Orange County Housing Report (3/26/13)

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The Orange County Housing Report
Provided by: Steve & Karen Hakola, Hakola & Associates 877-4-HAKOLA, (949) 661-7653, [email protected], www. HAKOLAS.COM Regency Real Estate Brokers, Inc. , DRE# 00604415, 00610273

Orange County Housing Report: When Will Somebody Flip the Switch?
It is just a matter of time before many more sellers place their homes on the market. Active Inventory: In the past month, the active inventory has dropped by 89 homes.

March 2013

The inventory sits at an unprecedentedly low level and still managed to shed an additional 54 homes in the past two weeks. It now totals 3,183, just 22 more homes than the low reached at the very beginning of the year (the all-time low since Reports On Housing started tracking the inventory back in 2004). A year ago the inventory was at 6,943 homes. The inventory is off to such an anemic start because the number of short sales and foreclosures coming on the market thus far this year has plummeted compared to 2012. The numbers are staggering. Short sales and foreclosures placed on the market through today are down 63% compared to the same time period last year. That translates to 2,035 fewer distressed sales on the market. There are 943 additional homeowners with equity that came on the market compared to last year, 18% more. But, compare that to 2005, the most recent healthy real estate market, and the difference is remarkable. So far this year there have been 6,299 homeowners with equity place their homes on the market; yet, in 2005, there were 10,023. With very little on the market and demand through the roof, home values are appreciating rapidly. Many professionals feel that the swift appreciation is too fast too soon. They fail to realize that the housing market dropped nearly 40% in value. Homeowners sat on the sideline and watched their equity positions drop significantly. Today, these same homeowners do not want to move until they recoup enough equity to make listing and selling palatable. So, far the number of equity sellers is up, but there is plenty of room for improvement. It is as if everybody is waiting for a green light announcing that they have recovered enough equity to proceed. As the general public and homeowners come to the realization that they have already achieved massive appreciation, more homes will be placed onto the market. When will the average “Joe” on the street finally figure this out? At the present pace of sales, hot demand and low inventory, there is a strong chance that everybody will collectively figure it out this summer. It will be as if somebody hit the "ON" switch. It still will not be enough to satisfy the insatiable appetite of buyers, but it will be better than where inventory and demand presently sit. Demand: Demand has not changed in the past month. In the past month, demand, the number of new pending sales over the past month, decreased by a negligible 7 homes, and now totals 2,880. Compared to last year at this time, there are 858 fewer pending sales today. Until the equity seller switch is turned “on,” we can expect demand to remain muted as buyers collectively wait for more, fresh inventory. The housing market is in transition right now, moving from a bank controlled distressed marketplace to a normal market fueled by homeowners with equity in their homes. Distressed Breakdown: the distressed inventory has dropped by a third over the past month. The distressed inventory is rapidly diminishing, shedding an additional 48 foreclosures and short sales over the past two weeks and now sits at 226. Only 7% of the active listing inventory is distressed and 20% of demand. Compare that to last year when it represented 29% of the inventory and 52% of demand. Once again, the market is in transition, moving away from distressed sales having such a tremendous impact on housing.

The Orange County Housing Report
Provided by: Steve & Karen Hakola, Hakola & Associates 877-4-HAKOLA, (949) 661-7653, [email protected], www. HAKOLAS.COM Regency Real Estate Brokers, Inc. , DRE# 00604415, 00610273

In the past two weeks, the foreclosure inventory decreased by 16 homes, totaling 86, and has an expected market time of 19 days. The short sale inventory decreased by 32 homes in the past two weeks, totaling 140, and has an expected market time of an unbelievable 10 days. Short sales continue to be the hottest segment of the Orange County housing market. How should a buyer approach the current market? It is best to have accurate expectations in approaching the current housing market as a buyer. Multiple offers are now the norm, but what does that mean as a buyer? Be prepared to write many offers. When 20 offers are generated on a home, only one is able to proceed to escrow; 19 others have to move on. I hear every week of buyers who have written a purchase contract on more than 15 homes. There simply is not enough inventory to satisfy the number of buyers waiting to purchase. When that happens, every home is like a mini-auction. We hear reports of people camping out for a week to purchase new homes. It is a very deep seller’s market where they get to call all of the shots. There is also a ton of cash in the market, currently a third of all transactions. Some buyers are borrowing the cash from reserves, or a parent, and a couple of months after closing are obtaining financing. Why? Cash is easier. A lender cannot muck up a deal a week before closing. With values rising so fast, appraisals have been an issue (it happens every time the market turns upward after a recession), and they have the ability to remove the appraisal as a contingency of closing. A buyer should approach the purchase price very carefully, knowing that they will be competing with many others who are going to be just as thorough. Homes ARE selling for more than the asking price; and, depending upon the property, way over the asking price. Pouring over most recent sales is essential, but factoring in pending sales is even more important today. Buyers need to have long term vision. Take a look at the complete monthly payment and stay within a comfortable range. Today’s historically low interest rates are allowing buyers to buy a bit more property. So, the emphasis should shift from the price being offered to the monthly payment that will be paid every month of every year. Ask any homeowner who has been in their home for years and they could care less how much they paid for their home; instead, they care about the check they have to write every month to slowly pay off their loan over 30-years.

