri#"e Enri#"e)) refers to te potential of te period as 'te 0enais 0enaissance, sance, times a to"sand'. 5"ciano +loridi, +loridi, ;2ilosopy ;2ilosopy and omp"tin!> omp"tin!> 3443, p.1:1- ar!"es tat it ;is diff diffic"lt ic"lt to limit oneself always to te same confined, epistemic space, if one can navi!ate so easily across te discipli disciplinary nary bo"ndari bo"ndaries. es. Tis Tis is one of te reasons reasons wy te comp"ter comp"ter a!e as also been described as a ret"rn of te 0enaissance mind.> Tere are, terefore, all te in!redients for a lon!7term swerve into a new era, to "se te terminol term inolo!y o!y of tepen tepen reenbla reenblatt, tt, ;Te ;Te werve= werve= 6ow te 8orld <ecame <ecame Aodern> Aodern> 34113411$nybody wit an internet connection connection as free and open access to a te%t s"c as 5"creti"s's ;Dn te  Nat"re of Tin!s> ;e rer"m nat"ra>- wic was painstakin!ly painstakin!l y rediscovered by 2o!!io <rac <racciolini ciolini and was one important node in te crystallisations and cemical reactions of ideas tat formed te 0enaissance periodH tey also ave direct access to di!itised versions of <racciolini's andwritin! wic developed into te 0oman typeface- or a work of is s"c as ;+acetiae>. None of "s need to #"est tro"! libraries to "neart s"c te%ts – tey are freely available at te click of a mo"se or to"c of a tablet. o"ld we coose to do so, terefore, terefore, we ave te toolkits toolkits to create a swerve or m"ltiple swerves- into an era of istory wit interlinked elements of te 0enaissance or te Enli!tenment Enli!t enment tat at te time, or in retrospect, mi!t t"rn o"t to be a belle epo#"e – and avoid te descent into a 'ark $!e' as depicted by &ane &acobs 1. +ree +ree access access to te reli!io"s, reli!io"s, spirit spirit"al, "al,  pilosopical and metapysical te%ts of te world's wo rld's previo"s civilisations may ma y elp to sp"r a can!e in conscio"sness similar in some senses to te perceived $%ial $!e spannin! ?447344 <Eidentified identifie d by (arl &aspers, wo noted te rise of fi!"res s"c as onf"ci"s, <"dda and ocrates in a similar time period, period, even if in markedly different different social and c"lt"ral mil milie"%. ie"%. +"rtermore, +"rtermore, if we follow te concl"sions of Ian Aorris, ;8y te 8est 0"les – for Now= Te 2atterns of 6istory and wat tey reveal abo"t te +"t"re> 3411-, we may see te e%ponential tra/ectory of worldwide social development development contin"e to to increase. increase. It mi!t mi!t be te case case tat we we create wat co"ld co"ld be called called 1F te $!e of Dpport"nity   or te $!e $!e of Dptimi Dptimism. sm. Dr, Dr, peraps, peraps, in a portmant portmantea", ea", te $!e $!e of Dptit"nity. Dr te $!e of Dppormism. 2ict"re below= below= * ens"s <"rea" data on world pop"lation from 14,44 14,444 4 < to 3414 $. Tis is a 1G classic e%ample of e%ponential !rowt. o"rce= 8ikipedia. 8ikipedia.

1

6opef" 6opef"lly lly we d don' on'tt av avee a dark a!e a!e ae aead ad of "s wic wic  is #"ite #"ite as dark dark as te te period period aro"n aro"nd d :?4,444 :?4,444 y years ears aafte fterr te <i! <an! were stars ad not yet formed, as disc"ssed by Aicael oser, ;$rc 3.1= E%it trate!ies> 3411F 1F 2art 2artic ic"l "lar arly ly for fans fans of te te A Aar arss 0 0ov over er Dppo Dpport rt"n "nity ity.. 1G Te !rap !rap b belo elow w is a re relat lative ively ly ssimp imple le one. one. $note $noterr of tte e key key deve develop lopmen ments ts ttat at we are are llike ikely ly to see in te te information a!e is ever more ima!inative forms of !rapical representation of a!!re!ations of data. data. It is interestin! to consider tat entities as "bi#"ito"s as te bar cart, pie cart and line !rap date back only to te 1C44s wit teir invention by 8illiam 2layfair. 2layfair. $n interestin! e%ample ere is oo!le's '<i! 2ict"re' vis"alisation !ro"p wit teir '8ind AapW pro/ect created in 3413. $noter e%ample is te word clo"d or ta! clo"d- wic is "s"ally dated to te work of tewart <"tterfield in 344. $ccordin! to avid A Acandless, candless, information is bea"tif"l. D"r desi!ners are blessed wit te task of findin! ways to make its presentation ever more so.

 

 

In te 0oman empire, all roads led to 0ome . Today, oday, almost all te ma/or #"estions #"estions of o"r social, political, political, economic and environmental lives pivot on te relationsip between ab"ndance and scarcity or between yper7 ab"ndanc ab"n dancee and yper7scar yper7scarcity city.. In partic"l partic"lar ar tere tere are two diver!e diver!ent nt developm developments ents appenin! appenin! sim"ltaneo"sly= sim"lta neo"sly= te all7pervasive all7pervasive and "nprecedented "nprecedented ab"ndance of "man bein!s on te planet at te same time as te profo"nd and marked contraction in te n"mbers of a vast variety of different species. Tis disparity, disparity, and its ramificati ramifications ons in terms of te welfare and lon!evity lon!evity of te nat"ral world, raises te overwelmin! #"estion of weter or not "manity will coose to make tis cent"ry te ;era of restoration in ecolo!y> 1? accordin! to te dream of E.D.8ilson and manifest te 's"stainable society' envisa!ed by 5ester <rown or te 'restorative economy' described by 2a"l 6awken or te 'steady state' economy foreseen foreseen by 6ermann aly aly.. $ccordin! $ccordin! to &esse $"s"bel, director of te 2ro!ram for te 6"man Environment at 0ockerfeller *niversity, te 31 cent"ry co"ld in fact become te be!innin! be!innin! of s"c a ;reat 0esto 0estoration>. ration>. Tis corresponds corresponds in many ways to te concept of a sift to an Eco)oic Era in Tomas <erry, ;Te reat 8ork> 1999, p.:- – a ;transition tat as no istorical parallel since te !eobiolo!ical transition tat took place GC million years a!o wen te period of te dinosa"rs was terminated and a new biolo!ical a!e be!an.> In tis view,, te can!e tat is re#"ired of "s is one tat involves a transition to a f"ndamentally view f"ndamentally different era from tat of te eno)oic. $s te inter!lacial 6olocene, a part of te eno)oic wic started aro"nd 11,C44 years a!o wit te end of te last Ice $!e, and only interr"pted in climactic terms by minor periods s"c as 1C

te '5ittle Ice $!e' between between aro"nd 1344 and 1C44-, as !iven way to te $ntropocene $ntropocene we face te callen call en!e !e of makin makin! ! de decis cision ionss t tat at lead lead to balanc balancee and lon!ev lon!evity ity rater rater tan tan insta instabi bilit lity y and volatility. In tat sense, tanley Aanaan's perspective is tat te $ntropocene wic e dates to te be!innin! of te Ind"strial 0evol"tion in aro"nd 1?44 7 ;a reasonable Spoint from wic to date te be!innin! of te capacity of "mankind to si!nificantly sape Eart and its essential life s"pport systems>st- m"st be en!ineered and created into bein! a "stainocene "stainocene a term first created by <ryan +"rnass in 3413-. Tat period as witnessed witnessed !reat conflicts conflicts and problems b"t also e%traordinary e%traordinary steps forward and advances – 0obert +o!el, ;Te Escape from 6"n!er and 2remat"re eat> 1C

2erap 2erapss te oc occa casio sional nal m moan oan or owl owl of of conf"si conf"sion on at o" o"rr inte interne rnett era is ssome ometime timess driven driven by aan n instinc instinctt tat all all o"r yperte%t roads so"ld indeed lead somewere, to one sin!"lar place or te%t or idea, instead of /"st leadin! on to more yperte%t roads wic lead on to more yperte%t yperte%t roads etc. etc. In tat sense, maybe te yperte%t"al yperte%t"al world is a metapor or micro7representation of an ever e%pandin! "niverse wito"t a fi%ed centre rater tan te fi%ed system tat dominated te to"!t of te pre7opernican a!e. 1? In a sense sense,, a res restor torati ation on era era wo wo"ld "ld b bee a kin kind d of 'n 'nost ostos' os' o orr omeco omecomin min! ! – a ret"rn ret"rn by "mani "manity ty to o"r o"r own own selfood after a lon! odyssey or leopoldbloomsey- into realms realms far beyond "s in space and time. time. 2eraps te  parado% of s"c an era mi!t be tat it also also coincides wit an accelera acceleration tion of o"r wanderin!s beyond o"r planetary ome. st tanley Aanaan an, ;" ;"sstainocene> ne> 3 341-

 

  encaps"lates te period from 1C44 to 3144 as bein! distinct in "man istory !iven te escape from encaps"lates a norm of cronic maln"trition, a do"blin! of avera!e lon!evity, an increase of avera!e body si)e of over F4L and a fifty7fold increase in te avera!e incomes of te people of te *$ and &apan and comparable increases in te co"ntries of western E"rope 19. Tese processes processes,, bot ones tat tat ave led to forms of pro!ress and ones tat ave led to dama!e and problems, were ina"!"rated by te ei!teent cent"ry Ind"strial 0evol"tion and ten catalysed f"rter in wat 8ill teffen describes as te ' 'rea reatt $cce $ccele lerat ratio ion' n' from from aro"n aro"nd d 19F4 19F4 onward onwardss wic wic invol involved ved a co conca ncate tenat nation ion of interlockin! take7off points and e%ponential rises in everytin! from te dammin! of rivers to te n"mber of telepones, from paper cons"mption to o)one depletion to international to"rism to forei!n direct investment levels to te loss of tropical rainforests and woodlands 1F4. $ vast panoply of coices, callen!es and con"ndr"ms terefore face "s in te early sta!es of te 31 cent"ry cent"ry.. In partic"lar partic"lar,, we face te callen! callen!ee of makin! makin! o"r tecnolo!y tecnolo!y and desi!n desi!n inte!rated inte!rate d into nat"re rater tan tan separated from it. Dne absol"tely absol"tely central area ere is te field field of  biomimicry wic adopts nat"ral processes and ten adapts tem and modifies tem in order to create tools and inventions tat work armonio"sly wit te ecosystems from wic tey were derived 7 one e%ample of wic is te desi!n of Norman +oster's 'erkin' Tower, wic was based on te @en"s flower basket spon!e wit its lattice e%oskeletonstH anoter bein! te aeroplane wit te 8ri!t broters' st"dy of te dra! and lift of v"lt"res- or @elcro, wic was based on te !rapplin! ooks of seeds. Te East!ate b"ildin! in 6arare, Pimbabwe, copies te way tat termites "se eart masses and ventilation t"nnels to keep te constr"ction constr"ction in a state of omeostasis in terms of temperat"re. $ similar desi!n process as been "sed in 6arvard *niversity's TE0AE system were w ere roots roots b"ild b"ild comple comple%, %, : str str"ct "ct"r "res es wi wit to"t o"t re#"ir re#"irin in! ! a centr central al comma command nd str"c str"ct"r t"ree or  prescribed roles – inspired by te way tat termites in a co"ntry s"c as Namibia constr"ct teir "nder!ro"nd "nder!r o"nd nests. Te water strate!ies strate!ies of te Namibian fo!7baskin! beetl beetle, e, wic "ses its sell as a condensin! s"rface for moist"re, as inspired seawater !reeno"ses allowin! food prod"ction in arid re!ions of te world1F1. 8e can, terefore, marsall insi!ts from te sark's paintbr"s to te !ecko's foot 1F3  in order to desi!n and create in ways tat occ"py a liminal space between te s"pposed artificiality of te tecnolo!ical and te nat"ral processes tat ave evolved over billions of years on tis planet 1F:. omp"tin! itself mi!t be radically altered, wit an e%ample bein! te rise of ne"romorpic comp"tin! s"c as te attempt to mirror insect ne"ronal networks led by Aicael cm"ker at te +ree *niversity *niversity of <erlin. $nnalee Newit), Newit), ;catter, ;catter, $dapt $dapt and 0emember= 6ow 6"mans 8ill 8ill "rvive a Aass E%tinction> E%tinction> 341:- e%plores or!anisms s"c as cyanobacteria, cyanobacteria, wic were te first to evolve potosyntesis and date from at least 3.? billion years a!o, in order to !ain insi!ts into ow te "man species species can ens"re lon!evity. lon!evity. Tis is partic"larly partic"larly key in terms of resilience resilience to te oscillations of climate tat ave led to alternations between a !reeno"se planet and an iceo"se 19

+o!el caracteris caracterises es tis tree "ndred "ndred ye year ar period period as b bein! ein! an era era of 'tecnopy 'tecnopysical sical evol"tion' evol"tion' wic as seen radical advances in wealt, ealt and "man control of te environment and ste cientific, ind"strial, biomedical and c"lt"ral revol"tions tat ave "nderpinned "nderpinned tat control. 6e sees tis period, e%perie e%perienced nced by only ten !enerations of "mans o"t of C,444 in o"r wider istory, as bot "ni#"e and on!on!. 1F4 8ill teffe teffen n et et al al,, ;lo ;lobal bal a an!e n!e and te Ear Eart t ys ystem tem>> 344 344, , pp.1 pp.1:37: :37:-st $note $noterr e%am e%ample ple are te carbon carbon nan nanot" ot"be be 'e7 'e7wi wiske skers' rs' ta tatt aare re based based on cat cat's 's wiske wiskers rs develo developed ped by nanotecnolo!y researcers from te <erkeley 5ab and te *niversity of alifornia <erkeley tat may be "sed to elp robots sense teir s"rro"ndin!s. 1F 1F1 1 $ndr $ndrew ew im imms ms,, ;an ;ance cell te te $ $po poca caly lyps pse> e> 34 341: 1:-1F3 2eter +orbes 3414-. 3414-. cien cientists tists at 5ewis 5ewis and lark olle olle!e !e and te *niversity *niversity of alifornia, alifornia, <erkeley <erkeley,,  ave ave mimicked te comple% microstr"ct"res of te !ecko's foot in order to create an adesive. 1F: &anine &anine <eny <eny"s, "s, ;;<io <iomim mimicry icry>> 34433443- cites cites a n"mbe n"mberr of differ different ent deve develop lopmen ments ts ta tatt co"ld co"ld come come from from o"r adaptation of nat"ral processes, s"c as ;satterproof ceramics drawn from moter7of7pearl, cancer c"res compliments of cimpan)ees, perennial !rains inspired by tall!rass, t all!rass, comp"ters tat si!nal like cells, and a closed7 loop economy tat takes its lessons from redwoods, coral reefs, and oak7ickory forests.> Te Termite rmite towers are also kept at a omeostatic ?G de!rees +areneit, wic is seen as 'bestin!' o"r tecnolo!ies of central eatin! and air conditionin!.

 

   planet &osep (irscvink's 'nowball Eart'- over te co"rse of billions of years. reater a!!re!ation of bi! data on te comple% concatenation of ca"ses tat led to climate can!es and cycles in te past may elp "s ne!otiate ne!otiate o"r c"rrent sift and p"t in place mecanisms mecanisms and systems to brin! te !reatest possible resilience and prosperity in te face of f"t"re ones. 6"ma 6" man n bein! bein!ss are, are, teref terefor ore, e, in !reate !reaterr s"pply s"pply tan tan ev ever er,, as ar aree "man "man inte intelli lli!en !ence, ce, in!en"ity and potential. potential. Te "man ( strate!y of reprod"ction, reprod"ction, rater rater tan r strate!y, strate!y, as proved remarkably remarkab ly s"ccessf"l. s"ccessf"l. It is estimated estimated tat it took from te dawn dawn of "man istory to 1?4 tto o reac te first billion in terms terms of world pop"lation. 2rior to tat, te sit"ation sit"ation was a completely different different one. Tere were certain certain interr"ptions interr"ptions to te !eneral rise in pop"lation pop"lation of co"rse, s"c as te reat +amine of 1:1F71C or te <lack eat tat peaked in te years 1:?7F4, b"t even wit te !eneral sift "pwards "pwards pop"lation was still still eld witin certain certain matematical matematical limits. limits. Indeed, at one sta!e somewere somewe re between 1F4,444 and C4,444 years a!o it is likely tat "manity almost became e%tinct, wit an event tat may ave been an $frican dro"!t red"cin! te pop"lation level to aro"nd 3,444. $fter tat nadir, nadir, ten, te process as been one of overall e%pansion. Te 2aleolitic 2aleolitic $!e $!e 1F ad appro%imately one million inabitants, te Neolitic ad ten million , te <ron)e $!e ad 144 million1FF. iven iven te e%traordina e%traordinary ry power of e%ponentia e%ponentials ls and ockey stick stick !raps1FG  and te e%tremely brief period of te fossil f"el a!e 1FC, were we rapidly "sed "p a !reat deal of te reso"rces tat were be#"eated be#"eated to "s from 344 million years of istory, istory, te past two "ndred years ave witnessed an acceleratin! and f"ndamental f"ndamental step7can!e beyond te limitation and bo"ndary of one billion. Te twentiet twentiet cent"ry saw infant infant mortality mortality decrease by 94L, 94L, maternal maternal mortality by 99L, and life e%pectancy increase by over 144L1F?. In te space of a 1F9 sin!le "man "man lifetime lifetime all is is in a pr proce ocess ss of marke marked d tr trans ansfor forma mati tion. on. 8en 8en I was was born born in 19C? , I was appro%imately te ,3G,9?,F4Gt person  person alive at te time and te C?,CF,F9,3G1st ever to ave lived 1G4-. In my ,3G,9?,F4Gt lifetime, lifetim e, te total as !one "p by almost tree billi billion, on, close to a do"blin! in tirty five years years.. Te world I am in today is most certainly not te same one as te late 19C4s, wic itself was radically differ dif ferent ent from te world world my parents parents were were born born into. into. Dn te ori) ori)on, on, and in te absenc absencee of cataclysms partic"larly of te more callen!in! kind of entity tat Timoty Aorton refers to as 'yperob/ects' – in oter words, callen!es tat derive from so"rces tat are ;massively distrib"ted in time and space relative to "mans> in wat e depicts as an $!e of $symm $symmetry-, etry-, tere is notin!  b"t te same "pwards tra/ectory, albeit wit a certain de!ree of lowerin! in terms of overall !rowt ! rowt 1G1 rate . $ccordin! $ccordin! to *nited Nations pro/ections, pro/ections, we may reac 9 billion by 34F4 or before, and by 3144 tere may be in te order of 14.9 billion 1G3 people in e%istence, wic is teir medi"m7variant medi"m7variant 1G: fi!"re . $ss"min! $ss"min! tat we do not follow "p Ernest Ernest 0"terford's 0"terford's 1949 discovery tat tat 99.9L of te 1F

Aark Aark 5ynas 5ynas,, ;Te o od d pec pecies ies>> 341 34133- asser asserts ts ta tatt wen we deve develop loped ed a!r a!ric" ic"lt" lt"re re 14,444 14,444 years years a!o, a!o, tere tere were more still more baboons in e%istence tan "man bein!s. 1FF Aassim Aassimo o 5iv 5ivi7< i7<acc acci, i, ;;$ $ oncis oncisee 6i 6isto story ry of 8orl orld d 2op"l 2op"lati ation> on> 3413, 3413, p.3p.31FG 1FC

Aicae Aicaell Aann, Aann, ;Te ;Te 6ock 6ockey ey t tick ick aand nd t tee l lima imate te 8ars 8ars== ispat ispatce cess from from te +ron +rontt 5ine 5ines> s> 3413 3413-&ere &eremy my 0i 0ifkin fkin s"!!ests s"!!ests tat in, ssay ay,, fifty to"s to"sand and y years' ears' time, people people will will describe describe o"r era era o orr te one tat is endin! today- as te arbon $!e, rater as we "se terms s"c as <ron)e $!e or Iron $!e today today.. It will of co"rse  be s"bdivided wit landmarks s"c s"c as Edwin rake's drillin! for oil in 2ennsylvania in 1?F9 or te creation of te later- vertically inte!rated tandard Dil corporation in 1?C4. 1F? 2eter 2eter i iama amandi ndiss and t teve even n (otler (otler,, ;$b ;$b"nd "ndanc ance= e= Te Te +"t +"t"re "re is < <ett etter er Tan Tan Yo" Yo" Tink Tink>> 341 3413, 3, p.i%p.i%1F9 Tere Tere were weren't n't #"ite #"ite a !a)il !a)illio lion n pe peopl oplee al alive ive,, t to"! o"!  tat tat was was te te year year of te te neolo!ism.  neolo!ism.  1G4 I person personally ally find find te te not notion ion of seve seven n billion billion " "man man be bein! in!ss almo almost st entir entirely ely impos impossib sible le to !et !et my mind aro" aro"nd, nd,  b"t ten e#"ally wen one considers tat tey mi!t be in te order of :31,4:F,G3,?39,941,444 ants ants in te world, accordin! to $nt8eb, $nt8eb, it is diffic"lt to compreend te reality of tis. 1G1 Te peak peak !row !rowt t perio period d was was 19G 19GF7C F7C4 4 were were wor world ld pop"l pop"lati ation on was was incre increasi asin! n! by 3L p per er ye year ar.. 1G3 Terr errefo eform' rm'ss <i <io o i ity ty Aap Aap pro pro/ec /ectt is b base ased d on a p pro/ ro/ect ection ion o off 1 11 1 bil billio lion n by 3114. 3114. 1G: Te *N *N p"blis p"blis  teir teir 8orl 8orld d 2op"la 2op"latio tion n 2ro 2rospe spects cts ever every y two y year ears. s. ee, ee, for inst instanc ance, e, anny anny orl orlin! in!,, ;2op"lation 14 <illion> 341:-. Estimates of s"c a vastly comple comple% % penomenon as pop"lation !rowt, !iven te myriad factors involved, of co"rse vary. $s an e%ample, te &"ne 341: pro/ections by an/eev anyal of e"tsce <ank are markedly lower, wit a world pop"lation peak of ?.C billion in 34F4 wic ten declines to appro%imately

 

  atom is empty space and condense te seven billion of "s inside a sin!le apple by removin! te empty space from o"r atoms 1G, ten we are faced wit a sit"ation were te "nprecedented level of "man pop"lation provides "s wit callen!es in terms of food, water and selter, as well as ow to en!ineer en!i neer proper lifestyl lifestyles es and work patterns patterns for as many people people as possible possible on a planet planet of finite finite space and dimensions. 2recisely were pop"lation ends "p is not a !iven. 8eter or not tat is a peak, or weter  pop"lation rise beyond a possible of ten or is c"rrently a matter of con/ect"re.. will con/ect"re <y 3:?1 tere mi!t be CF platea" billion billion people, foreleven wombillion, ttere ere may need to be to"sand floor skyscrapers skyscrapers1GF. $lternat $lternatively ively te 31 31 cent"ry mi!t mi!t be te period period of platea" platea" and stabilisat stabilisation= ion=  by te middle of tis cent"ry cen t"ry te world fertility fer tility rate may, may, for te first fir st time in "man istory, fall to st te replacement rate of 3.1 or below . $ peak peak mi!t even be reaced reaced in aro"nd 34F4 or so leadin! leadin! to an overall levellin!7off and stabilisation stabilisation a F44 or 1,444 year period tat some describe, peraps  pessimistically, as a kind of 'demo!rapic winter'-.. $ !reat deal, of co"rse, depends "pon te advances in medicine tat are accr"ed over te co"rse of time, partic"larly in terms of overall mortality mortalit y rates. 5imitations 5imitations s"c as te 6ayflick limit may be overcome, overcome, te ompert) c"rve may  be refasioned, and te !eneral barrier of aro"nd 134 years of life may be reaced re aced and s"perseded  by more and more people wit te 133 year old &eanne alment no lon!er bein! a statistical aberration-. $s noted in my previo"s work, tis period tat, in te terms of 5"cien En!elen, m mi!t i!t  be called te era of 6ealt 3.4- is one tat is described by Eric Topol as te reat Inflection in medicine medi cine.. E%amples E%amples incl"de incl"de te rise of intelli! intelli!ent ent pills wic incl"de incl"de sensors sensors to monitor monitor te medication medicati on "se of patients, apps s"c as 'eAedonline' 'eAedonline' wic alert patients of medication medication sced"les, vaccines tat do not re#"ire refri!eration d"rin! transport, or te rise in te levera!in! of te collective intelli!ence of te tr"ly e%traordinary social network e%plosion 1GG for clinical p"rposes 1GC. ompanies s"c as +la!sip @ent"res and Dsel are workin! on pills tat incl"de beneficial  bacteria and are e%plorin! weter or not bacterial imbalances ca"se problems s"c as ron's disease or "lcerative colitis 1G?.   ea earc rc en!ines en!ines and databases databases s"c s"c as Epistem Epistemonik onikos os or ases atabase provide portals tro"! wic medical practitioners and patients can attain foc"sed and filtered information information on diseases and medicines. $ pro/ect pro/ect s"c as i!itised iseases la"nced la"nced by te 0oyal olle!e of "r!eons in 5ondon in 341: allows people to e%amine specimens in : of  people datin! back ba ck to $n!lo7a%on times wic are too fra!ile to be andled andle d in te world of atoms rater tan te world world of bits. 2ro/ects s"c s"c as te ancer enome 6"b, ancer ancer enome 2ro/ect 2ro/ect and te ancer enome $tlas ave "sered in a new era in terms of te classification of different forms of cancer 1G9 and point te way towards te discovery of te c"re for cancer, wic co"ld ? billion by 3144, as disc"ssed by 6anna by 6anna <arnes, <arnes , <<, 39t eptember 341:. 1G 1G 2a"l 2a"l  en en,, ;T ;Tiny iny findi findin! n! o ope pene ned dn new ew ffro ront ntie ier> r>,, << <<  New News, s, 3Ft &"ly 344C 1G 1GF F 0obe 0obert rt il ilve verb rber er!, !, ;T ;Tee 8or 8orld ld Ins Insid ide> e> 19 19C1 C1-st In 19C4 19C4 te te wor world ld fert fertili ility ty rrate ate wa wass  .F .F.. Tis Tis ad ad fal fallen len to 3. 3.F F by by 3414 3414.. ertai ertain n ccas ases es ave ave b been een remarka remarkable ble== Iran fell from C in 19? to 1.9 in 344G. 1GG Te sseer eer ran!e and dept of so social cial networkin! networkin! sites sites,, and and te tere re ever ever !reater !reater precision precision to certai certain n interest interestss and and fields of activity, activity, is remarkable in scale and scope. ee, for e%ample, ttp=JJen.wikipedia.or!JwikiJ5istXofXsocialXnetworkin!Xwebsites.. $n interestin! #"estion wo"ld be tat of ow ttp=JJen.wikipedia.or!JwikiJ5istXofXsocialXnetworkin!Xwebsites many of tese will still be in e%istence or, indeed, !rowin! in, say, say, 3144, or 3F44, or :444, or beyond. 1GC 5ee $ase, an  oldma oldman, n, A Aeredi eredit t o"ld, o"ld, &on Noseworty Noseworty,, ;<r ;<rin!in! in!in! te ocial ocial Aedia Aedia 0evol" 0evol"tion tion to 6ealt 6ealt are> 3413-. 1G 1G? ? Aor Aor!a !ana na Aat at"s "s,, In Inaabita bitat. t.ccom om,, 1F 1Ft &an"ary 341. 1G9 Te #"es #"estio tion n of a c"re c"re for for cancer cancer is is an in inter terest estin! in! aarea rea in in ter terms ms of te te op openn enness ess o off inform informati ation. on. $n impor importan tantt case ere is tat of &ack $ndraka wo, at 1F, invented a new metod for detectin! a rare type of pancreatic cancer. $s Elliot 6armon ar!"ed at creativecommons.or! on C t &an"ary 341, a lar!e part of te breaktro"! was a res"lt of readin! so"rces at open access databases wit reative ommons licenses. licenses. $ndraka ar!"es tat access to knowled!e is, in fact, a basic "man ri!t. $ similar sit"ation e%ists in te case of 2ro/ect Aarilyn r"n by Isaac Yonemato wic is makin! its work open so"rce and is also rater interestin!ly plannin! to "se <itcoin for donations. In te absence of a "niversal c"re for cancer cancer avin! been "nearted, one cannot ima ima!ine !ine any better response to a dia!nose of cancer tan to create a work of bea"ty s"c as tat by Eric mit, ;5ive Now= $rtf"l

