PPP NM Congressional Poll
Content
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
February 25, 2010
INTERVIEWS: DEAN DEBNAM 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888 (serious media
inquiries only please, other questions can be directed to Tom Jensen)
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POLL: TOM JENSEN 919-744-6312
Heinrich, Lujan lead while Pearce leads Teague
Raleigh, N.C. – Two of New Mexico’s three new Congressmen start out with the lead for
reelection, while the third trails his opponent by a small margin.
In the 1st Congressional District Martin Heinrich has a 45-36 lead over Jon Barela. His
approval rating breaks down as a positive 40/38 spread. At this point 72% of voters have
no opinion about Barela, suggesting that the race could get closer if he’s able to build his
name recognition. Speaking to the discontent independents are feeling with the
Democratic Party, Barela has a 44-31 advantage with them in spite of his low profile.
In the 2nd Congressional District Harry Teague trails Steve Pearce, who held the seat
before him, by a 43-41 margin. Teague actually has the best approval rating of the New
Mexico delegation at a 41/36 spread. But it’s a conservative district and Barack Obama’s
approval rating is a negative 44/49 there. Pearce retains good favorability numbers with
a 43/31 breakdown.
In the 3rd District Ben Ray Lujan leads Tom Mullins 42-36 and Adam Kokesh 40-32.
Lujan has poor approval numbers with 40% of voters giving him bad marks to just 31%
who like how he’s doing. But the district’s overwhelmingly Democratic nature should
make it easy for him to overcome that. Republicans are more unified in their dislike for
him than Democrats are in their support.
“Martin Heinrich and Ben Ray Lujan look like they should be good for reelection,” said
Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Harry Teague has built a good
amount of support given how conservative his district is, but will have a hard time
hanging on in this political climate.”
PPP surveyed 400 voters in each Congressional district from February 18th to 20th. The
margin of error on each survey is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be
interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to
quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at
(888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Public Policy Polling
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
Phone: 888 621-6988
Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Email: [email protected]
New Mexico Survey Results
Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Q5
Approve .......................................................... 47%
Heinrich........................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 47%
Barela ............................................................. 36%
Not Sure.......................................................... 6%
Q2
Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion? If you support it, press 1. If you
oppose it, press 2. If you don’t have an opinion,
press 3.
Undecided....................................................... 19%
Q6
Moderate......................................................... 42%
Conservative................................................... 34%
Oppose ........................................................... 50%
Q3
Q4
Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Martin Heinrich’s job
performance? If you approve, press 1. If you
disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ............................................................. 24%
Support ........................................................... 41%
No Opinion...................................................... 9%
If the candidates for Congress this fall were
Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican Jon
Barela, who would you vote for? If Martin
Heinrich, press 1. If Jon Barela, press 2. If
you’re undecided, press 3.
Q7
If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 52%
Man................................................................. 48%
Q8
If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 40%
Democrat ........................................................ 52%
Disapprove...................................................... 38%
Republican...................................................... 31%
Not Sure.......................................................... 23%
Independent/Other.......................................... 17%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Barela? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Q9
If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic .......................................................... 43%
Favorable........................................................ 13%
White .............................................................. 49%
Unfavorable .................................................... 15%
African American ............................................ 2%
Not Sure.......................................................... 72%
Other............................................................... 6%
February 18-20, 2010
Survey of 400 NM-1 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 6%
30 to 45........................................................... 26%
46 to 65........................................................... 45%
Older than 65 .................................................. 23%
February 18-20, 2010
Survey of 400 NM-1 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Obam a Approval
Approve
47%
86%
56%
8%
Disapprove
47%
6%
37%
88%
Not Sure
6%
8%
7%
4%
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Support
41%
84%
43%
7%
Oppose
50%
10%
45%
87%
No Opinion
9%
6%
12%
7%
Ideology
Ideology
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Heinrich Approval
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Barela Favorability
Approve
40%
79%
37%
15%
Favorable
13%
9%
12%
17%
Disapprove
38%
11%
32%
64%
Unfavorable
15%
20%
17%
8%
Not Sure
23%
10%
31%
21%
Not Sure
72%
71%
71%
75%
November 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-1 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Ideology
Gender
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Heinrich/Barela
Base Wom an Man
Obam a Approval
Heinrich
45%
87%
49%
10%
Approve
47%
52% 42%
Barela
36%
5%
25%
72%
Disapprove
47%
43% 51%
Undecided
19%
8%
26%
18%
Not Sure
6%
7%
Gender
Gender
Base Wom an Man
Base Wom an Man
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Heinrich Approval
Support
41%
42% 39%
Oppose
50%
45% 57%
No Opinion
9%
