World Cup 2014

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World Cup 2014
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World Cup 2014
by
Kevin Laverick
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World Cup 2014
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LEGAL NOTICE
Disclaimer & Terms of Use


This e-book has been put together for educational purposes only; it is not a guarantee that you will make a
profit from football. Traders who have the correct mindset can make a very good living from football, but
trading decisions must be made with a view to long-term profits and steady bank growth rather than a hope to
"get rich quick". This book shares a trading strategy which can be highly successful, but if you decide to trade
using the ideas contained in this manual you are taking full responsibility for your own actions. Your success or
income level cannot be guaranteed.

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Contents

Welcome ................................................................................................................................................................. 4
Groups .................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Bets and Trades ...................................................................................................................................................... 6
Group Qualifiers ..................................................................................................................................................... 7
Golden Boot .......................................................................................................................................................... 10
Top European Team.............................................................................................................................................. 12
Top African Team .................................................................................................................................................. 13
Top South American Team ................................................................................................................................... 13
Highest Scoring Group .......................................................................................................................................... 14
Lowest Scoring Group ........................................................................................................................................... 15
Winner .................................................................................................................................................................. 16



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World Cup 2014
Copyright © 2014 goalprofits.com. All rights reserved
Welcome


Hi there Goal Profits members and welcome to a Bonus Book detailing the World Cup 2014.

The biggest Football Tournament in the World starts in Brazil on June 12th with the opening game
Brazil v Croatia in Sao Paulo and ends on July 13th in the famous Maracana stadium in Rio. Thirty
two teams have qualified for the Tournament, four from the Asian Confederation, four from the
Central and North American Confederation, six from the South American Confederation, five from
the African Confederation and thirteen from the European Confederation.

They will battle it out over the month long Tournament in 12 stadiums across the country, from
Manaus in the Amazon Rain Forest in the North West of the country to Porto Alegre, the birthplace
of Ronaldinho, the famous Brazilian forward, in the South East.

It will be fascinating to see how the European teams cope with the heat and humidity in Brazil and
how they can adapt their game to suit the local conditions which will certainly favour the South
American sextet.

The 32 teams are split into 8 Groups with 4 teams in each Group. There will be 3 rounds of Group
games after which the top 2 in each Group will progress to the knockout phase of the Tournament.

We will look at various Markets to see how you can benefit from Trading this Tournament, so let the
battle commence and let’s hope for a great Tournament and may the best team win.

Kevin





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Groups


Group A Group B
Brazil Spain
Croatia Netherlands
Mexico Chile
Cameroon Australia

Group C Group D
Colombia Uruguay
Greece Costa Rica
Ivory Coast England
Japan Italy

Group E Group F
Switzerland Argentina
Ecuador Bosnia
France Iran
Honduras Nigeria

Group G Group H
Germany Belgium
Portugal Algeria
Ghana Russia
USA S Korea



Those are the Groups that will contest the World Cup 2014. It is our job now to pick out some
meaningful Bets/Trades from that little lot to turn it into an enjoyable and profitable Tournament for
us.


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Bets and Trades


The Bets and Trades I will be looking at are as follows:-


 Group Qualifiers

 Golden Boot

 Top European Team

 Top African Team

 Top South American Team

 Highest Scoring Group

 Lowest Scoring Group

 Winner





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Group Qualifiers


Group A - the Group with the hosts in and it is without question that Brazil will qualify, the Group
could not be simpler for them, the only thing to work out is who will finish second in the Group. Will
it be Croatia, Mexico or Cameroon. It is going to be difficult for Croatia, they are missing Mandzukic
in the opener against Brazil and then face daunting games in the heat and humidity in Recife and
Manaus. For Cameroon it will depend on their first game, against Mexico. The problem for them is
that their front two Webo and Eto’o are not even regular starters for their respective club sides,
Fenerbahce and Chelsea. The likelihood is that unless they win their opener, they will be going out.
Mexico had massive problems qualifying and only scraped through by the skin of their teeth. Vela
has refused to play for them and the defence is a bit creaky. They do have players with good
European experience though and a couple of home players who have caught the eye up front. I
expect them to pip Cameroon and Croatia for second place.

