The Rise of ISIL

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The rise of ISIL and the increasing number of inspiredattacks in the West
Objective
This assessment brings together the most significant trends in global terrorism Identified by ITAC In 2014,

Executive Summary
Terrorism threat to Canada and U.S.
In 2014, Canada and the United States (U.S.) experienced lone-actor, terrorist attacks from extremists who were
inspired by messaging from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and al Qaida (AQ).

Increased levels of terrorism in Western Europe
In 2014, West European countries faced an increasing terrorism threat from inspired Islamist extremists.

AG versus ISIL
The ongoing dispute between AQ and ISIL escalated throughout 2014, following aI-Zawahlris expulsion of ISIL
from AQ. ISIL’s dramatic terntorial gains and subsequent declaration of an Islamic caliphate in June 2014

ISIL.’s Influence gaining ground In Africa
Most African theatres of violent iliad were characterized by political upheaval, relatively low levels of government
presence, and a general absence of public security. Diffusion of the terrorism threat in Africa was further
aggravated by the growing influence of the lSlL.

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ASSESSMENT NOTE
This paper references muitlpLe ITAC reports that remain relevant
It is based on a review of a wide variety of sources

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CONTENT
MESSAGING
Social Media comes of age as a toot for terrorists

Pages 3- 4

CANADA and the UNITED STATES
The growing extremist threat from lone-actor/small scale attacks

Pages 5 -6

WESTERN EUROPE
Extremist travellers, returnees and inspired attacks

Pages 7 -8

ASIA
Sustained counter-terrorism pressure and the growing influence of ISIL

Pages 9 12

MIDDLE EAST
ISIL emerging as centre of gravity for international terrorism

Pages 13- 16

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AFRICA
Terrorist groups adapting to lSlLs challenge to AQa leadership

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MESSAGING
Social Media comes of age as a tool for terronsts

ISIL and AQ social media exploitation
1. OnlIne resources such as
English-language jihadi magazines e.g. Islamlà State of Iraq and The
Levant’s (ISIL) Dabiq and Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula’s (AQAP) Inspire
V

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2014 has seen a rise In the exploitation of social media tools to disseminate extremist messaging and propaganda.

ISIL propaganda and extremist messaging

V

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4. Extremist messaging continues to emphasize a move towards less complex, small scale plots, against
soft targets undertaken by individuals already based In the West.
ISIL and AQAP signature magazines respectively Dabiq and Inspire,

ISIL’s messaging
5.
Military victories on the battlefield, mass executions of enemies, and The beheading of Western hostages
are examples of occasions which provide the video and still images that give ISIL propaganda

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CANADA and the UNITED STATES
The growing extremist threat from Ione-actorlsmall sale attacks
Canada and U.S. targeted in 2014
8. In 2014, Canada and the United States
(U.S.) experienced lone-actor, terrorist
attacks from extremists who were inspired
by messaging from ISIL and AQ.




V

I
Martin Couture-Roulaau

These relatively simpler
attacks are charactensed by less
preparation and planning,

Attack in St-Jean-sur-Rlchelieu: On 2014 10 20, MärdñZ
Cauture-Rouleau drove his car Into three members of the
.Canadian Armed Forces (CAP) in a parking lot ri St-Jean-sur.
Jt1eHeu, Quebec. One soldier was killed. Couture-RouIØaU
fithe scene but was killed by pursuing police after crashing-:
his vehicle 4 kms away.
(TH14!125)

Inspired terrorist attacks in Canada are
the principal terrorism threat to the
country

Michael Zehaf Bibeau
Messaging from both ISIL and
AQ has called for direct attacks In Canada
and the U.S. The two terrorist attacks that
took place in Canada on 2014 10 20 and
2014 10 22 featured lone-actors targeting
urilfomied soldiers and a federal
government ns1ltution.
Both attacks
demonstrated that ISIL has successfully
inspired Individuals to target their
homeland.

Attack in Ottawa: On 2014 10 22 Michael Zehaf Blbeau shot ‘t$
and killed a uniformed soldier standing guard at the National
War Memorial in Ottawa. He then attacked Parliament HIll,
forcing his way into Parliament’s Centre Block before he was
shot and kllled by security guards.
(TH1 41127)

Extremist travellers leave Canada and
U.S.
10. Canada and the U.S. continue to be a
source of exiremist travellers, with
violent jihad in countries hke Syria, Iraq and Somalia.