Sincerely,

Steve & Karen Hakola
Hakola & Associates Regency Real Estate Brokers, Inc. 25950 Acero, #100, Mission Viejo 92691

If your property is currently listed, this is not intended as a solicitation.

Orange County Housing Report
Karen and Steve Hakola, Hakola and Associates 877-4-HAKOLA, (949) 661-7653, [email protected], www.Hakolas.com DRE #" 00604415, 00610273 Current Actives Market Time Pendings (Last 30 Days) (In Months) 2-Weeks Ago 4-Weeks Ago 1-Year Ago 2-Years Ago
Average Active List Price

Aliso Viejo Anaheim Anaheim Hills Brea Buena Park Corona Del Mar Costa Mesa Coto De Caza Cypress Dana Point Dove Canyon Foothill Ranch Fountain Valley Fullerton Garden Grove Huntington Beach Irvine La Habra La Palma Ladera Ranch Laguna Beach Laguna Hills Laguna Niguel Laguna Woods Lake Forest Los Alamitos Mission Viejo Newport Beach Newport Coast Orange Placentia Portola Hills Rancho Santa Marg. San Clemente San Juan Santa Ana Seal Beach Stanton Talega Tustin Villa Park Westminster Yorba Linda All of O.C. O.C. $0-$250k O.C. $250k-$500k O.C. $500k-$750k O.C. $750k-$1m O.C. $1m-$1.5m O.C. $1.5m-$2m O.C. $2m-4m O.C. $4m+

3/14/2013 35 131 59 16 51 59 55 61 20 106 5 9 20 106 83 192 195 28 11 40 176 38 130 167 34 14 79 220 67 125 31 4 23 142 67 187 79 79 21 95 21 26 84 3,183 276 744 642 429 349 202 336 221

74 145 65 32 53 29 67 29 33 58 8 15 39 132 101 180 225 61 7 46 41 41 90 99 54 9 120 86 25 126 59 3 65 95 44 152 89 19 28 96 8 46 72 2,880 382 1,078 769 317 179 80 61 14

3/14/2013 0.47 0.90 0.91 0.50 0.96 2.03 0.82 2.10 0.61 1.83 0.63 0.60 0.51 0.80 0.82 1.07 0.87 0.46 1.57 0.87 4.29 0.93 1.44 1.69 0.63 1.56 0.66 2.56 2.68 0.99 0.53 1.33 0.35 1.49 1.52 1.23 0.89 4.16 0.75 0.99 2.63 0.57 1.17 1.11 0.72 0.69 0.83 1.35 1.95 2.53 5.51 15.79

2/28/2013 0.60 0.79 1.16 0.63 0.96 2.45 0.67 1.54 0.42 1.63 0.33 0.25 0.82 1.05 0.67 1.21 0.82 0.60 1.00 0.79 4.30 1.11 1.17 1.52 0.54 3.00 0.72 3.36 2.78 1.10 0.92 0.00 0.45 1.77 1.55 1.10 1.30 0.86 1.26 1.06 4.00 0.43 1.00 1.12 0.79 0.65 0.90 1.40 2.10 3.18 5.76 15.71

2/14/2013 0.32 0.91 1.02 0.51 1.23 2.50 0.47 1.43 0.44 1.98 0.22 0.19 0.70 1.11 0.76 1.22 0.93 0.83 1.38 0.90 4.00 0.89 1.09 1.52 0.57 1.14 0.57 3.33 1.96 0.97 0.81 0.08 0.52 1.66 1.48 1.20 1.70 0.44 0.92 1.33 3.83 0.82 1.06 1.13 0.80 0.70 0.85 1.46 2.37 4.78 5.78 14.50

3/15/2012 1.07 1.61 1.78 2.42 1.17 4.00 1.40 2.28 1.27 2.92 1.78 1.36 1.59 1.79 1.54 1.69 2.06 2.13 1.73 1.03 4.72 1.44 1.66 3.64 1.11 0.71 1.13 5.33 8.29 1.77 1.79 0.93 1.1 1.54 1.62 1.47 4.47 2.09 0.67 1.63 2.83 1.30 2.18 1.86 1.50 1.30 1.87 3.01 3.41 7.00 9.50 35.29