November 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-1 voters
5%
13%
Approve
40%
41% 39%
Disapprove
38%
28% 48%
Not Sure
23%
31% 13%
5%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Gender
Gender
Base Wom an Man
Base Wom an Man
Barela Favorability
Heinrich/Barela
9% 17%
Heinrich
45%
48% 42%
15%
9% 21%
Barela
36%
29% 44%
72%
82% 62%
Undecided
19%
23% 14%
Favorable
13%
Unfavorable
Not Sure
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Obam a Approval
Approve
47%
75%
12%
28%
Disapprove
47%
17%
86%
63%
Not Sure
6%
8%
2%
9%
November 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-1 voters
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Support
41%
65%
9%
26%
Oppose
50%
22%
87%
68%
No Opinion
9%
13%
4%
6%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Heinrich Approval
Barela Favorability
40%
60%
12%
29%
Disapprove
38%
16%
66%
51%
Not Sure
23%
24%
21%
20%
Approve
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
13%
13%
16%
8%
Unfavorable
15%
16%
11%
18%
Not Sure
72%
71%
73%
74%
Favorable
Party
Race
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Heinrich/Barela
Heinrich
45%
73%
6%
31%
Barela
36%
11%
74%
44%
Undecided
19%
16%
21%
25%
November 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-1 voters
Obam a Approval
Approve
47%
54%
41%
67%
45%
Disapprove
47%
40%
55%
17%
38%
Not Sure
6%
6%
5%
17%
17%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Race
Race
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Heinrich Approval
Support
41%
44%
38%
33%
45%
Oppose
50%
46%
56%
33%
41%
No Opinion
9%
10%
7%
33%
14%
Approve
40%
45%
38%
-
34%
Disapprove
38%
33%
42%
17%
45%
Not Sure
23%
22%
20%
83%
21%
Race
Race
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Barela Favorability
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Heinrich/Barela
Favorable
13%
17%
10%
17%
7%
Heinrich
45%
50%
41%
50%
45%
Unfavorable
15%
14%
16%
-
14%
Barela
36%
33%
39%
17%
38%
Not Sure
72%
69%
74%
83%
79%
Undecided
19%
17%
20%
33%
17%
November 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-1 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Age
Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Obam a Approval
Approve
47% 60% 47% 48%
42%
Disapprove
47% 40% 45% 47%
49%
Not Sure
6%
-
7%
5%
9%
Base
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Support
41% 42% 38% 44%
37%
Oppose
50% 47% 55% 46%
55%
No Opinion
9% 10%
Age
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
7% 10%
8%
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Heinrich Approval
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Barela Favorability
Approve
40% 42% 36% 44%
34%
Favorable
13% 18% 15% 12%
10%
Disapprove
38% 37% 39% 34%
43%
Unfavorable
15% 28% 13% 16%
12%
Not Sure
23% 21% 24% 21%
23%
Not Sure
72% 55% 72% 72%
78%
November 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-1 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Age
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Heinrich/Barela
Heinrich
45% 35% 42% 48%
45%
Barela
36% 23% 40% 33%
40%
Undecided
19% 42% 18% 19%
15%
November 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-1 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
New Mexico Survey Results
Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Q5
Approve .......................................................... 44%
Teague............................................................ 41%
Disapprove...................................................... 49%
Pearce ............................................................ 43%
Not Sure.......................................................... 7%
Q2
Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion? If you support it, press 1. If you
oppose it, press 2. If you don’t have an opinion,
press 3.
Undecided....................................................... 16%
Q6
Moderate......................................................... 38%
Conservative................................................... 44%
Oppose ........................................................... 53%
Q3
Q4
Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Harry Teague’s job
performance? If you approve, press 1. If you
disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ............................................................. 18%
Support ........................................................... 37%
No Opinion...................................................... 10%
If the candidates for Congress this fall were
Democrat Harry Teague and Republican Steve
Pearce, who would you vote for? If Harry
Teague, press 1. If Steve Pearce, press 2. If
you’re undecided, press 3.
Q7
If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 52%
Man................................................................. 48%
Q8
If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 41%
Democrat ........................................................ 47%
Disapprove...................................................... 36%
Republican...................................................... 40%
Not Sure.......................................................... 22%
Independent/Other .......................................... 13%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Pearce? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Q9
If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic .......................................................... 47%
Favorable........................................................ 43%
White .............................................................. 46%
Unfavorable .................................................... 31%
African American ............................................ 1%
Not Sure.......................................................... 26%
Other............................................................... 6%
February 18-20, 2010
Survey of 400 NM-2 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 8%
30 to 45........................................................... 13%
46 to 65........................................................... 46%
Older than 65 .................................................. 33%
February 18-20, 2010
Survey of 400 NM-2 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Obam a Approval
Approve
44%
80%
61%
13%
Disapprove
49%
14%
30%
81%
Not Sure
7%
6%
9%
6%
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Support
37%
76%
50%
10%
Oppose
53%
16%
32%
86%
No Opinion
10%
8%
18%
4%
Ideology
Ideology
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Teague Approval
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Pearce Favorability
Approve
41%
58%
56%
22%
