Pakistan Flood

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Pakistan 2010 Floods  Damage and Needs Assessment Draft Findings

CONTENTS

Objective and Methodology Summary of findings

Flood Extent 31st of July  (Initial Stages of Flood)

Total Inundation Extent of the Floods

THE PURPOSE OF THE DNA IS TO ASSESS THE DAMAGE AND LOSSES CAUSED AND CALCULATE THE COST OF RECONSTRUCTION

The DNA IS…
an overview of sector level program  strategies and policy options based on cost of replacing what was  lost with a build back better/smarter  factor based on replacing permanent  assets and services a quantification of public needs  requirements

The DNA is NOT…
prescriptive, does not present a  menu of projects

inclusive of development costs ‘Early Recovery’ – defined as  transitional services‐ these are  covered in UN report Inclusive of private needs  requirements

Objective of the DNA: To provide the strategic underpinnings for medium‐ to long‐term post‐floods  reconstruction and recovery planning, prioritization, and programming

DAMAGE ASSESSMENT HAS BEEN CONDUCTED THROUGH DATA VERIFICATIONS  WHILE  NEEDS ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON ANALYSIS AND POLICY DECISIONS

Data collection & verification

Data analysis  & policy decisions Direct Damages: monetary value of the completely  or partially destroyed assets immediately following  the disaster Indirect Losses: income losses, change of flow of  goods and services, increased expenses, curtailed  production and diminished revenue, arising from  direct damage to production capacity and social and  economic infrastructure Reconstruction Costs: cost of rebuilding lost assets  and restoring lost services.  Generally assessed at the  replacement cost with a premium added for build  back better/smarter based on policy decisions

Sectoral profiles based on: 1. Data from questionnaires  2. Secondary data Verification through: 1.  Field visits by sector teams 2. Interviews with stakeholders  3. Desk reviews 4. Satellite imagery  5. Other plausibility checks 

THE DNA USES THE ECLAC METHODOLOGY WHICH HAS BEEN USED IN POST‐ DISASTER ASSESSMENT FOR OVER THIRTY YEARS

Snapshot of DNA Methodology 
*Recovery &  Reconstruction *Macro

* Sector by sector

* Pre‐disaster  performance

EXPERT TEAMS HAVE BEEN WORKING TO GATHER, VALIDATE AND ANALYSE  DATA ACROSS SEVENTEEN SECTORS SINCE AUGUST 20, 2010

1

Housing Transport Energy Water & Sanitation  Education Health Social Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries Social Protection and Livelihoods  Governance  Environment Economic Assessment Disaster Risk Management Irrigation and Flood Management Private Sector & Industries Financial Sector Implementation Arrangements

WB ADB ADB ADB WB ADB ADB WB WB ADB WB WB WB ADB WB WB ADB

Scope
17 Sectors Composition of Sectoral Teams Mix of WB/ADB staff Relevant One UN  organizations Bilaterals engagement  through 20 experts

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

THE DNA TEAM HAS BEEN WORKING WITH THE GOVERNMENT AT ALL LEVELS  THROUGHOUT THE PROCESS 
DNA Core  Team WB/ADB

Government of  Pakistan PC, EAD, NDMA

One UN Early  Recovery Team

PC DNA  Committee

DNA Data  Collection Team

Sector Teams

Provincial Focal  Points

DNA Field Data   Collection Team

Field Validation

Upwards Data Flow

Districts & Tehsils
Support Functions Satellite Imagery team Institutional  Arrangements Team Donor Coordination  Team Communications Team DNA Writing  Team

CONTENTS

Objective and Methodology Summary of findings

SUMMARY OF DAMAGE + LOSSES 
Sector  Irrigation  Housing Agriculture  Transport & Communications  Energy   Livelihoods Support  Private Sector  Education  Health  Water & Sanitation  Governance  Financial   Environment  DRM  Total USD millions Total PKR millions Damages + Losses  USD millions  278 1,588 5,045 1,328 309 282 311 50 109 70 674 12 10,056 854,771

Irrigation and Flood Sector

16/11/2010 11:26

IRRIGATION, DRAINAGE AND FLOOD SECTOR OVERVIEW OF DAMAGES
Barrages/  dams (No) Canal  systems/  breaches (No) 6 (80  locations) Flood   Irrigation  Embankment schemes /  (No) Spurs (No) 58 30 50 66 136 14 1 13 systems 7 (315  locations) 6 main  systems 4 (25  breaches) 7 87 6 main  systems  5 8  5 1 55 52 9 Drainage  system (No)