Suggest Brazil/Mexico as a Straight Forecast Bet @ 3.0



Group B - the World Cup holders are in this Group and they will be desperate to win the Group and
so avoid Brazil the round of the last 16. So I am taking Spain to win the Group, again the question is
who will finish second. It is a tough call between the Netherlands and Chile, whilst Australia are the
outsiders. Spain play the Netherlands in their first game and this time round the Netherlands have a
fairly young and inexperienced side, so up against the World Champions is a bit of an ask. The crunch
will come in the game against Chile (I am writing Australia off in this Group). The game against Chile
is the second game for the Netherlands and this will decide who finishes second to Spain. The Dutch
are missing Strootman and the defence is not experienced against the class of sides they will be
meeting here, so I am going for Chile. They demolished England in November at Wembley, they have
plenty of goals about them (though they do also concede). I have personally Backed Chile @ 50/1 for
the Tournament, hoping for a Trade at some point.

Suggest Spain/Chile as a Straight Forecast Bet @ 4.5



Group C - the South American team Colombia have a good draw in this Group, even though it is not
clear if Falcao will be ready in time, after his cruciate ligament injury playing for Monaco. Again the
real teaser is who will finish second, and it is a toss up between Ivory Coast, Japan and Greece.
Greece do lack real quality and rely more on a team performance to get them through. That may not
be enough here. The decider will come in the very first game, Ivory Coast v Japan. Ivory Coast with
plenty of experience and very talented players (though they are knocking on a bit now) against
Japan, who have plenty of European stars but a very dodgy defence. A tough call.

Suggest Colombia/Japan as a Straight Forecast Bet @ 5.5

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Group D - England’s Group and as some are calling it, the Group of Death. There is always one and
unfortunately England appear to have caught it this time. England, Italy and Uruguay will fight it out
for the two places. I am discounting Costa Rica, as the 3 other teams will have to target a win against
the so called minnows. Uruguay have some ageing stars but in Suarez and Cavani they have two of
the best strikers in the World. Midfield is a concern but the team do tend to shine when big
Tournaments come around. The two European teams, England and Italy face each other first and the
outcome will decide their fate. With it being the first game I am sure both teams would take a point
and that may well happen. England’s golden generation has come and gone and the new one is still
emerging. Italy on the other hand have bags of experience and plenty of talent throughout the
squad. This is going to be a very tight Group, maybe lots of draws but in the end it will come to who
has the technical ability to turn a draw into a win.

Suggest Italy/Uruguay as a Straight Forecast @ 5.0




Group E - in this Group we have two European teams who are favourites to go through, France and
Switzerland. Honduras are the rank outsiders and Ecuador will battle it out to take one of the two
top places. Unfortunately for Ecuador they just do not have the players to trouble the two
Europeans, the only thing going for them are the conditions. Honduras are just not up to a World
Cup and will be going home after the Group games.

Suggest Switzerland/France as a Straight Forecast @ 5.5




Group F - another one of the favourites in this Group, and can anyone see Argentina not winning
this Group, not me, that is for certain. So who will finish second? The Super Eagles of Nigeria are the
African Champions but tend to struggle at the really big competitions. Iran will set themselves up to
defend and be difficult to break down, but that will be the limit of their expectations. Bosnia have
two quality forwards in Dzeko and Ibisevic and will hope that these two can help them make it to the
knockout rounds.

Suggest Argentina/Bosnia as a Straight Forecast @ 2.4






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Group G - this could also be classed as a Group of Death, with two heavyweight Europeans,
Germany and Portugal, alongside Ghana and the USA. Every game here is going to be a fight to the
death, with points at a premium. Germany play Portugal first and again I am sure they would both
take a point, so that they could live to fight on. Ghana play the USA in the other opener and it will be
imperative for one of them to win to give them a chance of qualification, as the Europeans will be
targeting them both for wins. Germany may be short on goal power this time round, whilst Ronaldo
will need to come good in the Finals at last for them to make progress.