Favorable
43%
11%
38%
59%
Disapprove
36%
23%
25%
52%
Unfavorable
31%
58%
33%
19%
Not Sure
22%
19%
20%
26%
Not Sure
26%
30%
29%
21%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-2 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Ideology
Gender
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Teague/Pearce
Base Wom an Man
Obam a Approval
Teague
41%
71%
54%
17%
Approve
44%
45% 43%
Pearce
43%
3%
31%
71%
Disapprove
49%
49% 50%
Undecided
16%
26%
15%
12%
Not Sure
7%
Gender
Base Wom an Man
Base Wom an Man
Teague Approval
Support
37%
37% 37%
Oppose
53%
52% 54%
No Opinion
10%
11%
survey of 400 NM-2 voters
8%
Gender
Obam a Health Care
Plan
February 18-20, 2010
6%
Approve
41%
42% 40%
Disapprove
36%
32% 41%
Not Sure
22%
25% 20%
9%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Gender
Gender
Base Wom an Man
Base Wom an Man
Pearce Favorability
Teague/Pearce
Favorable
43%
45% 40%
Teague
41%
35% 47%
Unfavorable
31%
30% 33%
Pearce
43%
44% 43%
26%
25% 27%
Undecided
16%
21% 10%
Not Sure
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Obam a Approval
Approve
44%
72%
14%
33%
Disapprove
49%
20%
82%
57%
Not Sure
7%
8%
4%
10%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-2 voters
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Support
37%
60%
9%
39%
Oppose
53%
23%
86%
60%
No Opinion
10%
17%
5%
1%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Teague Approval
Pearce Favorability
41%
54%
26%
41%
Disapprove
36%
24%
50%
41%
Not Sure
22%
22%
25%
19%
Approve
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
43%
26%
66%
34%
Unfavorable
31%
46%
14%
32%
Not Sure
26%
29%
20%
34%
Favorable
Party
Race
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Teague/Pearce
Teague
41%
64%
14%
41%
Pearce
43%
18%
72%
51%
Undecided
16%
19%
14%
9%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-2 voters
Obam a Approval
Approve
44%
65%
24%
60%
26%
Disapprove
49%
26%
71%
40%
71%
Not Sure
7%
9%
5%
-
3%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Race
Race
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Teague Approval
Support
37%
59%
18%
60%
10%
Oppose
53%
26%
78%
40%
74%
No Opinion
10%
15%
4%
-
16%
Approve
41%
52%
31%
60%
35%
Disapprove
36%
24%
49%
40%
32%
Not Sure
22%
24%
20%
-
32%
Race
Race
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Pearce Favorability
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Teague/Pearce
Favorable
43%
26%
58%
60%
55%
Teague
41%
58%
27%
40%
23%
Unfavorable
31%
41%
24%
40%
13%
Pearce
43%
23%
63%
40%
58%
Not Sure
26%
33%
18%
-
32%
Undecided
16%
20%
11%
20%
19%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-2 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Age
Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Obam a Approval
Approve
44% 42% 37% 53%
34%
Disapprove
49% 27% 61% 41%
61%
Not Sure
7% 30%
2%
6%
5%
Base
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Support
37% 42% 31% 44%
29%
Oppose
53% 25% 64% 47%
63%
No Opinion
10% 33%
Age
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
5%
9%
8%
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Teague Approval
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Pearce Favorability
Approve
41% 30% 46% 44%
38%
Favorable
43% 25% 40% 40%
52%
Disapprove
36% 26% 39% 37%
37%
Unfavorable
31% 40% 34% 33%
26%
Not Sure
22% 44% 15% 19%
25%
Not Sure
26% 35% 26% 27%
23%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-2 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Age
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Teague/Pearce
Teague
41% 51% 39% 43%
37%
Pearce
43% 16% 50% 39%
53%
Undecided
16% 33% 11% 19%
9%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-2 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
New Mexico Survey Results
Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Q6
Approve .......................................................... 45%
Lujan ............................................................... 40%
Disapprove...................................................... 47%
Kokesh............................................................ 32%
Not Sure.......................................................... 8%
Q2
Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion? If you support it, press 1. If you
oppose it, press 2. If you don’t have an opinion,
press 3.
Undecided....................................................... 28%
Q7
Support ........................................................... 40%
Mullins............................................................. 36%
No Opinion...................................................... 9%
Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Ben Lujan’s job performance? If
you approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press
2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
Undecided....................................................... 22%
Q8
Moderate......................................................... 36%
Disapprove...................................................... 40%
Q4
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Adam Kokesh? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable........................................................ 4%
Unfavorable .................................................... 17%
Not Sure.......................................................... 79%
Q5
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Mullins? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ............................................................. 24%
Approve .......................................................... 31%
Not Sure.......................................................... 29%
If the candidates for Congress this fall were
Democrat Ben Lujan and Republican Tom
Mullins, who would you vote for? If Ben Lujan,
press 1. If Tom Mullins, press 2. If you’re
undecided, press 3.
Lujan ............................................................... 42%
Oppose ........................................................... 51%
Q3
If the candidates for Congress this fall were
Democrat Ben Lujan and Republican Adam
Kokesh, who would you vote for? If Ben Lujan,
press 1. If Adam Kokesh, press 2. If you’re
undecided, press 3.
Conservative................................................... 40%
Q9
If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 52%
Man................................................................. 48%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 54%
Republican...................................................... 33%
Independent/Other .......................................... 12%
Independent/Other..........................................