 

  drastically drastic ally len!ten len!ten life e%pecta e%pectancy ncy1C4  f"rt f"rter erin in! ! a wi wide derr lon lon! ! tr trend end since since,, as $n!"s $n!"s eat eaton on observes, tere is not a sin!le co"ntry in te world were infant or cild mortality today is not lower tan it was in 19F4- and once a!ain a!ain e%tend te !ap between between birt and deat rat rates. es. In te meantime, meantime, social networkin! sites s"c as ancer in ommon allow s"fferers of cancer te opport"nity to !ain solidarity wit eac oter tro"! sarin! teir stories and e%periences and a pro/ect s"c as enomera provides a for"m for te sarin! of information and te prod"ction of novel remedies and sol"tions diseases. ases to s"c as te '@isconti coort' of fo"rteen patients in +rance, wo were 'f"nctionally c"red' wit anti7retro viral dr"!s also point to te possibility of a lon!7term c"re for te 6I@ vir"s wic first emer!ed in 19?:1C1. Aeanwile developments s"c as te work by Eli)abet <lackb"rn, arol reider and &ack )ostak on te en)yme 'telomerase' may a!ain ave ramifications for life e%pectancy, and te potential developments from pl"ripotent stem cells are vast in scope 1C3.   Te se#"encin! of te !enome and te discovery of N$ ave ramifications, ar!"ably, as !reat as te ori!inal invention of te alpabet itself, and "ser in a potential world te era of 5ee 6ood's '2 medicine'- were vast n"mbers of people aro"nd te world follow te pat of &.rai! @enter and &ames 8atson and ave te f"ll tree billion letters of teir N$ se#"enced 1C: by  by companies s"c as 3:andAe, deDE and Navi!enics. 8e may also see more istorical fi!"res avin! teir !enomes se#"enced,, /oinin! te ranks of Dt)i te Iceman wo died over F444 years a!o- as well as 0icard se#"enced III wose remains were discovered in a car park in 5eicester in 341:1C. t t"di "dies es an and d entit entitie iess s"c s"c as te Inter Internat natio ional nal 6apA 6apAap ap 2r 2ro/e o/ect ct or en< en<ank ank ave ave also also e%tended o"r knowled!e of diseases, teir distrib"tions and teir potential sol"tions. oo!le are developin! developin ! 'smart' contact lenses lenses tat monitor blood s"!ar levels levels for diabetics. diabetics. ompanies ompanies s"c as Dram are developin! developin! systems systems teir first first la"nced in 341:- tat allow allow te vis"ally impaired impaired to overcome teir disability to an e%tent, wit, for instance, te combination of a tiny di!ital camera and speaker directly readin! so"rces of te%t. Tere are a wide n"mber of diseases and syndromes tat ave so far proved beyond c"res wic mi!t /oin diseases s"c as smallpo% and rinderpest in te annals of istory 1CF. <ill ates reported in &an"ary 341, for instance, instance, tat India ad !one tree years wito"t a sin!le case of wild  poliovir"s and is terefore declared dec lared 'polio7free' 'polio7free ' as a res"lt of o f campai!ns by or!anisations or!anis ations s"c as te t e lobal 2olio 2olio Eradication Eradication Initiative and 0otary Internationa International. l. Tis is part of a wider !oal to make te entire world polio polio free by 341?. "c developments developments will nat"rally nat"rally accelerate accelerate if problems s"c Aessa!es of 6ope, 6appiness and 6ealin!> 3411-. 1C4 Time will tell if te te trans"m trans"manism anism envis envisa!ed a!ed by &"lian &"lian 6"%ley 6"%ley,, ;0eli!ion ;0eli!ion 8i 8ito"t to"t 0evelation> 0evelation> 193C-, 193C-, wic wic  posits te potential of e%tension of "man "man life beyond te "ndred years into te to"san to"sands, ds, and peraps even  beyond, will prove to be real or mere ima!ination. In 344, for instance, $"brey de rey p"t forward te view tat te first person to live to a to"sand mi!t be abo"t si%ty years old at te time. It is an e%traordinary ambition to transm"te aniel efoe or <en/amin +ranklin's ap aporism orism into ;Tere is notin! inevitable b"t ta%es> ta%es> b"t it remains to be seen ow far pro!ression is possible in reality. 1C1 1C1 $t tte e tim timee of wri writin tin!, !, A Aar ark k <o <oye yerr re repo port rted ed for for in inab abita itat. t.co com m on :rd November 341: tat researcers at 8asin!ton *niversity ad discovered tat a to%in from bees called melittin mi!t ave an instr"mental role in limitin! te 6I@ vir"s. Nat"rally if tere is pro!ress from s"c medica medicall researc ten solvin! te problems of bee colony collapse disorder wo"ld be, if anytin!, more important. 1C3 $ team led by 6 6ans78 ans78illem illem noeck noeck at te ol"m ol"mbia bia entre entre for Translat Translational ional Imm"nolo!y Imm"nolo!y and te te ol"mb ol"mbia ia tem ell Initiative p"blised a paper in 341: revealin! ow pl"ripotent stem cells ad been transformed into l"n! and airway cells for te first time. 1C: (evin (evin avie avies, s, ;Te ;Te R1, R1,444 444 eno enome= me= T Te e 0e 0evol vol"ti "tion on in N N$ $ sse#" e#"enc encin! in! and and te New New Era of of 2ersona 2ersonali) li)ed ed Aedicine> 34141C 2atric 2atrick k 8alt 8alter er,, ;eno ;enome me sst"dy t"dy to p p"rs "rs"e "e 0ic 0icard ard III's III's m medi edical cal istory istory>, >, Chemistry orld , 11t +ebr"ary 341 1CF 8e are c"rre c"rrently ntly ssome ome dista distance nce away away fr from om te Aartians Aartians iin n 6. 6..8 .8ells, ells, ;8ar ;8ar of te te 8orlds 8orlds>> 1?9?1?9?- wo wo ad s"ccessf"lly con#"ered all teir infectio"s diseases, to"! tere is c"rrently c"rrently pro!ress  pro!ress on  on diseases s"c as yaws, drac"nc"liasis, ookworm, malaria, yellow fever, measles, m"mps, r"bella, lympatic filariasis and cysticercosis. c ysticercosis. In te case of smallpo%, te work of people s"c as onald $.6enderson wit te Eradication pro!ramme can!ed te sit"ation from one were appro%imately :44 million people died from it to one in te 31 st cent"ry were, opef"lly, nobody at all will te last deat bein! in omalia in 19CC-.

 

  as te resistance of pato!enic bacteria to antiobiotics are solved, and if te dan!er of a rapid velocity of transmission of a pandemic as a res"lt of a yper7connected world is averted.. It mi!t even prove possible possible to find a c"re for te common cold. Tose interested interested in tat partic"lar partic"lar spere of investi!ation and e%ploration wo are involved in i!er and f"rter ed"cation instit"tions can freely listen to oral istory testimonies testimonies of tose wo worked at te ommon old *nit in alisb"ry  between 19FC and a nd its clos"re in 1994 at te <ritis 5ibrary online o nline arcive 1CG.  $!ain ere we see te  potential te a!!re!ation a!Dr!anisation !re!ation of bi! dled ata to in oo!le an e%ample s"c s" c as te collaborat ion between oo!le and an d te 8orldof6ealt tatdata +l" Trends, or incollaboration te creation of vol"nteer pro/ects s"c as I5INet I5INet Infl"en) Infl"en)a7li a7like ke Illness Illness "rveilla "rveillance nce Network-. Network-. Te nanoscale nanoscale revol"tion revol"tion also  promises ealt  ealt improvements, impro vements, wit an e%ample bein! te "se of nano silver s ilver particles part icles to kill !erms "p to GF4 different bacteria- some of wic ave become resistant to antibiotics 1CC. $!ain, ere we face vast potential improvements as a res"lt of ever more intelli!ent forms of a!!re!ation a!!re!ati on of yper7ab"ndant yper7ab"ndant data and information. $n e%ample is 2ro/ect Tyco, Tyco, named named after Tyco <rae wose data was cr"cial to (epler's form"lation of te laws of planetary motion-. "rated by te *niversity *niversity of 2ittsb"r! 2ittsb"r! rad"ate cool of 2"blic 6ealt, tis pro/ect as di!itised and collated p"blic ealt records data !atered from weekly disease records and s"rveillance tables- from 1??? to 341: wit in7dept analysis into diseases s"c as smallpo%, polio, measles, r"bella, m"mps, m"mps, and pert"ssis. pert"ssis. Aeanwile Aeanwile devices s"c as accelerometer accelerometerss ave been "sed to !ain importa imp ortant nt data concerni concernin! n! de!enera de!enerative tive diseases diseases s"c s"c as 2arkins 2arkinson's on's and $5 5o" eri!' eri!'ss 1C? disease- . Te Te way in wic wic dista distance ncess of time and and space space ave been been dissol dissolved ved in te te post7 post7 "tenber! a!e as also ad ramifications in s"r!ical terms, wit te rise of more advanced metods of remote s"r!ery. s"r!ery. Te transatlantic transatlantic 5indber! Dperation Dperation performed by r.&ac#"es r.&ac#"es Aaresca"% Aaresca"% in eptember 3441 may become "bi#"ito"s alon! wit systems s"c as PE* or te da @inci s"r!ical system. In anoter frontier of knowled!e, initiatives s"c as $merican "t and *biome *biome are lookin! to "nderstand te trillions trillions of bacteria wo live on and in o"r bodies and to marsall tat knowled!e to f"rter te era of personalised microbial ealtcare. 8eter one accepts te artesian d"alism of mind and body or not, tere may also be !reat advances and pro!ressions pro!ressions in te spere of mental ealt – and in te knowled!e and "nderstandin! "nderstandin! of te interco interconne nnecti ction on betwe between en te pysical pysical and te te psyco psycolo lo!ic !ical. al. Tecni ecni#" #"es es s"c s"c as  biofeedback, e%plored for e%ample by researcers resear cers at te Ne"roterapy Ne"ro terapy entre entr e of allas, may prove effective effect ive in amelioratin! and c"rin! depressions. depressions. $dvances in ne"roscience ne"roscience ave provided "s wit insi!ts into te can!es in brain activity from processes s"c as meditation wic in many cases may be more cond"cive to s"ccessf"l o"tcomes tan a !reat deal of medication 1C9. $s Aartin Aartin eli!man p"ts it, fo"rteen of te ma/or mental ealt problems are now treatable by medication or  psycoterapy  psycoterap y, wit two of tem panic disorder disor der and blood and in/"ry in/ "ry pobia- ;virt"ally ;virt"a lly c"rable>. 8e may terefore see all manner of advances in o"r knowled!e of bot mental and pysical ealt as profo"nd as te ascendancy of te !erm teory of disease tat rose to prominence from te middle 1?44s and displaced pre7e%istin! ideas of miasma and conta!ion, partic"larly tro"! te work of 5o"is 2aste"r and 0obert (oc. $nd we may see rates of pro!ress tat b"ild on previo"s cent"ries== Nobel 2ri)e winner 0obert +o!el as calc"lated, cent"ries calc"lated, for instance, tat over te co"rse of te twentiet twentie t cent"ry te avera!e a!e of a person's first incidence of eart disease was delayed by nine years, cancers by ei!t years and respiratory diseases by eleven years. to"! it is interestin! to note tat, accordin! to researc, tis as not been te case wit mental ealt problems s"c as depressiondepressio n- "c advances advances may be stim"lated stim"lated and accelerated accelerated by te "se of crowdso"rcin! crowdso"rcin! and 1CG   ttp=JJso"nd ttp =JJso"nds.bl." s.bl."k k 1CC 1CC asc asca a 2e 2ete ters rs,, ;Aa ;Aate teria riall 0ev 0evol ol"t "tio ion> n> 341 3411, 1, p.1F p.1FCC1C? isc" isc"ssed ssed by <en <en 8 8aber aber,, ;2eople ;2eople $naly $nalytics= tics= 6ow o ocial cial ensin! ensin! Tecni Tecni#"es #"es 8il 8illl T Transf ransform orm <"sines <"sinesss and 8at it Tells *s $bo"t te +"t"re of 8ork> 341:-. 1C9 $n e%amp e%ample le is tte e re resea searc rc ccarr arried ied o"t o"t by a /oint /oint st st"dy "dy betw between een y ydney dney *niver *niversity sity and te te Norwe Norwe!ia !ian n *niversity of cience and Tecnolo!y in 3449 wic fo"nd, for e%ample, an ab"ndance of teta waves in te front and middle parts of te brain as well as an ab"ndance of alpa waves in posterior parts of te brain.

 

  !amification, in e%amples s"c as te 344? +oldit wic "ses a !ame str"ct"re to elp predict  protein str"ct"res-, 2ylo, Aalariapot, ell lider, i)ee) or Nanooc. <iocemists at 8asin!ton *niversity "sed players of +oldit 1?4 to solve te problem of te intricate str"ct"re str"ct"re of te A72A@ retroviral protein, an en)yme tat plays an important role in te development of 6I@. ancer 0esearc *( ave developed a soot7'em7"p !ame called enes in pace wic a!ain elps to process !enetic data in a way tat saves scientists te ard"o"s #"antity of time tat it wo"ld take tem to$dvances do it temselves. in medicine may, terefore, e%tend lon!evity and e%acerbate an already well establised me!atrend – The )conomist note noted d in 3413 tat on a !lobal !lobal basis te pop"lati pop"lation on a!ed 1?1 over si%ty five is likely to ave more tan do"bled to 1GL by 34F4 . $ lon!7term sit"ation sit"ation in E"rope and &apan of lower tan replacement levels levels of fertility as led to te advent of te era of te M!rey dawn in te analysis of 2eter 2eterson 1999-. 7 a sit"ation tat is well embedded in a co"ntry s"c as 0"ssia wose wose pop"lation pop"lation levels levels ave been in overall overall decline decline since 199F. +red 2earce 2earce,, ;2eople#"ake> 3411- observes tat, wile it is not tr"e tat over alf of te people wo ave ever lived are alive today it is possible tat ;alf of all te people wo ave ever mana!ed to reac te a!e of GF are alive today.> today.> 6e s"!!ests tat we may even see te development of a different kind of era dominated to some de!ree by networks of !lobal elders. elders. $ similar similar proposition proposition is p"t forward in (en yctwald's yctwald's concept of a !lobal !lobal 'a!e wave'. 6e makes te observation observation tat for 99L of "man "man istory ist ory life e%pectan e%pectancy cy at birt was an avera!e avera!e of less less tan 1? years. years. Dver Dver te co"rse of te  previo"s millenni"m life e%pectancy rose from 3F years to C by te t"rn of te twentiet cent"ry and ten "p to C? by te dawn of tte e 31. Te ramifications ramifications of tis can!e are are not yet clear clear.. Aany concerns ave been raised abo"t te press"res on welfare and economic systems to provide for  people wo ave reaced retirement a!e and contin"e contin "e to live for lon!er and lon!er periods. per iods. Dn te oter and, as s"!!ested by <ernard 5ietaer, ;Te +"t"re of Aoney> 3441- tere may be a f"sion of te a!e wave and te information a!e wereby ;te incomin! (nowled!e ociety mi!t evolve into an era tat deserves deserves to be called called a 8isdom 8isdom $!e.> $!e.> It wo"ld certain certainly ly be wise to avoid te dystopian prospect envisa!ed in $ntony Trollope, ;Te +i%ed 2eriod> 1??3- were a 19?4s was conceived in wic people retired at te a!e of GC in order to "nder!o a year of contemplation wic wi c ended in e"tanis e"tanisati ation on by clorof cloroform orm.. eein! eein! elderly elderly people as a so"rce so"rce of wisdom wisdom and ideas rater tan a drain on society is certainly a prere#"isite of s"ccess over te fortcomin! decades and cent"ries. Te bo"ndaries bo"ndaries of o"r demo!rapy are, terefore, terefore, debatable. debatable. $t a certain point in istory istory tere will nat"rally be a n"merical peak in "man n"mbers, wic, for an inveterate !ambler, wo"ld  be a fascinatin! n"mber to attempt to estimate correctly. corre ctly. $n e%treme lon! term view tat mi!t or st mi!t not be rational in its optimism  or, alternatively, intelli!ent in its optimism1?3- mi!t pro/ect, say,, tens or "ndreds of billions dispersed across different parts of te "niverse, b"t makin! s"c a say  prediction is diffic"lt or close to impossible !iven te vast n"mbers of factors and feedback loops involved. In te view of 8olf!an! 8olf!an! 5"t) and 8 8arren arren anderson, anderson, ;Te End of 8orld 8orld 2op"lation 2op"lation rowt in te 31 ent"ry> 344- tis cent"ry is likely to witness a peak in te n"mber of people alive – and, ideally, in a manner tat is based on peacef"l and not artificial lowerin! of overall birt rates. In retrospect, it mi!t appear tat a civilisation across space was as inevitable a process as te "rbanisation of te "man species, ma!netised by everytin! from te !reater opport"nities of te con"rbation, &ane &acobs's idea of te attractions of 'sidewalk life' or te 'me!apolisomancy' of +rit) 5eiber.. "c developments 5eiber developments do not always look #"ite so inevitable inevitable at te time, owev owever er.. &on  &on  rimond, rimon d,  )conomist , Aay 344C, points o"t tat only :L of te world lived in cities in 1?44, a fi!"re tat, in 3449, reaced over F4Lst. In 19F4 only New York York and Tokyo Tokyo co"ld be classified as 1?4 1?1 st 1?3   st

Nobody Nobody as as yet synte syntesis sised ed +o +oldi lditt wit 8ill 8illiam iam < <"rr "rro"! o"!s sss fold fold7ins 7ins,, b"t it may may one one day a appe ppen. n.  )conomist , ;Ae!acan!e= Te world in 34F4> 3413ee ee A Aaatt 0i 0idl dley ey,, ;T ;Tee 0a 0ation tional al Dptim ptimis ist> t> 3 341 4111-.. ttp=JJteopti ttp=JJt eoptimist.com mist.com Edward Edward laese laeser, r, ;T ;Tri" ri"mp mp of te ity> ity> 34 341 11-. la laese eserr asse asserts rts ta tatt llivi ivin! n! in a ccity ity makes makes "s F4L mor moree

 

  me!acities me!aciti es or, or, alternat alternativel ively y, '"r '"rban ban a!!lomer a!!lomeratio ations' ns' or 'city 'city states' states'1?:-, i.e. i.e. a avi vin! n! ov over er 14 14m m inabitants. inabitant s. <y 343F tat tat fi!"re co"ld co"ld be :C, accordin! accordin! to te *N. Te rise of te me!acity me!acity as !one and7in7and wit tat of te 'instant city' s"c as $b" abi r Pen!)o". $s well as me!acities me!acities tere is also te rise of me!a7re!ions, for e%ample reater T Tokyo okyo and te <oston7New York78asin!ton corridor te top 4 me!a re!ions make "p a total of aro"nd 1?L of te world's pop"lation b"t are responsible for over GFL of its economic activity- 1?. Aeanwile accordin! to te inese $cad emy of ocial ciences' bl"e book 341:, FL it is pro/ected tat inese i nese "rbanisa "rba nisation tion will wil$cademy l reac G4L by 341? from c"rrent levels levreport els of in aro"nd Te *nited *nit ed 1?F  Nations' 2op"lation ivision estimates tat GCL of "manity will live in "rban areas by 34F4 . *rbanisation, like pop"lation, as e%ploded in a relatively sort period of time 1?G  and, wit te infl"ence of mass mi!ration and tecnolo!ical can!es and comm"nication revol"tions, in a sort space of time we ave seen te rise of te etero!eneo"s, pl"ralistic, m"ltic"lt"ral cosmopolis 1?C. In te 31 cent"ry and beyond te city mayor may prove to be one of te most pivotal political roles of all. Dn te oter and,as and,as sown in decentralised decentralised pro/ects pro/ects s"c as Aap (ibera (ibera were vol"nteers vol"nteers "sed andeld 2 "nits and te wiki DpentreetAap to create a detailed map of te most informal  part of Nairobi- tere are ways in wic crowdso"rcin! a"!ments te a"tocatalytic nat"re of te most vibrant citiesst. &"st as "rbanisation "rbanisation e%ploded e%ploded rapidly rapidly in a blink of an eye in deep istorica istoricall terms, space civilisation mi!t e%plode in scale and scope as well at some point in o"r f"t"re 1??. Te two may be intimately connected lon!7term developments and may sine a li!t on o"r "ltimate meanin! as a species, partic"larly !iven te $ristotelian idea tat te end of an entity e%plains te essence of it. It may also be te case tat te relatively recent spike in "rban pop"lations is merely te  prel"de to a f"rter sta!e of development of cities wic mean tat by te end of te twenty twent y first or twenty second cent"ry tey are f"ndamentally and #"alitatively different spaces and environments from teir nineteent nineteent or twentiet cent"ry cent"ry predecessors. Tis also may lead to transitions transitions in "man evol"tion, wit te e%pansion, for e%ample, of te "nbar n"mber and its e%tension beyond te  perceived 1F4 or so s o close clos e and stable relationsips tat can be maintained main tained at any an y partic"lar par tic"lar moment in time-. mart mart and intelli! intelli!ent ent cities cities and me!acitie me!acitiess may become become "bi#"it "bi#"ito"s o"s alon! te lines lines of models mod els s"c as on!do in o"t (orea. (orea. Tese Tese cities cities of intercon interconnect nected ed ne%"ses ne%"ses of data and information "sin! systems s"c as I<A's marter ities pro!ramme- may look on te s"rface  prod"ctive wic is te ;city's ed!e ed!e in prod"cin! ideas>. Tis is confirmed in te researc of eoffrey eoffrey 8est 8est at te anta +e Instit"te e%plorin! te e%istence of s"perlinear scalin! in metropolitan areas. $t tis sta!e of "rban evol"tion, tat does not necessarily e%tend to food prod"ction of co"rse, to"! s"c a disparity may conceivably overand time6oney, wit ,te rise ofential te 'r"rban' te "rban and r"ral. 1?: can!e parks 6oney ? E%pon E%ponentia l Trends Trendsmi% Tatbetween 8i 8ill ll ape ape 6"manity= 6"man ity=te ent"ry ent" ry of of t tee ity ity tate. tate. &ane &aco &acobs, bs, ;ities and te 8ealt 8ealt of Nations> 19?F- saw te city state as te basic drivin! "nit of economic development rater tan te nation7state. 1? +lorid +lorida, a, "lden "lden and Aella Aellande nder, r, ;Te ;Te 0ise 0ise of te Ae! Ae!aa 0e!i 0e!ion> on> 344C344C1?F 2..mi ..mit, t, ;i ;ity> ty> 34 341313- see seess ttis is fi! fi!"re "re as bein! bein! closer closer to CFL. CFL. 1?G Tomas Tomas 6 6ome omer7 r7i%o i%on, n, ;T ;Te e In! In!en" en"ity ity a ap> p> 3 3444 444-- makes makes te te observ observati ation on tat tat in 1?44 1?44 te avera avera!e !e perso person n met no more tan a few "ndred people in a lifetime wile at te t"rn of te 31 st cent"ry tat fi!"re ad risen to peraps "ndreds of to"sands of people. If one incl"des social interactions in cyberspace, tat n"mber is clea clearly rly si!nificantly lar!er. lar!er. 1?C 5eonie 5eonie an ander dercoc cock k and and 2eter 2eter 5 5yss yssiot iotis, is, ;o ;osmo smopol polis is III= I= Aon! Aon!rel rel it ities ies of te te 31 31 st ent"ry> 344:st TE <ooks, ; ;ity 3.4> 341:1?? $!ain $!ain,, predict predictin! in! precisely precisely wen s"c developme developments nts mi!t occ"r is a ! !reat reat callen!e. callen!e. 8e ma ma n not ot be be # #"ite "ite on track for te f"t"re envisa!ed by erard D'Neill, ;34?1= $ 6opef"l @ @iew iew of te 6"man +"t"re> 19?1- were e envisa!ed more $mericans livin! in space tan lived in te *$, b"t ten e%ponential can!es can appen in brief time periods wic can!e te tra/ectory of "man life in remarkable ways tat are diffic"lt to acc"rately predict in temporal terms. (evin (elly, ;8at T Tecnolo!y ecnolo!y 8ants> 8ants> 3411- disc"sses te incredible speed of diff"sion of 6omo apiens from a few tens of to"sands of individ"als in $frica to an estimated ei!t million aro"nd te world on te c"sp of te birt of a!ric"lt"re 14,444 years years a!o. 8at propelled tis transition, it is ar!"ed, ar!"ed, was te development F4,444 years a!o of te capacity for lan!"a!e, wic differentiated apiens from te Neandertals and oter ominins.

