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Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Area Local Market Report, Third Quarter 2011

Today's Market…
Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth
$180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0
2002 Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3

10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8%

Houston
Price Activity Current Median Home Price (2011 Q3)
1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2011 Q3) 3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2011 Q3) 3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain* 7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* 9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* *Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only

U.S.
$169,267 -4.3% -16.0% -$32,233 -$29,733 $2,267 $729,250 $417,000

Local Trend
Prices are up from a year ago, but price growth is slowing Real estate remains a long-term investment: those who have owned for more than 3 years have seen the equity in their home grow

$159,500 0.4% -0.4% -$700 $22,000 $25,200 $417,000 $271,050 38%

Conforming Loan Limit** FHA Loan Limit

Most buyers in this market have access to government-backed financing

Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio not comparable **Note: the 2009 loan limits for FHA and the GSEs were extended through 2010.

1,000s 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

State Home Sales (Red Line) and Sales Growth
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25%

2002 Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3

Home Sales State Existing Home Sales (2011 Q3 vs 2010 Q3)

Texas 18.4%

U.S.
17.0% The sales level is much higher than a year ago and growing.

Drivers of Local Supply and Demand…
Local Economic Outlook 12-month Job Change (Sep) 12-month Job Change (Aug) 36-month Job Change (Sep) Current Unemployment Rate (Sep) Year-ago Unemployment Rate 1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate

Houston 66,300 63,300 13,800 8.6% 8.3% 2.6%

U.S.
Not Comparable Not Comparable Not Comparable 9.1% 9.6% 0.8% Employment has held up and is on an upward trend Unemployment has risen since the same period last year, but Houston's labor market has been more resilient than the national average Local employment growth is strong compared to other markets

Share of Total Employment by Industry
Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Area #N/A Natural Resour Construction #N/A 3.5%

U.S.
#N/A

7.0% Governmen t Manufacturing 8.8% Other 14.3% Services Trade/Transpo 20.1% 3.7%

Information& Leisure
Hospitality Financial Act 9.1%

1.1% 5.2% 14.7% 12.4% 9.1%

Natural Resources and Mining 91.7 3.5% 182.7 Constructio 228.6 n 7.0% Manufacturi 524.4 ng 8.8%

Resources Natural 0.6% Mining and 0.6% Governmen Constru 0.6% t Manufac8.9% 16.9% Other Services Trade/T 18.9% 4.1% Informa2.0% Leisure & Hospitality Financi 5.7% 10.0%

#N/ANatural

Constructio n 0.6% Manufacturi ng 8.9%

29.6

135.4
383.5 321.9 238.3

Trade/Tran sportation/ Utilities 18.9%

Prof. & Busin Educ. & Heal
Educ. & Leisure Health & Ho Services Other Service 12.4%

Trade/Tran sportation/U tilities 20.1% Information 1.1%
89.5% Financial Activities 5.2%

Profess13.2% Educat 15.3% Leisure10.0% Educational
& Health Other S4.1% Services 15.3% Govern16.9% Information Financial 2.0% Activities 5.7%

Government
#N/A #N/A

3.7% 97 Prof. & Business 372.7 14.3% Services 14.7% #N/A #N/A

#N/A

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
NA NA 10,100 9,700 9,600 NA 7,900 Information Financial Activities

Profession al & Business Services 13.2%

12-month Employment Change by Industry in the Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Area (Sep - 2011) Goods Producing Natural Resources/Mining/Construction Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Service Providing Excluding Government Trade/Transportation/Utilities -1,900 200 17,600 10,800 1,500 5,200 -4,400

Prof. & Business Services Educ. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government

State Economic Activity Index 12-month change (2011 - Sep) 36-month change (2011 - Sep)

Texas 3.2% -4.3%

U.S.
2.8% -2.6% The economy of Texas has outpaced the rest of the nation and improved modestly from last month's 2.96% change

New Housing Construction
Local Fundamentals 12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Sep 2011

Houston 21,578

U.S.
not comparable

The current level of construction is 41.4% below the long-term average

8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits

36,829

Reduced construction will limit new supply to the market, allowing demand not comparable to catch up with the inventory more quickly -10.3% Construction is down from last year, but appears to have bottomed.

Single-Family Housing Permits (Sep 2011) 12-month sum vs. a year ago

-7.4%

Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits
(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures now have a strong impact on inventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or foreclosure, place downward pressure on the median home prices.

