The State of Luxury 2010

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The State of Luxury 2010
post recession codes emerge

scenarioDNA ¦ connecting brands to culture

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Luxury

luxury’s codes have evolved over the last two decades.
take away the logo, the licensing and the hubris and ask yourself if you still have a compelling luxury product that will stand up to today’s consumers?

scenarioDNA ¦ connecting brands to culture

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badges lose meaning.
the meaning and status and the power of totems have become more complex.

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access erodes meaning.
over 127 million search results for luxury the reality of new network economics impacts and dilutes meaning.

word losing power - 151m search results last year in April.

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magnates

new luxury archetypes emerge

lilies posse

gordon gekko

purists guilted lilies passport posse brand new heavies the joneses

1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

let’s recap luxury
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once luxury was the realm of the elite. through the decades, its meaning devolved and consumers widened.
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80s greed economics reshapes meaning
“...greed--for lack of a better word--is good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit.
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--Blake, Glengarry Glen Ross, 1992

the joneses stoke aspirations in the 90s
“you drove a Hyundai to get here tonight, I drove an eighty thousand dollar BMW.” (exclusivity is lost)
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counterfeits fueled by shift in value
in the early ‘90s, small artisanal manufacturers were bought by public companies. quarterly profits became the main goal.
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Diane Von Furstenberg

knowledge fuels new luxury
“the most important relationship you have in life is the relationship you have with yourself”
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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

new forces push luxury to seek new codes for relevance.

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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

little did we know we were splurging on borrowed hollow money...
(photo: NYC.andre)

recession reveals fallacies pursuit of excellence (arete) was paramount. the recession has left us acutely aware of and intelligence. such aspiration required effort, discipline the fallacies
of finance and the need for sustainability.
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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

more than half of the growth in global demand for imports is now originating in developing countries, providing export opportunities for both developing and developed economies.

globalization forces new responsibilities
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as global economic growth has begun to slow in tandem with the U.S. economy's woes, there are some positive signs including China, India and other rising economic powers offering alternative poles of growth for the global economy.
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1900s

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recession

post-recession

photo: marshall astor

Prada Marfa in desolate Texas is a site specific, permanent land art project by German artists Elmgreen & Dragset. The structure includes luxury goods from the fall 2005 collection. However, the door cannot be opened.

artists jar mindsets
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photo: marshall in desolate, Marfa, Texas, Elmgreen & Dragset build a Prada shop. inside, astor Prada’s 2005 collection—but the door does not open. it is left to decay.

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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession
currently, the average person in the Emirates puts more demand on the global ecosystem than any other. the United States runs a close second.

green gains its skeptics
consider Dubai. with rapid development comes a need for environmentally conscious initiatives, but the plan to make ‘Dubai Green’ calls into question the viability of the entire project.
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1900s

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recession

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transparency forces new stories
scenarioDNA ¦ connecting brands to culture

Blood, Sweat, and Tears is the name of a new reality show on the BBC where six rich British teenagers are sent off to the third world countries to see and experience the truth that lurks behind the production of their favorite luxury goods.
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1900s

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recession

post-recession

The first time Oprah Winfrey saw the First Lady, before she became the First Lady, wearing J. Crew she went and bought J. Crew stock. Her mix and match of high/low fashion is confirming.

politics as runway
last year in London, as photos surfaced of the First Lady wearing a $298 cream-colored "crystal constellation" cardigan, a shopping frenzy ensued stateside resulting in a 200-person waiting list.
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1900s 1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

1purists

respect icons but seek contemporary themes

2 guilted lilies
absorb culture, lean towards irreverence

not content with leisure, want brand involvement

3 passport posse 4 brand new heavies
old school luxury, conspicuous consumption

four luxury archetypes evolved pursuit of excellence (arete) was paramount. ... as aspiration required effort, discipline and intelligence. such consumers shifted from the aspirations of the 90s to
recent economic uncertainty.
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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

1purists

respect icons but seek contemporary themes understand the process by which an object is crafted. here is where couture thrives.