Province

AJK Balochistan FATA Gilgit Baltistan Khyber  Pakhtunkhwa Punjab Sindh WAPDA 1

IRRIGATION AND FLOOD SECTOR POLICY OPTIONS

Base Case

Reconstruction with  remodeling of selected damaged   infrastructure

Build Back  Safer

Reconstruction PLUS measures for improved flood  protection and management: “building‐back‐safer” for critical settlements and  urban areas prone to flash floods and river bank erosion  in AJK, GB and KP  expansion of the Flood Early Warning System to Swat,  Peshawar and DG Khan areas  revisit the country’s overall flood management  strategy 

IRRIGATION AND FLOOD SECTOR DAMAGES COST

Province/ Region/ Agency AJK Balochistan FATA Gilgit Baltistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Punjab Sindh WAPDA Sector Total

Damage  USD Millions 0.2 29.6 3.0 1.6 68.4 33.1 136.9 4.9 277.6

Housing

16/11/2010 11:26

HOUSING SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES Number of houses damaged 6,843 79,720 5,419 3,157 257,294 375,773 879,978 1,608,184 Damage Value USD millions 10 97 4 5 226 322 925 1,588

Province AJK Baluchistan FATA Gilgit Baltistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Punjab Sindh Sector Total

HOUSING SECTOR POLICY OPTIONS

Support Hazard Resistant Reconstruction to secure future investments

•Base Case: Restore to pre‐flood conditions;  uniform katcha‐standard – not recommended • Option 2: Restore to flood‐resistant standard.  Recommended for Punjab & Sindh only 

Build-Back-Smarter to optimize costs

• Option 3: Restore to multi‐hazard‐resistant  standard. Recommended

Transport & Communication

16/11/2010 11:26

TRANSPORT SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES
Provinces National  Highways Provincial  District &  Highways Municipal  Roads 35 3,540 5 33 402 53 265 Total Railways 793 259 281 1,925 3,125 367 294 1,705 963 349 5,850 2,485 6,277 21,170 Total (Kms)

AJK Baluchistan FATA Gilgit Baltistan Khyber  Pakhtunkhwa Punjab Sindh

3,575 2,077 1,257 382 6,511 2,819 8,467 25,088*

1,224 Km railway line damaged 

Telecommunicati Damages to 734 km transmission line, 284 transmission stations and  594 exchange centre on Minor damages to 4 airports Aviation
* 10% of the total road network is affected out of which 8% roads are completely destroyed ** The length figures show both completely and partially damaged roads

TRANSPORT SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

Principles for  reconstruction

‐ Restoration of connectivity ‐ complementarities with 

early recovery ‐ Strategic planning ‐ flood risks and transport  infrastructure vulnerability

Strategy for  reconstruction

‐ Field verification, needs assessment, disaster risk analysis 

and condition surveys prior to commencement ‐ Synergy in flood protection and design of national,  provincial and strategic communication links

TRANSPORT SECTOR DAMAGE COSTS Province ROADS AJK Baluchistan FATA Gilgit Baltistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Punjab Sindh RAILWAYS TELECOMMUNICATION AVIATION Total 35 38 23 15 338 179 605 60 35 0.7 1,328* Damages USD millions

* Includes direct damages of $735 million which are calculated on the basis of depreciated replacement cost of damaged   infrastructure

Agriculture, Livestock & Fisheries

16/11/2010 11:26

AGRICULTURE SECTOR ESTIMATED DAMAGES
Crop Area  Small Animals  Damaged (000  Large Animals  (incl. sheep,  ha) (000 head) goal) 000 33.1 132.4 7.2 7.9 121.4 746.8 1,043.5 2,092.6 0.3 139.6 6.2 1.3 72.4 2.3 93.7 315.6 0.3 1,036.7 8.4 10.8 67.8 2.5 81.9 1,208.3 Poultry  Perished  (000) 11.7 625.5 101.2 12.9 621.3 2012 6,895.1 10,279.7

Province AJK Balochistan FATA Gilgit  Baltistan Khyber  Pakhtunkhwa Punjab Sindh Total

Watercourses  Damages Nos 657 47 n/a 960 1,790 2,598 6,990 13,042

Large Animals = Cattle, Buffaloes, Camels, Horse, Donkey  Fishery/Ponds lost in FATA included in estimates for Pakhtunkhwa

16/11/2010 11:26

AGRICULTURE SECTOR POLICY OPTIONS

Compensation   Strategy

Crops : Inkind compensation in form of seeds, fertilizer etc Livestock : Inkind compensation for poor On‐farm irrigation : Rehabilitation of damaged watercourses Fisheries : Compensated in the form of subsidy 

16/11/2010

Environment

ENVIRONMENT SECTOR STRATEGY & POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Short Term Address immediate  issues relating to  environmental  health • Contaminated drinking water, 

• Disease vectors,  • Safe waste disposal,  • Debris disposal, • Hazardous wastes

Medium to Long Term

Initiate non‐ structural  interventions to  control floods

• Forest restoration • Riparian vegetation restoration • Wetland Restoration 

Technical  Assistance

• Include flood protection plans, land use plans, 

regulatory and institutional strengthening, phased  recovery of natural systems, and others.