Canadian and U.S. citizens travelling overseas to wage

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Recruitment at home for jiliad abroad

12.
as 01Apr11 2015, there were
individuals who returned to Canada after travelling abroad
are believed to have been active outside Canada in Islamist
for suspected terrorism-related purposes, Mother
extremist activities, including
in Syria and Iraq.

Simple attacks and undefended targets
15.
The attacks on a Canadian soldier in St—Jean-sur-Richelieu on 2014 10 20 and in Ottawa on
2014 1023 serve as examples.

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WESTERN EUROPE
Extremist travellers,

returnees and

inspired attacks

Terrorist attacks in Western Europe
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There were tour successful ISIL
Inspired lone-actor/small scale attacks in
Western Europe (see text box) and at least
six disrupted plots. One attack in 2014 was
perpetrated by a returnee who fought with
ISIL in Syria.

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Terrorist attacksm Westenppef.44015
.201405 24, Belgium, Brussels ISIL returnee Mehdl
Nemniouche, a French national, attacked.the Jewish Museum,
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2014 12 20, France, Jouó-les-Tours ISIL supporter, French
Burundian, Bertrand Nzohabonayo attacked police officer.


20i4 1221, France, Dijon A man yelled AUahu Akbar” &oye a
car into crowds.
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i2O14 1222, France, Nantes A man yelled AJlahu Akbar” drove
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jO-vn into shoppers.

2Q-1501 02, France, Metz —A man attacked a police officer
• yelling Allahu Akbar”.
Locally..based extremist activity
18. In 2014, West European countries laced
an increasing terrorism threat from inspired
Isiamist extremists.

2015 01 06, Turkey, Istanbul
;.9ked a police station.



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A female suicide bomber

,

‘2Oj 01 07, Frances Paris Brothers, Said and Cherlf KouaØtl,j
with1lnks to ‘AQ in Yemen”, attacked the offices of Charlie
Hebdo


2016 01 07, France, near Paris An indIvIdual shot a jogger
ii The gun was traced to lSlL supporter Amedy Coulibaly


.201501 08, France, Paris —Amedy Coullbaly, an associatofb
• Kouachi brothers, attacked a policewoman.
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Movement of West European extremist
travellers — SyrIa and Iraq
19. West Europeans travelling to Syria and
Iraq to join ISIL as well as AQ affiliate
Jabhat Al-Nusra (JN),

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201501 08, France, Paris
• sing explosives.
201601 09, France, Paris
Jewish store.



Amedy Coulibaly blew up a car
.



Amedy Coulibaly held hostages ifla

20150203, France, Nice Mousse Coulibaly (unrelated to
Amedy) attacked a soldier near a Jewish center.
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During 2014,. the movement of
extremist travellers hi Western Europe to
and from Syria/Iraq continued,
In 2014,
the established travel facilitation networks
along the Turkey-Syria border, continued to
operate

201602 14, Denmark, Copenhagen ISIL supporter Omar
Abdel Hamid El-Hussein attacked polices officers guarding a free
speech event attended by Swedish cartoonist Lars Vllks.


201502 15, Denmark, Copenhagen Omar El-Hussein
attacked security guard and police officers near a Jewish
synagogue.


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Numbers of Western extremist travellers
20. While estimates vary, the bulk of Western extremist travellers are from Europe (Western and Eastern Europe),
including indMduals from Russia.
The anti-ISIL coalition
airstrikes that began in September 2014 have not deterred prospective ISIL fighters from attempting to travel to
Syria.
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Extremist traveller returnees
21. The movement of extremist travellers from Western Europe to Syria and Iraq has been Increasing year on year
since 2011.
the arrests in early 2015 of an iSlL-affihiated group in Belgium, have heighteried concern
in the West of returnees from Syria and Iraq.

22. An example of the returnee threat in
Western Europe was when French
national and Syria returnee Mehdl
Nemmouche conducted an attack on
2014 05 24 at the Jewish Museum in
Brussels,
Belgium.
He
used• a
Kalashnikov rifle, and shot and kUled four
persons.