State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average
(U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)

6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%

Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association

Foreclosures by Type
Monthly Market Data August 2011

Houston
3.1% 89.2% 7.6% 3.1% 89.2 % 4.9 % 7.6%

U.S.
90.9% 4.9% 90.9 % 3.2%
3.15 %

Market Share:
Prime (blue), Alt-A (green), and Subprime (red)

4.1 % The Houston market has been able to 4.1% contain both subprime and prime lending issues The local prime rate fell modestly from March of last year Compared to the national average, today's local prime rate is low The subprime foreclosure rate jumped compared to March of last year Locally, today's foreclosure rate is low relative to the national average The local alt-A rate eased slightly relative to March of last year The August rate for Houston is low compared to the national average

PRIME:
Foreclosure + REO Rate

1.50 %
Mar-11

1.39 %

1.4%

3.43 % Mar-11

Aug-11 1.5%

3.4% Aug-11 18.9%

SUBPRIME:
Foreclosure + REO Rate

9.33 % Mar-11

10.53 % Aug-11

10.5%
18.1 5%

18.8 8%

9.3%

Mar-11

18.2% Aug-11

ALT-A:
Foreclosure + REO Rate

5.20 % Mar-11

5.1%
5.13 % Aug-11

15.2 1% Mar-11

15.2%
15.1 8%

5.2%

15.2% Aug-11

The "foreclosure + REO rate" is the number of mortgages, by metro area, that are either in the foreclosure process or have completed the foreclosure process and are owned by banks divided by the total number of mortgages for that area. Source: First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance data

Prime Foreclosures and Delinquencies in Process
Monthly Market Data August 2011

Houston
10.7% 11.7% 11.5%
11.71 % 10.66 % 11.45 %

U.S.
26.6% 27.8% 27.5%
27.5 2% Aug-10 27.8 0% 26.6 0% Aug-11

Prime: 60-day Delinquent

Aug-10

Mar-11

Aug-11

Mar-11

The local 60-day delinquency rate fell over the 6-month period ending in August suggesting that 90-day delinquencies will decline in the near future

3.4%

3.8%
3.75 % Mar-11

3.8%

5.8%
6.25 %

6.2%
6.24 %

6.3%
5.82 % Aug-11

Prime: 90-day Delinquent

3.82 % Aug-10

3.40 % Aug-11

The 90-day delinquency rate in Houston fell over the 6-month period ending in August

Aug-10

Mar-11

1.4%

1.5%
1.50 %

1.5%

3.2%
3.17 % Aug-10

3.4%
3.43 %

Prime: Foreclosure + REO Rate

1.52 %

1.39 %

Aug-10

Mar-11

Aug-11

Mar-11

3.2% The decline of both the 60 and 90-day delinquency rates over the most recent 3.15 6-month period suggests a decline in % the local foreclosure rate in the near Aug-11 future.

Source: First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance data

Affordability
Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income
(Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income
Ratio for 2010 Ratio for 2011 Q3 Historical Average

Houston 7.8% 7.5% 10.3%

U.S.
15.1% 13.9% 22.0% Historically strong and an improvement over the second quarter of 2011 More affordable than most markets

Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income
(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3

Median Home Price to Income
Ratio for 2010 Ratio for 2011 Q3 Historical Average

Houston 1.3 1.3 1.3

U.S.
2.4 2.3 2.7 The price-to-income ratio has fallen and is below the historical average Affordable compared to most markets

Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income
(Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

The Mortgage Market
30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield
280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0
2006 Q3 Q1 2007 Q3 Q1 2008 Q3 Q1 2009 Q3 Q1 2010 Q3 Q1 2011 Q3

7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%

Spread (left axis)

30-Year FRM (Right axis)

10-Year Treasury Bond (Right Axis)

After a soft second quarter, the economy was shocked by three events that came together nearly within the same weak; a deadlock in Congress and near miss on the budget extension, renewed concerns about the Greek debt crisis impacting the US, and a sharp, downward revision to 1st and 2nd quarter GDP estimates. The result was a 15% or more correction in the equity indexes, which sent investors into US Treasuries seeking a risk free asset. The yield on the 10-year Treasury reached near record lows and the 30-year FRM followed suit, slipping under 4% multiple times. However, the gap between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year fixed opened up as the risk to MBS investors of increased refinancing rose, creating resistance for falling mortgage rates. Fuel prices eased in the 3rd quarter and are likely to do so through the fall. At the same time there is little core inflation pressure, which combined with the Federal Reserve’s “operation twist” that is intended to flatten the yield curve putting downward pressure on long-term rates, should sustain a nearrecord low mortgage rate environment through the fall.

A Closer Look…Local Rental Vacancy Rates
U.S. (blue) and Local (red) Rental Vacancy Rates
20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Rental Vacancy Rate
Ratio for 2010 Ratio for 2011 Q3 Historical Average

Texas 16.2% 17.1% 16.2%

U.S.
10.2% 9.8% 8.6% Data for Texas Not Available

#N/A

Geographic Coverage for this Report
The Houston area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the U.S. Government. The official coverage area includes the following counties: Austin County, Brazoria County, Chambers County, Fort Bend County, Galveston County, Harris County, Liberty County, Montgomery County, San Jacinto County, and Waller County
More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg_statpolicy/

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