 

  completely different in te a!e of wat $nders orman7Nilsson describes as te 'di!ilo!"e', te f"sion and intermi%in! intermi%in! of te traditions traditions of an analo!"e world wit te mores and c"lt"res of a new di!ital one. Tey may evolve into ind"strial desi!ner Aatt &ones's idea of ;battle s"its for s"rvivin! te f"t"re>. Tey may ave radically different memories of temselves, wit an e%ample bein! te @enice Time Aacine pro/ect were te di!itisation of ?4 kilometres of books will lead to a istoricall and !eo!rapical sim"lation istorica sim"lation of te city of @enice @enice across a millenni"m. millenni"m. In te case of a city s"cofaste @enice, te interface te nat"ralnotes, and te artificial may indeedtecnolo!y be cr"cial to te s"rvival city itself= as 0acelof$rmstron! carbon7fi%in! protocell co"ld ;stop ;sto p te city... city...sink sinkin!. in!...by ..by !enerati !eneratin! n! a s"staina s"stainable ble,, artifici artificial al reef "nder "nder Sits Sits fo"ndat fo"ndations ions.> .> 1?9  imilar principles and enterprises mi!t save a lar!e n"mber of coastal cities from problems over te co"rse of decades. $rcolo!y, a portmantea" of arcaeolo!y and ecolo!y created by te arcitect 2aolo oleri, may become te norm. evelopments s"c as te learpoint T Tower ower in ri 5anka 5anka or Ailan's <osco @erticale or @ertical +orest- pro/ect in te 2orta N"ova Isola area wic is comprised of two towers able to accommodate ?4 bi! and medi"m si)e trees, 3F4 small si)e trees, 11444 !ro"ndcover  plants and F444 sr"bs te e#"ivalent of a ectare of forest- may become as "bi#"ito"s as te towerin! towerin ! "rban skylines tat were first created created in New York. York. $ll new "rban settlements settlements may be  planned specifically on a )ero )e ro carbon basis in te manner of Aasdar ity in $b" abi or on!tan on an island in te Yan!t)e Yan!t)e elta in ina described described by 6erbert irardet irardet as te 'world's first eco7 city'-. In fact, poto!raps poto!raps of ow cities were in te ind"strial era in te past two or tree "ndred years mi!t strike o"r descendents as bein! e%traordinarily den"ded and divorced from nat"re and nat"ral rytms and processes !iven te potential for a renaissance of "rban !reenin! tat wo"ld ave s"rpassed even te wildest ideas of Dctavia 6ill 7 one e%ample bein! te pro/ected self7 s"fficient s"ffic ient New York York of 314G by Terreform. Terreform. $noter e%ample e%ample is te oa 0*rbanism pro/ect in India, wic seeks an interpenetration of "rban areas by r"ralised developments s"c as rice  paddies, fis ponds and ve!etable !ardens 194. $lmost al alll cities may at some some point /oin /oin places s"c as Tallinn in Estonia or Templin, atea"ro"% and $"ba!ne in offerin! free transit to its pop"lation. ome cities tat were b"ilt for dependence on te car, s"c as Dklaoma ity, may reinvent temselv tem selves es as 'walkabl 'walkablee cities' cities'191  and, in doin! so, elp to avoid te concatenation of ealt  problems associated wit ,omo sedentarius193. Indeed, te ability to live witin ecolo!ical b"d!ets and limits may become a kind of bad!e of ono"r of every "rban settlement settlement in an a!e tat becomes yper7competitive on s"c a basis and people may !ravitate to cities based on statistical metrics tat rate te #"ality of life and contrib"tion to overall !lobal welfare in ever more n"anced and deep ways. 6opef"lly 6opef"l webetter will also avoid te "nfort"nate "nfor t"nate development developm entmoreover, of !ostr, cities, were wopef"lly ere irrational irrationa e%"berance !etslyte of sensible lon!7 lon!7term term plannin!. $nd, moreove we will opef" lly seel te ability to red"ce te n"mbers of empty and abandoned o"ses tat occ"r in devastatin! paral parallel lel wit omelessness and o"sin! insec"rity. +or now, on an ever more "rbanised pacesip Eart or peraps, if we follow <ill Ac(ibben, te planet Eaart-, te vast increase in "man n"mbers witin te time frame of only two cent"ries as occ"rred in parallel wit collapses in te n"mbers of species tat ave been caracterised as representin! a possible si%t mass e%tinction in te terminolo!y of 0icard 5eakey5ea key-,, followi followin! n! te Drdovician Drdovician,, evonian evonian,, 2ermia 2ermian, n, Triassi Triassicc and retaceo"s retaceo"s.. 2rior 2rior to te emer!ence of "manity, te e%tinction rate was abo"t one per million species per year, wile now it

1? 1?9 9 194 191 193

0ac 0acel el $rms $rmstr trin in!, !, Ne Ne%t %tNa Nat" t"re re.n .net et,, 341 3414 4 isc" isc"ssed ssed in 6erbert 6erbert irardet, irardet, ;it ;ities ies people people p planet lanet== liv liveabl eablee cities cities for a s"sta s"stainable inable world> world> 3 344, 44, p.3GFp.3GFTE <ooks, ;; ity 3.4> 341:<eyon <eyond d te #"est #"estion ion of of e ealt, alt, tere is also also te #"est #"estion ion o off te ma%imisati ma%imisation on of s"cc s"ccessf" essf"ll e%p e%perie erience= nce= Iain inclair's view is tat ;walkin! is te best way to e%plore and e%ploit te city>. Tis is not #"ite te same as 0on 6erron's concept of te '8alkin! ity' 19G-, fo co"rse, since tat t at involved b"ildin!s tat wo"ld be capable of walkin! by bein! propelled by insect7like robotic le!s.

 

  is one per to"sand per year 19:  2revio"s mass e%tinctions e%tinctions were were dominated dominated by "n"s"al events s"c as asteroids, ma/or volcanic er"ptions, ice a!es, possible !amma ray destr"ction of te o)one layer allowin! an ab"ndance of "ltraviolet "ltraviolet radiation19, or lar!e can!es can!es in ocean cemistry. cemistry. Te c"rrent mass e%tinction, owever, owever, as been te res"lt of te ine%orable ine%orable rise of "manity, "manity, partic"larly since we dispersed from $frica 144,444 years a!o – as Eli)abet (olbert, ;Te i%t E%tinction E%tinction>> 341 p"ts it, ;0i!t now we are decidin!, wito"t #"ite meanin! to, wic evol"tionary patways will remain open and wic will forever be closed>. It started d"rin! te animals 2leistocene wit temena!erie be!innin! of te decline of te mammalian me!afa"na, incl"din! many of te in "vier's of te disappeared s"c as mammots, mastodons and cave bears 19F. $ 344: st"dy eaded by <oris 8orm and 0ansom Ayers concl"ded tat 94L of all lar!e fis open ocean species incl"din! t"na, swordfis and marlin as well as lar!e !ro"ndfis s"c as cod, alib"t, skates and flo"nder- ad been depleted since te onset of ind"strialised ind"strialised fiseries fiseries aro"nd 19F4. E.D.8il E.D.8ilson, son, ;Te +"t"re of 5ife> 5ife> 3443- calc"lated tat, at te c"rrent rate of "man disr"ption of te biospere, one alf of Eart's i!er lifeforms lifeforms will be e%tinct by 3144. 3144. E%tinction, E%tinction, bein! a form of deat, is of co"rse co"rse a part of life. avid 0a"p, ;E%tinctio ;E%tinction n – <ad enes or <ad 5"ck> 1993, pp.:7pp.:7- ar!"ed tat te tere re ave  probably been somewere between five and fifty billion species in e%istence at some point in te  past, wit appro%imately appr o%imately 99.9L no lon!er e%istin!. 6owever, te c"rrent levels of e%tinction e%tin ction raise  profo"nd #"estions abo"t o"r relationsip to nat"re, o"r responsibilities, and wat patways we adopt from ere onwards. Tis, alon! wit te "nclear conse#"ences of climate can!e 19G  and te fears related to "nresolvable tippin! points19C- and te press"re on limited pysical reso"rces, are peraps te 19: 19: 19 19  19F 19G

t tan anley ley 0ice 0ice,, ;Enc ;Encyc yclo lope pedi diaa of Ev Evol ol"t "tio ion> n> 3 344 449, 9, p p.3 .3G1 G1-$s pr prop opos osed ed,, for for e%a e%amp mple le,, by $d $dri rian an Ae Aelo lott tt.. avid 0e)nick, 0e)nick, ;Te 'Dri!in' 'Dri!in' Te and and Now= Now= $n IInterpre nterpretative tative "ide to te te 'Dri!in 'Dri!in of pecies pecies'> '> 341 3411, 1, p.: p.:1414$ tro"blin! tro"blin! combination combination of aan n overall overall tra/ec tra/ectory tory o off te tempera mperat"re t"re and and sea sea le level vel rises on te te on onee and and and and !r !reater eater micro7e%tremities on te oter. In tis conte%t, $nnalee Newit) Newit) cites pro/ects s"c as te Dre!an tate Ts Ts"nami "nami 5ab or te * <erkeley Eart#"ake im"lator 5ab as bein! instr"mental in elpin! to model and "nderstand te matematics and pysics of nat"ral nat"ral disasters in order to minimise dama!e and increase resilience. Aeanwile or!anisations s"c as te * eolo!ical "rvey ave establised a Tw Twitter itter Eart#"ake etector to "se te wisdom of crowds to !ain information on eart#"akes. $ similar process is at work in te tanford *niversity B"ake7 atcer Network BN- wic a!ain "ses vol"nteers to elp cart f"t"re events. avid +einleib, ;<i! ata emystified> 341:- points o"t tat systems like te BN were once proibitively e%pensive b"t no lon!er are as a res"lt of te propa!ation of ;;low low cost sensor sensor networks tat are !ene !eneratin! ratin! vast #"antities #"antities of data>. data>. 8ere I  personally a Tomas Edison or $le%ander raam <ell type of mind, I wo"ld proba probably bly try to invent a mecanism of calmin! or miti!atin! nat"ral disasters, to"! I wo"ld of co"rse acknowled!e tat s"c an enterprise mi!t ave

te risk of of were makin!one tin!s worse and, moreover, I do notpro/ects ave tat I do not ave wic te first ideaoror inklin! wo"ld be!in tryin!. Teresince are several tattype aimofaattmind, s"c event"alities, may may not prove to be eiter practically or etically s"ccessf"l, s"c as te patents eld by Intellect"al @ @ent"res ent"res to miti!ate te impact of "rricanes. 6opef"lly, 6opef"lly, weter we aim to en!ineer climate or not, we ssall all avoid te kind of erratic seasons tat are te allmark of te planet (epler71:b, wic wobbles or processes- rater wildly on its spin a%is. 19C +or e%am e%ample ple iin n te ca case se of t tee r"n r"naway away ! !ree reeno no"se "se effec effectt involvi involvin! n! water water vapo" vapo"rr and carbo carbon n dio%id dio%idee on te  planet @en"s, @en"s, a vision of &osep +o"rier's !ree !reeno"se no"se effect writ lar!e. +ears over tis, and oter problems, led Aartin 0ees, ;D"r +inal ent"ry= 8ill te 6"man 0ace "rvive te Twenty7+irst Twenty7+irst ent"ryO> 344:- to te  pessimistic concl"sion tat tat "manity faces a F47F4 cance of s"rviva s"rvivall by 3144, a variant in some ways on te oomsday ar!"ment created created by astropysicist <randon arter in 19?:. Tose of a !amblin! nat"re mi!t like to enter te fray on s"c predictions at  at ttp=JJwww.lon!bets.or!. ttp=JJwww.lon!bets.or!.   live 6amilton, a"tor of a re#"iem for o"r species, species, s"!!ests tat by 34F4 a can!ed climate mi!t lead to an $"stralia tat is not ;reco!nisably $"stralian>. Aeanwile $lan 8eisman, 8eisman, ;Te 8orld 8ito"t 8ito"t *s> 344C- provides "s wit te to"!t e%periment of ima!inin! tis planet wito"t o"r pervasive presence tat as been an ever acceleratin! allmark of te $ntropocene. $ similar concern over s"stainability vers"s collapse feat"res in te work of &osep Tainter, wose analysis of te collapse of civilisations is based in lar!e part on teir inability at times of collapse to s"stain te level of comple%ity tey ave arrived at. D"r civilisations ave become ve very ry comple%, and are dependent on lar! lar!ee amo"nts of ener!y to s"stain tat comple%ity. comple%ity. Tis is te so"rce of pessimism abo"t civilisational collapse in some #"arters, s"c as erek &ensen, ;End!ame> 344G-. Te centrality of a clean, s"stainable and renewable renewable ener!y revol"tion is, terefore, once a!ain "navoidable. $!ain we face te #"estion of livin! at a time of transition and forkin! pats to

 

  !reatest factors tat co"ld lead to a pessimistic perspective and narrative abo"t o"r sit"ation today and in te f"t"re. To "se Aalcolm ladwell's lan!"a!e, tis concatenation of factors is, in a sense, te oliat tat faces "s all in te early part of te twenty first cent"ry. cent"ry. $t teir most e%treme, e%treme, te  pro!nostications tat arise from tese views of te reality of o"r sit"ation ave a tendency to descend into an apocalyptic vision tat is tr"ly ni!tmaris ni!tmaris 19? 7 a kind of Easter Island c"lt"ral and ecolo!ical collapse writ lar!e. Ne!ative narratives may also be sed"ctive and addictive to an e%tent 199

 – not want imp"lses to be toldand tatte everytin! e verytin! ac !oin! to be D(  . Indeed, it may  bepeople te case casdo e tat t at always millenarian mille narian creation c reation is ofact"ally apocalyptic apt"ally ocalyptic narratives cl"ster on arbitrary calendar landmarks landmarks s"c as te birt of a new millenni"m millenni"m in a way tat is entirely irrational and in no way connect connected ed to empir empiric ical al realit realities ies.. Tis Tis is, is, no do"bt, do"bt, e%acer e%acerbat bated ed wen wen a pr probl oblem em is antropo!enetic – it leads to inevitable feelin!s of !"ilt over te role tat mankind as played in can!in! can !in! te nat"re nat"re of life life on Eart. Eart. 6ere &on &on Aicael Aicael reer's reer's insi!t is importan importantt tat te apocalyptic narrative is in many ways an inversion or flip7side of te !rand narrative of "niform and "bi#"ito"s "man pro!ress, partic"larly since te inception of te vast can!es to nat"re and society implicit in te Ind"strial 0evol"tion 344, crystallised o"t of te ideas of !ro"ps s"c as te 5"nar ociety from te 1CG4s onwards. It is easy for tose wo ave essentially lost fait in a narrative of pro!ress or, indeed, "man e%ceptionalism341 to overt"rn te narrative and see "man istory as a vast process of destr"ction destr"cti on rater tan creation, partic"larly if te relationsip between "manity "manity and te rest of te nat"ral world is seen as a )ero7s"m !ame !ame were te rise of te first side of te e#"ation involves involves te deat and decline of te oter 343. It is, moreover, moreover, self7evide self7evident nt to many people tat tat stewardsip stewardsip of te nat"ral world is implicitly one of te vocations or tasks of mankind !iven o"r dominant position in tat world in a relatively relatively recent istorical period – te era of te $ntropocene, $ntropocene, and an era were we may ave already "sered in a state sift from one !eolo!ical pase to anoter 34:. 8atever o"r failin!s at it, and weter or not every person is capable of it, te fact tat we can become concio"s of s"c a vocation can be seen as evidence tat it is part of te very conscio"sness of wat it is to be very different f"t"res= &ames Aartin, ;Te Aeanin! of te 31st ent"ry> 344G- s"!!ests tat ;tis co"ld be "manity's last cent"ry, or it co"ld be te cent"ry in wic civili)ation sets sail toward a far more spectac"lar f"t"re.> 19? Dne wonde wonders rs sometim sometimes es iiff proponen proponents ts of te most apoca apocalyptic lyptic narratives narratives fall into te te trap trap of of seein! seein! "mani "manity ty itself as a kind of nat"ral disaster, to borrow te title of a novel by Nerys 2arry. 2arry. 199 $s te te work work by roni ronicle cle < <ook ookss 34113411- p"ts p"ts it= ;D ;Dpti ptimis mism m is "nd "nderr errate ated.. d...Dn .Dnee of te m mill illion ion tin! tin!ss tat tat art can do...is to break te cycle of o"r days, p"ll "s from te fo! of o"r own minds, force "s to look and see and tink 344 anew.> &on &on Aaynar Aaynard d (ey (eynes nes,, ;Essay ;Essayss in 2er 2ers"a s"asio sion> n> 19:1 19:1-- wrote wrote tat tat from te te perio period d were were we first first ave ave w writ ritten ten records, ;back, say, to two to"sand years before rist – down to te be!innin! of te ei!teent cent"ry – tere was no very !reat can!e in te standard of life of te avera!e man livin! in te civilised centres of te eart.> 341 $s rreporte eported d by Aatt 0idley, 0idley, te psycolo! psycolo!ist ist aniel aniel ilbe ilbert rt /okes /okes tat every member member of is profession profession lives "nder te obli!ation at some point to say ;Te "man bein! is te only animal tat...> tat...>.. D"r sense of e%ceptionalism at o"r acievements can lead to narratives of positivity and optimismH a sense tat "manity as been destr"ctive wit te biospere can lead to inverted narratives tat are despairin!, cynical and pessimistic. $cknowled!in! dama!e is important, b"t s"cc"mbin! to a self7atin! tendency towards te latter is to be avoided. $t te same time, we ave to reco!nise tat tere are ways in wic o"r "ni#"e intelli!ence as "man bein!s peraps mirrors oter forms of deep intelli!ence in te nat"ral world. $s an e%ample, researc by Tos"yiki Tos"yiki Naka!aki in 3444  Physarum polycepahlum fo"nd tat 'even' te slime mo"ld may be capable capable of intelli!ent coice7makin!. coice7makin!. In te li!t of a 344F e%periment and te lar!e n"mber of yperinflations and c"rrency r"ns, deval"ations and collapses in o"r monetary istory, it mi!t even t"rn o"t one day tat a species s"c as te ap"cin monkey  Cebus capucinusis better wit money tan we are. 343 Aark 5y 5ynas, nas, ;Te od pecies> pecies> 34113411- points points o"t tat tat one si!n of te te do dominan minance ce of of "manity "manity,, at least on eart, in te $ntropocene is tat somewere between a #"arter and a tird of te entire planetary 'net primary  prod"ctivity' everytin! prod"ced by plants "sin! te te power of te s"n- is now dedicated to s"stainin! "s "s as a species. 34: Tis was te view view e%pres e%pressed sed by $ntony $ntony <arnofs <arnofsky ky of te * *nivers niversity ity of of aliforn alifornia, ia, <erkeley <erkeley,, and is team in te r"n7"p to te *N 0ioV34 onference in 3413.

 

  "man. $ !reat !reat deal of weter we so"ld be celebratin! or not on New Year's Year's ay 3144 depends "pon te de!ree to wic we "se o"r intelli!ence to f"lfill tat role of biopiliac biopiliac stewardsip in te 34 remainder of te cent"ry , and ow well we ne!otiate te comple% balance between te dicotomy of man and nat"re, as described by eor!e 2erkins Aars in 1?G, witin a olistic and wole7eart conscio"sness 34F and a framework driven by wat $nders Edwards refers to as te 's"stainability revol"tion''34G. "c respons revol"tion responsibil ibilisat isation ion to "se Tomas Tomas )as)'s )as)'s word- is peraps peraps part of te very nat"re of "manity's "mani rise lives prominence promin tis ,planet over w teatpast 344 344,444 ,444we years. 8at5oadin! narrative narrativea we create for o"rty's f"t"re litoves will, ence to anon e%tent, e%tent determine wat o"tcomes acieve. acieve. narrative for o"rselves is rater akin to loadin! software, wit depressin! and cynical narratives  bein! te e#"ivalent e#"ivalen t of malware34C. It may or may not be te case tat we need !rand narratives – s"c as te idea of istory as a  process of pro!ress – rater tan te postmodernist fra!mentation and fract"rin! of narratives. $nnalee Newit) Newit) p"ts forward te idea tat o"r narratives f"nction f"nction in a similar way to te mi!ration mi!ration maps tat !rey wales pass down to teir descendants wic elp orient tem and provide tem wit potential patways to follow in order to attain more s"ccessf"l lon!7term o"tcomes in terms of s"rvival and flo"risin!. flo"risin!. In partic"lar, partic"lar, Neal tepenson s"!!ests s"!!ests tat te world of science fiction  provides a kind of iero!lypic reso"rce from wic we can constr"ct narratives of f"t"re events and developments. developments. Dnce a!ain we m"st m"st not be blind to te problem problemss tat we face, or te scale of tem. 6owever, 6owever, it is also te case tat we can sometimes sometimes make predictions predictions abo"t f"t"re problems problems  /"st on te c"sp of tecnolo!ical or c"lt"ral developments tat solve tem in ways tat we do not anticipate. $s an e%ample, anticipate. e%ample, an article article in The Times in 1?9 s"!!ested tat every street in 5ondon wo"ld wo"l d soon be b"ried b"ried "nder orse man"re. man"re. In te event, (arl (arl <en)'s inve inventio ntion n of te orseless orseless carria!e in ermany ermany altered te topo!rapy of te f"t"re f"t"re and can!ed te problem entirely entirely.. <en) imself te "nderestimated "nderestimated te commercial commercial attractiveness attractiveness of te a"tomobile, believin! believin! it wo"ld not 34? rise above one million million on te mistaken ass"mption  tat tere wo"ld not be eno"! ca"ffe"rs349.. It may be te case tat o"r two most pressin! f"t"re patways – overcomin! environmental crisis on o"r planet and ens"rin! te resilience of o"r civilisation on te one and, and layin! te fo"ndations for a space civilisation on te oter, are on te brink of advances and pro!ressions tat are e%ponential in nat"re and wic will lead to profo"ndly different worlds and paradi!ms 314. $s disc"ssed in ;6yper 5iteracy in te E%ponential E%ponential Epoc>, peraps te !reatest advanta!e in te contemporary world in terms of te #"estion of biodiversity is te e%ponential ability for "s to 34

E.D.8 E.D.8ilson, ilson, ;<iopilia ;<iopilia>> 19?19?- p"t p"t forward forward te vision te "man tendency tendency to to relate relate to nat"ra nat"rall processe processess is an

e%pression of a biolo!ical need tat need is inte!ral199F-. to o"r pysical and mental !rowt. !rowt. Tis is e%plored f"rter in tepen (ellert, ;Te <iopilia 6ypotesis> 34F tewar tewartt <rand <rand,, ;8 ;8ol olee eart eart d disc iscipli ipline= ne= an eecop copra! ra!mat matist ist man manife ifesto sto>> 344 3449934G $fter all, !iven te ee%traor %traordinary dinary conca concatena tenation tion of factors factors and feedback feedback loops tat ave led to to life life on o"r plane planett in te first place, we may not !et a second cance at Eden, to borrow te title of a book by 2eter 6amilton. 34C If we follow follow te te ar ar!"m !"ment ent of of risto ristope perr <oo <ooker ker,, ;Te eve even n <asic <asic 2lots> 2lots> 344 344- ten ten tere tere is a !ener !eneral al "nderlyin! str"ct"re to narratives actin! as teir scaffoldin! or skeleton "pon wic we layer details. 8e mi!t be wise to coose narratives for te story of "man istory tat do not fall into te tra!ic cate!ory, for e%ample.  Narratives of dystopias are also "sef"l "sef"l warnin!s, b"t not recipes or instr"ction ma man"als. n"als. $noter interestin! view ere is tat of @ladimir 2opp wo analysed 0"ssian folktales and divided tem "p into :1 elements. 34? $s d disc"s isc"ssed sed earlie earlier, r, it is is ve very ry ea easy sy to point o"t o oters ters'' predictive predictive errors and far far a arder rder to pr predict edict acc"rately acc"rately oneself, b"t <en)'s view was similar to some of te predictions of tinkers at te ica!o 8orld +air in 1?9: – one of te few areas tey did !et ri!t was te "bi#"ity of te telepone, to"! tey perceived it wo"ld only be in every city rater tan almost every ome. 349 isc" isc"ssed ssed in 0icar 0icard d 8atso 8atson n an and d Dliver Dliver +reema +reeman, n, ;+"t"re ;+"t"revision vision== cenarios cenarios for te te 8orld in 3 344> 44> 341:, p.:314 $!ain, $!ain, ere, ere, t tee #"e #"esti stion on of pre predic diction tion is is not eeasy asy== it was ea easy sy in inds indsi! i!tt to see tte e prevale prevalence nce of of te a"tomobile b"t not at te time. $s mentioned before, te idea of 2redictipoints wo"ld elp in te #"antification of  predictions of te f"t"re. ome of tese mi!t prove false, s"c as as te idea of "bi#"ito"s space fli!t or space to"rismH oters mi!t simply be a little far aead aead of teir time. In te case of avid $sford, ;pacefli!t Aan"al= 6ow Yo" Yo" o"ld <e a To"rist in pace 8itin Twe Twenty nty Years> Years> 1994- te timin! was not #"ite ri!t b"t te lon!7term  prediction mi!t be. $sford is now te mana!in! director of <ristol pac paceplanes. eplanes.