Favorable........................................................ 10%
Unfavorable .................................................... 8%
Not Sure.......................................................... 81%
February 18-20, 2010
Survey of 400 NM-3 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Q11 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic .......................................................... 35%
White .............................................................. 57%
African American ............................................ 1%
Other............................................................... 7%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 5%
30 to 45........................................................... 22%
46 to 65........................................................... 50%
Older than 65 .................................................. 23%
February 18-20, 2010
Survey of 400 NM-3 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Obam a Approval
Approve
45%
83%
57%
10%
Disapprove
47%
7%
35%
83%
Not Sure
8%
10%
8%
7%
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Support
41%
85%
47%
7%
Oppose
50%
11%
41%
84%
No Opinion
9%
4%
12%
9%
Ideology
Ideology
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Lujan Approval
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Kokesh Favorability
Approve
29%
52%
36%
8%
Favorable
5%
3%
3%
7%
Disapprove
42%
18%
33%
67%
Unfavorable
18%
26%
17%
13%
Not Sure
29%
30%
31%
25%
Not Sure
77%
70%
80%
80%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-3 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Mullins Favorability
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Lujan/Kokesh
Favorable
10%
6%
5%
18%
Lujan
39%
74%
46%
9%
Unfavorable
9%
11%
10%
8%
Kokesh
33%
10%
20%
59%
Not Sure
81%
84%
85%
75%
Undecided
28%
16%
33%
31%
Ideology
Gender
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Lujan/Mullins
Base Wom an Man
Obam a Approval
Lujan
40%
77%
49%
9%
Approve
45%
46% 44%
Mullins
38%
9%
24%
70%
Disapprove
47%
44% 50%
Undecided
21%
14%
27%
20%
Not Sure
8%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-3 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
10%
6%
Crosstabs
Gender
Gender
Base Wom an Man
Base Wom an Man
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Lujan Approval
Support
41%
43% 38%
Oppose
50%
47% 54%
No Opinion
9%
9%
32% 26%
Disapprove
42%
38% 48%
Not Sure
29%
31% 26%
Gender
Gender
Base Wom an Man
Base Wom an Man
Mullins Favorability
5%
Favorable
10%
18%
15% 21%
Unfavorable
9%
77%
81% 74%
Not Sure
81%
Favorable
5%
Unfavorable
Not Sure
survey of 400 NM-3 voters
29%
8%
Kokesh Favorability
February 18-20, 2010
Approve
4%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
10% 11%
10%
8%
81% 81%
Crosstabs
Gender
Gender
Base Wom an Man
Base Wom an Man
Lujan/Kokesh
Lujan/Mullins
Lujan
39%
42% 35%
Lujan
40%
44% 37%
Kokesh
33%
29% 37%
Mullins
38%
33% 45%
28%
29% 27%
Undecided
21%
24% 18%
Undecided
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Obam a Approval
Approve
45%
73%
5%
35%
Disapprove
47%
17%
91%
54%
Not Sure
8%
10%
4%
11%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-3 voters
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Support
41%
68%
4%
32%
Oppose
50%
22%
92%
54%
No Opinion
9%
10%
4%
14%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Lujan Approval
Kokesh Favorability
29%
47%
4%
22%
Disapprove
42%
24%
71%
42%
Not Sure
29%
28%
25%
36%
Approve
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
5%
5%
4%
6%
Unfavorable
18%
20%
15%
17%
Not Sure
77%
75%
81%
77%
Favorable
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Mullins Favorability
Lujan/Kokesh
10%
5%
Unfavorable
9%
Not Sure
81%
Favorable
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-3 voters
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
17%
13%
Lujan
39%
64%
5%
26%
10%
8%
86%
75%
10%
Kokesh
33%
12%
72%
19%
77%
Undecided
28%
24%
23%
55%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Party
Race
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Lujan/Mullins
40%
66%
4%
34%
Mullins
38%
14%
81%
29%
Undecided
21%
21%
15%
36%
Lujan
Obam a Approval
Approve
45%
48%
41%
45%
61%
Disapprove
47%
39%
52%
41%
39%
Not Sure
8%
13%
7%
14%
-
Race
Race
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Lujan Approval
Support
41%
37%
41%
45%
51%
Oppose
50%
47%
53%
41%
44%
No Opinion
9%
16%
7%
14%
4%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-3 voters
Approve
29%
34%
26%
14%
39%
Disapprove
42%
38%
45%
72%
31%
Not Sure
29%
28%
29%
14%
31%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Race
Race
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Kokesh Favorability
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Mullins Favorability
Favorable
5%
6%
4%
31%
-
Favorable
10%
10%
10%
31%
7%
Unfavorable
18%
12%
19%
-
31%
Unfavorable
9%
8%
9%
-
18%
Not Sure
77%
81%
77%
69%
69%
Not Sure
81%
82%
81%
69%
75%
Race
Race
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Lujan/Kokesh
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Lujan/Mullins
Lujan
39%
49%
34%
31%
41%
Lujan
40%
49%
36%
59%
45%
Kokesh
33%
26%
38%
-
24%
Mullins
38%
28%
44%
31%
35%
Undecided
28%
25%
27%
69%
35%
Undecided
21%
23%
21%
10%
20%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-3 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Age
Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Obam a Approval
Approve
45% 33% 50% 47%
35%
Disapprove
47% 44% 43% 48%
57%
Not Sure
8% 22%
8%
5%
8%
Base
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Support
41% 39% 38% 47%
30%
Oppose
50% 44% 53% 47%
60%
No Opinion
9% 17% 10%
Age
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Base
9%
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Kokesh Favorability
Approve
29% 22% 26% 33%
28%
Favorable
Disapprove
42% 61% 45% 37%
43%
Not Sure
29% 17% 29% 31%
29%
survey of 400 NM-3 voters
6%
Age
Lujan Approval
February 18-20, 2010
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
5% 17%
4%
2%
Unfavorable
18% 22% 18% 16%
21%
Not Sure
77% 61% 79% 80%
77%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
4%
Crosstabs
Age
Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Mullins Favorability
10% 11%
Unfavorable
9% 22%
9% 11%
10%
Lujan
39% 33% 39% 41%
34%
8%
7%
10%
Kokesh
33% 39% 33% 32%
35%
81% 67% 84% 82%
79%
Undecided
28% 28% 29% 27%
31%
Age
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Lujan/Mullins
Lujan
40% 33% 40% 44%
34%
Mullins
38% 56% 34% 38%
39%
Undecided
21% 11% 26% 18%
27%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-3 voters
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Lujan/Kokesh
Favorable
Not Sure
Base
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
February 25, 2010
INTERVIEWS: DEAN DEBNAM 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888 (serious media
inquiries only please, other questions can be directed to Tom Jensen)
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POLL: TOM JENSEN 919-744-6312
Heinrich, Lujan lead while Pearce leads Teague
Raleigh, N.C. – Two of New Mexico’s three new Congressmen start out with the lead for
reelection, while the third trails his opponent by a small margin.
