Smartphones

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SMARTPHONES

Android smartphones made up 56% of the global smartphones sold to end users in the first quarter of 2012, giving them a far higher share than the 22.9% held by Apple's runner-up iPhone, Gartner said Wednesday. According to Gartner's data, Samsung was by far the biggest Android smartphone maker as its devices accounted for nearly 44% of Android-based smartphone sales. The other Android vendors, including HTC or Motorola, were all at 10% or less, Gartner said. With the 34.5 million Samsung Android smartphones sold ( a 23.9% share), the South Korean manufacturer beat out the 33.1 million Apple iPhones sold (a 22.9% share), according to the Gartner tally. Earlier this month, IDC estimated that Samsung shipped more smartphones to retailers than Apple in the first quarter. IDC said that Samsung shipped a record 42.2 million smartphones in the quarter compared to 35.1 million Apple iPhones.

Combined, Samsung and iPhone account for one of every two smartphones sold, which makes the business fairly dire for competitors such as Research in Motion and Microsoft, Gartner noted. RIM accounted for 6.9 % of the 144.3 million smartphones sold in the first quarter, while Microsoft sold just 1.9% of the total. While Gartner noted that about 44 million more smartphones were sold in the first quarter compared to the same period last year, the number of mobile phones in the all-inclusive market declined by 2% to 419 million. It's the first time mobile phone sales have declined since since the second quarter of 2009. Gartner blamed slower demand in the Asia/Pacific region.

Smartphones Q3 Final Numbers, Top 10 biggest manufacturers, operating systems, installed base etc
So its that time of the year. We're in the Smartphone Bloodbath wars, Year Three: Digital Jamboree. Its Q3. We now have all four big analyst houses who have reported their total market size numbers (IDC, Gartner, Strategy Analytics and Canalys) and as I always do, I use their average as my 'official total' and then fit the best possible fit, of the biggest manufacturers, operating systems etc to get the Top 10 market shares. I also report on the installed base, and for every quarter, I report individually for the manufacturers, how I think they're doing in the market share wars. So lets start with the top numbers

TEN BIGGEST SMARTPHONE MANUFACTURERS BY UNIT SALES IN Q3 2012

Rank . Maker . . . . . . Units . . . Market Share . Was in Q2 of 2012 . . OS supported (coming) 1 . . . . Samsung . . . 56.2 M . . 32.8 % . . . . . .( 32.9 %) . . . . . . . . . Android, bada, Windows, (Tizen) 2 . . . . Apple . . . . . . 26.9 M . . 15.7 % . . . . . . ( 17.0 %) . . . . . . . . . iOS 3 . . . . Huawei . . . . . 16.0 M . . . 9.3 % . . . . . . ( 4.6 %) . . . . . . . . . Android, (Tizen) 4 . . . . Sony . . . . . . . 8.8 M . . . 5.1 % . . . . . . ( 4.9 %) . . . . . . . . . Android 5 . . . . ZTE . . . . . . . . 8.0 M . . . 4.7 % . . . . . . ( 5.2 %) . . . . . . . . . Android, Windows 6 . . . . HTC . . . . . . . . 7.8 M . . . 4.6 % . . . . . . ( 5.8 %) . . . . . . . . . Android, Windows 7 . . . . RIM . . . . . . . . 7.4 M . . . 4.3 % . . . . . . ( 5.1 %) . . . . . . . . . Blackberry 8 . . . . LG . . . . . . . . . 7.2 M . . . 4.2 % . . . . . . ( 4.2 %) . . . . . . . . . Android 9 . . . . Lenovo . . . . . . 7.0 M . . . 4.1 % . . . . . . ( 3.9 %) . . . . . . . . . Android 10 . . . Nokia . . . . . . . 6.3 M . . . 3.7 % . . . . . . ( 6.7 %) . . . . . . . . Symbian, Windows, MeeGo Others . . . . . . . . . . . 19.8 M . . 11.6 % . . . . . . ( 7.3 %) . . . . . . . . Android, Windows, others, (MeeGo), (Tizen) TOTAL . . . . . . . . . 171.4 M Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 14, 2012 from vendor data and other sources This table may be freely distributed

So, first, Moto-Moto falls out of the top 10? Wow, goodbuy Google smartphones, eh? And who jumps in to replace it? Lenovo with its LePhone. Didn't you know Lenovo makes smartphones? I'm not surprised, so far they've only sold in China but are now eagerly

expanding for example into India. Yes, already a Top 10 sized smartphone maker and yes, this is the same Lenovo from China that bought IBM's branded PC operations some years ago.