 

  sare information on precisely ow many n"mbers tere are of partic"lar species of flora and fa"na. Tis is a totally different world in tat respect from te milie" in wic a biolo!ist s"c as $rcie arr wrote ;6andbook of T"rtles> on sea t"rtles in 19F3, wic, alon! wit te rest of is work, was an important factor in te lon!7s"rvival of Testudo mydas311. 8e can, if we coose, "se te clicks of o"r mo"se to s"pport te clicks of te sperm wale I*N stat"s= @*- and, a!ain, if we coose to create it, we face te potential of a new 5innaean or +abrici"s7ian- a!e of ta%onomy 313   partic"larly driven by widespread access to o"t reso"rces as Aorpobank. 0icard in The Smithsonian , &"ly7$"!"st 3414, pointed pointed tat wes"c are livin! in a period tat some onniff nat"ralists are callin! ;a new a!e of discovery> wit te n"mber of species bein! discovered today comparin! favo"rably to any time since te mid71C44s31:. &anine <eny"s asserst tat o"r knowled!e of biolo!y is do"blin! every five five years. Tere is certainly certainly a vast frontier frontier of knowled!e to e%plore, e%plore, since it is estimated tat tere are between 14 million and F4 million animal and plant species in te world, wilst so far we ave described sometin! sometin! in te order of 1.9 million. $ppro%imately $ppro%imately 34,444 new species are discovered eac year, wit some of te most intri!"in! bein! e%tremopiles or creat"res tat can s"rvive at e%tremes of eat or cold or end"re radiation 31. $lto"! $lto"!  it is often often rater rater cas"ally ass"med tat we ave now mapped o"t essentially all te forms of life on tis planet, we may yet see sifts and advances of te ilk of $ntoine van 5ee"wenoek's discovery of micro7 or!anisms in 1GCF as a res"lt of te microscope revol"tion and we may see o"r "nderstandin! of life e%panded beyond its establised dimensions. avid T Toomey oomey,, ;8eird ;8eird 5ife> 341:- disc"sses te searc for forms of life tat may be very different from tose we ave traditionally "nderstood everywere from possible Aartian permafrost to te ammonia oceans of &"piter's moons or te cr"sts of ne"tron stars. Tis e%pansion of "nderstandin! and ab"ndance of new ideas and information r"ns in  parallel wit developments in te spere of nat"ral istory 31F,  wit a new dinosa"r species bein! named every 1.F weeks 31G and a so"rce s"c as te 2aleobiolo!y atabase actin! as a vast arcive and treas"re treas"re trove trove31C. New specie speciess of livin! livin! creat"r creat"res es are even even be bein! in! discov discovere ered d in entire entire !e !eo! o!ra rap pic ical al ar area eass t tat at were were pr prev evio io"s "sly ly "n "nkn know own n – an e%am e%ampl plee be bein in! ! Ao"n Ao"ntt Aab" Aab" in Ao)ambi#"e, wic was known only to locals before bein! discovered via oo!le Aaps in 344F. ince 344F, scientists at (ew ardens ave identified 13G species of bird and 3F4 species of  b"tterfly on Aab"31?.   2ro/ects 2ro/ects s"c as allica, $nimal<ase, $nimal<ase, te Encyclopedia Encyclopedia of 5ife, te ens"s ens"s 311 311

ee ffor or ins instan tance ce +rede +rederic rick k avis, avis, ;Te ;Te Aan Aan 8o ave aved d ea T"rt T"rtles les== $rci $rciee arr arr and te te Dri!ins Dri!ins of onservation> 344C313 $ndrew $ndrew 2 2ola olas)e s)ek, k, ;y ;yste stema ma Nat"ra Nat"raee 3F4 – te te 5inna 5innaea ean n$ $rk> rk> 341 3414-. 4-. $lso $lso tere tere are are many many insi! insi!ts ts in into to te te oft cyberta%onomy cane yberta%onomy in B"entin ;Te New Ta%onomy> Ta 31: world &"st &"s anecdo cdotal tally ly,, on te very day8eeler, ttat at I wrot wrote e tis ti s te tere re %onomy> was was news news344?-. anno"n anno"nced ced tat tat te te sea sea sn snail ail /olutopsius  scotiae and te clam Thyasira scotiae ad been discovered in deep water water off cotland. $s I kept on writin! tey kept on comin!= on &an"ary 341 a team from Dio tate led by Aaryme!an aly declared tat a new species of anemone  )dwardsiella  )dwardsiella andrillae- ad been discovered discovered in $ntarctica. Dn 19t &an"ary 341 a team led by &iri Aoravec declared in a paper in te /o"rnal 0oo 1eys tat a new species of red toad, 2hinella yun.a, ad been discovered in te 2er"vian $ndes. $ndes. In 341 researcers discovered a new species of river dolpin in <ra)il, te  Ara.uaina boto, te first s"c findin! since te Chinese bai3i in 191? wic went e%tinct in 344G-. I co"ld !o on listin! e%amples over time, b"t !iven tat tey are bein! listed at /o"rnals and social networkin! sites, s"c an enterprise does not seem profitable. 31 $n e%amp e%ample le be bein! in! t tee 341 341: : disc discove overy ry of bac bacter teria ia ta tatt were llivi ivin! n! "nder "nder t tee ice in $ntarc $ntarctic ticaa or microb microbial ial life life forms in te Aariana Trenc, te deepst spot on Eart. 31F In 341: 341: it was report reported ed tat tat researc researcer erss at te Dld  omi ominio nion n *niv *nivers ersity ity in @ir! @ir!ini iniaa ad discov discovere ered d fossil fossil remains of sin!le cell microbes in sandstone rock in western $"stralia tat may be te oldest ever fo"nd, wit an a!e of nearly :.F billion years. 31 31G G 0ic 0icar ard d <"t <"tle lerr, te teco conv nver ersa sati tion on.c .com om,, :rd &an"ary 341. 31C D"r "nde "nderst rstand andin! in! of eevol vol"ti "tion on is of cco"r o"rse se impro improvin vin! ! mar marked kedly ly and and rapidly rapidly== in 344: 344:,, for insta instance nce,, remains remains from wat is believed to be te oldest primate tat lived FF million years a!o, te  Archicebus achilles, were discovered. Te ve%ed #"estion of a 'missin! link' between between primates and "mans may or may n not ot ave been solved  by te discovery of remains of a C million year year old primate, 'arwinius massillae, in 3449. rd 31 31? ? <re rend ndaan D' D'o onn nnor or,, Te Te aily aily ot, ot, :  &an"ary 341.

 

  of Aarine 5ife, te International <arcode of 5ife 2ro/ect, 8ikispecies, te Tree of 5ife web pro/ect, te pecies $nalyst 2ro/ect, <irdo"rce 319, $nt8eb334, te lobal <iodiversity Information +acility, +acility, &oel atore's <iodiversity portrait pro/ect and te <iodiversity 6erita!e 5ibrary e%pand tat new frontier in o"r "nderstandin!, knowled!e, classification and potential stewardsip of te nat"ral world. In doin! so, we can add to te list of s"ccess s"ccessf"l f"l conservation conservation efforts and salva!ed salva!ed species s"c as te dwarf fo% tat resides on alifornia's annel Islands wic came back from te brink of e%tinction in te mid 1994s and as prospered since. Te nat"ral world is one frontier in tis new 'a!e of discovery' 331, /"st as te o"ter world of te "niverse is anoter anoter frontier. frontier. It may be te case tat we discover discover fascinatin! fascinatin! interconnectio interconnections ns 333  between te world beyond Eart and life "pon it   7 for e%ample between solar cycles and (ondratiev waves or te movement of stock markets 33:  as well as, of co"rse, te relationsip  between solar cycles and lon! term eartly climactic can!es- 33. D"r knowled!e knowled!e as as "nder!one "nder!one 33F vast increases in a very sort space of istorical time H it was only in te 1934s, for e%ample, tat Edwin 6"bble "sed epeid variable variable stars to calc"late te distance of te $ndromeda $ndromeda neb"la as it was ten known- from Eart and so proved tat it was a separate !ala%y and not part of te Ailky 8ay. ay. 0ecently, 0ecently, in 1993, te first e%oplanet was discovered discovered orbitin! a p"lsar- and in 199F te first e%oplane e%op lanett orbitin! orbitin! a star like te s"n was discovered discovered F1 2e!asi-. 2e!asi-. $t te time of writin!, writin!, 14FG 33G e%oplanets in ?43 planetary systems ave been "nearted . Aeanwile Aeanwile in te te 3444s tere tere was a raft of important discoveries discoveries s"c as te dwarf planets planets Eris, Aakemake Aakemake and 6a"mea. 8e ave a vast amo"nt of f"rter work to do in tis spere, since tere are at least 144 billion planets in te Ailky 8ay wit at least one planet per star and te possibility of trillions of 'ro!"e planets' wic are not bo"nd to any star 33C. $ccordin $ccordin! ! to 2eti!"ra, 2eti!"ra, 6oward 6oward and Aarcy, Aarcy, ;2revalence ;2revalence of Eart7si)e Eart7si)e  planets orbitin! "n7like stars> 341:-, it is estimated tat 33L 3 3L of s"n7like stars arbo"r  arbo"r Eart7like  planets orbitin! in teir abitable )ones. In te Ailky 8ay alone tere may be at least ?.? billion Eart7l Eart 7like ike planets. planets. <eyond <eyond o"r !ala%y !ala%y,, tere tere is a !reat !reat deal more to discover discover== te $ndrom $ndromeda eda ala%y as an estimated 1 trillion stars and tere are oter !ala%ies wic by temselves are far lar!er tan te :4 !ala%ies tat comprise o"r local cl"ster cl"ster of !ala%ies – for e%ample I 1141 wic is estimated estimated to ave 144 trillion trillion stars. stars. Tere Tere may in fact be at least F44 billion billion !ala%ies !ala%ies in te "niverse and te possibility of at least 14 trillion Eart7like planets in te observable "niverse as a wole33?. D"r ori)ons are constantly bein! e%panded ere, wit te discovery in Dctober 341:, for e%ample, of )?XNXF39G )?XNXF39G wic is te most distant !ala%y yet "ncovered at a distance of aro"nd 319 334 33 331 1

&ames &ames 5 5evi evitt, tt, ;;on onser servat vation ion iin n te Inte Interne rnett $!e= $!e= T Trea reats ts and and Dpp Dpport ort"ni "nitie ties> s> 3443 3443,, p.F-

Aar 0ap 0ervi apael aelwit aand nd 0a A Aoli onser servat vation ion of of 0ar 0are e or 5i 5ittl ttle7( e7(now nown pecies pec > 344C, 34 p p.CG .CG-- we c"rrently IAartin n an antinint inter view ew wi t 0andy te tendy << <<  olina, o on nna, 1:t;;on  Aay 341:, &.rai! @e @enter nter ar!"ed tatnin te t eies> field of4C, !enetics know abo"t 1L of wat we will "tlimately know. 333 $n in intere terestin! stin! e%amp e%ample le is te disco discovery very by te Ice Ne"tr Ne"trino ino Dbserva Dbservatory tory of two two ne"trino ne"trino effects effects tat tat ori!ina ori!inated ted from beyond te solar system, s ystem, te first definitive detections since 19?C, as reported by Nola Taylor 0edd, pace.com, ec 3?t 341:. onnections between life on Eart and and wat appens in te "niverse may be aan n aware were o"r "nderstandin! is c"rrently at te e#"ivalent of baby steps. 33: ee, ee, for ins instanc tance, e, te te work o off &on 6 6amp ampson son.. "perco "percomp" mp"ter terss ave bee been n "sed "sed wit inte interes restin tin! ! res"lts res"lts iin n te cartin! of solar flares and solar storms s"c as te 1?F9 arrin!ton effect in order to discover weter or not tey ave discernable patterns in terms terms of fre#"ency and distrib"tion. Tey ave also been "sed in inte interestin! restin! ways by  people s"c as Tim Tim 2almer of D%ford *niversity wo is "sin! tem to p"s forward forward stocastic modellin! of comple% and non7linear systems s"c as climate. 33 +ri +rit) t) @aren arenolt olt and ebast ebastian ian 5"n 5"nin! in!,, ;;Te Te Ne!lec Ne!lected ted "n "n>> 341 341::33 33F F It iiss no not at at all all lo lon! n! a! a!o o ta tatt te te 1Ct cent"ry arcbisop &ames *sser, before arles 5yell or &ames 6"tton, came "p wit is <ible7based calc"lation tat te eart was created in 44 < so a!ain o"r knowled!e as e%panded radically in only a few cent"ries. Tis is disc"ssed in &on T"rney T"rney,, ;Te 0o"! "ide to te +"t"re> 3414-. 8ere we mi!t be in tree or fo"r or five cent"ries' cent"ries' time is probably far beyond my ima!ination. 33G $s an e%am e%ample ple o off te pace pace of can! can!ee ere ere,, in +ebr"a +ebr"ary ry 341 341  it was was anno"n anno"nced ced tat tat analy analysis sis of of (epler (epler data data ad ad "nearted C1F new e%oplanets orbitin! :4F stars. 33C   << 341:. 33? 0T, ;'old ;'oldilo ilocks cks  ala ala%y' %y'== cienti cientists sts esti estimat matee ?.? billi billion on pl plane anets ts '/"st '/"st ri!t ri!t'' for li life, fe, Ft November 341:

 

  1:.1 billion li!t years from Eart- 339. Tis constant e%pansion of o"r ori)ons raises profo"nd #"estions, and callen!es in terms of discovery, over te possibility of oter forms of life in te "niverse wic stim"late "s to e%plore even f"rter tan te int"itions of ristian 6"y!ens and to test te view propo"nded by Tales of Ailet"s and is followers tat te "niverse is teemin! wit e%traterrestrial life . +"rtermore, it was was only in 19C4, tro"! te work of te astronomer @era 0"bin, tat we discovered te concept and "niverse  e%istence of dark wic is to"!t make -."p 0esearc sometin! tefield orderofofdark 3GLmatter of te and "niverse wit G?.:L of itmatter, bein! composed bein! of darktomatter-. matter 0esearc  ininte dark   ener!y may ave profo"nd profo"nd ramifications ramifications for o"r man"fact"rin! man"fact"rin! and enterprises. $noter area of !rowin! knowled!e is tat of ne"tinos, wit information on i!7ener!y ne"trinos from beyond o"r solar system beyond a #"adrillion electron volts- bein! assessed at te Ice"be laboratory in $ntarctica wic was completed in 3414- 3:4. Te first first batc batc of informatio information n on tese was only syntesised syntesis ed in 19?C. 19?C. Te pace pace of can!e can!e is e%traordina e%traordinary ry.. 8en te loan i!ital i!ital ky ky "rvey  be!an in 3444, 3444 , its telescope in New Ae%ico collected more mor e data in its first firs t few weeks tan ad a d been amassed in te entire istory istory of astronomy. astronomy. <y 3414 its arcive was filled filled wit 14 terabytes terabytes of information. 6owever, wen a s"ccessor, te 5ar!e ynoptic "rvey Telescope Telescope in ile, comes on 3:1 stream in 341G it will ac#"ire tat vol"me of data every five days . 8en te te radio telescope te #"are (ilometre $rray comes is completed in 341G it will collect twice as m"c information every day as is !enerated on te entire web, and it will s"rvey te sky somewere in te order of ten to"sand times faster tan ever before. evelopments in te field ave also been accelerated by crowdso"rcin! pro/ects s"c as ala%y Poo, r"n by Pooniverse3:3 were members of te p"blic ave been invited to contrib"te to te morpolo!ical classification of lar!e n"mbers of !ala%ies wic as also been responsible for te el"cidation of new !ala%ies called '!reen pea !ala%ies' were stars are formin! faster tan at almost any oter point in te "niverse, and as discovered wat is believed to be te first ever e%ample of a #"asar mirror, an enormo"s clo"d of !as tens of to"sands of li!t years in diameter tat is eated by li!t from a nearby #"asar- 3::.  Tis is similar similar to te N$$ N$$ lickworke lickworkers rs pro/ect were several vol"nteers vol"nteers were enlisted enlisted to identify craters in Aars ima!es. $noter way te field as opened "p is te pro/ect by *win!" to crowdso"rce a citi)en's map of te previo"sly F44,444 "nnamed craters on Aars and also to provide a database of names for e%oplanets "sin! a votin! system to meas"re overall pop"larity once a name attains 1,444 votes, te person wo proposed it can coose wic e%oplanet tey want it to be attaced to-. D"r searc for life elsewere in te "niverse, or at least for te potential fo"ndations to s"pp s" ppor ortt it s s"c "c as t te pr pres esen ence cebein! of wate wa r in li li#" #"id id form rm- is also also pace "n "nde derr$!ency's !o !oin in! ! a pr prof ofo" o"nd nd transformation – wit ane e%ample teterdiscovery by fo te E"ropean 6erscel pace Dbservatory in &an"ary 341 tat te dwarf planet eres as two so"rces of water vapo"r spewin! abo"t si% kilo!rams of water per second, te discovery by N$$'s assini in 3413 of a likely "nder!ro"nd water ocean on at"rn's lar!est moon Titan, or te discovery in 3411 by N$$'s Aars 0over tat tere was evidence of an ancient flow of water on te planet's Endeavo"r crater wit te likeliood of te water activity on Aars bein! condensed into te first billion years of te  planet's istory-. $!ain and a!ain o"r period is one of te e%tension of o"r knowled!e and te 339   ttp=JJwww.bbc.co."k ttp=J Jwww.bbc.co."kJscienc JscienceJspaceJ" eJspaceJ"nivers niverseJsi!ts eJsi!tsJ!ala%i J!ala%ies es observes tat tis !ala%y appears to "s ow it was only C44 million years after te <i! <an!, wen te "niverse was only FL of its c"rrent a!e of 1:.? billion years. It prod"ces stars at te penomenal rate of aro"nd :44 s"ns per year in mass and as a redsift of C.F1. 3:4 $lan <oyle, N< News, 31st November 341:. 3:1 @iktor Aayer7c Aayer7conber onber!er !er and and (ennet (ennet "kier, "kier, ;<i! ata= $ 0evol"tion 0evol"tion Tat 8i 8ill ll Transfo Transform rm 6ow 8e 5iv 5ive, e, 8ork and Tink> 341:, p.C3:3 In &a &an"ary n"ary 341 te Poonive Pooniverse rse team ad /"st passed passed 14,444 14,444 clas classifica sifications tions on aanote noterr pro/ect, pro/ect, tat of c"ratin! c"ratin! and arcivin! diaries of soldiers from te +irst 8orld 8ar. 8ar. In te same mont te ala%y Poo pro/ect reaced a spike of 1,444,444 classifications per o"r. 3:: isc"s isc"ssed sed by A Aic icael ael Niel Nielsen sen,, ;0einv ;0einvent entin! in! i isco scovery very== Te New New Era of Ne Netwo tworke rked d ci cienc ence> e> 3414 3414--

 

   p"sin! back of frontiers= in 341 a team at te $"stralian National *niversity claimed to ave discovered te oldest star yet fo"nd, wit an a!e of aro"nd 1:.G billion years old /"st a few "ndred million after after te <i! <an!-. &"st as 8 8illiam illiam &ames &ames s"!!ested s"!!ested tat we live in a m"ltiverse m"ltiverse rater tan a "niverse, peraps – !iven o"r ever increasin! "nderstandi "nderstandin! n! of te cosmos – we so"ld refer to o"r era as a world of post7"tenber! post7"tenber! !ala%ies !ala%ies rater tan a sin!"lar !ala%y !ala%y.. Dne day, day, we may even ave to rewrite te entirety of "man istory by inte!ratin! transformations on Eart wit tose in oternot parts of te "niverse infl"ences oter forms of life tat we ave iterto been conscio"s of-possibly b"t at teincl"din! sta!e of writin! tatfrom is a matter for con/ect"re rater tan empirical observation "nless one p"ts credence in te field of "folo!y, of co"rse-. D"r knowled!e of te o"ter world is, terefore, "nder!oin! a profo"nd transformation 3:, and we face te opport"nity – and indeed coice – to translate tis into practical action, from species spec ies conservati conservation on to space travel, travel, as well as te moral coice coice over weter weter or not we brin! brin! a 3:F 'robo sapiens' sapiens'  species tat in some way f"ses te "man and te macine- or oter new species into bein!3:G. 8e ave te opport"nity to "se te information information revol"tion revol"tion to set "p te e#"ivalent of stock markets of species so tat we can more acc"rately track and monitor c"rrent levels and apply ener!y in conservation were it is most needed3:C  – – ffor or e%ample e%a mple wit animals tat are ar e listed list ed on o n te I*N 0ed 5ist of Treatened pecies. 6ere, improved #"antification correlated to practical action in te field of conservation tat links to!eter 'smart mobs' and or!anisations like te 2eople's Tr"st for Endan!ered pecies pecies or te <at onservation Tr"st Tr"st and co"ld operate in a similar fasion to te 3:

2era 2eraps ps !reat !reat f"rte f"rterr advance advancess and and f"n f"ndamen damental tal paradi!m paradi!m sifts sifts lie aead aead in, say say,, o"r knowled!e knowled!e of pysics pysics partic"larly !iven (arl 2oppers modification of +rancis <aconian scientific metod and te idea of te centrality of falsification-, to"! Aicio (ak", ;2ysics of te Impossible= $ cientific E%ploration into te 8orld 8orld of 2asers, +orce +ields, Teleportation Teleportation and Time Travel> 344?- points o"t tat we ave arrived at wat may be essentially complete "nderstandin! of te basic laws of forty tree orders of ma!nit"de, from te interior of te  proton o"t to te e%pandin! "niverse. Tere are peraps certain areas of knowled!e knowled!e were we ave reaced wat are essentially 'final answers' if s"c tin!s are possible- and te frontier of o"r knowled!e is t"rnin! tat compreension into practical actions and entities. 8eter te Einsteinian dream of a teory of every everytin! tin! proves to be possible or f"ndamentally beyond te limits of te ontolo!ical and te epistemolo!ical is of co"rse an on!oin! matter of contention. +"rtermore, it is important to remember tat 5ord (elvin ad declared declared in 1944 tat ;Tere is notin! new to be discovered in pysics pysics now. now. $ll tat remains is more and more precise meas"rement.> meas"rement.> $!ain, in 2opper's terms, !iven te importance of falsification, it mi!t be te case tat tere is always sometin! new to discover – or rater, sometin! old to "ndiscover "ndiscover.. 3:F Dr per perap aps, s, in te lan! lan!"a! "a!ee o off 6ans 6ans 6ol 6olste stein, in, 'o 'omo mo cybern cyberneti etic"s c"s'.'. 3:G 2eter 2eter A Aen) en)el el and and +ait +ait '$ '$l"i l"isio sio,, ;0obo ;0obo ap apien iens= s= Evol" Evol"tion tion of a New New  pec pecies ies>> 34413441-.. Te ide ideaa of "s "s en!ineerin! an evol"tionary from te te possibility "man to te or trans"man is one of te most important moral #"estions of o"r times.sift It raises tatpost"man omo sa sapiens piens mi!t end "p, in istorical terms, akin tto oa  Neandertal or omo abilis or omo erect"s, erect"s, and be "s"rped by a form of life tat mer!e mer!ess te "man and te tecnolo!ical. 8eter we so"ld mi% te two, or keep tecnolo!y tecnolo!y as a separate e%ternal ob/e ob/ect ct from te "man s"b/ect, is a #"estion of bo"ndaries tat is "r!ent. $t some sta!e, devices implanted into o"r bodies co"ld become as "bi#"ito"s as te smartpone, and mi!t lead to te creation of a f"ndamentally different form of "man bein!. $lternatively,, we mi!t decide collectively tat s"c a pat is a dan!ero"s one tat so"ld not be adopted. Te ever $lternatively acceleratin! pace of tecnolo!ical can!e in tis area means tat we ave an "r!ent need for a wise, informed, caref"l, rational and sensible debate and disco"rse on precisely were te moral and pra!matic bo"ndaries lie, and wat lines so"ld not be crossed or trans!ressed. Df co"rse, tere ave already been all sorts of advancements in tis field already – everytin! from coclear implants to prostetic limbs – b"t mostly limited so far to compensations for people wo ave lost normal f"nctionin! of one kind or anoter rater tan a"!mentations desi!ned to can!e a normally f"nctionin! body or brain by f"sin! it in some way wit macinery. macinery. +or Nicolas $!ar, ;6"manity's End= 8y 8e 8e o"ld 0e/ect 0adical Enancement> 3411-, any f"rter /o"rneyin! down te  pat of 'radical enancement' is one one tat will brin! too m"c of a polarisation and divide, divide, wit tere bein! ;ne%t to no cance tat an "nenanced "man intellect will o"t7tink a macine mind desi!ned to process information a million times faster tan it.> In tis view, we ave o"r very "manity to lose, o"twei!in! watever advancements mi!t be made as a res"lt. 3:C Tis obvio obvio"sly "sly e%ten e%tends ds to a speci specific fic foc"s in certa certain in !eo!ra !eo!rapica picall areas. areas. $ppro%imately $ppro%imately F4L of all endan!ere endan!ered d species are estimated to live in rainforestH te $ma)on is te lar!est rainforest on Eart wic as lost aro"nd 1CL of its covera!e in te last cent"ry d"e to deforestation.