In the 1st Congressional District Martin Heinrich has a 45-36 lead over Jon Barela. His
approval rating breaks down as a positive 40/38 spread. At this point 72% of voters have
no opinion about Barela, suggesting that the race could get closer if he’s able to build his
name recognition. Speaking to the discontent independents are feeling with the
Democratic Party, Barela has a 44-31 advantage with them in spite of his low profile.
In the 2nd Congressional District Harry Teague trails Steve Pearce, who held the seat
before him, by a 43-41 margin. Teague actually has the best approval rating of the New
Mexico delegation at a 41/36 spread. But it’s a conservative district and Barack Obama’s
approval rating is a negative 44/49 there. Pearce retains good favorability numbers with
a 43/31 breakdown.
In the 3rd District Ben Ray Lujan leads Tom Mullins 42-36 and Adam Kokesh 40-32.
Lujan has poor approval numbers with 40% of voters giving him bad marks to just 31%
who like how he’s doing. But the district’s overwhelmingly Democratic nature should
make it easy for him to overcome that. Republicans are more unified in their dislike for
him than Democrats are in their support.
“Martin Heinrich and Ben Ray Lujan look like they should be good for reelection,” said
Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Harry Teague has built a good
amount of support given how conservative his district is, but will have a hard time
hanging on in this political climate.”
PPP surveyed 400 voters in each Congressional district from February 18th to 20th. The
margin of error on each survey is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be
interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to
quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at
(888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Public Policy Polling
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
Phone: 888 621-6988
Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Email: [email protected]
New Mexico Survey Results
Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Q5
Approve .......................................................... 47%
Heinrich........................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 47%
Barela ............................................................. 36%
Not Sure.......................................................... 6%
Q2
Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion? If you support it, press 1. If you
oppose it, press 2. If you don’t have an opinion,
press 3.
Undecided....................................................... 19%
Q6
Moderate......................................................... 42%
Conservative................................................... 34%
Oppose ........................................................... 50%
Q3
Q4
Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Martin Heinrich’s job
performance? If you approve, press 1. If you
disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ............................................................. 24%
Support ........................................................... 41%
No Opinion...................................................... 9%
If the candidates for Congress this fall were
Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican Jon
Barela, who would you vote for? If Martin
Heinrich, press 1. If Jon Barela, press 2. If
you’re undecided, press 3.
Q7
If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 52%
Man................................................................. 48%
Q8
If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 40%
Democrat ........................................................ 52%
Disapprove...................................................... 38%
Republican...................................................... 31%
Not Sure.......................................................... 23%
Independent/Other.......................................... 17%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Barela? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Q9
If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic .......................................................... 43%
Favorable........................................................ 13%
White .............................................................. 49%
Unfavorable .................................................... 15%
African American ............................................ 2%
Not Sure.......................................................... 72%
Other............................................................... 6%
February 18-20, 2010
Survey of 400 NM-1 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 6%
30 to 45........................................................... 26%
46 to 65........................................................... 45%
Older than 65 .................................................. 23%
February 18-20, 2010
Survey of 400 NM-1 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Obam a Approval
Approve
47%
86%
56%
8%
Disapprove
47%
6%
37%
88%
Not Sure
6%
8%
7%
4%
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Support
41%
84%
43%
7%
Oppose
50%
10%
45%
87%
No Opinion
9%
6%
12%
7%
Ideology
Ideology
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Heinrich Approval
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Barela Favorability
Approve
40%
79%
37%
15%
Favorable
13%
9%
12%
17%
Disapprove
38%
11%
32%
64%
Unfavorable
15%
20%
17%
8%
Not Sure
23%
10%
31%
21%
Not Sure
72%
71%
71%
75%
November 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-1 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Ideology
Gender
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Heinrich/Barela
Base Wom an Man
Obam a Approval
Heinrich
45%
87%
49%
10%
Approve
47%
52% 42%
Barela
36%
5%
25%
72%
Disapprove
47%
43% 51%
Undecided
19%
8%
26%
18%
Not Sure
6%
7%
Gender
Gender
Base Wom an Man
Base Wom an Man
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Heinrich Approval
Support
41%
42% 39%
Oppose
50%
45% 57%
No Opinion
9%
November 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-1 voters
5%
13%
Approve
40%
41% 39%
Disapprove
38%
28% 48%
Not Sure
23%
31% 13%
5%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Gender
Gender
Base Wom an Man
Base Wom an Man
Barela Favorability
Heinrich/Barela
9% 17%
Heinrich
45%
48% 42%
15%
9% 21%
Barela
36%
29% 44%
72%
82% 62%
Undecided
19%
23% 14%