Other big news, Nokia tumbles from 3rd place to 10th, and is facing expulsion from the Top 10 as well - there's another hungry Chinese smartphone maker, Yulong, which sells smartphones under the Coolpad brand, who may topple Nokia already in Q4. The top is settled, Samsung rules this race now and Apple is in secure second place. Huawei is jumping ahead of the rest of the pack, and watch Sony, it finally is back to making smartphones profitably and showing aggression on the chart. Now lets look at the smartphone operating systems:

BIGGEST SMARTPHONE OPERATING SYSTEMS BY UNIT SALES IN Q3 2012

Rank . OS Platform . . . . Units . . . . Market share . Was Q2 2012 . . Manufacturers in Top 10 1 . . . . Android . . . . . . . 121.2 M . . 70.7 % . . . . . ( 66.9 %) . . . . . Samsung, Huawei, Sony, ZTE, HTC, LG, Lenovo 2 . . . . iOS . . . . . . . . . . 26.9 M . . 15.7 % . . . . . ( 17.0 %) . . . . . Apple 3 . . . . Blackberry . . . . . . 7.4 M . . .. 4.3 % . . . . . ( 5.1 %) . . . . . . RIM 4 . . . . bada . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 M . . .. 3.0 % . . . . . ( 2.7 %) . . . . . . Samsung 5 . . . . Symbian . . . . . . . 3.4 M . . .. 2.0 % . . . . . ( 3.3 %) . . . . . . Nokia 6 . . . . Windows Phone . . 3.3 M . . .. 1.9 % . . . . . ( 3.0 %) . . . . . . Samsung, HTC, Nokia others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 M . . .. 2.3 % . . . . . ( 1.1 %) TOTAL . . . . . . . . . . . . 171.4 M Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 14, 2012 from vendor data and other sources This table may be freely distributed

So yes, the so-called 'third ecosystem' Windows Phone did peak last quarter never coming close to its promise, and is again now in decline. 20 months after Nokia's CEO announced the death of Symbian, that old battered operating system based smartphones still outsell all Windows Phone smartphones, now when Windows Phone is two years of age - and obviously, Samsung's bada outsells both of those. On the top, Google's Android rules the world selling 7 out of every 10 smartphones on the planet. Apple's iOS is the second biggest smartphone OS, with Blackberry solidly in third place, now eagerly awaiting its 'savior' OS

upgrade, BB10, with its first smartphones expected in the Spring. Symbian will probably finally fall below Windows Phone now for Christmas sales, but don't hold your breath, Windows Phone is proving a horrid and hated OS by the retail channel. So then lets look at the installed base

INSTALLED BASE OF SMARTPHONES BY OPERATING SYSTEM AS OF Q3 2012

Rank . OS Platform . . . . Units . . . Market share Was Q2 2012 . Main Manufacturers of current base 1 . . . . Android . . . . . . . 559 M . . . 48 % . . . . . . ( 41 %) . . . . . . Samsung, HTC, Huawei, Sony, Motorola, ZTE, LG, SonyEricsson, Lenovo 2 . . . . iOS . . . . . . . . . 217 M . . . 19 % . . . . . . ( 19 %) . . . . . . Apple 3 . . . . Symbian . . . . . . 213 M . . . 18 % . . . . . . ( 25 %) . . . . . . Nokia, Sharp, Panasonic, Fujitsu, Samsung, SonyEricsson 4 . . . . Blackberry . . . . 109 M . . . . 9 % . . . . . . ( 10 %) . . . . . . RIM 5 . . . . bada . . . . . . . . . . 24 M . . . 2 % . . . . . . ( 2 %) . . . . . . Samsung 6 . . . . Windows Phone . . 17 M . . . 1 % . . . . . . ( 1 %) . . . . . . Nokia, HTC, Samsung, ZTE 7 . . . . Windows Mobile . . 10 M . . 1 % . . . . . . ( 1 %) . . . . . . HTC, Samsung, LG, SonyEricsson, Palm, Motorola Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 M . . . 1 % . . . . . . ( 2 %) TOTAL Installed Base . 1,166 M smartphones in use at end of Q3 2012 Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 14, 2012 from vendor data and other sources This table may be freely distributed

So Symbian is now passed by iOS in installed base globally of smartphones. Other than that, no changes. The total count of smartphones in use is nearly 1.2 Billion and growing fast, we'll soon have more smartphones in use than all kinds of traditional PCs (desktops, laptops, notebooks, netbooks) when tablets are excluded. It will take a couple of quarters further, for smartphones to be more than half of all computing devices used, even when tablets are included in the other side of the equation.