Disaster Risk Management

16/11/2010 11:26

DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT SECTOR STRATEGY AND POLICY  RECOMMENDATIONS
Institutional   development and  capacity building Develop climate  change strategy

Integration of pre‐existing parallel structures for  DRM at Federal and Provincial levels for synergizing  and increased coordination and capacity building  Development of a national climate change strategy  framework backed by policy legislation & capacity  building of key institutions and raising awareness Restoring and enhancing the performance of key  elements of the country’s flood early warning  system and development of a national multi‐hazard  Integrated decision support and alert system Promoting community based disaster risk  management (CBDRM) and education – increasing  awareness on DRM Early initiation and completion of national multi‐ hazard risk mapping to define the national hazard  risk environment and also develop a strategy for  catastrophe risk financing

Enhance early  warning systems
Increase community  preparedness &  awareness

Hazard Mapping  and risk transfer  mechanisms

DRM SECTOR NEEDS 
Interventions 1 2 Management study of NDMA and existing parallel DRM structures for assimilation Development of a central MIS System at NDMA with appropriate linkages with Federal, Provincial and District Response Agencies – including aid tracking and management systems at all levels Technical assistance and hardware support for NDMA, PDMAs and operationalization of DDMAs in 30 priority districts Social mobilization and training communities on preparedness/response in 30 priority/high-risk districts (including equipment for first responders) Flood hazard mapping GIS-based inundation profiling and of coastal districts Development of a multi-hazard national Integrated Decision Support and Alert System with focus on Flood-related Disaster Management (NIMS) Assessment and identification of potential disaster risk insurance options and development of a strategy for catastrophe risk financing mechanisms and solutions including some piloting Strengthening the capacity of national climate change centers and creating awareness on climate change issues Development and Integration of DRM in education and awareness building at all levels Develop capacity for carrying out various assessments, such as multi-hazard risk assessments and damage and needs assessments (DNA)

3 4 5 6 7 8

9 10 11

Institutional Arrangements

16/11/2010 11:26

INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS ‐ PRINCIPLES AND RECOMMENDATIONS Put in place core institutional arrangement (nodal agencies) at  federal and provincial levels– Clarity of roles in policy,  Efficient  coordination, M&E/reporting, fund flow/management and  Delivery implementations Equity Policy/strategy/criteria for equitable resource allocation  among provinces/regions based on damages sustained and  the associated disaster risks for reconstruction Pro‐active program and strategic communications (disclosure) on  Rehab and Reconstruction (RR), selection criteria, identification  methodology,  design standards, procurements, implementation  and independent oversight and monitoring – public domain, Public  Accounts Committee, civil society Enhanced fiduciary safeguards and risk mitigation capacities  and measures – establish internal and external controls – country systems, special systems for RR projects building on  what exists to meet donor requirement/harmonization – upfront challenge

Transparency

Accountability

INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS ‐ PRINCIPLES AND RECOMMENDATIONS Coordination Effective coordination between agencies (donors), sectors  and geographic areas, through sectoral, national,  provincial and district level coordination fora Fast‐tracking procedures and systems for RR  implementation – procurement, approvals and hiring of  human resource  and consultants – training to use existing  and new fast tracking systems Implementation responsibility, systems and capacities  delegated to the lowest level of government – more  ownership and accountability Timely and effective response to safeguards, grievances  and complaints – to carry the additional RR load  (individual and institutional

Indiginizing best  practices

Subsidiarity

Socially  responsive

INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS ‐ PRINCIPLES AND RECOMMENDATIONS Planning and  Budgeting Realistic planning and budgeting – basic tools to fix  responsibility for achieving results – weakest link Effective internal and external (third party) monitoring and  evaluation of RR inputs, outputs, process and results – clearly defined roles at the federal and provincial levels and  for outsourcing–built on and integrate with what we have

Monitoring and  Evaluation

INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS ‐ PRINCIPLES AND RECOMMENDATIONS

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