Favorable
13%
Unfavorable
Not Sure
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Obam a Approval
Approve
47%
75%
12%
28%
Disapprove
47%
17%
86%
63%
Not Sure
6%
8%
2%
9%
November 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-1 voters
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Support
41%
65%
9%
26%
Oppose
50%
22%
87%
68%
No Opinion
9%
13%
4%
6%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Heinrich Approval
Barela Favorability
40%
60%
12%
29%
Disapprove
38%
16%
66%
51%
Not Sure
23%
24%
21%
20%
Approve
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
13%
13%
16%
8%
Unfavorable
15%
16%
11%
18%
Not Sure
72%
71%
73%
74%
Favorable
Party
Race
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Heinrich/Barela
Heinrich
45%
73%
6%
31%
Barela
36%
11%
74%
44%
Undecided
19%
16%
21%
25%
November 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-1 voters
Obam a Approval
Approve
47%
54%
41%
67%
45%
Disapprove
47%
40%
55%
17%
38%
Not Sure
6%
6%
5%
17%
17%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Race
Race
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Heinrich Approval
Support
41%
44%
38%
33%
45%
Oppose
50%
46%
56%
33%
41%
No Opinion
9%
10%
7%
33%
14%
Approve
40%
45%
38%
-
34%
Disapprove
38%
33%
42%
17%
45%
Not Sure
23%
22%
20%
83%
21%
Race
Race
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Barela Favorability
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Heinrich/Barela
Favorable
13%
17%
10%
17%
7%
Heinrich
45%
50%
41%
50%
45%
Unfavorable
15%
14%
16%
-
14%
Barela
36%
33%
39%
17%
38%
Not Sure
72%
69%
74%
83%
79%
Undecided
19%
17%
20%
33%
17%
November 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-1 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Age
Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Obam a Approval
Approve
47% 60% 47% 48%
42%
Disapprove
47% 40% 45% 47%
49%
Not Sure
6%
-
7%
5%
9%
Base
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Support
41% 42% 38% 44%
37%
Oppose
50% 47% 55% 46%
55%
No Opinion
9% 10%
Age
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
7% 10%
8%
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Heinrich Approval
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Barela Favorability
Approve
40% 42% 36% 44%
34%
Favorable
13% 18% 15% 12%
10%
Disapprove
38% 37% 39% 34%
43%
Unfavorable
15% 28% 13% 16%
12%
Not Sure
23% 21% 24% 21%
23%
Not Sure
72% 55% 72% 72%
78%
November 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-1 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Age
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Heinrich/Barela
Heinrich
45% 35% 42% 48%
45%
Barela
36% 23% 40% 33%
40%
Undecided
19% 42% 18% 19%
15%
November 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-1 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
New Mexico Survey Results
Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Q5
Approve .......................................................... 44%
Teague............................................................ 41%
Disapprove...................................................... 49%
Pearce ............................................................ 43%
Not Sure.......................................................... 7%
Q2
Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion? If you support it, press 1. If you
oppose it, press 2. If you don’t have an opinion,
press 3.
Undecided....................................................... 16%
Q6
Moderate......................................................... 38%
Conservative................................................... 44%
Oppose ........................................................... 53%
Q3
Q4
Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Harry Teague’s job
performance? If you approve, press 1. If you
disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ............................................................. 18%
Support ........................................................... 37%
No Opinion...................................................... 10%
If the candidates for Congress this fall were
Democrat Harry Teague and Republican Steve
Pearce, who would you vote for? If Harry
Teague, press 1. If Steve Pearce, press 2. If
you’re undecided, press 3.
Q7
If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 52%
Man................................................................. 48%
Q8
If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 41%
Democrat ........................................................ 47%
Disapprove...................................................... 36%
Republican...................................................... 40%
Not Sure.......................................................... 22%
Independent/Other .......................................... 13%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Pearce? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Q9
If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic .......................................................... 47%
Favorable........................................................ 43%
White .............................................................. 46%
Unfavorable .................................................... 31%
African American ............................................ 1%
Not Sure.......................................................... 26%
Other............................................................... 6%
February 18-20, 2010
Survey of 400 NM-2 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 8%
30 to 45........................................................... 13%
46 to 65........................................................... 46%
Older than 65 .................................................. 33%
February 18-20, 2010
Survey of 400 NM-2 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Obam a Approval
Approve
44%
80%
61%
13%
Disapprove
49%
14%
30%
81%
Not Sure
7%
6%
9%
6%
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Support
37%
76%
50%
10%
Oppose
53%
16%
32%
86%
No Opinion
10%
8%
18%
4%
Ideology
Ideology
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Teague Approval
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Pearce Favorability
Approve
41%
58%
56%
22%
Favorable
43%
11%
38%
59%
Disapprove
36%
23%
25%
52%
Unfavorable
31%
58%
33%
19%
Not Sure
22%
19%
20%
26%
Not Sure
26%
30%
29%
21%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-2 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Ideology