BIGGEST MANUFACTURERS ANALYSIS

So then lets do the biggest manufacturers and their analysis. Again, this is starting to be

pretty meaningless, as most big manufactuers now do most of their smartphones on Android, and gradually, most are also becoming profitable, the big 'war' seems to be coming to a close. But lets do this, as usual, in order of size. So Sammy goes first

SAMSUNG - 56.2M smartphones, 32.8% market share - profitable - B+

Samsung grew by 12% from Q2 which is a healthy growth rate. They report very good strong profits out of their handset unit and have now moved their migration rate from dumbphones to smartphones, at past half-point. All good news, all going very well for the Sammy. Except, that they are now 'only' growing at the rate of the industry. So I can't give them an A anymore as a school grade, I am grading Samsung as a B. We now await their first move into Tizen, the next Galaxy flaghship, the Galaxy S4 isn't expected to be released until after Christmas in the first quarter of 2013, so there isn't much excitement for the gift-giving season either. Good job but there were others that did a great job this quarter. Oh, and for those who want to see the split of Samsung's operating system choices, its this:

SAMSUNG SMARTPHONES SOLD IN Q3 BY OPERATING SYSTEM Samsung on Android . . . . . . . .90% Samsung on bada . . . . . . . . . . 9% Samsung on Windows Phone . . 1% Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 15, 2012 from vendor data and other sources This table may be freely distributed

APPLE - 26.9 M smartphones, 15.7% market share - profitable - B

Apple did a good job again in Q3 (remember, we deal in calendar quarters here, not the fiscal quarters of given companies, so Q3 for Apple on our blog is always calendar quarter July to September). The iPhone is generating by far the biggest share of Apple's total profits, the usual decline trend of the once-per-year launch cycle of the new model would say this last quarter is bad, but as Apple cleverly releases its latest model right in the last week of the previous last quarter, this Q3 - that boosts their sales right at the end, and thus Apple showed a modest gain of 3% compared to Q2. Its less than the industry, but Apple's sales pattern as we know, is an annual 'step ladder' model, not a continuous growth curve, so this is not a bad sign. The big step is always the first full sales quarter of the new model, ie the

iPhone 4 for Christmas 2012, ie now. And all signs suggest its going to be a big banner year again for Apple. What more can I say, they only use one OS platform. Lets move to strongly surging number three

HUAWEI - 16.0 million smartphones, 9.3% market share - profitable - A+

Huawei is surging strongly, becoming somewhat 'The Samsung of China' compared to the other Chinese smartphone makers, much like Samsung is far ahead of LG and Pantech in Korea. Huawei management said a few weeks ago that they are on target to hit 50 million total smartphone sales this year, so that means they are far outperforming their nearest Chinese rival ZTE which is reporting a lack of progress towards their sales targets. Huawei does all of its smartphones on Android, is profitable, grew 45% from Q2, that is definitely a performance worth an A+

SONY - 8.8 million smartphones, 5.1% market share - profitable - A

Welcome back to the strong team, Sony! Finally Sony is back where we expect the powerful consumer brand to be. It is growing far faster than the industry - grew 19% from Q2 and is reporting healthy profits out of smartphones once they abandoned the unprofitable Windows nonesense and concentrated on Android. The Sony migration from dumbphones to smartphones is nearly complete. They now command 5% market share which is twice what they had two years ago when it was still the SonyEricsson partnership selling smartphones on all platforms including Symbian. I grade Sony for Q3 as a solid A.

ZTE - 8.0 million smartphones, 4.7% market share - profitable - C

ZTE was doing well but now is stumbling a bit, they kept pace in size from Q2 while the industry grew by 11%, so in reality, ZTE is falling behind. ZTE sells primarily on Android but also in tiny numbers on Windows Phone. They are profitable, I grade them a C

HTC - 7.8 million smartphones, 4.6% market share - profitable - D

HTC is moving seriously backwards in the pack. HTC is actually declining in shipment numbers and fell 11% when the industry grew by 11%. They are reporting almost perennially 'worse' profits per quarter, still profits yes, but ever diminishing. HTC does 3% of its

smartphones on Windows Phone and 97% on Android. I grade HTC as a D.