Suggest Portugal/Germany as a Straight Forecast @ 5.0




Group H - the final Group sees an emerging European force, Belgium, look to set the seal on their
own golden generation. They have come on in leaps and bounds in the last 4 years, and look a strong
unit throughout. Russia did beat Portugal in their qualifying Group but seem to have gone backwards
since. Little firepower up front and not enough guile in midfield may hamper them. South Korea
struggled to qualify but a new manager has come in to galvanise the youthful set up. Algeria failed to
win a match in their last 2 World Cups and their youngsters do not have enough experience to cope
with the pressures here. It is between Russia and South Korea for second place.

Suggest Belgium/South Korea as a Straight Forecast @ 6.0




That is the Groups sorted, we will now have a look at the Golden Boot.

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Golden Boot


The Golden Boot is given to the top goal scorer at the Tournament. It is a Market that will change
game by game, especially if your chosen pick scores a hat-trick in the first game. So there are good
opportunities to Trade in this Market.

To be able to pick out the Golden Boot winner you really do need to be looking for at team that is
going to get to the semi-finals at least, as obviously the more games they play the more chances
they have of scoring a goal.

So the starting point is identifying maybe 6 teams that have the capability of making the semis. The
top 4 in the Winner Market are Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Spain, so we will take those 4 to start
with, and add in both Portugal and Italy.

Italy are not renowned for their goal scoring exploits and are much more comfortable going for a 1-0
win, that suits their style, though they have been playing a little more adventurous of late. For
Portugal to go deep into the competition they really need Ronaldo to perform this time round. He is
the World Player of the Year, so maybe this is his time, so he has to be one contender. He has yet to
perform on the biggest stage of all though.



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Currently Messi is the favourite, available at 9.0, whilst the best of the rest is available at 15.0, so
quite a gap there, and it is one that we should exploit. Everyone knows about Messi, so plans will be
in place for him, and Argentina have other top strikers, so the goals may well be shared out. If that is
case we need to look elsewhere for Value.

Although Germany are not certain to start the Tournament with an out and out striker, things may
alter once it does get going and the one thing you can say is that they always perform on the big
stage. If they do decide to go with a point of attack striker it may well be worth siding with Thomas
Muller for a bit of Value at odds of 34.0. Brazil have to come into the equation in their home World
Cup, and whilst their main protagonist Fred is by no means an assured striker, he will certainly get
plenty of chances provided by Neymar and Oscar. So at odds of 29.0 there is plenty of Trading
ability. Finally we must not overlook the Champions Spain. Diego Costa has turned his back on his
native Brazil and decided to play for Spain instead, so it would give him great satisfaction to turn up
trumps for Spain here at odds of 26.0.

So for 3 good Value Bets for the Golden Boot I would go for:-

Muller @ 34.0

Fred @ 29.0

Costa @ 26.0


If any of them do start well you will have the opportunity of Trading out for a nice profit at those
odds.

As for the Player of the Tournament, if Brazil are going to win it, then Neymar will have to play
extremely well and even though he is favourite for the Player of the Tournament I would go for a
Straight Win Bet on:-

Neymar as Player of the Tournament @ 9.0 (Bet Victor)

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Top European Team


Although there are 13 European Teams in the competition I will limit this to 8 of them.

England - their players are either too old or too young. The defence is pretty shocking, Gerrard and
Lampard cannot hack it in midfield at this level and the forwards are in the main misfiring at this
level. They will not make it out of the Group stages.

France - often implode on the big stage, could it happen again? Possibly. Deschamps will have his
work cut out to keep the lid on the bottle. If he can, then Pogba can make a big impact, but they all
have temperament worries.