Gender
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Teague/Pearce
Base Wom an Man
Obam a Approval
Teague
41%
71%
54%
17%
Approve
44%
45% 43%
Pearce
43%
3%
31%
71%
Disapprove
49%
49% 50%
Undecided
16%
26%
15%
12%
Not Sure
7%
Gender
Base Wom an Man
Base Wom an Man
Teague Approval
Support
37%
37% 37%
Oppose
53%
52% 54%
No Opinion
10%
11%
survey of 400 NM-2 voters
8%
Gender
Obam a Health Care
Plan
February 18-20, 2010
6%
Approve
41%
42% 40%
Disapprove
36%
32% 41%
Not Sure
22%
25% 20%
9%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Gender
Gender
Base Wom an Man
Base Wom an Man
Pearce Favorability
Teague/Pearce
Favorable
43%
45% 40%
Teague
41%
35% 47%
Unfavorable
31%
30% 33%
Pearce
43%
44% 43%
26%
25% 27%
Undecided
16%
21% 10%
Not Sure
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Obam a Approval
Approve
44%
72%
14%
33%
Disapprove
49%
20%
82%
57%
Not Sure
7%
8%
4%
10%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-2 voters
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Support
37%
60%
9%
39%
Oppose
53%
23%
86%
60%
No Opinion
10%
17%
5%
1%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Teague Approval
Pearce Favorability
41%
54%
26%
41%
Disapprove
36%
24%
50%
41%
Not Sure
22%
22%
25%
19%
Approve
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
43%
26%
66%
34%
Unfavorable
31%
46%
14%
32%
Not Sure
26%
29%
20%
34%
Favorable
Party
Race
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Teague/Pearce
Teague
41%
64%
14%
41%
Pearce
43%
18%
72%
51%
Undecided
16%
19%
14%
9%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-2 voters
Obam a Approval
Approve
44%
65%
24%
60%
26%
Disapprove
49%
26%
71%
40%
71%
Not Sure
7%
9%
5%
-
3%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Race
Race
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Teague Approval
Support
37%
59%
18%
60%
10%
Oppose
53%
26%
78%
40%
74%
No Opinion
10%
15%
4%
-
16%
Approve
41%
52%
31%
60%
35%
Disapprove
36%
24%
49%
40%
32%
Not Sure
22%
24%
20%
-
32%
Race
Race
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Pearce Favorability
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Teague/Pearce
Favorable
43%
26%
58%
60%
55%
Teague
41%
58%
27%
40%
23%
Unfavorable
31%
41%
24%
40%
13%
Pearce
43%
23%
63%
40%
58%
Not Sure
26%
33%
18%
-
32%
Undecided
16%
20%
11%
20%
19%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-2 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Age
Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Obam a Approval
Approve
44% 42% 37% 53%
34%
Disapprove
49% 27% 61% 41%
61%
Not Sure
7% 30%
2%
6%
5%
Base
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Support
37% 42% 31% 44%
29%
Oppose
53% 25% 64% 47%
63%
No Opinion
10% 33%
Age
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
5%
9%
8%
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Teague Approval
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Pearce Favorability
Approve
41% 30% 46% 44%
38%
Favorable
43% 25% 40% 40%
52%
Disapprove
36% 26% 39% 37%
37%
Unfavorable
31% 40% 34% 33%
26%
Not Sure
22% 44% 15% 19%
25%
Not Sure
26% 35% 26% 27%
23%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-2 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Age
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Teague/Pearce
Teague
41% 51% 39% 43%
37%
Pearce
43% 16% 50% 39%
53%
Undecided
16% 33% 11% 19%
9%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-2 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
New Mexico Survey Results
Q1
Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Q6
Approve .......................................................... 45%
Lujan ............................................................... 40%
Disapprove...................................................... 47%
Kokesh............................................................ 32%
Not Sure.......................................................... 8%
Q2
Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion? If you support it, press 1. If you
oppose it, press 2. If you don’t have an opinion,
press 3.
Undecided....................................................... 28%
Q7
Support ........................................................... 40%
Mullins............................................................. 36%
No Opinion...................................................... 9%
Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Ben Lujan’s job performance? If
you approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press
2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
Undecided....................................................... 22%
Q8
Moderate......................................................... 36%
Disapprove...................................................... 40%
Q4
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Adam Kokesh? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable........................................................ 4%
Unfavorable .................................................... 17%
Not Sure.......................................................... 79%
Q5
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Mullins? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ............................................................. 24%
Approve .......................................................... 31%
Not Sure.......................................................... 29%
If the candidates for Congress this fall were
Democrat Ben Lujan and Republican Tom
Mullins, who would you vote for? If Ben Lujan,
press 1. If Tom Mullins, press 2. If you’re
undecided, press 3.
Lujan ............................................................... 42%
Oppose ........................................................... 51%
Q3
If the candidates for Congress this fall were
Democrat Ben Lujan and Republican Adam
Kokesh, who would you vote for? If Ben Lujan,
press 1. If Adam Kokesh, press 2. If you’re
undecided, press 3.
Conservative................................................... 40%
Q9
If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 52%
Man................................................................. 48%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 54%
Republican...................................................... 33%
Independent/Other .......................................... 12%
Independent/Other..........................................