Significant aflests and cheies In 2014

2014, Belgium & Holland Police in Brussels arrested two
DLltch nationals of Turkish origin a woman and a men m
pñpèction to a plot to target the European Unioñ;U
oImissIon Belgian police conducted a subsequent operation
r
Wetlng an apartment in Brussels while Dutch police condcted
r’a raid in The Hague and seized jihadist material
,,

At the
time of the shooting, he was on a French
terrorist watch-list, but had traveled
through other European countries to
reach Belgium, thus avoiding detection.
He was subsequently arrested and
exiradited to Belgium where he awaits
trial.
Countering the terrorism threat to

Western Europe
23. In 2014, West European authorities
camed out a number of counter-terrorism
(CT) operations. These operations were
primarily directed agaUist suspects with
known or suspected ties to terrorist
groups such as ISIL or who may have
been inspired by ISIL’s messaging to
carry-out attacks In Europe. As a
reflection of the growing terrorist threat to
Europe, between 2013 and 2014 a
number of European countries raised their
domestic threat level

2014 11, Austria: Police in Austria arrested 13 people suspaCte(t
ofr4dicalizliig young people and recruiting them to fight in Syria.
Authorities also seized errorist propaganda materlal.

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.Q

11, UK: British police arrested three suspects during
operations in the London area The suspects were alleged to
.have been seeking to carry out an Imminent” ISIL-Insplred
attack to behead a member of the public.


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2014 11, UK: Four men appeared in court on charges of plotting
to murder police officers or soldiers in London in the name 01:
ISIL
2014 11, Franca A charity accused of being a front for financing

terrOr1sm in Syria was shut down and two of its leaders charged• with financing terrorism,
2014 10, Belgium: Prosecutors laid terrorism charges against 46
members of Sharla4Belgium, a group implicated in radicalization
as well as recruitment of foreign fighters, tundraising, and
facilitation efforts.

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ASIA
Sustained counter-terrorism pressure and the growing Influence of ISIL
PaklstanlAfghanlstan
Impact of Pakistan’s counter-terrorism
operations on AQ activities
24. Counter-terrorism pressure on AQ in
Pakistan Increased in Summer 2014 with
the launch of a large-scale military
ground offensive hi North Waziristan
Agency (NWA).

New AQ affiliate - AQIS
27. In September 2014. AC publicly announced the
formation of a new affiliate organization, Al Qaida In
the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). ACtS was formed
from the amalgamation of a number of smaller
extremist groups In Pakistan

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Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan



Splitting along AQ and ISIL lines

29. In the first 10 months of 2014, almost 4,500 indivIduals were killed by terrorist attacks that occurred across
Pakistan. During 2014, Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (U) was the moat active terrorist group conducting, attacks in
Pakistan with attacks mostly aimed at Pakistani interests. In 2014, UP conducted several high profile attacks,
notably:

a. In June 2014, TTP militants attacked a terminal at Jinnah International Airport in Karachi;
b. In early November 2014, a suicide bomber attacked a check post, at the Wagah international border
crossing (India-Pakistan) in Punjab; this attack was claimed by TTP splinter group .Jamaat uI-Ahrar (,JuA);
c.

In December 2014, sIx TIP terrorists attacked a military-run school (Army Public School and Degree
College) in Peshawar. There were over 140 casualtIes.

Defections from TIP and the Influence of ISIL
31. The UP, an umbrella group of several loosely
allied tribal and regional factions,

TIP leader MulIsh Fazlullah

32. In August 2014, a TIP faction announced the
formation of a break-away group Jamaat ul-Ahrar
(JuA), which aims to establish an Islamic caliphate In
the Indian subcontInent,
Open source reporting
from October 2014, indicated that one of TTP’a central
spokesmen and five TIP leaders had also pledged
allegiance to ISIL. In 2015,

Source: GujfNews

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MIDDLE EAST
ISIL emerging as centre of gravity for international terrorism
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
.
The rise of ISIL in 12 months
44. The expulsion of ISIL from AQ in early 2014 followed a protracted conflIct between extremist groups àñd et the
stage foi’ the mid 2014 declaration of the Caliphate in Syria and Iraq. ISIL’s declaration established a more violent
alternative to the global extremist movement represented by AQ. By the beginning ot,2015,ISII. became the
preeminent terrorist group, in direct competition with AG. ISIL has successfully expañded’lnto’Nqrt) Africa, the
Arabian Peninsula, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and Indonesia by accepting the oaths of aIleLance of several
terrorist groups in these regions.