 

  correlation between information and vario"s operations and actions in te evol"tion of smart ctities 3:?. $n interestin! interestin! e%ample, to"! one tat is c"rrently c"rrently based "pon preserva preservation tion of "man life from predators predators rater tan conservation, conservation, is te "rf 5ife avin! 8estern 8estern $"stralia's $"stralia's 58 58$Twitter +eed wic "ses transmitters attaced attaced to :34 sarks in order to monitor teir locations and 3:9 warn people of teir presence . imila imilarr developments developments incl"de te robotic robotic sea animals "sed by te << to film dolpins, s"c as te py olpin or py Na"til"s, or te micro7sensors 3.Fmm by 3.Fmm 3.Fmm 0adio 0aof dioTasmania +re# +re#"en "ency cydeepen Identi Identific ficat ion ob/ect ob/ectsatt aced edof to F, F,444 444 bees bees by I0 I0D and may te te *niversity Tasmania to teation analysis of ste attac ca"ses colony collapse disorder. disorder . DTere  be oter beneficent conse#"ences from s"c researc, for e%ample te discovery of te reason for te @ formation of flyin! birds tat was attained from a team from te 0oyal @eterina @eterinary ry olle!e in 5ondon 5on don wose primary primary task was te conservati conservation on of nortern nortern bald ibises. ibises. Tere Tere are, of co"rse, co"rse, ve%ed etical #"estions ere abo"t te "se of tecnolo!ies s"c as embedded sensors in animals, wic w ic paral parallel lel t tee etic etical al #"esti #"estions ons over over t tee cy cybor bor!is !isati ation on antici anticipat pated ed in post post"m "mani anism sm or trans"manism, partic"larly over te de!ree to wic we so"ld keep te world of tecnolo!y wat (evin (elly (elly calls te 'tecni"m''tecni"m'- and te nat"ral world separate. separate. Tis is partic"larly partic"larly te case in te !rowt of wat is termed termed a 'bioybrid' society society,, wit te mi%t"re of animals animals and robots. $n e%amp e%a mple le ere ere is te 5E*0 5E*00E 0E pro/ec pro/ectt were were Ins<o Ins<ots, ts, wic wic  were were smal smalll robots robots soake soaked d wi wit t cockroac peremones, peremones, were imp"ted into cockroac pop"lations pop"lations and act"ally enco"ra!ed enco"ra!ed tem to 34 can!e teir beavio"rs. $ similar pro/ect is te $IIbf wit )ebrafis . $lto $lto"! "!  ter teree are are clea clearl rly y eti etica call an and d mora morall iss" iss"es es in tis tis sp spe ere re,, te te po pote tent ntia iall fo forr #"antification of species' n"mbers and teir movements and positions leads to te possibility of radically different different ways of monitorin! monitorin! species levels levels and avoidin! e%tincti e%tinctions. ons. If we can "se o"r collective matematical intelli!ence to create e%traordinary new forms of al!oritmic tradin! we can of co"rse "se it to tri!!er investment of reso"rces and ener!y to save partic"lar species from te fate of everytin! everytin! from te dodo or or win!less awk awk to, in tis decade, decade, everytin! from from te Pestos Pestos skipper b"tterfly to te 0ockland !rass skipper b"tterfly, te 8estern <lack 0ino, te $laotra rebe, te Eastern o"!ar, o"!ar, te &apanese 0iver Dtter, Dtter, te 2inta Island Tortoise Tortoise or te +ormosan clo"ded leopard.. leopard.. It is not diffic"lt to envisa!e, envisa!e, for e%ample, e%ample, tat one area of evol"tion of social networkin! wo"ld be a site were people can not only sare information on partic"lar species and n"mbers in teir News +eeds, b"t also link to practical actions tat people can take to elp preserve tem. Te dra!onfly effect31 co"ld terefore terefore be "sed "sed to conserve conserve n"mbers n"mbers of dra!onflies. dra!onflies. o"! En!elbart's En!elbar t's mo"se invention invention co"ld be "sed to monitor monitor and conserve mice. mice. Te e%ponential e%ponential power 33 of 'crowdso"rcin!' 'crowdso"rcin!' a term invented by &eff 6owe in 344G-  can be "sed to acieve far more tan te actions of isolated individ"als alone, by partic"larly !iven te;marter E27likeTan 'ambient of oters' coices and decisions described live Tompson, Yo"awareness' Tink= 6ow Tecnolo!y ecnolo!y is an!in! an!in! D"r Ainds for te <etter> <etter> 341:-. 341:-. $n interesti interestin! n! f"sion of social 3:?

$s o one ne ee%ample %ample were 'smartness 'smartness'' ca can n be a par partt of conse conservatio rvation n of reso"rces, reso"rces, te Tvili!t Tvili!t street street li!t li!t system system !enerates "p to ?4L ener!y savin!s by monitorin! areas were tere is an absence of people and ten lowerin! te level of li!tin! as a res"lt. 3:9 I person personally ally do no nott claim claim to be be beyond beyond te te fe fear ar of a sar sark k att attack ack on on a person personal al basis basis,, b"t to to p"t te te matte matterr in conte%t it is important to remember tat appro%imately 144 million sarks are killed by "mans eac year, and tere are peraps aro"nd twelve "mans killed by sarks per year – as displayed in &oe ernov and 0obin 0icards's infor!apic. 34 34 Em Emily ily $nsk $nskes es,, ;$ni ;$nima mals ls < <ow ow to T Teir eir Aec Aeca ani nica call Dverl Dverlor ords ds>, >, !autilus, 1:t +ebr"ary 341 31 &ennif &ennifer er $ake $akerr and $ndy $ndy mit mit,, ;Te r ra!o a!onfly nfly E Effe ffect= ct= B" B"ick ick,, Effecti Effective ve and 2owe 2owerf" rf"ll 8ay 8ayss to *se ocial ocial Aedia to rive ocial an!e> 3414-. Aarsallin! te reso"rces and ener ener!y !y of te web in tis way seems  partic"larly apt !iven te connections between between o"r tecnolo!ies and biolo!ical str"ct"res str"ct"res and systems. $s an e%ample, &"ssi 2arikka, ;Insect Aedia= $n $rcaeolo!y $rcaeolo!y of $nimals and Tecnolo!y> 3414- disc"sses te analo!ies  between o"r tecnolo!y and insect insect systems – swarms, ives, we webs, bs, distrib"ted intelli!ence and of co"rse te te "bi#"ito"s idea of a 'ive mind'. 33 E%ampl E%amples es of of te ac aciev ieveme ements nts of crowd crowdso" so"rci rcin! n! co"ld co"ld ttake ake "p many many v vol" ol"mes mes.. Dne e%a e%ampl mplee is te te mitsonian di!itral transcription pro/ect wic in 341 ad 3,1F9 members involved.

 

  networkin! and conservation was &ennifer &ac#"et's +isbook pro/ect. $n interestin! pro/ect in tis conte%t is tat of cratcpads wic is created by te Nat"ral 6istory 6is tory A"se"m A"se"m in 5ondon. 5ondon. Even Even a decade decade a!o, te level of informatio information n tat somebody somebody co"ld attain on a partic"lar endan!ered species was a mere fraction of wat it is today, and wat it co"ld  be tomorrow, partic"larly wen "sin! '!reen' searc en!ines s"c as Ecosia wo plant trees in <ra)i <ra)ill corre correlat lated ed to te n"mber n"mber of searc searces es pe peopl oplee la"nc la"nc  on tei teirr en en!in !ine-, e-, ree reen n Aaven, Aaven, Ecoear Ecoearc andasoodTree. oodT ree. Df co"rse tere is te dan!er dan!er we–accelerate accel erate te m"ltiplication plication of si!nifiersc/"st te s"pply of wat tey si!nify red"ce in tat reality b"t a!ain, on m"lti te oter side of te e#"ation, te #"estion is ow we apply o"r information e%pansion to o"r narratives and ow tese affect affect te way in wic we beave. $n ab"ndance of information information on problems problems of scarcity is not a problem problem,, b"t is instead instead a so"rce so"rce of empowe empowermen rmentt to effectiv effectivee action. action. $!ain $!ain tere is te  potential of m"ltiplayer m"ltipla yer !amification as a sp"r to action, wit an e%ample e%ampl e s"c as te 3449 ban!a ban! a Poo !ame for P"ric Poo tat asked participants to actively save endan!ered species and brin! tem back to a )oo, or te !ame +ra%in"s developed by botanists in association wit !ames company Team ooper wic e%plores te #"estion of resistance of te common as tree,  Fra4inus e4celsior , to te f"n!"s Chalara fra4inea. It is soberin! to discover te dama!e done to o"r nat"ral environment by to%ins s"c as dio%ins and 2<s. 2<s. 8e ave, t"s far, created created aro"nd ?4,444 to%ins from ydr ydrocarbons ocarbons and tese are now widely distrib"ted across o"r planet. It is also soberin! tat Eart Dversoot ay, ay, wic is conceived by te lobal +ootprint Network and te New Economics +o"ndation to be te date wen "manity as e%a"sted e%a"sted nat"re's b"d!et for te year year,, as come earlier and earlier. earlier. 8en it was first calc"lated calc"lated in 199: 199: it was determined determined to be on 31 Dctober. Dctober. In 341: it was 34stt $"!"st.  Noneteless, te t e e%istence of a meas"rement s"c s" c as tis, imperfect to"! it is, provides "s wit a f"rter layer in terms of te attempt to #"antify o"r position vis7a7vis te nat"ral world. $ccordin! to tis meas"re, we are on a yearly basis in te kind of ecolo!ical debt described by $ndrew imms. 6owever,, a!ain, we face te #"estion of ow we "se o"r c"rrent inform 6owever information ation revol"tion. revol"tion. <y 3144, for instance, we may be i!ly advanced in terms of te ability to #"antify te de!ree to wic we are in overall ecolo!ical debt or, indeed, credit 3:. In a worl world d were any teena!er in in te world wit wit an internet connection can a"to7didactically do a de!ree in statistics wito"t needin! to enroll in a "niversity and wrack "p t"ition fees, te #"estion of ow we n"merically rate biodiversity biodiversity,, and o"r efforts to s"stain it, can potentially can!e o"t of all reco!nition d"rin! te co"rse of tis cent"ry 3. 8e may see advancements beyond traditional metrics s"c as ross National 2rod"ct or ross omestic 2rod"ct3F wit statistical systems s"c as te New Economics +o"ndation's Inde% of "stainable Economic IE8alon! wit s"c *nited Nations's 6"ma 6" man n evel evelopm opmen entt 8ell7<ein! Inde% Inde% as we well ll as bar barom omete eters rs oter of s"c s"systems c possi possibly bly as intan! intte an!ibl iblee- entiti ent ities es as appiness. ependin! on o"r coices 3G, we mi!t reac a point were eac year we are able to move 3:

In 341: 341: te Inter Inter!ov !overn ernmen mental tal 2a 2anel nel o on n limat limatee an!e an!e I2 I2-- pe!! pe!!ed ed te tota totall amo"nt amo"nt te te wor world ld can can afford afford to emit at 1,444 billion metric "nits of carbon. $s of 341, appro%imately F:1 billion metric tons of tis tis total 'ener!y b"d!et' as been taken "p, accordin! to &eff pross, Climate Pro.ress, 1Ct &an"ary 341. <y te end of tis cent"ry we may ave !one tro"! a radical sift in o"r ability to collate s"c fi!"res and o"r ability to work witin overall ecolo!ical b"d!ets. It is possible at te moment, for e%ample, to prod"ce prod"ce carbon footprint maps at te level of a detail of a )ipcode or postcode in te *(-. Aappin! is also catalysin! catalysin! te renewable ener!y revol"tion, wit  pro/ects s"c as te lobal lobal $tlas for olar and 8ind or te 8orld 8orld <ank 0enewable Ener!y Ener!y Aappin! 2ro!ramme la"nced in 341:. 3 In te te pre previo vio"s "s wo work rk I e% e%plo plored red tto o an e%te e%tent nt some some of te te ramifi ramifica cation tionss of te te new eera ra in term termss of ed"ca ed"catio tion. n. $n interestin! e%ample in tis spere is te 3413 e%periment by te AIT Aedia 5ab were tey !ave pre7loaded tablets to primary a!e cildren in Etiopia wito"t instr"ctions or teacers, wic led to remarkable res"lts in terms of te lessons learnt by te cildren. 3F &osep &osep t ti!l i!lit) it),, $marty $martyaa en and &ean7 &ean72a" 2a"ll +ito +ito"ss "ssi, i, ;Ais7A ;Ais7Aeas eas"ri "rin! n! D"r 5ives 5ives== 8y 2 2 doe doesn' sn'tt add "p> 3414-. 3G avid 8einber!er einber!er,, ;Too ;Too <i! <i! to ( (now> now> 3413- points o"t tat tat in te a!e a!e of searc searc en!ines, en!ines, o"r filters filters do not

 

  into a position of ecolo!ical ecolo!ical credit rater tan debt tro"! an improved ability to a"dit everytin! from o"r carbon footprint to te de!ree to wic we ave oversot te carryin! capacity of o"r  planet, to "se te term associated wit te work of 8illiam atton in 19?4. 8e co"ld see a  paradi!m sift in s"c calc"lations c alc"lations akin to te rise of do"ble d o"ble entry acco"ntin! from te t e 1: cent"ry t onwards . Tis Tis is partic partic"l "larl arly y te case !iven !iven t tee scope scope for e% e%tra traord ordina inary ry ad advan vancem cement ent in matematics in te a!e of 8olfram $lpa tat is implicit in te rise of te processin! power of comp"ter comp"ters, s, wit everytin! fromwit te sol"tion te 0obbins con/ect"re in 199G te discovery of te ? Aersenne prime n"mber over 1C to million decim decimalsalsin &an"ary 341: to "nder te a"spices of te reat Internet Aersenne 2rime earc IA2- wic is yet anoter e%ample of te c"m"lative power of distrib"ted comp"tin! t. $ f"rte f"rterr cr"cial e%ampl e%amplee as been te 2olymat 2olymat  2r 2ro/ o/ec ects ts wic wic  ori! ori!in inat ated ed wit wit Tim owe owers rs an and d Ter eren ence ce Tao in 34 3449 49 an and d a ave ve fo foc" c"se sed d collaborative collaborat ive attention on te density version of te 6ales7&ewett 6ales7&ewett teorem, Aoser n"mbers for low dimensions, dimensio ns, and te Erdos discrepancy discrepancy,, amon! oter ve%ed areas of e%ploration. e%ploration. Dne wonders #"ite ow lon! te seven millenni"m problems in matematics will remain "nsolved in te di!ital era beyond ri!ori 2erelman's sol"tion to te 2oincare con/ect"re- 3C, as /"st one e%ample e%ample of te topo!rapy of tis partic"lar frontier frontier of knowled!e, knowled!e, as well as problems problems s"c as te abc con/ect"re wic may ave been solved by te &apanese matematician inici Aoci)"ki in 3413 is  proofs are c"rrently c"rrentl y bein! analysed by oter matematicians-. If Ernst 0enan was ri!t tat in is time te ;simplest scoolboy> was in possession possession of facts for wic $rcimedes $rcimedes wo"ld wo"ld ave sacrificed is life, ow m"c more co"ld tis be te case in one "ndred, one to"sand or one million years from now or an ima!inary n"mber of years-O 3?  D"r  period is one of e%traordinary transitions in scale in terms of #"antification= as one e%ample, in 144 Aadava of an!ama!rama calc"lated pi to tirteen decimal places to :.11F93GF:F?9C-. Tis was e%tended to tirty7five by 5"dolp van e"len two "ndred years later, a process wic took im most of is life to acieve. acieve. Te a!e of comp"terisa comp"terisation tion as transform transformed ed tis frontier frontier completely – in 199 .+.+er!"son "sed a desk calc"lator to arrive at /"st over one to"sand di!itsH  by 19?9 it reaced over one billion, by 199C te year before arren $ronofsky's $ronofsk y's film- more tan filter o"t b"t, instead, instead, filter forward. Tis raises te #"estion of wat we we perceive of as o"r priorities. Information yper7ab"ndance and te era of 0eadin! 3.4 in te words of &ason Aerkoski does not precl"de te #"estion of  prioritisation b"t, if anytin!, sarpens it. t $s aan n e%amp e%ample, le, Aatis Aatis 8acker ackerna! na!el el aand nd 8i 8illi lliam am 0ees 0ees,, ;D ;D"r "r Ec Ecolo! olo!ica icall +ootp +ootprin rint= t= 0ed" 0ed"cin cin! ! 6"man 6"man Impact Impact on Eart> 199G, p.3- cite te calc"lation by tanford *niversity biolo!ist 2eter @ito"sek and collea!"es in 19?G tat at tat point "man activities were appropriatin!, eiter directly or indirectly, 4L of te prod"cts of terrestrial  potosyntesis, wile "man e%ploitation e%ploitation of te continental selves was reacin! a similarwit proportion.. Dver te co"rse of tis cent"ry, if we coose to do so, it will be possible to meas"re s"c sit"ations ever !reater  precision, and to rate o"r pro!ress in red"cin! red"cin! te rate of depletion of nat"ral reso"rces and o"r aadvances dvances in alternatives. t Te Tere re is an inter interest estin! in! iinte nterfa rface ce be betwe tween en w work orkss of indi individ vid"al "al iinsp nspira iratio tion n s"c s"c as ta tatt by Yita itan! n! Pan! Pan! and te te new e%ponential power of crowdso"rcin! and even faster comp"tin!. $ndrei Tarkovsky Tarkovsky viewed solit"de as absol"tely essential to is art, and it is disc"ssed in $ntony torr, ;olit"de= $ 0 0et"rn et"rn to te elf> 19??-. Today Today,, we face te possibility of a syntesis of te two – a yper7connected solit"de, or yper7alone interpersonality. interpersonality. Not #"ite #"otin! 0obert 2"tnam, one can bowl alone, and at te same time bowl wit billions of oter interconnected  people. 3C $nd, $nd, it was aanno nno"nc "nced ed b b"t "t "nc "nconfi onfirme rmedd- in &an"a &an"ary ry 341 341, , A"kt A"ktarb arbai ai Dt Dtelb elbaye ayev's v's sol" sol"tio tion n to te Navi Navier er77 tokes e#"ations. 3? Tis is p partic artic"larly "larly te case if we mana!e mana!e to s"cce s"ccessf" ssf"lly lly reform"l reform"late ate o"r instit instit"tions "tions for te te a!e a!e in wic we live. aty avidson, ;Now Yo" Yo" ee It= 6ow te <rain cience of $ttention 8ill Transform te 8 8ay ay 8 8ee 5ive, 8ork, and 5earn>  3411- ar!"es tat many of o"r instit"tions, partic"larly ed"cationally, ed"cationally, are st"ck in a 34 t cent"ry  paradi!m wic is fo"nded on te idea tat tat ;completin! one task before startin! aanoter noter one is te ro"te to s"ccess.>anytin! Insteadlike se ap"ts forward importanceone of m"l m"ltitaskin! titaskin! attention, tat since ;di!ital a! a!eeto Sis wito"t central nodete broadcastin! stream of information weo"r pay attention at str"ct"red any !iven moment.> $s observed by ttp=JJwww.onlineco"rse.com, it ttp=JJwww.onlineco"rse.com, it was only in 19G4 tat te first comp"ter7assisted instr"ction system, 25$TD, 25$TD, was developed at te *niversity of Illinois to provide co"rsework at more tan 1444 terminals, so we are only a relatively sort period of time into tis partic"lar period of ed"cational reformation.

 

  fifty billion, by 3449 over two trillion, and, as of 3? ecember 341:, 13 trillion accordin! to $le%ander &.Yee and i!er" (ondo-. Aeanwile, work by tan cein and &ames ayed on oldber!7type polyedra p"blised in +ebr"ary 341 "nveiled wat cein describes as te ;first new class of conve%, e#"ilateral  polyedra wit icosaedral icos aedral symmetry in 44 years.> years .> Te #"antification revol"tion may take "s in all sorts of directions in a very sort space of istoricall for istorica time tat f"ndamentally f"ndament alters te nat"reofofte tecity worlds in wic wic  weave live.lar!e It isinformation possible to ima!ine, e%ample, anoterally sta!e of evol"tion in wic cities  boards rater similar to te one in, say, say, Time #"are #" are in New York- wic flow tro"! massive amo"nts of information abo"t te city and its performance as a space of conservation and care of  pysical reso"rces, peraps "sin! data accr"ed from so"rces s"c as te E!! sensor wic people can "se to detect te readin!s of !ases s"c as nitro!en o%ide or carbon mono%ide o"tside teir omes om es in order order to assess assess overall overall poll"tion poll"tion levels. levels. Tere Tere are already arbin! arbin!ers ers of te kind of vis"alisations of lar!e amo"nts of a!!re!ated data in te i2ad wall prod"ced by te entre for $dvanced patial patial $nalysis $nalysis at *niversity *niversity olle!e, olle!e, 5ondon. In a sense tis wo"ld contin"e te lon! love affair between te "rban and #"antificationH $ndrew rosby, ;Te Aeas"re of 0eality> 199C p"ts forward te tesis tat te rise of te E"ropean city and indeed city7state- was, from its inception, intimately connected wit meas"rement and #"antification. 8e face, face, terefo terefore, re, te potentia potentiall to inte!rat inte!ratee e%ponent e%ponential ial informa information tion e%pansio e%pansion nt  wit  pysical and real life pro/ects pro /ects and instit"tions tat elp to n"rt"re, n"rt"r e, foster, and save species spe cies of plants and animals animals from e%tinction e%tinction.. Tis Tis is /"st anoter anoter e%ample e%ample of te kind of transforma transformation tionss of 39 everyday life tat caracterise o"r era . National parks parks are one e%ample e%ample of spaces spaces tat are defined defined as )ones of conservation, datin! from te 1?C3 instit"tion of te Yellowstone park in te *$. 8etlands are are anoter, anoter, protected protected by te 19C1 0amsar 0amsar onvention. onvention. Te I*N as as si% cate!ories cate!ories   ran!in! from strict nat"re reserve or wilderness areas s"c as te enali National 2ark in te *$ to mana!ed reso"rce protected protected areas s"c as te 8"dan!san 8"dan!san scenic scenic area in ina. $lto"! )oos in tis re!ard are controversial, and tere is a profo"nd debate over te liberty of animals and te val"e of allowin! tem to live in te wild, tere are in te order of :44 endan!ered species in )oos and tere ave been s"ccessf"l preservations of animals s"c as te bison, 2r)ewalski's orse 3F4, te avid deer 3F1, te !olden lion tamarin, te black7footed ferret, te alifornian condor and te $rabian ory%3F3.  Tere are, in total, total, abo"t 1F44 botanic !ardens !ardens worldwide worldwide as well as between ?44 and 14,444 )oolo!ical parks dependin! on ow tey are defined-3F:. $noter instit"tional e%ample is tat of seed banks, wic follow te pioneerin! work of Nikolai @avilov @avilov.. Tere are abo"t 1:44 !enebanks teNational world. l T world. o!eter tese tese old more tan : million sampl es do, of to"sands kinds of  plants – tein* Nationa 2lant ermplasm ystem  ystem in +ort ollins, oll ins,samples olorado, olora stores s tores seeds seedof s of abo"t 3F4,444 different varieties and species, wile te Aillenni"m eed <ank 2ro/ect at te 0oyal <otanic ardens in te *( is c"rrently collectin! and storin! seeds from 14L of te world's plant

t

It is is inter interest estin! in! in tis tis re!ard re!ard ta tatt t tee in inter ternet net its itself elf is ssome ometim times es desc describ ribed ed as as bein! bein! aki akin n to or a kind kind of ecosystem – for e%ample in $mo! amdere, ;2rovider and 2eer election in te Evolvin! Internet Ecosystem> 3449, p.C-. Dne wonders if partic"lar websites ss"rvive "rvive and flo"ris on te basis of a kind of nat"ral se selection lection  process. 2eraps websites abo"t a arles rles arwin or $ $lfred lfred Nort 8allace 8allace mi!t prove to be partic"larly s"ccessf"l s"ccessf"l in te lon!7term. 39 Nicol Nicolas as a ane ne in te /o"rn /o"rnal al ;Inform ;Informati ation, on,  omm omm"ni "nicat cation ion an and d oci ociety ety>> 344F344F- ar!"ed ar!"ed tat tat te infor informat mation ion a!e is radically alterin! te tree main speres of social life – te speres of prod"ction, cons"mption and comm"nication. 0ater tan simply addin! anoter layer layer to wat already e%isted, it is instea instead d leadin! to far more f"ndamental metamorposes. 3F4 endan!ered 6ere 6ere te pec pecies ies199F" "rvi rvival val 2lan 2lan of 1 19?1 9?1 iiss impo importa rtant, nt, as disc disc"ss "ssed ed in a anie niell oen, oen, ;Te ;Te modern modern ark= ark= savin! savin! species> 3F1 Eric (at), (at), ;;Nat Nat"re "re aass "b/ec "b/ect= t= 6 6"ma "man n Db Dbli! li!ati ation on aand nd Nat"r Nat"ral al o omm" mm"nity nity>> 199C, 199C, p.19p.193F3 aron aron "yr" "yr"p, p, ;t ;tate ate of te te 8 8ild= ild= $ loba loball 2ort 2ortrai raitt of 8ildl 8ildlife ife,, 8etl 8etland andss and Dce Dceans ans>> 344 344F, F, ,p.?,p.?3F 3F: : &on &on pic picer er,, ;<io ;<iodi dive vers rsit ity y> 344 3449, 9, p.1 p.1F1 F1--

 

  species, incl"din! all species native to te co"ntry 3F.   Te valba valbard rd seed bank bank in Norway also also known by some as te oomsday @a"lt@a"lt- was created in 344?, "ses permafrost as part of its coolin! systems, and is one of te world's lar!est seed banks wit a capacity of fo"r million accessions 3FF. Tis also as ramifications for te callen!e of feedin! te appro%imate ten or eleven billion "man  bein!s wo may be alive in 3144 – an e%ample ere is te International 0ice 0esearc Instit"te wic was fo"nded in 19G4 and wic was inte!ral in te development of te a!ric"lt"ral reen 0evol"tion te 19G4s 19C4s. in te s"stainable s"pply of food and water is, yet a!ain, at te Te in #"estion of aand transition eart of te #"estion of ab"ndance and scarcity, scarcity, and in tis sense we m"st innovate in ways tat are akin to te rise of te a!ric"lt"ral a!ric"lt"ral revol"tion in te Neolitic period as it emer!ed from te Aiddle Eastern "merian "merian cities abo"t F,F444 <2, <2, in te polyc"lt"ral sift to crop rotation in te ei!teent ei!teent cent"ry $!ric"lt"ral and Ind"strial 0evol"tions, and in te 19G4s and 19C4s reen 0evol"tion wit a sol"tion to te problem of intensive water cons"mption wic was a part of tat revol"tion-. +ood and water are of co"rse closely intertwined, since abo"t C4L of water "sed by people !oes into irri!ation irri!ati on wic also as lon!7term effects effects in terms of land dama!e as a res"lt of salination 3FL of 2akistan's c"ltivated land as been dama!ed in tis way- 3FG  Te field field of smart smart irri! irri!atio ation n is, terefore, i!ly important, wit companies s"c as Netafirm or 6ydro2oint ata ystems "sin! tecni#"es s"c as drip irri!ation, membrane bio reactor and reverse osmosis tecnolo!y to eiter conserve water water or to recycle it. ompanies ompanies s"c as Ta(a" Ta(a" are also also employin! employin! sensors and bi! data clo"d analytic software to improve water networks and to eliminate wasta!e 3FC. 0ainwater arvestin! arvestin ! may become more and more an inte!ral part of everyday personal personal water cycles over te co"rse of tis cent"ry and beyond. Te sit"ation ere is one is tr"ly radical, and provides callen!es callen!es tat will test o"r ability to sare information and create better forms of or!anisation in order to avoid a decidedly "n!ry  planet3F?  olin T"d!e, T"d!e, ;o all 8e 8e 0eap> 344- posits a sit"ation sit"ation were tere are sometin! sometin! in te order of 1.: billion ectares "sed as arable land, providin! appro%imately 4.33 ectares or abo"t alf an acreacre- per person. In contrast, in in 19G4 te amo"nt of land land "sed for arable prod"ction prod"ction was ro"!ly te same b"t te pop"lation was aro"nd alf of wat it is now, now, so tat eac person ad 4.C ectares. Tee demand T demandin! in! nat"re nat"re of te task task aead aead is parti partic"l c"lar arly ly te te case case !iven !iven te te '5 '5iv ivest estock ock 0evol"tion' from te 19C4s onwards wic as seen marked rises in te cons"mption of meat in developin! developin ! co"ntries. <rian ardner, ardner, ;lobal +ood +"t"res= +eedin! +eedin! te 8orld 8orld in 34F4> 341:makes te observation tat food prod"ction wo"ld need to increase in te order of between F4L and 144L by 34F4 to 31 feed feed te increased incre ased p.i%level ar!"es of pop"lation. pop"lation. @aclav m ;+eedin! ;+ee 8orld= 8orld= $ allen!e for te ent"ry> 3441, tat we wo"ld notmil, beil, able todin! feed te te c"rrently e%istin! world pop"lation pop"lation if Nort $merica's $merica's food s"pply per capita of wic 4L is wasted- were to become te !lobal norm ;in a world tat wo"ld be "sin! m"c i!er a!ric"lt"ral inp"ts inp"ts wit no  better efficiencies tan we do today.> +"rtermore, 0"t!er van anten, /an (oe and <ram @ermeer, ermeer, ;34:4= Tecnolo!y Tecnolo!y Tat 8ill 8ill an!e te 8orld> 3414, p.3- st  make te point tat te amo"nt of fres water available available per ead of pop"lation is /"st 3FL of wat it was in 19G4 3F9 &ames 3F 3FF 3FG 3FC 3F? st