Favorable........................................................ 10%
Unfavorable .................................................... 8%
Not Sure.......................................................... 81%
February 18-20, 2010
Survey of 400 NM-3 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Q11 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic .......................................................... 35%
White .............................................................. 57%
African American ............................................ 1%
Other............................................................... 7%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 5%
30 to 45........................................................... 22%
46 to 65........................................................... 50%
Older than 65 .................................................. 23%
February 18-20, 2010
Survey of 400 NM-3 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Obam a Approval
Approve
45%
83%
57%
10%
Disapprove
47%
7%
35%
83%
Not Sure
8%
10%
8%
7%
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Support
41%
85%
47%
7%
Oppose
50%
11%
41%
84%
No Opinion
9%
4%
12%
9%
Ideology
Ideology
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Lujan Approval
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Kokesh Favorability
Approve
29%
52%
36%
8%
Favorable
5%
3%
3%
7%
Disapprove
42%
18%
33%
67%
Unfavorable
18%
26%
17%
13%
Not Sure
29%
30%
31%
25%
Not Sure
77%
70%
80%
80%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-3 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Ideology
Ideology
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Mullins Favorability
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Lujan/Kokesh
Favorable
10%
6%
5%
18%
Lujan
39%
74%
46%
9%
Unfavorable
9%
11%
10%
8%
Kokesh
33%
10%
20%
59%
Not Sure
81%
84%
85%
75%
Undecided
28%
16%
33%
31%
Ideology
Gender
Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Lujan/Mullins
Base Wom an Man
Obam a Approval
Lujan
40%
77%
49%
9%
Approve
45%
46% 44%
Mullins
38%
9%
24%
70%
Disapprove
47%
44% 50%
Undecided
21%
14%
27%
20%
Not Sure
8%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-3 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
10%
6%
Crosstabs
Gender
Gender
Base Wom an Man
Base Wom an Man
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Lujan Approval
Support
41%
43% 38%
Oppose
50%
47% 54%
No Opinion
9%
9%
32% 26%
Disapprove
42%
38% 48%
Not Sure
29%
31% 26%
Gender
Gender
Base Wom an Man
Base Wom an Man
Mullins Favorability
5%
Favorable
10%
18%
15% 21%
Unfavorable
9%
77%
81% 74%
Not Sure
81%
Favorable
5%
Unfavorable
Not Sure
survey of 400 NM-3 voters
29%
8%
Kokesh Favorability
February 18-20, 2010
Approve
4%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
10% 11%
10%
8%
81% 81%
Crosstabs
Gender
Gender
Base Wom an Man
Base Wom an Man
Lujan/Kokesh
Lujan/Mullins
Lujan
39%
42% 35%
Lujan
40%
44% 37%
Kokesh
33%
29% 37%
Mullins
38%
33% 45%
28%
29% 27%
Undecided
21%
24% 18%
Undecided
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Obam a Approval
Approve
45%
73%
5%
35%
Disapprove
47%
17%
91%
54%
Not Sure
8%
10%
4%
11%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-3 voters
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Support
41%
68%
4%
32%
Oppose
50%
22%
92%
54%
No Opinion
9%
10%
4%
14%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Lujan Approval
Kokesh Favorability
29%
47%
4%
22%
Disapprove
42%
24%
71%
42%
Not Sure
29%
28%
25%
36%
Approve
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
5%
5%
4%
6%
Unfavorable
18%
20%
15%
17%
Not Sure
77%
75%
81%
77%
Favorable
Party
Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
Mullins Favorability
Lujan/Kokesh
10%
5%
Unfavorable
9%
Not Sure
81%
Favorable
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-3 voters
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
17%
13%
Lujan
39%
64%
5%
26%
10%
8%
86%
75%
10%
Kokesh
33%
12%
72%
19%
77%
Undecided
28%
24%
23%
55%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Party
Race
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Lujan/Mullins
40%
66%
4%
34%
Mullins
38%
14%
81%
29%
Undecided
21%
21%
15%
36%
Lujan
Obam a Approval
Approve
45%
48%
41%
45%
61%
Disapprove
47%
39%
52%
41%
39%
Not Sure
8%
13%
7%
14%
-
Race
Race
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Lujan Approval
Support
41%
37%
41%
45%
51%
Oppose
50%
47%
53%
41%
44%
No Opinion
9%
16%
7%
14%
4%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-3 voters
Approve
29%
34%
26%
14%
39%
Disapprove
42%
38%
45%
72%
31%
Not Sure
29%
28%
29%
14%
31%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Race
Race
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Kokesh Favorability
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Mullins Favorability
Favorable
5%
6%
4%
31%
-
Favorable
10%
10%
10%
31%
7%
Unfavorable
18%
12%
19%
-
31%
Unfavorable
9%
8%
9%
-
18%
Not Sure
77%
81%
77%
69%
69%
Not Sure
81%
82%
81%
69%
75%
Race
Race
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Lujan/Kokesh
African
Base Hispanic White Am erican Other
Lujan/Mullins
Lujan
39%
49%
34%
31%
41%
Lujan
40%
49%
36%
59%
45%
Kokesh
33%
26%
38%
-
24%
Mullins
38%
28%
44%
31%
35%
Undecided
28%
25%
27%
69%
35%
Undecided
21%
23%
21%
10%
20%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-3 voters
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
Crosstabs
Age
Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Obam a Approval
Approve
45% 33% 50% 47%
35%
Disapprove
47% 44% 43% 48%
57%
Not Sure
8% 22%
8%
5%
8%
Base
Obam a Health Care
Plan
Support
41% 39% 38% 47%
30%
Oppose
50% 44% 53% 47%
60%
No Opinion
9% 17% 10%
Age
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Base
9%
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Kokesh Favorability
Approve
29% 22% 26% 33%
28%
Favorable
Disapprove
42% 61% 45% 37%
43%
Not Sure
29% 17% 29% 31%
29%
survey of 400 NM-3 voters
6%
Age
Lujan Approval
February 18-20, 2010
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
5% 17%
4%
2%
Unfavorable
18% 22% 18% 16%
21%
Not Sure
77% 61% 79% 80%
77%
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
4%
Crosstabs
Age
Base
Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Mullins Favorability
10% 11%
Unfavorable
9% 22%
9% 11%
10%
Lujan
39% 33% 39% 41%
34%
8%
7%
10%
Kokesh
33% 39% 33% 32%
35%
81% 67% 84% 82%
79%
Undecided
28% 28% 29% 27%
31%
Age
Base
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Lujan/Mullins
Lujan
40% 33% 40% 44%
34%
Mullins
38% 56% 34% 38%
39%
Undecided
21% 11% 26% 18%
27%
February 18-20, 2010
survey of 400 NM-3 voters
18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65
Lujan/Kokesh
Favorable
Not Sure
Base
3020 Highwoods Blvd.
Raleigh, NC 27604
[email protected] / 888 621-6988