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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

"Blood Diamond" heightened public awareness about conflict diamonds. the such aspiration required effort, discipline and intelligence. diamond engagement ring has become a victim of its own success with brides-tobe checking out of the diamond race in favor of alternatives.
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the purists of excellence (arete) was paramount. pursuit recast traditions
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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

purists respect a confident pursuit of excellence (arete) was paramount.steady hand when Starwood began talks five years ago about opening a St. Regis Atlanta, it such aspiration required effort,had few luxury players and discipline and intelligence. viewed Atlanta as a good fit because it
headquartered fortune 500 companies.
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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

purists fuel a return paramount. pursuit of excellence (arete) was to craft Buenos Aires artisan Juan effort, discipline and intelligence. such aspiration required Carlos Pallarols takes months to create his handforged pieces. In 2001, he began collaborating with Parisian penmaker ST Dupont.
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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

2 guilted lilies

not content with leisure, want brand involvement.

they want stories and participation with the brands they consume.

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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

guilted lilies seek connections to nature pursuit of excellence (arete) was paramount. 21st century service in a bush-chic setting. In 2002, billionaire Paul Tudor such aspiration required effort, discipline and intelligence. 340,000 Jones embarked on an ambitious conservation project when he leased
acres of Tanzania’s western Serengeti.
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1900s

1980s

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recession

post-recession

guilted lilies shunwas paramount.more a higher price tag, these ostentation able pursuit of excellence (arete)Though they may beseek to affordunderdog luxuries. consumers will Korean automaker Hyundai is taking aim at the popular Lexus and Acura such aspiration 2009 rear-drive Genesis. retailand intelligence.affordably at required effort, discipline prices start relatively sedans with the
$33,000 for the 290-horsepower V-6 version.
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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

3 passport posse

absorb culture, lean towards irreverence.
luxury is a hybrid of personal acquisitions and accomplishments.
an unfolding participation in process as they migrate from city to city, and abroad.

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1900s

1980s

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recession

post-recession

Matthew Williamson

passport posse engage the pursuit of excellence (arete) was paramount. process think the process and use of pattern, print and color which define such aspiration required effort, discipline and intelligence. UK-designer
Matthew Williamson, and underscore his role as creative director at Pucci.
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1900s

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recession

post-recession

passport posse applaud irreverence pursuit of excellence (arete) was paramount. think Schiaparelli’s shoe hat (here discipline and intelligence. such aspiration required effort,as interpreted by Takashima). this luxury
network is all about bringing back the artistes.
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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

passport posse embrace hi/lo synergies pursuit of excellence (arete) was paramount. low-brow virtues fan the flamed cultural curiosity and such aspiration required effort, discipline and intelligence.consumer
involvement, as in The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air x Puma collaboration.
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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

passport posse respect playful themes pursuit of excellence (arete) was paramount. at Suno, even required effort, discipline and intelligence. such aspiration old standbys like plaid look anything but serious
next to the bright zigzags and Ikat prints.
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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

4brand new heavies

old school luxury the last bastions of conspicuous consumption. consumers with newfound wealth. likely to be entrepreneurs fast emerging from BRIC economies.

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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

heavies keep badges alive pursuit of excellence (arete) was paramount. ... as in this Versace emblazoned chopper. such aspiration required effort, discipline and intelligence.
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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

Maybach Landaulet

heavies respond to paramount. pursuit of excellence (arete) was articulation of status legacy does not fly with name alone. century-old German car manufacturer such aspiration gears to focus on the back seat, afterintelligence. most Maybach shifted required effort, discipline and recognizing that
owners are chauffeured.
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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

heavies crave bling paramount. pursuit of excellence (arete) was and price point Vertu bejeweled required concierge service run upwards of $300,000. such aspiration phones witheffort, discipline and intelligence.
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GoldVish known for its diamond encrusted mobile phones over $1 million.
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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

heavies fearless was paramount. the money showing pursuit of excellence (arete) in STAND ON THEIR OWN DIFFUSION LINESHollywood store to sign his signature red "sole" away Christian Louboutin visited his West such aspiration required effort,the plastic forand intelligence.were invited to any shopper willing to put down discipline a pair. customers
for a few hours of champagne and shoe talk.
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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

heavies still seek to paramount. pursuit of excellence (arete) was strut ON THEIR OWN DIFFUSION LINES STAND Jimmy Choo’s required effort, discipline and intelligence. such aspirationZap catwalk sandals with light-up plexi heel and flashing
detail retail for $2495. They were taking pre-orders.
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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

all was not lost over the last decades, some good came:
democratization of luxury/ acquired appreciation for design emerging demands/ something new to dream about