RIM - 7.4 million smartphones, 4.3% market share - loss-making - F

RIM three years ago this time was the second biggest smartphone maker in the world with 21% market share, strong growth, and highly profitable, highly desirable enterprise and consumer smartphones. Then they decided to take their eyes off the ball, launched a tablet, wasted all their marketing effort in that disaster, lost their position in the consumer space and badly stumbled in the enterprise space. One year later, they were at 15% market share, and two years later at 9%. Now, three years after their peak, they are at 4% and falling. RIM sales fell 5% in units from Q2 and they report a loss. This is a performance worth an F. The only silver lining, the new BB10 operating system is ready, the reviews of it are great, and the first new Blackberry 10 smartphones are coming in Q1 of 2013. Expect one more quarter of severe pain at Waterloo, then hopefully we see a turnaround in this former powerhouse puwer smartphone maker.

LG - 7.2 million smartphones, 4.2% market share - profitable - B

Hey, LG is finally back! Life is Good, isn't it? They are finally back from the pain of Windows and at purely Android, are finally back to reporting profits again. LG grew 11% from Q2 which is the same pace as the industry. I grade LG as a B.

LENOVO - 7.0 million smartphones, 4.1% market share - profitable - A

And welcome to the Top 10 for the first time ever for Lenovo of China better known for having bought IBM's personal computer business a few years ago. You never saw a Lenovo branded smartphone, which they cleverly branded as the LePhone? That must mean you don't live in China then. Up to now, LePhones have not been sold in other countries than China, but Lenovo has become the third bestselling smartphone brand of China domestic market already behind only Samsung and Huawei. So yes, those 7.0 million smartphones were all sold just in China in Q3 (the world's biggest smartphone market growing faster than most others, already accounting for 3 out of every 10 smartphones sold globally). Now, Lenovo is aiming for world domination, so they are just launching their first international expansion to India. Lenovos are all powered by Android (interesting choice, isn't it, considering how close Lenovo is/was to Microsoft with Windows haha). Yes, welcome to the

Top 10. For strong growth from Q2 and profitable business, I grade Lenovo's first appearance on our Bloodbath blog series, at a full A.

NOKIA - 6.3 million smartphones, 3.7% market share - loss-making - F-

Nokia 21 months ago was the world's biggest smartphone maker so huge, it towered over all rivals, bigger than its next two rivals, combined! More than twice the size of its nearest rival at the time, Apple and four times bigger than Samsung. Nokia's smartphone unit just 21 months ago reported record growth and record profits and a Nokia record jump in profitability. Nokia's smartphone unit was growing faster than Apple's on an annualized basis. Yes, that all was voluntarily thrown away by the new CEO. Today under new CEO Stephen Elop's mismanagement and misguided Windows strategy, the Nokia smartphone unit has tumbled to 10th in the Top 10 and may fall out of the Top 10 by Q4 of 2012. Nokia is literally only one quarter the size of Apple and one ninth the size of Samsung, and Nokia's smartphone unit keeps reporting ever more hideously huge losses. Its Windows Phone based 'Lumia' series sales peaked in Q2 and even those are now in decline, never having captured even 3% market share at its peak. Compare that to Nokia's own Symbian which had literally almost 10 times better market performance, literally, 29% market share, when Elop announced this idiotic strategy. So how is the magnificent Windows Phone doing for Nokia now, in Q3? Surely, after a year of selling that 'wonderful' Microsoft based OS, it must do better than the 'obsolete' Symbian by now? This is Nokia's split of smartphone sales in Q3:

NOKIA SMARTPHONES SOLD IN Q3 BY OPERATING SYSTEM Nokia smartphones on Symbian/Meego . . . . 54% Nokia smartphones on Windows Phone . . . . 46% Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 15, 2012 from vendor data and other sources This table may be freely distributed

Thats pretty pathetic for Windows Phone and Lumia. The new Lumia re-launch is now going on in Q4 with Windows Phone 8 which is supposed to be all that you ever wanted in a smartphone OS - where have we heard that before, again, and again, and again? No, it won't set the world on fire. Windows Phone 8 based smartphones will never even match the peak of the Windows Phone 7 smartphone market share - which was 3% - and these new