3/17/2011 2.74 3.54 3.43 2.47 2.92 5.36 3.39 6.79 2.65 6.06 2.27 2.77 2.76 3.82 2.98 3.70 3.44 4.68 * 2.18 7.64 2.68 2.70 6.71 2.51 * 3.02 6.21 6.00 3.79 3.23 2.08 2.46 4.20 3.15 3.23 6.04 * 2.86 4.13 4.57 3.02 4.71 3.63 3.41 2.89 3.74 4.21 6.63 6.30 10.58 20.00

3/14/2013 $621k $464k $1.1m $637k $543k $3.4m $717k $2.3m $657k $2.9m $838k $486k $655k $689k $484k $1.1m $1.4m $500k $576k $1.2m $5.1m $1.65m $1.5m $245k $590k $561k $749k $3.1m $5.8m $953k $505k $702k $478k $1.5m $1.7m $414k $590k $388k $1.1m $912k $1.5m $566k $1.0m $1.5m $158k $391k $625k $872k $1.3m $1.8m $2.9m $8.9m

*Data tabulated from SoCalMLS. This data may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Not all cities are listed but are included in the O.C. totals. Due to Range Price listings, "All of O.C." and the total of the seven ranges do not add up and are slightly off.

Orange County Housing Report - Price Ranges
877-4-HAKOLA, 949-661-7653, [email protected], www.hakolas.com
DRE # 00604415, 00610273

Attached Homes
Current Actives 3/14/2013 1,038 254 408 179 82 120 Pendings (Last 30 Days) 1,164 358 575 151 36 44 23.9% Market Time (In Months) 3/14/2013 0.89 0.71 0.71 1.19 2.28 2.73 2-Weeks Ago 2/28/2013 0.91 0.75 0.69 1.23 1.95 3.97 8-Weeks 2-Years Ago 1-Year Ago Ago 2/14/2013 3/15/2012 3/17/2011 0.93 1.73 3.81 0.80 1.56 3.45 0.70 1.55 3.46 1.29 2.82 5.69 2.03 3.48 8.35 4.07 5.76 14.62 Average Active List Price 3/14/2013 $665k $159k $372k $627k $850k $2.7m

All of O.C. O.C. $0-$250k O.C. $250k-$500k O.C. $500k-$750k O.C. $750k-$1m O.C. $1m+

Current Actives Vacant

Detached Homes
Current Actives 3/14/2013 2,136 19 335 462 345 287 177 315 206 Pendings (Last 30 Days) 1,707 19 502 616 280 153 66 58 13 13.2% Market Time (In Months) 3/14/2013 1.25 1.00 0.67 0.75 1.23 1.88 2.68 5.43 15.85 2-Weeks Ago 2/28/2013 1.26 1.33 0.62 0.81 1.31 1.96 3.21 5.53 14.64 8-Weeks 2-Years Ago 1-Year Ago Ago 2/14/2013 3/15/2012 3/17/2011 1.30 1.94 3.56 0.90 1.05 3.09 0.71 1.14 2.49 0.75 1.73 3.43 1.36 2.94 3.82 2.28 3.27 5.99 4.65 6.85 6.04 5.76 9.48 9.84 13.57 34.86 19.64 Average Active List Price 3/14/2013 $1.9m $174k $413k $625k $877k $1.3m $1.8m $2.9m $8.8m

All of O.C. O.C. $0-$250k O.C. $250k-$500k O.C. $500k-$750k O.C. $750k-$1m O.C. $1m-$1.5m O.C. $1.5m-$2m O.C. $2m-$4m O.C. $4m+

Current Actives Vacant

All Homes
Current Actives 3/14/2013 3,183 276 744 642 429 349 202 336 221 Pendings (Last 30 Days) 2,880 382 1,078 769 317 179 80 61 14 16.7% Market Time (In Months) 3/14/2013 1.11 0.72 0.69 0.83 1.35 1.95 2.53 5.51 15.79 2-Weeks Ago 2/28/2013 1.12 0.79 0.65 0.90 1.40 2.10 3.18 5.76 15.71 8-Weeks 2-Years Ago 1-Year Ago Ago 2/14/2013 3/15/2012 3/17/2011 1.13 1.86 3.63 0.80 1.50 3.41 0.70 1.30 2.89 0.85 1.87 3.74 1.46 3.01 4.21 2.37 3.41 6.63 4.78 7.00 6.30 5.78 9.50 10.58 14.50 35.29 20.00 Average Active List Price 3/14/2013 $1.5m $158k $391k $625k $872k $1.3m $1.8m $2.9m $8.9m

All of O.C. O.C. $0-$250k O.C. $250k-$500k O.C. $500k-$750k O.C. $750k-$1m O.C. $1m-$1.5m O.C. $1.5m-$2m O.C. $2m-4m O.C. $4m+

Current Actives Vacant

*Data tabulated from SoCalMLS. This data may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Not all cities are listed but are included in the O.C. totals. Due to Range Price listings, "All Homes," "Attached" and "Detached" totals do not add up and are slightly off.