Netherlands - the loss of Strootman is a major worry, plus the lack of experience in defence.
However, the main worry is that if they get out of the Group they are likely to meet Brazil in the last
16.

Italy - could go a long way in the Tournament, a good mix of experience and youth, Balotelli is the
one ingredient that could go either way for them. He may be brilliant or he may be moody,
whichever he is will determine the outcome for Italy.

Portugal - will the real Cristiano Ronaldo please stand up, if he does it will be the first time he has in
a big Tournament and will help them go deep into the Finals, if he doesn’t show up again, then they
will struggle to get out of the Group.

Belgium - a real dilemma, will they bomb or will they show the world what they are capable of.
Certainly they have a squad full of talent but are they ready for a World Cup in hostile conditions.

Germany - they will turn up ok but do they have the players to fulfil their ambitions. The defence can
be shaky and do they really know which way they will attack? With or without a main striker? Who
knows but we will soon see.

Spain - the World Champions. Will tiki-taki rule again or is its’ reign over? Plenty of experience
throughout but I think maybe the world has caught onto their way of playing and it may well catch
them out this time.


Well it is a really tricky Market. We know that Germany, Spain and Italy will perform to their
capabilities, but for the rest we are not too sure. Germany at 3.5 and Spain at 4.0 are probably too
short, so for a Value price I will go for the Belgians to come good in this Tournament and be the Top
European Team at odds of 9.0.


Suggest Belgium as Top European Team @ 9.0

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Top African Team

I really fear that an African nation will not get out of the Groups this time round. To be honest they
have always under-performed at competitions outside of their continent, and I am sure it will
happen again this time, even though the conditions will suit them down to the ground. I will look at
3 of them here.

Ivory Coast - the Elephants do at least have a good draw this time, where before they have usually
been drawn in the Group of Death, here they are pitted against Colombia, Japan and Greece. Their
first game is against Japan and this will decide their fate, if they win they have every chance of
getting out of the Group and that is all they need to do to win this market.

Ghana - the luck of the draw eluded Ghana as they have to face Germany and Portugal, so are very
unlikely to progress. However, it is a tough Group and all teams will drop points at some stage, but it
is unlikely they will emerge from what is probably the toughest of Groups.

Nigeria - they may start well against Iran but then face Bosnia and Argentina. The crunch will come
against Bosnia, and I am pretty sure the overall strength of the Bosnian team will overcome Nigeria,
so they will not progress.

Suggest Ivory Coast as the Top African Team @ 2.5



Top South American Team

The obvious candidates here are Brazil and Argentina, bit at odds of 2.2 and 2.75 respectively, they
are a bit cramped for my liking. So I will look at 3 others instead in an attempt to find some Value.

Colombia - I have already got them down to get out of Group C as winners, and they are a talented
bunch, but they could be playing Italy in the last 16, or Uruguay, and either of those will pose big
problems for Colombia.

Uruguay - they have to get out of a very tough Group first, facing Italy and England, so they are no
certainties to do that, and of course could face Colombia then, so it is a tough ask for a team that
relies so heavily on Suarez and Cavani.

Chile - a very accomplished side who took England apart only recently at Wembley. Their defence is
their weakest part, but because I have already Backed them to win the Tournament (Trading
opportunity hopefully) I will discount them for this Market.


Suggest Uruguay for Top South American Team @ 15.0

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Highest Scoring Group


Which of the 8 Groups do we think we will have most goals during the Group phase? What we need
here are teams that are both offensively good but defensively poor. In other words we can expect
them to score and concede in equal amounts.

World Cup Finals are not noted for their goal scoring feats. More often than not in the early games
of the Group phase you will get a surfeit of 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 games. All I do is to check out teams’
qualifying games and see what their goal scoring/conceding record was like.