Lumia smartphones will capture only a fraction of that total. This is a suicidal strategy, every other handset maker who tried Windows as the primary system has died doing it, or bled so much in losses, they abandoned that path. Nokia will be gone unless it shifts now to Android (like every other Windows maker of the past who survived, and far more likely Nokia is already so damaged, they will simply die as a smarpthone maker. As I predicted on 11 February, 2011, the Microsoft 'partnership' will be good for Microsoft but deadly for Nokia, and that in the end, Nokia will become a slave to Microsoft and turn into a low-cost 'box mover' like Dell in personal computers, with tiny margins at best. The glory days of Nokia are far past. And yes, its very likely that the next time I write this quarterly analysis, Nokia will no longer even be listed as a Top 10 maker, because there are hungry fast-growing Chinese Android-powered low-cost smartphone makers - led by Yulong, very hungry to get into the global Top 10. Yulong sells its smartphones under the brand Coolpad. Keep your eyes on them, very possibly will kick Nokia out of the Top 10 as soon as Q4 of 2012. For Nokia's loss-making disasterous Q3 when the industry grew 11% from Q2, Nokia smartphone sales declined .. wait for it .. 38% !!! in just one quarter !!! This is one of the worst one-quarter performances by any smartphone maker ever seen, unfortunately I can't give them a worse grade than an F-

MOTOROLA (Google) - fell out of Top 10

Yes, just a brief mention, Moto-Moto is soon dead as a Dodo-Dodo.. They fell out of the Top 10 already globally and are shrinking and making losses and Google is firing a lot of their staff globally. They make some nice top-end smartphone models, but in miniscule numbers now.

OPERATING SYSTEMS

So then lets do the same for the operating systems.. And as before, in order of size, first comes Google's own juggernaut, already selling more smartphones and tablets powering this operating system every quarter, than all Windows powered personal computers, tablets and smartphones - combined! Here we go..

ANDROID - 121.2 Million smartphones, 70.7% market share

Android has won the race by now, yes powering 7 out of every 10 smartphone sold globally

and more amazingly, over four times more Android smartphones are sold than the second bestselling smartphone OS in the world (iOS on iPhones). There really is no longer a 'race' in this side of the smartphone bloodbath, congratulations Google for winning the biggest battle in tech, ever. And winning it quite decisively, in very short time. Just two years ago, Android was only half the size of Symbian and had just overtaken Apple's iOS and Blackberry for second place. Yes, only a short 27 months ago, in Q2 of 2010, Android was in fourth place among smartphone OS platforms by new sales. Now they command the market and are more than four times bigger than number two and 16 times bigger than Blackberry, and 35 times bigger than Symbian and 37 times bigger than the next 'multi-vendor' OS platform, Microsoft's Windows Phone. Ok, how do those Android manufacturers split up this booty? Here are the market shares internally for Android makers:

ANDROID SMARTPHONES SOLD IN Q3 BY MANUFACTURER Samsung . . . . . . . . 42% Huawei . . . . . . . . . . 13% Sony . . . . . . . . . . . . 7% HTC . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6% LG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6% Lenovo . . . . . . . . . . . 6% Others . . . . . . . . . . 20% Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 15, 2012 from vendor data and other sources This table may be freely distributed

iOS - 26.9 million smartphones, 15.7% market share

Apple's iOS is doing its steady second place job as the most expensive premium smartphone platform out there, loved by its users with incredible loyalty. The market share growth has slowed to a snail's pace. It was 14% this quarter two years ago, 15% last year this time and now slightly under 16%. I have been calling for Apple to make a global shift, release lower-cost smartphones, and end the one-new-model-per-year cycle. Apple does that with its Macs and iPods and even the iPad has broadened its product range, but with the iPhone, they stick to only one new model per year. They are leaving a lot of money on the table, and perhaps unrecoverable market share, that now is going to Android.