Orange County Foreclosure Report
877-4-HAKOLA, 949-661-7653, [email protected], www.Hakolas.com
Regency Real Estate Brokers, Inc. DRE # 00604415, 00610273

Current Actives

Number of Foreclosures & Short Sale % of Active Actives Inventory

Current Actives

Number of Foreclosures & Short Sale % of Active Actives Inventory

Aliso Viejo Anaheim Anaheim Hills Brea Buena Park Corona Del Mar Costa Mesa Coto De Caza Cypress Dana Point Dove Canyon Foothill Ranch Fountain Valley Fullerton Garden Grove Huntington Beach Irvine La Habra La Palma Ladera Ranch Laguna Beach Laguna Hills Laguna Niguel Laguna Woods Lake Forest Los Alamitos Mission Viejo Newport Beach Newport Coast Orange Placentia Portola Hills
Rancho Santa Marg.

San Clemente San Juan Santa Ana Seal Beach Stanton Talega Tustin Villa Park Westminster Yorba Linda All of O.C.

3/14/2013 35 131 59 16 51 59 55 61 20 106 5 9 20 106 83 192 195 28 11 40 176 38 130 167 34 14 79 220 67 125 31 4 23 142 67 187 79 79 21 95 21 26 84 3,183

3/14/2013 6 21 5 7 3 0 5 2 8 4 0 3 2 9 13 9 9 6 2 2 4 7 4 9 3 1 6 5 3 14 4 0 0 2 5 20 3 3 0 5 1 0 5 226

3/14/2013 17.1% 16.0% 8.5% 43.8% 5.9% 0.0% 9.1% 3.3% 40.0% 3.8% 0.0% 33.3% 10.0% 8.5% 15.7% 4.7% 4.6% 21.4% 18.2% 5.0% 2.3% 18.4% 3.1% 5.4% 8.8% 7.1% 7.6% 2.3% 4.5% 11.2% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 7.5% 10.7% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 5.3% 4.8% 0.0% 6.0% 7.1%

Attached
All of O.C. O.C. $0-$250k O.C. $250k-$500k O.C. $500k-$750k O.C. $750k-$1m O.C. $1m+

3/14/2013 1,038 254 408 179 82 120

3/14/2013 90 31 47 10 0 2

3/14/2013 8.7% 12.2% 11.5% 5.6% 0.0% 1.7%

Detached
All of O.C. O.C. $0-$250k O.C. $250k-$500k O.C. $500k-$750k O.C. $750k-$1m O.C. $1m-$1.5m O.C. $1.5m-$2m O.C. $2m-$4m O.C. $4m+ 2,136 19 335 462 345 287 177 315 206 135 3 57 37 18 10 2 4 4 6.3% 15.8% 17.0% 8.0% 5.2% 3.5% 1.1% 1.3% 1.9%

All Homes
All of O.C. O.C. $0-$250k O.C. $250-$500k O.C. $500k-$750k O.C. $750k-$1m O.C. $1m-$1.5m O.C. $1.5m-$2m O.C. $2m-4m O.C. $4m+ 3,183 276 744 642 429 349 202 336 221 226 34 104 47 18 11 2 5 4 7.1% 12.3% 14.0% 7.3% 4.2% 3.2% 1.0% 1.5% 1.8%

County High Shares - Account for 27%
Brea Cypress Foothill Ranch La Habra Laguna Hills La Palma Aliso Viejo Anaheim 16 20 9 28 38 11 35 131 7 8 3 6 7 2 6 21 43.8% 40.0% 33.3% 21.4% 18.4% 18.2% 17.1% 16.0%

County Low Shares - Account for 3%
Corona Del Mar Dove Canyon Portola Hills
Rancho Santa Marg.

Orange County Distressed Breakdown
Current Actives 86 140 Pendings (Last 30 Days) 139 434 Market Time (In Months) 0.62 0.32

Talega Westminster San Clemente Laguna Beach

59 5 4 23 21 26 142 176

0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 2.3%

Total Foreclosures Total Short Sale

*Data tabulated from SoCalMLS. This data may not reflect all real estate activty in the market. Not all cities are listed but are included in the O.C. totals. Due to Range Price listings, "All Homes," "Attached" and "Detached" totals do not add up and are slightly off.

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