Ryan Shafik Memo #2 Corbett v Rendell

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To: News Media and All Interested Parties From : Ryan Shafik, Rockwood Strategies Date: January 9, 2013 Re: Claims that Gov. Corbett’s numbers are the same as Rendell’s at this time. __________________________________________________________________

“Claim #1: Ed Rendell had worse numbers six months later in July of 2005.

From Quinnipiac Poll July 2005: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/pollinginstitute/pennsylvania/release-detail/?ReleaseID=811  Rendell still lead Swann by 12 points and was in positive approval territory by (+) 8. “Pennsylvania voters give Gov. Ed Rendell a 47 - 39 percent approval rating, his lowest since a 46 - 33 percent approval in an April 22, 2004, Quinnipiac University poll.”

 Corbett is in negative territory by 14 points and tied or only up a few points against potential Democrat opponents and is in the low 40s. Rendell was never in the low 40s against any opponent and not in July of 2005. “Rendell still leads several possible Republican challengers: 47 - 37 percent over former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton, 48 - 36 percent over former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann, 51 - 28 percent over State Sen. Jeff Piccola.”

Claim #2: Rendell’s numbers were sub 40 in February of 2006 -the year of the election.

From Quinnipiac Polls February 2006

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/releasedetail/?ReleaseID=874

 Rendell was up in the February Quinnipiac 2006. “Rendell has a 51 - 33 percent approval rate among Pennsylvania voters, virtually unchanged from December 13 2005. Same Poll Democratic incumbent Gov. Ed Rendell starts his 2006 reelection campaign with a 48 - 36 percent lead over former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann, the leading Republican challenger in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.”  Not only did Rendell have a 12-point lead among Swann in Feb 2006 but he had a (+) 18 approval rating at this time.

Conclusion: To try to say that Governor Corbett’s numbers are on par with Gov. Rendell’s at this time and were worse in February of 2006 is not factually accurate. While Rendell may have lost some support and experienced changes in his polling numbers, they never got upside down like Corbett is now experiencing. And furthermore, Rendell never had a (-) 27 point disapproval gender gap problem that Corbett is dealing with. Corbett’s numbers could improve but given the fact that the Penn State issue looms large over his administration and will probably receive much more negative press in the coming year, it makes Corbett’s job of rehabbing his numbers a lot tougher and in turn, his reelection fight much more difficult.

*Sources: (2005 and 2012 Quinnipiac and 2013 PPP Polls) Contact: [email protected]

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