5inda 5inda <er! <er!,, ;Intro ;Introd"c d"ctory tory <ot <otany any== 2la 2lants nts,, 2eo 2eople ple and and t tee En Envir vironm onment ent>> 344C 344C,, p.1?Fp.1?FA Norma Norma, , 6 in, in, < 0ee 0eed, d, ;on ;onser servat vation ion of Trop Tropica icall 2l 2lant ant pecie pecies> s> 341 3413, 3, p.9p.96amis 6amis Ac0a Ac0ae, e, ;Te ;Te 8orld 8orld in 34 3434= 34= 2 2owe ower, r, "lt"r "lt"ree and and 2ro 2rospe sperity rity>> 199F, 199F, p pp.1 p.137 37FFAattew 8all, < << < Ne News, : :4 4t &"ly 341:

To p"rloin te title of te book by 2eter Aen)el and +ait '$l"isio 344F-. $note $noterr key key front frontier ier of o o"r "r k know nowled led!e !e aand nd p prac ractic tical al app applic licati ation on is, is, ter terefo efore, re, wat water er d desa esalin linati ation. on. Te Tere re are are at at

tedrastically time of writin! sometin! in invention te order of 1G,444 des alination plants worldwide. Te sit"ation co"ld, cip owever owever,,  be altered tro"! an s"c s"c as tedesalination electrocemically media mediated ted seawater desalination developed by Dkeanos Tecnolo!ies. Tecnolo!ies. $t te moment it only acieves 3FL desalination rater tan te re#"ired 99L b"t may be a arbin!er of a profo"nd advance in te f"t"re. 3F9 $ st"dy st"dy by t tee AI AIT T &o &oint int 2 2ro! ro!ram ram o on n lo lobal bal a an!e n!e ccame ame to te te concl concl"si "sion on in 341 341 tat tat by 34F4 34F4

 

  Aartin points o"t tat we are "sin! abo"t 1G4 billion tons more water eac year tan is bein! repleni repl enised sed by rain-. rain-. 6ere te #"estion #"estion is also one of stabilit stability y in terms terms of politica politicall and social social arran!ements, for tere is a correlation between scarcity and rises in food prices carted, for insta ins tance nce,, in te erea ereall 2ric 2ricee Inde% Inde% p"bli p"blise sed d by te te *nit *nited ed Natio Nations ns +ood +ood an and d $!ri $!ric"l c"lt"r t"ree Dr!ani)ation, wit its spike to 3G4 points in &"ly 3413- and political revolt and disarmony. enocidal conflicts s"c as tose in 0wanda and <"r"ndi in 199 were correlated to dro"!t. 6ere te remarkable increase in and yields created by tetoreen 0evol"tion itself provides an inspirational e%ample – between 19F4 19? it elped lead to an increase in world !rain  prod"ction of o f 3F4L, to"! wit certain marked mark ed costs s"c s"c  as land de!radation d e!radation 3G4, a dependence on  pesticides and biocides or te omo!enisation of crops as a res"lt of te abandonment of seed savin! and te "ptake of ybrid seeds 3G1. Tis was al also so acieved acieved in lar!e part part tro"! te te inp"t of fossil f"el ener!y increasin! increasin! te ener!y flow to a!ric"lt"re by an avera!e of F4 times its traditional traditional 3G3 ener!y inp"t-  so once a!ain te #"estion of o"r s"ccesses and acievements tis cent"ry is based and fo"nded "pon te need to stim"late and accelerate a s"stainable ener!y revol"tion3G:, driven by emer!in! companies s"c as ood Ener!y and Ecotricity as well as by te micro7actions of billions of individ"als and small or!anisations incl"din! te potential !rowt of decentralised, peer7to7peer ener!y savin!-3G  on te basis basis of te relatio relationsi nsip p between between micromo micromotiv tives es and macrobe macrobeavi avio"r o"r e%plored by Tomas cellin!. In te field of food prod"ction, as well as in te field of animals and "mans, !enetic modification is one of te most contentio"s debates of o"r time, !iven concerns over te ealt effects, top7down corporate infl"ence and te possible dama!e to te nat"ral balances of o"r ecosystems, as well as te wider concern over frankensteinism, prometeanism or !olem7ism and te de!ree to wic mankind so"ld 'play od' 3GF  !enetic en!ineerin! as of co"rse e%isted appro%imately F3L of te world pop"lation will live in water7stressed areas. It takes takes nat"re nat"re F F44 44 y years ears tto o replac replacee one inc inc  of lost lost topsoi topsoil. l. or ordon don onw onway ay ;Dne ;Dne <illi <illion on 6"n!ry 6"n!ry== an 8e +eed te 8orldO> 8orldO> 3413- asserts tat, accordin! to te Global Assessment of ,uman *nduced Soil 'e.radation 5GLASO'6 , abo"t :44 million ectares, or FL of te formerly "sable land in developin! co"ntries, as been lost since 1991. $n interestin! development in tis spere spere is lomi Air's T"mbleweed T"mbleweed esert wic is a robot tat tat "ses te wind for prop"lsion and is accr"in! accr"in! data on ow deserts spread. Air p"ts forward te tantalisin! to"!t e%periment of a f"t"re nanobot ;tat eats sand sand and converts it into fertiliser.> fertiliser.> 2ytoremediation is also an interestin! frontier, wit te "se of plants tat are able to contain or eliminate poll"tants from soils s"c as metals or  pesticides. Tis is disc"ssed in (enny $"s"bel and &.2 &.2.6arpi!nies, .6arpi!nies, ;Nat"re's Dperatin! Ins Instr"ctions= tr"ctions= Te T Tr"e r"e <iotecnolo!ies> 344-. 0acel $rmstron! in ;5on!eviti)e Essays on te cience, 2ilosopy and 2olitics of 5on!evity> 341:- disc"sses oystertect"re, were oysters are "sed to filter imp"rities and improve water #"ality, wic is associated wit (ate Drff wo as plans to to elp revive New York's York's rivers wit oysters. 2eter r"cker, ;2ost7apitalist ociety> 199:- ar!"ed tat knowled!e was te new means of prod"ction, replacin! lland, and, labo"r, capital and entreprene"rsip. Df co"rse, land as not diminised in importance, importance, and wit an ever e%pandin!  pop"lation, is more important tan ever. ever. <"t ere a!ain we face te rec"rrin! #"estion= #"estion= ow can we "se o"r near infinite- e%pansion of knowled!e and ideas, created in near infinite di!ital form, to brin! abo"t a can!e or renaissance in te way we impact and steward o"r limited and finite pysical worldO 3G1 $ co"n co"nter ter7vie 7view w is provid provided ed by @ @and andana ana  iva iva,, ;Te @iol iolenc encee of te ree reen n 0evol"t 0evol"tion ion>> 199 199113G3 ale 2feiffer 2feiffer,, ;Eatin! ;Eatin! +ossil +ossil +"els= +"els= Dil, +ood and te omin omin! ! risis risis in $!ric"lt"re $!ric"lt"re>> 341: 341: , pp.C714pp.C714-.. 2feiffer 2feiffer pp.1G71?- "ses te concept of "s bein! in overdraft rater similar to te macrocosmic idea of Eart oversoot- in terms of "sin! "p te water reso"rces of several different so"rces s"c as te olorado 0iver ;wic is red"ced to a trickle by te time it reaces te 2acific-, ina's Yellow Yellow river, te an!es, te Nile, te $ral sea, te D!allala D !allala a#"ifer, and so on 3G: $dam $dam mit, mit, of co co"rs "rse, e, e%plo e%plored red tte e wealt wealt  of nat nation ionsH sH "n "nder derlyi lyin! n! it as as been been wa watt &eremy &eremy 5e!!et 5e!!ettt wo"ld wo"ld call call te ener!y of nations. 3G 2ower 2owerin! in! o"r o"r di! di!ital ital era itse itself lf of co"rse co"rse de demands mands vast amo"n amo"nts ts of ener ener!y= !y= +acebook's +acebook's serve serverr farm farm constr"c constr"cted ted in 5"lea in te $rctic ircle in 3411 is one e%ample, bein! powered entirely by renewable ener!y. ener!y. $ll sorts of innovations and developments may caracterise tis cent"ry. cent"ry. $s one small e%ample, Iceland's I271 pro/ect was te world's first ma!ma7enanced !eotermal system accordin! to 8ilfred Elders of te *niversity of alifornia. Tere are no easy answers in tis spere. $n interestin! perspective is provided by tewart <rand, 3GF as #"oted in $le% teffen, ed, ;8orldcan!in!= ;8orldcan!in!= $ *ser's "ide for te 31st ent"ry> 344? ,p.114-= ;te best way wa y for do"bters to control a #"estionable new tecnolo!y is to embrace it, lest it remain wolly in te ands of 3G4

 

  tro"!o"t "man istory in te form of selective breedin!, b"t o"r e%traordinary advances in te field of !enomics offer a different level of potential 3GG-. ecidin! were te bo"ndary lines of wat is etical and practical lie is one of te most "r!ent tasks of o"r era. Te pace of development is acceleratin! in tis field as wit oters, s"c as te news in &an"ary 341 tat 0otamstead 0esearc 0esearc  ad en!ineered plant seeds to contain Dme!a7: fatty acids tat are normally fo"nd in oily fis. imilar pro/ects incl"de te development of !olden rice wic is 'biofortified' wit added  provitamin $ beta7caroteneof beta7caroteneand )inc to compensate deficiencies dietswit possibly, lar!e n"mbers lives3GC. 2apayas iin n 6awaii ave ave beenfor modified modifie d since in 1999 witand,  resistance resistanc e tosave te  papaya rin!spot vir"s, allowin! widespread c"ltivation wic wo"ld not ave occ"rred oterwise. Te ainsb"ry 5aboratory at olney in Norfolk ave tested bli!t7resistant potatoes tat mi!t  potentially ave prevented te reat +amine in Ireland ad tey e%isted, and ad !overnmental  policies been different tan tey were-. 8e now also ave te sit"ation were poetry itself is transm"tatin!, wit a pro/ect s"c as te enote%t e%periment were ristian <ok as written  poetry into te fibre and str"ct"re of te !enetic !en etic code of bacteria. 8e may also see paradi!m7siftin! advances in oter fields in terms of food prod"ction s"c as a#"ac"lt"re wic as deep roots, wit te first a#"ac"lt" a#"ac"lt"re re te%t in e%istence bein! attrib"ted attrib"ted to 3G? a inese politician, +an 5ei, and dated abo"t F44 < , b"t wic as also been "nder!oin! a  process of marked recent transition and development to new levels and layers-. la yers-. $#"ac"lt"re may in fact crystallise into a '<l"e 0evol"tion' to rival te reen 0evol"tion, wit tilapia becomin! te 'cicken' of fis farmin!. farmin!. Tere may be enormo"s enormo"s advances tro"! tecni#"es tecni#"es and pilosopies pilosopies s"c as permac"lt"re, ydroponics, vertical farmin! by or!anisations s"c as reen pirit +arms, or!anic farmin! s"c as &oel alatins 2olyface +arm-, f"n!i and mycoforestry 3G9, scemes s"c as  poplar7based a!roforestry in places s"c as nort India, or tro"! te kind of simple, nat"ral farmin! farm in! espo"sed espo"sed by teacer teacerss s"c as Aasanob" Aasanob" +"k"oka. +"k"oka. Tere Tere may also be an e%ponentia e%ponentiall !rowt in te kind of '"rban ac"p"nct"re' to "se a term created by &aime 5erner, te mayor "ritiba in <ra)il- tat as ener!ised pro/ects s"c as Incredible Edible Todmorden and its descendents, were "rban and derelict areas are appropriated by local comm"nities to !row localised food s"pplie s"pp lies. s. If people people coose to do so, we may enter enter an era were were te prevalence prevalence of food miles miles is 3C4 radically red"ced and were tere is a rise of te 'locavorism'  favo"red by pro/ects s"c as te 144 mile diet espo"sed by $lisa mit and &ames Aac(innon. Aac(innon. 8ilst te lon!7term tra/ectory tra/ectory as been for people in developed co"ntries to move away from !rowin! even a proportion of teir own food, a tendency tat as !one alon! wit "rbanisation and te sift to tertiary and #"aterna #"aternary ry sectors of employment, it may be tat widespread food !rowin! becomes an inte!ral part of te  portfolio of /obs tat make "p o"r 31 cent"ry careers. Tis for mi!t lead to te manifestation of 0icard 6einber!'s vision of 'fifty million farmers' in te *$, e%ample. Aean Ae anw wil ile, e, as di disc sc"s "sse sed d in 0ic 0icar ard d Aann Aannin in!, !, ;+oo ;+ood' d'ss +ron +ronti tier er== Te Te Ne%t Ne%t ree reen n 0evol"tion> 3444-, a foc"s "pon deep and traditional metods, s"c as te $)tec polycroppin! sy syste stem m of milpa wic is still "sed by Ae%ican farmers- may elp to solve problems tat ave arisen aris en o"t of monoc"l monoc"lt"re t"re in parts of te *$. $s &ames Aartin, Aartin, ;Te ;Te Aeanin! Aeanin! of te 31 stst ent"ry> 344G- ar!"es, te ydroponic revol"tion is partic"larly promisin! !iven te remarkably low "se of water tat it involves, wit some farms "sin! a fift to a tent of te water "sed in ent"siasts wo tink tere is notin! #"estionable abo"t it.> 3GG arro arrots, ts, for instance, instance, were ori!in ori!inally ally wite or p p"rple "rple.. Dran! Dran!ee ones ones are te prod"ct prod"ct of a m"tatio m"tation n selec selected ted by a "tc ortic"lt"ralist cent"ries a!o beca"se it was te colo"r of te "tc 0oyal 6o"se of Dran!e7Nassa". 3GC $ccor $ccordin! din! to 6 6elen elen (elle (ellerr Internati International, onal, eac year an estima estimated ted GC4,444 GC4,444 cildren cildren die die o off vitamin vitamin $ deficiency deficiency and :F4,444 !o blind as a res"lt of it. 3G? &on &on 5"cas 5"cas and 2a"l 2a"l o"t! o"t!ate ate,, ;$#"ac" ;$#"ac"lt" lt"re= re= +armi +armin! n! $#"a $#"atic tic $nimal $nimalss and 2lant 2lants> s> 344: 344:-. -. 3G9 networks 2a"l tame tamets, ts, ;Ayce ;Ayceli"m li"m 0"nni 0"nnin!= n!= 6ow A"srooms ooms an of 6elp teand 8orld> 3411-. 3411-. Ittamet tamets s ssees ees te root of m"srooms as bein! anala!o"s anala!o"s toA"sr te arcitect"re o"rave brains te internet. is an intri!"in! idea, and one tat mi!t appeal to people interested in samanism, to consider tat te internet mi!t itself be a version of te intelli!ence of f"n!i filtered tro"! "man conscio"sness. 3C4 3C4 '5oc '5ocav avore ore'' was was te te D D%fo %ford rd word word of te te y yea earr for for 344C 344C..

 

  conventional farmin!. $!ain ere tere is te promise of e%panded yields, wi conventional wit t some ydroponic farms !rowin! tomatoes prod"cin! 1? times te yield of conventional farms. Event"ally cities may ave vast amo"nts of food bein! !rown "nder!ro"nd in te manner of te 5ondon Pero arbon +ood pro/ect or te proposed '2op own' pro/ect to !row m"srooms in te dis"sed Aail 0ail t"nnel t"nn el below D%ford treet. treet. Aasse Aasse <loomfield <loomfield envisa!e envisa!ess a sit"atio sit"ation n were were a"tomat a"tomated ed food 3C1 factoriess feed comm"nities of aro"nd 14,444 people tat form te n"clei of cities . ertainly one factorie can spec"late onare te"sed kindin offood e%ponential tat co"ld if comp"ters of te power of s"percomp"ters factoriescan!es and food labs tatocc"r are based on closed7loop etics of recyclin! and minimisation of inp"ts and ne!ative e%ternality o"tp"ts. $ sift to ve!etarianism and ve!anism, s"!!ested as a f"t"re trend by &ames <"rke, mi!t  play a role in can!in! te de!ree to wic we place press"re on te pysical p ysical reso"rces of te world tro"! tr o"!  a!ric a!ric"lt "lt"r "re, e, and mi!t mi!t also also lead lead to a c"rtai c"rtailm lment ent of te relea release se of met metane ane into into te te 3C3 atmospere . 8e may see a development o"t of sometin! like te seedball tat acts a food s"pply c"rvebal c"rv eball. l. $n e%ample e%ample in tis spere spere is te ystem ystem of 0ice 0ice Intensif Intensificat ication ion 0I- wi wic c was  pioneered by 6enri de 5a"lanie 5a"l anie in te 19?4s in Aada!ascar and as a s been "sed from f rom India to 5atin $mer $m eric icaa and, and, ac acco cord rdin in! ! to t tee orn ornel elll In Inte tern rnat atio iona nall In Inst stit it"t "tee fo forr +ood +ood,, $!ri $!ric" c"lt lt"r "ree an and d evelopment, evelopm ent, as been sown to increase yields by 347144L, red"ce te amo"nt of seed needed by 94L and "se "p to F4L less water tan more establised metods of c"ltivation 3C:. Indeed, witin a relatively sort space of time tere may be sifts as dramatic and far7reacin! as te first c"ltivation of rice in $sia appro%imately C,444 years a!o or of sor!"m, millet or mai)e in $frica and $merica some time later – or of tecni#"es s"c as refri!eration, wic was rated as te most important innovation innovatio n in "manity's c"linary c"linary istory by te 0oyal 0oyal ociety in 3413. 2lant5ab, 2lant5ab, for e%ample, e%ample, disc"ss te way tat improvements in te #"ality and cost of 5Es followin! 6ait)'s 5aw, wic is rater similar to Aoore's 5aw- combine in advances in climate control, sensors, vision tecnolo!y and a"tomation to allow for !reater yields 3C. In olin T"d!e's T"d!e's calc"lations, calc"lations, te te 4.33 ectares ectares of arable land per person are s"fficient to provide eno"! s"stenance= ;if te world's arable fields yielded like tose of East $n!lia, te 4.33 ectares tat now serves one person co"ld s"pport at least five.> Te area "nder c"ltivation c"ltivation co"ld, accordin! accordin! to some estimates, estimates, be more tan do"bled to :  billion ectares or o r more to"! nat"rally nat"rall y te best land is already alread y bein! c"ltivated-. iven iv en te acceler acceleratin atin! ! conver! conver!ence ence of devices devices and tecnica tecnicall applica application tionss te te $!e of onte%t, in te words of 0obert coble and el Israel-, we may see interestin! f"sions of te virt"al and te real in in terms of food and water s"pplies. s"pplies. In tis sense, we may may see a f"sion of te "rbanisin! instinct wit te a!rarian imp"lse tat as tended to be seen as te opposite of it – a f"sionlike dreamt of by act"ally +rank 5loyd 5las oyddirect 8ri!t. 8ri!t. It mi!t t"rn o"t one day, day, forane%ample, tatspace, playin! playin! a !ame +armville ramifications in terms of r"nnin! a!ric"lt"ral /"st as playin! a !ame like im ityE* or ivili)ation mi!t ave effects in terms of smart cities 3CF  and "rban plannin!. plannin!. It may also be possible possible tat at some some sta!e a certain proportion proportion of people people !et teir no"risment and s"stenance in pill form only wic may or may not release land from te  b"rden of providin! for ever advancin! n"mbers of "man  "man bein!s – to"! t o"! a!ain ere we may ma y be be stretcin! te de!ree to wic we want to rely on te artificial and te tecnolo!ical instead of te traditionally nat"ral if tere is a clear dicotomy between te two – after all, as (evin (elly as 3C1 3C3

Aasse Aasse <loo <loomfie mfield, ld, ;Te +ood +actory +actory>, >, ttp= ttp=JJw JJwww ww.ma .masse sseblo bloomf omfiel ield.c d.comJ omJpap papers ersJt Jte7fo e7food7f od7fact actory ory Df co"rs co"rsee tere tere is pr press ess"re "re to m move ove into into te o ote terr directi direction, on, b" b"tt move movemen ments ts str stress essin! in! v ve!e e!etar tarian ianism ism or or ve!anism mi!t prove to be s"ccessf"l in te lon!7term if widespread conscio"sness of te deeper iss"es is disseminated. $n e%ample ere is $le% 0enton, ;2lanet arnivore> 341:- wo points o"t tat G4L of te world's a!ric"lt"ral land is "sed for beef prod"ction. 3C: 5orna 6o 6owart, The )colo.ist , 1Ct &an"ary 341. 3C by 2leased Tere may be interes interestin! tin! ramificatio ramifi ns fr from om e%perime e%perimental ntal work into plants plants as sens sensors, ors, s"c as tat tat cond"ct cond"cted ed ttp=JJpleased7fpC.ed" ttp=JJpleased7fpC.ed" - cations 3CF D"r ccities ities will no do"bt do"bt !et !et a !reat deal smart smarter er wit wit in innovat novations ions s"c as @ia IInteli! nteli!ente' ente'ss i2avemen i2avement, t, wic wic is 8i7+i pavin! stones tat !ive free internet access to passers7by. passers7by. +ans of te band 2avement co"ld ten "se an i2avement to access son!s by 2avement.