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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

rich & exhausted
a breadth of luxury consumers will soon be fully spent and craving perspective.

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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

a hard look in the mirror
realization: money is not enough. what is: self-perception of increased status

a study by researchers at the University of Warwick and Cardiff University has found that money only makes people happier if it improves their social rank.

photo: stephage

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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

the defensive stance is wearing thin.
we’re slowly waking up. we’re thinking. we’re searching for new ideals.

photo: lisa brewster

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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

but peacocking will fade fast.
flashes of brightness arise out of the tiredness as consumers hold on to last gasps of optimism.

Pretty as a Peacock, c. 1935 Earle Kulp Bergey

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1900s

1980s

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recession

post-recession

word to the wise.
to move forward, we need to look back and understand origins. we’ve lost track of history.

“too much money kills luxury”, said Coco Chanel. she believed women dripping in real jewelry were foolish. today, her words resonate.

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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

greek ideals have new relevance
pursuit of excellence (arete) was paramount. such aspiration required effort, discipline and intelligence.

ancient greek values held “capitalism” (investing money to make more money) in low esteem. it was considered incompatible with active participation in affairs of the polis and unnatural and morally corrupting.
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1900s

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recession

post-recession

power enables change.
the essence of power that luxury affords has been lost. power, for luxury, has turned into an arrogance that exacerbate tensions between rich and poor or secular and religious. the power require to elevate society requires “common sense, dialogue, discretion.” (source: Robb Young, Luxury Society)

"Power is the ability to produce intended effects." --Bertrand Russell, 1938
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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

guides will not trump discovery.
how-to series won’t capture original essence. it squelches innovation and implies conformity.

Lacoste: The Element of Style is a new book that shows its consumers "how to live" and "how to be".--Luxist.com

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1900s

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recession

post-recession

sustainability is as sustainability does.
consumers will be turning things inside out looking for pitfalls and inadequacies in the green message.

good food, not low carbon will fuel billionaire Radhika Oswal’s investment in Otarian, a low carbon eatery.
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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

pushing in a pull world.
as designers gain confidence, freebies won’t guarantee collection status.

furriers have successfully courted young designers by giving them free samples and approaching them through trade groups. Their efforts were appeared on the runway at Chris Benz.
photo: seth wenig/associated press

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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

In Antalya, Turkey, the high-priced Adam & Eve Hotel hosts nightly block parties in its decadent Apple Garden and its million mirror Atrium.

exclusivity tested.
although irresistibly chic, Ibiza-style party hotels go against the grain of exclusive luxury vacation.
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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

purists guilted lilies lilies

brand new heavies passport posse posse

archetypes are polarizing
as we move through the recession, archetypes are polarizing to two hybrids of luxury consumer.
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lilies
transparency
photos: Tor Kristensen / Bespoke.org

posse
perfection

archetypes are polarizing
their combined demands will raise the bar for luxury.
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1900s

1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

post-recession codes
lilies
respect for invention and craft contemporary themes calls for transparency meaningful sustainability
photo: Tor Kristensen / Bespoke.org

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1980s

1990s

recession

post-recession

post-recession codes
posse
absorb new ideas irreverence for tradition unforgiving of faults demands perfection gatekeeper of information will evangelize if pleased
photo: Tor Kristensen / Bespoke.org

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post-recession

all said, we can bring luxury full circle...

