Pakistan 2010 Floods Damage and Needs Assessment Draft Findings
CONTENTS
Objective and Methodology Summary of findings
Flood Extent 31st of July (Initial Stages of Flood)
Total Inundation Extent of the Floods
THE PURPOSE OF THE DNA IS TO ASSESS THE DAMAGE AND LOSSES CAUSED AND CALCULATE THE COST OF RECONSTRUCTION
The DNA IS…
an overview of sector level program strategies and policy options based on cost of replacing what was lost with a build back better/smarter factor based on replacing permanent assets and services a quantification of public needs requirements
The DNA is NOT…
prescriptive, does not present a menu of projects
inclusive of development costs ‘Early Recovery’ – defined as transitional services‐ these are covered in UN report Inclusive of private needs requirements
Objective of the DNA: To provide the strategic underpinnings for medium‐ to long‐term post‐floods reconstruction and recovery planning, prioritization, and programming
DAMAGE ASSESSMENT HAS BEEN CONDUCTED THROUGH DATA VERIFICATIONS WHILE NEEDS ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON ANALYSIS AND POLICY DECISIONS
Data collection & verification
Data analysis & policy decisions Direct Damages: monetary value of the completely or partially destroyed assets immediately following the disaster Indirect Losses: income losses, change of flow of goods and services, increased expenses, curtailed production and diminished revenue, arising from direct damage to production capacity and social and economic infrastructure Reconstruction Costs: cost of rebuilding lost assets and restoring lost services. Generally assessed at the replacement cost with a premium added for build back better/smarter based on policy decisions
Sectoral profiles based on: 1. Data from questionnaires 2. Secondary data Verification through: 1. Field visits by sector teams 2. Interviews with stakeholders 3. Desk reviews 4. Satellite imagery 5. Other plausibility checks
THE DNA USES THE ECLAC METHODOLOGY WHICH HAS BEEN USED IN POST‐ DISASTER ASSESSMENT FOR OVER THIRTY YEARS
Snapshot of DNA Methodology
*Recovery & Reconstruction *Macro
* Sector by sector
* Pre‐disaster performance
EXPERT TEAMS HAVE BEEN WORKING TO GATHER, VALIDATE AND ANALYSE DATA ACROSS SEVENTEEN SECTORS SINCE AUGUST 20, 2010
1
Housing Transport Energy Water & Sanitation Education Health Social Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries Social Protection and Livelihoods Governance Environment Economic Assessment Disaster Risk Management Irrigation and Flood Management Private Sector & Industries Financial Sector Implementation Arrangements
Scope
17 Sectors Composition of Sectoral Teams Mix of WB/ADB staff Relevant One UN organizations Bilaterals engagement through 20 experts
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
THE DNA TEAM HAS BEEN WORKING WITH THE GOVERNMENT AT ALL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PROCESS
DNA Core Team WB/ADB
Government of Pakistan PC, EAD, NDMA
One UN Early Recovery Team
PC DNA Committee
DNA Data Collection Team
Sector Teams
Provincial Focal Points
DNA Field Data Collection Team
Field Validation
Upwards Data Flow
Districts & Tehsils
Support Functions Satellite Imagery team Institutional Arrangements Team Donor Coordination Team Communications Team DNA Writing Team
CONTENTS
Objective and Methodology Summary of findings
SUMMARY OF DAMAGE + LOSSES
Sector Irrigation Housing Agriculture Transport & Communications Energy Livelihoods Support Private Sector Education Health Water & Sanitation Governance Financial Environment DRM Total USD millions Total PKR millions Damages + Losses USD millions 278 1,588 5,045 1,328 309 282 311 50 109 70 674 12 10,056 854,771
Irrigation and Flood Sector
16/11/2010 11:26
IRRIGATION, DRAINAGE AND FLOOD SECTOR OVERVIEW OF DAMAGES
Barrages/ dams (No) Canal systems/ breaches (No) 6 (80 locations) Flood Irrigation Embankment schemes / (No) Spurs (No) 58 30 50 66 136 14 1 13 systems 7 (315 locations) 6 main systems 4 (25 breaches) 7 87 6 main systems 5 8 5 1 55 52 9 Drainage system (No)
Reconstruction with remodeling of selected damaged infrastructure
Build Back Safer
Reconstruction PLUS measures for improved flood protection and management: “building‐back‐safer” for critical settlements and urban areas prone to flash floods and river bank erosion in AJK, GB and KP expansion of the Flood Early Warning System to Swat, Peshawar and DG Khan areas revisit the country’s overall flood management strategy
HOUSING SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES Number of houses damaged 6,843 79,720 5,419 3,157 257,294 375,773 879,978 1,608,184 Damage Value USD millions 10 97 4 5 226 322 925 1,588
Province AJK Baluchistan FATA Gilgit Baltistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Punjab Sindh Sector Total
HOUSING SECTOR POLICY OPTIONS
Support Hazard Resistant Reconstruction to secure future investments
•Base Case: Restore to pre‐flood conditions; uniform katcha‐standard – not recommended • Option 2: Restore to flood‐resistant standard. Recommended for Punjab & Sindh only
Build-Back-Smarter to optimize costs
• Option 3: Restore to multi‐hazard‐resistant standard. Recommended
Transport & Communication
16/11/2010 11:26
TRANSPORT SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES
Provinces National Highways Provincial District & Highways Municipal Roads 35 3,540 5 33 402 53 265 Total Railways 793 259 281 1,925 3,125 367 294 1,705 963 349 5,850 2,485 6,277 21,170 Total (Kms)
Telecommunicati Damages to 734 km transmission line, 284 transmission stations and 594 exchange centre on Minor damages to 4 airports Aviation
* 10% of the total road network is affected out of which 8% roads are completely destroyed ** The length figures show both completely and partially damaged roads
TRANSPORT SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Principles for reconstruction
‐ Restoration of connectivity ‐ complementarities with
early recovery ‐ Strategic planning ‐ flood risks and transport infrastructure vulnerability
Strategy for reconstruction
‐ Field verification, needs assessment, disaster risk analysis