 

  ar!"ed3CG, tere is a vast m"ltiplicity m"ltiplicity of e%amples wereby o"r tecnolo!ical tecnolo!ical systems ave evolved in anala!o"s ways ways to te rise and evol"tion evol"tion of species and ecosystems-. ecosystems-. It mi!t even be possible possible one day for "manity to become a"totropic or self7feedin!- in te same way tat cyanobacteria are, wic is one of te ma/or reasons for teir lon!evity and evol"tionary s"ccess over te co"rse of billions of years. rastic sit"ations sit"ations sometimes call for drastic meas"res, to"! te wider and more informed te debate on teir efficacy and etics te $t better if s"cc meas"res make sit"ations sit"atio ns worse rater tan ameliorate amel iorate tem. bot–a partic"larly moral and pra!matic pra!mati level tereco"ld is nat"rally a profo"nd debate abo"t pro!rammes of de7e%tinction 3CC  b"t, !iven te scale of te problem of depletion of te nat"ral world over te co"rse of cent"ries and millennia- it is a possible sol"tion to te problem and is a!ain a!ain at te very forefront of o"r know knowled!e. led!e. Tere may be severe severe limitations limitations 3C? on wat is possible  – te idea of brin!in! back mammots, for e%ample, as part of a 2leistocene 2ark wic mi!t be twinned wit te A"se"m of &"rassic Tecolo!y in "lver ity-, may be diffic"lt in terms of te ability to attain anytin! approacin! valid N$ for te animal 3C9. $n e%ample e%am ple tat may prove to work more fr"tif" fr"tif"lly lly is te 5a)ar"s 2ro/ect 2ro/ect in  in $"stralia wic "ses !enome tecnolo!y from te *niversity of Newcastle Newcastle involvin! te somatic cell transplantation transplantation of N$ tat ad been fro)en from fro! tiss"e for 4 years- to try to recreate te native !astric 3CG 3CC

+or e%am e%ample ple iin n (ev (evin in (elly (elly,, ;D"t of of on ontro trol= l= T Tee 0is 0isee of Ne Neo7< o7<iol iolo!i o!ical cal  ivi ivili) li)ati ation> on> 199 199-. -. Te cie cieff moral moral #"es #"estio tion, n, of co"rs co"rse, e, is tat tat of w wet eter er or no nott "mans "mans so"l so"ld d 'pl 'play ay od'. od'. i imil milar ar iss"e iss"ess are

raised by te possibility of te 'domestication of biotecnolo!y' in +reeman yson, ;$ Aany7olored lass= 0eflections on te 2lace of 5ife in te *niverse> 3414- wic mi!t mirror te domestication of, say, te "se of di!ital cameras in astronomy wic ave been instr"mental in e%ponential advances in o"r "nderstandin! and knowled!e. yson foresees te possibility of a sit"ation were ;domesticated biotecnolo!y biotecnolo!y...will ...will !ive "s an e%plosion of diversity of new livin! creat"res...new linea!es will proliferate to replace tose tat monoc"lt"re farmin! and deforestation ave destroyed. destroyed. esi!nin! !enomes will be a pe personal rsonal tin!, a new art form as creative as paintin! or sc"lpt"re>. Dne wonders terefore if everytin! from aisyworld to im Eart to te tama!oci to te mosi monster is an early part of s"c a wave of biotecnolo!y or weter we will r"n into limitations, bot  practical and etical, tat prevent s"c s"c an odyssey. odyssey. Emily $ntes, $ntes, ;+rankenstein's at> 341:- disc"sses disc"sses te ways tat tis field as already developed since rick and 8atso 8atson's n's discovery of te do"ble eli% str"ct"re of N$ in 19F: led indirectly to te 19C4s insertion of N$ N$ from Staphylococcus and te $frican clawed fro! into  )7coli, te 19?4s creation of trans!enic mice wit !enes from vir"ses and rabbits, and te 1994s insertion of /ellyfis fl"orescence !enes into ro"ndworms, rats and rabbits. rabbits. To Today day tere ave already been a lar!e n"mber of can!es can!es tat ave already appened in a field were a disc"ssion of limits and bo"ndaries is very important= strawberries and $rctic car ave been crossed, for instance, or, as disc"ssed by $dam 0"terford, ;reation= Te Dri!in of 5ifeJTe +"t"re of 5ife> 341:-, +reckles te !oat as been !enetically modified by te *niversity of *ta to  prod"ce milk tat as spider silk in it. &ames Aartin stresses stresses te need for safe!"ards, for instance to te creation of new pato!ens tat ave not e%isted in nat"re before and tat terefore do not ave resistances tat ave developed in oter species and or!anisms= te 191? fl" pandemic, for e%ample, killed more people tan te +irst 8orld 8orld 8ar, 8ar, and we ave to be mindf"l and vi!ilant over te potential for dan!ero"s innovations and accidents. $!ain, we face similar #"estions as te idea of en!ineerin! a post"man 'robo sapiens' of te e%tent and wisdom of o"r modifications of nat"ral processes. 8ilst selective breedin! of anima animals ls s"c as do!s ave involved "ma "man n control over evol"tionary processes, tese occ"rred in imprecise ways over te million year temporal frameworks of arwinian nat"ral selection. Today, Today, we face te possibility of takin! control of evol"tionary processes in rapidly acceleratin! timeframes and in a way tat is f"ndamentally different from te rest of istory 7 alto"! one important caveat ere, as tewart <rand points o"t in &on <rockman, ;Tis 8ill Aake Y Yo" o" marter> 3411- – is tat evol"tion and !ene swappin! at a microbial level occ"rs rapidly witin !enerations, i.e. tro"! 'ori)ontal !ene transfer', rater tan over te co"rse co"rse of many !enerations. till, beyond te #"estion of timeframes, tere is te iss"e of te fact tat evol"tion as occ"rred in a vast m"ltiplicity of forms on tis planet over fo"r billion years  – te #"estion is, to wat e%tent so"ld so"ld we try to take control of it as a process, process, or let it appen in its own wayO 3C? $t te time time of writi writin!, n!, tte e mos mostt s"ccess s"ccessf"l f"l aatte ttempt mpt in ttis is sspe pere re wa wass te 344: 344: effor effortt to brin! brin! a 2yrene 2yrenean an ibe% ibe%  back to e%istenceH te kid prod"ced prod"ced died after seven min"tes. eor!e "rc, ;0e!enesis> ;0e!enesis> 3413, p.1F4- ar!"es tat alto"! seven not on seem very lon! time, te first fli!t of te 8ri!t broters in 194: was twelve seconds, andmin"tes by 19G9mi!t we were teamoon. 3C9 Te atte attempt mpt to to brin! brin! t tee mam mammot mot  back back to life life ma may y or may may no nott be po possi ssible ble b"t b"t !oes !oes in ttand andem em wi wit t t tee wider wider idea of rewildin! te 2leistocene ecosystem, for e%ample in 2a"l Aartin, ;Tw ;Twili!t ili!t of te Aammots= Ice $!e E%tinctions and te 0ewildin! of $merica> 344F-.

 

   broodin! fro! wic as been e%tinct since 19?:, and is seen as a forer"nner for oter pro/ects involvin! oter e%tinct animals s"c as te Tasmanian ti!er or tylacine wic, accordin! to te entre for +ortean Poolo!y, may not be e%tinct after all-. $noter e%ample in tis field is te +ro)en Poo at an ie!o Poo3?4,  a 'biobank' tat contains fro)en tiss"e from more tan 1444 species, and may be able to preserve te nortern wite rinoceros, of wic tere are c"rrently only fo"r left tat are able to reprod"ce, all in captivity and all related related to eac oter. $noter pro/ect pro/ect in a similar vein is te +ro)en $rk at teas*niversity Nottin!am, Nottin!am, w ose inception was co"ld, in 199G. concept of a 'biobank' is interestin! a pysicalof entity sinc sincee onewose readin! te internet as aTe totality, totality , be seen as a kind of memebank, to "se 0icard awkins's 19CG concept or a ome for ideavir"ses, ideavir"ses, to "se et odin's-, wic can be "sed to foc"s and accelerate accelerate practical pro/ects in te real and non7 virt"al world world in a similar way to te "se of seeds seeds s"c as N$ code to preserve species. species. 6ere we face peraps o"r !reatest yper7ab"ndance yper7ab"ndance of all= tat of te n"mber of ideas tat we are !eneratin! and e%can!in!. $n optimistic optimistic view wo"ld ope tat te process of wat Aat Aattt 0idley calls 'idea se%' – te commin!lin! and cross7fertilisation of ideas – also leads to a kind of nat"ral selection were pro!ressive ideas o"twei! retro!rade ones. Dne e%ample m mi!t i!t be te notion tat war is te way to solve problems problems bein! replaced instead by better and better systems of '/aw /aw' 3?1. $noter wo"ld be te "tter inanity and st"pidity of ideas based on racial s"periority or inferiority and opef"lly teir lon!7term disappearance disappearance from conscio"sness- !iven o"r ever e%pandin! knowled!e and "nderstandin! of o"r deeper past and o"r collective roots from 5*$ te last "niversal common ancestor-. ancestor-. 8ile pysical reso"rces reso"rces mi!t be finite, ideas are, in practical terms terms,, infinite,  partic"larly tose tat emancipate te "man mind and so"l rater tan incarcerate it in false fa lse fears and pre/"dices. e7e%tinction pro!rammes are similar in a sense to te concept of rewildin!, in pro/ects s"c as te 2eace 2arks tat attempt to renew elepant ro"tes tro"!o"t $frica, as described for instance  by aroline +raser, ;0ewildin! ; 0ewildin! te 8orld= ispatces from te onservation 0evol"tion> 3414-. $!ain ere we face te sit"ation of ever !reater ab"ndance of information even on sit"ations of ever !reater scarcity scarcity and contraction. contraction. $n e%ample is te oo!le oo!le forest map tat sows can!e in forest cover aro"nd te world between between 3444 and 3413. 0ett $.<"tler $.<"tler and &eremy 6ance pointed pointed o"t in Aon!abay.com on 14 ecember 341: tat tis pro/ect opens te way to ever more acc"rate mappin! and a"ditin! of te scale of deforestation incl"din! !lobal i!7resol"tion deforestation trackin!. 0emote sensin! and te "se of systems s"c as te N$$ 5andsat pro!ramme of satellite ima!eryt of eart ave also been "sed to !a"!e te e%tent of te problem partic"larly in terms of te rapid depletion of te tropical rainforest, rainforest, wit te $ma)on $ma)on containin! sometin! in te order of 4L of world b"tterfly species, 1F44 or one tird of te world's bird species, and an estimated

$ndy 0oast, << <<,, 34t $"!"st 341:. Dr, at a more practical practical level, level, te contin"al contin"al replacemen replacementt of one ssyste ystem m by anoter anoter opef" opef"lly lly improve improvedd- version version of it tro"!o"t istory – s"c as te replacement of te "merian solid7disk weel by te E!yptian spoked weel tat was li!ter and more efficient. efficient. Dr te replacement of alcemy by its des descendent, cendent, cemistry "nless of co"rse somebody act"ally does mana!e to man"fact"re an element s"c as !old one day in te f"t"re, and syntesise a  post7cemistry discipline tat mi!t be called called alcemistry-. In terms of war, peraps if bellicosity bellicosity remains a flawed  part of "manity in f"t"re, and we do one day mana!e mana!e to create an interplanetary civilisation, maybe maybe we mi!t find a sol"tion to te problem of p"!nacity by o"tso"rcin! all tose wo act"ally want to fi!t pointless conflicts to a distant planet were tey co"ld freely fi!t eac oter, separate from everybody else wo wants to live in peace,

3?4 3?1

and constantly allplanet, te oter oterlly planets so tat teir conflicts spill over anywere else. monitored 5imited toby one warcivilisations mi!t ten on potentially potentia be eradicated from "man co"ld istorynot alto!eter alto!eter, , rater like polio mi!t be. t is isc"s c"ssed sed in 6 6arin arinii Na!re Na!renda nda and &ane &ane o"t o"twor wort, t, ;0e ;0efor forest estin! in! 5andsc 5andscape apes= s= 5ink 5inkin! in! 2atter 2attern n and and 2roce 2rocess> ss> 3449-

 

  11,344 tree species3?3- or, alternatively, alternatively, areas were te problem is bein! reversed and improved 3?:. Te <ritis $ntarctic "rvey ave "sed te i!itallobe 8orld@iew73 platform to assess wales from space. $!ain ere te #"estion is not merely te a!!re!ation of data and information, b"t ow we coose to respond to it. Te scale of deforestation deforestation co"ld lead to !reat pessimism or, alte alternatively rnatively,, !reat and noble resolve to s"pport pro/ects for reforestation s"c as te $rmenia Tree 2ro/ect, wic as planted more tan ,444,444 trees between 199 and 341, or te sceme by Nat"re onservancy to plant a billion trees in te endan!ered $tlantic +orest of <ra)il by 341F-.. Tere are also new developments in terms of te creation of more efficient forms of reforestati reforestation, on, an e%ample  bein! te t e process of plantin! plan tin! 'tree islands' pioneered p ioneered by 0akan Paawi and (aren 6oll. econdary forestation mi!t not ave te same species ric nat"re as o"r oldest and more establised forests,  b"t can elp to redress te overall balance in te lon! term and miti!ate te effects of o"r Easter Island7style istorical !lobal deforestation. Ter T eree is, teref terefore ore,, m"c m"c to be co conce ncerne rned d abo"t abo"t and and indee indeed d sadde saddened ned,, if one as a  biopiliac empaty for te nat"ral world- !iven te state, and on!oin! nat"re, of depletion. 6owever, tere are also several instances of s"ccess, ope and positivity, and te ma/or #"estion is, a!ain, ow we marsall te intelli!ence and ener!y of wat $l ore, ;Te +"t"re= i% rivers of lobal an!e> 341:- refers to as te 'lobal Aind' 3? or te '!lobal brain' described by 2eter 0"ssell in 19?3. $n e%ample is te first first on te list of top ten s"ccesses sin since ce te 0io eclaration eclaration of 1993 tat was prod"ced by te International Instit"te for "stainable evelopment in 3443 – te recovery of te o)one layer in o"r atmospere, protectin! "s from *@7< radiation, as a res"lt of international internati onal co7operation via te 19?C Aontreal 2rotocol- to !et rid of o)one7depletin! cemicals cemicals 3?F s"c as clorofl"orocarbons and alons . Te re!ene re!enerati ration on of te o)one o)one layer layer is by no means complete,, and it may take appro%imately complete appro%imately a cent"ry before it reaces its former concentration3?G, b"t it does stand as an e%emplar for oter pro/ects at re!eneration or preservation tat re#"ire wide international collaboration and co7operation. Te environmental spere is peraps te most clear and obvio"s e%ample of te wider #"estion of ow ab"ndance and scarcity operate today, today, and in partic"lar te #"estion of ow we "se yper7ab"ndance of information to ne!otiate problems of scarcity 3?C.   $ similar dynamic dynamic occ"rs occ"rs in 3?? te area of te depletion of pysical reso"rces , wic I also also to"ced to"ced on in my previo"s previo"s work. work. In 3?3

Te $ma $ma)on )on also also prod prod"ce "cess abo"t abo"t 34L of of te world world's 's o%y!en o%y!en ss"pp "pply ly,, as noted noted in arin arinaa 6oorn 6oorn and +r +rank ank 8esselin!, ;$ma)onia, 5andscape and pecie peciess Evol"tion= $ 5ook into te 2ast> 3411-. In a similar vein, teven &onson, ;8ere ood Ideas ome +rom>  - makes te observation tat, wilst only makin! "p one7tent of one

 per cent of te earts earts s"rface, coral reef is ome to sometin! in in te order of a #"arter of all marine species. D"r efforts at conservation clearly ave to be foc"sed on certain otspots of v"lnerability v"lnerabilit y and fec"ndity, and a!ain data a!!re!ation can take "s to new levels ere. 3?: In a simil similar ar vein, vein, we we ave ave seen seen te rise rise of of te p pres resent entati ation on of v vast ast amo" amo"nts nts o off data data in pro/e pro/ects cts s"c s"c aass te lobal +reswater <iodiversity $tlas as part of te E*7f"nded <io+res pro/ect. 3? Dr wat wat <londe <londea" a" an and d $lla $llard rd descr describe ibe as as te ''noo noosp spere ere',', an idea idea adapt adapted ed from from tat tat of 2ierre 2ierre Teil Teilar ard d de ardin. 3? 3?F F &on &on pic picer er,, ;<io ;<iodi dive vers rsit ity y> 344 3449, 9, p.1 p.1F: F:-3?G 3?G i! i!"r "rd" d"rr rei reips psso son, n, ;;0e 0est stora orati tion on Eco Ecolo lo!y !y>> 341 3411, 1, p p.1 .1??3?C Elon Elon A"sk A"sk desc describ ribes es te te int intern ernet et as be bein! in! akin akin to te te de devel velopm opment ent of of a kind of of 'nervo 'nervo"s "s syste system' m' for "ma "manity nity a similar metapor to 6..8ell's notion of te creation of a 'world brain' wic is ecoed in te tinkin! of Tomas 8. 8. Aalone today-. It can terefore provide information on wat is ab"ndant, ab"ndant, wat is scarce, and ow we can spread and sare te former and ow we can ameliorate and improve te latter. (evin (elly, (elly, ;8at Te Tecnolo!y cnolo!y 8 8ants> ants> 3414- sees o"r information web or tecni"m- as akin to a secondary and collective "man  brain, wit 1C4 #"adrillion comp"ter cips ;wired ;wired into one me!a7scale comp"tin! platform>, wit te te total n"mber of transistors in te network ;appro%imately te same si)e as te n"mber of ne"rons in yo"r brain> and te total n"mber of linksof ;abo"t e#"al to te at n"mber of te synapse links a!ain in yo"r brain>. Tere are, moreover, and more fractal patterns self7or!anisation work in tecni"m, mirrorin! or mimickin! nat"ralmore networks and  processes. 3?? Tere are, for instanc instance, e, aappro%i ppro%imately mately FF da databas tabases es aaro"nd ro"nd te world world tat can !ive !ive a company company s"bstit s"bstit"tes "tes for te materials it is "sin!, allowin! !reater fle%ibility of desi!n and man"fact"re wen certain materials become

 

  te conte%t of 0icard 6einber!'s 'peak everytin!' tere are, in te twili!t se!ment of te fossil f"el a!e, inescapable ways in wic we ave reaced "nprecedented levels of cons"mption and depletion of te reso"rces tat took millions of years to !enerate and crystallise on tis planet. Dnce a!ain we face te inescapable ramifications of pervasive e%ponentials= Aalcolm AcIntos, for e%ample, makes te salient observation tat since te middle of te 34 cent"ry te world as cons"med more reso"rces tan in all of previo"s "man istoryH &eremy 0ifkin asserts f"rter tat 8estern society, over te past two "ndred years, as cons"med more ener!y tan all oter civilisations civilisat ions in istory added to!eter to!eter.. Tat process process contin"es to accelerate, accelerate, so tat it is possible tat te amo"nt of reso"rce reso"rcess "sed between between 19F4 and 3444 mi!t be matced matced in only te first 34 tst 3?9 years of te 31  cent"ry . Tis Tis as ramific ramificatio ations ns in all sorts sorts of field fieldss were were we will will ave to en!ineer alternatives alternatives and sol"tions sol"tions tat take "s into f"ndamentally f"ndamentally new directions. directions. Dne case is te #"estion of "rani"m s"pplies wit its effect on te lon!evity of n"clear ener!y options, partic"larly partic"larly !iven te perspective of &an 8illem torm torm van 5ee"wen tat, wen te "rani"m73:F content of an ore is "nder 4.43L, more ener!y is re#"ired to mine and refine te "rani"m tan can be capt"red by a n"clear reactor. reactor. $ccordin! to a 344G st"dy by te Ener!y 8atc 8atc ro"p, even "nder te best7case 394 scenarios, "rani"m prod"ction will peak before 34F4 . $t te same time as tese comple% contractions, owever, a!ain we live in a time of "nprecedented access to information on tose reso"rce levels wic is te tr"e economic base on wic all o"r s"perstr"ct"res are constr"cted- and on scarcities – and are in a position, so"ld we coose to do so, to "se tat information e%plosion e%plosion to keep more acc"rate and detailed data on wat reso"rces are still available to "s, ow fast we are "sin! tem "p, and also – if possible – weter tere are oter so"rces of reso"rces s"c as asteroids wic mi!t can!e te ori)ons of wat is  possible in terms of overall reso"rce cons"mption. Tere is also, of co"rse, te #"estion of simplification of o"r lives in terms of te ob/ects tat we "se and te reso"rces tat we cons"me – an interestin! st"dy of families in 5os $n!eles between 3441 and 344F was cond"cted by te *5$ entre on te Everyday 5ives of +amilies and raises #"estions over te #"estion of ow many possessions we re#"ire, re#"ire, for wat p"rposes, p"rposes, and weter tey enric o"r lives or brin! !reater 391  press"res and stresses to tem . It is not necessarily necessarily likely tat tat "man bein!s will will transcend transcend te atom7based atom7bas ed economy of ob/ects b"t it is possible possible to live a life of almost complete or even monastic simplicity in terms of possessions and yet be yper7ab"ndantly wealty in terms of one's bit7based online economy of ideas and information. $ t" t"rn rn to towa wards rds simp simpli licit city y is evide evident nt in work workss s"c s"c as Aark Aark <oyle, <oyle, ;Te ;Te Aoneyl Aoneyless ess Aanifesto> 341:-, an embodiment of 5ao Pi's view tat ;e is ric wo as eno"!> and a modification modificat ion of te concept of a'vol"ntary 'vol"nta simplicity' simplicity'overt"rnin! created by 0icard re!! re!! in of 19:G. In some #"arters tis is referred to as '#"iet ry revol"tion', all te nostr"ms te world of 'conspic"o"s 'conspic" o"s cons"mption' to "se Torstein @eblen's @eblen's terminolo!y, terminolo!y, and one tat may lead to a post7 cons"me cons "merist rist transfo transformat rmation ion tat mi!t, mi!t, from te perspect perspective ive of 3499393  or beyond, make te cons"merist cons"meri st a!e look remarkably wastef"l wastef"l and, in istorical istorical terms, e%tremely e%tremely brief. Tis does not mean tat ine#"ality is not an iss"e of co"rse, partic"larly !iven te marked rises in meas"rements meas"rements s"c s"c  as te i ini ni coeffi coefficie cient nt in co"ntr co"ntrie iess like like te *( in recent recent decade decades. s. $s noted noted by Er Erik ik <ryn/olfsson <ryn/olf sson and $ndrew Ac$fee, ;Te econd Aacine $!e= $!e= 8ork, 8ork, 2ro!ress and 2rosperity 2rosperity in a Timee of <rilliant Tim <rilliant Tecnolo!ie Tecnolo!ies> s> 341- tere is a disparity between between te e%traordinary e%traordinary bo"nty of o"r di!ital tecnolo!y a!e on te one and and te spread of material wealt and income on te oter and. $!ain tis nat"rally as a !eopolitical aspect, b"t once more we face te ability to !ain better  pysically scarce. E%amples of reso"rces are Aa Aaterial terial onneion and Aaterial E%plorer E%plorer.. 3?9 3?9 Ac AcIn Into tos s fi! fi!"r "res es #"ot #"oted ed in Aa Aark rk 6end 6ender erso son, n, ;Te ;Te 31st ent"ry Environmental 0evol"tion> 3414, p.F:-. 394 391

isc"s is in "larly &e &eff ff  ie! ie!el and andifris  risare 6elder 6ellocked der,, ;Inve ;Investi in 0enewa 0enic ewable Ener!y Ene r!y> > 34 344?4?Tisc"ssed issed p partic artic"larly teelcase we locked intostin! ann!econom economic system syble stem tat enco"ra!es enco" ra!es "s to to b"y lar!e amo"nts amo"nts of ob/ects on financial credit as well as, implicitly and often not properly costed, ecolo!ical credit. 393 am"el am"el $le%an $le%ander der,, ;5ookin ;5ookin! ! <ac <ackwa kward rd from te te Year Year 34 3499= 99= Ec Eco)o o)oic ic 0ef 0eflec lectio tions ns on te +"t" +"t"re> re>,,  )arth  8urisprudence and )nvironmental 8ustice 8ustice 8ournal 3411

 

  and bett better er stati statisti stics cs on te matter matter,, wi wit t reso"r reso"rce cess s"c s"c as te te 8orld orld Ine#"a Ine#"alit lity y ata atabas basee on Ed"cation. Ed"cati on. +or some people, people, tere may be an imp"lse towards te kind of self7enfo self7enforced rced simplicity simplicity of material wealt and cons"mption tat was te imp"lse beind te monastic movements of te  pre7medieval and medieval periods to"!, parado%ically, many of tose movements in practice moved away from teir ascetic roots and became wealty and commercialist-. In parallel wit te pervasive problem of te e%tinction of species or te depletion of  pysical reso"rces tere is te #"estion of te e%tinction of lan!"a!es lan!"a!es and  and by implication of te c"lt"res tat are interrelated to tem-. $s noted in AIT Tecnolo!y 0eview on 1G &"ne 3414, tere are in te order of G444 to C444 lan!"a!es spoken in total, b"t two tirds of tem are endan!ered, and "nder te kind of press"re to s"rvive tat 6..8ells foresaw in ;$nticipations> 1941- t. Dver alf te world's pop"lation speak En!lis, 0"ssian, Aandarin, 6indi and panis wile tose lan!"a!es and te ne%t "ndred most pop"lar acco"nt for 9FL of all speakers. $!ain, owever, in tis spere te information revol"tion provides "s wit te tools and e#"ipment to arcive and preserve tose lan!"a!es tat are "nder treat, and in doin! so conserve te pl"rality and ricness of "man c"lt"re rater tan allowin! te world to descend into an effectively limited limited monoc"l mon oc"lt"re t"re.. $ key e%ample e%ample ere is te collaborat collaboration ion between between oo!le oo!le and several several lan!"a!e lan!"a!e  preservation or!anisations or!anisa tions wic created te Endan!ered Enda n!ered 5an!"a!es 2ro/ect. 2ro/ec t. $ similar enterprise is te 0osetta 2ro/ect c"rated by te 5on! Now +o"ndation wit a disk on te E"ropean pace $!ency's 0osetta probe-, wilst tere are several oter pro/ects s"c as Dmni!lot, te 8orld Dral 5iterat"re 2ro/ect r"n in collaboration between te "niversities of ambrid!e ambrid !e and Yale-, Yale-, te i!ital 6imalaya 6imalaya 2ro/ect, te Endan!ered Endan!ered 5an!"a!es $rcive at D$, ok"mentation bedroter pracen D<E- or Tim <rookes's Endan!ered $lpabets 2ro/ect wic consists of an e%ibition of over 34 carvin!s of endan!ered scripts on boards of @ermont maple. mapl e. &essica &essica 6ar/o 6ar/o as been workin! workin! on te creation creation of a *nicode *nicode alpabet alpabet system system to elp  preserve te endan!ered nort $merican Indian lan!"a!e of Dsa!e. Tis as an eco of te description by ris $nderson of a ;massively parallel c"lt"re> tat is formed into ;millions of microc"lt"res> or ;tribal eddies> 39:.   Te same prin principl ciplee ar!"ably ar!"ably applies applies to te preservat preservation ion of vocab"lary in more more establised establised or indeed e!emonic lan!"a!es. lan!"a!es. In a world of rapid information information e%can!e tere is of co"rse space for te e%istence of a simplified lin!"istic system s"c as &ean7 2a"l Nerriere's Nerriere's lobis. $t te same time, owever, owever, te inter internet net a!e provides "s wit te ability to collate lan!"a!es lan!"a!es in a way tat wo"ld ave asto"nded even r.&onson r.&onson and, in te case of En!lis, to preserve te vast and e%traordinary preponderance of words and synonyms tat is its distinctive allmark, wit te lobal 5an!"a!e Aonitor estimatin! a total of 1,41:,91: in &an"ary 3413 39. 6ere a!ain faceofanoter frontier yper7ab"ndance – te;Netymolo!y= arena of neolo!isms tat are  bein! created as a we res"lt te di!ital eraofitself. Tom atfield, +rom $pps to t

*NE *NED D estima estimate te tat tat alf alf of te tot total al n n"mb "mber er of of world world lan lan!"a !"a!es !es tod today ay w will ill be e%t e%tinc inctt by te end of tis tis cent"ry. $!ain, we face te #"estion of wat narratives we create, wat o"r priorities are, and wat actions we take cent"ry. to address s"c a problem. 39 39: : ri riss $nd $nder erso son, n, ;;T Tee 5on! 5on! Tai Tail> l> 34 344G 4G,, p.1? p.1?3339 $lto" $lto"! ! contr controve oversi rsial, al, te te 5 5A A calc"l calc"l"s "s s sowe owed d te mill million iont t wo word rd tres tresol old d bei bein! n! passe passed d on 14t &"ne 3449, wit abo"t 1F new words bein! created every day. $t tis rate, Zeveryword mi!t ave #"ite a /ob on teir ands, since tey plan to tweet every word in te En!lis lan!"a!e as of 1C t &an"ary 341 tey ad made 143,444 tweets-. I can't personally elp b"t tink tat tis amo"nt amo"nt "nderrates te total lin!"istic sprawl of te En!lis En!lis lan!"a!e, partic"larly wen te ever acceleratin! worlds of slan! are factored in, wit compendia bein! compiled s"c as te pro/ect by te $nti7<"llyin! $lliance and software company Impero to create an on!oin! pro!ram tat scans online activity in scools for words or acronyms deemed offensive in order to elp teacers keep abreast of te merc"rial flows of te lan!"a!e. $ccordin! to $le%ander 2etersen, &oel &oel Tenenba"m Tenenba"m et al, ;tatistical 5aws overnin! +l"ct"ations in 8ord *se +rom 8ord <irt to 8ord eat>, !ature 3413-, "sed oo!le N!ram data to sow tat En!lis te Tey birt also rate of new words is act"ally slowin! is still abo"t ?F44wit words per year-, b"t te deat rate in is increasin!. identify a 'tippin! point' in te lifeb"t cycle of new words, a moment ro"!ly :4 to F4 years after teir birt were tey eiter move into te lon!7term le%icon or disappear. Tey also ar!"e tat words tat are born today tend to become more pop"lar tan new words "sed to !et, peraps beca"se tey describe !en"inely new penomena s"c as 'i2od' or 'Twitter'. 'Twitter'.