The two Groups with the best scoring/conceding record during qualifying were Groups B and G. In
Group B we have Spain, Holland and Chile, who will all be targeting big wins against Australia, so this
would be helpful. Also Holland and Chile do score plenty, Chile also concede plenty and in this
Tournament Holland may also start shipping a few goals.

In Group G we have Germany and Portugal, also the USA and Ghana. This is a really tough Group, so
may well come down to a few draws, which is just what you don’t want when looking for the Highest
Scoring Group. So although their records are pretty good, averaging 3.2 goals per game for the 4 of
them during the qualifying games I will leave this Group alone.


Suggest Backing Group B as the Highest Scoring Group @ 6.0 (Bet 365)

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Lowest Scoring Group


The exact opposite of the previous Market. We are looking for the Group that is likely to have the
fewest goals in the Group Phase. So ideally we need a Group that is going to be tight and very closely
fought. Which Group comes into this category?

We also need teams that are more capable defensively than they are in an attacking sense. Teams
that are likely to take a 0-0, rather than push on for goals. In this sense I will discount Groups B and
G, as we did identify them as possible winners of the Group with most goals. I am also discounting
the England Group, as teams in there did have a decent record in qualifying, which was almost as
good as Group B teams.

That then just leaves us with 5 Groups, A, C, E, F and H. With the attacking talent available to both
Brazil and Argentina I will discard those Groups too. That now leaves us with Groups C, E and H to
look at.

Group E consists of France and Switzerland from Europe. France are very capable of scoring goals
and also conceding, though Switzerland are a bit tighter. However, with 2 teams from the same
continent that is not ideal, I would much rather have all 4 teams from a different federation, as they
will take time to work out their opponents. Group H has teams from 3 different continents, but one
of them is Belgium who could go a long way here.

Group C though has teams from 4 different federations, so would fit ideally in my reasoning.
Colombia, Greece, Ivory Coast and Japan. Apart from Colombia, they will find scoring difficult, so I
would plump for this Group.

Suggest Back Group C as the Lowest Scoring Group @ 4.3 (Paddy Power)

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Winner


History has shown us that the winner will come from one of the favourites, and quite often that is
the Home country. So Brazil will have to be one of the contenders. There is no doubt about their
ability and their goal scoring prowess. One question mark would come from their defence though.
Even with Thiago Silva, arguably the best Centre Back in the world, there are question marks about
the others going walkabout quite often and that could cost them eventually.

Spain, the current World Champions, may be on the wane but may just hang on in there for a fourth
major title on the bounce. They have had difficulty filling the striker role, but with Diego Costa
choosing them over Brazil that may well be taken care of now. The one question is do teams know
how to play them now? If teams can stifle their midfield supremacy they will struggle.

Argentina are capable, but they have been capable so many times before and failed. They will get
through the Group with ease but may be found wanting with their defence later on in the
Tournament.

Germany are maybe on the slide a little bit and are not sure at all about their attack at the moment,
defensively though they are solid and so will be difficult to beat but I am not sure they will be able to
score the goals they will need.

I’m afraid England have no chance, at this point in time I am not even sure they have a truly world
class player in their side. Holland will not rise to the occasion this time either. Italy may do well and
get to the semis and should not be totally dismissed, Balotelli will either be a saviour or a demon to
them, time will tell which one he is this time round.

I am not going for any of the immediate favourites though I will give you two teams that you may be
able to Trade later on. I have already told you that I have Backed Chile @ 50/1 with a view to them
getting through the Group and hopefully not getting Brazil in the last 16, then they will be very
Tradeable.

The other team I am going for is Portugal. If Ronaldo gives it his best shot they will have a real
chance and @ 33/1 they are worth a bit of Value and I for one will be taking some of that. This could
well be the time for Cristiano, the newly crowned World Player of the Year.


Suggest Backing Chile and Portugal to Win the World Cup @ 50/1 and 33/1




That is it from me, I do hope you all enjoy the World Cup and let’s hope for plenty of goals, then at
least we might be able to do a bit of Trading. Kevin

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