and condition surveys prior to commencement ‐ Synergy in flood protection and design of national, provincial and strategic communication links
TRANSPORT SECTOR DAMAGE COSTS Province ROADS AJK Baluchistan FATA Gilgit Baltistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Punjab Sindh RAILWAYS TELECOMMUNICATION AVIATION Total 35 38 23 15 338 179 605 60 35 0.7 1,328* Damages USD millions
* Includes direct damages of $735 million which are calculated on the basis of depreciated replacement cost of damaged infrastructure
Large Animals = Cattle, Buffaloes, Camels, Horse, Donkey Fishery/Ponds lost in FATA included in estimates for Pakhtunkhwa
16/11/2010 11:26
AGRICULTURE SECTOR POLICY OPTIONS
Compensation Strategy
Crops : Inkind compensation in form of seeds, fertilizer etc Livestock : Inkind compensation for poor On‐farm irrigation : Rehabilitation of damaged watercourses Fisheries : Compensated in the form of subsidy
16/11/2010
Environment
ENVIRONMENT SECTOR STRATEGY & POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Short Term Address immediate issues relating to environmental health • Contaminated drinking water,
regulatory and institutional strengthening, phased recovery of natural systems, and others.
Disaster Risk Management
16/11/2010 11:26
DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Institutional development and capacity building Develop climate change strategy
Integration of pre‐existing parallel structures for DRM at Federal and Provincial levels for synergizing and increased coordination and capacity building Development of a national climate change strategy framework backed by policy legislation & capacity building of key institutions and raising awareness Restoring and enhancing the performance of key elements of the country’s flood early warning system and development of a national multi‐hazard Integrated decision support and alert system Promoting community based disaster risk management (CBDRM) and education – increasing awareness on DRM Early initiation and completion of national multi‐ hazard risk mapping to define the national hazard risk environment and also develop a strategy for catastrophe risk financing
Enhance early warning systems
Increase community preparedness & awareness
Hazard Mapping and risk transfer mechanisms
DRM SECTOR NEEDS
Interventions 1 2 Management study of NDMA and existing parallel DRM structures for assimilation Development of a central MIS System at NDMA with appropriate linkages with Federal, Provincial and District Response Agencies – including aid tracking and management systems at all levels Technical assistance and hardware support for NDMA, PDMAs and operationalization of DDMAs in 30 priority districts Social mobilization and training communities on preparedness/response in 30 priority/high-risk districts (including equipment for first responders) Flood hazard mapping GIS-based inundation profiling and of coastal districts Development of a multi-hazard national Integrated Decision Support and Alert System with focus on Flood-related Disaster Management (NIMS) Assessment and identification of potential disaster risk insurance options and development of a strategy for catastrophe risk financing mechanisms and solutions including some piloting Strengthening the capacity of national climate change centers and creating awareness on climate change issues Development and Integration of DRM in education and awareness building at all levels Develop capacity for carrying out various assessments, such as multi-hazard risk assessments and damage and needs assessments (DNA)
3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11
Institutional Arrangements
16/11/2010 11:26
INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS ‐ PRINCIPLES AND RECOMMENDATIONS Put in place core institutional arrangement (nodal agencies) at federal and provincial levels– Clarity of roles in policy, Efficient coordination, M&E/reporting, fund flow/management and Delivery implementations Equity Policy/strategy/criteria for equitable resource allocation among provinces/regions based on damages sustained and the associated disaster risks for reconstruction Pro‐active program and strategic communications (disclosure) on Rehab and Reconstruction (RR), selection criteria, identification methodology, design standards, procurements, implementation and independent oversight and monitoring – public domain, Public Accounts Committee, civil society Enhanced fiduciary safeguards and risk mitigation capacities and measures – establish internal and external controls – country systems, special systems for RR projects building on what exists to meet donor requirement/harmonization – upfront challenge
Transparency
Accountability
INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS ‐ PRINCIPLES AND RECOMMENDATIONS Coordination Effective coordination between agencies (donors), sectors and geographic areas, through sectoral, national, provincial and district level coordination fora Fast‐tracking procedures and systems for RR implementation – procurement, approvals and hiring of human resource and consultants – training to use existing and new fast tracking systems Implementation responsibility, systems and capacities delegated to the lowest level of government – more ownership and accountability Timely and effective response to safeguards, grievances and complaints – to carry the additional RR load (individual and institutional
Indiginizing best practices
Subsidiarity
Socially responsive
INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS ‐ PRINCIPLES AND RECOMMENDATIONS Planning and Budgeting Realistic planning and budgeting – basic tools to fix responsibility for achieving results – weakest link Effective internal and external (third party) monitoring and evaluation of RR inputs, outputs, process and results – clearly defined roles at the federal and provincial levels and for outsourcing–built on and integrate with what we have
Monitoring and Evaluation
INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS ‐ PRINCIPLES AND RECOMMENDATIONS