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1January

ISIL gaIns control of Reqqah

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February

AQ severs ties with ISIL

June
August

ISIL gains control of Mosul
Al-Baghdadl declares the Caliphate, focuses on clear, build and govern strategy...;..
U S begins air strikes against ISIL ISIL murders U S citizen James Foley



October

ISIL starts Kobani campaign



October

ISIL starts gaining support from groups In Africa and the Levont



December

ISIL Inspired extremists plan/execute attacks In Canada, the U.S. and Europe



December

Foreign fighters continue to join in large numbers

July

Extremist travelers and foreign fighters
46. During 2014, the number of foreign fighters entering Syria and Iraq to estimated 19,000 by December, most
joining ISIL, especially after the July 2014 declaration of the Islamic State,

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Lebanon
Hlzballah
62, Hlzballah remains highly supportive of the Assad regime in
Syria. In June 2014, Hlallah began fighting along the
Lebanese border with extremists vAio had crossed from Syria
Into Lebanon.
ISIL moved into northern
Lebanon.

lED events In Lebanon
November 2014

Source

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AFRICA
Terrorist groups adapting to ISIL’s challenge to AQ’s leadership
66. In 2014, In addition to ongoing threats from AQ-affihiated groups èuch àsJ Shabaab(AS)in Somalia and
Kenya; AQ in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and its offshoot, the Al-Murabitoun. battalion, both aqtivó In the Maghreb
and Sahel regions, there was a rise in violence in Nigeria from Boko Haram.(8H), in Egypt from AM, tn Tunisia
from an AQIM battalion and Ansar al Shana in Tunisia (AAS-T) and in Ubys from varoass MS factions These
groups have at times helped each other by exchanging weapons, tactical knowledge, media expeiliac, and fighters.
Most African theatres of violent jihad were characterized by political upheaval, rela elylowJevel ‘of 9ovemment
presence, and a general absence of public security. Diffusion of the terrorism threat Ih’AftlOa’,aS further
aggravated by the growing Influence of the ISIL.
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Somalia Al Shabaab’s iesurgence
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67. AS remained the most prominent terrorist threat In East Africa In 2014. After its military setbacks and losses of
territory at the hands of Ethiopian and AMISOM forces, AS made a strong comeback with an urban terrorism
campaign, carrying out attacks in Somalia and Kenya. The group maintains a core of trained, devoted fighters in
Somalia who regularly attack the Somali government and its international partners.

68. AS planned and carried out the May 2014 attack on Ia ChaumiéreRestaurant in Djibouti, which killed 3 people
and injured 11 more. The attack was intended to target Westerners and put pressure on governments to withdraw
military forces from Somalia.

69. AS remains a threat but also faces considerable challenges. Over the last few years, several key AS figures
have been killed Including AS Emir Bilal Abmed Abdi Godane in September 2014.

The Sahel AQ In the Islamic Maghreb’s continued menace
70. In 2014, despite the ongoing UN Multidimensional integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) the
threat from AQ In the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) remains. AQIM has regained large parts of its former safe haven In
the north
Since May
2014, there have been over 28 attacks, including from improvised explosive devices (IEDS) and rocket attacks, on
UN personnel. In October, In the deadliest attack yet on UN troops In Mali, nine Nigerlen UN peacekeepers were
killed by the MUJAO.


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76. In 2014, Libya continued to attract extremists

Tunisia

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A continued terrorist threat In the Birthplace of the Arab Spring
Tb. J.b.J ech Chambi Mountain I
[ Range
in Tunisia (red and orange
zones), where AQIM Uqbah bin
Nafi Battalion Is predomInantly
located.

Egypt Worsening Security Envnonrnent


80.
Egypts most capable terrorist
group, Ansar Bayt aI-Maqdis (ABM, aka Ansar Jerusalem), carried out a
number of successful attacks in the Sinai and mainland Egypt. These
included the bombing of Cairo police headquarters and a MANPAD

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HANDLING INSTRUCTIONS

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This document is the property of the integrated TerroriSm. Asseesment Centre (ITAC), Prepared by ITAC, it
Is derived from various sources with Informatiofleft tivö.êofthó ate of publication. Itis provided to your
agency/department in confidence and may be further disseminated by your agency/department. those with
appropriate security clearances and appropriate sec
st.ñis to retain the Information. It must not be
reclassified or reused In any way, in whole or In p.rt, NithoutlhecOnsent of the originator.
Any feedback should be directed via Mandrake email to:
Internal Users:
.
External Users:
:- -..
-.
This document constitutes a record which may.besubJecttomdatory exemption under the Access to
Information Act or the Privacy Act The lnformatln or inteIJigencemay also be protected by the provisions of
the Canada Evidence Act The information or Intelligence .mst not be disclosed or used as evidence without
prior consultation wj’J ITAC.
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