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12 for the requirements
1. transformative knowledge 2. stealth sensibility 3. sensorial experiences 4. cultural appreciation 5. empowering artists 6. fluid function
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transformation & relevance of luxury
7. sustainability in context 8. serendipity 9. reasoning 10. distribution 11. risk 12. delight
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connecting brands to culture

photo: ubierna.andres

1.

transformative knowledge

to buy less historically places us lower on the social totem pole.

if we know more, we can make more informed choices and develop collective intelligence.
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scenarioDNA |

Main Entry: stealth Pronunciation: \ˈstelth\ Function: noun Etymology: Middle English stelthe; akin to Old English stelan to steal Date: 13th century 1 a archaic : theft b obsolete : something stolen 2 : the act or action of proceeding furtively, secretly, or imperceptibly 3 : the state of being furtive or unobtrusive

photo: maria teresa colucci

2.

stealth sensibility

nano retro

the strongest permeating force at work is the most silent. no one wants screaming luxury.
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3.

sensorial experiences

Kensington Palace will be rebranded "The Enchanted Palace." The exhibit draws viewers into the lives of past palace residents through moody intense lighting, actors and musicians. (pictured, hall of shadows.)

it’s not enough to look and not touch. we want to be drawn in and inspired.
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4.

cultural appreciation

In a new government plan to improve reading, the cafe at the Hotel Castelar (among others) in Buenos Aires will feature notable books and encourage patrons to read and converse. the first collection will be by Jorge Luis Borges. (source: BBC News)

cultural affinity and appreciation leads to engaging sustainable discourse.
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5.

empowering artists

The dreaming girl by sculptors Sue and Peter Hill of the Eden Project in the UK features plants selected for their calming properties.

artists make us question. they bring vision and foresight. they open our minds to possibilities.
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photo: elfleda

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6.

fluid function

The free “Gilt for iPad” app for the iPad has high-resolution images, “pinch and zoom” technology, quick navigation and an easy shopping cart drag-and-drop feature. It proved immediately successful in generating sales.
(source: wall street journal)

if we expect investment in high-ticket merchandise, merchandise must function ideally from all angles.
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7.

sustainability in context

neuaura shoes do not contain leather, fur, silk, wool, shell, or pearls. no animal by-products are used during manufacturing and/or finishing processes. the brand was recently awarded Brazil’s green seal.

sustainability must be ingrained in the culture. consumers will see through green washing.
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photo: lady dana

serendipity

8.

An online poem by a fan of Lancome's Rosebeauty launched a digital campaign to find her by tapping into the Chinese propensity for crowd-sourcing. Over 100,000 people took part in finding Cherry, the young women who wrote the original poem. (source: adage china)

serendipity allows for participation. there is passion and reward in its quest.
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reasoning

9.

Responsible Wealth, a project of United for a Fair Economy, is a network of over 700 business leaders and wealthy individuals in the top 5% of income and/or wealth in the US who use their voice to advocate for fair taxes and corporate accountability.

reasoning trumps greed.
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distribution

10.

the European Commission has set rules allowing luxury brands to refuse to supply online sellers that lack one or more physical shops, in favor of places where the suppliers’ goods can be touched, smelled, tried, etc.
(source: ny times) 

whether online or offline, suppliers need to control how their products are experienced.
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risk

11.

the Tibetan mastiff has become the latest accessory for the wealthy in China, where pet-owning was once banned by the Communist Party. with many as products of the country's strict one-child policy, they’re happy to indulge their pets. (source: reuters)

risk is about choice and consequence, taking on responsibility.
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delight

12.

undersea restaurant Ithaa at the Hilton Maldives Resort & Spa Rangali Island sits five meters below the surface of the Indian Ocean. to celebrate its fifth anniversary, the 12-seat restaurant will be converted to a private bedroom suite for two.

it’s emotive to do something special that no one else can.
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going forward...
emerging demands fostered by common sense, dialogue, discretion will rise standards across the globe. a new culture of collaboration and globalization will be born.

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Additional Photo credits
http://www.flickr.com/photos/joycake http://www.flickr.com/photos/mmlobster http://www.flickr.com/photos/verosue http://www.flickr.com/photos/robbie

thank you.
Authors: Tim Stock Marie Lena Tupot

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