BLACKBERRY - 7.4 million smartphones, 4.3% market share

Yeah, same story here as in the above. Blackberry hurting and have to suffer one more quarter before the new BB10 smartphones arrive. Luckily for RIM, they have enterprise customers as their primary customer segment, who are not as fashion-oriented to run after the latest shiniest device, but make decisions on several-year horizons, and are willing to keep buying some Blackberries for their employees as they await BB10.

bada - 5.2 million smartphones, 3% market share

And Samsung's bada is a very rare animal at most Western markets, perhaps with the exception of France but is doing brisk sales in places like Russia and India. This OS was launched at the same time as the highly visible Windows Phone two years ago, and quietly, targeting low-cost customers, only powered by Samsung brand, where the primary Samsung effort went to Android, this little engine that could has totally bested Microsoft's effort, even where Nokia was brought in to put the best Lumia effort to sell Windows Phone. bada holds a steady 3% market share globally, as Samsung is preparing to do the first launches of its new OS, Tizen, developed with Intel and which is expected to take over or be merged with the bada project. First Tizen smartphones are expected to be out in early 2013 and one of the early prototype handsets is, no surprise here, a port of the Galaxy S3 to Tizen. Tizen also has many global operator/carrier groups supporting it, so if you ever thought what the carriers meant when they said they wanted a new platform to rival Android and iOS, they were not talking about Windows, they were talking about Tizen. So who are those operators supporting Tizen then? Telefonica, Sprint, Vodafone, Orange, NTT DoCoMo, SK Telecom.. Plus manufacturers part of Tizen alliance include Panasonic, NEC and Huawei. Do not dismiss this challenger for next year...

SYMBIAN - 3.4 million smartphones, 2.0% market share

Nokia's Symbian is now really on its last legs. The last new smarpthone we saw on it was the 808 Pureview, and even as Nokia fumbled that launch, not producing enough of the highly popular and highly demanded (really? Yes, so said Nokia, they couldn't match demand and severely underestimated its sales when it launched) super cameraphone. But that time is now over, Symbian sales fell 32% just from Q2 and with only obsolete devices for the Christmas market, expect Symbian sales to plummet now. Obviously all last

remaining partners of Symbian had quit this OS and what remains are truly only Nokia branded sales.

WINDOWS PHONE - 3.3 million smartphones, 1.9% market share

Windows Phone had its peak share just hitting 3% one quarter ago, but then Microsoft announced that none of the current phones can be upgrade to Windows Phone 8, and just like all major analysts suggested, the sales would collapse as they did. Windows Phone sales fell 28% in just one quarter (where that announcement came within that quarter, so we have not even seen a full quarter's effect yet). Now Microsoft is rolling out Windows Phone 8, with ever less new handset manufacturers sticking with Microsoft, each doing ever less actual devices and ever less actual markets. Its essentially only Nokia left with Microsoft. This is the split of Windows Phone smartphone sales in Q3:

WINDOWS PHONE SMARTPHONES SOLD IN Q3 BY MANUFACTURER Nokia . . . . . . . . . . . 88% Samsung . . . . . . . . . 5% HTC . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5% Others . . . . . . . . . . . 2% Source: TomiAhonen Consulting Estimates November 15, 2012 from vendor data and other sources This table may be freely distributed

Windows Phone 8 will now include full Skype integration. Do you think that will thrill the carriers/operators into fully supporting WP8 if they were lukewarm to WP7 ? Remember what Nokia's CEO Stephen Elop said about do carriers love Skype? He said, and I quote "feedback from the operators is, that they don't like Skype, of course." Where did Stephen Elop utter that statement? To the Nokia shareholders meeting this Spring! That was after they had seen Lumia with Windows Phone 7 - that did not have Skype pre-installed - and before the carriers had been given the chance to see the new Lumia which comes with Windows Phone 8, fully integrating Skype. And yes, Microsoft brings that full Skype integration to the destktop on Windows 8 etc. A billion new competitors to the main profit engine and revenue source for carriers, voice traffic (especially international voice traffic) and messaging. No wonder the carriers hate Skype. Do not think Windows Phone 8 can outperform Windows Phone 7. The carriers not just hate Skype, they hate Microsoft for

owning Skype and funding their biggest threat to the very financial survival of the telecoms operators/carriers.