 

  Pombies> 341:- e%plores te efflorescence of new terms and new words 39F. $noter $noter lin!"istic lin!"istic facet of o"r era is te rise of online translation in te a!e of 5e%icool, a site wic a!!re!ates to!eter links to over CF44 online dictionaries and !lossaries between different world lan!"a!es. $lto"! tey are a lon! way from te advanced skills and n"ances of professional translators, tools s"c s"c  as <abe <abell +i +is s or oo!l oo!lee Transl ranslate ate39G  ave elped to fost foster er and accelerate accelerate internatio international nal 39C connections connectio ns and comm"nication comm"nication . Tey ave ccertainly ertainly advanced advanced far beyond beyond te pessimistic pessimistic 19GF assessment assessm ent by a committee of te * National $ $cademy cademy of ciences tat ;tere is no immediate or  predictable prospect of "sef"l "sef" l macine macin e translation.> tra nslation.> 39?  $!!re!ations $!!re!ations of free ebooks ebooks399 across a vast n"mber of different lan!"a!es lan!"a!es and scemes s"c as te 2oly!lot 2ro/ect elp to create te potential for a !olden a!e of translation and interconnection of te%ts and ideas across lan!"a!es, wic may also potentially ave te effect of b"ildin! brid!es between c"lt"res and so peraps, ideally, limitin! international internati onal conflicts and disp"tes a lar!e n"mber of wic, tro"!o"t istory, istory, ave occ"rred in  part tro"! mis"nderstandin!s mis" nderstandin!s o off different lin!"istic systems and c"lt"ral c"lt"r al mores-. $lto"! online translation services ave often been derided, wit many e%amples of abs"rd translations bein! sared ro"nd for entertainment entertainment and am"sement val"e, it is conceivable to ima!ine a sit"ation sit"ation in te near f"t"re were te b"lk of translations are performed by ever more acc"rate comp"ter processes. $!ain ere we face te #"estion of red"ndancy= te role of translator mi!t ten not be red"ndant  b"t, if we are intelli!ent abo"t it, be transm"ted into a i!er order of craftsmansip and inspirational retinkin! and reconcept"alisation of te%ts wit comp"ters avin! done te b"lk of te "nderlyin! work. $n efflorescence of free lin!"istic reso"rces s"c as "olin!o, invented by 5"is von $n wo also created te re$2T6$ re$2T6$ system system:44 tat ma%imises te effectiveness of crowds by "sin! a!!re!ations a!!re!ati ons of small m"ndane tasks to f"lfill te !oal of di!itisin! di!itisin! books-, accelerate te potential e%can!es between between speakers of different different world lan!"a!es. 6yper7poly!lot 6yper7poly!lotism ism may become ever more prevalent, s"c as te case of Tim oner, wo as been learnin! lan!"a!es since e was 1: and, as of 341:, speaks speaks sometin! sometin! in te order of twenty. twenty. 0e!ions s"c as as aarland in ermany ermany :41 may become officially officially bilin!"al  or m"ltilin!"al as a res"lt of policies tat stress te capacity to comm"nicate in more tan one lan!"a!e, peraps alterin! te nat"re of te nation7state itself. Indeed, so"ld we coose to make it so, we may reac a point were a person wo only comm"nicates in one lan!"a!e becomes sometin! of a rarity or an eccentric. +"rtermore, +"rterm ore, we may see te intermesin! intermesin! of lin!"istic systems. systems. Dne primary e%ample e%ample is te palimpsest nat"re of &apanese, wit different different elements laid like brocade "pon eac oter – wit te main writin! system, kan/i, bein! derived from inese b"t co7e%istin! wit a specifically &apanese syllabary ira!ana- and one for words loaned in from oter lan!"a!es katakana- alon! 39F

$!ain $!ain ere ere we are are faced faced wit wit tte e ee%is %isten tence ce of yp yper7 er7ab" ab"nda ndance nce.. $n inter interest estin! in! e%am e%ample ple is is te neol neolo!i o!ism sm 'snowclone' wic was created in tandem by 5an!"a!e 5o!'s eoffrey 2"ll"m and $!orapilia's len 8itman in &an"ary 344 for a ;m"lti7"se, c"stomi)able, instantly reco!ni)able, time7worn, #"oted or mis#"oted prase or sentence tat can be "sed "sed in an entirely open array of different variants by la la)y )y /o"rnalists and writers.> atfield  points o"t tat a oo!le searc on 'snowclones' now yields over 144,444 res"lts, res"lts, incl"din! a 'snowclone' da database tabase of five years' wort of dedicated di!ital spottin!. spottin!. &"st as one co"ld spend one' one'ss life immersed in information abo"t 'information overload', so one co"ld immerse one's life in a sin!le neolo!ism of o"r a!e s"c as 'snowclone'. 39G Tere Tere are are f" f"rte rterr evol" evol"tio tions ns in e%iste e%istence nce er ere, e, s" s"c c as as &a &ames mes Tr Trimb imble' le'ss E"rope E"ropean an word translator  wic  wic  provides a map of words across E"rope for cross7comparisons. cross7comparisons. 39C Aica Aicael el ronin, ronin, ;Tra ;Translat nslation ion iin n te i!it i!ital al $!e> 3413, p.:- even ar!"es ar!"es tat tat ;te present present a!e, a!e, wic wic is often often referred to as te information a!e wit its corollar corollary y, te knowled!e society, so"ld more properly be termed te translation a!e>. Ilan tavans of 0estless <ooks <ooks mi!t disa!ree ere, since e poin points ts o"t tat in in te early 3414s only :L of books p"blised in te *$ are translations, b"t is m"ltilin!"al book p"blisin! plans mi!t make a difference in wat e sees as a certain lin!"istic ins"larity in tat partic"lar co"ntry. 39? 399 :44

isc"s is a" rof roff, f, .ebook.com.a"JmorefreebooksJfreem"ltilin!"albooks.tm ;T ;Tee Intell Intelli!e i!ent nt 8 8eb= eb= e earc arc, , smart smart al!o al!orit ritms ms and and bi! data data>> 341341-.. eec"ssed , fosed r insiin tnana"tam ce, tam ttp=JJwww.ebook.com.a"JmorefreebooksJfreem"ltilin!"albooks ttp=JJwww .tm Te "se "se of crowd crowd in intel telli! li!enc encee in tis tis e%a e%ampl mplee is simil similar ar to t tee "se of of crow crowd d intelli! intelli!enc encee in syste systems ms s"c s"c as pamnet or 0a)or tat "se crowd votes to determine weter a messa!e is spam or not. :41 ;erma ;erman n re!io re!ion no off aar aarlan land dm move ovess ttowa owards rds bil bilin! in!"al "alism ism>, >, << News, News, 31st &an"ary 341

 

  wit a pervasiv wit pervasivee amo"nt of En!lis En!lis roma/i-. roma/i-. $n interesti interestin! n! bet wo"ld wo"ld be ow many forms forms of writin! &apanese &apanese as by, by, say, say, 3144 or 3F44 or :444. ome lan!"a!es lan!"a!es mi!t coose to adapt to an intermin!lin! intermi n!lin! ca"sed by !reater interconnection interconnection across te world by en!ineerin! a similar babelian  prof"sion of codes, scripts and r"nes tat reflect inflows from oter lin!"istic systems. Dters mi!t stick to one partic"lar partic"lar alpabet alpabet or syllabary syllabary instead. Tere is likely likely to be a f"rter process of transm"tation in te rise of forms s"c as 6in!lis wic is not a lan!"a!e created for te tennis  player Aartina 6in!is, b"t instead a macaronic macaron ic lan!"a!e lan! "a!e formed fo rmed of f"sed intermi%t"res of En!lis, En!lis , 6indi, 2"n/abi and oter lan!"a!es in India-. $!ain, ere, te #"estion of lan!"a!e is connected to te matematical revol"tion, since oo!le oo! le Translate ranslate en!ineers en!ineers ave e%plored e%plored te problem problem of translat translation ion tro"! tro"! te field field of vector vector :43 space  matemati  matematics. cs. 6ere we also see a potential potential transition transition in te field of literat"re itself, itself, wit a f"sion of .2.now's two c"lt"res in te form of a literary matematics o"tlined, for e%ample, by ("rt @onne!"t in is work ;+l"ct"ations <etween ood and Evil in imple Tales> or in te D"lipo movement. movemen t. 8e may even see a meltin! down of s"c binary distin distinctions ctions between art and science, !iven te maelstrom maelstrom of te%ts, tat was fore foreseen seen by 8alter 8alter <en/amin. <en/amin. Aeanwile Aeanwile we also face te ab"ndance of lin!"istic systems tat ave been developed artificially, s"c as 0DI5$ a lan!"a!e created for te p"rpose of comm"nicatin! wit robots, wic as been developed by te Eindoven *niversity of Tecnolo!y "nder a creative commons license-, (lin!on, Tamarian, imlis, 6"ttese and Na'vi Na'vi as well well as interna internation tionalis alistt or alt alterna ernativ tivee lan!"a!e lan!"a!ess s"c s"c as Esperan Esperanto, to, 5o/ban and Interlin!"a. Interlin! "a. 2eraps, a!ain, a!ain, o"r efforts efforts at translation today between between terrestrial terrestrial lan!"a!es lan!"a!es are in a sense a foresadowin! or practice for te kind of translation tat wo"ld be needed across !reater stretces of space and time, s"c as between a settlement on T Te%as7si)e e%as7si)ed d eres and people livin! in Te%as. 2olyc"lt"re 2olyc"l t"re in "man terms is, terefore, as fec"nd and fertile as polyc"lt"re polyc"lt"re in a!ric"lt"ral a!ric"lt"ral :4: terms . $n interestin! interestin! e%ample ere is te <ritis 5ibrary's Endan!e Endan!ered red $r $rcives cives pro/ect, wic wic sares similar aims as *NED's 'Te Aemory of te 8orld' 2ro!ramme and seeks to stim"late action act ion to safe!" safe!"ard ard te worl world's d's doc"m doc"ment entary ary erit erita!e a!e.. Initi Initiati atives ves at conser conservat vatio ion n incl"d incl"dee doc"mentation of te lon! istorical reso"rces eld in Timb"kt" in Aali or a /oint pro/ect by te *niversity *niversi ty of @ienna @ienna and te $"strian $cademy of ciences ciences to identify, identify, catalo!"e catalo!"e and poto!rap :?,444 dama!ed leaves from <"ddist man"scripts in te 6imalayan monastery of Tabo near te  border of India and ina. in a. $n enterprise s"c as *daip"ir=a *daip "ir=a learnin! city aims to sec"re te lon!7 term patrimony patrimony of crafts and skills in te city in 0a/astan in India and ens"re tat tey are not lost as a res"lt of economic and c"lt"ral !lobalisation and interconnection. $!ain, ere te ability to a!!re!ate yper7ab"ndant information provides opport"nities for amelioration of sit"ations amelioration sit"ations tat co"ld be improved. $noter $noter e%ample is in te field of international international writers wose wose work leads to tem bein! bein! s"ppressed, censored censored and /ailed. /ailed. Dr!anisations Dr!anisations s"c as En!lis 2EN, I+E, $rticle 19, lobal @oices, 0eporters sans frontieres, te ommittee to 2rotect &o"rnalists and ;Inde% on ensorsip> ma!a)ine wo campai!n for freedom of e%pression for worldwide writers can benefit from te novel ways in wic information is bein! collated and e%ibited.. Dne co"ld ima!ine, e%ibited ima!ine, for instance, instance, a kind of online online airport depart"res depart"res board of of writers aro"nd te world wit information on te form of s"ppression tey are "nder!oin! and links to actions tat co"ld be taken, for instance mass letter or email writin! campai!ns, to allow tem to attain teir liberty – and /oin e%amples from te first part of te 31 cent"ry s"c as Aicel (ilo in yria in 3449, 5" en!son! in ina in 3411, 6"an! &in#"i in ina in 3411, @ladimir Neklyaev in <elar"s in 341:, $yse <erktay in T"rkey in 341: and Nasrin oto"de in 341:.

:43 :43 ee ee te te artic article le in te te A AIT IT Tecn ecnol olo!y o!y 0evi 0eview ew,, 3F 3Ft eptember 341:. :4: Te two two are, of co co"rs "rse, e, interc interconn onnect ected, ed, wi wit t an e%ampl e%amplee bein! bein! te Native Native eed eedsJ sJE$0 E$06 6 pro/ec pro/ect, t, insti! insti!ate ated d  by elders of te Toondo Toondo D'odam Nation of Native $mericans wic as bro"! bro"!tt certain varieties of crops back from te brink of e%tinction and !rows over 3444 crop species.

 

  Te emer!ence of yper7literacyst  as a res"lt res"lt of te prof"sion prof"sion of easily availabl availablee te%ts is a  process tat is, of co"rse, resapin! te process of writin! as m"c as tat of readin!. omp"terisation as ad, and is avin!, a radical effect "pon literat"re and "pon literary criticism wilst te field of di!ital "manities as evolved far beyond early e%periments s"c as 0oberto <"sa's  *nde4 Thomisticus( a lemmatised inde% of te work of Tomas $#"inas :4. $s an e%ample, e%ample, Aar/orie 2erloff, ;*nori!inal eni"s> 3414- ar!"es tat te 0omantic idea of te isolated !eni"s is o"tdated, and tat instead !eni"s now resides in te ability to master information flows bot in  passive terms o"r reception of tem- and in active terms o"r dissemination of tem- !iven te yper7interte%t"ality yper7interte%t"alit y at work today. Indeed, !iven te yper7ab"ndance of te%ts and information, it may be ar!"ed tat in some senses it is more diffic"lt to even be!in writin! in te first placeH were once a writer s"c as Eric $"erbac co"ld prod"ce a work s"c as ;Aimesis> 19F:- based on a limited stock of works in is library in Istanb"l, today tat limited stock of works as e%panded in all directions directions on an e%ponential e%ponential basis. In is epilo!"e, epilo!"e, e writes tat tat if e ad ad access to more works, e mi!t never never ave started writin! at all. $ post7"tenbe post7"tenber!ian r!ian pen or word processorprocessormi!t !et movin! a little slower in te first place tan a "tenber!ian one, b"t tat does not mean tat it does not write as m"c, as vol"bly, or as penetratin!ly. 6arold <loom's idea of te an%iety of infl"ence 19C:-, terefore, may also be e%a!!erated today= ow can we be!in writin! a poem wen we ave only di!ested a mere fraction of o"r antecedentsO antecedent sO Dn te oter and, owever owever,, a!ain we face te sit"ation sit"ation were it is important important to be optimistic rater tan pessimistic abo"t te nat"re of te post7"tenber!ian !ala%y tat we live in. 8e may mo"rn te more limited scope and str"ct"res of te "tenber!ian !ala%y tat preceded it,  b"t o"r mo"rnin! is an "nnecessary reaction tat is eclipsed by optimistic celebration of te opport"n oppo rt"nitie itiess tat are now available available.. 8e can now !ain inspirat inspiration ion from s"c a vast panoply panoply of so"rces tat te very nat"re of o"r ima!ination can flo"ris in ways tat are diffic"lt to predict b"t en/oyable to anticipate. anticipate. Indeed, tis can can lead to wat &onatan 5etem 5etem mi!t call call an 'ecstasy of infl"ence' created by wat 0osalind $bramson described as te 'ecstasy of infotopia- rater tan an an%iety.. Tis is certainly te case in an ever e%pandin! cosmo an%iety cosmoss of treas"re troves of arcived and di!itised poetry, s"c as te 2oetry $rcive, te 2oetry +o"ndation, 2enno"nd, te $cademy of $merican $merica n 2oets, 2oem6"nter, 2oem6"nter, te 5ondon o"tbank 2oetry 5ibrary's 5ibrary's list of online ma!a)ines, te Electronic Electro nic 2oetry enter, enter, 0on illiman's illiman's links directory, directory, te adwyck76ealey adwyck76ealey arcive, and so on. Indeed, we now face te potential of "sin! a tablet to access an artefact s"c as te c"neiform "merian tablet datin! from at least ,444 years a!o and "nearted in te late 1??4s in Nipp"rwic is to"!t to be te earliest e%tant poem in te world:4F. Te possibilities of te manifestation of te idea of te esamtk"nstwerk, or 'total work of art', ave been e%tended in te era of wat $le%andr $le%andr kidan describes describes as ;poetry in te a!e of total comm"nication>. comm"ni cation>. It mi!t one day even be prod"ced by robots robots or macines, !i !iven ven e%periments e%periments s"c as te trainin! trainin! of wift(ey's wift(ey's macine lan!"a!e software, software, called '+l"ency', '+l"ency', to learn te style of akespearean sonnets. Tee yper T yperte te%t %t"al "al era as seen seen t tee ori)o ori)ons ns of liter literat" at"re re e%pand e%panded ed in ways ways tat tat were were foresad fore sadowed owed by a lit literary erary movemen movementt s"c as D"lipo. D"lipo. $s an e%ample, e%ample, as noted noted by (ennet (ennet oldsmit, ;*ncreative 8ritin!= Aana!in! 5an!"a!e in te i!ital $!e>  -, tere are n"mero"s web versions versions of 0aymon 0aymond d B"enea" B"enea"s 19G1 and ;labori ;laborio"sl o"sly y and7con and7constr" str"cted cted>>- ;6"ndre ;6"ndred d To"sand <illion 2oems>, written written in con/"nction wit te matematician +rancois le 5ionnais. +or oldsmit, te #"estion is not so m"c one of te ori!inal prod"ction of ideas and content, b"t st

arl arl 0a 0asc scke, ke, ;i ;i!it !ital al 0 0evo evol"t l"tion ion and te om omin! in! of te te 2ost 2ostmod modern ern *niver *niversity sity>> ar ar!"e !"ess t tat at tte e e%pa e%pansi nsion on o off ori)ons of knowled!e in all directions can be described as 'yper7knowled!e' and is akin to yperspace in te post7

 Newtonian and ;e%tends ;e %tends te te development directions andofdimensions of knowle knowled!e d!e perissemarkedly in ways "nanticipate "nanticipated d even a !enerationcosmolo!y a!o.> 6e also foresees deve lopment te 'yper"niversity' wic marke dly different from te  pre7e%istin! ;pysical "niversity>. "niversity>. :4 $s disc" disc"sse ssed d in Aatte Aattew w &oc &ocker kers, s, ;A ;Aacr acroan oanaly alysis sis== i!i i!ital tal A Aet etods ods and and 5it 5itera erary ry 6istory 6istory>> 341:-. 341:-. :4F It bein bein!s !s ;<ri ;<ride! de!roo room, m, dear dear to my eart, eart, oo oodly dly is yo"r yo"r bea" bea"ty ty,, oney oneyswe sweet> et>..

 

  instead te callen!e is tat of reframin! and, implicitly, filtration, since wat is left o"t is as importantt as wat is incl"ded-= ;if all lan!"a!e can be transformed into poetry by merely reframin! importan  – an e%citin! possibility – ten se wo reframes words in te most car!ed and convincin! way will be /"d!ed te best.> In s"c an environment, te potential for new kinds of cross7fertilisations tat lead to new forms of te%t"ality is clearly clearly enormo"s. $n e%ample ere is ;yclonopedia> ;yclonopedia> by 0e)a Ne!arestani Ne!arestani wic is an early incarnation of a !enre tat is described as 'teory7fiction'. Tere are even movements s"c as +larf wic are based on te Mworst oo!le searc res"lts. It remains to be seen weter or not te entire idea of a 'canon' is re7establised as a res"lt of access to s"c a wide variety of a"tors, or weter or not a 'canon' will instead remain intact b"t will incl"de people wo were not previo"sly /"d!ed /"d!ed to be part of it b"t wo are rediscovered rediscovered as a res"lt of free access to teir work. In te political spere, we live in a time were dept of analysis analysis of different different political parties and !ro"ps and teir ideolo!ies is advancin! in ways tat are ar!"ably analo!o"s to te discovery of te fo"r letter letter alpabet alpabet and do"ble do"ble eli% system system of N$. N$. $ key e%ample e%ample ere is te 2oliti 2olitical cal ompass website wic "ses a !rid of two a%es based on te 5eft and te 0i!t on te one and datin! back at least as far as seatin! arran!ements in te parliament after te +renc 0evol"tion  between 1C?9 and 1C99- and, on te oter and, between te a"toritarian a"toritar ian and libertarian imp"lses. imp" lses. Tis as transformed te analysis of political positions and ideas in a way tat is similar to earlier vis"al representations s"c as te Nolan cart or te @osem cart. $!ain, ere, we face te potential for vast improvements in te nat"re of o"r p"blic disco"rse and policy7makin!, so"ld we coose to "se te e%plosion of so"rces as a repository from wic to e%tract and cross7fertilise ideas. Dne interestin! perspective on te #"estion of te relationsip between te scarce and te ab"ndant is provided by 8orldwatc Instit"te, ;tate of te 8orld 341:= Is "stainability till 2ossibleO> 341:- wo p"t forward te view tat ;time is in most ways te scarcest reso"rce of all>. $ pervasive pervasive sense tat caracterises caracterises te very essence and so"l of te period in wic we live is tat of acceleration= as $my &o (im, ;omm"nity ;omm"nity <"ildin! on te 8eb> 8eb> 3444- encaps"lates encaps"lates it= ;Time ;Time  passes #"ickly on te Net. ocial dynamics tat take monts and years to evolve in te pysical world can emer!e in a matter of days and weeks on te 8eb – especially wen a comm"nity  becomes ot.> In a world of o f e%ponentials te pace of can!e is one driven by radical r adical accelerations= accelerat ions= as Tomas +riedman, ;Te 8orld is +lat>  - points o"t, in 344F ;+acebook didn't e%ist for most  people, Twitter Twitter was still a so"nd,  was a parkin! space, and 'kype' 'k ype' was a typo.> Te e%perience of temporal can!e is s"mmed "p by b y 0icard +oster, +oster, ;+"t"re Ainds> 3414- wo s"!!ests tat ;to me it feels as if time itself is bein! compressed.> $!ain ere we face one of te most pervasive aspects of te can!es tat are bein! bro"!t  by o"r transition to a post7"tenber!ian a!e of comm"nication= te relationsip between te past, te present and te f"t"re. 2a"l +ord, ;Netfli% ;Netfli% and oo!le <ooks <ooks $re <l"rrin! <l"rrin! te 5ine <etween <etween 2ast and 2resent>, ired   +ebr"ary +ebr"ary 341- made te observation tat te internet era is prod"cin! ever more more content from te past and presentin presentin! ! it in te 'eternal 'eternal present' present' of internet internet time. time. $ doc"ment from te +irst 8orld 8ar, for e%ample a diary written by a soldier tat as been di!itised as part of te National $rcives $rcives di!itisation di!itisation pro!ramme wic went live in &an"ary 341, e%ists in te same present present moment as 2a"l +ord's article. article. Te two can be bro"!t bro"!t to a screen in te same moment by anyone on te planet wit an internet connection connection and te prod"ction of a copy does not in any way lose #"ality, "nlike te process of copyin! in te analo!"e era. +ormerly, tey wo"ld ave e%isted in partic"lar moments in space and time based on teir  paper manifestations – te +ord article bein! reprod"ced a relatively lar!e n"mber of times !iven

 

  te fr"its of "tenber!ian reprod"ction, wilst te soldier's diary wo"ld ave only e%isted in one form in one partic"lar location in a m"se"m. m"se"m. +ord sees tis as radically can!in! te nat"re of time and istorical time itself= ;"ddenly we find o"rselves livin! in an odd sort of asymptote, as o"r  past !ets closer and closer to te t e present pre sent and te line lin e separatin! s eparatin! o"r now from o"r then dissolves.> In te m"sical spere, e ar!"es tat fasionability in m"sic erodes, ;beca"se new son!s sit on te same self as son!s recorded recorded five, 3F, and FF years a!o, al alll of tem waitin! to be discov discovered. ered. In tis eternal present, everytin! can be made contemporary.> Tere are many oter areas were similar patterns of yper7ab"ndance and yper7scarcity are at work, and tese a!ain provide te topo!rapy of te cent"ry and beyond – te callen!es callen!es tat m"st be faced, and te frontier frontierss and areas of knowled!e were we m"st make new innovations and  pro!ressions. 0icard ilbert and $ntony 2earl, ;Transport 0evol"tions= Aovin! 2eople and +rei!t 8ito"t Dil> 341:- depict a world in wic one of te most pressin! and important callen!es is te process of re7en!ineerin! transport and mobility to a post7oil era wen we come to te end of te 'petrole"m interval', wic is or rater, peraps, was- a very sort period in "man and !eolo!ical istory as a wole :4G. $cc $ccordi ordin! n! to tem, tem, c"rrently c"rrently aro"nd aro"nd 9FL of o"r transpor transportt systems are fo"nded on oil weter petrol or diesel f"el-. Tere is also te #"estion, Tere #"estion, in terms terms of attention attention,, of wat we don't foc"s foc"s on. 6ere 6ere te researc by an imons, ;Te Invisible orilla>  - is interestin! and leads to te penomenon of ;inattentional blindness>.

:4G 9FLilber il bertte t and 2 2ear earl not note e tat tat mor more e tan ta8 n ar. F4L o off all te tevary oil oil ever eve con a s been been "se "sed d since since 19?G, 19!iven ?G, and and ov er since end oflte econd 8orld Estimates andr cons"m te s"med fieldedis as nat"rally contentio"s teover key role of oil in te creation of o"r economy and c"lt"re to date, b"t accordin! to researcers at te *niversity of *ppsala in weden te !lobal oil peak may ave occ"rred in 3413, despite later developments in terms of eavy oil ciefly prod"ced from tar sands- and deepwater oil ciefly in te "lf of Ae%ico and te o"t $tlantic.