MEEGO - in hybernation

I'll just mention briefly MeeGo. It has emerged that Nokia had 3 MeeGo devices ready to sell last year, only relased one for sale, the highly-praised and beloved N9, and manufactured its sister device, the N950, in tiny numbers but didn't sell that. I speculated on this blog, based on my analysis of some of Nokia's strong markets like China and Nokia statements (or lack thereof) about MeeGo and N9 performance, that in the first two quarters when both Lumia series on Windows Phone, and the sole N9 on MeeGo, the MeeGo unit sales actually exceeded all of Windows Phone. Well, that is water under the bridge. We never got a formal word from Nokia on the specific numbers of MeeGo sales. And many thought MeeGo was over, until.. a small start-up in Finland, formed out of ex-Nokia ex-MeeGo people, called Jolla, had launched. Jolla is expected to introduce its first handset still this year, and start to sell smartphones powered my MeeGo (or likely, a further developed version of that operating system) soon. Lets not forget MeeGo. But lets say, it is in hybernation. But if you loved the N9 or N950, just imagine what the next MeeGo device could have been. We may well see that, in the first Jolla device soon...

Ok, that should be the analysis of Q3, in the Electric Jamboree. We will return in early February 2013 for the Q4 results and full-year 2012 results as per usual. Also at that time, we can find out who won the reader contest to guess what will be Windows Phone market share now this Q4 of 2012. If you wanted earlier numbers, Q2 of 2012 is here. Meanwhile, enjoy the stats, and remember all this data is free to be shared

India Smartphone Outlook for 2012
Posted on February 13, 2012 by Jayanth Kolla

2011 was the first big year for smartphones in India. Convergence Catalyst estimates between 9 to 9.5M smartphones to have been sold in India in 2011. October was a landmark month having witnessed smartphone sales crossing the 1 million mark. The year was also significant in that Smartphones breached the $100 price point with Android devices being launched in the market in Q4, 2011.

Although Nokia had a strong lead in the smartphone segment in the first half of the year (started the year with close to 60% and ended Q4 with sub 40% share), Samsung has gained significant market share in the last two quarters and is the player to watch in 2012. Both Android and Bada gained significant market share in Q4, 2011 largely due to Samsung’s strong momentum in the smartphone segment. Growth of Android can also be attributed to the availability on multiple brands and in a range of price points and it’s acceptance by the retail channel as well as consumers. By Q4 2011, Android share in India grew close to that of Symbian and is expected to overtake it in 2012. Indian and Chinese handset OEMS are yet to replicate their feature phone success in the smartphone segment in spite of having gradually entered the Smartphone industry with Android devices through 2011.

India Smartphone Outlook for 2012: Convergence Catalyst estimates Smartphone sales to grow by approximately 100% in 2012 to 18 to 20M devices, due to multiple factors – availability of devices across price points (including sub $100), and on multiple handset brands and models with a strong marketing push. Smartphones are expected to form 12% to 14% of total mobile handset sales in 2012. Samsung is expected to continue it’s strong global and India momentum into 2012 and is expected to be a dominant player in 2012. We also expect a strong growth in handset sales in the sub $167 (INR 10,000) segment. This is partly due to Indian handset OEMs potentially launching a number of affordable smartphones on entry level chipsets such as Qualcomm’s MSM 7225A and Mediatek’s MT6573.

With regards to OS wise share, 2012 is expected to be the year of Android dominating the India Smartphone scape. Share of Android is expected to grow significantly to over 50% of the Smartphone market, based on multiple devices being continually launched by both global and Indian handset OEMs. While the Symbian decline is expected to be far more drastic globally, we expect it to still hold a respectable 23.3% share in 2012, based on the strong equity that Nokia has in India. While Symbian S60 devices will cover the low and mid end, Symbian Belle and Windows Phone based devices will cover the high end for Nokia. However, we do not expect Windows Phone to be a major player in 2012 as it will not be available in the low and mid end price ranges, unlike Android.

Other Smartphones trends for 2012 in India:  Emergence of multiple SIM Smartphones – Samsung has already launched Dual-SIM Smartphones such as Galaxy Pro Duos and Wave Y Duos and is expected to launch Dual-SIM capability on it’s more popular lineup such as Galaxy Y and S II. As more India OEMs launch Smartphones, we expect to see more Dual-SIM smartphones in the market through them. We also expect devices that support both GSM and CDMA, especially in high end smartphones.  Global players to capitalize their strengths in India – While OEMs such as Nokia and Blackberry have traumatic global challenges, they are expected to continue to be significant in India given their strong brand presence, distribution network and consumer affinity in India.  Carriers to continue experimenting with contracts for Smartphones – In 2011, MTS launched a Smartphone (HTC Pulse) on contract for the first time with moderate success. This initiative has opened up the potential for other players and we expect a few other carriers to experiment with this model on an opportunistic basis to improve their competitive edge.

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